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Caseynotes

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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. http://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-monday-400762 Overview Brief. Re; Oil, China, USD, Stocks, Gold
  2. Hi  It's easy to suppose that getting stopped out is a bad thing but in reality it's statistically inevitable and the price of doing business. Having at least some idea of the probability and risk of any trade before entry is very important for survival. You have rightly identified a key indicator to that probability are the multiple time frame charts as  has demonstrated repeatedly. Coincidentally the latest video from Tradeciety demonstrates how to go about multi time frame analysis and is well worth a view for some handy tips. I shift my time frames down a scale from his but essentiall
  3. Nice little vid presentation on oil and the Canadian fires from Saxo Group. https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/canadian-wildfire-heating-up-wti-crude-hansen-7591750
  4. Article by DailyFX Ilya Spivak "US Dollar May Rise if Fed Comments Point to Tighter Job Market" https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2016/05/09/US-Dollar-May-Rise-if-Fed-Comments-Point-to-Tighter-Job-Market.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr 
  5. With contradicting NFP data, lower NFP number but higher Average Hourly Earnings I'm not expecting any big moves in the USD crosses though maybe some Friday afternoon unwinding of weekly positions. Not seeing any Germany news specials, the bund traders have seen the equities bid and are waiting for it to pass to take advantage of a small time frame inverted head and shoulders pattern on the bund charts.
  6. Yah! Now with price drifting sideways from where it started from probably a good time to finish off the NFP day mantra... Patience, Patience. Panic, Panic. Pub, Pub.
  7. Average Hourly Earnings 2.5%. Actually higher than forecast. Confuses picture re rate hikes and the lower than forecast NFP
  8. Replace 'flambe' with 'data releases'...
  9. NFP guesses. I also will go to the low side (for no particular reason) 175,000.
  10. I love the big data releases, not because I want to predict, but because they often give an excellent opportunity to react. If the large institutions decide they need to reposition they can create trends lasting many hours if not days as they incrementally move price to a new 'fair value area' (remember, they can't just chuck in a monster order in one go). Trying to play the actual data release is death (no matter what some gurus tell you). Everything is against you; the horrendous increase in the spread, the horrendous whipsawing, the horrendous slippage, all mean that even if you are
  11. Market Profile Handbook from CME Group. Excellent resource, good theory, even if not interested in applying. I also notice ProReal Time also do a Market Profile chart but not on the IG version. http://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/marketprofile/handbook.pdf 
  12. Contradiction in the NFP number and Unemployment rate often cause whipsawing. The 3 main numbers to consider in the data release are; NFP expected 200K Unemployment Rate expected to decrease from 5.0% to 4.9% Average Hourly Earnings expected to increase from 2.3% to 2.4% Algos and humans alike usually read them in that order and respond accordingly in that order, If there is contradiction and unexpected numbers there will be whipsawing but the figure that currently sets the longer time frame tone is Average Hourly Earning as this has greater influence on the likelyhood or not of Interes
  13. Hi  I found the original vid again, try; https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjSwMati8PMAhWK1xoKHUOMCdwQhlQINA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2FutfCJLynXmA%3Fa&usg=AFQjCNFJX-WMBLI3ZXUiM9YmPhPOB-0tWw though this does't look right? If not, google tradeciety and there is a link there (see arrow) 
  14. If you want to try something along the same lines but completely different try a Tom Dante periscope, but be warned, not for the faint hearted, both in trading style and presentation and you must have a parent or guardian sitting beside you if you watch it. He does have a long trading history and nearly 700 viewers watching this. I should also point out I don't trade like this but his underlying points are valid. https://www.periscope.tv/w/1DXGybelRDdJM
  15. Hi  , you're right it has gone, not sure why. It may turn up on their web site as they have a list of available tutorials. http://www.tradeciety.com/
  16. More US jobs data coming up at 13:30. Though only tier 2 anything this close to NFP can give the market a kick.
  17. Wow is right, that is a pretty fulsome break down, thanks for the effort and you reiterate and raise good, valid points. A couple of thing occurred to me that you also touched on, one is that the bigger traders can sit back and watch on the higher time frame, they know most retail traders can only afford small stops and therefore are more likely to be playing a smaller time frame chart, the 15 minute is popular (and therefore will always be getting in too early). The big player can afford to wait and watch a short squeeze develop as the break losses momentum and then pile in to reverse it. So
  18. Excellent 8 min vid on how to draw S/R lines and turn them into zones eg. you start from the right side not the left. Great explanation on how and why. From the Tradeciety guys. (took a while to load for some reason?)
  19.  nice piece here by Macro Man linking DX, USD/CAD with a very interesting related aside about traffic jams with no bottleneck. Written this morning. http://macro-man.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/traffic-jam.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed:+MacroMan+(Macro+Man)
  20. I think the EU holiday today is to celebrate 'International Password Day' ... 
  21. Thanks  and good point about false signals, if you look hard enough you will see signals all over the place. So marrying significant levels to significant candle patterns is a good lesson to pick up on. And to consider the way price behaves as it approaches a level, reacts at the level, and then responds gives many clues as to the outcome. I'm sure you noticed I (deliberately) did not mention limit orders, I wanted to help break things down for new traders and my thinking was, new trader having drawn up loads of levels then told to use limit orders, may as well give them a stick of dynami
  22. Dax and Eurostoxx traders, it's a holiday today for Germany, France, Belgium and Netherlands.
  23. Dollar index continues in it's attempt to crawl back into the safety of it's long term range after breaking out to the down side on Friday. Daily and Weekly Chart. 
  24. Ok, I've filled my chart with levels and indicators, now what? On the time frame of your choice there must be a trigger for entry to any trade. The most obvious signs are the candlesticks. If the candlesticks show an immediate reversal pattern (though it may be temporarily) that coincides with a level you have previously signed as a very likely turning point then you have a signal pattern and just need suitable conformation on the next bar for entry The best candlestick signals are: - a pin (Pinocchio) bar (also called hammer, inverted hammer, shooting star, or hanging man depending on co
  25. Hi  good to see you are 'firing' again, any forum always needs regular input from as many angles as possible.
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