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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes

  1. 11 hours ago, dmedin said:

    Is trading indices better than trading individual stocks?

    yes

    11 hours ago, dmedin said:

    Trading individual stocks is potentially more diverse, but then again the same factors that work on the index as a whole tend to work on companies too (interest rates, state of economy/sector etc).

    no and yes

    11 hours ago, dmedin said:

    The other day IG live-streamed on Youtube, advertising it as 'how to trade the FOMC decision'.  But all the two panellists did was discuss fundamentals and long-term charts, and CB didn't make any effort to trade on the minute charts.

    yes

    11 hours ago, dmedin said:

    Or is that part of the 'game' - using longer-term charts to appear respectable but 'real' trading involves scraping and scalping on minute-by-minute charts?

    yes and no

    11 hours ago, dmedin said:

    and when all the big U.S. stocks are falling at the same time because of a Trump tweet you might as well give up and speculate on short-term movements on Wall Street or S&P 500 instead.

    yes and no.

     

    With indices you are trading a managed portfolio of stocks and therefore the trials and tribulations of a single stock are of no importance. They are managed because poor performers are dropped and good performers are added. So long as GDP continues to rise as it has done for the last hundred years indices will also continue to rise so really a long term one way bet. 

    IG are not allowed to give trading tips in their broadcasts or give advice. None of the commentaries ever do. 

    IG commentators are just trying to aim for the middle ground in their time frame selection and for retail that means trading on daily through to hourly.

    Institutions trade on long term time frames only, anything less than daily is considered just noise but they look to stay in positions for months and years, none of us has the financial backing to allow us the patience to copy that approach. They would consider those who trade the short-term movements are feeding off crumbs and they are correct, if you are a big player it can take days and weeks to get your full position on (or off), they couldn't just jump in and out even if they wanted too. Which is why major markets take days or even weeks to turn, and that's why trying to pick 'the day' is daft.

    • Like 1
  2. 7 hours ago, NickStar said:

    On Friday 03 Aug I couldn't access the MT4 Platform on my CPU and it just said and in Login only gave me th IG-demo option and nothing else.

    Anyoe experience similar otr have any ideas how to sort out probem. I have already  delete and uninstalled and reinstalled the MT4 from IG and from Metatrader and nothing works still the same but does give me a MT5 option that does work but not compatible with MT4 account

    Nick

    Hi, I was using mt4 all day Friday with no problems.

    MT5 is a separate platform and not used by IG so ignore (you must have got that from metatrader not IG). 

    If you downloaded mt4 from IG it will still be in your download folder.

    Assuming you've already set up a live mt4 account with IG and have had it up and running previously check the version of mt4 you are using, 'Help' > 'About'   , it must be build 1170 or later, earlier versions are no longer supported.

    image.png.c3100c21ec2d6482ab9d45ac2d5d680d.png

    Check the IG demo and Live feeds are open and that the ping has returned;

    'File' > 'Open an Account'

    image.png.15baa667c66915c72e99a422ca2514b9.png

    The IG mt4 download put in your download folder is labeled 'ig4setup' and the other pictured below is the additional IG apps pack.

    image.png.1432ae06c748746ce34fbe49be672118.png

     

     

     

     

  3. 1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

    Nope I'm seeing this:

     

    Calendar2.jpg

    ok, that's fine, so you can set the time zone to yours if not all ready there and you can set the Filter (top right green box below 'search') and uncheck the 'low impact' yellow flags.

     

    • Like 1
  4. 1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

    hat's fine but the link you gave me yesterday doesn't have the same time onfo on what you're showing.  I have 1.4f Trump Speaks.

    Trying to relate what there was a bit of jumping about on the 1m chart at precisely 1.30pm with no reference in the link provided.

    Is there another page I should be viewing?

    ok, try this link https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

    you may need to set the time right but it will remember once done, you don't need to register, once the page is set up save it to your favourites bookmark bar.

    • Thanks 1
  5. 1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

    I checked that but didn't see it.  I also assumed it was related to Forex only.

    All the big US data releases are going to have some affect on nearly all markets so that's FOMC, NFP, PMI's, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, GDP, PPI's, CPI's. Most are monthly though FOMC is 8 times a year.

    If any are way outside market expectations will trigger the big guys to re-adjust their holdings so you get big sudden moves. 

     

  6. 8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

    No, not Joking Casey.  There may be a Calendar, but assuming i understand what it all means is foolish.

     

    You don't need to know what especially but you do need to know when, mark off any red flags that mean high priority that concern a market you might be involved in.

    This one we talked about yesterday, that's why I thought you were joking, see pic. 

    image.png.0e62a884797b28a6b749258110366906.png

  7. 1 minute ago, Foxy said:

    @Caseynotes

    Firstly can I ask what a FOMOer is? and secondly are you simply saying sell the highs not the the lows?

    yeah sure, FOMO is Fear Of Missing Out, it's when you see price racing away, you didn't anticipate it and weren't ready for it so you start chasing after it, usually  managing to jump in just as it stops and reverses 🙂

    So not about selling highs or whatever but rather avoid entries where price is about to reach a significant level, so not shorting into support or going long into resistance, instead expect a battle at the level and look for entries as price is leaving rather than arriving, either breaking out or the first pullback thereafter.

  8. 10 minutes ago, HinduDavi said:

    Hi all, 

    I wonder how the currency swap was calculated? i am shorting CAD/CHN, mean buying CHN. even CHN interest rate is higher than CAD How come i'm still getting negative for the interest given in someday. something positive but most of the time negative. kindly assist. thanks

    Hi, see this page for swap calculations.

    https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/why-is-overnight-funding-charged-and-how-is-it-calculated-

  9. Dow in same situ as S&P and the bulls have congregated at 26477 to hold price up and needs to be taken out for price to continue down, if it holds then it's a up for a est of the pivot (PP).

    Dax not joining in but did try a retest of the low overnight 11900 and is now just waiting for Dow and S&P to make the next move.

    H1 charts; 

    image.thumb.png.5948f06c66774a1f9f55fb72a7c327ac.png

  10. Just looking at the S&P and after any big move on news you will always hear a lot of talk from FOMOers that this is a great shorting opportunity but what they never consider is where are the buyers, well they haven't gone anywhere, they are sitting watching the same charts as you and waiting, so where do you think they will they start initiating speculative longs?

    Your average FOMOer will just sit stunned and just watch a big move until it stops and then they wake up and think 'I've got to get short', but why did price just stop, oh look, it's right on a very obvious S/R level, exactly the sort of place buyers will 'have a go'.

    FOMOers are weak hands always late. If you missed the first impulse move wait for a second phase (if there is one) and it won't come til after the support level holding up price is taken out. Shorting directly into strong support is  a mistake, wait for support to be taken out first. order flow (again). 

    image.thumb.png.e907251802cde5252b1f3dac389d43b0.png

    image.thumb.png.e12a329f66ffbc8621885c66092c81c6.png

    • Like 1
  11. The call in yesterday morning's post for a retest of 1400 was spot on to the tick but missed the bit about then going on to test 1450, could be a waiting day today to see how the indices perform and what NFP brings this afternoon.

    image.thumb.png.587700026d14611f6f317371d778c0f3.png

    • Like 1
  12.   On 24/04/2019 at 07:04, Caseynotes said: Worryingly this is usually about the time Trump chooses to ratchet up the trade war threats though it might be different this time.
    Trump waited for the S&P to climb all the way back up before announcing the next big round of tariffs on China, this is the forth time since early 2018 but as with the other times there is likely to be a delay in the next chart move while the markets wait for China's response and it's not clear what they can respond with, they have run out of like for like imports tariffs, the withholding rare earths threat didn't work and they have more to lose banning US companies operating in China. Expecting markets to 'wait and see' but be aware China in the past has made announcements on Sunday before US markets are open so could be risky holding positions open over the weekend.  
    Dax was rattled with a drop down to 11900 early morning on news the US was going to make an announcement on trade disputes with the EU at 13:45 ET today but recovered quickly when considered it may just be to announce a delay while US concentrated on China.

    image.thumb.png.3d29fdee3e38f228d9549a58b8b5f523.png

    image.thumb.png.ffe39c5a2028e51a6763dceb1d2b55fe.png

  13. 1 hour ago, dmedin said:

     

    How did you trade it though?  The one on the left shows a break above R1 then a fall back down.  The one on the right shows a sustained break for one candlestick period.  So, if you are trading a breakout from R1 you lose 50% and win 50%.  Not great odds really.  If you wait for a pullback, then you miss all of the substantial breakout and get very little.  Tricky.  Difficult to call.

    I use the H1 to spot levels and direction, I put them side by side because Dow often is a leading indicator for Dax, I would look for entries on the M1, M5 or even the M15 but no higher than that for intraday. If it looks a bit choppy as it did for Dax today I'd use set amount targets on promising looking pullbacks between levels.

     

  14. 19 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

     

    need more edukayshun, resistance is broken when all the sellers have been cleared out, support is broken when all the buyers have been cleared out. you are not big enough to do the 'clearing out' so sit and wait for a result and join the triumphant march on to the next battle ground. order flow.

    And look, the next battle ground was R1, who would have guessed it.

    image.thumb.png.f30bd0b60e9c8c18d0427ef98e088d4b.png

  15.  

    6 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

    Higher Highs Higher Low's??

    Though as Usual I anticipate a Drop to S1.

    Or was it a Spike to R1....Not sure now lol.

    need more edukayshun, resistance is broken when all the sellers have been cleared out, support is broken when all the buyers have been cleared out. you are not big enough to do the 'clearing out' so sit and wait for a result and join the triumphant march on to the next battle ground. order flow.

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