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Markets have been given a double boost from a slowdown in the pace of US and UK inflation. The former had the biggest impact, as investors reacted enthusiastically to the sight of CPI growth slowing in the headline and core readings, and on both the monthly and annual figures. Stocks in the US surged, and equities made headway in Asia as well. This morning's UK inflation figures have repeated the trick, delivering on the UK government's promise to half inflation by the end of the year. The US figures mean that a Fed rate hike in December is almost fully off the cards, with the central bank essentially now in a holding pattern should inflation continue on its current trajectory. The dollar weakened following yesterday's figures, while commodity prices made some gains. Now markets wait to see if today's US PPI figures repeat the good news.

Brent crude oil, US natural gas and Chicago wheat recover Outlook on Brent crude oil, US natural gas and Chicago wheat following OPEC monthly report and shifting weather patterns. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 14 November 2023 12:06 Brent crude oil price drops on weak China data Brent crude oil has risen for three consecutive days as OPEC in its monthly report raised its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2023 to 2.46 million barrels per day, citing solid global growth trends and a healthy oil market. The Brent crude oil price is thus trading back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.26 per barrel and tries to reach the early October low at $83.12 which may at least short-term cap. Support below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) comes in around the $81.68 late August low and the psychological $80 mark as well as at last week’s trough at $79.18. Source: ProRealTime US natural gas futures recover from five-week low US natural gas futures descent from their ten-month high at $3.665 in late October have taken these to last week’s low at $3.125 before shifting weather patterns led to Monday’s sharp rally and Tuesday’s $3.377 high to date. As long as it isn’t overcome, a slip back towards the $3.172 late October low may ensue. Below it Monday’s price gap can be spotted at $3.216 to $3.198 ahead of last week’s low at $3.125. Further down support can be found between the mid-to-late September highs at $3.024 to $3.021 while minor resistance sits at the $3.432 mid-October high. Source: ProRealTime Chicago Wheat prices recover Chicago Wheat prices, which last week rose to $617 on reports that a shipping vessel was struck by a missile upon entering the port of Odessa in Ukraine, slid back to Monday’s $589 low before heaving themselves back above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $592. Further range trading between the two-month high at $620, made in October, and the late October $575 low thus remains on the cards. Above the $575 level potential support can be seen along the September-to-November uptrend line at $584. Source: ProRealTime

Dow, Nikkei 225 and CAC 40 gains slow ahead of US inflation data Outlook on Brent crude oil, US natural gas and Chicago wheat following OPEC monthly report and shifting weather patterns. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 14 November 2023 11:54 Dow breaks trendline resistance The price continued to gain on Monday, moving above trendline resistance from the August highs. This now clears the way for a possible test of the September lower high around 35,000, and then beyond this on towards the August highs at 35,660. After consolidating over the past week around 34,000, the buyers appear to be in charge once again. It would need a reversal back below trendline resistance and below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to suggest a new leg lower could begin. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 consolidates around six-week high Shallow trendline resistance from the June highs appears to be the index’s next target. Having found support last week around the 100-day SMA the index has now resumed its move higher, moving above the high from the beginning of November and fighting off a revival of selling pressure on Monday. After trendline resistance, the index targets 33,500, the September high, and then on to 34,000. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 back above 50-day moving average The recovery goes on here, with the index once more moving above the 50-day SMA. The index is now moving through the lows of the summer around 7100, and the next target becomes the 7170 zone which acted as resistance in late September and early October. A failure to close above 7100 and then a drop back below 7000 might signal that a lower high is in place. Source: ProRealTime

The drug giant has purchased a potential blockbuster obesity drug from Chinese firm Eccogene Source: Bloomberg Shares AstraZeneca Obesity Drug Disease Phases of clinical research Piper Terrett | Financial writer, London | Publication date: Saturday 11 November 2023 13:11 AstraZeneca posted an upbeat set of third quarter results, with strong cancer drug sales making up for declining revenues from Covid-19 related medicines. After currency fluctuations, total revenue rose 5% to $11 billion in the third quarter. This was despite a $2.8 billion fall in Covid-19 product sales. Stripping out sales of Covid-19 products, revenues rose by an encouraging 13% over the period – up 15% over nine months. Revenues from oncology products also increased by 20% in the third quarter, while sales from its rare disease portfolio also increased by 12%. Meanwhile, operating profits rose by 4% to $2 billion during the period. “Our company continued its strong growth trajectory in the third quarter with total revenue from our non‑Covid-19 medicines up 13% compared to last year,” said chief executive officer Pascal Soriot. “We initiated several Phase III trials of high-potential molecules this quarter, including for volrustomig, our PD-1/CTLA-41 bispecific antibody. Our portfolio of bispecifics [a new type of antibody treatment] has the potential to replace the first-generation checkpoint inhibitors across a range of cancers.” The shares rose 3% on Thursday. AstraZeneca buys early stage obesity drug The drug giant has also seen encouraging data from fixed dose combination trials of its product zibotentan with Farxiga which, the company says, could improve treatment outcomes for kidney disease patients. Meanwhile, Soriot also says that the company’s new obesity drug ECC5004 has the potential to help a billion people suffering from cardiometabolic diseases including type-2 diabetes, “both a monotherapy and in combinations.” Diabetes patients typically take a cocktail of medicines to control the disease. AstraZeneca has just purchased the full rights to the product from Chinese company Eccogene in every worldwide territory but China, where the two companies will partner on distribution. The product is in the same class of medicines as Novo Nordisk’s obesity drug Wevgovy but is in early stage trials. Wevgovy is a blockbuster and made around $1.4 billion in sales between July and September 2023 alone. Phase I trials of AstraZeneca’s once-a-day product have so far shown encouraging weight loss compared to the placebo and good tolerability. AstraZeneca raises its earnings guidance On another positive note, Soriot told investors that “given the momentum in the year to date,” AstraZeneca is increasing its full-year revenue guidance. At constant currency rates, total sales for the full-year 2023 – stripping out Covid-19 medicines – are now forecast to increase by a “low-teens percentage”. Meanwhile, core earnings per share (EPS) is now expected to rise by a low double-digit to low teens percentage at constant currency rates. In September, analysts at broker Morgan Stanley increased their price target on the shares to £129 from £127. The shares are down 10% this year to £100.90 and are trading off their three year highs. As such, they are worth watching as the pharmaceutical sector remains a decent port in the current stock market storm. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

A significant drop in energy prices is expected to drive UK headline inflation from its 2022 peak of 11% to 4.7% in October. Meanwhile, the FTSE remains in a holding pattern, eyeing a potential market shift. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Inflation Technical analysis FTSE 100 United Kingdom Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 14 November 2023 05:40 In the current market landscape, attention has pivoted decisively towards the issue of inflation, with a keen focus on the upcoming UK inflation data scheduled to follow hot on the heels of the latest US inflation report. Tackling inflation with heightened rates During its recent meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) acknowledged that heightened interest rates were effectively contributing to the reduction of inflationary pressures. After peaking at an eye-popping 11% in 2022, a large decline in energy prices should see headline inflation fall to 4.7% in October from 6.7% in September. Core inflation is expected to fall to 5.8% in October from 6.1% previously. Cooler inflation data will be supported by good news on wages, expected to show regular earnings eased to 7.7% from 7.8% previously and headline pay falling 0.8pp to 7.3%. Cooling trends in inflation and economic landscape The trend lower in food and energy prices, a cooling labour market, and tepid growth are expected to see headline inflation decline to 2% by the middle of next year; and core inflation to reach 2.5% by the end of 2024. The pace of the decline is expected to allow the BoE to keep its official bank rate on hold at 5.25% into the middle of 2024. FTSE technical analysis The FTSE continues to trade sideways above horizontal support at 7200, and below downtrend resistance at 7650ish, coming from the February 8047 high as well as the 200-day moving average at 7613. If the FTSE can see a sustained break above the resistance layers at 7615/50ish, it would set up a retest of the February 8047 high. Aware that until this occurs, further range trading is likely, including a possible retest of range lows at 7200. FTSE daily chart DAX technical analysis The decline from the August 16,615 high is similar in structure to the decline in the S&P 500 from its high, in that it displays countertrend or corrective traits rather than impulsive. The first indication that the correction in the DAX is complete at the 14,666 low would be a close above the broken uptrend support, now resistance at 15,480ish, coming from the October 2022 11,829 low. It would then require a break above the downtrend resistance currently at 15,550, coming from the July 16,615 high. Finally, it must conquer a layer of resistance at 15,680/720ish from the mid-October high and the 200-day moving average now at 15,720. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 14 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Alibaba Group will announce September quarter results on November 16, 2023, US Eastern Time. Despite its robust financial performance in the past quarter, Alibaba’s stock prices have dropped 20% in the past three months, why? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Alibaba Group China Artificial intelligence United States Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Tuesday 14 November 2023 09:17 Alibaba earnings date Alibaba Group will announce September quarter results on November 16, 2023 7:30 am US Eastern Time (November 16, 2023 8:30 pm Hong Kong Time). Alibaba earnings expectations September Quarter June Quarter YOY EPS($) $2.12 $2.17 17% Revenue ($) $30.79B $32.29B 6% Source: Alibaba Source: Nasdaq Alibaba earnings key watch Alibaba's journey out of its long winter appears to be more bumpy than initially anticipated. After enduring three years of harsh regulatory clampdown from the Chinese government, the tech giant was expected to breathe a new life this year. In the June quarter, Alibaba did deliver a robust result, with a 14% year-over-year increase in revenue to RMB 234,156 million (US$32,292 million). Its income from operations surged by 70%, accompanied by exceptional cash flow: net cash flow provided by operating activities rose by 34%, and free cash flow experienced a remarkable 76% increase. Source: Alibaba Despite its robust financial performance in the past quarter, Alibaba has encountered notable challenges since the third quarter of the year, primarily stemming from an unexpectedly softening domestic consumer market in China. The world's second-largest economy transitioned into deflation territory in July, with producer prices experiencing a continuous decline for 13 consecutive months up to October. In fact, the 20% decrease in Alibaba's share prices over the past three months signals global investors' fragile confidence in the Chinese e-commerce giant. It is evident that investors remain skeptical about BABA's recovery trajectory moving forward. Beyond its financial performance, a crucial aspect to monitor is Alibaba's progress in AI development. Just two weeks ago, on October 31st, Alibaba launched the latest version of its artificial intelligence model, a significant development aimed at competing with its US counterparts such as Amazon and Microsoft. As the leading cloud player in China by market share, Alibaba's potential expansion into the global market with its leading AI and Cloud capabilities could mark the beginning of a new era for the Chinese tech giant, provided it achieves success. Alibaba earnings technical analysis Turning to the weekly chart of BABA, following last week's retracement, BABA’s stock price has reached a crucial support level at $77-$80. Given that the price is currently trading below all its short-term and long-term trendlines, sellers may keep the pressure on the current support level, potentially sending the price to revisit its 12-month low at $74. On the flip side, only a breakout from the Jan-Oct downward trendline could help the bulls stage a comeback, with overhead resistance located at $89-$90. Further clearance of the 100-day MA could usher in a rally toward the July highs near the $97-$100 handle. Alibaba stock rating and IG sentiment Source: TipRanks/IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

How to trade Tullow Oil shares following the company’s debt refinancing deal with Glencore ahead of Wednesday’s trading statement? Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities Tullow Oil Glencore Debt Price Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 14 November 2023 What impact could Tullow Oil’s debt refinancing have on its share price? Shares of Tullow Oil PLC have seen a surge on Monday as the Africa-oriented oil producer has secured a fresh $400 million debt facility through a deal with Glencore ahead of its Wednesday trading statement. This five-year arrangement will offer draw-downs over an initial 18-month period and will carry interest at an overnight benchmark rate plus 10%. Tullow has also agreed to oil marketing and offtake contracts with Glencore. This facility is planned to enable Tullow to completely address a number of financing agreements that are due to mature in 2025 and 2026. Rahul Dhir, Tullow's chief executive, views this agreement as a strong validation of the company’s business strategy and plan. He further added that this move is a significant step in his refinancing strategy, following the successful and equity accretive tender offer in June. In the London market, Tullow shares rose by 7% to trade at 32.40p each, giving the company a market capitalisation of around £470 million. Dhir stated that the Glencore debt, along with Tullow’s cash and an additional $800mn of free cash flow from 2023 to 2025, would allow them to fully address all outstanding 2025 notes. The financing also prepares Tullow for a successful refinancing of the 2026 notes. Alex Sanna, Glencore’s oil and gas business CEO, also expressed his support for the agreement, stating that it endorses Tullow's business strategy and plan and showcases Glencore’s capability in structuring finance solutions in the oil and gas sector. Despite the high cost of this new arrangement, it extends the maturity of Tullow’s debt and alleviates pressure in the near-term. This insight, coupled with the strong endorsement from both Tullow and Glencore executives, indicates a positive outlook for Tullow's financial future. How to trade Tullow Oil’s trading statement? On Wednesday 15 November Tullow Oil is expected to publish a trading statement which will likely impact its share price further. Technical analysis on Tullow Oil’s share price Tullow Oil’s share price, which has fallen year-to-date by over 10% despite rallying by 7% on Monday 13 November as the Africa focused oil producer secured a new $400 million debt facility through a deal with Glencore, will stay on a medium-term downward trajectory unless it can rise above its 35.78 pence late-October high. If so, the September-to-November bearish corrective phase will be deemed to have ended with the September peak at 39.94p being back in the picture. Tullow Oil Daily Candlesticks Chart Source: TradingView Tullow Oil’s share price needs to remain above its October-to-November lows at 30.22p to 30.04p lows for a bullish reversal to remain possible, though. In case of a fall through the minor psychological 30p level being seen, the company’s share price might slip further towards the late-June and July lows at 27.30p to 27.00p. Further down lies the March low at 25.94p. Tullow Oil Weekly Candlesticks Chart Source: TradingView Analysts recommendations and IG sentiment Fundamental analysts are torn between ‘hold’ and ‘buy’ with Refinitiv data showing 3 strong buy, 3 buy, 4 hold and 1 sell - with the mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 56.73p for the share, around 72% higher than the current share price (as of 13/11/2023). Source: Refinitiv IG sentiment data shows that 95% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 13 November 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 5% of clients expect the price to fall whereas trading activity over the last week shows 83% of buys and 70% of buys this month. Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 remain overall bid ahead of Tuesday’s US inflation reading Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI data. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 13 November 2023 11:35 FTSE 100 tries to begin week on a positive footing The FTSE 100 has come off Thursday’s 7,466 high amid hawkish comments by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and as the British economy stalled in the third quarter and slid to 7,320 on Friday before recovering. A rise above Friday’s 7,422 high would engage the one-month resistance line at 7,434 ahead of last week’s high at 7,466 and the early November high and 55-day simple moving average at 7,484 to 7,502. If overcome, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,610 would be back in the picture. Minor support below Monday’s intraday low at 7,359 is seen at Friday’s 7,320 low. In case of it being slipped through, a fall towards the October low at 7,258 may ensue. The 7,258 low was made close to the 7,228 to 7,204 March-to-August lows which represents significant support. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 remains immediately bid while above 15,171 The DAX 40’s rally from its 14,589 October low took it to last week’s high at 15,366 before slipping to Friday’s low at 15,171. While remaining above this level, further upside should be in store with the July-to-November downtrend line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,342 representing the first upside target ahead of the 15,366 high. Were it to be exceeded, the 15,455 to 15,575 July-to-mid-September lows and the mid-October high would represent major resistance. Support below the October-to-November uptrend line at 15,227 and Friday’s 15,171 low can be found at last week’s 15,067 low. Further down lie the minor psychological 15,000 mark and the early October low at 14,944. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 grapples with resistance The Nasdaq 100 surged ahead on Friday and reached levels last traded in September between the 15,520 to 15,628 early to mid-September highs by rising to 15,543. Moody’s downgrade on the US credit rating from “stable” to “negative” while affirming its Aaa rating - the highest investment grade - put a dampener on US stock indices such as the Nasdaq 100 which is trading slightly lower in pre-open trading and ahead of Tuesday’s inflation data. Support comes in around the 15,339 October peak. While the next lower 15,139 Thursday low underpins, the steep upside momentum from the last couple of weeks remains in play. Source: ProRealTime

Approximate 3% surge in the AUD/USD at the start of November hit a roadblock last week, as a dovish RBA rate hike and assertive remarks from Fed Chair fuelled shifts in market dynamics. Source: Bloomberg Forex Federal Reserve United States dollar AUD/USD Australian dollar Unemployment Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 13 November 2023 07:58 A roughly 3% rally in the AUD/USD during the initial three sessions of November was erased last week, following a dovish RBA rate hike and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. While we do not intend to diminish the significance of the Fed Chair's hawkish tone last week, we interpret it as a strategic response to the pronounced easing in financial conditions since late October, encompassing the pricing in of 100bp rate cuts for 2024. This adjustment is not viewed as a reversal of the more cautious tones prevalent in the second half of October and during the November FOMC meeting. Amid a packed schedule of Fed speakers and a resurgence of financial conditions after Friday's stock market surge, the likelihood of additional hawkish rhetoric this week is notable, especially if Wednesday's US October inflation report surpasses expectations. Shifting the focus to key local events for the AUD/USD this week, the Q3 wages data on Wednesday is anticipated to be supportive. The minimum wage reviews from June, resulting in a 5.75% rise in award wages, are expected to drive a 1.3% QoQ increase in quarterly wages, pushing the annual rate to 3.9%. The labour force report for October, set for release on Thursday, is expected to reveal a +24k increase in employment, with the unemployment rate predicted to rise to 3.7%. The participation rate is also anticipated to climb to 66.8%. In its recent Monetary Policy statement, the RBA adjusted down its forecasts for the unemployment rate to 4.25% by the end of next year, down from the previous estimate of 4.5%, reflecting a persistently tight labour market despite a 425bp increase in interest rates. AUD/USD technical analysis In our update last week here, we noted the importance of resistance at .6520/30. Specifically, we said that: "Should the AUD/USD close above here post tomorrow's RBA meeting, it would confirm a medium-term low is in place in the AUD/USD at the recent .6270 low and open up a move towards the next layer of resistance at .6600/20." After touching a high of .6523 on Monday last week, the local unit closed lower for five straight sessions to finish the week -2.42% at .6360. Its rejection from above .6500c leaves the AUD/USD still requiring a sustained break above resistance at .6520/30 to confirm a trend reversal. Until then, downside risks remain, including a possible test and break of the October .6270 low. AUD/USD chart Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 13 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

It was a quiet start to the week in Asia, as attention turns to Tuesday's US inflation reading. While the ASX 200 declined, the Nikkei was flat, though the Taiwanese market made a 1% gain. Stocks finished the week in strong form on Friday in the US, though European markets had come under pressure. Monday's session is likely to be a quiet one, with little data or earnings scheduled. Moody's downgrade of its US debt outlook on Friday highlighted the challenges regarding the US government's financial position, though it does not appear to be hitting risk appetite for now.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 13 November Chris Beauchamp's insight US and UK consumer price index (CPI) reports dominate the week, as investors wait to hear the latest news on the key indicator of the past year. Other UK data such as employment figures and retail sales will drive activity in sterling. US retailers such as WalMart update the market with earnings, while in the UK BAE Systems and Burberry are among the major companies reporting results. Economic reports Weekly view Monday 11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence change (Nov): index to rise to 82.6. Markets to watch: AUD crosses Tuesday 12.30am – Australia NAB business confidence (October): expected to fall to -1. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 7am – UK employment data (September): unemployment rate to rise to 4.4%, average earnings to rise 8.3% (inc bonus). Markets to watch: GBP crosses 10am – German ZEW index (November): index expected to rise to 1 from -1.1. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US CPI (October): prices expected to rise 3.8% Year-over-year (YoY) and 0.1% Month-over-Month (MoM), from 3.7% and 0.4%, while core CPI to rise 3.8% YoY and 0.3% MoM, from 4.1% and 0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 11.50pm – Japan gross domestic product (GDP) (Q3, preliminary): growth expected to fall 0.6% YoY and 0.1% Quarter on quarter (QoQ). Markets to watch: JPY crosses Wednesday 2am – China industrial production (October): forecast to rise 4.5% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 7am – UK CPI (October): headline CPI to be 4.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 6.7% and 0.5%, and core CPI to fall to 5.6% from 6.1% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US PPI, retail sales (October): Producer Price Index (PPI) to drop to 0.1% MoM from 0.5%, and retail sales to rise 0.2% from 0.7%. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 3 & 10 November): data for week ending 3 November delayed by one week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Thursday 2am – China industrial production (October): forecast to rise 4.5% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 7am – UK CPI (October): headline CPI to be 4.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 6.7% and 0.5%, and core CPI to fall to 5.6% from 6.1% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US PPI, retail sales (October): Producer Price Index (PPI) to drop to 0.1% MoM from 0.5%, and retail sales to rise 0.2% from 0.7%. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 3 & 10 November): data for week ending 3 November delayed by one week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Friday 7am – UK retail sales (October): expected to fall 0.4% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (October): starts to fall 1.3% and permits to drop 1.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses Company announcements Monday 13 November Tuesday 14 November Wednesday 15 November Thursday 16 November Friday 17 November Full-year earnings Imperial Brands Siemens Half/ Quarterly earnings British Land Vodafone, Land Securities, Wise, Home Depot Experian, SSE, Fuller Smith & Turner, Cisco, Target Premier Foods, IDS, Burberry, United Utilities, Walmart, Macy's, Gap Trading update* BAE Systems Tullow Oil Aviva, Crest Nicholson, Smiths Group Foot Locker Dividends FTSE 100: Pershing Square, Bunzl, Hargreaves Lansdown, Unilever, GSK, Shell, Marks & Spencer, B&M European Value Retail FTSE 250: ICG Enterprise Trust, NextEnergy, Bytes Technology, Octopus Renewables Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 13 November Tuesday 14 November Wednesday 15 November Thursday 16 November Friday 17 November Monday 20 November FTSE 100 14.12 Australia 200 8.9 7.9 0.4 0.1 0.5 Wall Street 4.9 33.9 7.8 US 500 0.93 0.83 1.07 0.10 0.47 0.11 Nasdaq 1.07 4.08 1.57 0.19 0.50 Netherlands 25 2.28 EU Stocks 50 0.9 4.0 China H-Shares Singapore Blue Chip 0.84 0.42 Hong Kong HS50 1.6 5.4 South Africa 40 Italy 40 247.1 Japan 225

EUR/USD technical analysis After facing rejection from Fibonacci resistance at 1.0765, EUR/USD has undergone a quick pullback, with the exchange rate now flirting the lower limit of a support band at 1.0650. The bulls must defend this floor at all costs – failure to do so can send the pair reeling, driving prices toward trendline support at 1.0555. On further weakness, the possibility of a retest of the 2023 lows come into view. In case the market turns and sentiment swings in favor of the bulls, the first technical barrier to watch appears at 1.0765, where the 200-day simple moving average aligns with the 38.2% Fib retracement of the July/October decline. Overcoming this confluence of key levels could reinforce the bullish momentum, paving the way for a move towards 1.0840. EUR/USD technical chart Source: TradingView

Gold and silver prices rebound, but their upside is capped by the move in bond yields; palladium sinks to its lowest level in more than five years. A look at XAU/USD and XAG/USD’s key technical levels to monitor. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities Gold United States dollar Silver Palladium IG Analyst Gold and silver prices rebounded on Thursday after several Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) officials expressed caution about what the next steps should be in terms of monetary policy. The Atlanta Fed’s Bostic indicated that the central bank's stance is probably sufficiently restrictive and Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee, warning against an interest rate overshoot. However, gains in both metals were capped by the movement in bonds. Yields have trended lower over the past week, but in today's session, they experienced a strong rally, especially those on the back end, thereby limiting the upside for XAU/USD and XAG/USD. Meanwhile, palladium plummeted, sinking more than 4% towards the $1,000 mark. This was its weakest point in more than five years, as its fundamentals continued to deteriorate. Demand for palladium, used in catalytic converters to reduce emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles, has been negatively affected in recent years by the rapid societal shift to electric cars. The substitution of palladium for cheaper platinum has also hurt the metal, which is expected to be in structural surplus in 2024. Against this backdrop, prices could fall below $1,000 and stay beneath that threshold before long. Turning back to gold and silver, their near-term prospects will likely depend more on the dynamics of monetary policy, the broader US dollar and geopolitics. On the geopolitical front, Israel's invasion of Gaza following the Hamas terrorist attacks, while tragic, has not degenerated into a broader Middle East conflict involving other countries, such as Iran or Lebanon. This could reduce the demand for safe-haven assets, temporarily limiting the appetite for precious metals. Be that as it may, there are reasons to be optimistic about gold and silver. One catalyst that could put upward pressure on their prices is the trend in yields. Last month, the yield on 10-year bond topped 5.0%, but has since undergone a sharp correction, trading today at around 4.65%. If the downturn in rates accelerates on the back of renewed recession fears, XAU/USD and XAG/USD may have scope to rally further. Gold price technical analysis Earlier this week, gold experienced a minor setback when the bulls failed to breach a key ceiling in the $2,010/$2,015 range. However, prices have started to perk up after encountering support around the 200-day simple moving average, paving the way for Thursday’s modest advance. If gains accelerate in the coming days, resistance is located at $1,980. On further strength, the focus shifts to $2,010/$2,015 again. On the other hand, if the bears stage a comeback and propel prices downward, the first area to keep an eye on is $1,945, which aligns with the 200-day SMA. Although gold might find support in this region during a retracement, a breakdown could pave the way for a slump towards $1,920. Below this threshold, the spotlight turns to the psychological $1,900 level. Gold price chart Source: TradingView Silver price technical analysis After selling off in recent days, silver appears to have stabilized around trendline support at $22.65. If prices manage to rebound sustainably from current levels, technical resistance is located at $23.35, just around the 200-day simple moving average. Upside clearance of this ceiling could rekindle bullish momentum, paving the way for a retest of the psychological $24.00 level. Conversely, if sellers regain control of the market and push prices below $22.65, we could witness a pullback towards $22.20. In case of continued weakness, the attention will shift to the October lows near the $21.00 mark. Silver price chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The US dollar, measured by the DXY index, rallies on soaring bond yields; Powell’s hawkish comments reinforce the greenback’s advance. What are the key levels to watch for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and gold prices? Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities United States dollar Market sentiment Japanese yen Gold IG Analyst The dollar's surging momentum The broader US dollar opened the session on a subdued note but saw a strong afternoon rally, primarily fueled by surging yields, following lackluster demand for US government securities at a significant Treasury auction. The greenback's upward surge gained further momentum with the hawkish statements made by Federal Reserve Bank Chair, Jerome Powell during a panel hosted by the IMF. Powell's hawkish outlook and market uncertainty In public remarks, the FOMC chief said that policymakers are not confident they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the 2.0% target in a sustained manner. He also indicated that further progress on cooling price pressures is not guaranteed, and stronger growth could warrant higher rates. When it was all said and done, the DXY index was up nearly 0.4% on the day. Taken together, Powell’s comments suggest that the central bank is not 100% convinced that the hiking cycle is over. This could mean another possible hike next month or in January, especially if financial conditions continue to ease, as has been the case since late October (tech stocks have been on a bullish tear, ignoring today’s performance). For the time being, expectations will remain in a state of flux, with sentiment shifting with the strength or weakness of data releases. For this reason, it is imperative that traders keep an eye on the economic calendar in the coming days and weeks. That said, one key report worth following is the October consumer price index survey, due out next Tuesday. Impact on bond yields and currencies In terms of analysts’ projections, headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, bringing the annual rate down to 3.3% from 3.7% previously. The core gauge, for its part, is seen increasing 0.3% monthly, resulting in a yearly reading of 4.3% - unchanged from September. With the Fed hypersensitive to incoming information and fearful of inflationary risks, any upward deviation of official data from consensus estimates should boost bond yields and strengthen the case for higher interest rates for longer. This scenario would be positive for the greenback, but negative for gold, the euro, the Australian dollar and the yen. EUR/USD technical analysis After facing rejection from Fibonacci resistance at 1.0765, EUR/USD has undergone a quick pullback, with the exchange rate now flirting the lower limit of a support band at 1.0650. The bulls must defend this floor at all costs – failure to do so can send the pair reeling, driving prices toward trendline support at 1.0555. On further weakness, the possibility of a retest of the 2023 lows come into view. In case the market turns and sentiment swings in favor of the bulls, the first technical barrier to watch appears at 1.0765, where the 200-day simple moving average aligns with the 38.2% Fib retracement of the July/October decline. Overcoming this confluence of key levels could reinforce the bullish momentum, paving the way for a move towards 1.0840. EUR/USD technical chart Source: TradingView USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY pulled back last week, but has reasserted its upward momentum, taking out an important ceiling at 150.90 and charging towards its 2022 and 2023 highs, just shy of the psychological 152.00 mark. With prices on a bullish tear and approaching an important tech zone, traders should exercise caution, as Tokyo may step in any minute to curb speculative activity and prevent further yen depreciation. In the event of FX intervention by Japanese authorities, USD/JPY could quickly sink below 150.90 and head towards the 149.00 handle. On further weakness, the focus shifts to 147.25, followed by 146.00. If Tokyo stays out of currency markets and allows the exchange to drift above 152.00, a potential rally towards the upper boundary of a medium-term rising channel at 153.40 becomes conceivable. USD/JPY technical chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis AUD/USD fell for the fourth straight session on Thursday, erasing all gains accumulated following last week’s bullish breakout, which turned out to be a fakeout. After this pullback, the pair has arrived at an important support near 0.6350. The integrity of this area level is vital; a failure to maintain it could result in a drop towards 0.6325. On further weakness, a revisit to this year's lows could be in the cards. Despite the recent setback for the Australian dollar, the bullish scenario should not be entirely dismissed. That said, if the bulls engineer a comeback and trigger a rebound off current levels, overhead resistance appears around the 0.6400 handle, followed by 0.6460. Successfully overcoming this technical barrier could reignite bullish momentum, opening the door for a rally toward the November highs near 0.6500. AUD/USD technical chart Source: TradingView Gold technical analysis Earlier this week, gold reversed lower when the bulls failed to take out a critical ceiling in the $2,010/$2,015 area. However, XAU/USD has started to perk up after this setback, with prices encountering support around the 200-day simple moving average ahead of a modest bounce. If gains pick up pace in the coming trading sessions, initial resistance appears at $1,980, followed by $2,010/$2,015. Conversely, if sellers return and regain the upper hand in financial markets, the first floor to monitor is positioned at $1,945, which aligns with the 200-day SMA. Although gold might find a foothold in this region during a pullback, a breakdown could prompt a descent towards $1,920. Below this region, the focus transitions to $1,900. Gold price chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations increased in the fourth quarter, but decreased for the full fiscal year Source: Bloomberg Shares Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 09 November 2023 16:25 Key Takeaways: The Walt Disney Company reported a 5% increase in revenues for the fourth quarter and a 7% increase for the full fiscal year, compared to the previous year. While Disney's diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations increased in the fourth quarter, it decreased for the full fiscal year. Disney's streaming platform, Disney+, continues to expand its subscriber base, adding nearly 7 million core subscribers in the fourth quarter. Disney's domestic ESPN revenue and operating income grew year over year, highlighting the strength of the ESPN brand and the value of sports content. Disney has been proactive in managing its cost base, increasing its annualized efficiency target. Disney’s Q4 and full year results The Walt Disney Company (DIS) has recently announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year ending September 30, 2023. The company reported a 5% and 7% growth in revenues for the quarter and the year respectively, compared to the previous year. This growth demonstrates the company's resilience and ability to adapt to market changes, making it a potentially reliable choice for traders. Disney's diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations for the quarter increased from $0.09 in the prior year’s comparative period to $0.14 in Q4 2023. However, for the year, the EPS decreased from $1.75 to $0.29. Disney+ continues to expand its subscriber base, adding nearly 7 million core subscribers in the fourth quarter. This growth was driven by popular theatrical titles such as Elemental, Little Mermaid, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and original series like Ahsoka and the Korean original series Moving. The company anticipates its combined streaming businesses will reach profitability in Q4 of FY24. The company's domestic ESPN revenue and operating income grew year over year in both fiscal year 2022 and fiscal year 2023, demonstrating the power of the ESPN brand and the value of sports content. Additionally, the Experiences operating income increased by over 30% compared to the prior-year quarter, with growth seen across all international sites, Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, and Disneyland Resort. Disney has also been proactive in managing its cost base, increasing its annualized efficiency target to $7.5bn from $5.5 billion. This cost management strategy is expected to contribute to the company's bottom-line growth. In summary Looking ahead to fiscal 2024, Disney expects to grow its free cash flow significantly, approaching levels last seen pre-pandemic. Overall, Disney's strong revenue growth, the growth of its streaming platform, and its success in ESPN and experiential offerings position the company well for the future. However, the mixed earnings performance and the need for cost management highlight challenges that the company needs to address to maintain long-term profitability. Disney – trading view Source: IG The share price of Disney has rallied in after hours trade following the release of its Q4 2023 results. The price is now testing range resistance at the 89.00. A close above the 89.00 level would suggest a range breakout with 92.60 and 94.80 possible upside resistance targets from the move. In this scenario traders will need to assess the risk relative to reward metric for the trade. One such risk consideration might be to implement a stop loss on a close below a one or two day low. Should the price not manage to break resistance and instead from a bearish price reversal off the level, short considerations might target a move towards support at 83.25. In this scenario a close above the reversal high may be used as a stop loss indication for the trade. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

EUR/USD Upside in Focus as Inflation Data Looms Nov 8, 2023 8:01 PM +02:00 Richard Snow DailyFX Strategist BULLISH EUR/USD BIAS, CONTINGENT ON FURTHER DATA BACKING PEAK U.S. RATES EUR/USD has advanced in an impressive fashion, reaching channel resistance with ease. Since then successive daily candles reveal extended lower wicks – suggesting a rejection of lower prices. However, this would need to be confirmed by a daily close on today’s candle. What that does is highlight 1.0700 as a level of immediate support, keeping EUR/USD primed for another attempt at breaking out of the channel, with the 200-day simple moving average not far away. A return to channel support would invalidate the trade or at the very least delay the idea for a later date. 1.0831 is the level of resistance targeted on the upside. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Phoenix Group, Vodafone and M&G could constitute the three best FTSE 100 dividend shares to watch next month. These shares are currently the highest yielding on the index. Source: Bloomberg Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London The FTSE 100 has enjoyed somewhat of a volatile 2023 — falling to a recent low of 7,291 points on 27 October before recovering to 7,402 points today. Still, the UK’s premier index remains down by 1.9% year-to-date. Despite being filled with miners, oilers, and banks, many of which are profiting from historically higher commodity prices and tightening monetary policy, the index is likely reacting to wider geopolitical instability. For perspective, FTSE Russell data indicates that FTSE 100 companies generate circa 80% of their revenue from overseas. Further, the UK’s macroeconomic situation remains subject to significant variability. While the Bank of England has chosen to retain the base rate at 5.25% for now, CPI inflation remains more than triple the official 2% target at 6.7%. And on the fiscal policy side, the Autumn statement later this month could yield yet more uncertainty. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has steadfastly refused to entertain the idea of significant tax cuts, despite significant political pressure to do so. Given the lateness of the election cycle and the state of the polls, some tax cuts may nevertheless be incoming. Accordingly, though the following three shares are currently the highest yielding on the index, it’s important to note that these yields may not be sustainable — and further — are subject to wider macroeconomic pressures. Phoenix Group has its debt pile, Vodafone shares a poor share price track record, and M&G’s popularity could see it become overvalued in time. For context, housebuilder Persimmon was consistently one of the highest-yielding FTSE 100 stocks for several years and has now been demoted to the FTSE 250 in the face of the weaker housing market. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Best FTSE 100 dividend stocks to watch? 1. Phoenix Group With a dividend yield of 11.2%, this popular insurance company may be tempting to value investors eyeing its 24.7% share price fall year-to-date. For context, the company paid out 50.8p to investors last year — and the average analyst expectation is that this will increase to 52.6p in 2023. In H1 results, the FTSE 100 business reported cash generation of £898 million, above analyst predictions, allowing the company to boost its interim dividend by 5% to 26p per share. Given that Phoenix Group is now on track to generate £1.3 billion to £1.4 billion of cash generation for the full year, the dividend could now be safe — especially with its solvency II ratio of 180% at the top of the 140-180% management target. However, there are risks. Its bonds are likely falling sharply in value as rates continue to rise, and Phoenix also has a debt pile to manage. JP Morgan analysts have cut their price target from 655p to just 430p, and downgraded Phoenix to underweight, arguing that ‘the stock has too much debt leverage relative to peers, which creates numerous capital and growth risks in the long term.’ 2. Vodafone Vodafone shares have fallen by 46.5% over the past five years, and now offer a 10% dividend yield with a price-to-earnings ratio of just 2. While this may seem like an exceptional opportunity at first glance, it’s important to place these numbers into context. Vodafone saw after-tax revenue of €11.84 billion in the financial year to March 2023 — but this was heavily warped by one-off asset sales, including the €8.61 billion generated from the sale of Vantage Towers. If you remove the gains made from these sales, the price-to-equity ratio is significantly higher. However, the dividend itself appears relatively safe — Vodafone is selling more assets, including its Spanish arm for ‘at least’ €4.1 billion, more than enough cash to pay a dividend of €0.09 a share, as it has every year for the past six years. While some analysts think the dividend could be cut, the FTSE 100 telecoms operator reports results next week — investors don’t have long to wait to find out. 3. M&G With a dividend yield of 9.8%, M&G is seemingly going from strength to strength. The savings and investment provider plans to generate operating capital amounting to £2.5 billion by the end of 2024. Happily, the FTSE 100 dividend stock has now achieved more than 50% of this three-year target, 18 months in — meaning it is on track. And its shareholder Solvency II Coverage ratio remains at the top end of the target range at 199%, with no defaults in the first half of the year. Yet even having risen by 7.6% year-to-date, it still boasts a near double-digit dividend yield. And in half-year results, M&G increased its interim dividend by 5% to 6.5p per share. For context, it saw positive net client inflows of £700 million — remaining positive into a third consecutive year. M&G also saw operating capital generation rise by 17% year-over-year to £505 million, driving adjusted operating profit 31% higher to £390 million. CEO Andrea Rossi enthuses that the results ‘demonstrate the underlying strength of our business model, the resilience of our balance sheet… we have made progress against all three pillars of the strategy that we launched in March.’ The company’s strategy continues to shift with the times; it recently closed its property fund due to weak retail investor demand — but has also unveiled its first European long-term investment fund, which will invest in private credit. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Brent crude oil, silver slide while wheat prices rise Outlook on Brent crude oil, silver and Chicago wheat as a vessel is struck by a missile in Ukraine. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 November 2023 11:43 Brent crude oil price drops on weak China data Brent crude oil continues its swift decline towards its $78.52 per barrel May high as China’s consumer prices slip more than expected with the cost of food falling the most in 25 months, pointing towards lower demand for oil. As long as Brent crude oil manages to hold above Wednesday’s $79.18 low, a minor bounce towards the $81.68 to $82.31 resistance area may unfold. It consists of the August lows and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and as such is expected to thwart any recovery attempt. Source: ProRealTime Silver drops out of its sideways trading range to the downside The price of spot silver has been range trading between its last couple of weeks’ extremes at $23.70 to $22.45 per troy ounce with it now leaving it to the downside as the US dollar holds steady. Strong support between the June-to-mid-September lows at $22.30 to $22.12 is likely to be revisited but may well hold again, as it did on Wednesday. If not, and if a daily chart close below the $22.12 June low were to be seen, the late February high at $21.98 would be eyed. Minor resistance above Thursday’s intraday high at $22.64 can be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.88. While remaining below it, downside pressure should prevail. Source: ProRealTime Chicago Wheat prices rise towards their two-month high Chicago Wheat prices are rising once more on reports that a shipping vessel was struck by a missile upon entering the port of Odessa in Ukraine. The two-month high at $620, made in October, is thus back in sight, a rise above which could lead to the July low at $627 being reached. Minor support below Tuesday’s high at $602.5 can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $594. Source: ProRealTime

Dow stalls at trendline resistance, but Nasdaq 100 edges up and Nikkei 225 rallies After pulling back in recent sessions the Nikkei 225 has moved higher, while the Dow has reached trendline resistance and the Nasdaq 100 makes some tentative gains. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 November 2023 12:01 Dow returns to trendline resistance The index has seen its momentum fade after the huge gains of the past week, though it continues to hold above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Wednesday saw the index touch trendline resistance from the July highs, for the first time since early September. A push above this line would be a clear bullish development, and open the way towards the highs of early September towards 35,000. For the moment there is no sign of any downside momentum, but a close below the 200-day SMA might signal that some fresh short-term weakness has begun. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 continues to tiptoe higher This index has been able to push above trendline resistance, moving outside the descending channel in place since the end of July. It finds itself back at the early October highs at 15,330, and now need a close above this level to break the previous lower high. From there, the 15,600 area from early September comes into view. A reversal back below 15,000 puts the index back inside the descending channel and reinforces the bearish short-term view. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 bounces off 100-day moving average After weakening over the past four sessions, the index has seen a revival. The price briefly moved below the 100-day SMA yesterday, but avoided a close below this indicator, with it now acting as support as opposed to resistance as it was in early October. This could now see the index push on towards 33,000 and trendline resistance from the 2023 high. Above this comes the September highs around 33,450. Sellers will need a reversal back below 32,000 to suggest that a new leg lower could be underway. Source: ProRealTime

A mixed session for Asian stocks nonetheless saw the Japanese tech sector make headway. Chinese CPI showed the world's second largest economy tipped back into deflation in October, which put pressure on stock markets there. Markets find themselves awaiting another speech from Jerome Powell, after a speech on Wednesday that did not provide any further detail on monetary policy. Aside from weekly US jobless claims, it looks to be another quiet day, though the S&P 500 has managed to cling on to its winning streak.

AUD/USD extends pullback after failing to clear overhead resistance around the 100-day simple moving average; the breakout that took place last week appears to have been a fakeout. Source: Bloomberg IG Analyst | Publication date: Thursday 09 November 2023 05:19 AUD/USD technical analysis The Aussie embarked on a brief bull run against the US dollar at the outset of the month, bouncing from horizontal support, around the 0.6300 handle and breaking out on the topside. The initial rally gained strength late last week as the broader US dollar began to correct lower, following the FOMC decision and weaker-than-expected US data. However, prices hit a roadblock near the 100-day simple moving average on Monday, leading to a sharp reversal in the exchange rate (breakout looks like it was a fakeout). AUD/USD’s retreat from technical resistance came in tandem with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s monetary policy announcement a couple of days ago. The central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35%, but sounded non-committal about further tightening, signaling that the rate-hiking cycle might be drawing to a close. The RBA's cautious tone reinforced weakness in the Australian dollar, creating a more complex scenario for the antipodean currency. Looking ahead, it is important to watch how prices behave around the 0.6400 mark, which coincides with the 50-day simple moving average. If this support zone crumbles, selling pressure could intensify in the near term, potentially leading to a drop towards 0.6350, the next floor in play. While AUD/USD may establish a base in this area during a retracement, a breakdown could open the door for a retest of this year's lows, located around the 0.6300 level. In the event AUD/USD stabilizes and bounces back from its current position, overhead resistance can be seen at 0.6460. Successfully piloting above this technical barrier might attract new buyers into the market, creating the right conditions for an ascent towards 0.6510. To confirm the end of the downturn and signal a sustained recovery for the Australian dollar, it is essential to take out this ceiling. If this scenario plays out, the bulls may set their sights on the 200-day simple moving average. AUD/USD technical chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 consolidate as they await further news Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell today and tomorrow. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 November 2023 12:33 FTSE 100 weighs on minor support The FTSE 100 continues to slide on some disappointing earnings. The index is in the process of testing the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369 and may drop towards the October low at 7,258 if these levels were to give way. The 7,258 low was made close to the 7,228 to 7,204 March-to-August lows which represents significant support. Above Wednesday’s intraday high at 7,408 lies minor resistance at Tuesday’s 7,432 high and the 25 October high at 7,430. Further up sits last week’s high at 7,484 which, together with the 55-day simple moving average at 7,501, would need to be overcome for the early September high at 7,524 to be back in the frame. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 consolidation is ongoing The DAX 40’s rally from its 14,589 October low took it to Friday’s 15,268 high before consolidating this week. In case of a fall through Tuesday’s low at 15,067 the minor psychological 15,000 mark and the early October low at 14,944 may be revisited. For the bull run to continue, Tuesday’s high at 15,194 would need to be exceeded in which case last week’s high at 15,268 would be back in focus. Further up beckon the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the July-to-November downtrend line at 15,363 to 15,390. Slightly above this area sits major resistance between the 15,455 to 15,575 July-to-mid-September lows and the mid-October high. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 nears mid-October high at 4,398 The sharp rally in the S&P 500 is losing upside momentum amid high US treasury yields and hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve (Fed) members and as it approaches its mid-October high at 4,398 around which it may short-term consolidate. If not, the early September low at 4,430 would be eyed next. Minor support can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,352 and at Monday’s 4,348 low. Further minor support sits at the 4,337 August trough. Source: ProRealTime

WTI falls sharply while gold and US natural gas prices also drop Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas as investors worry about global demand. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 November 2023 12:15 WTI drops to three-month low on huge inventories build WTI fell by over 4% and dropped to a three-month low, so far to $76.46, amid concerns regarding future demand following weak China data and after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories rose by almost 12 million barrels last week, the biggest increase since the beginning of the year. On the demand side, the EIA also expects total petroleum consumption to decline by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year versus a previously forecast 100,000 bpd increase. WTI now trades below its $77.60 per barrel August low and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $78.00 which represent minor resistance ahead of the $81.21 early October low. A fall through Wednesday’s $76.46 low would put the May high at $74.70 back on the cards. Source: ProRealTime Gold price retreats further from last week’s high The gold price continues to gradually slide and on Tuesday nearly revisited its September high and late October $1,953 per barrel low by dropping to $1,957. Further down lies the late September high at $1,947 which may also act as support. Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while no rise above Tuesday’s high at $1,977 is seen. Slightly below it minor resistance can be made out around the $1,970 early November low. Above $1,977 lies minor resistance around the 2 November high at $1,991. Source: ProRealTime US natural gas continues to slide from last week’s ten-month high US natural gas futures reached a ten-month high at $3.646 on Friday, marginally above their early October high, before they slid back towards their late October low at $3.172 and the September-to-November uptrend line at $3.157. Further down support can be spotted between the mid-to-late September highs at $3.024 to $3.021 while minor resistance sits at the $3.349 late October low. Source: ProRealTime

Global stocks continue to see their momentum slow, with the focus turning to speeches today and tomorrow from Jerome Powell, which dominate an otherwise quiet macro calendar. After the gains of last week, equities have consolidated, awaiting further news. Oil prices have come under pressure, falling sharply yesterday on poor Chinese data. While the fall in oil prices helps to reduce fears of renewed inflation, the ongoing rise in stocks helps to loosen financial conditions, which may yet tilt the Fed towards one more rate hike this year.

Shell shares may continue to remain a FTSE 100 favourite as the oil major pivots away from renewables and towards traditional oil and gas activities. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Commodities Shell plc Petroleum Price of oil Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 06 November 2023 19:39 Shell (LON: SHEL) shares surged to a record high in mid-October, as the FTSE 100 operator was buoyed by fears that the Israel-Hamas war could develop into a wider regional conflict involving Saudi Arabia and Iran. For context, Brent Crude — the international oil price benchmark — is trading for circa $86 per barrel, a historically elevated price despite falling, in line with Shell's share price, as fears have mildly abated. On the other hand, the war is continuing to intensify. The Gazan-run health ministry now believes that more than 10,000 people have been killed in the territory since the war began a month ago, with Israel carrying out one of its heaviest bombardments of the Strip last night. The Israeli military now considers it has effectively divided Gaza into two — and all major UN agencies have issued a rare joint statement calling for a humanitarian ceasefire arguing that ‘enough is enough.’ Shell shares: Q3 results The FTSE 100 oil major reported earnings of $6.22 billion between July and September, up sharply compared to the previous quarter of $5 billion and just shy of the company-provided analyst expectations of $6.25 billion. However, these earnings were also down by over a third compared to the $9.45 billion of Q4 2022, when oil and gas prices surged in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While BP was hit by weak gas trading results, Shell’s earnings were supported by ‘favourable’ LNG trading, which rose quarter-on-quarter. However, production at its integrated gas division fell by 9%, partially due to maintenance at its Prelude LNG production facility off the coast of Australia. Shell plans to return another $3.5 billion to shareholders over the next three months through its share buyback programme, a rise from the $2.7 billion of the last quarter — bringing the total for 2023 to $23 billion. The dividend remains unchanged at $0.331 per share. Oil price rises? While oil prices have cooled slightly, geopolitical risks could remain elevated, especially with the Ukraine war continuing to rage. Indeed, the World Bank has warned that if war in the Middle East also escalates, crude oil could almost double to $150 per barrel. For perspective, OPEC+ members, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, decided on Sunday to continue with voluntary production cuts until the end of the year. Saudi is continuing to cut an additional 1 million barrels per day, and Russia an additional 300,000. Moscow has blamed Western ‘influence with market dynamics,’ referring to the cap on Russian oil that acts as part of sanctions on the country. FTSE 100 long term strategy While larger operators in the US — including Chevron and Exxon — have made headlines recently for acquiring smaller oilers within multi-billion-dollar deals, Shell CEO Wael Sawan has shied away from an acquisition strategy, preferring the traditional share buybacks. In addition, the company has tightened the upper range of its capital spending target in 2023 to between $23 billion and $25 billion, from $23 billion to $26 billion previously. The CEO is also changing strategic direction, with a focus on higher-margin projects and growing its natural gas production. To achieve this within the confines of its capex target, the company is cutting at least 15% of employees at its low-carbon division and scaling back the hydrogen business. For context, Shell noted that most of its renewables business remained loss-making in Q3. However, the cutbacks have sparked some public concern from employees. Overall, the company remains close to a record high, and yet still boasts a price-to-equity ratio of less than 8. Accordingly, solid results could see Shell shares could continue to rise through the FTSE 100. But remember, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.