THT

Right on time FTSE100 Index (cash)

Tale of 2 charts We have non-conformance in the USA Indices BUT both are displaying corrective overlapping formations SP500 is printing new highs and the Nasdaq is still trying to rally to prev highs Most USA and "maybe" the UK Indices will conform to the Time Cycles at some "degree" (The nasdaq100 is THE chart to watch for the TC's) As you will note in the thread above the Feb TC was pre-warned/forecast whatever you wish to call it - we've had a reaction as can be seen below - next TC is early June Again we should have some sort major or minor reaction to it in the days around it (although out of all the TC's this is the one in a overall major UP trend to react the LEAST badly) but all we can done is wait and see The key is we are aware of the date in advance and ahead of 99.9% of all other traders out there! Remember - the June TC is the harmonic of the BROWN TC lines in a chart shown above - the overall cycle in that chart shown above was a DOWN cycle - the cycle changed from DOWN to UP on the thick brown line of 2016 - so you can't compare like for like now (markets act differently in down and up overall cycles) I know what I am saying is forecasting the markets - I'll do a quick review in May as we'll have more price on the chart by then and it might be in a position to give further clues As usual don't trade if you can't form a logical trading decision, as you're responsible for your own trading results not me. Permission is not granted to replicate this post at all

Anyone noticed that the FTSE100 Index (cash) has sync'd to a 20 trading day Low-Low cycle? Markets do this all the time - anyone monitoring TIME would have been one step ahead of the pack as to expecting turns

I first came across this pattern in Joe DiNapoli's "Trading DiNapoli Levels" book years ago RAILWAY Tracks You want this formation to appear at decent pullbacks, tops or extremes - for it to be really worthwhile and when they show up on WEEKLY charts they can be exceptionally profitable Some don't form perfect patterns - this is because you're viewing face on to a chart and price and time aren't doing that, so you will need to build in some artistic subjective licence if you trade them SP500 Index DAILY chart: Nasdaq Index WEEKLY chart: They appear on weekly timeframes too!!

Oh you can guarantee that once the FCA get involved it changes for the worst - what I'm meaning is have some form of regulation for the providers as it would force them to publish and highlight all the risks much more clearly to punters I remember having a dinner with the head of the FCA and the shadow chancellor back in 2008 ish - problem they have is the decision makers aren't from or on the coal face so they end up making stupid decisions for everyone - don't think that went down too well with them at the time

The regulation will force the providers to do things in the best interests of their customers - I worked for 2 decades in an enforced regulatory environment as a financial adviser - the regulation forces everything to be above board, warnings highlighted multiple times and everything for the benefit of the customer - of which the bigger more trustworthy firms will excel within

Oh I agree with all that - not everyone is that way inclined though and as it's super easy to shove some funds into a trading account and just go, then the providers have to do more in my opinion, rather than collecting a newbies funds as they end up going bust I just think the providers can and should do much much more - I know they won't, but I can fully understand peoples frustrations - I went through the same over 10 years ago

I think that's the point, they shouldn't have differing feeds - it's most likely [any warning/info etc] a tiny foot note on the demo, when it should be plastered clear as day to warn would be newbies I'd be furious if it happened to me - I approached learning from an angle of complete miss-trust of everything I read, looked at or was told until I'd researched and tested things for myself and it served me well, which most people won't enter the trading game from People need to know the games against you from the off rather than being left to work it out for themselves - platforms offering free this and free that have a responsibility to show and highlight all the risks involved, rather than take peoples money and let them figure it out along the way The FCA's forced betting sites to provide educational content to help people win and ease the pain of people losing their accounts / savings etc - either people aren't applying the tuition properly or the tuition pages don't actually work as the failure rate is 76%, but box ticked There are of course some people in life that just cannot be helped and are on self-destruct mode from the off, but not the masses I've been in this game for years and everything is against the newbie - false claims, poor explanation of how spreads, slippage etc works against you, synthetic markets etc etc As long as the FCA sits back and lets it happen nothing will happen and then if the industry was regulated then that would bring in a whole host of issues too

Best way to learn is by real life trading - I've never used a demo account ever - it doesn't represent the real world You're right to be sceptical as this game is full of sharks all taking a slice It is frustrating when bad price data skews spreads, slippage etc - but they are factors in the game of trading that we have to accept and build into our trading plans, routines/methods etc I'm 100% with you though - the demo's should be an exact replica of the real-life accounts, as it is a bit naughty - its a bit like training a runner to run 800 metres and then when race day comes tell them "oh by the way, people will be throwing things at you around the track, we might put a few obstacles in your path too - but try to get the same time or better that you've got in this training bubble"!

I was going to keep this thread specifically for the stock market, but I'll slip this one in for educational purposes - please note the cycles that form in the Stock market are different in times to the commodity markets Everyone that has NOT researched or looked at the markets properly will tell you that the markets are "Random", "It's Time in the Market, NOT Timing the market" etc etc.........BS Right Let me explain: This is the CORN market (Soybean market is VERY VERY Similar) Ultra basic cycle analysis - but shows WHY you should be looking back decades! Within the Corn market there is a 4 year cycle The BLUE circles show the 4 year cycles hitting LOWS every 4 years (not exact 4 yr periods!) AND The PINK circles show the 4 year cycles hitting HIGHS every 4 years (not exact 4yr periods!) As we can see this cycle hits every 4 years, there's a cycle of importance EVERY 2 years throughout this sequence = TRADING OPPORTUNITY!!!!!!!! Now only if it were that simple! There is a slight fly in the ointment - the INVERSION points! As you can see the INVERSIONS cam e in bang on time but instead of being a low or high they inverted to a high or low point! You could still trade these - as all you have to do is identify what the market is doing in the run up to the date For those of you that haven't worked it out, let me show you the opportunities: Blue to Pink cycle period = 2 years - If Blue is a LOW, then prices are going UP for 2 years -that simple! Pink to Blue cycle period = 2 years - If Pink is a HIGH, then prices are going DOWN for 2 years! Notice the cycles are turn points - they do not have to be extreme high/low points - this is important The Inversion points cause some issues and reverse things - but NOT precisely I'm afraid! You should also note that 2018 to 2020 was a L-L cycle, 2018 + 4 years = 2022 AND as Pink 2020 Inversion was a LOW then we expect the 2 year cycle to BLUE will be in 2022 too, which fits with the pattern or 4 yr and 2 yr cycles syncing The question is will BLUE 4 yr cycle be a LOW or an Inversion High point again? Who cares - you can devise trading methods to trade either way! Look at the last PINK Inversion point, it was clear at the beginning of 2020 that is was going to be a LOW - In my How to Win thread, I've shown Gann's secondary reaction as an entry set-up, that formed! Part of this game is KNOWING when in the future turns should happen - I'm showing you the stock markets in this thread, in this post I'm showing you another way to analyse markets As usual don't trade if you can't form a logical trading decision, as you're responsible for your own trading results Permission is not granted to replicate this post at all

Ever wondered how you catch the LOWS like a pro? Let me show you! All text above a chart relates directly to the chart immediately below it BP - showed the secondary reaction the other week - which was a good trade - now I'll show you how to catch it as close to the turn as possible - using INDICATORS! Lets look at the WEEKLY BP chart Great trading set-up appears The entry point at #3 would have been 268.06 Logical stop is 1 penny lower than the low of the bar labelled 3 - WHY? Because if we are catching the turn, this bars low should not be reached, to be ultra safe the bar labelled 2 low is the safest point as that would be the swing low point should this trade work out as planned and as we can see that is exactly what happened Now lets drill down to the DAILY chart We KNOW for a fact that the daily price is going to rise if our analysis of the WEEKLY chart is correct Now those who believe in support and resistance and "supply zones" will tell you the market found more supply when it retraced back to the zone it bounced from a few weeks prior - That might be true, if it interests you, then it could be something you explore In the chart below and the whole of this post this is EXACTLY how I viewed and traded this inside my SIPP As you can see the very next day/bar it was squeaky **** time as it very nearly stopped out - but it didn't - what if it had? then Point C and 1 would have been moved to that bar - remember the WEEKLY higher time-frame should be bottoming out The logic of the trade is catching lows, if we are right the produce many R value returns As you can see the R value was 6-7R if a straight target of the previous swing high was used or you could be still trailing it - choice is yours As in the post prior to this one - you COULD have then pyramided the position when the Gann Secondary Reaction appeared for more R Value! So why did this trade work? We had a reversal down into a major retracement level - a Gann gravity centre which is 50% (This is NOT a Fib level) We had a oversold 2RSI on BOTH (This is KEY) the WEEKLY and DAILY charts - when 2 different time-frames are in agreement price often moves to a decent degree It was quite frankly a high probability turning point, especially with the sideways price consolidation in the days that followed We weren't blindly trading an Indicator - you will often find when the trade set-up is wrong the price high level is NOT exceeded - we used the Indicator to pick out the trade potential, price then had to confirm, unless we would not have taken the trade What about the ADX DI Indicator? - didn't use it! It would trigger positive after we're in the position and confirm the thinking - but when it triggers positive on a weekly chart, you typically get a half decent rally You can apply the same logical trade method at ALL the major retracement levels such as Gann and Fib levels as long as everything is in place

Thanks, appreciated I'll have a gander at oil, thanks for the heads up Have a good weekend too

Oh I'm afraid there are a couple - thanks for your permission to carry on lol

as we can see different UK stock ITV - WEEKLY chart - same formation shows up time after time - just pointed out some of them LONG only

The market can do A LOT in the next few months until the next TC date - as a general basic rule of thumb if the market is falling into a TC then it should halt and rally, vice versa for a rising market into a TC as has been seen in the NASDAQ100 for the Feb 10th TC Listen, any fool can make money from the markets (I was that fool for years lol), millions of them do so passively via buying and holding without a clue as to what is going on in the markets, so you don't need to understand or know anything about TC's at all to be successful in the markets - the purpose of this thread is to SHOW you the markets are not random - it takes geniuses to work out how to time them - Hats off as always to WD GANN and BFC for publishing works that led me down this road OK so lets look at the next TC due 4th June 2021 Look closely and you will SEE that the THICK BROWN date lines are the exact same as the BLUE TC date lines in the 1st chart posted in this thread - This IS the cycle that DRIVES the markets - it IS ABOSLUTELY responsible the UP/DOWN sequence of the market The THIN BROWN TC date lines for internally to the THICK BROWN date lines and they are HARMONICALLY structured - EVERY like for like cycle (down and down, UP and UP etc) will have a very similar FORM visually to all previous like for like cycles - its exactly why the nasdaq100 in 2000-2003 resembled the Dow from 1929-1932 (and onwards!) (same cycle repeating just in a different era) So - we can see in the chart below their influence in the 1998-2016 cycle - this cycle tends to be fairly turbulent in DOWN major cycles, as the period 1998-2016 WAS a DOWN cycle, that cycle changed from down to UP as mentioned previously in Nov 2016 The Internals during an UP cycle as we are in I hesitate to say will not, so I'll say should not be as bad as in the Down cycles and that of 1998-2016, but they could cause significant turning points up or down Remember right throughout an UP cycle the pullbacks and corrections will mostly be minor in the grand scheme of things and they will ALL be quickly and easily recovered, just as 2018 and the "big one" of Feb 2020! I've been asked about 1987 - It's coming in the next few years - will post closer to the time, the dates have been on the chart below since 2015 and that's what the scrubbed out text on the chart mentions You can pay thousands for bad middle of the road technical analysis none of which will show you any of this - I plan to publish all the key cycle dates going forward - there is the 1987 cycle to come, also look at the chart below, eyeball 1994 - imagine KNOWING that was going to be a massive acceleration turning point up into the highs before the whole major cycle stopped and turn downwards - well guess what, those points ONLY occur in an overall UP cycle and we've been in an UP cycle since Nov 2016! That SAME rally is going to happen all over again THIS DECADE Disclaimer - Trade at your own risk and only if you understand a method 100% - THT will not be held responsible for anyone's losses other than his own - posts for information purposes only

Ultra simple - as detailed in this thread many times Market rallies, pulls back causing a SECONDARY REACTION - Again this is a method from over 100 years ago - Gann first published it and then RN Elliott cottoned onto it in the 1940's (EW 2 or B) All winning positions resulted in multi R value returns As mentioned at the start of the thread - change your perception of the market and things become a bit clearer Safe Trading

I think most professional traders have that methodology and mindset its what sets us apart from the rest I don't look at the VIX, as with cycles for you, the VIX isn't of interest to me, done perfectly well without the need for it so far and that won't change going forward

I was just trying to help by saying that the chart you posted was of a down cycle and that its now UP - so that might skew your expectations - it might not but fore warned is fore armed as they say That's what the cycles pick up increased volatility its the exact reason the markets recently corrected - some of them actually work! Yeah I've been a technical trader for years 12 full-time I agree I bet most would be traders have a neg expectancy and don't realise it Yep Elliott Wavers have been calling for 5 of 5 since 1986 - still hasn't come, because it won't

In the cycle we're in there should not be a correction of the magnitude of 2000-03 or 07-09 - the cycles changed from down then to up now there will be corrections but they should be short lived - for visual see 1949-1966 or 1982-2000

Caveat - I DON'T use Elliott Waves The education is on TIME, Use of Swings and use of Indicators Interesting that he shorted the market around the same date as my Time Cycles highlighted a potential turning date - In this instance I would probably have said that his EW count was correct (often its not) then again he's up significantly on his trading account too - using EW so it proves it does work Disclaimer - I Have Roberts Book, I've used many techniques he uses (apart from being a full on Elliott Waver) and I have/use his software as my main charting software

The one thing with the markets is although you can predict WHEN, you can't predict with consistent accuracy the PRICE LEVEL they will rise or fall to As is proven in the post above WELL before the time and INADVANCE I'll do a more complete and fuller review following the next TC date of 4th June 2021 Reaction to the 4th June Date? This TC (Please note TC's of the SAME colour are linked - Different coloured TC's are well as the name suggests - different TC and different degrees) in the past has been very hit and miss, it should cause a reaction but how much and to what degree I can't say The chart below is of the Nasdaq100 Index So far the TC's have a 100% hit rate - I don't want to publish next years chart before 4th June TC has been and gone, as it will mess up the sequence of the thread - to prove that there is no fudging the dates - the 1 and only TC for 2022 is due on and around 4th April (you can compare the dates shown when I publish that chart after June this year to prove no foul play) Kudos to WD GANN and BFC for their works on Time and Time Cycles Disclaimer - Trade at your own risk and only if you understand a method 100% - THT will not be held responsible for anyone's losses other than his own - posts for information purposes only

This is a grey area - I don't even think HMRC know to be honest! The way forward if you make good profits at spread betting is to shove the surplus profits into an ISA and/or SIPP and then trade shares/ETF's through those instruments as they are not liable to capital gains or income tax - they are virtually tax free and as such you have no obligation to report trading profits/losses to HMRC https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim22020 https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim22019

Yeah some do - I could probably write a chapter of a book on it - I'm not here to write a book or explain everything thing about trading and Investing - I'll leave that up to the Individual to explore should they choose to Trading and pulling the trigger is mental - you try trading a method that does not suit your personality and it'll cause issues, hence why your trading style/method etc matters significantly I've already stated that I trade using precision, tight entries, tight stops - thats ME - others might be happy just buying the market at its current place, having a wide stop - that's fine if that suits them You have to trade a method that you're comfortable using and it HAS actually work You find out style with practise - practise means committing real money to the plate - you can trade gazillions in a demo account, real world is totally different Remember trading is a combination of multiple aspects, so you might have the right style in place but may be losing as your expectations of the trade aren't what the market is prepared to give you

Feb trade stopped out - now -2R down Remember this is only an example to show you important messages about the markets - I'm NOT actually trading this method/strategy

No probs - happy to help No-one knows when a trend ends before its clear, hence the need for trailing stops and the like All you need to be is RIGHT some of the time, not all of the time