Caseynotes

Today is week, month and quarter end, so watch out for end flows. Also, UK onto British Summer Time Sunday and so back to the usual US market open and close time by the UK clock.

Dow and Dax manage to push up through near term resistance, Ftse left behind snagged on the brexit vote today.

Agreed @elle, with trade talks in Beijing today and reports yesterday they were down to line by line fine tuning Gold needs to find solid support.

Didn't think I would be using this thread more than once or twice but, gold has the prior low of 1280.6 in it's sights.

Our indices got a lift overnight seemingly off the back of news that Trump was extending the period for ongoing negotiations with China. Dow, Dax and Ftse are nudging up to short term resistance levels so will be looking for a break higher and push upward.

Good video from David Jones (ex IG chief analyst) published just today. How to Trade Using Support and Resistance Levels (Part 1)

Tried to the upside on the London open today but didn't far any better. Dow and Dax reversing at recent prior high and now heading back to their start position. Ftse making a bid for the weekly resistance level 7262 before falling back. US GDP 12:30. US open 1:30

US Final GDP q/q numbers today 12:30 could cause a stir, 2.4% expected. Markets still not sure of direction and continue somewhat range bound. Heading up again early morning but will the London open reverse that as it did yesterday. H1 and Dow daily charts;

The 8 am London open saw everyone pushed back though starting to gain some traction now on the climb back up to the highs of this morning. H1 charts;

Interesting concept @elle, using the ETF BKLN as a leading indicator, worth investigating.

Indices continue the haul upward this morning. Dow heading towards 25795 with support at 25540. Dax looking towards 11569 having just broken through resistance 11447. Ftse in a similar position trying to break up through 7222 to head onto 7262. Draghi is speaking at 8 am and the Brexit circus rumbles on, not much else on the calendar today.

Dow with a similar high volume reversal candle on the daily chart . Dax looking towards 11404 again.

S&P looking to go higher today after the long tailed doji bar yesterday, currently back at 2812.85. Daily chart;

RE; the yield curve inversion, an interesting take on the US 10 y Treasury. Monthly charts. Mike Valletutti, CTA @marketmodel Textbook retest after textbook rejection at 200 MA Yield lows are in. $TNX $TBT

Dow, Dax and Ftse have halted the climb back up to make a base camp, Dow stalling around 25600 on it's climb up after Friday's fall, Dax tagged the 11404 mentioned in yesterday mornings post. Fste stopped at 7207. The London open should show direction from here. Nikkei was doing well until an hour ago when it suffered a large gap down seemingly on the CPI data release dropping to 0.4% from 0.5%. US consumer sentiment today at 2 pm.

Hi Gareth, sorry, didn't see this post before. The ig4setup file is for mt4 itself, the apps file is called IG-MT4-Apps click on the box 'Download your indicators'. from the page you linked in your post above. If you've not already noticed some are indicators and some, such as the mini terminal, are EAs so you need to scroll down the navigator pane to find them.

Mid day Dax and the early down move stopped at 11267, the move up capped at 11390 then a pullback and now another attempt to move higher. H1 chart;

Yes @Kodiak, the first head and shoulders can be said to have played out though not quite making the full measured move while the inverse H&S broke the neckline last week but got stomped on by the bad Ger manu PMI on Thursday. Nothing much news wise except maybe brexit or US GDP data this Thursday to give it a push either way at the mo.

A small gap up on the Dow but quickly cancelled by an Asia inspired continuation down. Dow resting on 25373 with the above mentioned important weekly support level not far below at 25214 while there is prior support turned possible resistance above at 25503. Dax in a similar position resting on 11284 but below that is a long drop down to the weekly support at 10861, above is prior support turned possible resistance at 11404. Ftse has dropped down into clear space with support at 7080 and resistance above at 7262.

Weekend Dow gets an early boost from the just released official summary of the Mueller report (also mentioned in the Sat morning post above). Trump (and all connected to him) no evidence of any Russian collusion or obstruction of justice.

In the post above I wrote how the news of the inverted yield curve broke mid day Friday and may have contributed to the continuation down for the indices Friday afternoon, but before you all pile in short Monday morning there are a few important points to consider. While it's true that the inverted yield curve (10y/1y) often precedes a recession, in the last recession of 2007 it preceded it by nearly a full 2 years. As an indicator that might be stretching it a bit. In fact the average lead time of the 9 recessions since the 1950's is 14 months, so you might want to take your finger off the sell button just for the moment. Pic 2 is also interesting and shows a following recession is not a dead cert and also that currently the inversion has only just touched into negative territory. And in pic 3 we see that the more widely used 10y/2y has not inverted at all (yet?). Like all indicators it's indicating possibilities, something to be aware of, until there's price action confirmation I would keep the finger off the trigger.

Weekly charts and an interesting Friday. Red weekly bars all round, it was all going good til Friday though Dax started heading down on Thursday with very poor PMIs, Then on Friday US PMIs were down on expectations though still in positive territory, then mid-day the treasury yield curve inversion breaking news and the selling continued as longs built up over the week were exited before the weekend. Ftse gave up all Mon-Thurs gains plus some as did the others. More interesting news that came out after the US close was that there would be no further indictments from the Mueller inquiry which is finally wrapping up, so no chance of a Trump impeachment on that score. That may make an impression when markets open and provide a boost, but if the fall continues the level to keep an eye on is the Dow support at 25214. Included is the S&P daily, worth keeping an eye on this as well to see if it can turn the 2812.85 resistance level recently broken into support.

Dax dropped down to 11464 (Blue), now trying to bounce back.

Ger manu PMI 44.7 actual vs 48 expected Dax falls back after capturing 11601.

Strong bull day for Dow and Ftse yesterday, Dax still struggling to keep up, Ger PMIs today at 8:30, manu expected at 48 (47.6 last month, less than 50 is contraction) Ger services PMI expected 54.8. French PMIs at 8:15 an EU PMIs at 9:00. US PMIs at 1:45. On the Dax H1 yesterday's low 11464 or H1 resistance at 11601 are the initial targets. Ftse sitting mid way between H4 support at 7292 and H4 resistance at 7370.