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These five FTSE 100 dividend shares could be some of the best to watch next month. They are currently the highest yielding on the index. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares FTSE 100 Dividend Stock Dividend yield Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London The FTSE 100 continues to underperform comparable international indices, sliding by 0.6% year-to-date to 7,673 points. While investors in some of the high yielding dividend stocks on the index have of course benefitted from company payouts, improving the life of the London markets has been a central theme of 2024. In today’s budget, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has — among many measures — introduced the ‘British ISA,’ which will allow UK-based investors an additional £5,000 allowance on top of the current £20,000, which can only be invested specifically in ‘UK companies.’ Quite how this might work, and how long it might be until the account is widely available, will be common questions over the next few days. But the key takeaway is that the government is trying to spur internal investment, in an attempt to stem UK delistings, the IPO drought, and continued private equity bids for ‘undervalued’ businesses listed in London. On the macroeconomic front, the base rate remains at 5.25%, while CPI inflation stands at 4%, double the official target. While inflation is now expected to hit 2% within the next few months, the Bank of England has warned it will then resurge due to moving comparators with energy bills. While rates may start to fall later in the calendar year, Governor Andrew Bailey has previously warned he wishes to see sustained low inflation before beginning cuts. This all makes investing in FTSE 100 dividend stocks complex. In particular, the highest dividend yields can be hostage to economic policy — where individual investment cases and changing financial landscapes can create value traps or payout irregularities. Best FTSE 100 dividend stocks to watch These shares are the highest yielding on the index as of 1 March 2024. They may not be the best investments and the dividends and capital itself are not guaranteed. Vodafone Phoenix Group British American Tobacco Imperial Brands M & G Vodafone Vodafone's recent Q3 results saw total organic revenue grew by 4.7%, a significant improvement on the 1.8% growth of a year ago. Meanwhile, global services revenue rose by 8.8% while the B2B division grew by 5% year-over-year. The company remains one of the largest telecoms companies in Europe, and the current strategy may be delivering. For context, the all-important German sales rose by 0.3% in the quarter. However, the company is actually losing customers in the region, with the revenue growth driven by price increases. The key risk could remain the debt mountain, which remains multiples of Vodafone’s market capitalisation. However, the company has made several asset disposals to counter this risk — and is actively considering further sales of its Italian arm. Vodafone remains confident in previous guidance for future underlying earnings — and with a price to equity ratio of just 2 (despite this figure being affected by asset sales), it may be attractive to value investors. Dividend Yield: 10.94% Phoenix Group Phoenix Group's recent trading update saw the company deliver £1.5 billion of new business long-term cash generation in 2023, achieving its 2025 target much earlier than expected. For context, new business net fund inflows rose by circa 80% year-on-year to £7 billion, driven by improved performances at the Standard Life branded Pension & Savings and Retirement Solutions segments. CEO Andy Briggs remains ‘delighted that Phoenix Group has delivered another year of strong organic growth in 2023, with increased new business net fund flows supporting us… we have achieved our 2025 new business long-term cash target two years early, reflecting the focus and investment we have put into our growth strategy.’ Within pensions and savings, Phoenix’s workplace business saw net fund flows nearly double year-over-year to circa £4.5 billion. According to Briggs, this included ‘the transfer of one of the largest workplace schemes tendered in the UK market in recent years.’ Dividend Yield: 10.49% British American Tobacco British American Tobacco full-year results saw the FTSE 100 dividend company’s revenue fall by 1.3% at constant currency rates, though rise by 3.1% on an organic basis at constant rates. This was driven by ‘new categories’ growth with revenue from non-combustibles now worth 16.5% of group revenue. CEO Tadeu Marroco enthuses that ‘2023 was another year of resilient financial performance and delivery in line with our guidance, underpinned by our global footprint and multi-category strategy, despite a challenging macro-environment. New Categories delivered continued volume-led revenue growth and increased profitability.’ However, the FTSE 100 tobacco company will have to pivot fast, having written off £27.3 billion of its US brand portfolio after acknowledging they have ‘no long-term future.’ Compounding the weak combustibles growth, the UK recently announced a ban on disposable vapes which could hit BATS’ long-term ambitions in non-combustible categories — and is also imposing a specific vaping tax as well. This could hit margins if similar legislation is adopted more broadly. Positively, the titan and competitor Philip Morris International have finally agreed an eight-year long resolution to long running patent disputes on their cigarette alternatives technology. Dividend Yield: 10.22% Imperial Brands Imperial Brands is the second FTSE 100 tobacco stock — and faces many of the same issues as BATS: regulatory clampdowns and changing consumer habits. However in recent results, the company saw adjusted operating profit grow in line with its five year plan, including 10 basis points aggregate market share growth in its top-five priority combustible tobacco markets. Further, next generation product net revenue rose by 26% — and increased by a whopping 40% in Europe. Accordingly, the dividend was hiked by 4% alongside a 10% increase in share buybacks, leaving investors with total FY24 returns of £2.4 billion. CEO Stefan Bomhard enthuses that ‘means we are well placed to deliver on our commitment to enhance returns to investors, with increases to both our dividend and buyback programme. Looking ahead, we expect the continuing benefits of our transformation to enable a further acceleration in our adjusted operating profit growth in the final two years of our five-year strategy.’ Dividend Yield: 8.81% M&G In September’s half-year results, M&G increased its interim dividend by 5% to 6.5p per share. For context, it saw positive net client inflows of £700 million — remaining positive into a third consecutive year. M&G also saw operating capital generation rise by 17% year-over-year to £505 million, driving adjusted operating profit 31% higher to £390 million. M&G plans to generate operating capital amounting to £2.5 billion by the end of 2024 and had achieved more than 50% of this three-year target, 18 months in. Moreover, its shareholder Solvency II Coverage ratio remains at the top end of the target range at 199%, with no defaults in the first half of the year. CEO Andrea Rossi enthused that the results ‘demonstrate the underlying strength of our business model, the resilience of our balance sheet… we have made progress against all three pillars of the strategy that we launched in March.’ Full-year results will be released on 21 March 2024. Dividend Yield: 8.71% How to invest or trade in FTSE 100 shares with us Learn more about FTSE 100 shares Open an account with us or practise on a demo Select your opportunity Choose your position size and manage your risk Place your deal and monitor your trade You can either invest in shares directly or trade using spread betting or CFDs to benefit from leverage. Keep in mind, leverage means you can gain or lose money faster than expected. Because your position size is far greater than your deposit, you could lose more money than you put in. Be aware also that past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Learn more about the differences between trading and investing here. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Greggs, ITV, Ocado, Greencoat UK Wind and Direct Line could be the best FSTE 250 shares to watch next month. These shares have been selected for recent market news. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Dividend FTSE 100 United Kingdom Ocado Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London The FTSE 250 is now essentially flat, both over the past year and year-to-date, at 19,592 points. Unlike its older brother — the FTSE 100, whose constituents derive the majority of their income from overseas — the FTSE 250 is far more domestically focused. And the economic trajectory of the UK remains perhaps as uncertain as it looked throughout 2023. CPI inflation remains at 4% and is expected to fall to 2% relatively soon — though analysts then expect the crucial measure to start rising thereafter. With the base rate at 5.25%, investors are looking to rate cuts in 2024. However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has previously noted that ‘we need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates.’ This implies rate cuts may come later than the market currently expects — though central banks do pivot as evidence changes. With an election likely coming within the next few months after the budget which saw another, potentially unaffordable long-term, two percentage points cut from National Insurance, the winds of political and economic change continue to blow for the best FTSE 250 shares. Best FTSE 250 shares to watch These shares have been selected for recent market news. Greggs ITV Ocado Greencoat UK Wind Direct Line Greggs Greggs has once again impressed the market — full-year results saw the baker’s profit before tax rise by 27% year-over-year to £188.3 million — with a year-end cash position of £195.3 million. Accordingly, the FTSE 250 operator is paying a 40p per share special dividend on top of the ordinary 46p special dividend. The company opened a record 220 new shops in 2023, a net increase of 145 to 2,473 locations. And looking forward, it expects to open between 140 and 160 net shops in 2024, with a target to have more than 3,000 Greggs locations open by 2026. With inflationary pressures ‘reducing,’ the company also saw total sales rise by 19.6% year-over-year to £1.8 billion. CEO Roisin Currie enthused that ‘we are very much on track to deliver our bold five-year growth plan to double sales by 2026 and to have significantly more than 3,000 shops in the UK over the longer term.’ ITV ITV shares have jumped a couple of times recently. To start with, it announced that it has sold its stake in BritBox to BBC Studies for £255 million — with the £235 million net of loan repayments and tax to be used to fund share buybacks. Then the media company delivered mixed full-year results; 2023 revenue fell by 2% to £4.3 billion as advertising revenue dipped by 8% to £1.6 billion. Accordingly, pre-tax profits crashed by 41% to just £396 million — with the ‘challenging advertising market’ blamed for the financial adversity. However, production arm ITV Studios saw revenue rise by 4% to a record £2.2 billion — while adjusted EBITDA increased by 10% to £286 million. And having disposed of BritBox, investors were also cheered by growth in ITVX. And the company is also delivering on its cost cutting promises. It had originally planned to deliver £150 million of savings by 2026 and hit £130 million by the end of 2023. At the end of this calendar year, ITV expects to have generated annualised gross savings of al least £50 million per annum. Ocado Ocado also enjoyed some mixed results; adjusted earnings came in at £51.6 million, up from a £74.1 million loss in 2022. Importantly, this was driven by a maiden £15.4 million underlying profit from Ocado’s Technology Solutions segment — where the investment in robot-operated warehousing is finally delivering. Indeed, CEO Tim Steiner noted that opening these customer fulfilment centres were key to cost efficiencies. The Joint Venture with Marks & Spencer — which is now subject to some legal issues — returned to positive adjusted EBITDA of £10.4 million. However, the FTSE 250 company still generated a loss before tax of £393.6 million — while a £100 million improvement, this includes the £187 million settlement received from Sweden’s AutoStore. While Steiner argues, perhaps fairly, that the business has made ‘tangible steps forward,’ there remains some way to go to group profitability. Greencoat UK Wind Greencoat UK Wind has delivered strong results; increasing its dividend to 10p per share against a target of 8.76p, and informing investors it is now confident it will pay the same dividend in 2024. As one of the UK’s largest windfarm operators — it generated 1.5% of total UK demand last year — the trust saw total shareholder return hit 5.4%. On the other hand, net asset value fell by 3p per share to 164.1p, in common with many renewable energy trusts. But cash generate hit £405 million — and the dividend is covered more than two times over. Chair Lucinda Riches enthuses that ‘with our continuing strong cash flow and dividend cover, we can confidently target a dividend of 10p per share with respect to 2024, extending our track record of attractive dividends and returns. We are now delivering net returns to investors of 10% on NAV, and we remain confident in our ability to continue to meet our objectives of dividend growth in line with RPI and capital preservation in real terms.’ The company invested £821 million into windfarms in the year, increasing its net generating capacity by 397MW and taking the gross value of its portfolio to some £6.2 billion. Direct Line Direct Line shares recently surged after reports that Belgium-based insurer Ageas has made a bid for the FTSE 250 company. While management has rejected the advance, it is the latest in a line of potentially undervalued UK companies which have received offers in the recent past — including Hotel Chocolat and Currys. Indeed, Ageas is potentially considering a follow-up bid worth some £3.1 billion. For context, Direct Line has suffered through several profit warnings and a CEO exit in 2023. But recent quarterly results may demonstrate an improvement in the business, with motor insurance growing by some 115%. And the company is shortly set to welcome ex-Aviva stalwart Adam Winslow as CEO — though if the takeover occurs, this may be a moot appointment before long. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The AUD/USD pair soared to an 11-week peak, buoyed by positive economic indicators from Japan and the US. Upcoming US inflation data and the NAB Business Confidence survey are set to influence future market directions. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares AUD/USD United States dollar Australian dollar Inflation Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 11 March 2024 07:26 Last week witnessed the Australian dollar against the US dollar marking its most significant ascent in over eleven weeks, finishing 1.52% higher at .6625. This upward trajectory was fueled by the Australian dollar capitalising on the momentum of the surging Japanese Yen. The impetus came from robust Japanese wage data, which bolstered investor confidence in the Bank of Japan potentially concluding its Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) during its 19 of March meeting. Additional support for the AUD/USD pair was provided by the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. The report indicated a moderating labor market, evidenced by revised lower job gains for the preceding two months and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.9% from 3.7%. These developments lent credibility to the market's anticipation of three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024, aligning with the Federal Reserve's own forecasts. Looking ahead, the forthcoming US inflation report on Tuesday night holds critical importance for the future direction of currency pairs. Meanwhile, domestic focus will shift to the upcoming release of the NAB Business Confidence survey, which promises to provide fresh insights into the business sentiment within Australia. What is expected from NAB Business Confidence Index (Tuesday, 12 March at 11.30am) In January, the NAB Business Confidence index increased to +1, back in positive territory after rebounding from -8 in November to 0 in December. Business Confidence remains subdued but is expected to rise marginally in the coming months as the focus shifts towards RBA rate cuts during the second half of 2024, and as inflationary cost pressures continue to ease. NAB Business Confidence Survey chart Source: TradingEconomics AUD/USD technical analysis Following last week's rally, the AUD/USD, as viewed on the weekly chart below, appears to have gained the upper hand for now, with room to push towards downtrend resistance at .6800c However, it is important to note that in the bigger picture, last week's rally appears to be part of an ongoing choppy correction from the October 2022 .6170 low, which does warn of further choppy price action ahead. Particularly around the middle of the range, which is where the AUD/USD is currently trading. AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD daily technical analysis On the daily chart below, the AUD/USD was able to show a clean pair of heels to the resistance provided by the 200-day moving average at .6560, and that now becomes near-term support. Taking some of the shine off last week's rally after its reversal from Friday night's .6667 high, the AUD/USD starts the week trading in congestion .6625 area. This is a level that the AUD/USD needs to clear if it is to challenge weekly resistance at .6800c. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 11 March 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

A mixed February jobs report and Nvidia's sell-off have US equity markets on edge before the CPI announcement. With the Fed's rate decisions in the balance, all eyes are on the upcoming data. Source: Bloomberg Indices Consumer price index S&P 500 United States Stock market Federal Reserve Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 11 March 2024 05:07 US equity markets took a hit last week, sliding from record highs in the wake of a mixed jobs report. Investors in Nvidia, seeing a 5.55% drop, raced to sell off their shares before the upcoming U.S. CPI report. The details of the non-Farm payrolls report showed that the US economy added 275k jobs in February, beating forecasts for 200k. However, the upside surprise to the headline number was more than offset by a downward revision in job gains over the prior two months of 167k, and a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.9% from 3.7% prior. Average hourly earnings slowed to 0.1% MoM, which saw the annual rate ease to 4.3% YoY from 4.5%. The jobs report revealed sufficient signs of moderation to maintain, for the time being, the anticipation of three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, aligning with the Fed's projections. However, the continuation of these projections into the Fed's March summary of economic forecasts hinges largely on Tuesday's CPI report. What is expected from US CPI (Tuesday, 12 March at 11.30pm) The expectation is for headline CPI to rise by 0.4% MoM in February, which would see the annual rate remain stable at 3.1%. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM, which would see the annual rate cool to 3.7%. If the core CPI number is much hotter than outlined above because the January New Year price rise effects don’t fall out as expected, there is a chance that three dots could become two dots in the Feds March SEP. This outcome would likely be poorly received by equity markets. Core CPI chart Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis Last week, a "loss of momentum" candle formed in the Nasdaq cash and the S&P 500 cash. While this occurrence in isolation certainly doesn't guarantee a pullback, we note that it occurred at new highs, on bearish divergence, and in the area of a possible Wave V high within our preferred Elliott Wave Framework. A combination that piques our interest. From here, if the S&P 500 cash were to see a sustained break of uptrend support at 5090ish, and then below recent lows at 5060/40ish, it would warn that a deeper pullback initially towards 4900 is underway. Until then, the path of least resistance will remain higher. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis Last week, a "loss of momentum" candle formed in the Nasdaq cash and S&P 500 cash. While this occurrence in isolation certainly doesn't guarantee a pullback, we note that it occurred at new highs, on bearish divergence, and in the area of a possible Wave V high within our preferred Elliott Wave framework. A combination that piques our interest. From here, if the Nasdaq cash were to see a sustained break of uptrend support and recent lows at 17,800/750ish, it would warn that a deeper pullback initially towards 17,000 is underway. Until then, the path of least resistance will remain higher. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 11 March 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Wall Street ended last week in the red, with some unwinding in tech stocks on Friday while the VIX touched its highest level in two weeks. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares United States Consumer price index Wall Street United States Consumer Price Index Written by: Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore Publication date: Monday 11 March 2024 08:12 Market Recap Wall Street ended last week in the red, with some unwinding in tech stocks on Friday while the VIX touched its highest level in two weeks. The highlight was the US February job report, which saw cooling US labour conditions as the main takeaway. The US unemployment rate rose to its highest since January 2022 at 3.9% (versus 3.7% consensus), while wages grew at the slowest rate in two years at 0.1% month-on-month. Job additions did come in above expectations (275,000 versus 200,000 consensus), but the strength was stifled by downward revisions in previous readings. The figures could be what the Federal Reserve (Fed) hopes to see, with a softer labour market supporting an earlier timeline for rate cuts, but market participants seem to take the opportunity for some profit-taking instead. Treasury yields were broadly lower, paving the way for the US dollar to weaken further. Gold prices took comfort in that, extending its gains for the eighth straight trading day to hang around the US$2,186 level. Look-ahead: US CPI Ahead, the new week may kick off on a more cautious tone as markets look towards the US consumer price index (CPI) release on Tuesday. Given the hotter-than-expected inflation data in January, traders will be closely watching this month’s CPI to be convinced that previous data is just a one-off. Expectations are for headline inflation to remain steady at 3.1%, while the core aspect may ease to 3.7% from previous 3.9%. If it holds true, this will be the lowest year-on-year core reading since April 2021, which may further bolster earlier rate cut bets. What to watch: Nasdaq 100 The Nasdaq 100 index is back to flirt with its 18,000 level, leaving a near-term upward trendline on watch for some immediate defending from buyers. Failure for the trendline support to hold may pave the way for the index to retrace further to the 17,390 level, where a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level stands. For now, its daily relative strength index (RSI) has also edged back to the mid-point level of 50, which buyers have successfully defended since November 2023. Any dip below the mid-point this week could bring about a near-term downward bias, suggesting further cooling in the recent risk rally. Source: IG charts IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer. Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

The Asian session saw a divergence between rallying Chinese markets, which continue their recovery from the lows of the year so far, and the rest of the region which came under fresh selling pressure. The Nikkei 225 in particular dropped sharply as the yen strengthened following news that Japan's economy did not contract in Q4, following GDP revisions that indicated growth of 0.1% instead of the previous 0.1% contraction. This bolsters the case for the Bank of Japan to shift rates at its meeting next week, with a 53% chance of a move priced in. Today sees a quiet start to the week, but tomorrow's US CPI reading will be the main event to watch. Friday saw market leader Nvidia suffer a sharp reversal, coming after huge gains since 1 January, and a stronger reading on inflation might yet tip markets into at least a short-term pullback.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week ESTABLISHED 1974313,000+ CLIENTS WORLDWIDE17,000+ MARKETS Week commencing 11 March Chris Beauchamp's insight US consumer price index (CPI) data dominates the week, as investors await the latest set of price figures for the US economy and assess its impact on the Federal Reserve bank's (Fed) moves in coming meetings. UK employment data is also worth watching, along with full-year figures from housebuilder Persimmon. Please note: US Daylight Savings Time begins 10 March, so all US data is one hour earlier for UK traders. Economic reports Weekly view Monday None Tuesday 12.30am – Australia NAB business confidence (February): index forecast to fall to -1 from 1. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 7am – UK employment data (January): unemployment rate to hold at 3.8% and average earnings expected to rise 5.8% for the three months to January, in line with December. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 12.30pm – US CPI (February): prices expected to rise 0.3% month on month (MoM) and 3.1% year-over-year (YoY), from 0.4% and 3.1% respectively. Core CPI forecast to rise 0.4% MoM and 3.9% YoY, compared to 0.3% and 3.7%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Wednesday 7am – UK GDP (January): growth expected to be 0% in January, compared to 0.1% in December. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 2.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 8 March): Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Thursday 12.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 9 March), PPI, retail sales (February): claims …. while producer price index (PPI) expected to rise 0.3% MoM, in line with January. Retail sales to rebound 0.3% in February from January’s 0.8% fall. Markets to watch: USD crosses Friday 12.30pm – US Empire State manufacturing index (March): index forecast to rise to 10 from -2.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses 2pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (March, preliminary): index to rise to 78 from 76.9. Markets to watch: US crosses Company announcements Monday 11 March Tuesday 12 March Wednesday 13 March Thursday 14 March Friday 15 March Full-year earnings Persimmon, Domino's Pizza Metro Bank, Balfour Beatty, Volkswagen Savills, Vistry Half/ Quarterly earnings Oracle Adobe Trading update* Assoc. British Foods AO World Moonpig Berkeley Group Dividends FTSE 100: NatWest, Segro, Anglo American, Haleon, Entain FTSE 250: Dunelm, Abrdn, Tritax Big Box, Apax Global, Lancashire Holdings Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 11 March Tuesday 12 March Wednesday 13 March Thursday 14 March Friday 15 March Monday 18 March FTSE 100 7.15 Australia 200 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.1 Wall Street 2.6 9.6 US 500 0.19 0.21 1.31 0.17 0.07 0.30 Nasdaq 0.35 2.36 3.28 Netherlands 25 EU Stocks 50 0.8 China H-Shares 1.0 Singapore Blue Chip Hong Kong HS50 2.2 9.2 South Africa 40 196.8 17 71 Italy 40 36.9 Japan 225 0.5

The US dollar is facing its steepest weekly decline in nearly three months, with a 1% fall ahead of today's key U.S. jobs report. Unless the data is exceptionally strong, it is unlikely to alter expectations for upcoming Fed rate cuts, as Jerome Powell has signaled a willingness to reduce rates if inflation keeps cooling despite low unemployment. Economists forecast a more moderate 200,000 nonfarm payroll gain in February after January's spike, which analysts attribute to seasonal factors. The dollar's recent weakness reflects easing expectations, boosting currencies like the Australian dollar and euro to multi-month highs against the greenback. US stocks also recovered on Thursday, and the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high. Meanwhile, Japan appears poised for tighter monetary policy. Officials have struck a hawkish tone, citing progress toward the 2% inflation target ahead of the March policy meeting. Substantial private sector wage hikes also support a potential rate increase, driving a recent rally in the yen and Japanese banking stocks.

Q4 earnings season is nearly done, and we look at the main trends arising from the reporting period for US stocks. Source: Bloomberg Indices Average S&P 500 Price–earnings ratio Valuation Economic growth Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 08 March 2024 04:10 As the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023 earnings season drew to a close, S&P 500 companies delivered a performance that was satisfactory overall but fell short of historical averages in several key metrics. While profit growth remained positive, both the proportion of companies beating estimates and the magnitude of positive surprises lagged behind recent trends. Slight drop in earnings beats Overall, 73% of S&P 500 companies reported actual earnings per share (EPS) above analysts' mean estimates for Q4 2023. This percentage trails the 5-year average of 77% and the 10-year average of 74% for companies beating projections. Tech stocks did well, while real estate struggled At the sector level, there was a wide dispersion in the percentage of companies surpassing earnings expectations. The Information Technology sector led the way, with an impressive 88% of companies reporting positive EPS surprises. On the opposite end, only 55% of companies in the Real Estate sector topped EPS forecasts - the lowest across all sectors. Size of earning & revenue surprises well below historical average Not only were there fewer EPS beats, but the aggregate earnings surprise was also subdued compared to historical norms. In aggregate, S&P 500 companies reported earnings 4.1% above estimates - below the 5-year average of 8.5% and the 10-year average of 6.7%. The revenue side of the equation showed a similar trend, with fewer companies beating top-line estimates and a muted surprise percentage compared to prior periods. 64% of S&P 500 companies reported actual revenues above estimates, short of the 5-year average of 68% (though in line with the 10-year average). Collectively, companies reported revenues just 1.2% above expectations - lagging both the 5-year average of 2.0% and the 10-year average of 1.3% Investors reward earnings surprises & forgive earnings misses Despite the somewhat muted results, companies that managed to exceed earnings estimates were rewarded by investors more generously than historical averages would suggest. Companies reporting positive EPS surprises saw their stock prices rise 1.4% on average surrounding the earnings release window. This exceeds the 5-year average price increase of 1.0% for companies beating bottom-line estimates. Conversely, negative earnings misses were punished less severely than usual, with those companies averaging a 1.0% stock price decline compared to the 5-year average of 2.3% for EPS misses. Winners & Losers While most sectors contributed positively to the overall earnings growth number, there were a few clear outperformers and underperformers in Q4, as seen in the chart below: Source: FactSet Big names like Ford, Marriott, Amazon, Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy drove large positive surprises in consumer, energy and industrials. Healthcare was boosted by companies like Illumina, Moderna and Pfizer. The financial sector stood out as a weak spot, with names like Citigroup, Truist and Comerica missing estimates due to impacts from FDIC assessments. This sector reported the largest aggregate negative earnings surprise. Pace of profit growth slows Despite the below-average metrics, S&P 500 earnings still grew year-over-year (YoY) for the second consecutive quarter. The blended earnings growth rate for Q4 2023 currently stands at 4.0%. However, this growth rate is noticeably slower than prior quarters. Analysts expect the deceleration to continue in Q1 2024 with projected earnings growth of just 3.6%, before potentially re-accelerating to 9.2% in Q2 2024 and 11.0% for full-year 2024. Valuations still higher than average The somewhat tepid earnings performance comes against the backdrop of relatively elevated stock valuations for the S&P 500. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio currently stands at 20.4 - well above both the 5-year average of 19.0 and the 10-year average of 17.7. This lofty valuation implies that investors remain optimistic about future earnings growth materialising. Outlook for Q1 2024 As companies enter the Q1 2024 reporting period, they will need to clear a higher profitability bar to sustain current stock prices and valuations. While the Q4 earnings season kept the profit growth streak alive, the path ahead appears more challenging amid economic uncertainties. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Bitcoin (BTC) Posts a New All-Time High Before Prices Turn Sharply Lower Mar 6, 2024 12:00 AM +02:00 | Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist BITCOIN (BTC) PRICES, CHARTS, AND ANALYSIS: Bitcoin prints a new ATH then slumps by $5k Crypto-relates stocks suffer reversals of differing degrees. The Next Bitcoin Halving Event – What Does it Mean? Bitcoin tagged a fresh all-time high mid-afternoon before turning sharply lower as sellers sent the market spiraling lower. The tagging of the ATH saw a wave of sellers appear with market commentary suggesting that selling by recent leveraged long positions accelerated the move lower. Currently, Bitcoin is within yesterday’s trading range, but a break and open below yesterday’s low at $62.3k may see the market sell off further. On the positive side, demand from Bitcoin ETF providers remains strong, underpinning BTC, while the recent bullish pennant pattern remains intact and suggests higher prices. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART What is your view on the cryptocurrency space – bullish or bearish?

Asia is extending the broad rally in global stocks and risk assets after Fed chairman Jerome Powell kept the door open to interest rate cuts later this year, and U.S. bond yields drifted lower. Powell said the Fed still expects to cut rates later this year, even though continued progress on inflation "is not assured." However, Japan's Nikkei fell after USDJPY dropped towards Y148, as momentum builds that a move from the Bank of Japan to end negative interest rates could come as soon as this month, with Reuters pricing suggesting a 45% chance of a rate hike in March. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting today is expected to be more divided and hesitant about committing to monetary easing. While the ECB is universally expected to keep its policy rate at a record 4%, policymakers are likely to reiterate the need for more evidence that inflation is under control and that ongoing wage increases will not give it another boost. The ECB President Christine Lagarde's message will be crucial, as new economic projections are likely to point to lower economic growth and inflation this year. Investors have penciled in three or probably four rate cuts by the end of the year. Interest rate futures are almost fully priced in for a first rate cut from the ECB in June, with a total easing of 88 basis points expected for all of 2024, down from the 150 points expected in January.

It’s an ongoing bullish technical overview despite recent struggles, with retail traders opting to retain a majority sell bias while CoT speculators reduce their majority buy sentiment. Source: Bloomberg Indices Federal Reserve Futures contract Inflation Price Nasdaq Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Thursday 07 March 2024 07:45 Tech outperforms, cautious Fed member speak, and mixed US data Nearly all sectors finished yesterday's session in the green, with tech in second place, though the two in the red were consumer discretionary and communication, albeit with limited losses. The performance for the tech-heavy index ultimately surpassed both the Dow 30 and the S&P 500 for the session, yet the gains failed to offset the losses suffered on Tuesday, and futures are struggling as of this morning. There was plenty of attention on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chairman Powell, who stated that rates are "likely at their peak for this tightening cycle", though "the economic outlook is uncertain" and reaching their 2% "inflation objective is not assured". He cautioned against cutting too soon and failed to provide an exact timeline on rate cuts that will "likely be appropriate... at some point this year". After that, Daly emphasized that they are "focused and resolute on getting inflation down", and Kashkari mentioned the possibility of two or even just one rate cut this year. As for Treasury yields, they finished the session lower on the further end of the curve, though unchanged in real terms, and market pricing (CME's FedWatch) remained unchanged as the majority anticipate a hold-hold-cut scenario for the March-May-June meetings. Economic data out of the US was mixed, with ADP's non-farm estimate for the month of February slightly missing expectations at 140K (vs. 150K estimates), job openings for January out of JOLTS falling to 8.86 million, not far off forecasts, and wholesale inventories for the same month dropping by 0.3%. The weekly claims, Challenger's job cuts, and unit labor costs are among the data releasing later today before tomorrow's market-moving Non-Farm Payrolls. Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels Price spent most of yesterday’s session above its previous 1st Resistance, easily giving conformist buy-breakouts, the edge before the moves as of writing this morning that took it back beneath the key level. Its technical overview remains a ‘bull average’ in both weekly and daily time frames and means added caution via ‘significant reversal’ for conformists buying off dips when price reaches the 1st (or even 2nd) Support levels. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Nasdaq The higher close took sentiment amongst retail traders closer to heavy sell territory, rising from 58% yesterday to 64% as of this morning. Any pullback in price would make them beneficiaries, given they generally shorted into price gains. CoT speculators have been majority buy throughout this period, but there’s no denying the recent unwind, taking the long bias amongst them to a slight buy 54% on an increase in short positions, and a simultaneous drop in longs. Another drop in percentage terms like that and they’ll shift to slight sell. Source: IG Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Bitcoin skyrockets to record heights. Unpack the cryptocurrency's monumental surge and its potential to sustain the boom or face a bust. Economic bubble Ethereum IG Analyst Publication date: Tuesday 05 March 2024 07:00 Article written by Juliette Saly (ausbiz) Bitcoin's boom In this week’s edition of IG Macro Intelligence, we take a look at the recent surge in bitcoin, and whether it’s set for a BOOM or a BUST. Bitcoin is back The world's largest cryptocurrency has reached an all-time high, propelled by strong demand for Bitcoin ETFs. The token has climbed above US$69,000 for the first time. In Australian dollar terms, bitcoin has also hit a record, exceeding AUD$100,000. Bitcoin daily chart Source: IG Bitcoin's breakthrough in Aussie dollars Kraken MD Jonathan Miller told ausbiz, the record in Aussie dollar terms is “a truly historic moment for the asset and the crypto industry as a whole.” Driving the momentum is ongoing bullishness for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in January. These ETFs now own 4% of all bitcoins, and have almost $50 billion in assets according to Bernstein data. The demand for bitcoin has also stoked interest in smaller coins like ether and dogecoin, sending the value of the crypto market above US$2 trillion for the first time in two years. CoinGecko estimates bitcoin's total market capitalisation at US$1.3 trillion, more than tripling its US$320 billion market cap at the end of 2022, known as the "Crypto Winter." Global crypto market cap chart Source: Bloomberg, CoinMarketCap The FOMO fever that fuels the crypto surge The rally is not solely driven by demand for Bitcoin ETFs. The forthcoming halving, which curtails the growth of bitcoin's supply, contributes to the optimistic sentiment. Additionally, speculation that the US Securities regulator might green-light more spot-ETFs, such as for Ethereum, is fuelling the rally. Ethereum has surged over 50% year-to-date, trading above the crucial resistance level of US$3,500. It remains about US$1,000 below its all-time high of US$4,721 reached in November 2021. Investor fear of missing out (FOMO) has also escalated demand, subsequently inflating prices for crypto assets. The "Crypto Fear and Greed Index," which gauges market sentiment based on the trading positions of bitcoin and other significant cryptocurrencies, is currently at 90. A score between 75 to 100 indicates "Extreme Greed." Ether daily chart Source: IG Crypto fear and greed index Source: Cointree Wall Street's warning: echoes of the dot-com bubble in bitcoin's surge Analysts are split on whether bitcoin's recent rally signals sustained momentum or a looming bubble. JP Morgan's Marko Kolanovic views the surge past US$60,000 and the dramatic equity rally as signs of market froth. Kolanovic is among several Wall Street analysts warning that the rapid ascent resembles the dot-com bubble or the market crash in late 2021 following post-pandemic euphoria. Conversely, some analysts argue that this rally is different due to institutional interest spurred by the approval of spot-ETFs and the anticipated demand for bitcoin preceding April's halving. Historically, bitcoin's value has spiked following each halving event, with some predictions suggesting bitcoin could reach US$80,000 by August. Julius Baer's digital assets analyst, Manuel Villegas, is optimistic, noting the halving-induced shortage will spike demand. “All in all, we see a very sound fundamental backdrop for bitcoin and believe that prices are well supported around current levels with further upside potential,” he wrote. Long-term bitcoin advocate, Ark's Cathie Wood, asserts that bitcoin is steadily replacing gold. As of March 2024, bitcoin has outperformed traditional safe-haven assets like gold, marking a significant milestone in its journey. Bitcoin vs gold's performance 2021 - 2024 Source: Bloomberg This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The start of China's annual National People's Congress saw a muted response, with the Hang Seng index falling over 2% after Beijing set a modest 5% growth target for 2024 without any major fiscal stimulus measures. However, mainland Chinese shares rose amid suspected state-backed buying of exchange-traded funds tracking the CSI 300 index. Global markets are bracing for an eventful week with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, the US jobs report, the ECB's policy decision, and the UK budget. Investors are continue to search for cues on the Fed's future rate hike path, with the Atlanta Fed president suggesting no pressure to ease policy amid sticky inflation risks.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to take another significant step in normalizing its monetary policy stance at its upcoming March 7th meeting. Source: Bloomberg European Central Bank Inflation Central bank Macroeconomics Monetary policy Wage Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 04 March 2024 13:49 March Meeting to Mark Shift Towards Neutral Policy While recent economic data has been relatively resilient, concerns about growth and the inflation outlook persist, leaving the timing and pace of potential rate cuts still uncertain. At next week's gathering, the European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to move from its current restrictive policy stance towards a more neutral position. The new staff projections are anticipated to revise down growth forecasts for 2024 but leave the 2025 and 2026 outlooks broadly unchanged. Critically, inflation for 2025 is projected to be revised down to the 2% target. Rate Cut Timing Hinges on Wage and Inflation Developments While the new projections may not definitively rule out rate cuts at a particular meeting, market consensus remains that the first 25 basis point reduction will occur at the June meeting rather than April. Recent economic data has not been judged weak enough yet to bring forward easier policy. The ECB has repeatedly stated it wants to ensure inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target over the medium term before cutting rates. As such, the path of wage growth will be closely monitored given its pivotal role in the inflation outlook. Market Repricing but Muted Reaction Expected Throughout February, markets repriced policy easing expectations significantly. They now anticipate around 87 basis points (bps) of ECB rate cuts for 2024, with 82bps coming in the second half of the year after an initial 25bps move in June. This repricing brings market expectations more in line with the ECB's own outlook. Despite the recent adjustment in rate forecasts, a muted market reaction is anticipated following next week's meeting, as current pricing is seen as relatively well-aligned with ECB communications. Better macro data helps to calm nerves Recent macro data has afforded the ECB some breathing room ahead of kicking off rate cuts. While economic growth is stagnating, the region is not facing an outright contraction. Moreover, inflation expectations remain anchored and employment increased during Q4 2023. The ECB will be weighing these resilient factors against persistent underlying inflationary pressures stemming from the tight labour market and the uncertainty around how wage gains will ultimately pass through to consumer prices. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Technicals remain bullish even as it avoids record highs, while CoT speculators are back to raising their majority buy bias. Source: Bloomberg Indices Federal Reserve Inflation Monetary policy Central bank Purchasing Managers' Index Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Monday 04 March 2024 07:28 Manufacturing data diverges, cautious Fed members, and the monetary policy report Quite a bit to digest late last week where manufacturing data painted a conflicting picture, with ISM’s (Institute for Supply Management) PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) still in contracting territory and worsening to 47.8 from 49.1, even as S&P Global’s was expansionary and improved to 52.2. Federal Reserve (Fed) members spoke remained cautious, Daly on cutting rates quickly risking inflation getting stuck, Bostic once more on easing likely appropriate this summer, Kugler “cautiously optimistic” of ongoing progress regarding “disinflation without significant deterioration of the labor market”, Williams again expecting rate cuts later this year, and Mester that the January PCE prints won’t “really change my view” regarding getting to the central bank’s inflation target but shows “there is a little more work for the Fed to do here”. There was also the release of the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report, in it citing the banking system that “remains sound and resilient” overall but that “a few areas of risk warrant continued monitoring”. Week ahead: Services PMIs, NFP, and the Fed’s Powell testifies As for the week ahead, it’s a light start out of the US and picks up tomorrow with services PMIs where it’s been a story of expansionary readings be it out of S&P Global or healthier out of ISM, and noting not just the sector but its pricing component that experienced a surge last time around to 64 from 56.7 before that. If we’re still talking about the data, expect the attention to shift towards the US labor market with ADP’s non-farm estimate and job openings out of JOLTS on Wednesday, Challenger’s job cuts and the weekly claims on Thursday, and leading up to the market-impacting Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. Expectations are we’ll see growth of around 190K for the month of February, and for the unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%, with added focus on any weakness under the hood after what has been divergence between the establishment and household surveys. Plenty of central bank members speaking, but expect the attention to be on Chairman Powell’s testimony on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee, and if there’s anything to add when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee the day after. On the political front, the government shutdown has been avoided, but the deadlines pushed out to just March 8 and 22 means nowhere near out of the woods even as congressional negotiators unveil a bill for funding the remainder of the fiscal year. There’s also ‘Super Tuesday’ and the State of the Union Address. Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels Lacking a record high meant there wasn't as much focus on this index compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. On the weekly time frame, there was a lack of a play for both conformists and contrarians, as the intraweek lows were within its previous weekly 1st Support. As for the daily late last week, same story on Thursday. It needed Friday's gains to offer little for both conformist buy-breakouts and contrarian sell-after-reversals off the daily 1st Resistance, where it also has a 'bull average' technical overview matching the weekly, but where action within its channel can tilt the narrative more easily in the shorter term. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow CoT speculators are heavy buy and up a notch to 70% (longs +542 lots, shorts -838), yet to reverse the pullback a couple weeks ago, and in all still cautious about upping their long bias significantly further at this stage. IG clients continue to look for a chance to unwind what was extreme sell bias amongst them at the start of last week, the Dow's pullback providing partial relief. Source: IG Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of the start of this week for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the start of last week. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week ESTABLISHED 1974313,000+ CLIENTS WORLDWIDE17,000+ MARKETS Week commencing 4 March Chris Beauchamp's insight The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US non-farm payrolls are the major event of the week, with the ECB’s rate decision likely to set the tone for eurozone assets for the rest of the month. Insurers are the main UK corporate news this week, while US earnings season continues to wind down, though retailers Target, Costco and Gap report figures. Economic reports Weekly view Monday None Tuesday 1.45am – China Caixin services PMI (February): previous reading 52.7. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 3pm – US ISM services PMI (February): index expected to fall to 53.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses Wednesday 12.30am – Australia GDP (Q4): QoQ rate expected to be 0.2%, YoY to slip to 1.5%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 9.30am – UK construction PMI (February): previous reading 48.8. Markets to watch: GBP Crosses 12.30pm – UK Spring Budget. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 1.15pm – US ADP employment report (February): previous reading 107K. Markets to watch: USD crosses 2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to remain at 5%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (February): expected to fall to 56. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 1 March): stockpiles rose by 4.2 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI 5pm – FOMC member Daly speaks. Markets to watch: USD crosses Thursday 3am – China trade data (January & February): exports rose 2.3% in December. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates expected to remain at 4.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 2 March): claims to rise to 217K. Markets to watch: USD crosse Friday 1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (February): payrolls expected to slip to 188K from 353K. Unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings forecast to rise 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Company announcements Monday 4 March Tuesday 5 March Wednesday 6 March Thursday 7 March Friday 8 March Full-year earnings Clarkson Fresnillo, Travis Perkins, Reach, Greggs, Foxtons Legal & General, Rathbones, Tullow Oil Admiral, Aviva, Entain, Rentokil, ITV, PageGroup Just Group Half/ Quarterly earnings Ashtead, Ferguson, Target Trading update* Assoc. British Foods DS Smith Kier, Costco, Broadcom, Gap Dividends FTSE 100: Rio Tinto, HSBC, Standard Chartered FTSE 250: Safestore, Renishaw, PZ Cussons, Energean Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 4 March Tuesday 5 March Wednesday 6 March Thursday 7 March Friday 8 March Monday 11 March FTSE 100 29.33 Australia 200 4.8 3.9 30.9 0.4 3.4 0.3 Wall Street 14.7 6.6 12.3 US 500 0.12 0.38 0.76 0.36 0.03 0.17 Nasdaq 0.13 1.99 0.35 Netherlands 25 EU Stocks 50 China H-Shares Singapore Blue Chip Hong Kong HS50 3.8 56.5 3.8 2.2 South Africa 40 50.2 Italy 40 Japan 225

Gold price enjoys surge, while WTI crude price recovers $80 and silver price moves higher Gold has returned to its previous highs from December, while oil is back at levels last seen in late December. While silver has rebounded, it lags far behind gold. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 04 March 2024 11:44 Gold soars Gold prices took off on Friday, rallying to their highest level since late December. This puts the price squarely on a bullish footing, continuing the recovery from the lows of mid-February. A close above $2088.60, the high from late December, leaves the price on course to test the record intraday high from early December. A reversal back below $2035 would be needed to put this bullish outlook on pause. Source: ProRealTime WTI back at $80 The recovery from the December low continues, and now the price is testing $80 once more. A close above $81 would put the price back above the November and December high, and then open the way to further gains, towards $84. A reversal back below $76 is needed to negate tis near-term bullish view. Source: ProRealTime Silver rallies, but lags behind gold While gold soars, silver has managed only a modest rally. The consolidation pattern of the year so far continues; rallies towards $23.50 tend to peter out, while on the downside the buyers have defended $22. Notably last week’s low found support at a higher low, which could provide a foundation for a new push on above $23.50. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100 stalls as Nikkei 225, S&P 500 hit yet more record highs Outlook on FTSE 100, Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 ahead of Powell testimony and US labour data. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 04 March 2024 11:54 The Nikkei 225 made yet another record high above the 40,000 mark The Nikkei 225 has once more topped the psychological 40,000 mark, having already done so on Friday, boosted by tech/AI stocks like Tokyo Electron amid a shift towards tech nearshoring and foreign funds leaving Chinese stock markets for Japanese ones. However, risks such as China's economic fluctuations, potential yen strengthening, and changes in the Bank of Japan's policy could impact the index's upward trajectory as could the currently highly overbought levels of the index. A minor retracement lower may take the Nikkei 225 back towards its 23 February high at 39,638 below which lies the 1989 previous record high at 38,957. Source: ProRealTime FTSE 100 is finding it difficult to reach the 7,710 to 7,769 region The FTSE 100’s recovery from last week’s 7,596 low is finding it difficult to reach the early February high at 7,710. This level and the 23 February high at 7,717 need to be exceeded for the more significant 7,750 to 7,769 resistance area to be reached. It consists of the December-to-February highs. Minor support sits between Friday’s low and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,645 to 7,640. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 makes yet another record high The S&P 500 surged higher again towards the end of last week and came close to the 5,150 region, hitting yet another record high ahead of this week’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony and US labour data. Further up lies the 5,200 zone while support can be spotted around the 23 February high at 5,111. Below it lies the February-to-March tentative uptrend line at 5,088. Source: ProRealTime

The dollar could be tested later this week with the release of US jobs data, including the ADP employment change on Wednesday. Written by: Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London Publication date: Monday 04 March 2024 11:17 US private businesses are forecast to have hired 150,000 workers in February, after 107,000 job creations in January. Also on Wednesday, there will be JOLTs job openings. The number of job openings is thought to have dropped to 8.895 million in January, 131,000 fewer than in December. On Friday, Non-farm payrolls. Early expectations are for 200,000 job creations. Last month, the US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, after an upwardly revised 333,000 in December, and way above market forecasts of 180,000. (AI Video Summary) The US Dollar This week, there will be important news about jobs in the United States that could affect the value of the USD. On Wednesday, there will be two reports called the ADP employment change and the Jolt's job openings. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment change will show how many people were hired by private businesses in February. In January, there were 107,000 new jobs created, and the forecast for February is 150,000 new jobs. The Jolt's job openings report will show how many job openings there were in January compared to December. It is expected that there will be a decrease of 131,000 job openings. Non-farm payrolls data Then on Friday, there will be a report called the non-farm payrolls data. This report will give an early estimate of how many jobs were created in February. In January, the US economy added 353,000 jobs, which was better than what people expected. The forecast for February is 200,000 new jobs. All of these job reports are important because they can give us clues about what the Federal Reserve might do with interest rates, which can affect the value of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve Right now, the US dollar is down a little bit, about 0.02%. Traders are watching closely what Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, says when he speaks to Congress. They are also watching the jobs data. All of this information will help traders understand what the Federal Reserve might do with interest rates, this in turn can affect how strong or weak the US dollar is compared to other currencies. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The AUD/USD dropped 0.58% to .6525, hit by poor Australian economic data and falling commodity prices, amidst dovish signals from the RBNZ and looming concerns over Australia's economic outlook. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD GDP United States dollar Australian dollar Australia Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 04 March 2024 06:27 The faltering three-week rally in the AUD/USD concluded last week as it closed 0.58% lower at .6525, despite the US dollar index, the DXY, also losing ground. The decline in the AUD/USD was prompted by softer-than-expected Australian inflation and retail sales data. This was compounded by an intensification in offshore headwinds, as crucial commodity prices, including iron ore, dipped, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated a reduced likelihood of rate hikes and an earlier commencement of rate cuts, which sent the Kiwi dollar tumbling lower. Adding to the pressures on the AUD/USD, data this week is expected to reveal that growth in Australia during Q4 2023 was below par amid subdued consumption and a significant drop in business inventories. What is expected from GDP Q4 (Wednesday, March 6th at 11:30am AEDT) Australian GDP grew by 0.2% in the September quarter of 2023 and 2.1% YoY. While this marked the eighth consecutive rise in quarterly GDP, it was deemed weak, as more typical GDP levels in Australia are nearer to 3%. Within the details: Per capita GDP growth declined by 0.5% QoQ. This was the third successive quarterly fall in per capita GDP, also dubbed a “per capita recession.” The household saving-to-income ratio dropped to 1.1%, its lowest level since December 2007, as households tapped into accumulated savings to counter cost of living pressures. Government spending and capital investment were the primary growth drivers. Household spending remained stagnant as government benefits and rebates reduced household expenditure on essential services such as electricity. This quarter (December or Q4), GDP is anticipated to grow by 0.2%, and the annual growth rate is expected to increase by merely 1.5%, offering further proof that economic activity has decelerated in response to higher interest rates. A negative quarterly figure on Wednesday is within the realms of possibility. We anticipate that softer inflation, easing labour markets, and slower growth will lead the RBA to retract its tightening stance in June before implementing rate cuts of 25bp in August and November 2024. AU annual GDP rate chart Source: TradingEconomics AUD/USD technical analysis In last week's article, we noted that the AUD/USD had struggled to overcome resistance coming from the 200-day moving average currently at .6560 and said “The longer it spends lingering under the 200-day moving average, the more chance there is of a retest of the mid-February .6442 low with scope towards weekly support near .6310.” The scenario above remains our base case, aware that the AUD/USD needs to see a sustained move above the 200-day moving average at .6560 and then above the mid-January .6625 high to negate downside risks and warn that a more robust recovery is underway. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Source:Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 4 March 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Global markets have kicked off the week on a largely positive note ahead of major central bank meetings and data releases that will impact rate hike expectations. Japan's Nikkei index moved on past 40,000, having enjoyed a strong rally so far this year, buoyed by tech and AI stocks like Tokyo Electron. The Nikkei has benefitted from a shift towards tech nearshoring as foreign funds leave Chinese markets. Japanese Tokyo inflation data on Tuesday will test whether price rises are slowing as expected after base effects. Markets expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates and yield curve control in April given strong wage growth. Japan may also declare an end to deflation this week, further supporting policy tightening. Upbeat Q4 GDP data suggests Japan may have avoided recession after all. China's National People's Congress this week could unveil new stimulus measures and set a 5% 2022 GDP target. Attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell's Congressional testimony midweek for any fresh rate hike signals. Friday's US jobs report could also shift expectations if hiring remains robust in February after January's strong gains.

Apple’s recent stock weakness marks a divergence with other members of the Magnificent 7 and the broader Nasdaq 100. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Apple Inc. Artificial intelligence Price iPhone Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 01 March 2024 13:26 AI Efforts in Question Apple's stock fell below $180 on Thursday for the first time since early-November, underperforming the broader market. While the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq indices posted solid gains, Apple shares slipped around 1%. Source: Google Finance The decline comes as doubts loom about Apple's artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. Rivals like Microsoft are delivering strong earnings growth tied to burgeoning AI technology. This was highlighted by Tuesday's report that Apple is discontinuing its decade-long electric vehicle project. Back in 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook called the autonomous car endeavour the "mother of all AI projects." Stock Underperforms Broader Market So far in 2024, Apple shares have dropped 3%, trailing the S&P 500's 7% gain and the Nasdaq's 9% climb. Despite its long-term market-beating returns, Apple has recently lagged the S&P 500 on 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year timeframes, according to FactSet data. After spending most of 2021 to 2023 as the world's most valuable public company by market capitalization, Apple surrendered that crown to Microsoft in January. Microsoft's sales and profit growth have far outpaced Apple's, which posted negative growth in its 2022 fiscal year ending last September. AI Investment Hints but Details Lacking At Wednesday's shareholder meeting, Cook suggested Apple is "investing significantly" in generative AI. He said more specifics will be announced later this year. UBS analyst David Vogt predicts Apple's first major AI launch will come in June at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. iPhone Sales Weakness Looms In addition to AI uncertainties, expectations for weak iPhone sales growth continue to weigh on Apple. iPhones accounted for 58% of Apple's total revenue last quarter. Some See Positives in Car Project Halt Some analysts see a silver lining in the halt of Apple's electric car plans. It enables the company to refocus AI talent on nearer-term products with greater market potential. To Morgan Stanley, it also shows Apple's "cost discipline." Apple analyst rating LSEG (formerly known as Refinitiv) data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Apple with 10 strong buy, 17 buy, 13 hold and 2 sell – and a mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $201.41 for the share, roughly 16% higher than the current price (as of 1 March 2024). Source: LSEG Technical outlook on the Apple share price The Apple share price continues to precariously weigh on its $180.30 to $179.25 support zone which consists of the January-to-February lows. A fall through and daily chart close below this area looks increasingly likely and would lead to levels being reached which were last traded in early-November with the 3 November low at $176.65 representing the first downside target. Apple Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView Further down sits the $174.49 August low below which key support can be spotted between the September and October lows at $167.62 to $165.67. Were the $180.30 to $179.25 support zone to hold, though, a rise and daily chart close above last week’s high at $185.04 would need to occur, for a recovery off the support area to gain traction. In this scenario the Apple share price would trade back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $183.90 and target the 55-day SMA at $188.50. This will continue to favour a fall through support at $179.25 to take place as long as the Apple share price continues to trade below last week’s high at $185.04. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.