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WTI, gold and US natural gas await plethora of rate decisions Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas amid the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza and rate decisions by the BoJ, Fed and BoE. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 30 October 2023 12:23 WTI range trades as investors await plethora of rate decisions WTI continues to range trade below its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $85.41 per barrel which capped the upside since Wednesday as investors await rate decisions by the likes of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. If Friday’s high at $85.62 were to be bettered, the mid-October high at $87.05 may be revisited. Strong support remains to be seen between the current October lows at $81.95 to $81.21. Source: ProRealTime Gold price retreats from last week’s high Now that the widely anticipated ground invasion of the Gaza strip by the Israeli army has begun, the price of gold has slipped back below the psychological $2,000 per troy ounce mark as investors bought the rumour and pushed the gold price to its March peak at $2,009 last week but now sell the fact. The accelerated uptrend line at $1,991 may thus be tested and, if fallen through, Friday’s low at $1,977 as well. While it underpins, immediate upside pressure should retain the upper hand, though. A rise above $2,009 would engage the 10 May high at $2,048. Source: ProRealTime Natural gas prices come off last week’s new ten-month high US natural gas futures reached a new ten-month high at $3.646 on Friday, marginally above their early October high, as Israel began a ground invasion of the Gaza strip over the weekend and supply worries drove the price of gas higher. Early on Monday morning a lower open is being made with a gap forming with Friday’s low at $3.444 which may act as resistance in the course of the day. As long as Friday’s high at $3.646 isn’t bettered, the odds are stacked in favour of a sell-off being seen as negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) accompanied last week’s advance and acts as a possible early warning signal of a bearish reversal taking shape. If so, the 20 October low at $3.172 may be revisited over the coming days. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 try to kick off week on a stronger footing Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid elevated Middle East tensions, volatility and a plethora of key interest rate decisions. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 30 October 2023 12:05 FTSE 100 tries to stabilise The FTSE 100 is trying to regain some of last week’s sharp losses which were due to risk-off sentiment surrounding the Middle East and the ‘rates higher for longer’ outlook. The decline took it to a two-month low at 7,258 with the early September and early October lows at 7,369 to 7,384 being back in sight for Monday’s recovery rally. This area might act as resistance, though. If not, Wednesday’s high at 7,430 could be back in the frame. If overcome on a daily chart closing basis, a medium-term bullish reversal in the seasonally favourable period until year-end could be in the making. Major support below Friday’s 7,258 low can be spotted between the 7,228 to 7,204 March-to-August lows. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 tries to bounce off its seven-month low The DAX 40’s fall to 14,589 on Friday has been followed by a slightly more bullish sentiment on Monday morning with the index seen breaking through its October downtrend line at 14,756 as investors await key German preliminary Q3 GDP and inflation data and the Eurozone business climate report. A rise above Friday’s 14,825 high would put last week’s high at 14,945 back on the plate. If bettered on a daily chart closing basis, a medium-term bullish reversal may occur into the end of the year. Potential slips through Friday’s 14,589 low would open the way for the March trough at 14,459, though. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 futures point to higher open after several dismal weeks Last week the S&P 500 slipped to its 4,104 late May low as investors worried about an escalation in the Middle East. This week all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the middle of the week and US employment data. The S&P 500 may rise to its accelerated downtrend line at 4,162 above which the early October low at 4,200 may also act as resistance. For any significant bullish reversal to gain traction not only the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,251 would need to be exceeded but also Tuesday’s high at 4,266, the last reaction high on the daily candlestick chart. A fall through 4,104 could lead to the next lower May low at 4,047 being back in sight, however. Source: ProRealTime

Being one of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks which account for the bulk of the US indices’ gains year-to-date, its upcoming earnings may play a crucial role in determining the indices’ trend into year end. Source: Bloomberg Shares Apple Inc. iPhone Revenue United States Artificial intelligence Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 30 October 2023 08:59 When does Apple Inc report earnings? Apple Inc is set to release its quarter four (Q4) financial results on 2 November 2023, after market closes. Apple’s earnings – what to expect Current market expectations are for Apple’s Q4 revenue to decline marginally by 1% year-on-year to US$89.3 billion versus US$90.1 billion a year ago. On the other hand, earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be at US$1.39, up 7.7% year-on-year and 10.3% from the previous quarter. Its Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) margin is expected to improve to 32.2% as well, up slightly from the previous quarter’s 31.9%. Being one of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks which account for the bulk of the US indices’ gains year-to-date, its upcoming earnings may play a crucial role in determining the indices’ trend into year end. Apple generally has a strong record of outperformance, only failing to meet earnings estimates once over the past 20 quarters. That said, recent sell-off in big tech share prices despite delivering top and bottom beat reflects that market participants also have a high bar as to whether current earnings momentum can be maintained ahead. Source: Refinitiv Apple’s hardware product sales may continue to struggle The Greater China market accounts for one-fifth of Apple’s revenue last year and thus far, there are not much conviction that demand on that front can hold up just yet. A report from Counterpoint Research suggests that iPhone 15 sales for the first 17 days of sales in China has underperformed last year’s iPhone 14 (an estimated 4.5% lower). Unit sales of the higher-end Pro Max and Pro are down 14% and 11% versus last year. Apart from attributing the weaker iPhone demand to cautious Chinese consumers, Huawei’s newly launched Mate 60 series has also proved to be strong competition. Reports suggest that Huawei’s smartphone sales growth has increased 37% year-on-year in Q3 2023 (versus Apple’s estimated 10% decline), as its new Kirin chips as a response to US tech sanctions seem to be well-received. If China’s recent efforts to restrict the use of iPhones for government officials and employees at state-owned enterprises were true, further US-China tech decoupling may remain a risk to China’s iPhone demand ahead. The bright side is that on the other end of the globe, reception for the iPhone 15 series in the US (Apple’s main market) may offer some cushion with estimated double-digit increases from a year ago. Current expectations are that the overall net effect may still drive a slightly lukewarm 2.4% year-on-year increase in iPhone revenue for the Q3 2023 results. On the other hand, other hardware products are expected to weigh for longer, with further contraction to be presented from a year ago (estimated iPad -14.6%, Mac -24.7%, other products -2.2%). Source: Refinitiv Services business to remain the bright spot Perhaps not much of a surprise, in line with the prevailing trend, expectations are for the growth in Apple’s services business to continue accelerating to 11.4% year-on-year in Q3 2023, up from the previous quarter’s 8.2%. This segment has been the crown jewel for Apple in recent years, being its highest-growth and highest-margin business, along with a recurring revenue-generating model. It includes subscriptions, warranties, licensing fees and Apple Pay. Thus far, growth in its paid subscriptions continues to show strong momentum, rising by 150 million in the last year to surpass the one-billion mark and setting an all-time revenue record in the last reporting quarter. Guidance for growth catalysts on watch, but more for longer term Any guidance around Apple’s growth catalysts will also remain on watch to diversify the company’s revenue stream further away from iPhone sales (48.5% of total revenue) over the longer term. It has previously announced its Apple Vision Pro headset, which is expected to launch early next year. Apple is also tapping on its huge user base to include financial services as part of its ecosystem, offering a high-yield saving account program for Apple Card holders. Previous quarter’s guidance showed that customers were already making more than $10 billion in deposits. More notably, its work on generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be in greater focus. Given that the company is reportedly working on multiple AI models across several teams and investing millions of dollars per day, any fresh updates on any generative AI tools, models or services will be on close watch. Technical analysis – Trading below its 200-day MA for the first time since March 2023 Apple’s share price has broken below its Ichimoku cloud support on the daily chart back in August this year and subsequent attempts to reclaim the cloud zone have been unsuccessful ever since. That seems to keep a downward bias intact for now, with its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossing below the key 50 level last week, while its closely-watched 200-day moving average (MA) has also given way. Buyers will now face the arduous task of having to reclaim the 200-day MA back in order to provide some conviction of near-term upside. Failing which, prices may potentially head lower to retest the US$161.04 level, where a near-term lower channel trendline may coincide with a key Fibonacci retracement level. Source: IG charts This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Coinbase is set to report Q3 earnings on November 3, with Wall Street eyeing a revenue surge and loss per share improvement. Find out what analysts predict and explore the key resistance and support levels. Source: Bloomberg Shares Coinbase Market trend Revenue Financial analyst Cryptocurrency Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 27 October 2023 14:14 When will Coinbase report and what does Wall Street expect? Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions) will report earnings on 3 November at 7 am AEDT for its third quarter. Revenue is expected to be $653.19 million, up 10% compared to last year. It is forecast to report a loss per share of 54 cents, which is a significant improvement on last year’s -$2.43 for Q3. Coinbase's earnings history Coinbase reported robust second-quarter results, exceeding analyst expectations. The company logged revenues of $708 million, surpassing estimates, and reported an adjusted loss of 0.42 per share, which was also better than anticipated. However, there were some areas of concern in Coinbase's performance. Transaction revenue for the second quarter totalled $327 million, down from $375 million in the previous quarter. This decrease is attributed to low volatility in the cryptocurrency market during that period. Additionally, total trading volume fell to $92 billion, compared to $145 billion in Q1. What do analysts think? Data from Reuters indicates that 25 analysts are currently covering Coinbase. Of these, eight have issued 'Buy' ratings, ten have 'Hold' ratings, and seven have 'Sell' ratings. The current median target price stands at $80, representing a 2.5% decline from the closing price as of 24 October 2023. Coinbase technical analysis The price has consolidated since August, after a pullback from the July peak. Recent gains have seen the price rebound before sellers pushed the price lower again. It has faltered around the $83.50 mark, a key zone of resistance since September last year. A close above $86.20 might provide a bullish catalyst and open the way to further gains. A more bearish view requires a drop back below $70, which has provided support since August. Coinbase daily chart Source: ProRealTime This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The gold price leapt to new highs as haven demand continues; the psychological $2,000 mark has been eclipsed with volatility ticking up and the FOMC meeting lies ahead. Will it provide price swings for XAU/USD? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities Gold United States dollar United States Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Monday 30 October 2023 05:20 The price of gold ahead of FOMC meeting The spot gold price cleared the psychological $2,000 level last Friday as markets prepare for this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that will conclude on Wednesday. Treasury yields have eased from recent peaks, but remain elevated with the benchmark 10-year bond trading at 5.02% last week, its highest yield since 2007. It consequently raced back down toward 4.80% and has seen whippy price action since. The run-up in the return on US government debt has helped to underpin the US dollar. In addition, perceived haven assets such as USD and gold have appreciated with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East assisting to undermine growth and risk-orientated assets. In loose terms, when the US dollar and Treasury yields rise, gold sometimes comes under selling pressure. Similarly, when US real yields are advancing, gold occasionally slips as it is a non-interest-bearing asset. US real yields through 2023 US real yields have been on the march higher through 2023 and recently stretched to a 15-year peak at the 10-year part of the curve, trading above 2.60%. The real yield is the nominal yield, less the market-priced inflation rate derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) for the same tenor. A combination of higher nominal yields and an easing of inflation expectations has boosted it in this latest surge. Looking at the chart below, the elevated 10-year Treasury yields, real yields and DXY index are yet to impact the gold price, but it might be worth watching should those markets move abruptly. The interest rate market is pricing no change for the Fed funds target rate at Wednesday’s FOMC conclave but the post-decision discussion from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could provide some impetus for the gold price. Spot gold, DXY (USD) index, US 10-year Treasury and real yield Source: TradingView All this price action across markets has seen gold volatility tick higher as measured by the GVZ index. The GVZ index measures implied volatility in the gold price in a similar way that the VIX index gauges volatility in the S&P 500. At the same time, the width of the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Bands. has expanded. The Bolling Bands represent historical volatility. Spot gold, Bollinger Bands and GVZ index Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

USD/CAD is testing major resistance; AUD/CAD is attempting to rebound from strong support. What is the outlook and key levels to watch in USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, and AUD/CAD? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Canadian dollar USD/CAD United States dollar Inflation Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 30 October 2023 06:01 The Canadian dollar is testing the lower end of the past one-year range against the US dollar after the Bank of Canada (BoC) governor last week indicated that interest rates may have peaked. BoC Governor, Tiff Macklem indicated last week that the central bank may not need to raise rates further if inflation continues to moderate. However, the central bank governor added that the BoC would be looking for “clear evidence” that inflation is heading toward the 2% target before it would cut interest rates. BoC kept benchmark rates at a 22-year high on Wednesday but left the door open for more hikes saying inflation could exceed its target for another two years. Markets are pricing in a very small chance of another rate hike at its next meeting in December. USD/CAD weekly chart Source: TradingView USD/CAD: looming bullish break? USD/CAD has been testing a major barrier on the upper edge of a sideways channel since late 2022 (that comes at about 1.3900-1.3975). This resistance is strong and may not be easily broken – at least in the first attempt. However, any break above could open the way toward the 2020 high of 1.4675. For the upward pressure to begin fading, USD/CAD would need to fall under the early October high of 1.3785. But, the broader upward pressure is unlikely to ease while it holds above the September low of 1.3375. USD/CAD has maintained a steady uptrend since mid-2023, rebounding from a crucial cushion on the 200-week moving average, coinciding with an uptrend line from 2021. AUD/CAD daily chart Source: TradingView AUD/CAD: holding support for now AUD/CAD is holding above strong support at the end-2022 low of 0.8600. Still, this wouldn’t necessarily mean that the downtrend is reversing – it could, but for that the cross would need to initially break above the 89-day moving average, coinciding with the upper edge of a declining channel since mid-2023. For a sustained rebound to occur, the cross would need to clear the June high of 0.9100. EUR/CAD: consolidation within a bullish phase EUR/CAD has remained sideways for much of this year. However, there is no sign of a reversal of the bullish structure that began last year. The cross holds quite strong support on a horizontal trendline from early 2023, slightly above the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts (at about 1.4000). Only a break below 1.4000 would confirm that the upward pressure had faded. EUR/CAD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Thanks for sharing @Carl-Gustav All the best - MongiIG

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 30 October Chris Beauchamp's insight Earnings season, heightened tensions in the Middle East and a plethora of central bank decisions by the likes of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Federal Reserve bank (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) will dominate the calendar this week ahead of Friday’s all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls. Eurozone and German preliminary quarter 3 (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) might also keep volatility at its recent elevated levels. Economic reports Weekly view Monday 1pm – German inflation (October (preliminary): prices expected to rise 4% Year-over-year (YoY). Markets to watch: EUR crosses Tuesday 1.30am – China PMI (October): previous readings were 50.2 for manufacturing and 51.7 for non-manufacturing. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 3am – BoJ rate decision: rates expected to remain at -0.1%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses 8am – German GDP (Q3, flash): growth forecast to be -0.1% Quarter on quarter (QoQ) and -0.3% YoY. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 10am – eurozone GDP (Q3, flash): QoQ growth forecast to be 0.4% and YoY to be -0.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 2pm – US consumer confidence (October): index forecast to fall to 100. Markets to watch: USD crosses Wednesday 1.45am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (October): previous reading 50.6. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 12.15pm – US ADP employment report (October): previous reading 89K. Markets to watch: USD crosses 2pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (October): forecast to remain at 49. Markets to watch: USD crosses 2.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 27 October): stockpiles rose by 1.37 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI 6pm – US Fed rate decision: rates expected to remain at 5.5%. Press conference at 6.30pm. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Thursday 12pm – Bank of England rate decision: no change in rates from current 5.25% expected. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 12.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 28 October): jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 210,000 in the previous week. Markets to watch: USD crosses Friday 1.45am – China Caixin services PMI (October): previous reading 50.2. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 12.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (October): 172K jobs expected to have been created, down from 336K in September. Unemployment rate to remain at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% Month-on-Month (MoM). Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 12.30pm – Canada employment data (October): unemployment rate to hold at 5.5%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 2pm – US ISM services PMI (October): index to fall to 52.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Company announcements Monday 30 October Tuesday 31 October Wednesday 1 November Thursday 2 November Friday 3 November Full-year earnings Half/ Quarterly earnings HSBC BP Aston Martin Lagonda, GSK Shell, Trainline, BT Group, Sainsbury’s Trading update* Pearson, Glencore Next Entain, Haleon Dividends FTSE 100: Whitbread FTSE 250: ME Group, Ashmore, Hilton Food, Renishaw, PZ Cussons, Tritax Big Box Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 30 October Tuesday 31 October Wednesday 1 November Thursday 2 November Friday 3 November Monday 6 November FTSE 100 0.27 Australia 200 0.1 0.2 Wall Street 0.8 US 500 0.28 0.02 0.28 0.20 0.13 0.09 Nasdaq 0.17 0.58 0.26 0.80 Netherlands 25 0.27 EU Stocks 50 2.8 0.8 China H-Shares 0.5 Singapore Blue Chip 0.08 0.07 0.05 Hong Kong HS50 0.8 8.7 South Africa 40 Italy 40 Japan 225

Asian stocks mostly decline amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and ahead of a busy week with monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve and Bank of England. German and Spanish inflation, Eurozone preliminary Q3 GDP and US employment data as well as the ongoing earnings season are likely to keep volatility at recently elevated levels. A mixed open is expected for the European session.

Coinbase endured a tough Q2, but some improvement in performance is expected for Q3 compared to last year, with the loss per share expected to shrink. Source: Bloomberg Shares Coinbase Price Market trend Technical analysis Candlestick Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 27 October 2023 14:14 Coinbase earnings – what does Wall Street expect? Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions) will report earnings on 2 November for its third quarter. Revenue is expected to be $653.19 million, up 10% compared to last year. It is forecast to report a loss per share of 54 cents, which is a significant improvement on last year’s -$2.43 for Q3. What happened at the last earnings? Coinbase reported strong second-quarter results, surpassing analyst expectations. The company recorded revenues of $708 million, exceeding estimates, and reported adjusted earnings of a loss of 0.42 per share, which was also better than expected. However, there were some areas of concern in Coinbase's report. Transaction revenue for the second quarter came in at $327 million, down from $375 million in the previous quarter. This decline can be attributed to the low volatility in the cryptocurrency market during this period. Additionally, total trading volume dropped to $92 billion, compared to $145 billion in Q1. Coinbase outlook – what do analysts think? Data from Reuters shows that 25 analysts currently cover Coinbase. Of these, eight have ‘buy’ ratings, with ten ‘holds’ and 7 ‘sell’ ratings. The current median target price is $80, which would be a 2.5% decline from the close as of 24 October 2023. Coinbase shares – technical analysis The price has consolidated since August, after a pullback from the July peak. Recent gains have seen the price rebound before sellers pushed the price lower again. Coinbase Daily Candlestick Chart Source: ProRealTime It has faltered around the $83.50 mark, a key zone of resistance since September last year. A close above $86.20 might provide a bullish catalyst, and open the way to further gains. A more bearish view requires a drop back below $70, which has provided support since August. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The disturbance around GBP/USD is expected over two days next week with the US rate decision on Wednesday and the UK the day after. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 27 October 2023 11:11 IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the potential for a short sterling position with a view to breaking the close line of support at $1.2038. If and when this goes, there’s a further re-grouping the trade around the new lower price target of $1.1805. (AI Video Transcript) The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England Next week, there are two important decisions coming up about interest rates. One is from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US, and the other is from the Bank of England (BoE). Experts think that both banks will keep the interest rates the same. This is because government officials and the financial markets have hinted at this. As a result, the USD is expected to do better than the British pound. The US economy The US economy is doing well right now. We know this from the recent economic data. This means the Fed can keep the interest rates where they are. Some people think there might be a small increase of 25 basis points, but most don't expect this to happen at the upcoming meeting. However, the Fed might adopt a more strict approach, which could make the US dollar stronger compared to the GBP. The UK economy On the other hand, the UK economy is not as strong as the US. People believe that the BoE not only won't change the interest rates, but they may also indicate that inflation and economic growth could go down even more. Because of these reasons, it may be a good idea to bet against the pound and in favor of the US dollar. GBP/USD Right now, the exchange rate is about 1.20-1.20. But if the price goes above 1.22, it might go all the way up to 1.20-1.38. If it keeps going up, the next level of support would be at 1.18-1.05, which was the lowest point on March 8th. To sum it up, because of the interest rate meetings, it's recommended to bet against the pound and in favor of the US dollar. The US economy is strong and the Fed might adopt a stricter approach, which would make the US dollar even stronger. On the other hand, the UK economy is not doing as well, which could hurt the pound. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Beijing has stepped up its support for its beleaguered economy with a new phase of central government interventions. However, these bolstering measures only managed to support Chinese stocks for one day. Source: Bloomberg Hang Seng Index Indices China GDP Stock market Relative strength index Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Thursday 26 October 2023 11:14 After reporting better-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter of the year, Beijing has stepped up its support for its beleaguered economy this week with a new phase of central government interventions. However, these bolstering measures only managed to support Chinese stocks for one day. China’s new stimulus measures China announced its new economic stimulus plan on Tuesday, which includes increasing the fiscal deficit ratio from 3% to 3.8% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and issuing an additional 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in sovereign debt during the fourth quarter, with the claimed intention to support disaster relief and infrastructure. It's worth noting that China has rarely adjusted its budget mid-year, with previous instances occurring in 2008 following the Magnitude 7.9 Sichuan earthquake and during the late 1990s amid the turmoil of the Asian financial crisis. Hence, it’s not hard to see that this week’s move not only open the door to the next level of support from central government but, more importantly, highlights the heightened sense of urgency among top policymakers to revitalize the economy. So, how are investors responding to the new boost? Equity markets initially reacted positively to the support measures, however, the rally didn’t last long and the price movements suggested that traders remain skeptical of whether these supports are sufficient to halt the downtrend of the world's second-largest economy. The CSI 300 Index closed only 0.5% higher on Wednesday, less than half of its earlier gains which Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index finished up by less than 1% despite jumping as much as 3% in early hours. Hang Seng Index Hang Seng’s daily chart has revealed a newly formed downward-sloping trendline resistance (red line), while support is being held around the previous August-October trendline (black line). It appears that the yearly-low level at 16,971 may face another test in the near term before breaking and opening up the floor to the November 28th, 2022 swing low at 16,812. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also points to a downside risk as it is now hovering close to the over-sold territory below the midpoint. On the flip side, imminent resistance comes from the early October low, sitting at 17,176. Source: IG Hang Seng Tech Index Jumping out from its bear-market zone, Hang Seng Tech Index briefly attempted to regain the 20-day moving average (MA) but quickly retreated under a distinct resistance at 3754 (early Oct low). Overall, the price remains closely aligned with its descending trajectory and faces the risk of retesting its four-month-low in the range of 3600-3619 if slides further. Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Gold remains one of the best portfolio hedges in the eyes of many investors, and particularly when geopolitical tensions rise. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities Gold United States Israel Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 27 October 2023 01:50 Gold is currently trading close to its record high, at $1,985/oz, having risen steadily since the start of the Israel-Hamas war on 7 October. The traditional real asset inflation-hedge remains a favoured investment in times of geopolitical volatility — as it can act to preserve purchasing power through inflationary periods and also hedge against falling equities. For context, during the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 fell by 37% while gold rose by 24%. With several analysts now expecting a harder global economic landing, amid fears that a regional war in the Middle East could keep Brent Crude elevated, gold prices could rise even higher. Israel-Hamas war updates Sadly, the war seems to show no signs of abating — though according to Wall Street Journal sources, the expected ground invasion of North Gaza by Israel is being delayed, to allow the US to place air defences in the region to protect US troops. Meanwhile, EU leaders are calling for ‘pauses’ in the fighting to allow ‘rapid, safe, and unhindered’ access for aid into Gaza, after expressing the ‘gravest concern for the humanitarian situation’ on the ground. Further, UN official Martin Griffiths has warned that aid is ‘barely trickling’ into Gaza. Other than access to water, the key contention is fuel — with Israel accusing Hamas of stockpiling vital reserves. More than 1,400 people were killed in the initial Hamas attacks on Israel, and Israel says more than 220 people are still being held as hostages. However, Hamas has claimed that 50 hostages have been killed by Israeli bombardments — alongside 7,000 Palestinians in the Strip. While US President Biden considers that there is no going back to the status quo between Israeli and Palestinians ‘as it stood on 6 October,’ many analysts think that the next true escalation will begin with the ground invasion of Gaza — which may or may not come. Gold price risks and rewards While further escalation in the Middle East could see gold rise higher, it’s also worth noting that US GDP grew by a significant 4.9% in the third quarter. While there are some caveats to this headline figure, it does give the Federal Reserve space to keep rates higher for longer, especially as CPI inflation in the US has crept back up to 3.7%. While the US central bank is expected to pause next week, it has strongly hinted that one more hike may be coming down the track. With 10 year US Treasury yields already at 5%, even higher rates could act as a headwind for gold prices. For context, gold’s price trades in an unofficial pair with the US Dollar as rate rises make the global reserve currency more attractive, leading to gold selloffs. Longer-term — and with a strong caveat that all investments come with risk — many investors consider the wider macroeconomic environment to be favourable for the precious metal. Aside from the Middle East, there was already huge geopolitical tensions concerning both Russia and Ukraine, and China and Taiwan. Globally, the fight with inflation is not over, with many central banks still tackling price rises significantly above the usual 2% target. There are also widespread concerns over how historically elevated public and private debt piles can be managed through this high rate environment. Nevertheless, rates across most of the western world may be close to a peak, as the economic damage of further hikes could trigger a recession more damaging than the remaining inflation. Central banks are also reversing decades of prior policy and are buying gold at a record pace. For context, the World Gold Council estimates they added a whopping 1,136 tonnes of gold worth some $70 billion to their stockpiles in 2022, by far the most of any year in records going back to 1950. Overall, this could leave gold as an attractive portfolio investment, though historically, equities have tended to outperform the precious metal over the long term. But of course, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Asian shares rose Friday defying the latest tumble on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level in five months. An easing of the technology stock rout due to better-than-expected earnings by Amazon and Intel counter balanced risk-off sentiment as the Israeli military said its troops and tanks had briefly entered northern Gaza. The oil price rose by $1, together with the greenback while gold continues its advance towards the $2,000 mark ahead of the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation data out later today.

Brent crude, silver and natural gas look to move higher Commodity prices have made further headway, with silver and Brent crude looking for further gains. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 October 2023 11:32 Brent rallies further Oil prices came storming back on Wednesday, helping to negate a rising bearish view. The price moved back above trendline support once more, having closed below it on Tuesday. The 50-day SMA was also recovered, in an impressive double-whammy for the commodity. If the price can move above $90 then the bullish view continues to gather pace. Wednesday’s move seems to cancel out the possible bearish view, and it would need a close back below $88 to reverse the outlook once more. Source: ProRealTime Silver pushes higher Silver is not giving up its gains lightly, consolidating and finding buyers on the intraday dips. A close back below $22.50 eludes the price for now, leaving the commodity in a more neutral stance. A close back above $23 could hand the buyers the advantage once more. Sellers need the close back below $22.50 to help solidify a bearish outlook, which might then see a resumption of the downtrend in place from May. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas rally revives The pullback appears to have run its course here, with the price rallying sharply for a third day on Wednesday. Renewed gains target the 3585 highs from early October, and above this a new higher high is created. The buyers have reasserted control, and a continuation of the uptrend seems likely at this point. Sellers will need a reversal of the gains of the week so far to suggest a new leg of the pullback is underway. Source: ProRealTime

Meta shares climb then fall after better than forecast Q3 Facebook owner Meta Platforms reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter. Earnings per share came in at $4.39 versus estimates of $3.63 while revenue was $34.15 billion against $33.56 billion expected. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 October 2023 10:16 Revenue increased 23%, the fastest rate of growth since 2021. This represents an outperformance versus competitors. Google parent Alphabet said ad revenue increased about 9.5%, while smaller rival Snap reported revenue growth of 5%. The stock initially rose in extended trading after the report, but then reversed course and fell more than 6.7% on concerns about potential ad softness tied to the Middle East conflict. (AI Video Transcript) Meta's revenue growth Meta had a fantastic third quarter, with their revenue growing by a remarkable 23%, which is the fastest growth they've seen since 2021. They also did really well with their earnings per share, exceeding expectations. Other big companies like Google's parent company Alphabet and Snap also saw increases in their ad revenue, with Alphabet reporting a 9.5% increase and Snap reporting a 5% growth. Meta's stock But even with all this great news, Meta's stock initially went up in extended trading, but then it changed course and fell more than 3%. The company's CFO, Susan Lee, expressed some concerns about potential ad softness connected to the Middle East conflict, which was similar to what Snap had mentioned before. Despite these cautionary comments and the stock's decline, Meta's stock is still up about 150% this year, making it the second-best performer in the S&P 500. The only company doing better is chip maker NVIDIA. The Middle East conflict So, considering the cautionary comments and the stock's fall in extended trading, experts expect that Meta will experience a loss when trading resumes on Wall Street. This doesn't mean that Meta is doing poorly overall, as they have had an exceptional year, but it's important to keep in mind the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on their ad revenue. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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The Israel-Hamas war, rising US Treasuries yield, high interest rates and weakening AI bubble could all be headwinds to consider. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Commodities Nasdaq United States United States Treasury security Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 October 2023 18:36 The NASDAQ 100 index — comprising the 100 of the largest non-financial NASDAQ-listed stocks by market capitalization — has risen by circa 36% year-to-date. However, the index hit a 2023 peak of 15,841 points in mid-July and has now fallen by over 1,000 points to just 14,745. To put this performance into context: 2022 saw the tech-heavy index lose 32.4% of its value compared to the S&P 500’s 18.1% fall and the FTSE 100’s slight rise. As earnings season continues amid rising geopolitical tensions, here are four interlinked factors to consider for the index’s future performance: NASDAQ 100: four factors to watch 1. Israel-Hamas war NASDAQ investors have good reason to worry that the war between Israel and Hamas could escalate into a regional war involving Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Lebanon. Most recently, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres — while calling the attacks by Hamas ‘appalling’ — has come under fire from Israel for saying that they did not happen ‘in a vacuum’ as there had been ’56 years of suffocating occupation.’ Meanwhile, fuel is close to running out in Gaza as Israel is preventing imports — though Israel also argues that Hamas is stockpiling hundreds of thousands of litres. Brent Crude remains elevated at circa $90 per barrel, reflecting fears that US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, or a closure of what the EIA calls the world’s most important oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, may occur. As a general rule, higher oil prices can have a negative effect on NASDAQ tech stocks. 2. US Treasuries 10 year US Treasury yields are now at 5% and this completely risk-free return is causing some alarm. To start with, US inflation may not be cooling — while the CPI rate may be at 3.7%, this is above the 3% reading of June and nearly double the official 2% target. Meanwhile US federal debt (the deficit) now stands at a whopping $33 trillion, up by $1.6 billion since the political showdown to increase the debt ceiling earlier this year. The US will need to sell more Treasuries to fund its current debt and finance even more at worse rates over the next few years. These risks could be weighing heavily on the NASDAQ 100. 3. Interest rates Tied into the Treasuries debate, the federal funds rate is currently at 5.25% to 5.50%. The markets are currently pricing in a ‘higher for longer’ scenario and also at least one more hike. Of course, with inflation already proving to be stickier than expected, this may be an optimistic outlook — and any escalation in the Middle East that sends oil higher could see rates rise further than the market expects at present. The pandemic era of ultraloose monetary policy saw NASDAQ 100 stocks hit record highs, but the headache of tightening policy was also responsible for the bear market of 2022. Further rate hikes could well send NASDAQ 100 shares lower. 4. The AI bubble The so-called ‘magnificent seven’ are responsible for much of the NASDAQ’s gains in 2023 — Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Apple and Nvidia. These companies are arguably riding a wave of AI euphoria caused by generative AI disruptors such as ChatGPT. With the index becoming perhaps too one-sided, July saw a special rebalance where some of the weight assigned to the largest tech stocks was reassigned to smaller growth companies. Nvidia and Microsoft were most affected, each losing about three percentage points in terms of weighting. There is now evidence that some of the AI positivity is falling. Yesterday, Alphabet reported that Q3 revenue rose by 11.6% year-over-year to $76.69 billion, above analyst predictions of $75.9 billion — yet shares in the behemoth have fallen by 9.3% since. The company may be facing a landmark antitrust lawsuit from the US government amid a headcount reduction, but the bigger problem is potentially that the Cloud division only managed to generate $8.41 billion compared to expectations for $8.64 billion. For context, the division only started turning a profit in Q1 and has been running since 2008. With more upsets perhaps to follow, the NASDAQ 100 may have further to fall through Q4. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The BoJ is set to hold their monetary meeting across 30 – 31 October 2023, with market participants holding their breath for possible BoJ policy action. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Bank of Japan Bond Inflation Japan Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 26 October 2023 04:36 What to expect at the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting? The BoJ is set to hold their monetary meeting across 30 – 31 October 2023, with wide consensus for its short-term interest rate target to be kept unchanged at -0.1% and for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. The key focus will revolve around whether the central bank will deliver further tweaks to its yield curve control policy (currently at a 1% upper limit) or any other policy adjustment, given the recent rise in Japan’s 10-year government bond yields to its decade high. Recent media report by Nikkei revealed that it will be a topic of discussion at the upcoming meeting, but there has not been a clear consensus among policymakers around the central bank’s next move or its timing just yet. Thus far, broad market expectations are priced for Japan to scrap its negative rates in the first half of 2024, still very much anchored by the BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s previous comments of having enough data by this year-end to determine its rate outlook. Source: Refinitiv, as of 25 October 2023. Upcoming meeting to be a ‘live’ one This week, the Japanese 10-year government bond yields witnessed a fresh decade high, with yields briefly touching the 0.875% level, almost double the 0.460% level just three months back. While there are still room before it tests the BoJ’s 1% upper limit, the relentless rise in Japan’s 10-year yields reflects some resilience to the six rounds of bond-buying operations by the BoJ since July 2023 and continues to reveal hawkish bets in place for further policy normalisation. The implied volatility for the 10-year government bonds futures has also witnessed a surge ahead of the upcoming meeting, suggesting that markets are expecting the meeting to be a ‘live’ one with possible BoJ policy action. Japanese Government Bond (JGB) futures are also back to retest its nine-year low, with broad positioning in place for potentially weaker bond prices. Source: TradingView Source: TradingView Upcoming meeting to bring fresh forecasts on growth and inflation conditions Back in July this year, inflation forecasts for FY2023 and FY2024 were guided at 2.5% and 1.9% respectively, but current expectations are that these figures may be revised higher at the upcoming meeting. This follows after core inflation in Japan came in higher-than-expected in September for its third straight month, while oil prices have gained more than 20% since its July meeting. Market focus will revolve around policymakers’ views of whether an upward revision in the inflation forecasts may meet their condition of ‘sustainable inflation’ for a policy pivot. On the other hand, BoJ doves may still tap on the absence of an upward build in wage pressures to argue their case for more wait-and-see. Japan’s wage growth has softened to 1.1% in August, which marked its third straight month of moderation. The conflicting signs seem to make any policy move at the upcoming meeting harder to grasp, with a more even split in views likely to trigger volatility on any BoJ action (or inaction). Source: Refinitiv USD/JPY: Respecting the intervention level of 150.00 Rising US-Japan bond yield differentials have been supportive of USD/JPY’s upside, but recent moves for the pair has stalled around the key psychological 150.00 level – a level where Japanese authorities intervened back in October 2022 with US$42.4 billion of yen-buying to prop up the currency. A move similar to that of October 2022 was observed recently on 3 October 2023, where a retest of the 150.00 level was met with a strong sell-off of 280 pips within a span of minutes. The sharp move has raised speculations of possible intervention efforts by authorities and although it has not been acknowledged by Japanese officials, the 150.00 level is now looked upon as a line of caution for buyers, serving as a key resistance for the USD/JPY to overcome. Overall, the higher-highs-higher-lows formation since the start of the year still keeps an upward trend intact for now, with its daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering above the key 50 level. Any success in reclaiming the 150.00 level may support a move towards the 152.00 level, while on the downside, any retracement may leave the 145.80 level on watch as immediate support. Source: IG charts Nikkei 225: Attempting to find support from lower channel trendline The Nikkei 225 index has been guided by a falling channel pattern since June this year, with recent moves attempting to find support from the lower channel trendline at the 30,700 level. This level coincides with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from its January 2023 low to June 2023 high, which may support some views of a bullish flag formation still in place. Any signs of a quicker pivot from current accommodative policies at the upcoming meeting may translate to downside risks for the index, with any breakdown of the lower channel trendline support potentially paving the way to retest the 29,800 level next. On the upside, the upper channel trendline may serve as key resistance to overcome at the 32,400 level. Source: IG charts IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer. Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. 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Navigating the nuanced terrain of EUR/AUD and AUD/NZD technical analysis reveals a propensity for range trading. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares EUR/AUD AUD/NZD Technical analysis Australian dollar Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Thursday 26 October 2023 05:07 EUR/AUD technical analysis EUR/AUD has been contained between 1.6200 and 1.7100 for four months and might be in range trading mode for now. The price has struggled this week to overcome the recent peaks just below 1.6900 when it topped out at 1.6845 on Monday. Those levels might offer resistance on another retest ahead of the two-year high at 1.7065. The dip on Wednesday stopped short of the 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) near 1.6550 and it may provide support on another sell-off. Further down, support could be at the previous lows at 1.6445 and 1.6320 ahead of a potential support zone in the 1.6235 and 1.6265. The clustering of the 10-, 21-, 34-, 55- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) between 1.6550 and 1.6710 could support the range trading perspective. EUR/AUD daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/AUD weekly technical analysis Zooming out to the weekly chart, EUR/AUD remains in an ascending trend channel. The price has been trading above the 52-week SMA since September 2022, when the trend started to emerge. A cross below this SMA might indicate an exhaustion of the trend. EUR/AUD weekly chart Source: TradingView AUD/NZD technical analysis AUD/NZD has a tendency for range trading, albeit sometimes quite wide ranges, and this is not surprising given the close proximity and similarities of the two economies. Similar to EUR/AUD above, the clustering of the 10-, 34-, 55- 100-, 200- and 260-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) in AUD/NZD between 1.0777 and 1.0825 could back up the range trading perspective. The price action yesterday displays a Spinning Top Candlestick and it could suggest that a reversal might be in play. The peak seen yesterday at 1.0916 was just shy of the September high of 1.0918 and the July high of 1.0926. This area may offer resistance on a rally ahead of a potential resistance zone near 1.1050. Support may lie at the existing breakpoints or previous lows of 1.0732, 1.0725, 1.0718, 1.0610 and 1.0560. AUD/NZD daily chart Source: TradingView AUD/NZD weekly technical analysis The narrowing of ranges has seen AUD/NZD create a Symmetrical Triangle. It is currently trading above the upper edge of the triangle and if it closes above the descending trend line, it might signal a breakout and bullish momentum might emerge. If it does not close above the descending trend line, it could prove to be a false break and the triangle formation would be intact in that scenario, potentially signalling a reversal. AUD/NZD weekly chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

USD/JPY is once again testing the psychological 150 mark; risk of intervention is growing amid speculation of a tweak in BOJ YCC policy. What is the outlook and key levels to watch in select JPY crosses? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Bank of Japan Japanese yen USD/JPY United States dollar Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 26 October 2023 07:44 The Japanese yen is retesting the psychological 150 mark against the US dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s policy meeting next week. USD/JPY is within the zone that prompted the BOJ to intervene last year, a possibility highlighted in September. Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday authorities are closely watching moves with a sense of urgency and warned investors against selling the yen. USD/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView BOJ’s ultra-easy monetary policy contrasts with its peers, where central banks have tightened monetary policy at an unprecedented pace to tackle inflation, pressuring the yen. Rising global yields and inflation have pushed Japanese yields higher. This has put pressure on the BOJ to tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy, which the central bank uses to manage yields. The Japanese central bank tweaked the YCC policy a few months ago to allow for greater flexibility, and it could further adjust the policy when it meets next week. USD/JPY 240-minute chart Source: TradingView USD/JPY: flirts with psychological 150 USD/JPY is once again retesting the psychological 150 mark, slightly below the 2022 high of 152.00. There is no sign of a reversal of the uptrend – the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows, albeit gradually. USD/JPY continues to hold above the 200-period moving average (at about 148.75) on the 240-minute chart, around Tuesday’s low of 149.25. A break below 148.75-149.25 would confirm that the upward pressure had faded in the interim. For a more sustained consolidation to occur, USD/JPY would need to crack under the early-October low of 147.35. On the upside, a decisive break above 150.00-152.00 could open the door toward the 1990 high of 160.35. GBP/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView GBP/JPY: bullish move ahead? GBP/JPY has gone sideways in recent days but continues to hold under a significant converged hurdle at the mid-October high of 183.75, and the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. As highlighted in the previous update. The recent correction lower since August is a sign of consolidation within the broader uptrend, and not necessarily a sign of reversal. The cross has major support at the July low of 176.25, which could limit extended weakness. EUR/JPY: at the top end of the range EUR/JPY is back at the top end of the recent range of 154.00-160.00. Importantly, despite the consolidation, the cross continues to hold above a vital cushion on the 89-day moving average, coinciding with the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts, near the early-October low of 154.50. This support area is strong and could be tough to crack, especially in the context of the broader uptrend following the break earlier this year above strong resistance at the 2014 high of 149.75. EUR/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The risk-off mood remains pronounced across global markets. Earnings from Meta beat expectations but a warning about ad revenue in upcoming quarters drove the stock lower. Far from reviving risk appetite, tech earnings this week seem to have driven the sell-off, so all eyes are on Amazon tonight to see if the retail giant's figures are any different. Today's big event is the ECB meeting. A pause in rate hikes is expected, after a run of poor PMI figures and weak lending data in the eurozone mean that the ECB is expected to avoid piling any more pressure on the economy. A fresh rise in Treasury yields, including the ten-year's move back to 5%, has caused investors to dump stocks again, while the yen moved above 150 against the dollar again, in a move that may well trigger intervention by Japanese authorities. Another weaker open is expected for European and US indices.

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While gold is still holding on to the gains made in the past two weeks, oil prices have dropped back and cotton prices are sitting on trendline support. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 October 2023 12:38 Gold still holding up well A dip on Tuesday was met by buying pressure, avoiding any bigger drop for now, but bullish momentum seems to have firmly slowed. Nonetheless, a short-term consolidation/pullback requires a move below $1950, which might then open the way to the 200-day SMA. A daily close above $1984 is needed to revive bullish momentum. Source: ProRealTime WTI resumes its fall Oil’s steep losses continue, and Tuesday saw the price slump below the 50-day SMA once again. Short-term trendline support from the October low remains in place for now, which might yet see the price stage a bigger recovery, targeting $90. A close below $82.80 would break trendline support and potentially open the way to 6 October low at $81 and then the 100-day SMA. Source: ProRealTime Cotton fights to hold trendline support The price fell back on Tuesday after rebounding from the 200-day SMA on Monday. However, trendline resistance from the October highs continues to hold back progress. A close above 8500 would be needed to revive the bullish view. This might then see the price head back over time to the 8900 level. Sellers will need a close below 8340 to suggest that trendline support has been broken. Source: ProRealTime