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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes

  1. Dax starting above the pivot while Dow starts below so lack of sync as to prospective direction this morning, if not the European open then the London open should decide it. Gotta be either a test of support or a test of resistance.

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  2. 6 hours ago, everyfish said:

    Hi, I’m new to IG, I’m confused about the size of “trade size”, how large is one size if measured by USD?

    Hi, it's going to depend on what you are trading, if you look at the top of the IG welcome page and click on 'Markets to trade' and select from the list there will be a link to product details as in the example below for commodities.

    image.thumb.png.7c384790142698df85770fa0525ee5cf.png

  3. Pause day candle for Dow yesterday, tried higher and lower and didn't like either so will be waiting for signs of direction. Ftse perched on the weekly chart key support (red) while Dax looks keen to check the top of the recent range. Not much news wise on the calendar today so will just have to wait for a Trump tweet 🙂 

    So far a pretty good week for the S&P but the US GDP figures tomorrow will decide it.

    image.thumb.png.41229f98c953e68b7253727e26a92ca0.png

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  4. 2 hours ago, dmedin said:

    How does one pick the 'right' support and resistance levels?

    I think that simple advice would be worth a thousand articles.

    Repeated from another thread.

    1 hour ago, dmedin said:

    'Knowing' what they are doing gives us the ability to 'hide' behind them.

    S/R become more significant the longer the period of time they have been in place, and also the volume that has built up around them ...

    I don't know how to pick the 'right' S/R so I just use Fibonacci ratios which usually seem to be a good approximation.

    IG's DOM platform is free to use but you need a cfd account with a min deposit of £1000 (I think).

    In fact drawing support and resistance levels is relatively simple and they are usually the site of clusters of resting orders as seen on the DOM platform and they also correlate well with futures options positioning.

    You don't need to 'pick' them, you just need to be aware of them and look to see how price reacts at them because they are usually sites of breakouts or reversals.

    Intraday I would switch to the daily pivot points calculated by the 'Floor' method as the IG default uses but not on a Monday as the 1 hour Sunday candle distorts. The intraday pivot levels are available at the start of day and often correlate well with the H4 and H1 support resistance levels drawn at end of day. 

     

    • Like 2
  5. 1 hour ago, dmedin said:

     

    I take it IG has this but its use its restricted from the bottom feeding retail clients.

     

    1 hour ago, dmedin said:

    'Knowing' what they are doing gives us the ability to 'hide' behind them.

    S/R become more significant the longer the period of time they have been in place, and also the volume that has built up around them ...

    I don't know how to pick the 'right' S/R so I just use Fibonacci ratios which usually seem to be a good approximation.

    IG's DOM platform is free to use but you need a cfd account with a min deposit of £1000 (I think).

    In fact drawing support and resistance levels is relatively simple and they are usually the site of clusters of resting orders as seen on the DOM platform and they also correlate well with futures options positioning.

    You don't need to 'pick' them, you just need to be aware of them and look to see how price reacts at them because they are usually sites of breakouts or reversals.

    Intraday I would switch to the daily pivot points calculated by the 'Floor' method as the IG default uses but not on a Monday as the 1 hour Sunday candle distorts. The intraday pivot levels are available at the start of day and often correlate well with the H4 and H1 support resistance levels drawn at end of day. 

     

  6. Practice for the sake of practice does not make perfect, it just makes permanent. You will not eventually 'get it' by repeating 'wrong' continually. Reinforcing bad practice with more bad practice will only lead to failure. 

    If something is not working seek to identify what is wrong and test alternatives.

    The biggest problem is usually correctly identifying market type and structure, this is essential in order to know what strategy to apply and when, for example MA crossovers and dip buying type strategies will not work in non-trending markets or when the trend breaks down and they also won't work when buying directly into resistance or selling directly into support. And so strategies for playing ranging markets will always fail as soon as the market starts trending.

    Strategies are designed either for directional (trend) or balanced (range) markets, imo its best to pick one to start with and get good at it before adding more, so you need to find the market to suit your selected strategy. 

    Decide on a strategy, define the market type and structure it would need for it to work then sort through charts to find that market.  

     

     

  7. Including this from another thread to this one on reasons to learn trading using the MT4 platform.

    MT4 Learn to Trade


    Though there are many platforms to choose from learning to trade on mt4 stands out for a good number of important reasons. IG offers a multitude of platforms each with their own special features but essentially they all set out to do the same job. If you are just starting out you should not be looking to specialise but should first be seeking to learn the basic art of trading on a average market on a average time frame. Once you have learnt to use a platform picking up how to use any of the others is relatively simple and mt4 is good first choice.

     

    Built in trading journal.

    It usually takes a while before people learn that they need to be journaling their trades, all that time is wasted. And no, the account PnL is not enough, when you start out you will be trialing many different approaches, at some point you will realise you've come full circle, you'll stop to consider what you've learnt and you'll realise the answer is nothing because you have no record of what you've done and what worked when. With a journal you can review and compare different time periods and see without doubt what was working and by how much. MT4's built in journal starts recording your trades from day 1.

     

    Micro lot bet sizes.

    Demo is really only useful to learn the ins and outs of the platform, and maybe checkout the basic prospects of a new strategy, you will not learn to trade on the demo platform, you need to be risking real money, even if it's only fractions to begin with, start low with a view to build up as your skill and confidence grows rather than starting too high, panicking because of the risk and being forced to drop down, this crushes confidence. MT4 is the only IG platform where you are able to start at 10 pence per point (micro contracts).

     

    All styles of charts.

    Every conceivable chart type is available on mt4 (HA, Renko etc) allowing you to experiment and get a feel for them and find out early if they work for you or not, learning on a platform with only the basic chart types (line, bar and candle) will leave you wondering and looking backwards rather than forwards as you progress.

     

    Every type of indicator.

    The range of indicators available for free download is legendary, literally 10's of thousands. Same as for chart types, experiment to get a feel for what suits early on and develop from there.

     

    Easy learn auto trading with mt4 EAs.

    EAs were a main feature for mt4 right from the beginning. Trading robots are popular and mt4 has special features to make the use of Bots easy to learn and, as for indicators, there are many already written you can download plus there is lots of tuition on how to write one yourself.

     

    Lots of help and support network via the mql5 community.

    The resource pages on mql5.com for mt4/5 are huge and there is also a very large and active members forum, most any question you might have is likely to have been already answered, search and see, if an answer is not found just ask the community.


     

    MT4 may well not be the platform you end up with once you have learnt the actual basics of trading, it has it's faults like any platform, doesn't cover stocks for example, but it probably should be the one to start out on to learn how to trade.

  8. Same morning picture keeps presenting itself, need to go back to the 15th for something different. Early check of support, both are above the pivot so will be looking for buy opportunities on the lower time frames.

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  9. Indices continuing to bounce within the recent range, Dow currently midway back up. US GDP on Thursday (prelim) expected at 2% (annualised) could provide the push either way for a break.

    Ftse sagging under the weight of Brexit uncertainty. 

    image.thumb.png.698aea6f9703fbcf6755835259152a7f.png

  10. 2 hours ago, BoJK said:

    This happens to me ALL the time. 

     

    48 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Tight stops mean quick and frequent losses.

    Looser stops mean it takes longer for the pain to build up.

    Either way it's painful.  But with looser stops you are like the frog that slowly gets boiled alive without realizing it.

    ok, it's going to depend on how you look at the market but the idea is that if you have a trade idea then your stop loss is set where the validation for the trade idea was proved wrong, so in fact most stops should be very tight, it's the trade idea that's probably wrong. You might like the idea of having a massive stop and then sit back and watch price gyrate all over the place but you may as well go back to coin flipping. 

    Using the H4 chart above as an example, if trading the range a limit entry order with a tight stop just beyond the support or resistance level would be appropriate going both up or down, if not using a limit order but waiting for the bounce before entry fine but the stop goes in the same place. The point is that the support or resistance will either hold or not, if it doesn't hold you want to be out as soon as possible.

    Of course if you took the opposing view and though the levels wont hold then you wouldn't be shorting into support or buying into resistance but rather be waiting for the level to break first.

    S/R levels are dominant over MAs, S/R levels represent the likely placement areas of orders and are not just the result of a math sum based on historic averages. 

     

    image.thumb.png.5406a8fed84e014e0435bf14cb9cf7e3.png

  11. 5 hours ago, BlackburnRover said:

    Hi all, 

    I'm a newbie to trading and was wondering if somebody could explain this to me..

    I took a GBP/EUR buy trade on Friday, one that I wanted to leave to run  all day as I thought it would be on the up. I set my stop loss and went out for the day.

    Unfortunately I got delayed and when I got back the market had closed and I couldnt do anything with my trade. It showed I was in nice profit though so wasnt too concerned.

    When I've logged in today the position had been closed out at my stop loss at 9pm last night !

    So would this be the opening time in asia ?

    There seemed to be a big slip in price, are these common when markets open and close - I wont be doing it again either way !!!!

    Kind Regards

    Hi, IG shuts down at 10pm Friday and any open trades are carried over on restart which for FX is 9pm Sunday. There can often be gaps in the market price on restart especially if there has been volatile news over the weekend.

  12. 25 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Oops, got screwed again.

    Maybe with this kind of volatility it's better not to trade.  The time to get short was around end of July/beginning August, when the MAs went down.  Since then it's just been painful and pointless.  Will wait for the MAs to trend back up again.

    The volatility is a good thing and though MAs are of an interest I wouldn't start there. Using Dow as a proxy on the H4 chart the support levels were very clear, 25073 (red) and 25273 (blue).

    Never a good idea to short directly into support (or buy directly into resistance).

    image.thumb.png.c44f349aef85f97b9aa3c2da5f65b6d6.png

  13. 8 hours ago, dmedin said:

    Recession or not, the indices look like they are having a downturn to me ... the only question is whether you try to hop on or wait till they reach the bottom and rise back up with them.  :)

    While it's true markets can carry momentum it's just as true that they can turn on a dime as we've seen multiple times recently, it's also true they can be carried great distances very fast by sheer panic. But look at the Dow monthly chart below, that is not a bearish chart no matter which way you look at it.

    It's easy to see why top pickers would be getting edgy but you simply can't rely on technicals alone, each bear bar in the latest section was started by a Trump tweet called precisely at the highs. Once the new information was assimilated the markets momentum pushed price back up to the highs again each time, the upward momentum exists because of the continuing strong economic data being reported on the US economy, the data needs to change to bearish before the chart will. 

    Reminder; one key metric to watch US GDP is released on Thursday.

     

    image.thumb.png.3bfd57c09082203db8a29453dcdc629a.png

    • Like 1
  14. So we know via client sentiment as used as a contrarian indicator that retail traders can't be trusted to call the next market move, and as above we see that the media also can't be trusted but what about the Fed, surely they know what's going on - don't they?

    Well no actually, in Fed statements an increase of the citations of the words 'risk' and 'uncertainty' tend to precede a rise in the market while increased use of words like 'certain' usually preceded a fall.

    If even top of the field professionals can't see into the future you certainly shouldn't be trusting amateur gurus, just read the chart in front of you. The funny thing is that with minimal chart training everyone can see where to trade, it's just doing it that's the hard part, which is why so many are so easily mislead by the more vocal.

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  15. yes @TrendFollower, there are plenty of long term investors with IG and it's right they should take notice and plan well ahead for any eventuality but traders should be thinking differently and look to be responsive to changes in market conditions. As in my previous post the big indices always look a bit toppy and it's too easy to get in short too soon.

    Back in 2016 there was talk of impending recession for most of the year and many new traders blew their accounts continually shorting the market trying to 'catch the big one', the get rich quick trade. It was depressing to watch. 

    Here's another interesting chart of S&P seasonal pattern of average return 1990-2018 suggesting uncertainty in the short term before resumption upward.

    ro1.jpg.9682b44478f93997bb0db6c7bedd64db.jpg

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