Caseynotes

Permabears tryna call the market top like

for some reason the market just won't bend to my will and those dam ned central bankers keep interfering to prevent any kind of a melt down, blo ody ridiculous and irresponsible I know but there it is. Retail sales and indy production are down because of 18 months of trade war, indices are buying into an increasing likelihood of a progressive resolution of that trade war.

ha ha yes. who really knows the future, I know I don't. What I do know is that the market is always looking for value, when price runs out of buyers it goes down looking for support, when it runs out of sellers it goes up looking for resistance. TA won't tell you where these places are on the chart because price is too fluid (buyers and sellers are whimsical just like you) no matter what time frame you are working on. This morning Dax started off looking for support and looks to have found it at S1 (13163) for now at least, fine, great, it doesn't really matter where it found it, only that you are able to recognise that it did.

Dow starting above the pivot while Dax starts below, usually see Dax fall into line and follow Dow when this happens. On the longer term time frames both are at or near their highs so expecting continuation until PA proves otherwise. H1 charts;

Dax just pulling back on the London open as is Dow which pushed through it's all time high overnight. Ftse and ASX still trapped by resistance. China announced more poor manu data as the trade dispute drags on.

Overnight Indices mixed, Bonds, Oil and Gold up. Chart BTC down 1%. US oil and USD still trapped by resistance, Gold trying to push up off recent lows. Ger prelim GDP beat expectations this morning +0.1%, -0.1% forecast. UK retail sales at 9:30am, EU GDP at 10am and US PPIs at 1:30pm. Fed's Powell testifies to congress at 3pm.

Also today is the start of the Trump impeachment hearings which might also affect the markets. Starting at 10am (I think EST which is 3pm gmt). How to watch Wednesday's impeachment hearing By Veronica Stracqualursi, CNN Updated 1103 GMT (1903 HKT) November 13, 2019 https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/13/politics/watch-impeachment-hearing-wednesday/index.html?utm_content=2019-11-13T12%3A11%3A07&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_medium=social&utm_term=image

Dax and Dow looking to bounce up off S2 meanwhile more good news as EU industrial production m/m stays positive in spite of forecast to decrease 0.2%.

Different grades different markets.

A tag on the highs just before London cash close yesterday and then a pullback to mid range. Both below the daily pivot this morning so would expect to see an attempt on the pivot on the London open, success or failure will determine either R1 or S1 as the next target.

Dax and Dow consolidating around the highs, Ftse contemplating the up coming UK election and S&P made it's 8th new all time high in the last 14 trading days yesterday.

Overnight Indices, Bonds and Oil down. Gold up, Crypto mixed. Chart Gold. UK CPI at 9:30am. US CPI at 1:30pm. Japan GDP at 11:50pm.

New educational video from CryptoCred on Multi Time Frame analysis. (120 min)

Huge beat in ZEW figures: EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV), Actual: -2.1 Expected: -13.0 Previous: -22.8

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Early push through up to R1 for Dow, Dax follows. Ger econ sentiment today though still negative is expected to show signs of recovery and Trump speaks on the economy at 5pm may impact the markets today.

Dax and Dow looking set to push higher, Ftse and ASX still trapped by resistance. BAML global fund managers survey of asset allocation shows push into equities and sentiment for global economy for the next 12 months turns positive.

Trump speaks and the market duly responds, back to risk on. Indices, Oil and USD up, Bonds and Gold down. UK average earnings, EU and Ger econ sentiment at 10am, Trump and Fed speak this afternoon.

not the case, the commercials are the product producers, users and hedgers working through investment banks and institutions, large speculators are registered traders working for investment banks and institutions, note that the net positions of the two are a near mirror image. During trends large speculators are usually on the right side of the market but tend to get over extended and when there is no one else to sell/ buy to/from the market stops working for them, commercials are better at seeing these signs of coming tops and bottoms. Your graph shows the long bull trend in Dow in which the large speculators are net long for the duration while the commercials are net short. But you need not worry about the commercials they do just fine providing the other side of the market for the large speculators, as you point out, many of the commercial contracts are hedging for the producers/users and are expected to expire worthless.

that's right, you can't actually buy the index, you can only buy the leveraged derivative such as a cfd, spread bet or option on futures which is based on the underlying index.

An index is a market that sets out to track or mimic the performance of a basket of constituents stocks but is not tied to them directly. The index is a market in it's own right and behaves as directed by the market participants, the buyers and sellers of the index, not the constituent stocks.

H4 Dax and Dow on the US market open look to have found support after pulling back on news Trump had never agreed to a roll back of the tariffs late on Friday.

Over 70% of countries making up the MSCI World Index (23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets) now have a rising 200 dma. "Following up on last week's report – on the importance of the big picture: Most global Stock markets are in uptrends (rising 200dmas). This condition defined *nearly all* global Bull markets in history, AND weakness correctly anticipated every Bear market. Currently Bullish."

Hi , best to start with the IG Academy, you will need to login first. https://www.ig.com/uk/learn-to-trade/ig-academy

Hi, it might be worth taking a look at the Edgewonk journaling package which covers spread betting, cfd, FX, stocks and Futures. https://edgewonk.com/stocks-trading-journal/