THT

The R value statement stems from people just randomly buying and selling with no strict money management - people with no set methodology will have small wins, big wins and most likely big losses too - the R value focuses your mind on having a % and a £ value to it hence risk 2% of my account of £10k per trade = £200 or 2% easy peasy you can then set position size, stops etc on this - you would be surprised at how many people do not do this and wonder why they win £50's and then take a £500 loss The method you trade should determine where the stop is placed, some use a moving average others like me swing lows - you need to work out when a SL will not be violated and what conditions violate them A genuine up trend will NOT violate a SL - I think I covered this somewhere in my How to Win thread - again this borders on a bit of advanced knowledge as, as a trend changes degree it can wipe out a SL and continue, but it will also give you the opportunity of rejoining the trade too DAILY NASDAQ100 = Trending upwards - the ticks - only 2 - represent the only times when a prev SL was violated - the 1 vertical line shows a time when a prior SL was violated, but you would NOT have had a stop at that SL if you are using SL/SH's correctly The 2 pullback corrections changed the degree of the previous rally = end of rally the correction was short-lived and thereafter continued to present - again since then NO SL has been violated - it will be when the degree of the market alters/changes again though Obviously the chart below is virtually perfect for trend following - it doesn't always happen like below BUT this is the daily chart of the nas to date so this HAS happened in real-life and the lesson is that no professionals can be seen gunning for stops at SL's If SL's are being run, then it ain't an uptrend per se, it's a corrective market FTSE100 Daily chart: Corrective market = SL's and SH's are "run" It requires a different approach to the above How do you know which market will happen? You don't, it is impossible to know in advance with adds to all the fun and games

You HAVE to remember our brains "might" work and see things different - I want precision, I want to be in a trade near to the high/low depending on trade or at worst within 1 bar of the high/low - your personality might not suit that style! My How To WIN thread pieces lots together- lots My recommended reading list would be in order as they enter my head: Dr Van Tharps books Mark Douglas "Trading in the Zone" John Caters "Master the Trade" Dave Landry "The Laymans guide to trading stocks" Robert Miners "High Probability Trade Strategies" Elliott Wave Original works WD Gann original works Street Smarts by Linda Raschke and Larry Connors - if a good read but not not brilliant Di Napoli Levels by Joe DiNapoli - is ok'ish - the focus is on Fibonacci retracements and extensions - a lot of this book (which is expensive) is contained in a slightly different style in Robert Miners (cheaper) book noted above in #5 I enjoyed reading stuff from Jake Bernstein and Larry Williams too - but I don't use You have to take little nuggets from each book - I'm NOT saying these styles are perfect - sometimes in the books its not the trading method that is valuable its the other casual stuff that's mentioned Take John Carters book - I don't use any of his methods at all - its the mental and practical aspects for me John recently took his trading account to $18million I didn't look how he did it but he trades options and his favourite Indicator is the SQUEEZE Indicator that is in the book My methods come from WD Gann and 2 of Elliott Wave and a few that I've mixed and created myself I'm afraid one the bad things about trading is you have to read and test a lot of the stuff out there to realise it does not work or suit your style, all the while the sharks are happy to take your £ until you fathom it out In my How to Win thread you'll see I use a 2 period RSI Indicator - This is just as good as the Indicator in Miners book and Joe DiNapoli's book - blindly trading this RSI will result in failing, but using it as I recommend at key times, gives you a high probability of winning Thing to remember and you'll ignore this is 95% who try to trade for a living fail - It's hard, its easy to place a trade anyone can do it, 100% of those who end up in the 95% think they'll easily be in the 5% - yet end up in the 95%! EVERYTHING is ultra important from the method to enter, exit and planning In the How to win thread there's a number of keys to success listed

LOL - that would be never as it would involve dealing with idiotic and stupid members of the public - we used to have one of them on this site Everything I have learnt is out there in printed form - It doesn't need to be re-written, repackaged and sold again

Shouldn't happen - If I go to the supermarket and something is marked up for sale @ £X then the supermarket is obliged to sell it at that price, as that is the price they are clearly selling the item for IG's systems are their problem and the 3rd parties that provide the data - pricing errors like this are IG's responsibility - If they can't handle providing accurate prices then they shouldn't offer the market If it were me I'd look into the law around this to make sure IG aren't using your good faith to wriggle out of the commitment of honouring the trade! You opened the trade in good faith, held it in good faith (what if the error was in the opposite direction? I bet they'd not be as quick to say it was an error) and then as with a very healthily profit in good faith you've sold as any intelligent person would have done Yes alarm bells should be ringing for a £98 Investment turning into £31k lol - but that ain't your fault The number of errors and complaints IG are having of late is a little bit worrying too

Yeah sorry - I've included a bit of advanced stuff in there too - mostly to make people THINK - I keep on adding to it as and when and I try to keep it as simple as possible, as I can remember the task at hand as a new would be trader - My personal journey was I became disillusioned by the **** out there, so I just read as much as I could to form my own opinion Bear in mind when reading the thread - I attack the markets from a scientific and as close to precision as possible, some of the posts show that, not saying you need to trade that way as it might not suit your personality and how your brain works I manually trade - purely down to the fact that I had no idea about programming or want to

I don't look too much at comm's as I can't get the price data I require, apart from Gold One thing on Int rates - and its only an observation - the stock market has clearly followed a precise cycle for centuries - from observation and research its my belief that the stock market and by stock market I mean the USA markets (UK had been following suit) is repeating the 1929-1951 cycle, overlay that cycle from 2000 and it's all complied pretty nicely If Int rates follow that 1929-1951 cycle then very soon we should be seeing rising int rates - I'm only observing, I haven't bothered running the int rate cycles as they don't concern me too much

GOLD - same formations/methods - different time frames and slightly different market Chart 1 is WEEKLY spot price Notice the DOUBLE TOP 9 years apart! connected by the horizontal purple line Chart 2 is DAILY - GOLD ETF SGLN Happens all the time if people choose to look properly at charts

Yes but the set-ups on monthly charts can take years to form I prefer WEEKLY and DAILY ATR - I just like to be a % of recent volatility covering a number of swings I posted THT How to WIN as a thread - def worth a read as lots of methods on there that actually work Thing to remember is - there is nothing new in the markets, they still work as they were working 200 years ago, albeit more people trading and Investing, but the SAME formations form now as they did back then - Indicators came in in the 1970's and are just mathematical formulas of past price action, sometimes they work sometimes they don't work as a method - As traders all we are bothered about is making a profit, so we find methods that work and then exploit the hell out of them as they are more than happy for us to lose! and every method that works will not work 100% of the time - so the laws of probability take over - Fr Van Tharp explains this perfectly in his book how to trade your way financial freedom book

It all depends on the method - Depending on what it is it will work, but the market cycle and conditions may affect things For those 3 chart I posted above - the stop I would use is a % of ATR - that will change per market and per time-frame but the overall method of trading still works regardless, you just have to adjust the trade parameters I'm NOT saying that you can just trade a method and it will work - because it needs to be traded in the correct market conditions for it [the method] to work, but if it works, it works as long as its traded in the same market conditions I am happy to explain further as its fairly crucial to understand In those charts above the stop goes 1 penny underneath the last swing low - as the method shown was trading up swings of the markets shown and 1 penny above the swing highs for trading the down swings - the stop would depend on entry to stop positions and as a % of ATR for each market - the METHOD worked, the parameters for stop positions etc is up to the individual trader, but it makes no sense in having a wider stop than shown as a violation of the SL/SH means that the trend has failed and over If using some glorified Indicator to trade from/with then that is when things can become distorted For example stupidly trading every stochastic or RSI or MACD when it becomes oversold or overbought - this methods does work, but only in certain conditions, once you work out those conditions you no longer trade the Indicator on every reversal, as such you've improved the trading method to one that does work and can be traded

As long as its a freely traded market yes - not sure what you mean by adapatations - but the basis for the method works on all freely traded markets and time-frames

Best wishes to your Aunty Janis - I bumped into the wife's boyfriend on his way to the Porsche garage, lovely fella, can exactly why she enjoys his company, sends his regards and mentioned he was keenly anticipating a fantastic ride whilst caressing her curves - not sure if he meant the car or something else If you've read my Time Cycle thread, you'll know that we are literally right smack bang in that time period - with this TC I allow a weeks grace either side of the exact date - If its going to work (there is no guarantee) then yesterdays action could have been the start of it - simply have to wait and see - A pullback of some degree is expected, although I'm edging to think this TC may be a flat date which is rare, but hey ho We have another different TC due early June too which demands respect - I'm planning on doing a piece specifically to it April time once we are clear of this current TC PS - I don't trade TC's blindly, I wait for the market to form a clear trading formation (not yet happened) - although I too have a Put Option active as insurance

I think for spread betting and CFD's forex has tight spreads - I view trading as any market, for me forex is least important

I'm making you think on purpose - I don't apologise for that as if its important to you it'll sink in YES YES YES YES YES YES I have said for years that professional stock market fund managers would show how bad they really are and all those Investors who Invest based on Fundamentals - because the stock market just goes upwards over time - It has to, because of all the money pouring in and business growth etc If the stock market acted like the commodity and forex markets then it would definitely show the men from the boys Commodities and Forex don't do that, they grow and decompose based on other factors - for example the Soybean market jumps up a growth level once every few decades and will trade in a range for x decades, then jump up a growth level, trading sideways etc etc - Forex not enough price data to work out its cycles yet as with gold SP500 Index - What about 8 really good shorting positions in 60 years! - Bias is definitely UP That being said the path of least resistance for most stocks making up the index is up which can be bought and then 50 years of GBPUSD = a fund managers nightmare

Here's - GOLD, GBPEUR and NASDAQ100 Index The METHOD/STRAGEY is to buy the dip in an uptrend and sell the rally in a downtrend as confirmed by establishing the TREND that I detail in my THT HOW TO WIN thread: Funnily enough it seems to work and back up my claim that if a method works, it'll work in ANY market and ANY time-frame - funny that - must be a lucky few years on the market going my way! I won't bother with the intra-day chart - you get the jist Now if the question was/is - "Do all markets behave the SAME?" Then the answer is NO - if the question was "do you need differing techniques in different market cycles?" Then the answer is YES Those weren't the questions though - as you can see BUYING the dip in an uptrend and SELLING the rally in a downtrend works on various markets DIFFERENT strategies are required for DIFFERENT MARKET CYCLE STAGES - such as when it goes FLAT/Sideways etc - but if a method WORKS it will work in ANY market as long as you're trading the right direction

OK I'll bow to your superior knowledge - tell you what, lets test it - you pick the markets - pick 3-5 - also in that pick name a timeframe lower than 1 day too please - Lets see who's right here Also lets have YOUR method too and I'll use that I'll also show you 1 of mine that I've published on this site too

You and only you can figure that out Everything you are doing I was doing and trying to figure out over 10 years ago yep EVERYTHING works at some point, but does it work often enough to be able to trade profitably with/from To answer your original question - the FOREX markets will look different to the stock market, the stock market organically grows (which is why buying and holding works on it) but the FOREX and for that the commodity markets are different markets in terms of their growth and decline - but the same methods will work on all those markets if they work in the markets on daily and lower time frames, weekly timeframes is where it changes If this is of Interest to you - get a chart of the Dow from 1915 to present and then one of say the Soybean or wheat market for the same time frame and notice how they display on a chart - the overall growth of the commodity will be limited as it won't go upwards continually like the stock market because its based on real life prices in the shops - it WILL go through growth and decomposition phases though and range itself But drop down to the daily charts and you'll get the same patterns and formations as you do on the stock market Viewing charts is all about how you view them and the context Just remember only 5% of people trading actually make it work - that means 95% fail and if you're listening to the 95% of people that fail then, well you can work that one out

Feb 2021: DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 -35pts 2R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 3600.16 3565.16 35 pts 175 pts 3775.16 -35pts 1R Dec 14th 2020 LONG 3675.27 3640.27 35 pts 175 pts 3850.27 -35pts 0R Jan 13th 2021 LONG 3802.23 3767.23 35 pts 175 pts 3977.23 -35pts -1R Feb 11th 2021 LONG 3916.40 3881.40 35 pts 175 pts 4091.40 Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk

If a method works - it WILL WORK on ALL MARKETS and ALL TIME-FRAMES The methods that I trade worked over 100 years ago and they are still working to this day, exactly as they did back in the 1920's! I trade FTSE100, FTSE250, Individual FTSE350 stocks, GOLD, Silver, ETFS, ETCS, EURUSD and all my methods work on all those markets If you think your method does not do that then the problem is either you or the method No-one can always read a market - price and time are evolving in 4D, we're forced to view that action on a 2D front on chart

Just focussing on basics.............................. All mentioned in the posts above in this thread 2nd reaction, Double Top, Triple Top, Double bottoms, 2 Higher Lows etc There's a DB not shown (located in between arrow 2 and 3) you'd of been stopped out of this once but it worked 2nd time, also there's a very near 2 Higher Lows in Dec 2020 that formed but didn't trigger Also I think I've mentioned the Inside Swing trade previously - this formed after arrow 3 to the downside I've not highlighted the SHORT 2ndry reaction right in the middle of the chart (Nov 2020) (worked on 2nd attempt) 10 trades set up, 12 entries, 2 losses, 80% win rate on that chart - R value was greater than 3R These methods WORK - I have months ago shown you very basic trading methods that work, they return high R values if you get the risk right too The chart below is of the ETF that tracks physical SILVER (PHSP) Here's a recent Gold short that I made recently: with the returns:

We've got 7 trading days after todays session left until this TC arrives Markets getting nice and volatile in the build up to it - you will see that all the "rational reasoning" for the markets increased volatility around these key dates can be poo pooed as we go forward because I'll publish the dates of the TC's well in advance, so that you can see the TC date published months/years in advance and then the "news" around it This TC due 10th Feb is the EXACT same TC that arrived at the Dec 2018 low - is this significant? Well it's the same TC that's been present at lots of turns for the past 100 years and it was present at the March 6th LOW of 2009 too! Compared to the Feb 2020 TC this one is a tamer TC, but it does move things, this is the TC's 2nd Occurrence since the major TC commenced in Nov 2016 Whatever happens as traders we have a proven TC date very very close - we need to be prepared as we don't know the extent (IF ANY) of any reaction - but to not be alert to the date would be a crime ALREADY in the build up to this TC date the 2nd to LAST sentence (What I am attempting to do here......) from the post above is already true Ignore the candlesticks they "squish" together to fit the chart layout Kudos to WD GANN and BFC for their works in Time and Time Cycles Disclaimer - Trade at your own risk and only if you understand a method 100% - THT will not be held responsible for anyone's losses other than his own - posts for information purposes only

Get your account to £500k then transfer it to another provider who uses a bit more common sense

I'll leave the finer detail to working out the effectiveness to you - you'll soon know if it works or not - all I would say is test test and test it to master it and then you'll know

We're responding to your post - we can't see what you're trying to do, it would be easier to see the method and methodology of what you are trying to achieve then we could most likely say - won't work or try this - we're working blind in giving you our opinions The other thing would be to widen stops

Hello If you've read the thread so far, you should be under no doubt that 1) I trade and 2) I'm good and 3) I know more than the average Joe out there This post is VERY ADVANCED The hardest part of this post will be getting your head around the concept I show - the actual method is all but a few clicks of a mouse on a chart I've got to be careful in what I publish because its free and there are unfortunately rip off sharks out there who will rip off someone else's work and sell it as their own - so this is not complete, there's aspects "missing" I'm afraid All the below is FREELY available because it is all there on the chart - all I'm using is MATHS and price data Ignore the fact that I've talked about Time Cycles in previous posts - Time Cycles do RULE the market, you will know that at the Dec 2018 low and the FEB 2020 high Time cycles were projected and due, so we knew in advance potential change in trends could occur then and it DID! What I'm going to show you exists within and in between of these Time Cycles The chart below shows you Price aspects and also TIME aspects that were projected from the Dec 2018 Time Cycle LOW - notice how PRICE & TIME levels in the grid actually HIT the 2020 LOW too! I have said in previous posts that you NEED to view the markets in a different perspective - this is one of them! Open your mind and just think I do not care what people say about the markets - they operate on a grid system and that grid system is based on the Triangle, Square and Circle - in other words the markets conform to GEOMETRY and GEOMETRIC shapes From the Dec 2018 LOW - it is evident that the first SQUARE ran from the low to 3rd May 2019 (this is the highest CLOSE) before it had its 1st decent correction So we take the number of Trading DAYS in TIME and the price in actual pence and use them to construct out SQUARE (Green Square) - this contains price and also time We then subdivide that square by halving it and it creates 4 smaller squares within the large green square - We then simply copy that square up and over to the right We KNOW that price and TIME are conforming to this SQUARE because price followed the 45 degree angle of the large green square - Gann said "Once Price and Time balance - the trend changes" The trend changed in May 2019 and a ABC correction ensued down to swing point A (Please NOTE - once swing LOW A is in Swing HIGH B could have been projected EXACTLY - not shown and Swing HIGH C hit not only to the DAY but to the PENNY in price too (You need to do another squaring system to obtain that though - not shown) Just look at how price follows the squaring lines Also notice that in March 2020 Price fell to the BLUE line that was a split of the 1st large green original square we used for the past 12 months price and time action - It actually slightly over-ran that price level, this is what WD Gann referred to as "Lost Motion" in his works from the 1930's This is just one method for working out squaring and squares and there is NO way to know in advance whether a market is going to use this method or one of the other squaring methods If you're sat there reading this with an open mind you should be partly blown away by this on many levels - the next chart down should blow you completely away! If all you take away from this - just remember financial markets are NOT random Now the same squaring system/range does not work all the time I'm afraid - so you have to have various methods on the go all the time to see what is syncing - remember I've said in past posts that price and time are dynamic and NOT static - they do I'm afraid "shift" which keeps us all on our toes Chart is Nasdaq100 Index - DAILY chart OK so we have our 1st large square from the Dec 2018 LOW to the May 2019 HIGH - Price then corrects to swing LOW A - This is ALL you need to absolutely NAIL the HIGH at Swing HIGH C (Notes: Swing A is CONFIRMED once a CLOSE happens above the May 2019 swing high) Using another squaring method you'd of known swing low A was the bottom because it landed pretty much bang on 50% price level of that square) anyway, Same chart - look at the OLIVE Horizontal line at Swing HIGH C Now some basic MATHS - A Square has 4 sides, it also has a diagonal line that intersects the corners of those 4 sides - that DIAGONAL is calculated as the square root of 2 which is 1.4142 times the length of a side of the square PRICE swing of the 1st big square (Dec 2018 - May 2019) of 1946.38 Times/multiply this price figure by the square root of 2 (1.4142) = 2752.57 and then project that 2752.57 price figure from the swing LOW A and you get the OLIVE Price level at Swing HIGH C - How amazing is that!!!!!!!!!!!! Please, please, please do not let the fund management guys tell you you cannot time the markets- because you CAN or let anyone tell you the markets are random - they just ain't!

Yes - you obviously can't guarantee it, but I virtually always work to profit targets that are entered on reversals To do this profitably your method has to be spot on