Indices

[dmedin]

People who actively trade lose money.  People who get paid for their worthless 'analysis' or training get a regular stable income.  That's the difference. 

[dmedin]

63% of clients are short (and they are chronic losers LOL), and it's still above the 20 day SMA (whatever the f*ck that means), so - go long?  Go short?  I haven't the faintest idea, Eileen!  Let's sit this one out shall we, and have a nice cup of tea.  Wheeeee!

[dmedin]

Samwise Gamgee, shall we have a tea party?

[AndrewS]

2 hours ago, dmedin said:

People who actively trade lose money.  People who get paid for their worthless 'analysis' or training get a regular stable income.  That's the difference. 

Not everyone’s experience is the same. I have thought of this interview often when I have seen your comments about trading on shorter time frames and have only just managed to track it down. Interview with Boris Schlossberg (co-creator of DailyFX.com) and a Steven Ickow who did about 250 trades a day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK58oT5GTGE

[dmedin]

23 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

Not everyone’s experience is the same. I have thought of this interview often when I have seen your comments about trading on shorter time frames and have only just managed to track it down. Interview with Boris Schlossberg (co-creator of DailyFX.com) and a Steven Ickow who did about 250 trades a day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK58oT5GTGE

 

A pair of old Tories blowing smoke up their own @rses?

 

Of course IG wants you to trade 250 times a day - they make money from the spreads/commissions.

You're a f*king stupid moron if you actually do trade that much though

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by dmedin

[AndrewS]

9 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

A pair of old Tories blowing smoke up their own @rses?

 

Of course IG wants you to trade 250 times a day - they make money from the spreads/commissions.

You're a f*king stupid moron if you actually do trade that much though

 

A few things:

1. I am addressing your comment that “People who actively trade lose money” which is not universally the case at all, although many beginners perhaps should avoid scalping.

2. The video is from 2007 which is before IG had an association with DailyFX.com.

3. Steven Ickow was primarily working off the bids and offers displayed on the Level 2 screen for the Nasdaq which provided much better transparency than the specialist book on the NYSE. He also looks at daily and 5 min charts for the Nasdaq, S&P and E-mini Russell futures.

4. In the book he says “I don’t like to buy highs and sell lows. I like to buy pullbacks.” That gives some context to his comment in the interview about not chasing stocks.

5. He does not average down on losers, but does scale out of winners.

6. Now I have been averaging 40 trades a day but if my trade size is 10% of someone who has 4 trades a day the spreads/commissions are the same.

7. The spread on the Dow at the moment is about one twentieth of the ATR of a five minute candle.

  

[Caseynotes]

FTSE and S&P daily charts.

Dax and Dow H1 charts with intraday levels;

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow H1 charts;

[dmedin]

11 hours ago, AndrewS said:

Now I have been averaging 40 trades a day

How does trading 40 times a day in a non-trending market perform for you financially?

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Dax and Dow H1 charts;

And?

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

How does trading 40 times a day in a non-trending market perform for you financially?

probably not too badly, the key is to have set targets, they might be s/r (pivot) based or just points based so you are continually looking for the easy handful and move on rather than sitting and hoping every trade might go to the moon, even these days of big moves price still advances by swinging.

current daily range for dax is around 400 points and dow is twice that so that's a lot of swinging.

[Caseynotes]

9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

And?

and what? current intraday levels of interest. if you're looking for predictions you should try instagram, there's lots of kind hearted souls on there who will give you dead certs for a small consideration.

[dmedin]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

the key is to have set targets, they might be s/r (pivot) based or just points based so you are continually looking for the easy handful

I've never seen an easy handful, but I've seen a big green candlestick turn into one big red candlestick in the next five minute period over and over again

 

[dmedin]

Just now, Caseynotes said:

and what? current intraday levels of interest. if you're looking for predictions you should try instagram, there's lots of kind hearted souls on there who will give you dead certs for a small consideration.

And what?  Same boring old sh!t as DailyFX.  Professional analysts who never trade and produce excessively complicated charts that will prove them 'right' regardless of what actually happens.  Useless.

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I've never seen an easy handful, but I've seen a big green candlestick turn into one big red candlestick in the next five minute period over and over again

 

depends on where and how you look I suppose;

 

[AndrewS]

47 minutes ago, dmedin said:

How does trading 40 times a day in a non-trending market perform for you financially?

Well I may be coming down from 40 trades a day now because I doubt that it is optimal, but I can give a clear example when I was on the wrong side of a trending market and it was a definite improvement.

I had been scalping on the Dax for 4 hours one day and I decided to go for a big swing trade on the Nikkei and sold it. I was wrong and hedged it by opening a long position. For the next 12 hours I was continually opening and closing long hedges ( this was when the spread on the Nikkei was 15 points!). The Nikkei dipped a bit in its early trading session to a point slightly higher than when I went short and I closed the lot and was finally flat.

The trade analytics look like this.

	True P/L	#Trades	#Profit trades	Win rate	Avg profit	Avg loss	P/L ratio	Return rate
Japan 225 Cash (A$1)	AUD309.70	42	33	79%	AUD32.11	AUD-83.34	0.39:1	1.09

 

I estimate that I paid about $700 in spreads. I am not planning to do this again.

[dmedin]

I lost an absolute bomb by not following my own rules, and holding on to a long position.  It all went downhill from there.  For me, trading 40 times a day would be financial suicide.  Indeed, after trading 40 times in day I would probably have no money left to trade the next day.

If you can't do it inter-day, you won't be able to do it intra-day.

Intra-day is mostly white noise.

[dmedin]

Trading during sideways movements = disastrous results.

Markets move sideways at least 80% of the time.

 

Therefore:

At least 80% of the time, trying to trade produces disastrous results.

 

Simple!

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

If you can't do it inter-day, you won't be able to do it intra-day.

Intra-day is mostly white noise.

not true, some people just can't stop messing with a longer duration trade, they are much better off trading shorter time frames. 

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Markets move sideways at least 80% of the time.

yes but if it's moving sideways in a 400 point range of course you can trade it.

[dmedin]

22 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes but if it's moving sideways in a 400 point range of course you can trade it.

You can, with a massively decreased probability of success.

[Caseynotes]

8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

You can, with a massively decreased probability of success.

err, I keep probability stats, that's the whole core of the 'Trade Planning and Testing' thread.

Which reminds me I've got a new post for that thread, standby.

[Caseynotes]

S&P daily looking towards the weekly pivot level after finding support off the monthly chart support 2728 (purple).

[Caseynotes]

S&P just failed to tag the weekly pivot yesterday (as mentioned above), looks to be trying again this morning.

FTSE and S&P daily.

Dax and Dow H1 charts;

[dmedin]

Tried some 'scalping' in demo account.  Lost money.

Better be glued to your screen all the time your trade is open because on a short time frame the trade can turn against you at any minute.  S/R, pivots, market doesn't give a sh!t

[Caseynotes]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Tried some 'scalping' in demo account.  Lost money.

Better be glued to your screen all the time your trade is open because on a short time frame the trade can turn against you at any minute.  S/R, pivots, market doesn't give a sh!t

see the new post in the 'Trade Planning and Testing' thread, I dug the video out just for you 😉

[dmedin]

So the 20 day SMA continues to provide support for most of the major indices.  Nasdaq 100 is now well ahead of its 200 day SM.  I guess my simple buy and hold strategy would have been good to stick to.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow H1 charts;

[dmedin]

A close on a daily basis above the 50 day simple moving average and/or the 50% retracement would be positive but it's still in a downtrend.

According to Josh Mahoney it has completed a 'topping pattern' and is 'doomed' 🤪

[dmedin]

Shame this is just in me demo account toots 😘  Mind you I did lose £80+ quid yesterday in the same account.  Random luck