Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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15 minutes ago, dmedin said:
There seems to be a slight element of, 'since most retail investors are losers, go against the majority' lol! I had a good experience of this lately speculating on Intel, which was over 90% long at one point and has been selling off heavily.
That's correct, it was devised as a contrarian indicator though the crowd aren't always wrong.
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LOL, I know, on that demo trade I did over the weekend price shot up from entry over 800 points before shooting back down to entry in the space of 24 hr 🤣, managed to capture 480.
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11 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Where do you get access to data on net retail clients positions?
On the IG web site when logged in and search a market the info is there as well as related positions. Below is the related markets to Dow.
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Break the downside for Dax, tried to bounce up off S1 but then pushed through, now stuck at the daily chart support level
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Interesting look at MMT and the predictable impact on bonds, stocks and real estate.
https://www.cobdencentre.org/2019/05/debasing-the-baseless-modern-monetary-theory/
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Gold seems to be the main mover this morning, heading down currently at 1283, has tendline support on H1 just below and key support on the Daily at 1266.
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Not sure which way these are going to break this morning but the targets are clear.
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Looking at the weekly charts and the past 3 weeks have been red for Dow and Ftse and this may continue as the bones of the trade war are laid bare and not likely to be resolved any time soon. Trump looks determined to hold China to account for gross intellectual property theft, product copying and selling on the international free market.
There was only a small gap down after the weekend and the collapse of trade talks with no scheduled follow up and it will be interesting to see how the week unfolds.
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Very good fairly comprehensive guide to candle stick patterns;
http://www.newtraderu.com/2019/03/28/the-ultimate-guide-to-candlestick-charting/
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Can you 'Pick the Top'? Ok, off you go;
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Winding down but still some interesting names this week;
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Looks like that 'China has got 4 weeks' from the post above might be right, this vid retweeted by Trump a few hours ago.
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So the final calc for the demo trade opened on Saturday morning was a profit of 3.5 R, that is a reward of 3.5 Xs the risk which is of course a very healthy return and all down to keeping an eye on chart structure and taking advantage as opportunity presents itself and avoiding the temptation to try to pick tops and fading big moves. If you look back through the thread that was the whole reason to start the demo.
Good to see BTC moving again, in the second half of 2017 I use to give intraday running commentaries on the forum on BTC PA, exciting times, especially the panic when price was plunging 30%, you could smell the blood in the water 😅
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Just looking at the H1 chart and this latest run looks to be in trouble with the bears trying for their 4th straight red candle and a second attempt to break below 7181 after a double failure on the high of 7561.
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Opps, sudden thrust down takes out the stop. Something of a long squeeze there, strong push up through resistance to get short stops and the breakout longs triggered and then a hard push down.
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So just to check up on that demo BTC trade which started out as a demonstration of what I would be looking for in a entry to get aboard a move has evolved in to trade management.
Onto the chart and price has leaped forward over night again to a new high at 7428 followed by a big pullback and now retesting that high. The stop was moved up to 6850 last evening and up to below the recent low structure 7241 this morning.
Our micro lot trade 10p/point started with an initial risk (stop loss 10 plus spread 3.8) of £13.80.
Currently plus £70 with a fairly safe stop (🙄 er, it is btc) at plus £48.
For other possible entry points look at the Stochastic indicator and match to price action. The trend is up so only looking for longs, we want a deep pullback to around oversold to give us the chance of a long leg up, and also a matching candle pattern to signal the long entry. After my entry (circle) there have been 3/4 opportunities on this M15 chart. Once in the trade we then want Stochastic to climb up into over bought and remain there forever 🙂
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So just waiting for price to continue on through the recent high at 7000 so we can move our stop up to 6850, just below the recent structure low.
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26 minutes ago, dmedin said:
I don't know how anyone can be successful day trading unless they start with a big balance and can make meaningful profit from just a few points/pips movement.
It's horses for courses @dmedin, lots of traders can't leave a trade alone for 2 seconds without jumping in to make adjustments and mucking it all up 😀
If you have the temperament for it and have learnt how to read a chart live rather than just it's history then remember that charts move step wise and so the straight line might be 100 ticks but the total up ticks to get there may well have been 150, two steps forward one step back.
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46 minutes ago, dippy1999 said:
When I click the blue "add account" button I get a whole bunch of options but then when I click one (say, "MetaTrader spread betting") a pop opens and then nothing else happens. It is just blank.
Hi @dippy1999, not sure if that's due to it being a weekend or a problem on the platform. Might need a call to the helpdesk Monday.
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BTC currently trying to push though the recent high 6951, the next target above is the prior high from October 15 at 7169.
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If any proof was needed that big BTC traders use Pivots ...;
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Hi @BOBCAT01, on the spread betting mt4 platform 1.00 equates to £1/point so 0.10 is £0.10/point, 10 pence per point.
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I saw this on twitter from Cred this morning, he's clearly getting grief from some of his 120,000 followers who want to pick the top and fade the move. As I've highlighted in the SSI thread, youse are looking at it upside down.
Cred @CryptoCred
"As is typical: people are still looking to short immediately after resistance has been blitzed. Traders are upset that they missed the fast move & they’ll find any reason to fade it. That’s how you sell the dip. Your spot BTC doubled in weeks — what’s the rush to trade?"
We want to buy dips not sell them is the point Cred is trying to make. But how?
I opened the demo to have a look. Pullbacks are natural, they are profit taking, they are a chance to refill the order book, they are counter trenders 'having a go'. We are looking for something to support price and stop the counter move, something that market movers are using to re-enter or add to longs.
So adding to the chart (2) what did we find? Pivots - no, Fib - no, MA - well which one? Old support - not really.
Sometimes there just isn't anything obvious but there is always price action which we would use as confirmation any way.
The first M15 chart is spotting that pin bar, that's the strongest buying power candle since the top and that's the give away, size is moving in to buy, follow it.
So the entry was as price moved up past the pin bar, with the thumping 38 point spread the entry shows up in the green dot dash line and the stop the red dot dash below the pin. The pin is the reason for entry, if it gets taken out the trade is therefore invalidated.
In the second chart I've added Stoch 10,3,1. I tend to use this for entries as I like to see room for a whole leg ahead before re-entering obos.
What will happen next I don't know but I would expect some resistance at R3 and then at the recent high if it gets there.
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End of week S&P and an interesting touch point on yesterday's daily candle (see chart below).
There were reports going round yesterday concerning the trade talks that there was not actually any meeting as such. The US chief negotiator Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin simply told Vice Premier Liu that they had just 4 weeks before the US imposed 25% tariffs on near everything else imported from China, some $325 Bln worth of goods.
Dax & Dow
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
Initial slide after the weekend and the trade war news then a midday slide on the China announcement of reciprocal tariff increases. China can't have much more in the way of US imports to tariff whereas Trump has lots more.