USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
DXY working on snapping a familiar price pattern.
Big test lies ahead on further strength from here.
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: DXY UNDERGOING CHANGE IN BEHAVIOR
This is how I began last week’s USD commentary: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is following a familiar pattern we’ve seen on a few occasions this year – strong rallies that look sustainable but then reverse lower. This pattern appears to be snapping as the support created following t
In this article we take a technical analysis view of how events are currently shaping movements in major Asian indices, the Hang Seng and China A50.
Source: Bloomberg
Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Monday 11 October 2021
EUR/GBP Price, Chart, and Analysis
Interest rate hike bets increase after central bank comments.
EUR/GBP nearing a fresh 18-month low.
The Bank of England may need to hike interest rates earlier than previously expected as UK inflation runs hot, according to two members of the central bank’s rate-setting committee. Speaking to the Yorkshire Post, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said that he is concerned about the current level of inflation.
‘Unfortunately, if you lo
Profits are expected to have grown strongly in Q3, but a weaker growth outlook and higher costs are posing a risk to future earnings.
Source: Bloomberg
Indices Shares United States Inflation Bloomberg L.P. S&P 500
Lumber spike highlights potential for a bullish resurgence, with seasonality pointing towards a strong Q4.
Source: Bloomberg
Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 08 October 2021
USD, NFP Price Analysis & News:
US NFP 194k vs 500k, Prior Reading Revised Higher.
Unemployment Rate Drop Overstated by Labour Force Dip.
Fed Tapering a Done Deal.
NFP MIXED AS HEADLINE MISSES, REVISION UPGRADED, WHILE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BEATS
A much weaker than expected NFP headline at 194k vs 500k, while the prior reading had been revised higher to 366k from 235k. The unemployment rate fell 0.4ppts to 4.8% dropping below expectations of 5.1%. Now while the
US DOLLAR PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS
US 10-year bond yields print a fresh four-month high.
US Jobs Report a make-or-break for further US dollar strength.
The yield on the benchmark US Treasury 10-year is popping higher, aided by news overnight that the US Senate voted to extend the debt ceiling until December, pushing back market fears of a government default. The Senate agreed by a vote of 50-48 to increase the debt limit by $480 billion to enable the government to pay it
GOLD, XAU/USD, TREASURY YIELDS, NON-FARM PAYROLLS, US DOLLAR, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices fall, Treasury yields rise on interim US debt ceiling solution.
An upbeat non-farm payrolls report risks accelerating XAU/USD losses.
Falling Wedge breakout losing momentum, retail traders reduce short bets.
Gold prices aimed cautiously lower over the past 24 hours. The anti-fiat yellow metal was left vulnerable as the ongoing rise in Treasury yields
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11th October 2021. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted o
Friday’s US jobs report unlikely to bring a sharp rebound, with businesses struggling to find the right people amid record high level of vacancies.
Source: Bloomberg
Shares Unemployment Employment United States Payroll Technical analysis
S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 Outlook.
China’s So-Called Lehman Moment.
Global Tapering Underway.
Throughout the third quarter, there had been somewhat of a reversal in the reflation trade as concerns over the peak in the global growth lingered, alongside the continued spread of the Delta variant. However, despite this, life after lockdown continues as vaccination rates across the globe pick up and while the latest concerns stemming from China have catalysed m
FTSE 100 PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
Several factors are lifting stock markets near term, including hopes that an agreement on the US debt ceiling is close, Putin’s offer to stabilize the world energy markets and a potential meeting of Xi and Biden.
However, worries about China persist, and this rally may just reflect some short-covering and dip-buying before stock markets head lower again.
FTSE 100 RALLY MAY NOT LAST LONG
World stock markets, including London’s,
Analysts say these five LSE-listed stocks are among the ones to watch this month. Here are their insights.
Source: Bloomberg
These five London-listed equitie
U.S. DOLLAR ANALYSIS
568K ADP print favors further dollar gains.
Higher yields giving impetus to further dollar upside.
Focus shifts to Friday’s NFP data.
DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
ADP SURPASSES EXPECTATIONS
The ADP employment change data for September hit 568K, significantly exceeding forecasts. Leading up to the ADP announcement, the U.S. dollar index lessened slightly as markets awaited the data print but quickly regained its upside momentum. A
NZD, GBP ANALYSIS AND NEWS
RBNZ Hikes Rates for the First Time in 7yrs, NZD Underperforms
The Pound is Likely to be Another Victim of Aggressive Tightening Bets
RBNZ HIKES RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 7YRS
Overnight, the RBNZ raised interest rates by 25bps to 0.75%, marking the first hike in 7-years. The Bank also signalled that further withdrawal of stimulus will be needed. However, the initial move higher in the Kiwi had been quickly pared with the currency subsequen
CANADIAN DOLLAR, USD/CAD, US DOLLAR, INFLATION, US YIELDS - TALKING POINTS:
The Canadian Dollar was overwhelmed by US yields despite sky-high crude oil.
APAC equities lost ground as inflationary fears from energy markets grow.
USD stronger, including against commodity currencies. Where to for USD/CAD?
The Canadian Dollar retreated today as the US Dollar found support, with yields moving aggressively higher on inflationary fears. The energy surge continues, wi
BRITISH POUND, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING - TALKING POINTS:
Retail traders increasingly bet that the British Pound may weaken.
Contrarian signals hint that GBP/USD and GBP/JPY could rise.
Sterling rectangle breakout struggles, GBP/JPY facing triangle.
According to IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), retail investors are increasingly betting that the British Pound may weaken against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. IGCS can at times
S&P 500 AND DOW JONES TALKING POINTS:
S&P 500 and Dow Jones rally and wipe out most of Monday’s losses
Tech and financial-oriented companies lead the charge higher
Traders now await the September NFP report, which could influence the FOMC’s decision on when to taper assets purchases
Most read: Nasdaq 100 Nears One-Year Channel Support, Key Technical Levels to Watch
After a broad-based sell-off at the start of the week, U.S. stoc
Manufacturing under pressure, with the DAX and EUR/GBP looking likely to underperform going forward.
Source: Bloomberg
Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 October 2021. IG
Euro at risk as ma
GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
After its decent rally since the end of last month, GBP/USD now looks likely to fall back, although it could remain around the 1.36 level for a while first.
Talk in the UK media of stagflation persists, and a dire set of new car registration figures will do nothing to counter that narrative.
GBP/USD COULD HOLD STEADY, THEN DROP
GBP/USD is in an interesting position, having rallied from the September 29 low at 1.3412 to around 1.36.
US DOLLAR, CRUDE OIL, AUD/USD, RBA, PBOC, RBNZ - TALKING POINTS:
USD rallied as equities came under pressure amid a tech rout.
RBA delivered as expected, RBNZ ahead may not be clear cut.
Energy in hot demand. What does it mean for USD from here?
The US Dollar gained ground against all the majors on safe-haven buying. The commodity currencies – AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD – lost more ground than others as risk-off sentiment permeated markets.
Crude oil maintain