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A brief description of ETFs and five of the best ETFs for UK investors to consider in Q1 2024. These ETFs are selected for their widespread popularity — though this does not equivalate positive performance. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Shares Commodities ETF Investment Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) is an incredibly popular trading strategy, especially among newer investors. ETFs allow you to buy into a ‘basket of securities’ based on a specific sector or investing approach, without having to buy the assets individually. Investing in an ETF allows for increased exposure to a diversified range of investments, the trading liquidity of equity instead of the rigidity of a mutual fund, and the ability to manage risk by trading futures just like an individual stock. Of course, ETFs can contain all sorts of investments, from stocks to commodities to bonds. Other than the convenience, ETFs usually offer low expense ratios and lower broker commissions than buying the constituent assets individually. And with inflation still high, a potential recession inbound, and uncertainty soaring, the diversification of ETFs appears more attractive than ever. However, it’s worth noting that an ETF will only ever perform as well as its underlying constituents. We do offer an ETF screener that can help to inform your investing decisions. But remember, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Best UK ETFs to watch 1. Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF This exchange traded fund is one of the most popular in the world, as it aims to track the performance of the FTSE All-World index, made up of large and mid-sized companies in both developed and emerging markets. This index offers possibly the most diversified portfolio of stocks possible, providing exposure to almost 4,000 companies from across 50 countries at a low annual fee. However, it does have a geographical bias, with 60% of companies in the ETF based in the US. And because of the relative size of the US tech giants, the FTSE All-World’s biggest sector is usually technology — which can be volatile given the sensitivity of tech stocks to monetary policy. Further, over the longer term the index is usually beaten by the S&P 500. But it’s worth noting the benefits of diversification — investors may wish to protect themselves from unpredictable global events, such as the occasional US stock market bubble, and also benefit from emerging markets. 2. iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector ETF This ETF seeks to track the performance of an index composed of U.S. Information Technology Sector companies as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard. It boasts diversified exposure to titanic US tech stocks including top holdings Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA — but with the caveat that it only invests in the US. US information technology stocks have recovered significantly across 2023 — rates across the pond may have peaked amid hopes that generative AI could drive further capital growth. Of course, as noted above, tech shares — even the blue chips — are more volatile than other sectors. 3. WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil ETF The WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil ETF is designed to closely track the Bloomberg Brent Crude subindex, collateralised by swaps held with the Bank of New York Mellon. Buying shares in this popular ETF gives investors exposure to Brent Crude, globally recognised as the most popular oil benchmark, which is based on oil drilled in the North Sea. Oil prices remain elevated as a result of post-pandemic demand, alongside wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. In particular, some investors fear that if Iran enters into a regional conflict with Israel, the ‘world’s oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, could be closed. 4. iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF The iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF is a selective ETF which focuses on the most appealing strength of the some of the best FTSE 100 companies — reliable dividend returns. Instead of investing in all 100 companies in the UK’s premier index, it instead offers diversified exposure to the top 50 UK companies within the FTSE 350 with the highest dividend yield (excluding investment trusts). Of course, there are risks — dividends are not guaranteed and cyclical companies like Rio Tinto or Barratt can see dividend yield fall fast in poor years. Many investors look to pair this fund with a NASDAQ 100 index tracker ETF, allowing for some exposure to growth for a balanced portfolio. 5. Invesco Physical Gold ETC Invesco Physical Gold ETC seeks to replicate the performance of the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd PM Fix Price/USD, with the fund backed one-to-one with gold bullion held by JP Morgan Chase in London bank vaults. Gold continues to flirt with near-record $2,000/oz levels, as the traditional real asset inflation-hedge, which preserves purchasing power and acts as a protective asset in times of severe market stress, once again performs admirably in this inflationary environment. It’s worth noting that central banks bought a record 1,136 tons of the precious metal in 2022 and continue to buy huge amounts this year. And of course, gold’s price trades in an unofficial pair with the US Dollar; usually, rate rises tend to see gold fall as defensive investors seek the safe haven of the world’s reserve currency. However, gold has continued to rise even as rates increase, highlighting its attractiveness in the current environment. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Asian indices fell back overnight as some of the bullish momentum of the past week faded. The RBA raised rates once more, by 25 basis points, but the Australian dollar fell in the wake of the decision due to the softer language employed. A mixed picture was seen in Chinese trade data, with imports stronger but exports weaker. Once more markets confront a day without major heavyweight economic data, now that the RBA is out of the way, but US markets continue to exhibit strong momentum - the S&P 500 has rallied for six sessions, its longest run since June, and the Nasdaq 100 has moved higher for seven days, a streak not seen since January.

Gold and natural gas struggle while oil prices edge higher Commodity prices are mostly quiet in early trading, but oil prices have edged higher. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 06 November 2023 12:19 Gold prices hold steady The price continued to push higher on Friday, defeating expectations of a fresh downturn after Wednesday’s recovery. This now puts the price on course to head back towards $2000 and higher, averting a short-term pullback scenario for the time being. A close below $1960 would be a necessary catalyst for a short-term bearish view. Source: ProRealTime WTI fights to move higher Friday witnessed a reversal, pushing back the price below the 100-day SAM and potentially marking a renewed downward move towards the 200-day SMA. The close below the early October low hands the initiative to the sellers, reinforcing the bearish view created by the lower high in mid-October. Buyers will need a close back above $84 to suggest that a short-term low is in place. This will then challenge trendline resistance from the late September high. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas drops back Gains on Thursday failed to carry through into Friday, with the price faltering below the highs of earlier in the week. A move back above 3600 helps to restore a short-term bullish view, and puts the price on course to target a higher high. Trendline support from the August low comes into play down towards 3200. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 lose upside momentum following last week’s strong gains Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as softer US economic data, a subdued Non-Farm Payrolls and dovish Fed statements led to risk-on sentiment. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 06 November 2023 12:29 FTSE 100 hovers above support The FTSE 100 ended last week on a high and managed to rally to 7,484, close to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,497, following softer US employment data, rapidly falling yields and rising US indices. The index begins this week around the 7,401 June low and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369 which offer minor support. While it holds, last week’s high at 7,484 may be revisited, together with the 55-day simple moving average at 7,497 and the early September high at 7,524. If overcome in the course of this week, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,621 would be next in line. Below 7,384 lies the October low at 7,258 which was made close to the 7,228 to 7,204 March-to-August lows and as such major support zone. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 loses upside momentum ahead of resistance The DAX 40’s rally from its 14,589 October low has been followed by one of this year’s strongest weekly rallies amid a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook and softer US employment data. A rise above Friday’s 15,368 high will put the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the July-to-November downtrend line at 15,386 to 15,420 on the map. Slightly above it sits major resistance between the 15,455 to 15,575 July-to-mid-September lows and the mid-October high. Slips should find support around the 15,104 mid-October low below which lies the minor psychological 15,000 mark and the early October low at 14,944. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 futures point to higher open after several dismal weeks Last week the S&P 500 saw its strongest weekly year-to-date gain thanks to softer economic data, and a subdued non-farm payroll report. These led market participants to believe that the Fed has ended its rate hike cycle and that the US economy remains on track for a soft landing. The next upside target is the October high at 4,398 which needs to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis for a technical bottoming formation to be confirmed. If so, an advance towards the September peak at 4,540 may be seen into year-end. Minor support below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,354 can be spotted around the 4,337 August low and the breached September-to-November downtrend line, now because of inverse polarity a support line, at 4,315 as well as at the 4,311 mid-October low. Source: ProRealTime

The new week has begun with more gains for stocks in Asia, after the impressive recovery in equities last week. Softer economic data and more cautious central bank commentary has tilted investors towards thinking that the peak in rates is now behind us. Cuts are now priced in for 2024, and with little major data this week the outlook is unlikely to change. Most heavyweight earnings have been released, pointing towards a quieter week for markets.

After a pivotal week, US equity indices look to build on gains in November. Thanks to softer economic data, and a subdued non-farm payroll report, which raised hopes of the Fed ending rate hikes for a soft landing. Source: Bloomberg Indices S&P 500 Federal Reserve Nasdaq United States Stock market Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 06 November 2023 05:27 What a difference a week makes. At the start of last week, the concern was how deep the 2023 correction in US equity markets would extend, only for US equity markets to rebound and lock in their best week of the year. The stunning rebound followed a string of equity and bond market-friendly news that included soft ISM data, lower treasury issuance, and a more balanced FOMC. All of this was topped off on Friday night by a soft non-farm payroll report, which raised hopes the Fed has ended its rate hiking cycle and is on track to deliver a soft landing. Within the NFP details, the US economy added 150k jobs in October, falling from 336k in September. The unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022, and wage growth increased by 0.2% over the month, less than the 0.3% expected. After what may well turn out to be the most important week of the final quarter of 2023, the rates market starts this week, pricing in a 25bp rate cut from the Fed in June and a total of 100bp of cuts in 2024. With little in the way of tier-one economic data this week, aside from the University of Michigan Sentiment Index, that is unlikely to change much in the short term. S&P500 technical analysis While the decline from the July 4634.509 high went deeper than expected, it is viewed as countertrend as it displays choppy corrective characteristics rather than impulsive ones. The close above the 200-day moving average at 4273 is a positive development. However, before confirming the correction is over, we need to see the S&P500 break the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This means we are waiting for a break/close above the October 4430 high to confirm the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed. S&P500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis In our previous updates, we noted the 14,200/14,000 layer of support as an important area for the Nasdaq to complete a correction from the July 16,062 high. After holding and rebounding from the support mentioned above, the Nasdaq is within touching distance of trend channel resistance at 15,430, coming from the July 16,062 high reinforced by the October 15,468 high. Should the Nasdaq see a sustained break above resistance at 15,430/70, it would open up a test of the 15,719 September high before the July 16,062 high. Aware that rejection from the 15,430/70 resistance zone may see a retest of support at 14,200/14,000. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 6 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Following a strong surge last week, the AUD/USD reached its highest point in three months, driven by a post-FOMC rally and soft non-farm payroll data. Now the focus is on the RBA meeting. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Interest rate Inflation Australian dollar Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 06 November 2023 08:06 RBA preview and what comes next for the AUD/USD After a rip higher at the end of last week, the AUD/USD closed 2.83% higher at .6514, its highest close in three months. The AUD/USD extended its post-FOMC rally following Friday night's soft non-farm payrolls data, which raised hopes the Fed has ended its rate hiking cycle, and is on track to deliver a soft landing. The events of last week left the US interest rate market pricing in a 25bp rate cut from the Fed in June, and a total of 100bp of cuts in 2024. In contrast, before tomorrow's RBA meeting, the Australian interest rate market is pricing in 1 ½ rate hikes (37bp) before the middle of 2024, with only a slim chance of a rate cut before year-end. Below is a full preview of what to expect from tomorrow's all-important RBA Board meeting. RBA interest rate decision (Tuesday, 7 November at 2.30 pm AEDT) At its meeting in October, the RBA kept its cash on hold at 4.10% for a fourth consecutive month. The RBA's statement under new Governor Michele Bullock was little changed, and a tightening bias was retained. Hawkish RBA communique, initially observed in the meeting minutes released in mid-October, has put the market on notice ahead of tomorrow's board meeting. "The Board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected. Whether or not a further increase in interest rates is required would, therefore, depend on the incoming data and how these alter the economic outlook and the evolving assessment of risks." Currently, the rates market is assigning a 50% probability of a 25bp rate hike from the RBA to 4.35%. Given the political debate around whether Q3 inflation data represented a "material" change, it will be a close call. For the record, we expect the RBA to look through the political noise and raise rates tomorrow by 25bp to 4.35%. We expect a tightening bias to be retained in recognition of the run of stronger data outlined below. In September, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% vs 3.7% expected. Q3 Inflation (Trimmed mean) increased to 5.2%YoY vs 5.0% expected. Q3 PPI rose by 1.8% vs 0.4% previous. Q2 GDP printed at 2.1% YoY vs 1.6% expected. Retail Sales for September increased by 0.9% vs 0.3% expected. RBA cash rate Source: RBA AUD/USD technical analysis In our update last week here we noted that the most recently formed weekly candle displayed "a loss of momentum type that suggests the AUD/USD is trying to base at last week's .6270 low." After busting through resistance at .6400c, the AUD/USD starts the week, eyeing more significant resistance at .6520/30 from highs in August and September. Should the AUD/USD close above here post tomorrow's RBA meeting, it would confirm a medium-term low is in place in the AUD/USD at the recent .6270 low and open up a move towards the next layer of resistance at .6600/20, coming from the 200-day moving average and horizontal resistance. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 6 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 6 November Chris Beauchamp's insight After the busy weeks of late October and early November, calm descends. Most major companies have reported in the US, though Disney and Uber will be worth watching. In the UK, pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca updates the market with third quarter (Q3) figures. The key event of the week may be the Australian rate decision, with rates expected to rise again, in contrast to other major central banks that have left rate unchanged. Economic reports Weekly view Monday 3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (October): expected to fall to 52.1. Markets to watch: CAD crosses Tuesday 3am – China trade data (October): exports to fall 5% year-on-year (YoY), from a 6.2% drop a year ago. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 3.30am – RBA rate decision: rates forecast to rise to 4.35%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 1.30pm – US trade balance (September): exports to rise to $261 billion. Markets to watch: USD crosses Wednesday None Thursday 1.30am – China CPI (October): prices to rise 0.2% YoY from 0%, and 0.2% MoM, in line with last month. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 4 November): claims to fall to 220K. Markets to watch: USD crosses Friday 7am – UK GDP (Q3, preliminary): growth expected to be -0.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and -0.6% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (November): index forecast to rise to 65. Markets to watch: USD crosses Company announcements Monday 6 November Tuesday 7 November Wednesday 8 November Thursday 9 November Friday 10 November Full-year earnings Assoc. British Foods WHSmith Half/ Quarterly earnings Ryanair UBS, eBay, Uber Marks & Spencer, Airbus, Bayer, Adidas, Credit Agricole, Lyft, Disney AstraZeneca, Tate & Lyle, National Grid, WeWork Allianz Trading update* Persimmon, Direct Line, Hilton Food, Metro Bank JD Wetherspoon, ITV Taylor Wimpey, Flutter, Vistry Dividends FTSE 100: HSBC, Airtel, BP, Sainsbury’s FTSE 250: Sthree, Genus, Softcat, C&C, Greencoat UK Wind, Target Healthcare Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 6 November Tuesday 7 November Wednesday 8 November Thursday 9 November Friday 10 November Monday 13 November FTSE 100 10.80 Australia 200 0.2 0.1 8.3 3.1 9.0 Wall Street 3.4 18.1 1.6 3.2 US 500 0.08 0.21 0.85 0.66 0.27 0.95 Nasdaq 2.33 2.23 0.94 1.07 Netherlands 25 0.1 EU Stocks 50 0.9 China H-Shares Singapore Blue Chip 0.84 Hong Kong HS50 19.8 South Africa 40 10.3 Italy 40 Japan 225

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 sitting at two-week highs Indices have had a strong week, and have made impressive gains, though caution persists ahead of today’s payrolls reading. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 03 November 2023 12:42 FTSE 100 in bullish short-term form The rally off the 7300 continued on Thursday, with impressive gains for the index that have resulted in a move back through 7400. This now leaves the index on the cusp of a bullish MACD crossover, and could now see the price on course to test the 200-day SMA, and then on to 7700. A reversal back below 7320 would negate this view. Source: ProRealTime DAX at two-week high The index made big gains for a second consecutive day, and with a fresh bullish MACD crossover the buyers appear to be firmly in charge. The next stop is trendline resistance from the August record high, and then on the declining 50-day SMA, which the index has not challenged since early September. A failure to break trendline resistance might dent the bullish view, though a close below 15,000 would be needed to give a firmer bearish outlook. This would then put the lows of October back into view. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 in strong form ahead of non-farm payrolls The index has recouped a significant amount of the losses suffered in October, and like the Dax is now barrelling towards trendline resistance and then the 50-day SMA. Beyond these lies the 4392 peak from early October, and a close above here would solidify the bullish view. A reversal back below the 200-day SMA would signal that the sellers have reasserted control and that a move back towards 4100 could be underway. Source: ProRealTime

Gold price steady, while WTI crude oil slips and natural gas pushes higher Gold is holding on to gains and natural gas is higher, but oil prices are coming under pressure again. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 03 November 2023 12:27 Gold holds firm The price remained relatively muted on Thursday, matching the limited movement seen on Friday. Bullish momentum has faded over the past week, though dip buyers have stepped in on weakness, most notably on 24 October and 1 November. Overall the bullish move is intact, though a close below $1950 could signal a more substantial pullback is at hand. Source: ProRealTime WTI bounce stalls Oil prices rallied on Thursday, with WTI moving higher off the 100-day SMA. Now the buyers need to provide fresh impetus, with a close above $84 helping to restore a short-term bullish view. This then puts the price on course for more gains towards the October high. A failure to clear trendline resistance from the September high could see selling pressure materialise once again. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas pushes higher After a mixed performance on Wednesday, the price stabilised on Thursday. The overall rally is firmly intact, as is the move higher from mid-October. With the price having carved out a higher high this week the buyers are in control. A close above 3670 would see the price above the late-2021 low and reinforce the bullish view. In the near-term, a drop below 3350 might suggest a push back towards the mid-October lows. Source: ProRealTime

The US economy is forecast to have created 180,000 jobs in October; the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.8% and weak NFP report would be bearish for the US dollar. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Federal Reserve GBP/USD Pound sterling EUR/USD IG Analyst | Publication date: Friday 03 November 2023 05:21 Markets keep a watchful eye on US job numbers Wall Street will be on high alert Friday morning when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its most recent employment survey. With the potential to alter the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, this report is set to draw substantial attention and scrutiny, possibly resulting in greater market volatility heading into the weekend. Consensus forecasts suggest that US employers increased payrolls by 180,000 in October, following the addition of 336,000 jobs in September. Separately, household data is expected to reveal that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, highlighting the persistent tightness in labor market conditions. Focusing on compensation, average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% monthly, which would result in an annual reading of 4.3%. For the Federal Reserve, pay growth is a critical metric, serving as an indicator of inflationary trends. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to observe the progression of wages in the broader economy and assess their compatibility with the 2.0% inflation target. Upcoming us labor market data Source: DailyFX Possible market scenarios Fed Chair Powell has maintained the possibility of additional policy tightening for the current cycle, but has not firmly embraced this scenario, pledging to proceed carefully in the face of growing uncertainties. This suggests that policymakers will rely heavily on incoming information to formulate future decisions. Looking at implied probabilities, the odds of a quarter-point rate rise at the December Fed meeting sits at roughly 20% at the time of writing. Market pricing has been in a state of flux lately, but the likelihood of another hike could rise materially if payroll numbers beat projections by a wide margin. Any NFP headline figure above 275,000 could have this effect on expectations. Generally speaking, a very hot employment survey could spark a hawkish repricing of the Fed’s policy path, creating the right conditions for US Treasury yields to resume their ascent after their recent pullback. This scenario could give the US dollar a boost against its top peers such as the euro and the British pound. On the other hand, if hiring activity disappoints and confirms that the economic outlook is deteriorating, rates could continue their retrenchment, sending the broader US dollar lower. This scenario would be supportive of EUR/USD and GBP/USD, allowing both pairs to extend their nascent recovery. Anything below 100,000 jobs should be bearish for the American currency. FOMC meeting probabilities chart Source: FedWatch Tool EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD rebounded on Thursday amid broad-based US dollar weakness, but fell short of taking out overhead resistance stretching from 1.0670 to 1.0695. For confidence to improve further, we need to see a clear and clean move above 1.0670/1.0695 in the coming days. If this scenario unfolds, the bullish camp may reassert dominance, paving the way for a rally towards 1.0765, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October selloff. On the other hand, if sellers regain the upper hand and drive prices below trendline support at 1.0535, downward momentum could intensify, opening the door for a drop toward the 1.0450. Below this region, the next area of interest is located at 1.0355. EUR/USD technical chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD technical analysis The British pound has been weakening against the US dollar since mid-July, with GBP/USD steered to the downside by a well-defined bearish trendline and marking impeccable higher lows, and lower lows during its slide. Earlier in the week, cable made a push towards trendline resistance at 1.2200, but failed to clear it decisively, a sign that the bulls have not yet developed the necessary momentum for a breakout. For a clearer picture of the short-term prospects for GBP/USD, it's vital to assess how prices behave around crucial levels over the next few days, taking into account two potential scenarios. Scenario one: Breakout If cable manages to breach dynamic resistance at 1.2200, we could see a move towards 1.2330. On further strength, the focus shifts to the 200-day simple moving average near 1.2450. Scenario two: Bearish rejection If cable gets repelled lower from its current position, the pair could head toward its yearly lows at 1.2075, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022/2023 rally aligns with several swing lows. Maintaining this technical support is of utmost importance; any breach could trigger a decline towards the 1.1800 handle. GBP/USD technical chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Stocks have enjoyed one of their strongest week of the year, with major US indices having clocked up gains of around 5%. Asian markets continued to make headway, shrugging off mixed results from Apple, with the bullish impetus provided by the pause in central bank hiking efforts and hopes of a peak in interest rates continuing to be the main driver. Attention now turns to the latest US payroll report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job creation from last month. Another strong open is expected for European markets, though US futures are more mixed, with Apple's after-hours fall putting some pressure on Nasdaq 100 futures.

USD/JPY surged to a 12-month high at 151.7 on the final hours of October, prompting Japan's foreign exchange chief to offer verbal support. Source: Bloomberg USD/JPY Japanese yen United States dollar Forex Bank of Japan Central bank Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Thursday 02 November 2023 09:37 USD/JPY surged to a 12-month high at 151.7 on the final hours of October, prompting Japan's foreign exchange chief to offer verbal support. USD/JPY experiences a tumultuous week Despite being only halfway through the week, the Japanese yen has already taken investors on a rollercoaster ride in a full cycle of ups and downs. On Monday, Nikkei, a well-known Japanese news group, reported that the Japanese central bank was considering scrapping its yield-curve control policy in the Tuesday meeting, a significant step away from its ultra-loose monetary policy. This move had great potential to strengthen the weakening yen which is trading versus greenback at its lowest level since 1990. The news immediately sent the Japanese yen to a two-week high. However, the news did not materialize in the announcement made on the following day's Bank of Japan meeting. Although the Bank of Japan did relax its grip on bond yields and raised its inflation projection for 2024, moves that can be seen as shaking the ground of its ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the message came out of the central bank’s meeting notably fell short of investors' expectations for a much clearer pivot signal. As a result, the Japanese yen tumbled in the hours following Tuesday's after meeting announcement, with USD/JPY surging as much as 1.5%, marking the biggest one-day movement since April. Then comes the third consecutive day of volatility, which started with Japan's chief currency official Masato Kanda stating that authorities are still on standby, ready to intervene if necessary. While the yen strengthened slightly from the bottom of the year, the USD/JPY exchange rate stabilized above 151. At the time of writing, the rollercoaster ride of USD/JPY is showing no signs of stopping as we head into the busiest chapter of the week with the FOMC meeting and the US job report that are both set to shake up the FX market with no hesitation. USD/JPY technical analysis From a technical standpoint, as seen in the USD/JPY daily chart below, after surging 16% so far this year, there is notable short-term resistance at 151.536, stemming from the October 2022 peak and the ceiling formed by peaks from July. A breach of this level could send the pair above 152, a level last seen in June 1990. On the other hand, based on the RSI curve, a near-term pullback potentially triggered by its overbought status could find support at 150, where the 20-day moving average currently resides. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

What are the key takeaways from the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting? Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee United States dollar United States Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 02 November 2023 03:12 Market Recap The Federal Reserve (Fed) has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at its latest meeting, which has been fully priced by markets and should come as little surprise. In light of the absence of fresh economic projections at this meeting, the large triggers for market moves revolved around Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s words and the Fed statement. In the Fed statement, the central bank acknowledged the strength in economic activity in the third quarter, but also newly recognised the tighter financial conditions, likely as a reference to the recent run-up in US longer-term Treasury yields. This has been in line with the significant shift in rhetoric among US policymakers over the past weeks, whereby the appetite for rate hikes has softened with the view that surging Treasury yields may have carry the work of tightening. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell guided that the risks of doing too much to bring down inflation versus doing too little are getting more balanced, reflecting an increasing shift in attention towards economic conditions and probably the need to assess the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy for longer. While he kept the door open for additional hike if inflation progress stalls, the stance has carried more ambiguity with emphasis on data-dependency, which fed market views that the Fed may already be at the end of its hiking cycle. The messaging for a prolonged pause ahead was retained with the usual pushback against rate cuts, but markets are likely accustomed to it given the upside move in longer-term Treasury yields since August this year. US dollar struggles at resistance The aftermath of the Fed meeting saw US 10-year Treasury yields retracing further from its key psychological 5% level to a two-week low, dragging the US dollar 0.3% lower overnight. Having traded within a tight range over the past month, some indecision remains in place, with stalling upside momentum reflected in the declining moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) on the daily chart. A retest of the 106.80 level of resistance overnight was met with a bearish rejection, which could leave the 105.00 level on watch as immediate support on further downside. For now, the broader upward trend could remain intact, with the dollar still above its Ichimoku cloud support on the daily chart, alongside various moving averages (MA) (50-day, 100-day, 200-day). Greater conviction for a shift in trend to the downside may have to come from a breakdown of these key support lines. Source: IG charts Nasdaq 100 continues to bounce off channel support The Nasdaq 100 has been the only major US index still trading above its 200-day MA. With the overnight dip in Treasury yields, the rate-sensitive Nasdaq has found its way higher by 1.6%, outperforming both the DJIA (+0.7%) and S&P 500 (+1.1%). A falling channel pattern seems to be in place since July this year, with the index bouncing off the lower channel trendline support lately around the 14,200 level. A bullish crossover was displayed on daily MACD, while its relative strength index (RSI) is attempting to cross above its key 50 level. Further upside may leave a retest of the 15,100 level in sight next, where the upper channel trendline resistance stands alongside its Ichimoku cloud resistance on the daily chart. Source: IG charts IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. 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Latest price gains entice retail trader buys taking the majority long bias lower and closer to that of CoT speculators. Source: Bloomberg Indices Forex Federal Open Market Committee Nasdaq Speculation Nasdaq-100 Monte Safieddine | Market Analyst, Dubai | Publication date: Thursday 02 November 2023 07:57 Sign up for IG's Daily and Weekly Market Report to receive this information and more, in an elaborate and comprehensive report recounting the forex majors, commodities and indices before the European open. FOMC holds rates, but what lies ahead? The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was to hold on rates again as anticipated, in its statement noting "strong pace" for third-quarter economic activity as well tighter financial conditions. Its Chairman Powell thereafter failed to give any indication on December’s decision. Data disappointments: a 'bad news is good news' scenario Prior to that was a plethora of US economic data that generally disappointed favoring the ‘bad news is good news’ theme. ADP’s (Automatic Data Processing) non-farm estimate for October a miss showing 113K growth compared to 149K forecasts The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the same month deteriorated further into contracting territory, registering a reading of 46.7, down from the expected 49. There was a notable drop in new orders, which fell to 45.5, and its employment component also contracted, declining from 51.2 to 46.8 The weekly mortgage applications out of MBA falling again with a -2.1% reading, and the exception Job openings out of JOLTS a beat at 9.55m for the month of September. Treasury's quarterly refunding There was also the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement where upcoming supply was lighter than anticipated and skewed away from the further end a sigh of relief for the bond market. Yields drop and tech outperforms The results from the above three sent Treasury yields notably lower, and so too in real terms. Another small pullback for breakeven inflation rates, and market pricing (CME's FedWatch) favors a hold from the Federal Reserve with a small minority expecting a hike. The first rate cut from current levels is anticipated by the majority for June of next year. For the stock market, most sectors finished yesterday's session in the green. Thanks to the pullback in yields, tech, communication, and consumer discretionary sectors outperformed by a decent margin. These sectors are crucial for powering the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which had an outperforming finish against both the S&P 500 and Dow 30. We've got the weekly claims, factory orders, and earnings from the heaviest component, Apple, today before attention shifts to the market-impacting non-farm payrolls tomorrow and services PMIs. Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels The strong gains propelled the price past its previous 1st Resistance level, which initially held on a couple of occasions. This triggered and favored conformist sell-after-significant reversals before the subsequent moves eventually led it to its 2nd Resistance level, ultimately giving the contrarian buy-breakouts the upper hand. Price-indicator proximity indicates that minor shifts could impact key technical indicators significantly. Additionally, a broad bear channel implies that if the price continues its ascent, it may occasionally deviate from the 'bear average' technical overview. This suggests ongoing caution for conformist strategies that involve selling into these gains. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Nasdaq As for sentiment, retail traders aren’t complaining given they held a majority buy 61% bias prior to the event, since then dropping to a slight long 54% as of this morning. They aren’t too far off CoT speculators according to last Friday’s report, who have themselves pulled back into slight buy territory. Source: IG Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. 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The Federal Reserve stands pat on monetary policy, keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the second straight meeting; and forward guidance leaves the door open for further policy firming Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities Federal Open Market Committee Inflation Federal Reserve Central bank IG Analyst | Publication date: Thursday 02 November 2023 05:48 The Federal Reverse Bank today concluded its penultimate conclave of the year, voting unanimously to keep the target for its reference interest rate at a 22-year high within the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The move was largely in line with recent guidance offered by various central bank officials and Wall Street consensus expectations. The decision to retain the status quo represents a commitment to a data-driven approach. This game plan may buy time to better evaluate the totality of incoming information and properly assess the impact of past actions on the broader economy, considering that monetary policy tends to operate with unpredictable and variable lags. The FOMC has increased rates 11 times since 2022 To offer some context, the FOMC has increased borrowing costs 11 times since 2022, delivering 525 basis points of cumulative tightening to slow down elevated price pressures, that had diminished the purchasing power of most Americans. The strategy has yielded positive results, albeit at a gradual pace, with headline CPI running at 3.7% y-o-y in September after exceeding 9.0% last year. At the last two meetings, however, policymakers have decided to stay put, reflecting their pledge to proceed carefully in the face of growing uncertainties. Several officials have also noted that the bond market has been doing the job for them by tightening financial conditions thorough higher yields, reducing the necessity for an excessively aggressive communication bias. September headline and core us inflation chart Source: BLS FOMC policy statement In its communiqué, the Fed struck a constructive tone on growth, noting that economic activity has expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter, a subtle upgrade from the previous characterization of “moderate”. The positive tone was bolstered by comments on the labor market, which underscored that job gains have moderated but remain strong, and that the unemployment rate has stayed low. On consumer prices, the statement noted that inflation remains elevated and that policymakers will be “highly attentive” towards the associated risks, mirroring comments from last month. Shifting the spotlight to forward guidance, the language remained largely unchanged, with the FOMC indicating that it would consider various factors “in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent over time”. Keeping this message unaltered might be a strategic move to preserve maximum flexibility should additional actions become necessary in the future to contain inflation. Immediately after the FOMC announcement crossed the wires, gold prices stayed in negative territory despite the pullback in yields. The U.S. dollar (DXY index), meanwhile, held onto daily gains, but market movements were subdued as traders awaited comments from Jay Powell, who may offer additional clues on the central bank's next steps. US dollar, yields and gold prices chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities United States dollar Gold EUR/USD IG Analyst | Publication date: Thursday 02 November 2023 05:11 The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) today concluded its penultimate meeting of 2023. As expected, the institution led by Jerome Powell decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. In terms of forward guidance, the central bank stuck to the script and kept the door open to further policy firming in case a more restrictive stance is needed later on to curb inflation. Despite the FOMC’s tightening bias, Powell failed to steer market pricing toward another hike, as he has done in the past when economic conditions warranted a more aggressive stance. Although his press conference contained some hawkish elements, a strong conviction in the need to continue raising borrowing costs was absent, a sign that the normalization cycle may have already ended. The US dollar could soon come to a head With policymakers seemingly more cautious, perhaps aware that the full effects of past actions have yet to be felt, the U.S. dollar could soon be topping out. However, to have confidence in this assessment, incoming data will have to confirm that the outlook is beginning to deteriorate rapidly in response to increasingly restrictive financial conditions. Traders will have a chance to gauge the health of the overall economy later this week when the ISM services PMI survey and October U.S. employment figures are released. If both reports surprise to the downside by a wide margin, as the ISM manufacturing indicator did, there could be scope for a large pullback in the broader U.S. dollar. This scenario would boost EUR/USD and gold prices (XAU/USD). Upcoming US economic reports Source: DailyFX EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD was on course for a moderate drop on Wednesday, but then reversed course after bouncing off medium-term trendline support. Despite recent price action, the underlying bias remains bearish, but to be confident that the losses will accelerate, the bears need to push prices below 1.0535. Should this scenario unfold, we could see a move towards the 1.0500 handle. On further weakness, the focus shifts to 1.0355. Conversely, if the bulls return in force and manage to drive the exchange rate decisively higher, initial resistance lies between 1.0670 and 1.0695. Upside clearance of this technical ceiling could reignite upward impetus, paving the way for a rally towards 1.0765, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October descent. EUR/USD technical chart Source: TradingView Gold price technical analysis Gold (front-month future contracts) has rallied sharply since its October lows but has struggled to clear resistance in the $2,010/$2,015 range. Attempts to breach this area in recent weeks have been met with downward rejections every single time, a sign that the bulls have not mustered the required strength to spark a breakout. To gain insight into XAU/USD’s outlook in the short term, it's essential to monitor how prices progress in the coming trading sessions, taking into account two potential scenarios. Scenario 1: If the yellow metal manages to take out the $2,010/$2,015 barrier, bullish momentum could gather pace, creating the right conditions for a move towards last year’s high around $2,085. Scenario 2: If sellers engineer a strong comeback and push gold prices below support at $1,980, losses could accelerate, paving the way for a possible test of the 200-day simple moving average at $1,945. Below this threshold, attention turns to $1,920. Gold price chart, front-month futures Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Global stock markets cheered Jerome Powell's more cautious tone last night, and revised down expectations of further rate hikes by the US central bank. Powell said the risks to the outlook were more equally balanced, with inflation expectations now 'in a good place'. The chances of a rate cut by June next year also rose, according to market pricing. The focus now shifts to the Bank of England, which is also expected to leave rates unchanged, and then on to Apple's earnings tonight.

Begbies Traynor, Ascential, and easyJet could be the best FTSE 250 shares to watch next month. These shares are selected for recent market news. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Insolvency United Kingdom Tax Digital economy Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Down 10.3% year-to-date, the FTSE 250 has been irregularly falling since hitting 24,195 points in early September 2021, to just 17,165 points today. The UK’s domestically focused index is highly sensitive to the country’s changing fiscal and monetary policy — and while there is more nuance — the bottom line is that the Bank of England base rate has risen from 0.1% to 5.25% over the past couple of years, while corporation tax for larger companies has jumped from 19% to 25%. And further volatile macroeconomic changes are coming up in November. First, there’s the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 2 November to decide where rates go next, then the CPI inflation reading on 15 November, followed by the Autumn Statement on 22 November. This statement — among other things — is rumoured to include changes to ISA products that will likely benefit UK investors, after a period of tax rises and allowance cuts. Accordingly, it’s worth considering that the economic picture may change markedly over the next few weeks. But for now, here’s three of the best FSTE 250 shares to watch — all of which have seen recent news. 1. Begbies Traynor Begbies Traynor is an insolvency expert specialising in corporate restructuring. In recent full-year results, it saw another ‘successful year of continued growth with results ahead of original market expectations.’ Revenue grew by 11% year-over-year, free cash flow hit £14.1 million, the dividend increased by 9% to 3.8p for the year, the sixth year of increases in a row. The FTSE 250 company remains confident of ‘a further year of growth in line with market expectations... (with a) strong order book of insolvency revenue (up 19% in the year), driven by continued increase in insolvency market volumes.’ Today, the firm has released analysis prepared by Red Flag showing that the number of firms in ‘critical financial distress’ — defined as having county court judgements exceeding £5,000 — has jumped by 25% to nearly 38,000 businesses over the past three months. Regional Managing Partner Julie Palmer notes that ‘tens of thousands of British companies are now in financial dire straits now that the era of cheap money is firmly behind us.’ Further, The UK Insolvency Service has announced that the last two quarters have seen the highest quarterly insolvency numbers since Q2 2009, alongside the highest number of creditors’ voluntary liquidations since 1960. Begbies shares have fallen by 21.7% year-to-date, but this may be a chance to buy the dip. 2. easyJet easyJet shares have fallen by 23.7% over the past six months, including a sharp fall even after reporting its positive Q4 results. The FTSE 250 airline delivered record Q4 profit before tax, expected to be between £440 million and £460 million, while passenger numbers increased by 8% and ticket yields by 9%. The mid-cap company expects that capacity will grow by circa 15% in Q1 and has set a medium-term target to deliver more than £1 billion of profit before tax. To deliver this growth, easyJet has confirmed 157 ‘firm orders’ for additional aircraft, with a further 100 ‘purchase rights’ — which could see the fleet almost double in size to 587 aircraft over the next decade. The company is also promising to restart dividends, and it’s perhaps this dual ambition which is sending shares lower — usually, companies focus either on capital growth or shareholder returns. Of course, there are other issues brewing in the background. Over the past few months, air traffic control strikes, wildfires in Greece, and seemingly endless UK technical IT glitches have all helped to pile pressure on easyJet’s share price. And then there’s fears that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a regional conflict; an outcome that the World Bank thinks could send oil to $150. However, the airline is well hedged for jet fuel over the medium term — and better hedged than competitor IAG. This could see shares recover over the next month as investors consider the long-term outlook. 3. Ascential UK-based data and technology company Ascential rose sharply after announcing that it now plans to offload two divisions to focus on its events business. The small cap tech sector has been significantly impacted by rising rates — and the numbers achieved for these assets may have taken the markets by surprise. US-listed advertising titan Omnicom is spending £741 million on Ascential’s digital commerce business, while private equity-founded Wind UK Bidco 3 is buying the product design segment for up to £700 million. This will yield a combined enterprise value of circa £1.4 million and cash proceeds of £1.2 billion. Ascential plans to return £850 million to shareholders, and thereafter focus solely on events such as the Money 20/20 fintech conference in Las Vegas or the Cannes Lions marketing festival. The company has been undergoing a strategic review since April 2022, and this step forward could unlock significant value. CEO Duncan Painter enthuses that ‘Omnicom's and Digital Commerce's complementary technology and data platforms, together with their strong client relationships will be instrumental in accelerating the realisation of Digital Commerce's strategy, and WGSN is also well set for its next chapter of growth under new ownership. Ascential's continuing business with its world-leading Events brands remains well-positioned to succeed as a high quality, independent UK-listed business.’ Ascential shares have fallen since their peak yesterday, perhaps marking an opportunity for high-risk investors. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Global markets begin the day waiting for intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, after USD/JPY surged through Y150 and Y151. One Japanese official said that authorities were on standby to intervene, a day after the Bank of Japan's latest policy decision. Attention now turns to the US government's borrowing needs and the Fed rate decision. While no change is expected in US rates, the Fed is expected to leave the door open for more hikes. Stocks showed further signs of strength on Tuesday, aside from the FTSE 100, but may struggle for direction until this week's big events of the Fed decision, Apple earnings and non-farm payrolls are out of the way.

What's in store for The Walt Disney Company's upcoming Q4 earnings report on November 8, 2023? From Disney+ subscriber counts and theme park performance to Wall Street expectations, here's what investors need to know. Source: Bloomberg Shares The Walt Disney Company Streaming media Hulu Disney+ Hotstar Disney Parks, Experiences and Products Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 31 October 2023 08:00 The entertainment giant at a glance Walt Disney Co. is one of the world's largest and most well-known entertainment conglomerates. Its business divisions include media networks, theme parks and resorts, studio entertainment, music, consumer products, and interactive media. Walt Disney is scheduled to report its full-year and fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, 8 November 2023. The rocky road of Q3: a mixed bag Walt Disney's Q3 results were mixed, impacted by declining streaming users and substantial restructuring costs. "Our results this quarter are reflective of the unprecedented transformation we're undertaking to restructure the company, improve efficiencies, and restore creativity to the centre of our business," said Robert A. Iger, Chief Executive Officer. Disney+ and the subscribers saga The company noted that subscribers had fallen to 146.1 million for Disney+ during the most recent quarter, a 7.4% decline from the previous quarter. Most of the subscriber losses came from Disney+ Hotstar after it lost the rights to Indian Premier League cricket matches. A silver lining: parks and experiences The Parks, Experiences and Products division saw a 13% increase in revenues to $8.3 billion during the quarter, driven by strength in its international parks. Facing declining users and revenues, Disney announced it would follow in the footsteps of streaming rival Netflix by raising the price on its ad-free streaming tier and cracking down on password sharing. The company elected to keep the price stable on its ad-supported tier. Reports suggest that half of Disney's streaming platform users are on the ad-supported tier, which has increased engagement by 35% since March. A snapshot of Walt Disney's Q3 results Source: Walt Disney Key investor focus areas: Hulu's future and ESPN's sale The market is expecting to hear that Disney added 3.1 million subscribers, which, combined with higher prices, should bolster the streaming division Investors will be keen to assess the impact of cost-of-living pressures on attendance at parks, including Disney's flagship park, Disney World in Florida Investors will focus on plans for streaming service Hulu, which is two-thirds owned by Disney and the remainder by Comcast Investors will seek information on plans to sell specialty sports network ESPN after Disney recently released standalone financials for ESPN. Key financials - summary Wall Street's expectations for the upcoming results are as follows: Earnings per share: $0.72 adjusted vs $1.03 in Q3 Revenue: $21.42 billion vs $22.33 billion in Q2 Walt Disney's revenue chart Source: TradingEconomics Disney technical analysis Walt Disney's share price has fallen over 60% from its March 2021 high of $203.02 to last week's closing price of $79.33. Four weeks ago, it briefly fell below its COVID-19 crash low of $79.07 to $78.73, its lowest level since October 2014. Disney weekly chart Source: TradingView As viewed on the daily chart below, the share price of Disney has made fresh cycle lows after diving below support at $84.00 in late August. While it hasn't built acceptance below $80.00, it has been well capped by resistance at $86.20–$86.30. To alleviate downside risks, the Disney share price must recover above this resistance, coming from mid-September and mid-October highs. It also needs a sustained close above the 200-day moving average at $91.43 to set up a test of the resistance area at $100–$105. On the downside, the next support level is at $76.30–$74.30, dating from early 2014. Disney daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of 30 October 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Apple is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on November 3, facing market expectations of a slight revenue decline but an EPS rise. Will challenges in the China market and big tech sentiment affect its performance? Source: Bloomberg Shares Apple Inc. iPhone United States China Huawei Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 30 October 2023 08:59 When does Apple Inc. report earnings? Apple Inc. is set to release its Quarter Four (Q4) financial results on 3 November 2023, after the market closes. Apple’s earnings estimates Current market expectations are for Apple’s Q4 revenue to decline marginally by 1% year-on-year to US$89.3 billion, compared to US$90.1 billion a year ago. On the other hand, Earnings Per Share (EPS) is expected to be at US$1.39, up 7.7% year-on-year and 10.3% from the previous quarter. Its Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation (EBITDA) margin is expected to improve to 32.2%, up slightly from the previous quarter’s 31.9%. Market impact of Apple's earnings Being one of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, which account for the bulk of the US indices’ gains year-to-date, its upcoming earnings may play a crucial role in determining the indices' trend into year-end. Historical performance Apple generally has a strong record of outperforming, only failing to meet earnings estimates once over the past 20 quarters. That said, the recent sell-off in big tech share prices, despite delivering top and bottom beats, indicates that market participants also have high expectations as to whether current earnings momentum can be maintained. Historical revenue and EPS chart Source: Refinitiv Challenges in the Greater China market The Greater China market accounted for one-fifth of Apple’s revenue last year. Thus far, there isn't much conviction that demand on that front can hold up. A report from Counterpoint Research suggests that iPhone 15 sales for the first 17 days in China have underperformed last year’s iPhone 14 sales (an estimated 4.5% lower). Unit sales of the higher-end Pro Max and Pro models are down 14% and 11% year-on-year, respectively. Competition from Huawei Apart from attributing the weaker iPhone demand to cautious Chinese consumers, Huawei’s newly launched Mate 60 series has also proven to be strong competition. Reports suggest that Huawei’s smartphone sales growth has increased 37% year-on-year in Q3 2023 (versus Apple’s estimated 10% decline), as its new Kirin chips, launched as a response to US tech sanctions, seem to be well-received. Positive signs in the US market On the other end of the globe, reception for the iPhone 15 series in the US (Apple's main market) may offer some cushion, with estimated double-digit increases from a year ago. Current expectations are that the overall net effect may still drive a slightly lukewarm 2.4% year-on-year increase in iPhone revenue for the Q3 2023 results. Hardware performance overview Conversely, other hardware products are expected to weigh longer, with further contraction anticipated year-on-year (estimated iPad -14.6%, Mac -24.7%, other products -2.2%). Source: Refinitiv Services business: a bright spot Unsurprisingly, expectations are for growth in Apple’s services business to continue accelerating to 11.4% year-on-year in Q3 2023, up from the previous quarter’s 8.2%. This segment has been Apple's crown jewel in recent years, being its highest-growth and highest-margin business, along with a recurring revenue model. It includes subscriptions, warranties, licensing fees, and Apple Pay. Upcoming products and innovations Any guidance around Apple's growth catalysts will also remain under scrutiny to diversify the company’s revenue stream away from iPhone sales (48.5% of total revenue) over the longer term. Apple has previously announced its Apple Vision Pro headset, expected to launch early next year. Focus on Artificial Intelligence More notably, Apple's work on generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be in greater focus. Given that the company is reportedly investing millions of dollars per day on multiple AI models across several teams, any fresh updates on generative AI tools, models, or services will be closely watched. Technical analysis Apple’s share price has broken below its Ichimoku cloud support on the daily chart back in August of this year, and subsequent attempts to reclaim this zone have been unsuccessful. Buyers will now face the challenging task of having to reclaim the 200-day MA to provide some conviction of near-term upside. Failing that, prices may potentially head lower to retest the US$161.04 level, where a near-term lower channel trend line may coincide with a key Fibonacci retracement level. Apple daily chart Source: IG charts IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. 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The weekend premium was deflated on Monday as markets look to the Fed; oil heads lower after respecting resistance at $89 a barrel and EU data underscores growth slowdown in major economies. Source: Bloomberg Commodities Price of oil Petroleum Brent Crude Oil Investment Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg | Publication date: Tuesday 31 October 2023 03:55 Oil starts the week on the back foot Oil prices were bid on Friday, retesting the $89 per barrel level once again. Two days prior, the same narrow intra-day range was observed between $87 and $89 where prices has remained. However, today oil dropped sharply back to $87 once it became clear that the war in the Middle East had not escalated to a full ground invasion – a chance markets have not been willing to take. In fact, oil and gold had shown a tendency to rise into the weekend as traders positioned for the worst. Monday then represents a period of reflection and slight relief seeing that a massive operation was avoided or delayed. Market focus shifts from supply to demand Oil has also shown a lower sensitivity to news flow from the region after OPEC distanced itself from political responses after Iran called for an oil embargo on Israel. The focus appears to have become less about supply uncertainties and more about waning global demand for oil as major economies struggle under restrictive conditions. EU data this morning revealed another quarterly contraction in Germany, narrowly avoiding another technical recession after Q2 GDP came in flat. The negative outlook for growth is likely to feed into a lower global demand for oil which may see prices ease into the end of the year. The 30-minute chart shows the oil price drop on a more magnified level, now testing the $87 level. Brent crude 30-minute chart Source: TradingView Brent crude oil technical analysis The daily chart shows the multi-day consolidation after invalidating the ascending channel. The direction of the commodity remains uncertain as incoming data shifts the focus from one concern to the next. However, oil supply in the region has been unaffected and therefore, concerns linked to the global growth slowdown may soon outweigh supply concerns, placing downward pressure on oil. A tight oil market should ensure prices do not drop too low, possibly facilitating range bound setups. Brent crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView IG client sentiment WTI oil sentiment data below can be used as a proxy for Brent crude oil. US crude: Retail trader data shows 77.02% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.35 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests oil - US crude prices may continue to fall. IG client sentiment chart Source: DailyFX This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

A bullish pennant breakout is currently being tested with bitcoin; and a golden cross – 50-/200-day SMA crossover has been formed as a SEC decision on ETF bitcoin products awaits Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Bitcoin Market sentiment ETF Technical analysis Nick Cawley | Analyst, DailyFX, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 October 2023 05:09 We have been optimistic on bitcoin over the past few weeks due to a cluster of positive fundamental drivers. The main driver is the growing ‘matter of when not if’ decision on spot bitcoin ETF product with a raft of heavyweight names, including BlackRock and Fidelity, waiting for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to give them the green light. There are currently nine spot bitcoin ETF applications sitting on the SEC’s desk, and the regulator may have to grant all of them a green light at the same time, to prevent any one firm from getting a first mover’s advantage. Bitcoin technical analysis The technical outlook for bitcoin looks positive with two bullish indicators seen on the charts. The recent surge higher has seen a bullish pennant pattern appear, with BTC currently trying to break higher. If a traditional pattern has been made, the October 23rd, $5k candle would be added to the breakout, giving a target price of around $40k. The chart also shows a 50-/200-day bullish crossover (Golden Cross), another potential driver of higher prices. The crossover is seen by some technical analysts as a trigger for higher prices due to the potential for a bullish trend continuation. As long as bitcoin stays above $32,832 in the short term, the move higher should continue. A confirmed sell-off would eye a final target at $30k. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

AUD/USD outperforms; after a run of hawkish RBA communique and news from China that NPC approved a mid-year expansion to its central budget for the first time since the Asian Financial crisis in 1998. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Federal Reserve Inflation Financial crisis Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 31 October 2023 07:58 A notable end to last week for the AUD/USD as it outperformed, despite a wave of risk aversion flows, which hit asset market ahead of the weekend on concerns around higher bond yields and the conflict in the Middle East. The AUD/USD’s outperformance last week follows a run of hawkish RBA communique that was initially observed in their meeting minutes released in Mid-October - and a sequence of stronger-than-expected economic data in recent weeks that has included: In September the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.6% vs 3.7% expected Q3 Inflation (trimmed mean) increased to 5.2%YoY vs 5.0% expected Q3 PPI rose by 1.8% vs 0.4% previous Q2 GDP printed at 2.1% YoY vs 1.6% expected Retail sales for September increased by 0.9% vs 0.3% expected. RBA might increase rates due to an increase of Q3 inflation data The stronger data has raised expectations the RBA will raise rates by 25bp to 4.35% when it meets next week. An RBA rate hike would contrast with the Fed, which is expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday's FOMC meeting, and provide softer forward guidance, which will likely see it keep rates on hold into year-end. The divergence in central bank expectations between the Fed and the RBA, which has provided support for the AUD/USD is being reinforced by news out of China last week. Which said that the NPC approved a mid-year expansion to its central budget for the first time since the Asian Financial crisis in 1998. AUD/USD technical analysis The weekly candle that formed last week displays a loss of momentum type that suggests the AUD/USD is trying to base at last week's .6270 low. AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView However, as viewed on the daily chart below, there is a good layer of short-term resistance at .6400c coming from recent highs and more significant resistance at .6520/30 from highs in August and September. The AUD/USD needs to break above both these layers of resistance to confirm a trend reversal is underway. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.