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Trade wars escalate; political risks spread; don't trust volatility readings - DailyFX Key Themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
That took a dramatic turn two days later when US President Trump contradicted the leaks of an impending compromise and deal by stating clearly that the United States would raise the tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese imports that were being levied 10 percent to an even more punitive 25 percent. True to his word, the President ratcheted up the trade war between the world’s two largest individual economies.
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JamesIG,Post in Earnings Calendar
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
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JamesIG,Dividend Adjustments 13 May - 20 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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JamesIG,The tariffs get hiked: APAC brief 13 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Markets (probably) saw it coming: It’s an unhelpful cliché, that one. However, market-moves, ex-post or not, are often chalked up to such a dynamic. It’s one of those helpful mental models to make sense of the madness of financial markets day-to-day. Regardless, it’s ostensibly what financial markets have done in this instance; giving solace to the bulls and bolstering risk-appetite. Fundamentally, the global equity map was a rich-shade of green after the end of Friday’s trade. The S&P500, for one, closed 0.37 per cent higher, CSI300 lifted a remarkable 3.63 per cent, and SPI Futures are indicating a 29 point jump this morning.
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MaxIG,More volatility looks likely - APAC brief 10 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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MaxIG,Trade-headlines: APAC brief 9 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Trump administration claims a deal is afoot: In another episode of “will-they-or-won’t they”, probably more befitting of a 90s sit-com plot-line rather high-stakes global diplomacy, the leaks provided to the press from the Trump Administration were rather constructive, and far less belligerent than those received at the start of the week. The conversation began with a Tweet overnight from US President Trump, announcing to the market that the Chinese delegation “are coming to the US to make a deal”. Those comments were promptly backed up by Trump advisor Sarah Sanders who announced that the administration had received word from the Chinese that they were ready to make a deal.
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MaxIG,Post in Gold Heading For 1276.61
WallStFoxy posted a post in a topic,
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JamesIG,Stocks sell-off in Europe and the US: APAC brief 8 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Trade-war risk raises questions about fundamentals: It’s a part of why markets have behaved (quite) edgy overnight: trade-related news, and its all-important impact on market fundamentals, has proven had to quantify and predict. The last time trade-tensions were this high, commentators were wrangling with what the material impacts of the trade war would be. Would it derail global growth? How big of an impact would it have on inflation? What might it do to corporate earnings? There were few sufficient answers to these quandaries, and the trade-problem seemed to disappear as US-Sino relations improved last year. They’ll return to the fore now, with market participants no closer to and answer now than then.
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MaxIG,Soyabean Oil
Guest CODY posted a topic in Commodities,
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JamesIG,View 'Percentage' scale on IG charts
JamesIG posted a blog entry in IG Product Updates,
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JamesIG,Post in Dr Copper shows the way for stocks
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
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JamesIG,Post in Indices
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
"Another dip down after US market close on basically what was confirmation of Trump's weekend tweets of a tariff increase being imposed on Friday. This is inline with Bannons comments in the interview posted in this thread last week, and is said to be a response to China attempting to renegotiate past agreements."
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JamesIG,US trade showed greater equanimity: APAC brief - 7 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
US trade showed greater equanimity: Wall Street was closed when this information became public. However, during US trade, the S&P500 progressively climbed over night, after gapping considerably at its open. On any other day, one would suggest that the action seen in US equities overnight was negative: the S&P500 is down just shy of 0.5 per cent, with market breadth a lowly 26 per cent. But considering the circumstances, along with lead handed to US traders from Europe and Asia, the price action ought to be viewed with a silver lining. The buyers in the market still seem to outweigh the sellers in the big picture, for now.
Volatility is re-awoken: Volatility has spiked and remains elevated globally. That dynamic may linger for some time yet, too. Arguably, measures of volatility were mispriced anyway, with the VIX trading as low as 11 up until only recently. It’s at 15 now, after lifting above 19 at stages yesterday. The dust will settle this morning in Asia’s trade, despite this morning’s new trade-war developments. So much is being portrayed in futures markets: our ASX200 for one, after shedding 0.82 per cent in rapid fashion in yesterday’s trade, will regain 25 points at today’s open, according to the SPI Futures contract.
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MaxIG,A good end to last week; a rough start to this week: APAC brief 6 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
US NFPs another “just right” print: Beginning with the good news for risk-assets: US Non-Farm Payrolls figures were met with a swell of bullishness on Friday night. After Thursday morning’s “less-dovish-than-expected” US Federal Reserve meeting, at which that central bank emphasized its belief disinflationary pressure within the US economy were “transitory”, traders had their focus-fixed on NFPs for signs that this bias may be true.
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MaxIG,Gold Silver Ratio
Guest TheDudeLondon posted a question in IG Chart Support - Charts, MT4 and PRT,
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JamesIG,Post in Brent Crude is following my roadmap
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
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JamesIG,Stocks fall as markets adjust US rate expectations: APAC brief 3 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The necessity of a pullback in US stocks: It’d be of little surprise to any clued-up investor or trader as to why the markets’ pull back has transpired. Leading into yesterday’s US Fed meeting, the risk was widely called, and very well telegraphed by pundits. There was a sense US interest rate expectations weren’t on par with reality. But the short-term vagaries of market psychology drove rational folk to buy into the market, chasing momentum, after the S&P500 hit its all-time highs. The giddiness is over now, and what is being witnessed is a sensible recalibrating of market participants’ positions, more aligned with current market fundamentals.
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MaxIG,A night loaded with information: APAC brief - 2 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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MaxIG,APAC brief - 1 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Chinese economic numbers disappoint: The big news in the Asia region yesterday was China’s highly anticipated manufacturing PMI numbers. Recall: it’s been this data-point that has been the centre of fears about China’s economic slowdown – and has been used as the barometer for policy makers success in re-stimulating the Middle Kingdom’s economic activity. For one, yesterday’s print was underwhelming. Anticipated to print at 50.5, it came in at 50.1, stoking concerns that manufacturing in China could be slipping back towards a “contractionary” condition – that is, a print below 50, and forecasts a potential slip in activity in the broader Chinese economy.
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MaxIG,Fed rate decision; trade wars versus earnings; Dollar, Nasdaq and Oil breaks - DailyFX Key Themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
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JamesIG,APAC brief - 30 April
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Momentum picking-up in US equities? There remains a general reluctance from market participants (to use an American idiom) to drink the Kool-Aid in this market. The fundamentals, though solid-enough, don’t seem to justify it entirely. Valuations aren’t stretched, but they are largely as attractive as they are due to discount factors, rather than true earnings growth. Nevertheless, perceptions are shifting, with some of that FOMO-money, long sitting on the sidelines in this rally, apparently making its way into US equities. The great momentum play stocks, are exhibiting some of the behaviour they did during last-years run-up, suggesting a growing exuberance in the market.
US tech playing catch-up: As one with a clear enough memory may recall, the centre of last year’s flow chasing rallies and busts was the US tech-sector. Perhaps remarkably, and reassuringly for the bulls in the market, although valuations across the S&P500 has crept towards levels reminiscent of October last year, valuations in tech stocks have so far lagged the broader market, this time around. It’s a state of affairs that’s rapidly changing, but using the NASDAQ as the barometer, valuations in US tech, at 35:1 price-to-earnings, is still well below the eye-watering 48:1 and 53:1 P/E ratios registered in October 2018 and December 2017.
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MaxIG,Dividend Adjustments 29 Apr - 6 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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JamesIG,APAC brief 29 April
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
US economy in a mixed state: The news flow, naturally and rightly, focused on the headline figure: against an expectation of a 2.2 per cent print, it came-in at a robust 3.2 per cent, reversing (apparently) a multi-month decline. The underpinning driver of the strength was in the exports and inventories component of the data, which greatly exceeded expectations. However, for market participants, there were some far more significant details in the fine-print to drive market action. Consumption was much weaker than expected, adding to concerns that the US consumer may be displaying some late-cycle behaviour; while the price-growth component revealed softening price pressures within the US economy.
S&P500 rallies as US Treasury yields and USD fall: It’s for this combination of reasons that US stocks rallied, and the US Dollar and US Treasury yields fell, throughout Friday’s North American session. The S&P500 put in a solid performance, on heightened activity, as the confluence of better than expected earnings, stronger than expected economic growth, lower bond yields, and a weaker currency bolstered equities.
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MaxIG,Amazon's Profits More Than Double in First Quarter - EMEA Brief 26 Apr
Guest JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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Guest,A mixed day for global stocks: APAC brief 26 Apr
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
ASX200 seemingly to follow suit: Given the mixed lead delivered by Wall Street (and that of Asian markets yesterday, for that matter) SPI Futures are pointing to a slim 3-point gain for the ASX200 this morning. Two trading days in a row like that which was experienced on Wednesday may be difficult to come by, especially given the lack of a clear catalyst, for now. Perhaps its slightly academic, but the question for many now is how long this rally for the ASX200 can last. With new 11-year highs made, technical levels become difficult to ascertain. However, one useful guide may be the index’s multi-year trend channel: it suggests there remains room for the ASX200 to test higher levels from here.
Wednesday’s CPI numbers: To jump back slightly to Wednesday’s trade, local market participants had their attention firmly fixed on Australian CPI numbers and that data’s implications for the AUD and RBA monetary policy. After a considerable miss last week in New Zealand’s CPI numbers, traders were wary as to whether comparable disinflation was emerging within the Australian economy. These suspicions proved valid: the numbers greatly underwhelmed: inflation printed flat on a quarterly basis, taking the year-on-year figure to 1.3 per cent.
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