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Fundamental and technical outlook on the Rolls-Royce share price. Source: Bloomberg Shares Price Roll-Royce Candlestick Share price Income Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 29 November 2023 13:09 Rolls-Royce surges to a three year high on ambitious plans Engineer Rolls-Royce has already seen its shares surge 80% this year, but the firm’s plans for the future could provide further upside impetus. Rolls-Royce, the renowned British engineering company, has reached a new three-year high following its recent update. The firm has outlined its plans to enhance operating profit and margins, aiming to fortify its position as a stronger and more resilient entity. This strategic move is undoubtedly attracting attention from investors who value stability and growth. One notable aspect of Rolls-Royce's recovery is the steady rebound of its total revenues from the adverse effects of the pandemic. As the global economy gradually recovers, the company's financials are reflecting this positive trend. This is a testament to the resilience and adaptability of the firm, as it navigates the challenges posed by the ongoing crisis. Furthermore, income investors are eagerly awaiting the return of dividends from Rolls-Royce, which is expected to occur next year. The prospect of receiving a share of the company's profits is undoubtedly enticing for those seeking a reliable income stream. This development not only signals the company's confidence in its future prospects but also serves as a positive signal for the broader market. Investors have certainly shown optimism in the past six months, driving up the stock of Rolls-Royce by 80 percent. This surge has been driven by hopes the management team can hit their ambitious targets. However, despite this impressive rally, Rolls-Royce still lags behind its rival Safran in terms of valuation. The market currently values Rolls-Royce at a one-quarter discount to Safran based on projected earnings for the year 2025. This discrepancy suggests that investors are not fully convinced that Rolls-Royce will be able to deliver on its targets and close the gap with its competitor, though if it can make progress the shares could make further strides higher. Analyst ratings for Rolls-Royce Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Rolls-Royce – 4 strong buy, 6 buy and 8 hold - with the mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 255.76 pence for the share, 2% below where it is trading at the moment (29 November 2023). Source: Refinitiv Technical outlook on the Rolls-Royce’s share price The Rolls-Royce share price is on track to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2014-to-2020 decline at 287.6p, above which lies the July 2016 peak at 300.4p. Rolls-Royce Monthly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView The acceleration to the upside seen since Tuesday in an already steep uptrend points to further upside being seen in the near future as momentum usually takes a while to fade. While last week’s reaction low at 234.5p underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the short-term uptrend will remain intact. The longer-term uptrend will stay valid as long as the Rolls-Royce share price trades above its 196.45p late-October low. Rolls-Royce Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Fundamental and technical outlook on the easyJet share price ahead of Tuesday’s full-year earnings. Source: Bloomberg Shares EasyJet Price Airline Ryanair Price–earnings ratio Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 November 2023 17:42 What to expect from easyJet’s full-year earnings The recent financial performance of easyJet has been a mixed bag. While the airline reported a "record summer" and forecasted a strong pre-tax profit for fourth quarter (Q4), the full-year profit outlook fell short of expectations. Factors such as strike actions and increased competition have contributed to this disparity. Additionally, rising global fuel prices, triggered by the Hamas attack in October, have negatively impacted passenger numbers. However, there are signs of improvement in the industry. Ryanair, one of easyJet's major competitors, has forecasted a record annual profit, citing a significant increase in airfares during the warmer months. This positive outlook for Ryanair reflects an overall recovery in the air travel sector. On Tuesday, easyJet will confirm its annual profit before tax within the previously provided range. This announcement will be crucial for shareholders, as the airline's board has committed to distributing 10% of profits after tax to them. However, analysts and investors will likely be more interested in easyJet's forecasts for 2024, considering the impact of rising fuel prices and the war in Palestine on the airline's performance and demand for winter sun destinations. EasyJet's hedging strategy will also play a vital role in navigating the challenges posed by rising fuel prices. The company has already secured hedging for a significant portion of its fuel needs for the first and second halves of fiscal year 2024. The recovery of easyJet is a complex endeavour, given the fierce competition in the short-haul market and the difficulty of passing on rising costs to passengers. However, the airline's management has been proactive in maintaining a competitive edge. Strategic moves, such as upgrading the fleet through a substantial Airbus order and expanding the easyJet holidays operation, demonstrate their commitment to success. It is worth noting, though, that easyJet has posted three consecutive years of losses, although these losses have been narrowing from £1.03bn in 2021 to £208m in 2022. The company's anticipated pre-tax profits of between £440m and £460m for the current year mark another step in the right direction. From a valuation perspective, easyJet's shares appear to be good value, with relatively low forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.6 times earnings and 7.2 times for 2024 as well as an expected yield of over 3% for 2024. After all, easyJet was posting steadily rising profits before the pandemic struck. Looking at easyJet's competitors, both Ryanair and Wizz Air have reported an increase in passenger numbers, indicating a rebound in air traffic. Ryanair, in particular, has shown resilience in its financial performance and passenger volumes. Its robust traffic growth and improved load factor have contributed to a significant increase in profit after tax. easyJet analyst ratings Data from Reuters Refinitiv shows that of the 20 analysts who currently cover easyJet, two have a ‘strong buy’, nine a ‘buy’, seven a ‘hold’, one a ‘sell’ and one a ‘strong sell’ rating. The average analyst recommendation thus sits between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’ with a mean target price at 639.74 pence, approximately 56% higher than the current price (as of 27 November 2023).  Source: Refinitiv easyJet technical analysis The easyJet share price, which has risen by around 24% year-to-date, not only greatly outperforms the FTSE 100 but also British Airways’ owner International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) and budget airline Wizzair but lags its direct competitor Ryanair with its 40% year-to-date gains. Source: Google Analytics When looking at a monthly candlestick chart the easyJet share price is trading around its 2020 pandemic lows but so far remains above its October 2022 decade low at 276.9 pence. For a long-term bullish reversal to occur, a rise and ideally a monthly close above the current November peak at 445.6p would need to occur. In this case the 2020-to-2023 downtrend line would be broken through as well with the May peak at 534.8p being back in sight. easyJet Monthly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView For the shorter-term October-to-November uptrend to remain valid, the easyJet share price needs to hold above its mid-November low at 390.5p on a daily chart closing basis. Failure there could lead to the October trough at 350.0p being revisited. EasyJet Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView Immediate resistance between the October and current November highs at 445.6p to 450.7p will need to be overcome, and ideally the August-to-September peaks at 462p to 464.4p for a bullish reversal to become longer-term plausible. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 begin week on a quiet note Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 following Thanksgiving weekend. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 November 2023 11:48 FTSE 100 remains side-lined Last week the FTSE 100 traded sideways below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,505 and this week is expected to continue to do so, at least for a few more days. While the UK blue chip index stays above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, though, it remains within a gradual uptrend, targeting its recent 7,516 high. If bettered, the current November peak at 7,535 will be in focus ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,587. Below Tuesday’s 7,446 low, minor support can be seen around the mid-November low at 7,403 and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 continues to play with the 16,000 mark The DAX 40 continues to flirt with the psychological 16,000 mark ahead of Germany’s consumer confidence data, out on Tuesday. The August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 thus continue to act as a short-term resistance zone. If overcome, the early and mid-July highs at 16,187 to 16,211 would be targeted next. Minor support is seen around last Monday’s high at 15,955 and at Tuesday’s 15,880 low. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 consolidates below its current 4,569 November peak The sharp November rally in the S&P 500 has lost upside momentum amid the Thanksgiving holiday with little volume being traded, something which may continue on Cyber Monday as the economic calendar looks light with US new homes sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Resistance is seen at the current November peak at 4,569 and immediate support at Wednesday’s 4,535 low. Further potential support can be spotted at the 4,524 mid-November high. Only a currently unexpected rise above the recent 4,569 high could put the July peak at 4,607 on the cards. Source: ProRealTime

Gold price rises while oil and natural gas prices fall back Gold has begun the week with a move above $2000, but oil and natural gas have come under pressure once more. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 November 2023 11:36 Gold clambers above $2000 The price has moved above $2000 in early trading today, and has moved (briefly) above the highs from the first half of October. This has continued the rally from the higher low established in early November, and now appears to open the way to the highs of May at $2060. Sellers will need a reversal back below $1960 to indicate another attempt to test the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is underway. Source: ProRealTime WTI falls at start of the week After repeatedly attempting to move back above the 200-day SMA over the past three weeks, the price is once again on a lower trajectory. The November lows around $72.60 are the next target. A close below this would also put the price below the highs of May and June that marked resistance before crude’s summer rally. Additional downside then beckon towards the June lows at $67.40. Buyers will need a move back above the 200-day SMA to establish a short-term low. This might then see the price target $81 once more. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas falls below 100-day moving average Natural gas’ decline from the highs of late October continues, putting severe pressure on the uptrend of the last few months. The price has opened below the 100-day SMA for the first time since early June, and currently sits at its lowest level since early October. More declines would target the 200-day SMA, while a move above 3130 would be needed to put the price back above trendline resistance from the late October high. Source: ProRealTime

US equities soar to multi-month highs, VIX at 2020 lows; global optimism prevails amid challenges. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Commodities United States dollar Euro United States IG Analyst | Publication date: Monday 27 November 2023 08:05 Optimism prevails: fresh highs in US markets amidst low VIX and global rate sentiment Markets continue to adopt a risk-on stance, as various US equity markets achieve fresh multi-month highs. The VIX 'fear gauge' is currently at lows not witnessed since the beginning of 2020, having dropped by over 46% from its late-October peak. A prevailing sentiment suggests that global interest rates have reached their zenith, contributing to an optimistic outlook. Anticipated rate cuts by the end of Q2 2024 could potentially extend the upward trend in the coming months. VIX daily chart Source: TradingView The US dollar remains on the backfoot, and is within touching distance of making a fresh multi-month low, despite US Treasury yields edging higher. Next week there is a large sale of two, five, and seven-year US treasuries and it seems that the market is pushing for higher yields before the $148 billion of paper hits the street. US treasuries and their sell date Source: Fed British pound weekly forecast: data and monetary policy align, doubts remain The British pound is back at highs not seen since early September against the United States dollar. Indeed, it looks perhaps surprisingly comfortable above $.1.25 on its twin pillars of monetary support and, as rarely of late, economic data. Gold, silver hold the high ground as oil prices eye a recovery Gold and silver prices enjoyed a positive week as buyers kept both metals supported with a struggling US dollar helping as well. Both gold and silver threatened a selloff this week, but buyers kept prices steady for the majority of what was a shortened trading week. Looking at gold though, and the failure to find acceptance above the $2000/oz mark could leave the precious metal vulnerable heading into next week. Euro forecast: EUR/USD and EUR/GBP week ahead outlooks FX markets have been relatively quiet overall in a holiday-shortened week, with the British pound the notable exception. The Euro has edged higher against the US dollar, consolidating its recent gains, while the single currency has struggled against the British pound, and is back at lows last seen over two weeks ago. US dollar forecast: growth and inflation to extend the USD sell-off? The dollar has been moving lower, in a similar fashion to US yields and US economic data as the world’s largest economy appears to be feeling the effects of tight financial conditions. Labor data has eased since the October NFP report, retail sales, and CPI data dropped and overall sentiment data has been revised lower too. There are a few high-impact economic data releases on the calendar next week with the 2nd look at US GDP and Euro Area and US inflation the standouts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also speaks at the end of the week. Economic data releases Source: DailyFX This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

AUD/USD gains 1.07%, reaching four-month high. Hawkish RBA, softer USD, and economic data drive momentum. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Australian dollar Inflation Consumer price index Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 27 November 2023 06:55 Last week saw a second straight week of gains for the AUD/USD, closing 1.07% higher at .6585, its highest weekly close in four months. The AUD/USD rally persisted as the USD slid post-weaker-than-anticipated US CPI data. Improved global risk sentiment, coupled with hawkish RBA tones and news of Chinese government support for struggling property developers, further fuelled the local unit's strength. Whether that run will be extended will depend, to some extent, on the release of two key pieces of Australian economic data. The first of which is retail sales on Tuesday and the monthly CPI indicator on Wednesday. What to expect from monthly CPI indicator Earlier this month, the RBA raised the cash rate by 25bp to 4.35%. The RBA's first rate rise since June was widely expected after Q3 inflation surprised to the upside. The past week, RBA communique has taken a more hawkish tilt, with the minutes from the board meeting noting that the bank's latest forecasts "were predicated on an additional one to two increases in the cash rate over coming quarters." Speaking at the annual ABE dinner in Sydney last Wednesday night, RBA Governor Michele Bullock struck another hawkish note, stating that inflation remains too high and is "increasingly homegrown." This week, the market is looking for the monthly CPI indicator to fall to 5.2% YoY from 5.6% in September. Presuming the monthly indicator does not surprise to the upside, the RBA will more than likely stay on hold at its meeting in December. However, with inflation still well above the RBA's 2-3% target, there is good reason why the interest rate market is assigning a 45% chance the RBA will hike rates by 25bp in February to 4.60%. Monthly CPI indicator chart Source: TradingEconomics AUD/USD technical analysis After four unsuccessful attempts, the AUD/USD broke through the .6520/30 resistance last week, only to encounter resistance at .6590, stemming from the 200-day moving average While there is a likelihood that the AUD/USD could establish a medium-term low around October's .6270, we refrain from initiating new long positions before crossing the 200-day moving average (currently at .6585) and ahead of crucial Australian and US inflation data releases However, post the data, should the AUD/USD see a sustained break above the 200-day moving average at .6585/00, it opens the way for the rally to extend towards the next important layer of resistance at .6800/20. Downside support is viewed at .6520/00. Source: TradingView Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 27 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 27 November Axel Rudolph's insight This week sees the release of US new and pending home sales, consumer confidence, quarter 3 gross domestic product growth (second estimate), personal income, ISM manufacturing PMI and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book and preferred Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index. In Europe, German consumer confidence, unemployment and retail sales as well as inflation data will be key and in the Eurozone economic sentiment. Japan industrial production, retail sales, unemployment and consumer confidence will be worth monitoring as will China’s manufacturing data. On the earnings front Topps Tiles, EasyJet, Halfords and Mulberry will report in the UK and HP, Dollar Tree and Dell in the US. Economic reports Weekly view Monday 3pm – US new home sales (October): sales rose 12.3% in September. Markets to watch: USD crosses Tuesday 7am – German GfK consumer confidence (December): confidence index expected to rise to -26 from -28.1. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 3pm – US consumer confidence (November): previous reading 102.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses Wednesday 1pm – Germany inflation (November, preliminary): prices expected to rise 3.7% YoY from 3.8% and 0.1% from 0% MoM. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate): expected to be 4.9% QoQ. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 24 November): stockpiles rose by 8.7 million barrels last week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Thursday 1.30am – China PMI (November): manufacturing PMI to rise to 49.9 from 49.5, and non-manufacturing expected to rise to 51.5 from 50.6. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses 7.45am – French CPI (November): price growth expected to slow to 3.8% from 4%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 8.55am – German unemployment rate (November): forecast to hold at 5.8%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 10am – eurozone inflation (November): previous reading 2.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 25 November), PCE price index: claims to rise by 213K versus 209K previously; PCE price index to rise 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY, down from 0.4% and 3.4% respectively. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.30pm – Canada GDP (Q3): expected to be flat quarter-on-quarter. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 2.45pm – Chicago PMI (November): index to rise to 45. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US pending home sales (October): sales rose 1.1% MoM in September. Markets to watch: USD crosses Friday 1.45am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (November): forecast to rebound into expansion territory, at 50.2, from 49.5. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses 1.30pm – Canada employment report (November): unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.8%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (November): previous reading 46.7 Markets to watch: USD crosses Company announcements Monday 27 November Tuesday 28 November Wednesday 29 November Thursday 30 November Friday 01 December Full-year earnings Topps Tiles, easyjet Half/ Quarterly earnings Pets at home, Hewlett Packard, Dollar Tree, Workday Halfords, Pennon, Snowflake, Foot Locker Dr Martens, Mulberry, Remy Cointreau, Dell, Kroger, Salesforce Trading update* Safestore Dividends FTSE 100: 3i, Severn Trent FTSE 250: Hill & Smith, Diversified Energy Co, Bellway, Alliance Trust, AVI Global, Oxford Instruments, Telecom Plus, Johnson Matthey, FirstGroup Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 27 November Tuesday 28 November Wednesday 29 November Thursday 30 November Friday 01 December Monday 04 December FTSE 100 2.11 Australia 200 0.8 0.9 0.4 Wall Street 36.5 14.0 14.8 US 500 0.02 0.79 1.38 0.39 0.01 0.22 Nasdaq 0.07 1.42 3.99 0.55 0.15 0.39 Netherlands 25 EU Stocks 50 2.0 China H-Shares 0.6 0.5 Singapore Blue Chip Hong Kong HS50 1.0 1.6 0.9 2.1 South Africa 40 23.0 Italy 40 Japan 225

Brent crude oil, gold and silver muted amid low volume trading Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver as Thanksgiving holiday leads to drop in volatility amid low volume trading. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 November 2023 12:57 Brent crude oil volatility drops further still Brent crude oil’s volatility is on the wane following a dispute among OPEC+ members over output quotas and the postponement of this weekend’s meeting to the 30 November clouded the supply outlook. The oil price remains below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.10 per barrel but may still reach the October low and mid-November high at $83.12 to $83.79 over the coming days. If bettered, the early November low at $84.53 could be in sight, as well as the $85.89 late October low. Support is seen around the psychological $80 mark and the 8 November low at $79.18. Source: ProRealTime Gold price trades around the $2,000 mark Gold’s advance from its $1,932 per troy ounce low has come close to its October peak at $2,009 without so far being able to overcome it. Once that is the case, the August 2020, March 2022 and May 2023 peaks at $2,070 to $2,082 would likely be in focus. Potential slips may find support around the mid-November high at $1,993 ahead of the June and July peaks at $1,987 to $1,983. Source: ProRealTime Silver price consolidates below its recent high at $24.14 The price of spot silver stalls below last week’s $24.14 per troy ounce high and the May-to-November downtrend line at $24.18. If exceeded, the June peak at $24.52 could be back in the picture. Support can be seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.31 and Monday’s low at $23.25. While it underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the short-term uptrend will stay intact. Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40, Nasdaq 100 on track for fourth straight week of gains while FTSE 100 lags Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 amid low volume Thanksgiving holiday trading. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 November 2023 11:14 FTSE 100 continues to be side-lined The FTSE 100 continues to be range bound below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,505. Despite UK consumer confidence rising in November a negative bias has been seen since the start of the day. While the UK blue chip index stays above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, it remains within a gradual uptrend, targeting last Friday’s 7,516 high. If overcome, the current November peak at 7,535 will be eyed ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,589. Below Tuesday’s 7,446 low minor support can be seen around last Thursday’s low at 7,430, and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 continues to flirt with the 16,000 mark The DAX 40 continues to play with the psychological 16,000 mark despite Germany's economy contracting 0.1% in the third quarter, reversing its 0.1% growth in the previous quarter, ahead of today's IFO business climate index. The August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 continue to act as a short-term resistance zone which caps. Minor support below Thursday’s high at 15,867 can be made out at last Thursday’s 15,710 low. Further down meanders the 200-day simple moving average at 15,673. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 consolidates below its recent near two-year high The Nasdaq 100’s stiff rally off its late October low has this week briefly taken the index to 16,126, a level last traded in January 2022, before consolidating in low volume ahead of the prolonged Thanksgiving weekend. With US markets shut for the second half of the day, the index is expected to trade in very little volume within a tight range but remains on track for its fourth straight week of gains. The July high at 15,932 offers potential support while Monday’s 16,065 high may cap. A rise into year-end above 16,126 would put the December 2021 high at 16,660 on the map. Source: ProRealTime

Bitcoin stays below $38k in rangebound trade; crypto remains calm despite Binance's record fine and a new CEO. Surprisingly, Coinbase advances, positioning itself as an unlikely winner in the market. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Binance Coinbase Cryptocurrency Bitcoin IG Analyst | Publication date: Friday 24 November 2023 07:01 Bitcoin rallied sharply yesterday after threatening to break support at the 35,500 level. Yesterday’s aggressive rebound came within a whisker of the 38,000 mark, before struggling to break higher today. It seems the current range may be here to stay a while longer. Binance fine, as its CEO CZ steps down and Coinbase emerge as winners It has been a dynamic week in the cryptocurrency realm, with significant developments at Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, taking center stage. The imminent departure of Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ, from the CEO position in favor of Richard Teng made headlines. In a statement on the X platform, Zhao emphasized that this transition is in the best interest of himself, Binance, and the broader crypto community. Notably, he concluded by affirming that the arrangements with US regulators do not involve allegations of misappropriation of user funds or market manipulation. In addition to appointing a new CEO, Binance faces a $4.3 billion fine, prompting concerns about the company's well-being. Incoming CEO Richard Teng swiftly allayed worries, highlighting robust revenues and profits. Teng further emphasized the company's strong fundamentals, boasting a debt-free capital structure and modest expenses. An intriguing exchange ensued on X platform between Binance's CEO and Coinbase director Conor Grogan. Grogan suggested, based on the proof of reserves document shared by Teng, that Binance might need to sell crypto assets. Binance refuted this claim, asserting that the reserves are sufficient for the repayment program. Binance incoming CEO Richard Teng and Coinbase director, Conor Grogan's exchange on X Source: X Coinbase triumphs: leading 2023 with ETF optimism, outperforming competitors, eyes pivotal 2024 Observing Coinbase, a compelling narrative unfolds. Despite recent challenges, the US exchange emerges as the standout winner in 2023 amidst competitor setbacks. The announcement of the Spot Bitcoin ETF application, with Coinbase as the storage partner, positions the platform as a beneficiary. Growing speculation around ETF approval, combined with a recent recovery in US equities, propels Coinbase into a successful streak. Further validating this belief is the recent metrics from both Coinbase and Binance which showed a sharp uptick in Bitcoin Holdings for the former, while the latter’s Bitcoin Holdings continues to slide. A Bitcoin ETF approval might add a further layer of credibility to Coinbase and 2024 could be a huge year for the exchange and equally as important for Binance. A brief look at the Coinbase chart below and you can see that share price has been on a steady rise since bottoming out at around the $30 mark in January, before a double bottom pattern in June helped the share price return to July highs around the 109.00 handle. Given the promising fundamentals for Coinbase and the potential ETF approval, it would take a wise man to bet against further gains in the coming months. Coinbase daily chart Source: TradingView Bitcoin technical outlook and final thoughts From a technical standpoint, BTCUSD is interesting as it hovers just below the $38k mark. Nothing much has changed from a technical standpoint. The 38,000 mark remains a stumbling block to further upside and I fear the longer we stall at this level, the greater the likelihood for a selloff becomes. Resistance levels: 38,000 40,000 42,500 Support levels: 36,200 35,500-35,200 34,177 BTCUSD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Gold expected to show restrained movement over Thanksgiving amid light trading; XAU/USD faces challenges surpassing $2000 amid ceasefire, impacted by USD and treasury yields, with market adjusting rate cut expectations. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities Gold United States dollar United States Investment Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg | Publication date: Friday 24 November 2023 05:00 Gold expected to underwhelm this thanksgiving weekend Gold prices experienced an early uptick in trading but struggled to sustain the momentum, given the anticipated light activity during the Thanksgiving long weekend. Despite multiple attempts, gold has faced challenges surpassing the $2000 threshold, with two instances of reaching $2010 followed by immediate downturns. A slight strengthening of the dollar yesterday exerted pressure on gold prices, triggered by November's initial jobless claims missing expectations. Despite recent weaker fundamental data from the US over the past three weeks, the jobless claims figures suggest a robust labour market. Navigating ceasefire dynamics between Israel and Hamas The looming question for gold revolves around the recently brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, designed to facilitate the safe passage of hostages and prisoners. This agreement marks a significant diplomatic achievement since the 7 October attack, and only time will reveal whether it signals a substantial step towards further agreements and the facilitation of aid into the most affected regions. Resistance remains at $2010 with nearby support at $1985, followed by the 200 SMA and the $1937 level. Gold daily chart Source: TradingView The weekly chart highlights the recent difficulty to surpass the $2010 level, but still reveals the bullish trend remains intact. However, the recent swing low and the inability to mark a higher high, hints at a period of potential consolidation as the RSI heads lower. Gold weekly chart Source: TradingView USD and yields to play further role after markets lower rate cut expectations for 2024 Following cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, both the US dollar and treasury yields declined, triggering widespread speculation about the timing and scale of next year's potential rate cuts. At its peak, market expectations surged to 100 basis points of hikes, surpassing the Federal Reserve's recent forecast of 50 bps. The more resilient labour market data this week has helped to temper those expectations by a full 25 bps cut, now seeing 85 bps by the end of next year. Gold tends to exhibit an inverse relationship with the dollar and US yields as they represent the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing metal. Fedwatch chart Source: Refinitiv This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

European markets head for a lower open following a mixed Asian session as investors assess Japan's 3.3% inflation rate, the highest in three months, and as manufacturing shrinks below market forecasts for a sixth month. Germany's economy contracts 0.1% in the third quarter, reversing its 0.1% growth in the previous quarter ahead of today's IFO business climate index. In the UK consumer confidence rises in November. A quiet session is expected to be seen as stock markets are open for a half day on Black Friday in the US with the only data to be published being the US manufacturing and services PMI for November. Nonetheless major stock indices remain on track for their fourth consecutive week of gains.

Hi @ModestInvestor Thanks for sharing All the best - MongiIG

European stocks remain bid following a sharp fall in US initial jobless claims and durable goods orders but are expected to trade in low volumes due to holidays in Japan and the US until the weekend. Further government support for the battered Chinese property sector helped the Shanghai index rise by about half a percentage point while the Eurozone, France, Germany and the UK are focusing on their manufacturing and services PMIs. The oil price took a hit as this weekend's OPEC+ meeting has been pushed back to the 30 November.

RBA minutes paint a more hawkish outlook as Governor Bullock hints that inflation fight is far from over; AUD/USD eyes retracement after printing higher. What is GBP/AUD’s and Aussie’s outlook? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Inflation Australian dollar AUD/USD GBP/AUD IG Analyst | Publication date: Thursday 23 November 2023 05:41 Australian dollar fundamental backdrop The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently published the minutes from its latest meeting, during which the central bank implemented a 25 basis points hike. Surprisingly, the Australian dollar experienced a sell-off in the wake of the rate increase, a development that, upon scrutinizing the minutes, proves somewhat unexpected. The disclosed minutes highlighted that the hike aimed to mitigate the risk of a "larger monetary policy response," given the persistently high inflation and robust economy. Inflation risks amidst peaks and challenges Furthermore, the minutes underscored that inflation risks continue to lean towards the upside, despite recent remarks by RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicating that inflation may have peaked. However, the Governor acknowledged that bringing inflation within the target range will present an ongoing challenge for the economy and could extend over a two-year period. This aligns with my consistent belief that inflation seldom recedes sufficiently, with certain items retaining elevated prices while others may become more affordable. I anticipate that some of the recent global inflationary pressures may become entrenched, making the forthcoming months particularly intriguing for central banks. Resilient Australian dollar Despite the initial sell-off following the rate hike, the Australian dollar has maintained relative strength. I anticipate this trend to persist, as hinted by Governor Bullock, attributing the economy's resilience to robust demand. According to Governor Bullock, the labor market is expected to remain robust, which, in turn, could sustain demand and pose upside risks to inflation. Interest rate dynamics: RBA's strategic positioning Considering an interest rate comparison, the RBA remains well-positioned to implement another rate hike if deemed necessary. As illustrated in the chart below, the RBA currently enjoys the lowest rates compared to the UK, EU, and the United States. RBA's rates compared to the UK, EU, and the United States chart Source: TradingView We did have some data a short while ago, as well with the release of the Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash numbers. Manufacturing and Services both declined slightly from the October print, but seemed to have little immediate impact on the Australian dollar. Economic Calender Source: DailyFX AUD/USD technical analysis AUD/USD has been on an impressive rally since the central bank raised rates; and we had an initial selloff to retest support at the 0.6350 mark. Since then, AUD/USD has exploded, printing a fresh higher and keeping the overall bullish structure going. AUD/USD also remains with a long-term descending channel but may find it hard to push on from here without some form of retracement. Resistance has been provided by the 200-day MA at the 0.6600 level. The issue for sellers is that there remains a lot of downside support as well, which could hamper a sustained move lower. It would also appear that a golden cross pattern may be developing as the 20-day MA eyes a cross above the 100-day MA, which would be a nod to potential bullish continuation. Personally, I would prefer some form of retracement here before potentially joining the trend, as we have just printed a higher high. I will be keeping a close eye on support at 0.6484, 0.6440 and 0.6400 for potential long opportunities. A break and daily candle close below the 0.6350 mark will be needed for a change in structure, and this would then invalidate the bullish setup. Key levels to keep an eye on Support levels: 0.6484 0.6445 0.6400 Resistance levels: 0.6594 0.6650 0.6691 AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView GBP/AUD technical analysis GBP/AUD has been rangebound for the best part of two months. For many pairs a 400-pip range is quite large, but in the case of an exotic like GBP/AUD it is not. As things stand, there is a clearly defined range and some key areas of support and resistance which may be used for potential opportunities in the interim. Support on the downside rests at the 1.9000 handle, and just below at the 1.8950 mark. A move lower also brings the possibility that we may spike slightly lower to tap into the 200-day MA at 1.8911. Key levels that may provide resistance for potential shorts will be the 1.9211 area and then the 1.9278 before the range high at 1.9338 comes into focus. All these levels may provide an opportunity for potential shorts, as even a breakout will only serve to improve the risk to reward ratio. GBP/AUD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

FTSE 100, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 consolidate ahead of Thanksgiving Outlook on FTSE 100, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 as US earnings season draws to a close. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 November 2023 12:06 FTSE 100 consolidates below last week’s high The FTSE 100’s recent attempts to reach last week’s high at 7,535 have so far failed with the index being capped by the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,505 as US futures and Asian stocks mostly decline after Nvidia earnings which practically mark the end of the US earnings season ahead of Thanksgiving. While the UK blue chip index remains above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, it remains in an uptrend, though, and is more likely to revisit Friday’s 7,516 high than to revert lower. Further up beckons the current November peak at 7,535, a rise above which would target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,595. Minor support can be found around the 9 November high at 7,466 ahead of Tuesday’s 7,446 low. Further down lies Thursday’s 7,430 low, followed by the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 advance stalls around the September peak at 4,540 The sharp rally in the S&P 500 has reached the early and mid-September highs at 4,516 to 4,540 around which it is losing upside momentum after Fed minutes showed no inclination to cut rates by next May. A minor pullback ahead of the prolonged Thanksgiving weekend may thus ensue with the mid-November high at 4,524 being revisited. Further minor support sits at the 11 September high at 4,491 and still further down around the 24 August high at 4,474. A rise above this week’s 4,557 high would put the 4,607 July high on the cards. Source: ProRealTime Russell 2000 range trades below its 1,833 current November high The Russell 2000, the great underperformer of US stock indices with only a 2% positive performance year-to-date, has been trading in a tight sideways range below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and last week’s high at 1,822 to 1,833 ahead of Thanksgiving. While Thursday’s low at 1,767 underpins, the October-to-November uptrend remains intact. Below it the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1,757 may also act as support, were it to be revisited. Immediate resistance can be seen at Monday’s 1,813 high. A rise above the current 1,833 high would engage the mid-September high at 1,874. Source: ProRealTime

The minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have been released and there appears little appetite for cutting rates anytime in the near future as inflation remains high relative to the target rate. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 November 2023 11:34 The minutes show voting members still worry that inflation could be stubborn or move higher and that more may need to be done to ensure that does not occur. They at least said that policy will need to stay "restrictive" until data shows inflation on a convincing trek back to the central bank's 2% goal. Along with that, however, the minutes showed that members believe they can "proceed carefully" and make decisions "on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks." The release comes amid overwhelming sentiment on Wall Street that the Fed is done hiking. Traders in the fed funds futures market are indicating virtually no probability that policymakers will increase rates again this cycle, and in fact, are pricing in cuts starting in May. Ultimately, the market expects that the Fed will enact the equivalent of four quarter percentage point cuts before the end of 2024. The Federal Reserve In a recent video, the Federal Reserve's discussion about interest rates was revealed. It seems that they are not looking to cut rates in the near future because they are worried about inflation. They want to keep inflation around 2%, but it is currently too high. The members of the board are thinking about taking more action to stop inflation from getting worse. The US dollar When it comes to the USD, it hasn't been doing too well recently. It has become weaker compared to other currencies like the euro. The dollar has reached its lowest point since August, but it might not go up much more. It is expected to keep going down. Right now, it is at 103.24, and the next target price is 102.58, with support levels at 101.40. Gold The weak US dollar has actually been good for the price of gold. Gold has gone up and is now back above $2,000. This increase follows a similar surge at the end of October. If gold can stay at this level for a little while, it could reach record highs achieved on May 3rd at $2,082. So, gold is going up because the dollar is getting weaker. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Brent crude oil stalls ahead of OPEC+ but gold and silver remain bid. Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver ahead of Thanksgiving. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 November 2023 11:21 Brent crude oil volatility falls away Brent crude oil’s swift 7.5% bounce back from last week’s low is beginning to lose upside momentum as volatility seems to be on the wane ahead of Wednesday’s US EIA crude oil inventories and this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. The oil price is now trading back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.14 per barrel and has the October low and mid-November high at $83.12 to $83.79 in its sights. If overcome, the early November low at $84.53 will be in focus, as well as the $85.89 late October low. Support below the 200-day SMA can be seen at the $81.68 late August low ahead of the psychological $80 mark and the 8 November low at $79.18. Source: ProRealTime Gold price approaches its October peak Gold’s advance from its $1,932 per troy ounce low as the US dollar is depreciating amid lower US Treasury yields is approaching its October peak at $2,009. Once bettered, the August 2020, March 2022 and May 2023 peaks at $2,070 to $2,082 will be back in the frame. Potential slips may find support around the mid-November high at $1,993 ahead of the June and July peaks at $1,987 to $1,983. Source: ProRealTime Silver price attacks its recent high at $24.14 The price of spot silver remains on an upward trajectory with last week’s $24.14 per troy ounce high and the May-to-November downtrend line at $24.20 being eyed. If overcome, the June peak at $24.52 should be back in play. Support can be found between the late September and October highs at $23.77 to $23.70. Further potential support can be spotted along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.31 and Monday’s low at $23.25. While it underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the short-term uptrend will stay intact. Source: ProRealTime

Explore the recent challenges faced by US dollar bulls and decipher whether the DXY index's decline signifies a reversal or correction in this comprehensive analysis. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Japanese yen Inflation Recession USD/JPY Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 22 November 2023 05:24 Dollar decline drama It's been a testing few weeks for US dollar bulls. The US dollar index, the DXY, is now down over 3% month to date, the sell-off gaining momentum after the cooler-than-expected inflation print. US dollar weakness in November is generally to be expected. Last year, the USD index, the DXY, fell 5% in November. The USD sell-off coincided with an 8% rally in the S&P 500 during November as the market unwound defensive positioning across multiple asset classes, put on in anticipation of a hard landing. This November, the sell-off in the US dollar and the rally in equities has come following a run of softer economic data across PMIs, Non-Farm Payrolls, and inflation that raises hopes the Fed has ended its rate-hiking cycle and is on track to deliver an elusive soft landing. Is it a reversal or just a correction? While we have likely seen peak growth and interest rates in the US, US growth after the current rebalancing is still expected to outperform, particularly in contrast to the EU and the UK. A situation that will support US earnings, US yields, and the dollar. On the other side of the coin, if a deeper downturn were to eventuate and/or Donald Trump wins the US Presidential election next year, the anticyclical US dollar would likely be supported. Hence, the USD wins again. USD vs. JPY: a wild card The biggest wild card could be the USD against the JPY. While we are inclined to think a multiyear double high is in place for USD/JPY at 151.95ish and that the JPY is beyond cheap, the USD still holds a significant yield advantage over the JPY. Some aggressive normalization of BoJ policy is required for that to change. DXY technical analysis The rally in the US dollar index, the DXY, from the July 99.57 low took the DXY to 107.34, the 50% fibo retracement of the decline from the October 2022 114.78 high to the July 2023 99.57 low. The retreat from the 107.34 high saw the DXY this week test the 200-day moving average, currently at 103.61, the level at which the DXY closed overnight. Given the DXY’s attempt overnight to reclaim support coming from the 200-day moving average and the oversold nature of the decline, we suspect a bounce is looming that sets up some range trading into yearend. A range that might look like something like 103.00 to 105.50ish. If the DXY were to lose the support of the DXY for a sustained period, it would warn that a deeper decline is underway. DXY daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of 22 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Gold eases after last week’s advance – quieter week on the economic calendar and FOMC minutes and reports of a new phase in the Israel-Hamas war present potential catalysts. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities Gold United States dollar XAU/USD Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg | Publication date: Wednesday 22 November 2023 06:08 Gold eases after last week’s advance Gold rose last week to end a two-week run of losses but Friday’s price action laid the ground for a potential move lover this week. Friday’s extended upper wick revealed the early sign of a possible pullback developing at the start of this week. Price action now heads lower, trading down from the $1985 level, with he $1937 level next in view – as support. The $1937 level is significant as it roughly coincides with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). In recent trading days, a weaker dollar and easing US yields (Treasuries) have helped prop up gold prices after hitting a low on November 13th – the day before that softer US CPI print that inspired a dollar selloff. The FOMC minutes offer up a potential catalyst for the precious metal this week as far as it affects the dollar. Other than that it is a relatively quiet week however, a new phase in the Israel-Hamas war could see gold find it feet once more. Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart Source: TradingView Expected 30-day gold volatility continues to drop off a cliff after a brief period of consolidation. The longer this trend continues gold is unlikely to spike higher like we saw at the start of the conflict, but the metal is still in a favourable position to capitalize on further USD selling and lower US yields. Source: TradingView Silver encounters a challenge at channel resistance Silver also posted an impressive week last week, rising up to channel resistance and the (less significant) 50% Fibonacci retracement. Nevertheless, the metal has started the week on the back foot, with a continued drop opening up $22.35 (38.2% Fib) as a possible level of support. A larger move sees channel support come into play at the 23.6% fib retracement, $20.52. Silver (XAG/USD) weekly chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

A look at the “Santa Claus Rally” and which gains it has historically produced. Source: Bloomberg Shares Stock Santa Claus rally Stock market index Market trend United States Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 12:43 Now is the time to buy US stocks According to Jeff Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac now is the time to buy US stock indices as we enter a bullish seasonal pattern today. By analysing data going back to 1950 Mr Hirsch shows that the November-to-January time frame is the year’s best consecutive three-month span to hold stocks. Thanksgiving kicks off this seasonal stock outperformance, followed by the “Santa Claus Rally” which covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the New Year, and the “January Effect” of small caps outperforming large caps in January, which begins in mid-December. Mr Hirsch and his friend Larry McMillan of the Options Strategist have combined “these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year.” Apparently when trading this strategy with options the best day to do so is on the day before Thanksgiving. Since 1950, the S&P 500 is up 79.45% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.57%. The Russell 2000 is up 77.27% of the time since 1979 with an average gain of 3.19%. Thanksgiving - Santa Claus Rally Trading statistics Source: Hirsch Holdings Inc. & StockTradersAlmanac.com There is an important caveat to the “Santa Claus Rally” though, coined by its 1972 inventor Yale Hirsch’s phrase: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” The “Santa Claus Rally” in the current market context When looking at the above strategy in the current context one shouldn’t be surprised if equity indices on both sides of the pond may at least short-term consolidate as liquidity dries up around the prolonged Thanksgiving weekend. After all, with US indices having strongly risen from their late-October lows - by between 8% and 14% in little over three weeks – and looking technically overbought, a minor correction over the coming days shouldn’t come as a surprise. Having said that, such a counter-trend move might represent an even better stock buying opportunity for the above mentioned strategy, especially since the last few days of November tend to lead to stock market gains. Best month of the year chart Source: Carson Investment Research, FactSet 20/11/2023 @ryandetrick This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JPY Weekly Forecast: Cautious Ueda Leaves Yen Exposed Nov 18, 2023 3:00 AM +02:00 Warren Venketas, DailyFX Analyst TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG USD/JPY shows price action finding support off the 50-day moving average (yellow)and below the psychological 150.00 handle. Bears will be looking for a confirmation close below the moving average which could open up more downside. Bearish/negative divergence shown via the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may supplement this outlook but with Japanese fundamentals looking less supportive for the Yen, weak US data may be needed to catalyze this move. Key resistance levels: 151.95 150.00 Key support levels: 50-day MA 148.16 147.37 145.91 145.00

Dow, Nikkei 225 and CAC40 continue to make gains The Dow is at its highest level since the summer, while the Nikkei 225 is contemplating more gains to take it to a multi-decade peak, and the CAC40 has regained the 200-day moving average. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 12:15 Dow above August and September highs The index has surged through the 35,000 level, reaching its highest level since the end of August. The next target is the high from July around 35,680, and would mark the complete recovery of the losses sustained since the end of July. From here the February 2022 high at 35,860 is the next level to watch, and then beyond that comes 36,465 and then the 2022 high 36,954. It would need a move back below the 100-day SMA to put a more substantial dent in the overall bullish view. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 knocks on the door of June highs Monday witnessed the index move to its highest level since the beginning of June. This puts the price above trendline resistance from the June highs, and marks a step-change after the failure to break higher seen in September. Resistance may now becomes support, and the 34,000 level beckons. Such impressive gains in the short-term may put some pressure on the index, but as with the Dow, a reversal below the 100-day SMA would be a necessary first step to dispelling the bullish view. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 back at 200-day MA The index has returned to the 200-day SMA for the first time since mid-September. It has been able to move and hold above the 100-day SMA, and more importantly has moved back above the 7170 area that marked resistance in September and October. This clears the way for a move towards 7400, where rallies in August and September were stalled. Some consolidation back down towards the 50-day SMA could be envisaged, and the index could still create a lower high, with a close below the 50-day SMA suggesting that sellers are in the process of reasserting control. Source: ProRealTime

The Australian dollar is on the rise again this morning, lifted by hawkish comments from its new governor. Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 11:45 In the minutes that followed the decision to raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.35% a fortnight ago, Michele Bullock said that even though there was a credible case to keep rates steady, board members thought there was a risk of inflation rising if rates were not raised. The board also noted that the RBA cash rate remains below main rates of many other countries. (AI Video Transcript) The Australian dollar The AUD has been increasing in value recently because of what the new governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said. A couple of weeks ago, the RBA decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35%. After this decision, Michelle Bullock, the new governor, mentioned that it would make sense to keep rates steady. However, the board members were worried that if rates weren't raised, people might start expecting inflation to increase. The RBA also noticed that the Australian cash rate was still lower than the rates in many other countries. This means that there might be room for more interest rate hikes in the future. Right now, the market thinks there is only a 5% chance of another rate hike in December, but there is a 40% risk implied for a possible rate hike in the new year. The Reserve Bank of Australia The recent increase in the value of the Australian dollar is because of the new governor's strong stance and the possibility of more interest rate hikes. This shows that the RBA is keeping a close eye on inflation expectations and wants to control them. Additionally, considering that the cash rate is lower than other countries, it suggests that the RBA might tighten monetary policy even more in the future. In summary, the Australian dollar is going up because of the new governor's strong comments and the potential for future interest rate increases. The RBA is concerned about rising inflation expectations and wants to make sure their rates are similar to other countries. Even though the market thinks it's unlikely to have another rate hike in December, there is a higher chance for a rate change in the new year. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.