Covid and the Economy

[Caseynotes]

Journalist and broadcaster;  

Neil Clark  @NeilClark66

' My inside source says that there will be no significant easing of restrictions until July at the earliest. Govt mentioning Easter as they need to take backbenchers with them & want public compliance.'

 

Meanwhile member of German equivalent of SAGE resigns as the whole process has become less medical and more political. 

'Aigner finds it scandalous that on the basis of a more than subjective, in his opinion unscientific and only superficial assessment, the tightening of the lockdown from the "wavebreaker" to the "Knallhart variant" was decided.'

Wissenschaftler verlässt Leopoldina – wegen „Befeuerung der Panikmache von Politik und Medien“ – my|altnews – beta

 

And you know everything is falling apart when the pro bono lawyers start stepping in - PCR Claims Are Us.  

GOOD, about time too.

[Caseynotes]

" The problem with PCR testing and why it must end now. "

 

[Caseynotes]

Brilliant ONS web page, you enter your post code and see just how few are the actual covid deaths in your area for this fake 'second wave' and the reason you are currently sitting in lockdown.

Bear in mind too that over half will be false positives so half of them probably died of something else anyway.

Shame they don't also include the 100 deaths a day caused by denial of health service *, that would make a sweet counterpoint and highlight the complete and total incompetence of our politicians.

* one of the irrefutable stats that came thick and fast in Dr Clare Craig's excellent 20 min interview linked in the post above.

Deaths involving COVID-19 - Interactive map - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

 

More ONS data, all-cause deaths 1990 - 2020. Remember that this year's total includes 30,000 non-covid excess deaths caused by denial of health service.

 

 

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[Caseynotes]

MSM and the Unions are pushing the fake news that children are too dangerous to be allowed back in school and besides too many are now in hospital anyway. 

Hospital consultants queuing up to say it's just not true.

 

 

Also a new push on MSM claiming asymptomatic spread of covid despite many research papers finding no evidence. One of the most recent ...

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis | Global Health | JAMA Network Open | JAMA Network

 

 

 

meanwhile in amongst a sea of palpable lies the occasional island of truth ...

Total yearly death rates 2006 - 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

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[Caseynotes]

US govt CDC data. US total deaths up only fractionally in 2020, death rate remains at 0.9% as per the previous 3 years.

 

[Caseynotes]

Many countries now posting end of year deaths data and it's obvious that 2020 was a bad year for flu type deaths but not something we haven't seen many times before. The reaction this time though has been excessive in the extreme and much more destructive than the virus. Worse still is that there will clearly be no end to this self inflicted catastrophe.

The UK stands out has having made monumental mistakes greatest of which was allowing people to die in order to save the NHS which was never actually 'threatened' at all (eg Nightingale hospitals never used). The NHS coped with equal sized spikes in 1999 and 2000 and would have done so again. But now of course the NHS, like the schools, have no intension of ever returning to 'normal'.

 

Meanwhile, just one aspect of the 'forever after' legacy of this insanity, a new study on mask wearing in schools in Germany.

"First results of a Germany-wide registry mask in 25.930 children." Impairments were reported by 68% of the parents - irritability 60% - headache 53% - difficulty concentrating 50% - less happiness 49% - malaise 42% - impaired learning 38% - fatigue 37%

SecondOpinion  @DaFeid

Corona_children_studies_Co-Ki_First_results_of_a_G.pdf (2020news.de)

 

But but but masks and lockdowns SAVE LIVES!!! 

The data says different. Currently over 25 research papers published with evidence lockdowns don't work, none that prove they do. And as for masks ...

[Caseynotes]

Hahaha, 

NEW TOUGHER RESTICTIONS COMING BECAUSE ... er ... oh, the new SOUTH AFRICAN strain.

Do you really still not see how this works yet?? 

 

Sun Politics  @SunPolitics

6m

Lockdown 3 can't be ruled out to tackle Covid spread & Hancock 'incredibly worried' about South African strain

[Caseynotes]

oh,

Robert Peston  @Peston

The statistics that make school closures “inevitable” and a full national lockdown very likely (in a week or so) itv.com/news/2021-01-0…

 

'The statistics' er ... yeah, right, the ones produced by the (not fit for purpose) PCR test? 

Reminder that hospital admissions and deaths from flu type illnesses is at normal levels for the time of year.

But wait, the PCR test has a history of creating pseudo epidemics, who knew? 🤷‍♀️ (well the medical establishment actually).

NYT article from 2007.

Faith in Quick Test Leads to Epidemic That Wasn’t - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

"At Dartmouth, when the first suspect pertussis cases emerged and the P.C.R. test showed pertussis, doctors believed it. The results seem completely consistent with the patients’ symptoms.

“That’s how the whole thing got started,” Dr. Kirkland said. Then the doctors decided to test people who did not have severe coughing."

 

Sound familiar?

 

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Edited January 4, 2021 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

FOLLOW THE MONEY

List of SAGE members with their fingers in the pie. Spoiler Alert: it's practically all of them.

 

Pathologists recently pointed out that during the first wave in April Deaths closely mirrored Cases but that relationship completely broke down after the introduction of mass testing asymptomatics.

It's unlikely Drs are suddenly misdiagnosing Deaths so the problem must lie with the Cases data.

The medical 'experts' in SAGE must be aware of the history of the PCR test and the ease with which it has triggered pseudo epidemics in the past (see NYT article linked in last post).

Makes you wonder why they don't seem to have considered the possibility in any of their reports.

 

 

 

 

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[Caseynotes]

Remember why you're in Lockdown? No neither can I.

PHE data;

"week 52 no statistically significant increase in excess all-cause mortality by week of death above the 2 z-score threshold was seen overall."

All-cause deaths declining in normal winter seasonal pattern.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

oh,

talkRADIO  @talkRADIO

Dr Layla McCay, NHS Confederation director, confirms to Julia that the hospital figures for "Covid patients" include patients who are not being treated for Covid but have simply tested positive while being treated for something else.

 

[Caseynotes]

oh, -  lines becoming blurred, - goalposts continually being shifted, still - at least now you're getting used to the never ending rolling lockdowns so moving forward onto the Great Reset agenda won't be so traumatic I guess. 🤷‍♀️

Marty Walsh  @MartyForBoston

We cannot fully recover from COVID-19 without taking meaningful action on climate change. Both crises hit people of color hardest and first. Both depend on us listening to scientists and prioritizing public health. Both demand action — now.

[Caseynotes]

Excess deaths non-covid England, 20 Mar 2020 - 04 Dec 2020, most likely due to denial of health care;

At Home             26,250

At Care Home     5,695

Total over          31,000

PHE and ONS data.

[redfeathered]

Keep up the good work Casey

[Caseynotes]

16 hours ago, redfeathered said:

Keep up the good work Casey

👍

[Caseynotes]

Johnson and Witty on the telly again with their scarrrry charts.

Let's look at some others; 

very discerning this new variant, despite being in all other regions for a long time now it's sticking London and the south east, must be attracted to the high house prices.

or

the testing procedures in labs across the country are a total mess.

I wonder which it could be?

 

Scary cases numbers ...

 

... not being transmitted into call outs, admissions or deaths.

 

So it must either be a chirpy happy little virus just pranking everyone,

or

the testing procedures in labs across the country are a total mess

I wonder which it could be?

 

Latest News – Lockdown Sceptics

 

 Enjoy your lockdown, we might give you a short break come July then restart again next Autumn. 👍

 

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[Provaton]

42 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

... not being transmitted into call outs, admissions or deaths.

 

This is just admissions via A&E. Most hospital admissions do not come via A&E.

In the same report COVID-19 admissions towards end of Dec. via A&E are approx. 300 per day

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948470/EDSSSBulletin2020wk52.pdf

However, overall hospital admission for COVID-19 around the same time are around 3000 per day:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Therefore A&E admissions are accounting for only 10% of COVID-19 total hospital admissions.

It is incorrect to say that case increase is not being reflected in hospital admissions (COVID-19 hospital admissions below):

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

[Caseynotes]

On 24/03/2020 at 11:19, Caseynotes said:

👀 don't forget you are basically currently under house arrest as ordered by our glorious leader 👀

admissions always increase under 'winter pressures' every year. The key is, is the current year greater than average and by your own linked fact sheet the answer is no.

There is no baseline for Covid specifically because this is it's first year but Covid is also listed as an Acute Respiratory Infection and, as expected, acute respiratory infections were increasing, but is still below the baseline.

[Provaton]

20 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

admissions always increase under 'winter pressures' every year. The key is, is the current year greater than average and by your own linked fact sheet the answer is no.

 

I was simply pointing out that your previous post was wrong.

You claimed that rising cases were not being reflected in hospital admissions. They clearly are, just not via A&E.

[Caseynotes]

26 minutes ago, Provaton said:

 

I was simply pointing out that your previous post was wrong.

You claimed that rising cases were not being reflected in hospital admissions. They clearly are, just not via A&E.

But hospital admissions are not up (not above normal for this time of year), but 'covid cases' are way up.

Covid labelling is up and the labelling is a function of the faulty PCR test.

If the PCR testing was giving genuine results then all-cause  admissions and all-cause deaths would also be way up over average, they are not.

The only possible explanation is mislabelling/misdiagnosis of covid as a result of faulty testing.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

Greggs .

'From a £108 million profit to a £15 million loss, through absolutely no fault of their own. 820 people the innocent victims of the government's policy.'

Small businesses totally destroyed ✔️ mediums next.

"As such, the pandemic is not a reason for Greggs to be regarded as the premium stock that it was in 2019 and whilst a vaccine will, hopefully bring some relief for Greggs and wider society, the legacy of Coronavirus upon society, its ways of living and working, works against Greggs' prevailing business model to us."

Greggs forecasts £15m loss as sales decline slows | share and stock market news from Hargreaves Lansdown (hl.co.uk)

 

[Provaton]

22 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

But hospital admissions are not up (not above normal for this time of year), but 'covid cases' are way up.

Can you post the source for this? I can't find any official data on general hospital admissions versus historic.

[Caseynotes]

8 minutes ago, Provaton said:

Can you post the source for this? I can't find any official data on general hospital admissions versus historic.

what in particular general admissions, covid cases, ICU occupancy?

ICU Dec end vs 3 year average was posted just recently.

[Provaton]

5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

what in particular general admissions, covid cases, ICU occupancy?

ICU Dec end vs 3 year average was posted just recently.

That's very misleading as there are 20% more ICU beds in 2020 than 2019 (see footnote on your chart). We also don't know how many beds were available in 2017 or 2018. It's comparing one day in 2020 versus the monthly average for the past 3 years.

This is one of the worst charts I have ever seen and believe me I've seen a lot!

[Caseynotes]

26 minutes ago, Provaton said:

That's very misleading as there are 20% more ICU beds in 2020 than 2019 (see footnote on your chart). We also don't know how many beds were available in 2017 or 2018. It's comparing one day in 2020 versus the monthly average for the past 3 years.

This is one of the worst charts I have ever seen and believe me I've seen a lot!

the chart was created in response to the suggestion that hospitals and specifically ICU's were being overwhelmed when in fact they were not and were in line with the previous 3 year average.

Dec 20th was the latest data set available (and still is).

As nearly all respiratory infection deaths occur in hospital so the mortality figures are able to give a year on year comparison, with the dominant flu strain for each year, up to Dec 20th.

 

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Edited January 6, 2021 by Caseynotes

[Provaton]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

the chart was created in response to the suggestion that hospitals and specifically ICU's were being overwhelmed when in fact they were not and were in line with the previous 3 year average.

Dec 20th was the latest data set available (and still is)

I never suggested that hospitals or ICUs were being overwhelmed.

Firstly, I pointed out that you were wrong to say that the increase in cases was not leading to an increase in hospital admissions.

Then I pointed out that your chart for ICU capacity was highly misleading.

You don't seem to be reading carefully any of my responses and are just ignoring any feedback on any of your data/charts. I think I will back away from this thread as it is obviously your personal outlet for anything COVID related that suits your agenda.

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, Provaton said:

I never suggested that hospitals or ICUs were being overwhelmed.

Firstly, I pointed out that you were wrong to say that the increase in cases was not leading to an increase in hospital admissions.

Then I pointed out that your chart for ICU capacity was highly misleading.

You don't seem to be reading carefully any of my responses and are just ignoring any feedback on any of your data/charts. I think I will back away from this thread as it is obviously your personal outlet for anything COVID related that suits your agenda.

increase in covid labelled cases were not leading to increased hospital admissions and deaths, as stated previously they did in the first wave but not this second (fake) wave. The current increase happens every year at this time and the numbers are in line with previous years so blatantly nothing to do with covid, if it was related to covid cases the numbers would above the average not below it.

The chart did indeed dispel the fake news that covid patients were overwhelming ICU, they just weren't.

I gave you feedback, your own linked data showed you were wrong in your conclusions.

 

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[Provaton]

22 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

he current increase happens every year at this time and the numbers are in line with previous years so blatantly nothing to do with covid, if it was related to covid cases the numbers would above the average not below it.

These are the ONS figures. How are they in line with previous years?

(note below, the last week is misleading due to public holidays):

24 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

The chart did indeed dispel the fake news that covid patients were overwhelming ICU, they just weren't.

But the chart is misleading as I have already stated.

25 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I gave you feedback, your own linked data showed you were wrong in your conclusions.

I didn't draw any conclusions, I was just showing that increasing cases are leading to more hospital (not necessarily A&E) admissions.

[Caseynotes]

24 minutes ago, Provaton said:

I didn't draw any conclusions, I was just showing that increasing cases are leading to more hospital (not necessarily A&E) admissions.

missing the point, there is an explosion of new case numbers since the beginning of Dec but only the usual seasonal increase in admissions and deaths. These don't sit together, there is clearly something wrong with one of the data sets.

New data today;

London cases, explosive rise continues ...

But calls to 999 for Covid like symptoms ... er, minimal.

 

reports of Covid-like symptoms that users of the ZOE app send in each day,  ... er, flat.

There is clearly a major problem with the testing data.

I refer again to the PCR's known history for triggering pseudo epidemics. See NYT article link posted above.

The (natural) immunity deniers are pretending that the cases numbers are correct but they just can't be.

You can only catch covid (test +ive)  if you have no immunity. If you have no immunity you will get sick as in the first wave and this is just not happening at all. 

 

Antibody Status and Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Health Care Workers | NEJM

 

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[Provaton]

22 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

missing the point, there is an explosion of new case numbers since the beginning of Dec but only the usual seasonal increase in admissions and deaths.

My point was that case numbers are feeding into hospital admissions. I have no idea whether hospital (NOT A&E) admissions are above or below seasonal averages - I can't find the official data.

I then criticised your ICU chart which you never really responded to. It is very misleading.

I then show ONS charts that demonstrate a clear above trend increase in deaths (above 5 year averages) and you just respond with some chart from an app and some chart about 999 calls.

We are going round in circles....