Caseynotes
-
Posts
13,207 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
556
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Community Tutorials
Store
Posts posted by Caseynotes
-
-
3 minutes ago, Mercury said:
2000 to 2008 (8 years)
2009 to 2019 or 20? (10 years?)
NOT exactly a lifetime but certainly life changing for those caught the wrong side and those open minded enough not to let bias blind them to opportunity (either way). Data helps us but price action tells the tale.
Not exactly the end of the world either, but the difference is identifying a period of downtrend vs a period of consolidation. There have only been two short periods of downtrend so far this century so just shorting the highs is not the strong play. During consolidation in an uptrend the drops can be sharp and quick then it's a grind back to the top but there are more fake drops than real which is why retail, who are always trying to pick the tops, always do so badly. Which is why looking to identify support and catch the ride back up with the possibility of a breakout and trend continuation is the better play. When will be the next downtrend, who knows but we will know it when we see it. Until then there is no rush to get short.
-
Actually it was all through most of 2015 as well but the point remains the same as today.
By far the highest probability is for price to leave a chart pattern or period of consolidation going in the same direction as it went in.
Counter trend trades are always short duration trades. In an uptrend the stronger play is to look for bottoms not tops.
The doomsters who are waiting for the end of the world usually wait lifetimes.
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, dmedin said:
This is a time for shorting. Take your pick, there's plenty to make money shorting on right now!
Actually that's interesting, the line I drew on the daily chart this morning at yesterday's low when zoomed out to the monthly chart is last months low.
But short away to your hearts content, the bulls need suckers to take the other side of their trades.
-
Bespoke
"2008 and 2009, 1934 and 1935 are the only other years to start Q4 with a 2-day drop of 2%+."
(see below)
-
Indices will be looking for support here at a prior low for Dow and Dax, the most important US PMI figure (non-manufacturing) comes out today at 3pm, expected to be 55.1. An actual figure way outside the expected can really move the market as seen following the disappointing manu PMI on Tuesday.
See below for more info on the Purchasing Managers Index which is a survey of expectations for the near future, 50 being neutral, above 50 is expectation of expansion and below 50 is expectation of contraction of business activity. PMIs are a leading indicator and the non-manu figure today is mostly services which are a main driver of US GDP.
-
1
-
-
Continuing risk off as the Indices look for support, Indices and Oil down and Gold up yesterday. Chart US Oil.
The big one today is US non-manu PMI at 3pm 55.1 expected but data releases starting at 2:45pm.
Ger and EU PMIs 8:55 and 9am.
-
On 25/09/2019 at 12:41, Guest Orbital said:
Hi,
I can open a CFD account my only option is to open a share trading account. Been looking for an answer can seem to find one
Thanks
10 minutes ago, dmedin said:You need to be a professional investor / industry insider and / or have £500,000 to open a CFD account. I suspect having at least £500,000 to deposit is given the greater weight.
Don't understand the question but a CFD account is similar to a spread betting account but with different tax liabilities. You only need the 500k or industry experience if you want to be registered as a professional and so have access to greater leverage. Because SB and CFD are leveraged there is a higher qualifying bar than that of a share dealing account such as min income and savings.
-
1
-
-
Dow looking to hold at S1, same for Dax which coincides with the daily chart support level 12142
M30 charts;
-
9 hours ago, Bruzanz said:
If l have a pending order on MT4,will it execute if my laptop is not connected to the internet?
Hi, yes, once the pending order has been accepted by the broker it will be action'd at the approp time unless you cancel or change the order.
-
On 01/10/2019 at 03:41, ThisisSimonlee said:
Is anyone having a problem where you can get newsfeed when you tab market data?
On the new platform the news feed is activated from the Left side tab, see pic.
1 hour ago, tehka said:Are you using MT4? My news can't work either. Perhaps it is just not enabled.
For MT4 you need to download the IG app pack, the news feed is IG Connect, see pic.
-
“I Gamble Because I’m Good at It,” Says IG Founder in New Book
Stuart Wheeler's autobiography delves into IG's early days and provides some insider insights on British politics
-
All the indices took a hit on the very poor US manu PMI data yesterday with Dow breaking down through key support 26714. The move was so strong because the figure was way outside consensus even though manufacturing only accounts for 13% of US economic activity. Of more interest, especially after yesterday, will be Thursday's non-manu PMI expected to come in at 55.1 and don't forget Friday's NFP. The Fed will be watching and wondering if more rate cuts might be needed before the year is out.
Last yearly quarter of the decade folks, time to get a move on 🙂
-
1
-
-
Overnight some recovery from the big US PMI manu miss yesterday. USD up Crypto down, Bonds down Oil up. Chart US 30y Treasury H4.
Watch out for the US ADP non-farm payroll data at 1:15 may hint to Friday's main NFP release, expected at 140k.
-
Looked at the S&P monthly this morning but worth checking Dow, Dax, Ftse and ASX monthlies as they are all staring at their All Time Highs. Dow is the closest and it would not take too much to push on through and as the US is the world econ driver the rest are likely to follow, some headway in the China/US trade dispute would do it.
Monthly charts;
-
1
-
-
Dax pushed up to weekly chart resistance at 12495 and through R1 before pulling back to the pivot while Dow pushed through R1 before pulling back to settle mid way between the pivot and R1.
Plenty of Fed speak this afternoon as well as US PMIs at 3pm.
M30 charts;
-
5 minutes ago, Trevbeats said:
So the clients is one thing ie sentiments: but the indicator saying bullish or bearish or even mixed means follow this advice?
yes, if retail are heavy short they are probably wrong so consider going long but it doesn't always work, sometimes retail get it right just as sometimes the professionals in the COT report get it wrong and have to turn and chase the market.
-
1 minute ago, Trevbeats said:
Yes corelation is a good guide for this Thank you.
I am just looking at the chart you send me If the usd/chf is 61% short why does it say Bullish?
contrarian indicator, if 74% of retail traders lose money and 61% of retail are short usdchf then best go long 🙂
-
2 minutes ago, Trevbeats said:
Ok Thanks for that. I must admit im not keen on setiments? Not relible enough. Whats you take on them CN
I don't look at it routinely but occasionally out of interest. You can be sure that every time the US indices reach the highs the retail crowd will be very short because retail are very good at picking the tops (not).
-
12 minutes ago, Trevbeats said:
THanks for the info. I clicked on the link, and it seems to be flashing on and off?
Hi Trev, you need to be logged in to get the full IG page.
DailyFX has recently updated their web pages so you can see a large selection here,
https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
Remember retail sentiment (positioning) is considered a contrarian indicator as opposed to the COT report which looks at professional market positioning.
-
12 hours ago, DSchenk said:
Would love to hear your feedback!
Who thinks this is all utter rubbish, please let me know
Great work and thanks for sharing, not rubbish at all. As the data shows there is a lot of activity on market open (London 8am and US 2:30pm uk time). I tend to be a bit cautious on the open and for a short time after, all the overnight orders are processes sequentially on a first come (onto the order book) first served basis and then there are new orders reacting to that so there can be a short period of price whipsawing. Also it's not unusual to see an attempt to check the pivot with a view to pick up more support before heading in whichever direction.
-
1
-
-
7 hours ago, Rajan_b said:
Hi Caseynotes,
Thanks for the update.
The us cfd index option do I have to pay the premium full upfront when I purchase Call or put option or leverage available.?
Any Brokers other than Uk Brokers do offer US Stock options with leverage ..?
( exclude plus500)
Hi, the IG options are CFDs so are leveraged, they are on the demo platform so get on and have a play, see what you think. As above I don't know UK any brokers that do US stock options, maybe Saxo might be worth a look.
-
All moving up off support into recent resistance, short term bullish as the US indices heading back into the highs.
Daily charts.
Also below is the S&P monthly chart plus a special offer for all those trying to make a career shorting the indices.
-
Risk neutral to risk on. Indices Oil up, Bonds Gold down. USD Crypto up.
EU CPI at 10am, US PMI at 3pm.
-
5 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Wall Street is dipping.
But Dax not following, Dow checking for support having been unable to push up through 26940, not really a strong bearish move.
M30 chart;
-
1
-
MT4 Servers Down
in IG Chart Support - Charts, MT4 and PRT
Posted
Lost the mt4 server feeds for both live and demo, no connection. ☹️