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JD Sports


dmedin

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I decided to short JD Sports for the following reasons:

1) Long and overextended bull run with declining RSI peaks

2) Increased volume on second failed attempt to break high of 649 - buying pressure exhausted?

3) Increasing volume on descent

4) 10 day SMA below 50 day SMA and the curve of 50 SMA is flattening

5) Candlestick patterns - can see what looks like an inverted green hammer around June 6th and another hammer near 24th

6) Break of up trend line

I am fairly sure the price won't break 649 but I set my stop a bit lower because of the risk/reward ratio.  If it breaks my stop I would take the loss, wait to see if it breaks 649 and if it fails a third time I would go short again.

Pleasingly, PRT confirms the support and resistance lines I had drawn myself previously on the HTML5 version.  :D

 

JD-Daily.thumb.png.f8832549b4f7973814ad5339e98861d2.png

Edited by dmedin
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From my experience with the RSI indicator, once it gets back down to that 30's mark, it tends to then swing back up.

The high volume sell off in that last volume stick and the price drop in the candle could indicate a move to a short position, personally i use the Parabolic SAR with the Macd as my indicators, havent done too much with the Fib charts.

The problem i see with drawing your own lines on the chart is that you can make them any where you want to fit your narrative, which can screw your chart to suit your mind, not your trading plan, so i would be very careful with that.

with out my normal indicators, im going to say its over sold from the RSI and it will move up not down, but i hope for your sake im wrong.

Be interesting to see where it goes, hope u update it later.

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@davidbrister

I will.  For better or for worse :D

I suppose I am fitting things into my narrative because I have a strong gut feeling that it's way overbought.  Anyway, JD Sports also have U.S. business and it will suffer a bit from the current appreciation of GBP vs USD.

 

Edited by dmedin
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11 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@dmedin

That spike looks like a stop hunt, there will be a lot of stops around 600 to 605. Watch-out for a bounce  before it breaks support but a stop hunt can be a signal for the next leg down. 👿

@dmedin

Maybe I should point out, if it's not a stop hunt it may signal a reversal so be sure to watch for that bounce don't be afraid to close out if you don't like what you see. 👿 

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18 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Looks like we are building up for a second assault on 602 - 603.  🙈

 

@dmedin

The point of this chart is simple you sell highs in the Red/Pink and you buy lows in the Blue. Because you entered so late you will have to decide if you want to hold but it's still a sell the high type of market for now.

JD-1-hour.png

Edited by Foxy
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It's looking okay today for JD Sports short.  Got a ways to go but on the right path!  Would like to find a way to remove the open order overlay when taking pics of my chart.  Just for modesty's sake.  :D

Edited by dmedin
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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Can't remember but does it not automatically cut out the personal data stuff on chart Save? see below;

image.png.ae3120b4726d96dbc8f9dffc0d9eab69.png

 

Yeah even when I use the 'Save' option it doesn't remove my order stops/limits and running profit total on the left-hand side.  Can't seem to find a way to turn it off!

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6 hours ago, dmedin said:

It's looking okay today for JD Sports short.  Got a ways to go but on the right path!  Would like to find a way to remove the open order overlay when taking pics of my chart.  Just for modesty's sake.  :D

@dmedin

Yep & Ocado is moving in the right direction. I guess the smarty pants with £300,000 of JD wished he knew what you knew now. Ha Ha Feels good to be right. Like I said yesterday don't beet yourself up to quickly just follow the charts your not doing so badly. 

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It looks like it's trading in a range, but a range that is 'one leg lower' than the previous range, which was 602 - 640 or so.  Now it looks like it will trade a range of 569 - 600.

Edited by dmedin
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Strongly bullish weekly signal.  I'm now looking to get out and maybe consider going long if it breaks the high.

Lessons learned

* Wait for stronger signals on the weekly and monthly charts!!!

* Remember to check company announcements - d'oh!  I did not realize they had a trading release this week.

JD-Weekly.thumb.png.5169b8d7498b0936a74845fb3b33783f.png

Edited by dmedin
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On 03/07/2019 at 18:12, dmedin said:

Ouch!  Looks like it might actually be a better idea to go long at this point.   Let's see what happens tomorrow, and if it breaks 635.   😱

@dmedin

Take a look at the daily chart, I would suggest holding off on going long until you have a clear breakout but of-course it's your choice. You should have either closed out or opened a hedge on your trade after you saw strong support at £576 and the averages turning up but if you didn't you will have to be careful you don't start compounding you errors, it's very easy to do that. Also remember if the FTSE goes down it is unlikely that JD will go up so keep an eye on the FTSE. This chart doesn't support a short position but it doesn't support a long position either. At this point it may be worth considering a stop loss just above £636 with a target of £520. That would be called selling resistance and targeting support, it may not work out but it is a professional and valid strategy. The choice is yours, I only say this because I read a post of your that said two heads are better than one. Good Luck. 👿 

 

JD-Daily.png

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