THT

I really trade! Here is a trade from this week - The Market is an ETF of the Nasdaq100 Index provided by ishares - CNX1 This was a 2 day Swing trade If you've read the above posts then this is a clear DOUBLE BOTTOM following all the rules mentioned in the posts above ENTRY - Entry was actually set for the high of the Inside bar but the market gapped up and opened at the GREEN horizontal line! which was fine As you can see the DB caused a classic W shape if fulfilled - 2RSI in the <25% Oversold zone = 1 high probability trade potential with target of the swing high of the long leg of the W - as you can see price hit that level this afternoon for a healthy return - This provided a 2R return, "IF" (and we have no control over this) I'd of been triggered in at the high of the Inside bar as planned rather than the gapped entry, the R:R was 4R if stop placed at the swing low or 11R if entry was high of the narrow range IB and stop was at the low of it! - Now in this trade - the intention was the 11R trade but the Gap caused a change of plan THIS IS WHY I TRADE BECAUSE OFTEN THESE TRADES COME OFF INTENDED AS PLANNED - this one didn't but it was still a half decent trade To prove the position - I won't be doing this ever again - very NEARLY got the high! You can SCAN the market EVERY DAY for NARROW RANGE bars - and then when they conform to trading method you employ they offer an ultra high probability trading opportunity with ultra high returns

Hi JLZ You need to investigate the company issuing the said ETP's - There's lots of different ones out there, some buy real assets, so use "synthetic" tracking etc - they are 100% legit but you have to be certain they won't go bust Key considerations as you are investing real money into the ETP are: Is the ETP safe in terms of going bust Is you ISA/SIPP/DEALING account provider safe I've traded these products for decades - as long as the ETP provider does not go bust then normal investing/trading risks apply - I've just literally this afternoon taken profits on a Nasdaq100 ETF They came on the scene in the late 90's in the UK and you could track markets not offered by funds at that point - I was in a china ETF in 2000 provided by ishares within my sipp/isa account and was a cheap way of tracking the Chinese market as you didn't have the 5% bid/offer spread and 1% AMC You buy them exactly as you would say BP - If BP goes belly up overnight you're cash is trapped, same would apply here, but as I say if the company is liquid and sound then normal risks apply

Hi I've traded ETF's and ETC's since the early 2000's - Biggest bug bear was quickly finding those products priced in GBP and not USD My charting software has solved this issue Maybe a good post would be to explain the pro's and con's for Leveraged products - holding for long and short term etc and Delta one too

I'll try to be concise: Dent was in 2010 calling for the mother of all stock market crashes - so were Elliott Wave International in fact EWI have been call for a massive collapse since 1986! Some of what he says is accurate - deflation for example - the reason QE has not caused inflation is because it was issued in a deflationary cycle The crash he talks about won't happen - I listened to dent and EWI back in 2010 and I choose to do my own research as other things i was investigating suggested the opposite to what they were both spouting Read my Time Cycles page, it explains the deflationary/inflationary cycles - proven with 220+ years of stock market history behind the reasoning The deflationary cycle he refers to ended late 2016, its now inflationary according to my calcs and research and my prediction is stock market is going upwards until the mid 2030's when it will crash and top out - yet Dent still thinks its in play Up until then we might get a 1987 style crash event but overall the corrections will be modest not massive and they will all be quickly surpassed I don't listen to anyone out there - I trade independently according to my methods so I don't need to be buying and holding and if I'm wrong so be it - it won't affect my trading as the market dictates my positions, not my expectations - since 2010 this has work exceptionally well, where if I'd of followed EWI and Dents forecasts I'd of lost everything in 2010! I've no thoughts on Gold other than it is inflationary hedge - as mentioned on another thread when the stock market is inflationary (which I think started 2017) then price correlation backwards to last time it was inflationary (1982-2000) gold was subdued

Listen Trading is really really hard but the SIMPLEST systems probably work best - in this game being smart or ultra clever is a hindrance I've been EXACTLY where you're at right now - you need to remember ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING has already been thought of, tried and tested - absolutely everything There's one big positive here - at least you're thinking, most don't even do that Re the NEW MOON method - I made the rules up in about 5 seconds - so I have not nor will I back test to see if more optimum stop money management placement would be better - I think over the past 10 years its returned about 5% per annum on average, which is not that good, last year it returned 55% but that was an exceptional one off year By widening the stop some of those stopped out trades would have gone on to be winning trades so messing with the stop placement would have worked yes - to what exact extent i don't know I DO NOT TRADE THE NEW MOON METHOD - I'm only publishing it so that you can see that by GUESSING you can still trade, win and that trading is ALL about the laws of PROBABILITY

January 2021 THT NEW MOON example DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 -35pts 2R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 3600.16 3565.16 35 pts 175 pts 3775.16 -35pts 1R Dec 14th 2020 LONG 3675.27 3640.27 35 pts 175 pts 3850.27 -35pts 0R Jan 13th 2021 LONG 3802.23 3767.23 35 pts 175 pts 3977.23 Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk

Refer to my THT NEW MOON thread which is very very similar - I'm updating that thread next few mins too! All depends if using stops and targets? But YES it would work to some degree

Some of the above is ultra advanced stuff and I bet 99% of people out there aren't aware of it and more to the fact how it's derived - Do not let that stop you, you don't need to know the advanced stuff to trade profitably and consistently I don't 100% understand markets - I can't tell you what price level a market will stop at - I've yet to meet anyone that can say markets going to hit this exact level then reverse x points and then........ It cannot be done exactly and due to that issue trading and Investment becomes best guess and probabilities take control of things In trading if you make a claim, it needs to be backed up and evidenced in a post/article etc in advance of the event - some of that I'm doing in my posts/threads The 1st page of this thread is the KEY part Trading is a long journey and bruising education along the way! Good luck on your journey THT

There's a huge amount written about Fibonacci - The guys at Elliott Wave love it, but misuse it as do most EW'ers - there is no doubt that trading patterns, pullbacks and extensions do conform to fib ratios often (not all the time though!) such as some Elliott Waves, Gartley and Harmonic Patterns Back in the 1920/30's WD Gann wrote about the 50% level being the gravity centre - Please note that the 50% retracement level is NOT a Fib level - Here it is in recent action Expand your thinking - If you are trying to work out the markets and what you know so far is not working, then something else must be happening - If markets were truly random, do you think that they'd land on these numbers so frequently! Nasdaq100 Index DAILY chart below: You can see both plunges/corrections respected the 50% retracement level Chart below is that of the SP500 Index over many years - you can see clearly just how important these 50% retracement levels are on the big/grand scheme of things In this thread I have shown you charts of Time Cycles - I have also published a separate Time Cycle thread for greater detail and I've shown you Gann Angles Piece the Gann angle and Time Cycle charts together, match them up with Nasdaq100 chart shown in this post and notice that if you could have of had the gann angle and the time cycle on your chart months in advance, then your job as a trader would have been to reset the 50% levels after every new high Then when price starts to fall if all 3 come together it offers exceptionally high probability turning points for which you could buy the market or options at or around Obviously this does not happen all the time and the 50% level is sometimes of the range or a set of ranges NOT of the all-time high (those like shown in the 2nd chart happen at certain points and certain time cycles) You don't need to be aware of any of the above to make money from the market - I just like to know and rationalise what the market has done and that helps me to rationalise the most likely next course of action Good luck on your journey THT

The big boys promote stuff to the public and are most likely the professionals providing the supply so be careful of that fact - Even old Warren Buffett bigged up Silver years ago whilst he was dumping his holding! I'm not a fundamental Investor - Here's my thoughts from a slightly differing angle that may help you: EVERY market works out to cycles, I can't work out Golds cycles because it was only freely traded since 1970's and I need decades of price data to accurately pick out the dominant cycles, BUT...... I do have the stock market and UK Bank of England Base Rate price data going back centuries Stock market will be going upwards until 2034, with this it inflationary by nature, this will also drag interest rates upwards too I'm expecting BoE rates to increase to normality (av since 1600 is circa 5.99%) within the next 1-3 years. The reasoning for this is as follows: The stock market is following a certain cycle [not disclosing this] - but it is safe to say that since 2000 the stock market REPEATED the 1929 cycle - In 2012 I satisfied this thinking and confirmed it in 2017 Look at what the BoE did with rates in 1929-1951. The same was expected from 2000-2022 - that HAS happened (if back in 1929-1951 they had thought of QE they'd of done it) Everyone out there has an opinion - the vast majority are simply wrong, so to conclude market will go upwards (USA markets) this will affect the UK markets too to some degree and with that Inflationary direction it should once the int rate cycle ends its deflationary cycle [soon] int rates should head back up to the 5-6% level Depends if the above does happen how it will affect the price of gold I wrote the chart below to a friend - which recent price action sort of contradicts my thinking - at the time I was looking at the chart and comparing it to the stock market cycle which up to 2015 complied perfectly, so the most recent price action is either a one off blow off rally or there's more to the cycles than though - If I had 100 years of price date for freely traded gold I'd be able to work out the dominant cycles exactly, so for the time being for me its just a work in progress to then hand down to my children/grandchildren in a few decades time assuming i live that long lol So in the chart below I was comparing the INFLATIONARY stock market cycle that ran from 1982 to 2000 and then the DEFLATIONARY stock market cycle that ran 2000 to 2017 Hence the lacklustre price action of gold in a stock market and int rate inflationary period and once the deflationary cycle kicks in gold price starts to rise - It "might" not be doing that, it might be complying to something else which with limited historical available price data a reliable or accurate forecast cannot be made DISCLOSURE: I do have an active open short position in this market Hope helps a little

The answer lies as Quackers has pointed out at the PRC site - if its not there Nicholas can build it for you PRC is a sub of PRT and is where all the coding for the built in indicators comes from, PRC also has indicators not on PRT that can be downloaded and imported to PRT for free - it might be there, you'll have to look

Thats what I meant - what you are looking for is available on PRT - trade often enough and its free on IG or £30 mth All you need to do is have the required scan and then you can search whatever timeframe you desire I wasn't referring to usng my scan software, I was just stating that since I only use the scans on the software i use I have not looked at the free stuff for over 10 years, so can't say about whats out there, hence why I referred to PRT as its available on IG for free and I know it with do a simple xover MA scan

Happy New Year and all the best for 2021 I don't do short-term forecasts as the methods I use will work just fine regardless of what direction the market actually go in I do do long term forecasts though! The general market officially turned Inflationary end of 2016 (according to how I view things) for its 16-19 yr cycle, that will drag virtually every asset class upwards with it Funny enough I've never ever traded oil/gas I'll have to dig out the prediction I made about the dow/sp500 5 or so years back - but very simply the 16-19 yr cycle during its UP phase (which commenced Nov 4th 2016) on average gains approx (from memory) 1500% simple growth (ex divis) - I see no reason why this growth phase won't repeat 1000%+ as well Interesting about Interest Rates in the UK - again that cycle is ending and the next one starting so I'd envisage inflationary Int rates going forward People say "Can't believe how long Interest Rates have been low for" - I can the last time this cycle hit was in 1930-1951 which was 21 years of depressed Int rates - I think the events they blamed were the 1929 crash and world war 2 - but BOTH events were a consequence of the underlying cycles! THT

If you use PRT on IG then you can build your own screeners I use the scans on my chosen software so haven't looked at free stuff out there, but it won't be much cop imo

If you go to the PRT website and pro real code you can contact Nicholas who does all the coding - if its available he'll be able to help you for certain

Hello All, Let me take you on a journey of the markets - people say the markets are random (they're NOT), crashes come out of the blue (they DON'T) and it is totally impossible to PREDICT the markets (It IS'NT) We're told buy and hold is best - It is for the fund management industry and to be fair for 95% of traders it probably is correct, but not for all of us Have you ever wondered WHY a market suddenly crashes, rallies or does something unexpected? - I did Now here's my CAVEAT to what I'm about to show you - "It IS possible within a zone to predict the markets in terms of TIME, I believe it is impossible to predict PRICE levels" Also not every Time Cycle causes the market to move significantly - but with a win/hit rate of 85%+ It's pretty **** well good Look and follow the SEQUENCE in the charts below - I won't be revealing the factors that causes the Time Cycles - Just bear in mind I refer ALOT to WD Gann - This is his Law of Vibration at play - Also there's "Cycles within Cycles" WD Gann referred to this as "Wheels within Wheels" in his writings Once you have the sequence you can extrapolate this 500,1000,2000 years into the future too and i bet it will still work then! In the immediate chart below various long-term cycles are shown (There are more but I've not shown them - namely 1974, 1987, the blip in 1990, 2003 and of course 2009) I'm fully aware that there's commercial traders on here - Information will be limited to avoid them ripping it off and selling it! - It happens! REMEMBER the SAME Colour market cycle shown below have been calculated from 1897 and they simply "repeat" - so what you see on the chart are the dates produced from that original calculation There is a 16-19 year stock market cycle that rotates in a UP/DOWN sequence - The BLUE lines are that cycle (its NOT a static/set cycle), within the Blue market cycle the RED Market cycle (different cycle) operates - this either STARTS or ENDS the BLUE market cycle Within the BLUE & RED market cycles are the GREEN and the BLACK market cycles - IF the 16-19 yr market cycle is UP it produces the GREEN cycle if DOWN then the Black cycle is produced IGNORE the PINK cycle Now if the market cycle that connects the 1974 low and the 2009 low was shown, then that cycle is absolutely riddled in Fibonacci - WD Gann produced a course called the "Square of 12" - 12 x 12 = 144 - that particular market cycle conforms exactly to 144 or square of 12 or simply a side of a golden triangle which is 144 degrees opposite Keep telling you the markets respect and work off absolute concrete science principles Now in the chart below you can see I produced that chart in May 2015 - find the LAST RED cycle line date and go see what the markets did on that day and the days that followed Oh and by the way Gann said everything works out in a circle - the platonic solid that the blue lines draw out within a circle is truly amazing Now, we'll have a quick gander at some of the INTERNALS of the 16-18 year cycle You should notice that the START date in the chart below is 4th Nov 2016, in the chart above you'll notice i had it down as 6th Dec 2016 - 1 months difference! Because the market cycles are large this is totally fine ad the market has sync'd from 4th Nov 2016 The 1st cycle from 2016 was due in Dec 2018 (Turquoise Line) and the 2nd cycle Feb 2020 (Pink Line) - BOTH resulted in market turns on or around said times! You will notice that the next occurrence of the Turquoise line arrives in Feb 2021- The market should react around that date to some degree For those still with me - The market cycle that started in Nov 2016 is UP - that is because the cycle in 2000-2016 was DOWN/SIDEWAYS as expected - Overall the market will climb as per 1982-2000 and 1949-1966 upwards over the course of this market cycle, then when it ends in the 2030's the crash will reach the 50% retracement line or thereabouts and stop - but importantly this crash will "come out of the blue" to the trading community! Markets are patterned, they follow the track that the Time Cycle puts down for them - the charts above are for the USA stock markets namely the Nasdaq100 and the SP500 - I've shown the SP500 but the Nasdaq100 will show a closer correlation as its the speculators market of choice What I am attempting to do here is PREDICT the TIMES that the market will increase volatility and some of those times should result in crashes, plunges and rallies of a decent amount Safe Trading - not advice but information - trade at your own risk and don't trade blind dates, they need to be backed up by trading set-ups to confirm THT

December New Moon Trade: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 -35pts 2R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 3600.16 3565.16 35 pts 175 pts 3775.16 -35pts 1R Dec 14th 2020 LONG 3675.27 3640.27 35 pts 175 pts 3850.27 R Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk

Gann's 50% Gravity Centre level in action

Most markets are dominated by very very big players, I've watched the markets for over 20 years and not even governments can manipulate markets (They've openly tried to save their currencies!) If the very very big players in the markets wanted to shift market direction for a short time of course they could - they could join forces and form a cartel to do so, they did this with Libor I think One good thing would be to study the Commitment of Traders reports and Indicators - It show's the commercials vs people like you and I and the positions they hold in history at the turns (the pro's get caught out too!) Everyone knows most people shove a stop under a recent swing low - If markets were truly manipulated then EVERY swing low and swing high would just be blitzed all the time and you'd never have trends, the fact that trends do happen tell you something else is happening My own personal thoughts are that markets are moving to some unknown science based formula that NO-ONE has discovered - I've managed to crack the code of when the big turns will happen in date/Time format but not the all important price aspect and its this that we all make profits or losses from When we trade we slot in to where price is on its journey and because we don't know if a pullback is definitely happening or not it becomes a gamble Take 5 mins to think about this as it will help you to understand why sometimes no-one is able to explain why the market stopped at a certain place, reversed and hit our stops!! "Markets could be running on a 3 or 4 Dimensional format - We're all FORCED to look at price action on a static 2 Dimensional chart - change your perception and things look a bit different

Stopped out - await the new new moon date Closing in on Breakeven - this is what trading is about, we don't know the sequence of wins or losses DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 -35pts 2R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 3600.16 3565.16 35 pts 175 pts 3775.16 -35pts 1R Dec 14th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk

or set-up a scan to do all the hard work for you Nothing is new in the world of trading, its only what you don't know - everything has been looked at, tested and is out there The link below has tested a lot of candlestick patterns + much much more - I've not looked at it in detail for 10 years now so can't comment on its viability: http://thepatternsite.com/

It all depends on how you trade - If you trade candlestick patterns then you need candle sticks shown, if you trade other formations then you need whatever displays those formations best

Yep I could, I prefer bar chart though - although saying that at certain times pin bars are handy to see when they form at some levels

November 2020 entry

You get more "noise" intra-day, that doesn't mean you can't be successful - I personally don't trade anything other than daily charts, predominately because I'm a lazy trader and don't want to be tied to a screen all day, I'm happy to pay fee's - but my holds are for days not months, if I were holding for weeks/months I'd probably trade an ETF in an ISA/SIPP The whole industry is geared up to relieve novice traders of their capital Most people can't use and don't use Indicators right in the first place - if a method works and that includes Indicators then they will work on any timeframe