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I know its hard to believe, but > Dow 20000 is coming within weeks if not within days. There might be a sudden fake rally but going long right now hoping for Dow 28000 (or something ridiculous) is suicidal. Let's see if there are any contrarians.

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I've no idea how this is going to play out, just when you think it can't go any lower...it does as the bad news keeps coming out. The big question is when does it turn? When the news changes to countries opening back up, travel restrictions being lifted etc?

Like all market crashes we will look back on this in 5/10 years and think what a great time to buy (at the bottom) but when is that?

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Just now, andysinclair said:

Til when?? Don't forget to post on here when we've reached the bottom... 😁

 

Don't fret about when ... follow the trend and wait for a confirmed reversal signal.  It's waaaaaaay too early to be buying right now.  I'm utterly astonished that anyone would be buying ...

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Just now, dmedin said:

 

Don't fret about when ... follow the trend and wait for a confirmed reversal signal.  It's waaaaaaay too early to be buying right now.  I'm utterly astonished that anyone would be buying ...

I agree, definitely way too early...

Here's a S&P500 chart covering the dotcom and 2008 crashes. Waiting for a few green months before buying seems to be like a simple signal. You miss out on some gains but overall you manage to buy "near" the bottom.

Anybody got any other ideas/signals? I don't want to miss this one!

sp500.thumb.PNG.739a4b83e5345630275224ef1fd12719.PNG

 

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1 hour ago, andysinclair said:

I agree, definitely way too early...

Here's a S&P500 chart covering the dotcom and 2008 crashes. Waiting for a few green months before buying seems to be like a simple signal. You miss out on some gains but overall you manage to buy "near" the bottom.

Anybody got any other ideas/signals? I don't want to miss this one!

sp500.thumb.PNG.739a4b83e5345630275224ef1fd12719.PNG

 

 

 

Captain Sensible has a plan:

 

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2 hours ago, andysinclair said:

The big question is when does it turn? When the news changes to countries opening back up, travel restrictions being lifted etc?

 

When most people are wiped out of their trading accounts and surrendered.

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So here we are, the 3rd week of March. The drop, the fake rally....I don't think we are done yet with visiting the lows.

My assessment was below Dow 20000 sometime this month. How low below 20k is still up in the air. This is still very very bearish right now...which means there is still serious money to be made.

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If people cannot use the current volatility to make money, then the chances are they will never make any significant sums in trading.

The low is coming guys but also the fake rallies. I think I have a figure low to expect. Will share it once the probability is significant enough to be sure.

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6 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

If people cannot use the current volatility to make money, then the chances are they will never make any significant sums in trading.

Practice makes perfect but the last couple of weeks have definitely been far better than the last several months...

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What people are calling a fake rally - well traders are exiting March contract rolling to June - that's what you're currently seeing. And you may not be aware that some brokers have increased their daily margin levels to that of full overnight margin requirements. So that essentially prevents less funded retail players out of the equation. At the same time those day traders will have to close out their positions before end of day and most will close out at cash close - that will only lead to bigger moves and potential gaps. We really want to take this down to 2015/16 highs have been wanting to do that since Jan 2018 but trend said higher- these fake rallies are backtesting levels that were missed going up to the all time highs are why we bounced at those levels. The drop that gave us Dec 2018 lows was already taken care off since March 2018 - so when we came back down to around late Aug 2019 it was a perfect storm setup a stop run down. Why its been a bearish market since Jan 2018 - others will say need to drop 20-30% but no it was setting up a long time before and old school prop traders came out and stepped on it.

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I have a preliminary number for the Dow bottom...and it is not good. I think the number is too extreme for most to digest.

 

Remember I said that most accounts to be wiped out and pretty much everyone to surrender before the rise? I was not joking.

Edited by HPbrand
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All I would say for any of you guys open to my suggestions:

Fund your account sufficiently.

Close all positions at the end of every trading day or don't use too much leverage if keeping positions open overnight.

It is almost too likely to expect too big a jump/drop in prices and the markets will halt to trap victims before trying to hit us with an even bigger surprise.

Don't get trapped by getting too greedy and chasing the markets.

I don't even want to say the extreme low number because even I find it hard to believe. I hope my estimation is wrong 😨

 

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

:(

If we all play this game right for the next several weeks, we can all afford to at least upgrade all our toys....and that includes our girlfriends. 😀

Depending on account size, small/big fortunes are waiting for us.

Count us full time traders as very lucky. I'm worried for my immediate families stuck with businesses, wiped out investments and endless bills waiting for them.

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