Our Picks
Top content from across the community, hand-picked by us.
Post-Fed; yield curve inversion; another reset in the Brexit timeline - DailyFX Key Themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
"Except for fixed income traders and economists, the yield curve is rarely mentioned in polite trader conversation or in the mainstream financial media. Its implications are too wonky for most as it can be difficult to draw impact to the average traders’ portfolio and given the considerable time lag between its movements and capital market response.
Yet, when it comes to its most popular signal – that of a possible recession signal – the structure of duration risk suddenly becomes as commonplace a talking point as NFPs."
Yet, when it comes to its most popular signal – that of a possible recession signal – the structure of duration risk suddenly becomes as commonplace a talking point as NFPs."
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JamesIG,
MPs Vote to Take Control of Brexit Process - EMEA Brief 26 Mar
Guest IGAaronC posted a blog entry in Market News,
In the latest round of voting in the House of Commons, MP’s voted to set up a series of votes on Wednesday to see which approach to Brexit has the most support. Later, am amendment on whether another extension could be requested if no progress is made on a deal by the 5th of April.
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Guest,
APAC brief 26 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Markets trade-off Friday overhang: Markets traded in something of a vacuum Monday. The themes driving price action were more-or-less those that had determined activity to end last week. The effects of this were pronounced in the Asian session, but much less so in Europe and North America. It stands to reason: Asian markets were still to digest Friday night’s abysmal European PMI figures. That data’s impact is still rippling through the market. Anxieties about global growth and the likelihood for a global recession is the topic of the day. But the material losses stemming from these concerns, though broad-based, have been limited overnight. Wall Street is down but bouncing; European stocks were down; while futures contracts for Asian markets are mixed.
Risk-off generally prevails: Fear is demonstrably higher. On balance, safety was generally sought on Monday. In something of a bittersweet development, the VIX has pulled of its lows, to trade above 16, as traders reprice volatility and risk. In the broader G10 currency complex, the Yen has been led the pack, though its rally has steadied, and it is currently shuffling around the 110-handle. Investment grade credit spreads have widened notably, as speculation about slower growth has fanned-fear regarding the massive US corporate debt burden. And finally, the overnight-drop in the US Dollar, combined with the ubiquitous disappearance of safe-yielding assets the world-over, has pushed gold prices to $US1322 per ounce.
Risk-off generally prevails: Fear is demonstrably higher. On balance, safety was generally sought on Monday. In something of a bittersweet development, the VIX has pulled of its lows, to trade above 16, as traders reprice volatility and risk. In the broader G10 currency complex, the Yen has been led the pack, though its rally has steadied, and it is currently shuffling around the 110-handle. Investment grade credit spreads have widened notably, as speculation about slower growth has fanned-fear regarding the massive US corporate debt burden. And finally, the overnight-drop in the US Dollar, combined with the ubiquitous disappearance of safe-yielding assets the world-over, has pushed gold prices to $US1322 per ounce.
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MaxIG,
Post in US Indices Short - the big one!
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
Technical trader? Get an insight into one Community members opinion and submit your own thoughts to continue the conversation.:
"Interesting week of price action. SP500 and Nasdaq make higher highs to match the previous level of the Dow (Fib 88% zone) but the Dow itself makes a lower high. FTSE100 & Dax make higher highs too but Nikkei and Russell 2000 have tracked similarly to the Dow."
"Interesting week of price action. SP500 and Nasdaq make higher highs to match the previous level of the Dow (Fib 88% zone) but the Dow itself makes a lower high. FTSE100 & Dax make higher highs too but Nikkei and Russell 2000 have tracked similarly to the Dow."
Picked By
JamesIG,
Post in Indices
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
Kick off your trading day by getting a good understanding and update of what happened last week, with comentry on Community from other members:
"Weekly charts and an interesting Friday. Red weekly bars all round, it was all going good til Friday though Dax started heading down on Thursday with very poor PMIs. Then on Friday US PMIs were down on expectations though still in positive territory, and by mid-day the treasury yield curve inversion breaking news and the selling continued as longs built up over the week were exited before the weekend."
"Weekly charts and an interesting Friday. Red weekly bars all round, it was all going good til Friday though Dax started heading down on Thursday with very poor PMIs. Then on Friday US PMIs were down on expectations though still in positive territory, and by mid-day the treasury yield curve inversion breaking news and the selling continued as longs built up over the week were exited before the weekend."
Picked By
JamesIG,
Asian Equities Sell-Off; Oil Plunges - EMEA Brief 25 Mar
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Shares in Asia fell more than 2% amid growing fears that a recession is on the horizon, Japan's Topix was impacted the most as the index dropped 2.5% at the close. The Hang Seng, ASX 200 and the Shanghai Composite followed and all fell by at least 1%.
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GeorgeIG,
Dividend Adjustments 25 Mar - 1 Apr
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25 Mar 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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Picked By
JamesIG,
APAC brief 25 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Global growth the primary issue right now: The monumental tug-of war between improving financial conditions and deteriorating economic conditions continues. On Friday, it was the latter that took home the points, if only this time around. Both variables truly sit diametrically opposed, and as far as market participants are concerned, which force will prevail remains speculative. It’s written into the mixed-messages markets have been signalling in the last several weeks. It must be said, with the end of last week’s trade, such discrepancies are becoming less pronounced. The dominating concern pertains to the outlook for global economic growth. The world economy’s health is looking worse than previously imagined, and the re-introduction of dovish rhetoric from global central bankers is proving an inadequate remedy.
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MaxIG,
Brexit to be postponed until May, if MPs approve a deal next week- EMEA Brief 22 Mar
Guest KatherineIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
EU agrees to postpone Brexit until 22 May if MPs approve a deal next week, otherwise the UK will leave by 12 April, a much shorter deadline
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Guest,
Displaying markets on screen from two accounts
D600 posted a question in IG Technical Support - Platform and App Help,
Get your questions answered on Community: "How can I display markets from two different accounts at the same time on screen?" Search the forum, or put your questions to other Community users and IG Community Moderators.
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Picked By
JamesIG,
Are we on the verge of a No-Deal Brexit? - EMEA Brief 21 Mar
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The EU has indicated that Theresa May needs to get backing from parliament on her Brexit deal before they agree to delay the UK's withdrawal from the EU. The Prime Minister is heading to Brussels today for the European Council meeting to try to force an extension in order to avoid a no-deal scenario.
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JamesIG,
APAC brief - 21 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Market action proves it again: this market hinges on the Fed: The US Fed has proven itself as the most important game in town for traders. The FOMC met this morning, and lo-and-behold: the dovish Fed has proven more dovish than previously thought; the patient Fed has proven more patient that previously thought. Interest rates have remained on hold, but everyone knew that was to be the case today. It was about the dot-plots, the neutral-rate, the economic projections, and the balance sheet run-off. On all accounts, the Fed has downgraded their views on the outlook. And boy, have markets responded. The S&P500 has proven its major-sensitivity to FOMC policy and whipsawed alongside a fall in US Treasury yields, as traders price-in rate cuts from the Fed in the future.
The US Dollar sends some asset classes into a tizz: The US Dollar has tumbled across the board consequently, pushing gold prices higher. The Australian Dollar, even for all its current unattractiveness, has burst higher, to be trading back toward the 0.7150 mark. Commodity prices, especially those of thriving industrial metals, have also rallied courtesy of the weaker greenback. Emerging market currencies are collectively stronger, too. This is all coming because traders are more-or-less betting that the Fed is at the end of its hiking cycle, and financial conditions will not be constricted by policy-maker intervention. Relatively cheap money will continue to flow, as yields remain depressed, and allow for the (sometimes wonton) risk-taking conditions that markets have grown used to in the past decade.
The US Dollar sends some asset classes into a tizz: The US Dollar has tumbled across the board consequently, pushing gold prices higher. The Australian Dollar, even for all its current unattractiveness, has burst higher, to be trading back toward the 0.7150 mark. Commodity prices, especially those of thriving industrial metals, have also rallied courtesy of the weaker greenback. Emerging market currencies are collectively stronger, too. This is all coming because traders are more-or-less betting that the Fed is at the end of its hiking cycle, and financial conditions will not be constricted by policy-maker intervention. Relatively cheap money will continue to flow, as yields remain depressed, and allow for the (sometimes wonton) risk-taking conditions that markets have grown used to in the past decade.
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Picked By
MaxIG,
APAC brief 20 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Another trade-war headline downs sentiment: There’s some news floating through the wires that sentiment has taken a hit overnight courtesy of some unfavourable trade-war headlines. It’s been reported that Chinese officials aren’t co-operating with their US counterparts, as it applies to certain sensitive elements of trade-negotiations. The S&P500, which had been developing some intraday momentum prior to the release, has retraced throughout trade, consequent to the news. It’s closed flat for the day, but despite this fall, moves in rates and bond markets suggest the fundamentals currently remain the same. The all-important balance between financial conditions and growth expectations is still there, ultimately supporting the bullishly inclined, as markets now prepare for tomorrow morning’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
The unresolvable issues: It’s perhaps an assumption alone, but the (very vague) report leaked to the market about trade negotiations surely pertains to one of the well-understood, seemingly intractable issues embroiling the US and China. Those, at its core, unrelated to economics, but to strategic, and somewhat philosophical differences. These are intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and Chinese military posturing in the Asian region – especially the South China Sea. These differences are relevant because they boil down to brutal power-politics, and an essential clash of ideologies. This isn’t to suggest a trade-deal, and future bilateral cooperation can’t exist between both parties; but that whatever deal is struck, it’s unlikely to put an end to geopolitical tensions.
The unresolvable issues: It’s perhaps an assumption alone, but the (very vague) report leaked to the market about trade negotiations surely pertains to one of the well-understood, seemingly intractable issues embroiling the US and China. Those, at its core, unrelated to economics, but to strategic, and somewhat philosophical differences. These are intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and Chinese military posturing in the Asian region – especially the South China Sea. These differences are relevant because they boil down to brutal power-politics, and an essential clash of ideologies. This isn’t to suggest a trade-deal, and future bilateral cooperation can’t exist between both parties; but that whatever deal is struck, it’s unlikely to put an end to geopolitical tensions.
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MaxIG,
Debenhams / Mike Ashley
Guest Debbers posted a topic in Shares and ETFs,
Join the discussion: "It seems likely to me that what will actually happen here is that Mike Ashley will bid, because aside from anything else, the House of Fraser is not of critical size without combining with Debenhams and is losing money heavily.
As Mr Ashley does not have access to enough luxury brands, so he is having to fill the House of Fraser stores with Sports Direct stock which is badly weakening the House of Fraser brand. He needs to combine Debenhams with the House of Fraser fairly urgently I would say, especially now that Debenhams has signed off the Li + Fung deal which promises a pipeline of decent quality items into its stores."
As Mr Ashley does not have access to enough luxury brands, so he is having to fill the House of Fraser stores with Sports Direct stock which is badly weakening the House of Fraser brand. He needs to combine Debenhams with the House of Fraser fairly urgently I would say, especially now that Debenhams has signed off the Li + Fung deal which promises a pipeline of decent quality items into its stores."
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JamesIG,
Lyft Seeks $23bn IPO Valuation - EMEA Brief 19 March
Guest JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Lyft, the ride-hailing company and one of Uber's main competitors, has begun its investor roadshow to pitch its Nasdaq listing as it looks to raise $2bn at a valuation of around $23bn. The company suggested a price range between $62 and $68 per share in its filing to the SEC on Monday, and will use the ticker symbol LYFT when it begins trading. This is a first indication of what ride sharing companies could be worth in public markets as we await Uber's IPO in the coming months.
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Guest,
Dividend Adjustments 18 Mar - 25 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 18 Mar 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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JamesIG,
APAC brief 19 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Markets trade thin ahead of central bank risks: It’s said that money makes the world go around. And given central bankers control the money of the world, it is they who decide when the turning starts and stops. Described this way, central bankers role in the economy sounds Bond-villain-esque. That’s entirely unfair of course – only fringe-dwellers would suggest they are so malevolent. But recent history, based on experiential evidence, suggests that when it comes to financial markets, the actions of central bankers take primacy over all other considerations. This phenomenon must be a transient thing – a part of some other historical process. All high priests eventually lose their power. For now, though, it feels the age of the central-banker has reached its epoch, with markets dutifully obeying their rule.
Markets pace the margins: The reason for the foregoing expatiation is that financial markets, owing to a dearth of economic and corporate data, have traded quietly in anticipation of several key central bank meetings this week. Naturally, the biggest of them all is Thursday morning’s US Federal Reserve meeting. In preparation for the event, traders are pacing the markets’ fringes. Risk appetite on Wall Street is still rather well supported. Volumes are below average but having broken key-resistance at 2815 on Friday, the clearing of that technical level has invited in some buyers. Rates markets are largely unchanged, although US bond yields have ticked slightly higher across the board, while the US Dollar is relatively steady, albeit well off its recent highs.
Markets pace the margins: The reason for the foregoing expatiation is that financial markets, owing to a dearth of economic and corporate data, have traded quietly in anticipation of several key central bank meetings this week. Naturally, the biggest of them all is Thursday morning’s US Federal Reserve meeting. In preparation for the event, traders are pacing the markets’ fringes. Risk appetite on Wall Street is still rather well supported. Volumes are below average but having broken key-resistance at 2815 on Friday, the clearing of that technical level has invited in some buyers. Rates markets are largely unchanged, although US bond yields have ticked slightly higher across the board, while the US Dollar is relatively steady, albeit well off its recent highs.
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MaxIG,
Flowless rally - APAC brief 18 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A flowless rally: It’s being dubbed the “flowless rally”. Equities are ticking higher, but without the fundamental buying-support one might assume. This is especially so when considering the milestone achieved on Wall Street on Friday. Finally, the 2815 resistance level has tumbled, and the bulls have cautiously, quietly rejoiced. There are yellow flags popping up here and there, however, and that is making participants wary. It goes back to this “flowless rally” business: the latest leg of global stocks big recovery isn’t being supported by investor flows. In fact, investor flows look to have diminished somewhat. The reasoning behind this move is somewhat speculative. The impact of share buybacks is one popular argument. Whatever the cause, confidence isn’t accompanying this rally.
Economic conditions deteriorating: Maybe market participants are still scorned from the market correction in 2018. A bitterness and cynicism stemming from that is understandable. Much of the frustration comes, it would seem, from a widespread recognition that this rally has come in the absence of solid fundamentals. On the contrary, if looking at the macro-outlook, there are more reasons to be bearish than bullish right now. Global growth is (almost) irrefutably slowing, and some of the geopolitical sore-points dictating sentiment, like Brexit and the US-China trade war, are showing little new signs of progress. A major factor keeping this rally alive in riskier assets, perhaps concerningly, is a little case of “fear of missing out”.
Economic conditions deteriorating: Maybe market participants are still scorned from the market correction in 2018. A bitterness and cynicism stemming from that is understandable. Much of the frustration comes, it would seem, from a widespread recognition that this rally has come in the absence of solid fundamentals. On the contrary, if looking at the macro-outlook, there are more reasons to be bearish than bullish right now. Global growth is (almost) irrefutably slowing, and some of the geopolitical sore-points dictating sentiment, like Brexit and the US-China trade war, are showing little new signs of progress. A major factor keeping this rally alive in riskier assets, perhaps concerningly, is a little case of “fear of missing out”.
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MaxIG,
MP's Vote To Extend Article 50 As The Brexit Saga Continues - EMEA Brief 15 March
Guest IGAaronC posted a blog entry in Market News,
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Guest,
Delaying the pain of uncertainty - APAC brief 15 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Delaying the pain of uncertainty: The pain of uncertainty, when it comes to two of the world’s big macroeconomic issues, looks likely to persist for a little while yet. Two stories, to be elaborated on in a moment, defined market-headlines overnight: a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping won’t happen until at least April; while the UK House of Commons has voted overwhelmingly to extend the Brexit-deadline, though with no clear path forward from here. The frustration is palpable, and its apparently resulted in a level of exhaustion for financial markets. After a bit of chop, Wall Street is trading in a cold-fashion, only slightly down for the day, handing the Asian region little inspiration for the day ahead.
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MaxIG,
May there be hope for Brexit? Pound rallies after no-deal rejection - EMEA Brief 14 March
Guest DanielaIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The pound rallied to a new high after British MP reject leaving the EU with a no-deal. As the rejection passed by 312 votes to 278, the pound gained 2% against the dollar, reaching new highs for the year of 1.3339, as investor's received the no-deal rejection as good news for the future of the British economy.
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Guest,
APAC brief 14 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Traders see “goldilocks” conditions in US: Both European and US shares rallied overnight. For the latter, the term “goldilocks” has been bandied around. That is: growth in the US, though not as strong as it has been in the recent past, is still solid, while inflation risk is presently low, meaning the US Fed will likely remain in a neutral position. A reminder of this dynamic came in the second of two major inflation releases out of the US this week. PPI data showed a weaker than expected print, following the night prior’s soft CPI numbers. The effect has been static bond yields, a slight lift in the prospects of a US rate cut this year, and a US Dollar that has pulled-back from its highs.
US stocks fail to jump significant hurdle again: Perhaps most significantly for those with a bullish disposition, US equities have responded to the “goldilocks” dynamic in the most enthusiastic way. Once again, the S&P500 has challenged crucial resistance at 2815 – that notorious level at which the market has broken down on nearly four-or-five occasions in the past. Promisingly, as it applies to last night’s trade, the sector responsible for driving the S&P500’s gains is information technology – primarily Microsoft and Apple Inc. Recall, it was the en masse dumping of the tech-giants that led US stocks lower in Q4 last year. It’s hope that their continued recovery may be a bellwether, for the bulls, of further upside to come.
US stocks fail to jump significant hurdle again: Perhaps most significantly for those with a bullish disposition, US equities have responded to the “goldilocks” dynamic in the most enthusiastic way. Once again, the S&P500 has challenged crucial resistance at 2815 – that notorious level at which the market has broken down on nearly four-or-five occasions in the past. Promisingly, as it applies to last night’s trade, the sector responsible for driving the S&P500’s gains is information technology – primarily Microsoft and Apple Inc. Recall, it was the en masse dumping of the tech-giants that led US stocks lower in Q4 last year. It’s hope that their continued recovery may be a bellwether, for the bulls, of further upside to come.
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MaxIG,
No-Deal Brexit to be voted after May's deal rejection - EMEA Brief 13 Mar
Guest IG-Andi posted a blog entry in Market News,
The pound ticked higher after having dropped on Tuesday after Theresa May’s amended Brexit deal rejection. Today’s vote in the UK parliament whether to leave the EU without a deal is unlikely to provide excessive pressure on the sterling in case the proposal is rejected, however downside risk exists.
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Guest,Financials drag on the ASX - APAC brief 13 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Financials drag on the ASX: The ASX200 was legged in the final stages of trade yesterday. It was led by a sell-off in major financial stocks, after a media address made by Australian Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, during which he announced the Liberal government would not pursue the eradication of trailing commissions for financial advisors and mortgage brokers, as prescribed by Kenneth Hayne QC in the final Banking Royal Commission report. It turned what was an otherwise solid day for the ASX200 on its head. Naturally, given their substantial weighting in the index, a bad day for the banks more-often than not leads to a pull-back in the market. That notion certainly proved to yesterday and looks to prove true again this morning.
A good lead, but a weak start: Thus, at time of writing, SPI Futures are pointing a 7-point drop at the open. With half-an-hour left in Wall Street trade, it won’t be for a lack of a positive lead that this will be so. It’s been a reasonable day for US stocks, rallying just over 0.3 per cent, according to the S&P500. Market participants, it would seem, have had hurled back at them, when it comes to the banks, the political risk to the industry, they’d thought, had disappeared following the final report handed down by the Royal Commission. This being the case, the simplest answer for the ASX’s likely sluggish start today is this returning shadow of regulatory uncertainty over the financial sector.
A good lead, but a weak start: Thus, at time of writing, SPI Futures are pointing a 7-point drop at the open. With half-an-hour left in Wall Street trade, it won’t be for a lack of a positive lead that this will be so. It’s been a reasonable day for US stocks, rallying just over 0.3 per cent, according to the S&P500. Market participants, it would seem, have had hurled back at them, when it comes to the banks, the political risk to the industry, they’d thought, had disappeared following the final report handed down by the Royal Commission. This being the case, the simplest answer for the ASX’s likely sluggish start today is this returning shadow of regulatory uncertainty over the financial sector.
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MaxIG,
May Secures 'legally binding changes' to her Brexit Deal; Pound Rallies - EMEA Brief 12 March
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Theresa May has announced that she has secured "legally binding changes" to the withdrawal agreement ahead of the pivotal vote on her deal in the House of Commons this evening. Specifically, the changes mean that the Irish backstop would not "become permanent".
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