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HP is scheduled to report its fourth quarter earnings after the US closing bell tonight and analysts on Wall Street are projecting that it will announce quarterly earnings of $0.90 per share in its forthcoming report. Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 10:37 Representing an increase of 5.9% year-over-year. Revenue is seen at $13.82 billion, suggesting a decline of roughly $1 billion on the prior-year quarter. (AI Video Transcript) HP Q4 earnings HP is going to announce its Q4 earnings, and analysts are predicting that they will earn $0.90 per share. This would be a 5.9% increase from the previous year. However, revenue estimates are not looking as good. It is expected that they will see a decline of approximately $1 billion compared to last year, mainly because of their personal systems division, which is responsible for building desktops and notebooks. This division is expected to see a 9.8% decrease in revenue. Despite the revenue decline, HP wants to reassure the market that they believe demand for their products will stabilize by the end of the year. They also just announced a 5% increase in their dividend, which is when they distribute some of their profits to shareholders. This is meant to help calm any concerns and make investors feel more confident. HP's stock Currently, HP's stock has been trading 1.1% lower than last year overall, but it has seen a small gain of 5%. People will be watching closely to see what their actual earnings per share and revenue figures are. HP's positive outlook on PC demand stabilizing may provide some reassurance to investors. However, the decline in revenue from their personal systems division does raise some worries about how well HP will be able to compete in the market for desktops and notebooks. HP's earnings report If HP's earnings report confirms the predicted figures, it could further impact their stock performance and how investors feel about the company. The steps HP is taking to address these concerns and increase their dividend could help make investors feel better and lessen the blow of the decreased revenue from the personal systems division. Ultimately, the market will be judging how well HP can adapt to the changing preferences of consumers and still make a profit in the competitive PC market. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

AI tech giant NVIDIA is reporting later today with the chip leader expected to deliver another blockbuster revenue forecast. Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 10:54 However, the focus will be on whether widening US curbs on sales of its high-end chips to China could hamper that run. The Street sees earnings of $3.36 per share on revenue of $16.18 billion. These results will also be a major test for the AI-powered rally that has helped drive up the US stock market this year. (AI Video Transcript) NVIDIA NVIDIA, a big player in the world of artificial intelligence (AI) chips, is expected to announce impressive earnings. However, there are worries about how the growing restrictions on the company's high-end chip sales to China will affect its business. NVIDIA is projected to earn $336 per share with revenue reaching $16.18 billion. This is important because it will show how well the AI-powered rally has contributed to the growth of the US stock market. Chinese chip orders Recently, the Biden administration banned the sales of certain chips to China, and this has raised concerns. However, NVIDIA is confident that these restrictions won't have an immediate impact on their business. But back in October, their stock took a big hit when there were reports that Chinese orders worth up to $5 billion were in jeopardy. China is NVIDIA's third-largest market, making up over 20% of their revenue. NVIDIA's stock NVIDIA's stock had been doing really well earlier this year, and it even became the first trillion-dollar chip company. However, it dropped more than 12% between August and October because of worries about the situation in China. Despite these challenges, the stock is currently trading up by 2.56% today, according to the iG platform. To sum it up, everyone is eagerly waiting for NVIDIA's upcoming earnings announcement, especially the revenue forecast. People are concerned about how the US restrictions on chip sales to China will affect the company, even though NVIDIA doesn't expect any immediate consequences. The recent performance of their stock shows that investors are becoming more cautious as the situation in China continues to unfold. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

As Europe lags behind the US due to tech gaps, signs of a Chinese economic boost and German data signal potential turnaround. Source: Bloomberg Indices China United States Germany DAX Technical analysis Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 05:03 European equities seek redemption amidst global challenges As we approach year-end, European equity markets are poised to underperform their US counterparts for another year. This underperformance is, in part, attributed to the absence of major tech stocks, hindering potential productivity gains. Moreover, the US's superior growth profile and subsequent rebalancing contribute to Europe's ongoing challenges in keeping pace. Where Europe stands to benefit ahead of the US in the coming months is from its greater exposure to the Chinese economy, which has shown signs of improvement in recent months. One of the first places to show the positive China impact is in German business survey data, including the flash PMI and IFO, scheduled for release later this week. German HCOB PMIs expectations Date: Thursday, 23rd November at 7.30 pm AEDT After falling to a low of 38.8 in July, the Flash Manufacturing PMI has since risen for three months straight. This month, the flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 41.2 from 40.8. The composite PMI is expected to rise to 46.3 in November from 45.9 prior. What is expected from the German Ifo Business Survey Date: Friday, 24th November at 8.00 pm AEDT In October, the Ifo Business climate indicator rose to 86.9 from 85.9 the previous month. This month, the market is looking for a rise to 87.5, which would be its highest reading in five months, suggesting that the worst of the slowdown is in the rear-vision mirror for the German economy. DAX technical analysis As noted last week, the recent decline in the DAX was like that of the S&P 500, in that it displayed countertrend or corrective traits, which provided a bullish bias. Last week’s break above downtrend resistance at 15,550 (coming from the July 16,615 high), along with its close to the 200-day moving average now at 15,737, provided a high degree of confirmation the correction was completed at the late October 14,666 low. From here, we expect dips to be well-supported in the 15,700/500 area from buyers looking for the DAX to retest the 16,615 July high in the weeks ahead. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView FTSE technical analysis While the FTSE gained last week, its progress has been less exciting, encapsulated in a range above horizontal support at 7200 and below downtrend resistance at 7650ish (from the February 8047 high) as well as the 200-day moving average at 7605. If the FTSE can see a sustained break above the resistance layers at 7605/50ish, it would set up a retest of the Feb 8047 high. Aware that until this occurs, further range trading is likely, including a possible retest of range lows at 7200. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of, 21 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

WTI stalls, Chicago wheat slides while orange juice trades in record highs Outlook on light crude oil, Chicago wheat and orange juice as US dollar continues to slide. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 11:22 WTI grapples with resistance WTI continues to trade around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.97 per barrel, having risen by over 6% from last week’s low ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting at which additional output cuts are on the table. A rise above the 200-day SMA, tentative October-to-November downtrend line and Monday’s high at $77.97 to $78.45 has the mid-November high at $79.66 in its sights ahead of the early October low at $81.21. Potential slips may find support around the $74.92 early November low. While remaining above it, upside pressure is expected to dominate. Source: ProRealTime Chicago Wheat prices drop to one-month low Chicago Wheat prices continue to come off their early November $617 high and now trade in one-month lows whilst slipping towards the 12 October low at $563. Further down lies the late September trough at $552. Potential resistance above the $575 late October low comes in along the breached September-to-November uptrend line, now because of inverse polarity a resistance line, and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $589.90 to $589.92. Source: ProRealTime Orange juice futures trade in new record highs Front month orange juice futures have risen for six straight days. They are now trading above their previous all-time high at 416.34 as shifting weather patterns and the spread of citrus greening, a bacterial disease transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid insect, detrimentally affects top producers Florida, Brazil and Mexico. A resistance line going back to February at 428.60 represents the next technical upside target for the front month futures contract. Minor support comes in at Monday’s 409.88 low, ahead of the psychological 400.00 mark. Source: ProRealTime

The rally in risk assets continues, with US markets making fresh gains on Monday, taking the Dow to its highest level since mid-summer. Asian indices were more cautious, but were nonetheless mostly higher overnight, and the Nikkei briefly touched a 33-year high. Lower Treasury yields have continued to provide the foundation for more gains in equities, while earnings season has also gone better than expected. While Fed minutes tonight will provide some possible additional detail on the path of rates, Nvidia's earnings tonight, perhaps the last big name of the season, will be the main event.

AO World is looking to put recent weakness behind it when it reports earnings this week. Source: Bloomberg Price Moving average Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 November 2023 15:27 Is AO World back on track? AO World has indeed shown signs of recovery since July, when it reassured investors that it had resolved its issues and was back on track. The company, reported a full-year pre-tax profit of £7.6 million, while on an underlying basis, profits nearly doubled to £45 million. This positive performance has given AO World the confidence to express its ambition of achieving an underlying profit of 5% of sales in the short and medium term. With last year's turnover standing at £1.4 billion, this target implies a potential profit increase of at least £57 million. Investors will be eagerly awaiting the company's interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2023. Analyst ratings for AO World Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of between ‘buy’ and ‘hold’ for AO World – 2 strong buy, 2 hold and 2 sell - with the mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 83.67 pence for the share. It is where the share is trading as of 20 November 2023. Technical outlook on the AO World’s share price The AO World share price, which has risen close to 50% year-to-date, has been range trading since July while so far remaining above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 78.40 pence. It may be back in focus now, following last week’s failure at the share’s 94.20p one-month high. AO World Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView Were AO World’s share price to rise above 94.20p post its first half earnings results out on Tuesday, the July peak at 101.80p would be back in the picture. Further up lurks the January 2022 peak at 114.80p. AO World Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView While the 200-day SMA, July and October lows and the 2022-to-2023 uptrend line at 78.40p to 76.25p underpin on a weekly chart closing basis, the long-term uptrend in the AO World share price will remain intact. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq pause after three weeks of strong gains Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as earnings season draws to a close. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 November 2023 13:34 FTSE 100 nears last week’s high Despite disappointing UK retail sales, which last week slid to their lowest level since the 2021 COVID-19 lockdown, the FTSE 100 remains on track to reach last week’s high at 7,535 amid an empty economic calendar on Monday. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,503 may act as short-term resistance on the way up but once it and the 7,535 peak have been exceeded, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,600 will be in focus. Minor support can be found around the 9 November high at 7,466. Further down lies Thursday’s 7,430 low, followed by the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 gunning for 16,000 mark The DAX 40 continues to advance towards the psychological 16,000 mark as German October producer prices come in at -0.1% month-on-month as forecast. The index has so far seen nine consecutive days of gains and is approaching the August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 which may short-term cap. Minor support below Thursday’s high at 15,867 can be found at Thursday’s 15,710 low. Further down meanders the 200-day simple moving average at 15,664. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 consolidates below the 15,932 July peak The Nasdaq 100’s 12% rally off its late October low has last week briefly taken the index to slightly above its July high at 15,932, to 15,978, before consolidating amid profit taking ahead of this week’s Zoom and Nvidia earnings results. While the July and current November highs at 15,932 to 15,978 cap, Thursday’s low at 15,736 might be retested. Stronger support can be seen between the 15,628 to 15,520 early to mid-September highs. A rise above 15,978 would put the December 2021 high at 16,660 into the frame. Source: ProRealTime

Gold and silver prices fall back while Brent crude oil price moves higher Early trading has seen a reversal of some of last week’s moves in commodity prices, though in a limited fashion so far. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 November 2023 12:23 Gold sheds some ground The price has fallen back below Friday’s opening levels, trimming some of the gains made last week. However, having established a higher low last week the buyers remain in charge overall. A move back below the lows of Wednesday and Thursday at $1956 would dent this view, and suggest a possible retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A reversal back above $1990 puts the price on course to challenge the late October highs at $2010, and then onwards to the May highs around $2060. Source: ProRealTime Brent recovers from last week’s low The past week saw plenty of volatility in oil prices, as the drop from the October highs continued and the price fell below the 200-day SMA. The buyers mounted another impressive response on Friday, causing a rebound from the $77.60 low, but now we need to see a follow-through back above the 200-day SMA, and then above the 14 November high. This might then suggest a renewed leg higher has begun. A failure to hold above the 200-day SMA leaves the bearish view in place and could see a fresh test of the lows of last week. Source: ProRealTime Silver’s bounce stalls Last week’s rally ran out of steam at $24 on Thursday and Friday, and we have seen some additional weakness this morning which has put the price back below the highs of September and October around $23.60. A drop back below the 200-day SMA and $23 would bolster the bearish view, and open the way to the 50-day SMA and then the lows of November around $22. A reversal back above $24 would be needed to suggest that the buyers are back in charge.

Technicals turning positive though yet to shift the overview, and both retail traders and CoT speculators heavy sell but not shorting into recent price gains. Source: Bloomberg Federal Reserve Inflation /business/market_index Federal Open Market Committee Bond market Consumer price index Monte Safieddine | Market Analyst, Dubai | Publication date: Monday 20 November 2023 07:11 More Fed members speak; and mostly worsening data More members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) spoke late last week. Goolsbee discussed the "golden path" to 2%, avoiding a recession, but emphasised keeping a vigilant eye on housing inflation. Cook expressed the possibility of a soft landing, albeit uncertain. Collins advocated for patience currently but stressed the need for monetary policy to maintain a restrictive stance for some time. On the data front, the housing sector reported building permits and housing starts for October, surpassing forecasts and previous readings. However, a weakening print from the NAHB took it to lows unseen in nearly a year. Trade pricing data fell below forecasts, industrial production reversed, and there was an increase in claims. Market dynamics and financial trends: a week of positive closures and bond market shifts Key stock indices closed the week positively, with gains attributed to lighter US Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings. Notably, large-cap stocks didn't outperform this time. Another positive note was the avoidance of a government shutdown. Energy prices experienced a week-on-week drop, aligning with generally weaker economic data within the 'bad news is good news' narrative. In the bond market, Treasury yields retreated week-on-week, with the 10-year closing below 4.5%. In real terms, the 5Y through 30Y averaged closer to 2.2%, down from 2.3% at the start of the previous week. Breakeven inflation rates experienced a dip. According to CME's FedWatch, market pricing indicates the majority expects the first rate cut from current levels in May of next year. Week ahead: key data releases, including FOMC minutes As for the week ahead, the holiday on Thursday in the US is set to bring a few things forward and postpone an item. Minutes from the latest FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will be released tomorrow instead of Wednesday, following its most recent hold that came with a slightly dovish tweak but at times hawkish speak thereafter, pushing back against market pricing looking to dent its 'higher for longer' narrative. Housing sector and economic indicators: navigating a story of pullback A couple of items from the housing sector, with existing home sales on the same day for the month of October, tell a story thus far of a pullback, and mortgage applications the following day. Weekly claims will be on Wednesday after their unexpected increase last time around for both initial and continuous. Durable goods for October will also be released after a strong September print, along with the revised figures out of UoM (University of Michigan) following the uptick in consumer inflation expectations in both the 12-month and five-year preliminary readings and a clear upset in consumer sentiment. Navigating manufacturing stability: focus on preliminary PMIs Preliminary PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) out of S&P Global will be on Friday, with a focus on whether the manufacturing sector can avoid falling back into contraction. Anxious bond market traders will be processing a couple of auctions today and tomorrow. In earnings, Zoom is today, but far more important with AI fund flow implications (even if preoccupied with the OpenAI drama over the weekend) is the last of the ‘magnificent seven’, Nvidia, expected to report tomorrow. Both aren’t components of this index. Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels It was last Tuesday's action, following lighter pricing data, that took price across its previous weekly first resistance level - lacking a trigger for cautious conformists and favoring contrarian buy-breakouts with a move past it. However, still within its second resistance, and another key technical indicator on the weekly time frame, tilting into the green. It's more interesting on the daily time frame ,that isn’t far off a shift to 'bull average' when ignoring price-indicator proximity. Last Thursday's first support managing to hold but lacking a trigger for cautious conformist buy-after-significant reversals. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow As for sentiment, an increase in price usually causing sell bias to rise, as shorts initiate, and longs are enticed into closing out. Retail traders have opted to reduce their heavy sell sentiment, from 67% at the start of last week to 65% at the start of this week instead. CoT speculators are also little changed w/w and still in heavy sell territory, a drop in longs (by 1,816 lots) and shorts (by -2,379) taking the sell bias in percentage terms a notch higher to 73%. Source: IG Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the start of last week. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Strong Australian data and a declining US dollar drive AUD/USD surge, with RBA rate hike expectations for 2024. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Inflation AUD/USD Australian dollar Monetary policy Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 20 November 2023 08:16 The AUD/USD has this afternoon surged to a three-month high at .6563, as the US dollar extended its post-CPI decline. The US dollar index (DXY), faced its poorest performance since mid-July last week. The unexpected dip in the October CPI report led to US rates markets anticipating rate cuts. By July 2024, 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts are priced, with 100 basis points priced for the entirety of 2024. In contrast, last week’s Australian labour force report was robust, and has raised expectations the RBA will need to hike rates early in 2024 to continue to cool the economy, and to bring inflation back to target within a reasonable time frame. RBA vs. Fed outlooks: Australian robustness and US economic softness favour AUD/USD An extended run of resilient Australian data, up against a run of softer US economic data, has shifted the respective outlooks of the RBA and the Fed (central bank divergence) in favour of the AUD/USD. Whether that run will be extended will depend on two key local events this week. The first is the release of the RBA meeting minutes from the October meeting, and a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock on Wednesday evening at the ABE Annual Dinner in Sydney. What to expect from the RBA meeting minutes? The minutes from the Reserve Bank meeting in November are scheduled to be released tomorrow, at 11.30 a.m. At its meeting in November, the RBA raised its official cash rate by 25bp to 4.35%. It was the RBA’s first rate rise since June, and was widely expected. The catalyst for the rate hike was an upgrade in the RBA’s inflation forecasts to 3.5% from 3.3% by the end of 2024; and for inflation to be at the top end of the target range of 2-3% by the end of 2025. “The Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.” While the RBA retained its tightening bias, it was watered down, providing a dovish element to the rate hike. From "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve." To "Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." The board’s meeting minutes are expected to reiterate the sentiments outlined above. They will be closely scrutinised around what options the board considered, the factors that would prompt the RBA to act on its tightening bias, and what factors might see the RBA move back to the sidelines. RBA cash rate chart Source: TradingEconomics AUD/USD technical analysis After four prior rejections of the .6520/30 resistance area, we are encouraged by today’s price action. However, as we noted in previous reports to confirm a trend reversal, we need to see a sustained break above resistance at .6520/30. Should the AUD/USD still be trading above the .6520/30 resistance level after tomorrow's RBA meeting minutes, we expect the currencies to extend its gains to the 200-day moving average at .6592. Should it then see a sustained break above the 200-day moving average at .6592, we look for the AUD/USD to rally towards the next important layer of resistance at .6800/20. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 20 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The insurance giant is set to beat its internal growth targets Source: Bloomberg Shares Insurance Aviva Stock Life annuity Stock market Piper Terrett | Financial writer, London | Publication date: Saturday 18 November 2023 14:56 Aviva says it is on target to achieve growth in operating profit this year of 5% to 7%, despite more weather-related claims from storms Babet and Ciarán. What’s more, the company says it is on track to “exceed medium-term targets.” “Aviva has delivered nine months of strong growth,” said chief executive Amanda Blanc. “We have clear trading momentum, driven by our uniquely diversified business, as well as our leading positions in growing markets. “We have continued to expand our capital-light businesses, which now make up over half of our portfolio. We see significant opportunities to generate further higher return, capital-light growth in the future as we prioritise these segments.” The insurer recently bought AIG’s UK protection business and is thought to be considering a bid for the UK consumer operations of rival RSA. General insurance premiums came in at £8 billion (£7.2 billion in Q3 2022), with gross written premiums (GWP) up 13%, thanks, the insurer says, to strong sales in the UK, Canada and Ireland. Meanwhile, health and protection sales increased by 23% to £330 million (£268 million in 2022). The workplace pensions division also increased net flows by 26% to £5.1 billion, with 350 new corporate customers and higher auto enrolment contributions due to wage increases. Retirement revenues rose by 2% to £4.4 billion (from £4.2 billion in the same period in 2022) due to higher bulk purchase annuity (BPA) and individual annuity volumes. BPA volumes came in at around £5.5 billion. Insurer hit by storm-related claims The combined ratio, which measures the profitability of insurance companies (and should remain below 100%) increased slightly to 96.3% due to the number of weather-related claims from the recent storms (94.2% in the third quarter 2022). At £6.4 billion, wealth net flows came in at 6% of opening assets under management, but this was 9% down on the same period last year due to stock market volatility. The solvency II shareholder cover ratio, which measures the insurer’s financial resilience, remained a healthy 200% compared to 202% at the half-year. Aviva: expect more capital returns Blanc also told investors that she was confident Aviva would “continue to deliver more for shareholders” including “further regular and sustainable returns of surplus capital.” Earlier this year, the company returned £300 million to shareholders, having returned £4.75 billion in 2022. Aviva says it expects to beat its own funds generation target of £1.5 billion per year by 2024 and cash remittances of more than £5.4 billion on a cumulative basis between the years of 2022 to 2024. As such, the company also anticipates delivering £750 million of cost savings this year – a year earlier than previously expected. Controllable costs this year also fell by 1% in the third quarter to £2 billion. Analysts at broker Barclays, who have an equal weight rating on the stock, think the shares could reach 472p. The shares are down 6% this year to 422p and are worth watching, given they are trading some way below their three-year highs of 606p, last seen in January 2022. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Asian markets were mixed again on Monday, with a loss for the Nikkei but strong gains for the Hang Seng as China's central bank maintained rates at the November fixing, as expected. The US dollar slid to fresh 2 1/2-month lows along with falling US yields which hit two-month lows and may keep equity markets in the green after three straight weeks of gains. The oil price extends Friday's gains ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting when additional supply cuts will be on the table. Argentina's election of a far-right libertarian, FOMC minutes, followed by US durable goods orders, services and manufacturing PMIs will be the main focal points as earnings season draws to a close with Zoom, Nvidia and HP earnings.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 20 November Chris Beauchamp's insight Next week is sparser in terms of key data, though eurozone watchers will keep an eye on the German IFO data. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada will also be of interest, along with minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve bank (Fed), covering their latest decisions to raise rates and leave them unchanged, respectively. Earnings season in the US is winding down, but NVIDIA and HP will be key names in the first half of the week. In the UK, AO World and Kingfisher could prove the most interesting for UK traders. The US Thanksgiving holiday takes place at the end of the week, resulting in a quiet second half of the week as US markets are closed on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. Economic reports Weekly view Monday None Tuesday 12.30am – RBA meeting minutes. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 1.30pm – Canada CPI (October): price growth to be -0.1% Month on month (or MoM) and 3.8% Year-over-year (YoY,) from 0.2% and 3.3% respectively. Core CPI to be 2.8% YoY from 2.6%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (October): index to rise to 0.02. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US existing home sales (October): sales to fall 1% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses 7pm – Fed minutes: these will look at the latest decision to leave unchanged rates unchanged. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Wednesday 12.30pm – UK autumn statement: the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will unveil the government’s spending plans for the next six months. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US durable goods orders (October), initial jobless claims (w/e 18 November): orders to rise 4.7% MoM. Claims to fall to 225K from 231K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 17 November): stockpiles rose by 3.59 million barrels last week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Thursday Thanksgiving – US markets closed Workers’ Day – Tokyo Stock Exchange closed 8.30am – German manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (November, flash): previous reading 40.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 9.30am – UK services & manufacturing PMI (November, flash): services to hold at 49.5 and manufacturing to rise to 45.1. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 11.30pm – Japan CPI (October): prices to rise 3.2% YoY from 3% and core CPI to rise 2.9% YoY from 2.8%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses Friday 9am – German IFO index (November): previous reading 86.9. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 2.45pm – US manufacturing & services PMI (November, flash): manufacturing to hold at 50 and services to drop to 50.5 from 50.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses Company announcements Monday 20 November Tuesday 21 November Wednesday 22 November Thursday 23 November Friday 24 November Full-year earnings Compass Sage, Grainger, Britvic Half/ Quarterly earnings Zoom AO World, Cranswick, NVIDIA, Best Buy, HP Johnson Matthey, Severn Trent MITIE, FirstGroup Trading update* Kingfisher Dividends FTSE 100: Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust, RS Group, National Grid, Vodafone, Imperial Brands, DCC FTSE 250: 3i Infrastructure, Witan Inv Trust, Tate & Lyle, Urban Logistics, Kainos Group, British Land, Babcock, HICL Inf Fund, Liontrust Asset Management Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Nvidia is set to report Q3, FY24 results on Nov 21st, 2023 after market closes. Nvidia’s share price has surged 20% in November and 260% year to date. Now, what to expect for the upcoming earnings? Source: Bloomberg Nvidia Shares Revenue Price Technical analysis Economy of China Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Friday 17 November 2023 09:35 Nvidia Q3 Earnings date Nvidia is set to report third-quarter FY244 results on Nov 21st, 2023 after market closes. Nvidia Q3 Earnings expectation For the September quarter, the AI chip leader expects revenues of $16.09 billion, representing a jaw-dropping 171.7% increase from the same period last year, and 18% up from the second quarter. Its earnings per share is estimated to grow by 400% year-on-year to $3.39 per share. Source: Nasdaq Nvidia Q3 Earnings key watch Hot chips As a market leader in the AI chip world, Nvidia enjoys significant pricing power and benefits from explosive surging demand so far this year. Not only have major US tech giants purchase Nvidia’s chips, but Chinese tech companies like Tencent have stocked up Nvidia’s made-for-China chips, despite the elevated chip export restrictions imposed by the Biden administration. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect Nvidia’s chip sales in the third quarter to sustain their robust momentum from the previous quarters, with the anticipation that revenue from the “Data Center” division will reach $12.7 billion—a staggering 232% year-on-year increase from $10.32 billion in Q2. However, emerging signs indicate that a shifting landscape in the AI chip world is on the way. There’s no doubt that the US government’s chip restrictions have cast a shadow over Nvidia’s Chinese market which contributes nearly one-quarter of the chip market’s total revenue. Despite Nvidia's plans to release three new chips for China in the face of the new bans, Chinese companies are beginning to lose faith and seek out non-US suppliers. Baidu, for example, recently announced a new deal to source chip from Huawei. As a result, Nvidia's outlook for the quarter and the year ahead, in the face of this new reality, will be in focus during its Q3 earnings. The return of Gaming Moreover, NVIDIA’s “Gaming” and “Professional Visualization” sectors are expected to further recover in the third quarter. In the previous quarter, revenue from the Gaming sector and Professional Visualization jumped up 22% and 24% year-over-year, respectively. It is anticipated that strong demand across most regions for gaming products will result in third-quarter revenue from the Gaming sector standing at $2.78 billion, a 76.5% increase compared to the same quarter in 2022. Nvidia rating and technical analysis Based on ratings from 38 Wall Street analysts, 37 suggested the stock as a buy, while one rated it as a hold. For the next 12 months' price target, the average price range for Nvidia is $560-$648, representing a 14%-32% premium from today’s stock price. Source: Tipranks/IG From a technical standpoint, after breaking out from the August-October downward trendline, Nvidia's prices have surged more than 20% in November and 260% year to date, with the record high marked in August now back in sight. While the newly-formed ascending trendline should support maintaining its upward trajectory, the approaching psychological $500 level is poised to play a crucial role with a great potential to prompt profit-taking, similar to what happened at the end of August. Thus, a move above this level will help the price to revisit its record high at $520, but failing to do so may leave the ascending tunnel at risk of breaching, leading to a move back towards the $470 level. Nvidia Q3 summary In summary, in a year defined by the AI gold rush, it’s easy to understand that expectations are sky-high for the leader in the AI chip world. Additionally, Nvidia's Q3 earnings come at a time when its stock prices have been rising sharply, with another record high seemingly on the horizon. Now the question is whether Nvidia’s upcoming report can meet such high expectations and lofty valuation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

The US dollar could head lower in the near term; and the pullback in US Treasury yields will act as a headwind for the greenback. What is the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares United States dollar Euro EUR/USD AUD/USD Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York | Publication date: Friday 17 November 2023 07:06 The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, has fallen more than 2.15% this month. Over the last couple of days, however, the selling pressure has eased, allowing the broader greenback to perk up modestly. Signs indicate downward correction of the US dollar may not be over Despite the stabilization, it is likely that the downward correction that began a few weeks ago has not yet run its course. One variable that could weigh on the US currency is the recent move in treasuries as traders try to front-run the "Fed pivot." For context, yields have pulled back sharply this month, with the downturn accelerating, following subdued October US CPI and PPI data. Both reports surprised to the downside, sparking a dovish repricing of interest rate expectations. Yields could continue to retrench if economic weakness, clearly displayed in the latest jobless claims numbers, intensifies heading into 2024. This scenario is anticipated as the impact of past tightening measures feed through the real economy. Oil's influence: a 20% plunge and its potential impact on USD and yields Another factor that could further depress yields and the US dollar is the massive sell-off in oil, which has plunged nearly 20% this quarter. If the trajectory of declining energy costs persists, inflation will decelerate faster than forecast, reducing the need for an overly restrictive stance by the US central bank. EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD was muted on Thursday following a moderate pullback in the previous session. Despite market indecision, the euro retains a constructive bias against the US dollar, with prices making higher highs, and higher lows recently, and trading above key moving averages. To reaffirm the bullish perspective, the pair needs to hold above the 200 and 100-day SMA near 1.0765. Successfully defending this support zone could pave the way for the exchange rate to break above the psychological 1.0900 level, and advance towards Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960, followed by 1.1075. In case sellers regain strength and push EUR/USD below 1.0765, the short-term bias might shift to a bearish outlook for the common currency. This potential development might lead to a downward move towards 1.0650, with continued weakness heightening the risk of retesting trendline support at 1.0570. EUR/USD chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD technical analysis Thursday saw GBP/USD maintaining a subdued stance, struggling to gather positive impetus, with slight consolidation below the 200-day simple moving average. In the event of escalating losses, primary support rests at 1.2320. Preserving this crucial floor is essential to revive hope of a sustained uptrend; any failure to do so might lead to a descent toward the 1.2200 threshold. Should the bulls reclaim control, initial resistance is expected at 1.2450/1.2460. Upside clearance of this barrier could invite fresh buying interest, laying the groundwork for a potential rally towards the 100-day simple moving average. On further strength, we could see a move towards 1.2590, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October decline. GBP/USD chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis Following robust gains earlier in the week, AUD/USD fell on Thursday, with prices slipping beneath the 100-day SMA, after being rejected at the 0.6500 handle. Should the retracement continue, support rests at 0.6460 and 0.6395 thereafter. On further weakness, a drop towards 0.6350 is plausible. On the other hand, if the pair resumes its advance, technical resistance is located around the 0.6500 mark. Overcoming this hurdle might present a challenge for the bullish camp, yet a clean and clear breakout could catalyze a rally towards the 200-day simple moving average a tad below the 0.6600 level. AUD/USD chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Asian markets were mixed again on Friday, with a gain of 0.5% for the Nikkei but heavy losses for the Hang Seng. Shares in Alibaba fell after it announced that it would scrap a plan to spin off its cloud computing arm and list its grocery chain. Meanwhile, markets looked at a rise in US jobless claims and poor earnings from Walmart and worried about whether the US economy was beginning to show signs of stagnation. Oil prices hit fresh four-month lows yesterday, and along with falling yields continue to act as a support for more gains in equity markets. UK retail sales fell 0.3% in October, an improvement on last month's 1.1% drop but much worse than the expected 0.5% gain.

Tematica CIO Chris Versace joins IGTV financial analyst Angeline Ong to explain why AI and big computing remain sectors will outperform in the first half of 2024. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 November 2023 15:03 They also discuss that despite structural improvements in the retail sector, apparel will continue to face headwinds. (AI Video Summary) Discussing recent CPI and PPI indicators This video interview is about recent happenings in the stock market, explained in a way that's easy to understand. The interviewee, Chris Versace, who is the CIO of Tematica, talks about two important indicators called the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Basically, these numbers show how much things cost for consumers and producers. The recent figures show that prices are not increasing as much as expected, which means it's less likely that interest rates will go up. Versace agrees with this and thinks that the rates might even go down in the future. Retail sales market performance They also discuss how retail sales are doing, and it seems like things are going well. Target and TJX, for example, had better sales than anticipated. Versace thinks that this might be because people are earning more money, gas prices are going down, and people have some extra cash to spend. However, he is a bit worried about the apparel market, so it's worth keeping an eye on the housing market for any positive news. Big tech market performance When it comes to earnings, they mention some big companies like NVIDIA, Apple, and Amazon. While these companies are doing well, Versace advises to look beyond them and consider other markets like smartphones and PCs, which are starting to pick up. He talks about how Qualcomm and Taiwan Semiconductor are working together and how the smartphone market is growing. The guilty pleasure model Lastly, they talk about a model that Tematica uses to predict which consumer goods will do well. It's called the guilty pleasure model and basically looks at products that people buy no matter what's happening in the economy. Companies like Hershey's and Starbucks are examples of brands that could see good results during the holiday season. Overall, the interview gives an overview of what's going on in the stock market, from inflation to retail sales to different industries. It's a useful watch for someone who is not very experienced in trading. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 continue their rally Indices have made further gains, though at a slower pace than in recent sessions, with yesterday’s US data providing more good news on inflation. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 November 2023 12:25 Dow returns to 35,000 The index is back at the 35,000 area, the highs from early September. The past three weeks have seen the market make huge gains, with no sign of a reversal yet in view. A close above 35,100 would then open the way to the July highs at 35,650. A short-term drop might find support around the 100-day SMA, or further down towards 34,000. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 hits new 2023 high Wednesday’s session briefly saw the index touch the highest level since the beginning of 2022. The surge from the 200-day SMA has witnessed a 13% gain for the index, breaking out of the summer descending channel and opening the way to more upside in the direction of the 2022 highs towards 16,600. Short-term support might be found around 15,500, the August highs, and then down towards the 100-day SMA. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 reaches trendline resistance November’s rally has carried the index back to trendline resistance from the June highs. There may be some volatility around this area, which is close to the September lower high, but a close above 33,700 would open the way to the 34,000 highs of June. In the short-term, the mid-October highs around 32,500 might provide some support if a pullback develops. Source: ProRealTime

The broader US dollar regains ground after Tuesday’s selloff; despite today’s moves, the path of least resistance may be lower for the greenback, especially against some of its top peer. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares United States dollar USD/JPY United States Japanese yen Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York | Publication date: Thursday 16 November 2023 07:52 The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, inched higher on Wednesday, up about 0.25% to 104.35 following Tuesday's selloff instigated by softer-than-forecast US CPI numbers. Nonetheless, the greenback's advance, likely fueled by a modest rebound in US yields, was limited and unimpressive, with markets continuing to position for a Fed pivot in the not-so-distant future. US producer price figures released in the morning seem to have reinforced the prevailing view that the FOMC is done raising borrowing costs and that its next move will be rate cuts. By way of context, the October PPI declined by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly below the anticipated 0.1% increase, a sign that price pressures are cooling rapidly in the country. US economic data chart Moving forward, there is scope for the US dollar to extend lower, but to be confident in this assessment, incoming information will need to confirm that economic activity is downshifting, and that inflation is on a sustained downward path and heading towards the central bank’s 2.0% target. For this reason, traders should pay close attention to upcoming economic releases. Turning the focus to the calendar, key events to watch in the coming days will be US jobless claims, industrial production and building permits. Weak reports will spell trouble for the US dollar by putting downward pressure on yields. Positive data, on the other hand, should be supportive of the greenback, as it would push expectations for monetary policy easing further back into 2024. November's economic calendar Source: DailyFX USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY recovered ground after a pullback on Tuesday, recapturing a key technical barrier at 150.90 and approaching its 2022/2023 peak, just shy of the psychological 152.00 level. With prices on an upward trajectory and flirting with a critical threshold, it is important to remain vigilant as Tokyo may step in unexpectedly to prevent further yen weakness and suppress speculative trading behavior. In the scenario of Japanese authorities intervening in the FX market, there's a possibility of USD/JPY slipping below 150.90 and descending towards 149.00. Subsequent losses could shift the focus to 147.25. Conversely, if Tokyo abstains from intervention and allows USD/JPY to break above 152.00, a potential move towards the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel at 153.50 is conceivable. USD/JPY technical chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD technical anaylsis GBP/USD pulled back on Wednesday, unable to sustain its previous session’s upside breakout, with the exchange rate slipping below the 200-day simple moving average. If losses accelerate in the coming days, primary support appears at 1.2320. Maintaining this floor is imperative to bolster confidence in the bullish stance; any failure to do so could prompt a retreat towards the 1.2200 handle. In the event that the bulls regain command of the market and spark a reversal, initial resistance is identified between 1.2450 and 1.2460. A successful breach of this barrier might lure new buyers in, creating conditions for an upswing toward the 100-day simple moving average. On continued strength, the focus shifts to 1.2590, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October slump. GBP/USD technical chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis AUD/USD extended its recent advance on Wednesday, breaching technical resistance around the 0.6500 mark. With bullish impetus on its side and sentiment on the mend, the pair is likely to consolidate to the upside in the coming days, setting the stage for a possible move towards the 0.6600 handle, which roughly aligns with the 200-day simple moving average. Further up, attention shifts to 0.6680. Conversely, in the scenario of sellers mounting a comeback and initiating a bearish reversal, initial support appears at 0.6500, with the next area of interest at 0.6460. It is of utmost importance for the bulls to robustly defend the latter threshold; any failure to do so may rekindle downward pressure, potentially leading to a drop toward 0.6395. Should weakness persist, a decline towards 0.6350 is plausible. AUD/USD technical chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The US dollar recorded its worst day in 2023 as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October cemented the view that the Federal Reserve has done hiking interest rates. Source: Blommberg Forex Consumer price index Federal Reserve United States dollar Inflation United States Consumer Price Index Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Thursday 16 November 2023 03:23 The US dollar recorded its worst day in 2023, dipping more than 1.5% on Tuesday, as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October cemented the view that the Federal Reserve has done hiking interest rates. US CPI review According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in October 2023, the United States' Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.2% year on year, marking a notable decrease from the 3.7% recorded in the previous month and falling below the anticipated rate of 3.5%. Overall, inflation seems to be resuming a broad-based slowdown, particularly evident as gasoline prices retreated during the first month of the fourth quarter. Gasoline prices saw a significant decline of 5% in October, in stark contrast to the 2.1% increase observed in September. So, what’s next for Fed? This week's inflation gauge adds further weight to the perception that the Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes, especially alleviating the resurging concern sparked by recent hawkish statements from Fed policymakers. Fed Chair Powell stated last week that they are "not confident" in meeting the inflation mandate with the current monetary policy and will be cautious about the risk of being misled by a few positive months of data. Despite this, Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has prompted investors to firmly believe that the central bank’s unprecedented tightening journey has come to an end. According to CME Fed Watch, the market currently perceives the probability of a rate hike in December/January as close to none. Furthermore, the likelihood of the first rate cut in June is approaching 50% now. USD technical analysis From a techinical point of view, the strong momentum for the greenback since July has clearly run out of steam, as evidenced by the breach of the months-long trendline as well as mid-term moving averages. The final layer of support before confirming a bearish turn for the price will focus on the 200-day moving average, which sits near 103/103.1 at the moment. Further down lies the psychological 100 mark. On the flip side, the 50-day SMA at 104.3 should serve as the imminent resistance line. Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Stocks trimmed their gains overnight in Asia, after the post-inflation rally, but optimism continues to predominate overall. The US-China summit provided signs of progress in relations between the two powers, and a stopgap funding deal in Washington will avoid a partial government shutdown for the time being. Today's focus is on US retailers, after Target unveiled impressive earnings and a solid outlook that sent the shares up 20%. Walmart updates the market later today, along with weekly US jobless claims and a host of Fed speakers.

As the momentum gets behind crypto currencies again IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor caught up with David Lenigas, chairman of bitcoin mining investor Vinanz. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 November 2023 16:19 The reasons behind the rocket under Vinanz’s shares are many-fold, but the recent re-invigoration of crypto on the hope of a bitcoin ETF is one. The other main booster was the company’s recent capital raise which gives it the muscle to buy up a lot more mining capacity. Where now?

British Land, Persimmon and PureTech Health could constitute the three best FTSE 250 shares to watch next month. These shares have been selected for recent market news. Source: Bloomberg Indices Unemployment FTSE 100 Anxiety disorder Clinical trial Stress Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London The FTSE 250 — unlike its older brother the FTSE 100 — is domestically focused. And the UK’s economic outlook remains as precarious as it has through much of 2023, with Office for National Statistics GDP data showing that the economy saw no growth in the three months to September. The data body has also released information showing that wages in the same period rose at an annual rate of 7.7%, faster than price rises. For context, CPI inflation is currently at 6.7% — and a Reuters poll of analysts considers this key metric will fall to just 4.8% at the next reading tomorrow. Meanwhile, though the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.2%, job vacancies between August and October fell by 58,000 to 957,000 — the sixteenth month in a row where vacancies have fallen. And the Bank of England has already warned that higher rates could drive unemployment to 5% in 2024, resulting in slower wage growth and 150,000 job losses. For context, 2,315 companies fell into insolvency in England and Wales in October, 18% more than in October 2022, and also 18% more than in September 2023. While there may be some movement on the fiscal side with the Autumn Statement this month, growth can be dependent on interest rates. Morgan Stanley analysts think that rate cuts could arrive as soon as May 2024, and the base rate could fall to 4.25% by the end of next year. But as usual, Monetary Policy Committee members remain divided — chief economist Huw Pill has already argued that it ‘doesn’t seem totally unreasonable’ to expect a rate cut by next August — but Governor Andrew Bailey still thinks it’s ‘really too early’ to talk about the subject. And this makes the macroeconomic landscape complex for FTSE 250 companies — on 2 November, the index was the best performing in the world. But of course, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Best FTSE 250 shares to watch? 1. British Land British Land shares rose by 9.1% today after on the back of solid half-year results and positive broker comments. In the six months to 20 September 2023, the company saw underlying earnings rise by 3.4% — while the interim dividend also rose by almost 5%. While British Land shares are still down by more than 40% over the past five years, this can be where value is found in the FTSE 250. CEO Simon Carter enthuses that underlying profits are increasing because of strong leasing and cost control — and occupancy is at an excellent 96%. The CEO also notes that as rates start to fall, the quality of British Land’s assets will ‘reassert themselves as the primary drivers of performance.’ In other words, this cyclical company may be at the bottom of its cycle. Stifel has hailed the results as ‘resilient…given the market backdrop’ and that ‘given the clear slowdown in valuation declines and increased clarity of future interest rates, we think the shares look oversold at a 44% discount to spot NTA.’ The 6.8% dividend yield could also look attractive. 2. Persimmon Persimmon shares have lost more than 40% of their value over the past five years, with the housebuilder ejected from the FTSE 100 as its market capitalisation fell with rising rates. However, it increased its full-year build target to 9,500 homes this month — 500 more than its August prediction. Of course, most of its quarterly earnings make for poor reading. Completions are down by more than a third in the three months to September 2023 at just 1,439 homes — and the order book has also fallen by a third to just £930 million. The FTSE 250 operator has also warned that market conditions ‘will remain highly uncertain’ going into 2024. Further, market leading property portal Rightmove data shows that asking prices for homes in the UK have fallen by 1.7% — or more than £6,000 — this month to £362,143. This represents the steepest fall in five years for the time of the year. But Persimmon shares hit just 960p on 25 October and have now recovered to 1,239p today. Arguably, much of the negative news could be priced in — and housebuilding stocks are well-known as cyclical opportunities. For context, US CPI data has come in under expectations, and the stock has reacted positively today. 3. PureTech Health PureTech Health is definitely not a household name — unlike the shares above — but the smaller FTSE 250 company today announced that its LYT-300 (Oral Allopregnanolone) clinical trial candidate achieved its primary endpoint in a Phase 2a acute anxiety trial within healthy volunteers. Specifically, it achieved a statistically significant reduction in the stress hormone response, as measured by salivary cortisol, compared to placebo. And this ‘proof-of-concept’ trial, which demonstrates a reduced physiological stress response, could support the further development of LYT-300 as a treatment for a range of anxiety disorders. For perspective, anxiety affects nearly 30% of all US adults, but just like antidepressants, anti-anxiety medications have drawbacks including mixed efficacy, the potential for abuse, delayed onset of action and poor tolerability — and this treatment could overcome these negative side effects. LYT-300 was well-tolerated across the trial, with only transient mild or moderate adverse events. Of course, the company has more than one asset — with 27 current candidates, one filed for FDA approval and two taken from inception to regulatory clearance. But despite this success, all early stage clinical trials carry some risk. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

WTI muted but gold, silver rally on slipping US dollar Outlook on WTI, gold and silver as US inflation comes in softer-than-expected. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 November 2023 10:58 WTI unchanged despite positive China data WTI continues to trade around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $78.04 per barrel despite China retail sales beating forecasts and the country’s industrial output rising the most in six months. Potential slips may find support around the $77.60 late August low and the $77.11 high seen last Thursday whereas resistance above the one-month tentative downtrend line at $79.04 sits at Tuesday’s $79.66 high. A rise above this level would engage the 3 November low at $79.96 and the minor psychological $80.00 mark. Further up sits the $81.21 early October low which may well cap, if reached at all. A fall through last Wednesday’s $76.46 low would put the May high at $74.70 back on the cards. Source: ProRealTime Gold price gets a boost from weaker greenback The gold price is seen recovering from its $1,932 per troy ounce Monday low as the US dollar is retreating in the face of softer US inflation. The precious metal is on track for its third day of gains and has so far managed to overcome the September high at $1,953 whilst gunning for the psychological $2,000 mark. Minor support can be found between the September highs at $1,953 to $1,947. More significant support can be seen along the October-to-November support line at $1,941, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,936 and the current November low at $1,932. Source: ProRealTime Silver price rises by over 4% in a couple of days The price of spot silver has surged as US inflation came in weaker-than-expected and as the US dollar slid with the August-to-November downtrend line at $23.20 per troy ounce having been breached and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.26 being tested. Further up beckon the late September and October highs at $23.70 to $23.77. Support below Wednesday’s $23.04 low can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.77. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 extend gains on softer US and UK inflation Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 following weaker-than-expected US and UK inflation. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 November 2023 11:11 FTSE 100 rallies on softer US and UK inflation The FTSE 100 is on track for its third consecutive day of gains on softer US and UK inflation with the early November high at 7,484 being retested. Further up beckons the 55-day simple moving average at 7,503. If exceeded, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,606 would be back in the frame. Support below Wednesday’s 7,430 low can be found between the breached one-month tentative downtrend line at 7,406 and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 reaches 200-day simple moving average The DAX 40’s rally from its 14,589 October low accelerated to the upside with the index rallying by 1.76% on Tuesday on softer US consumer price inflation (CPI) and as the German ZEW economic sentiment came in much stronger than expected. The index is now flirting with the 200-day simple moving average at 15,656 which may short-term cap. Once bettered on a daily chart closing basis, the late August and September peaks at 15,992 to 16,044 should enter the fray. Potential slips should find support between the early October high at 15,575 and the mid-September low at 15,561. Further minor support sits at the late September 15,518 high. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 nears the September peak at 4,540 The sharp rally in the S&P 500 has gained even more upside momentum amid softer-than-expected US inflation data and as 10-year US treasury yields slid below the 4.50% mark. The early and mid-September highs at 4,516 to 4,540 represent the next upside targets ahead of the 4,607 July high. Potential slips may find support around the 11 September high at 4,491 and further down around the 24 August high at 4,474. Source: ProRealTime