Gold Weekly

[phillo]

On ‎18‎/‎07‎/‎2019 at 20:28, elle said:

quite a move up today

I always look for BOB s to get a revisit    -  Price is  trying

[phillo]

On ‎05‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 11:58, elle said:

I always look for BOB s to get a revisit    -  Price is  trying

Level Hit !!!

[Caseynotes]

Gold flying but may pause here at support turned resistance from the monthly chart.

Monthly and H4 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Adding this to this thread, reproduced from a couple of days ago.

 

[dmedin]

And, guess what?  One small comment from a Trump official sends gold packing.  Total mug's game, this. 

[Caseynotes]

28 minutes ago, dmedin said:

And, guess what?  One small comment from a Trump official sends gold packing.  Total mug's game, this. 

A US president's comments are just as market moving as the Fed's, or red flag data releases, the market prices in new information, that's exactly what's supposed to happen. An awful lot of people are suckered into thinking the market must move in accordance with the lines they've drawn on their chart.

 

[phillo]

4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

A US president's comments are just as market moving as the Fed's, or red flag data releases, the market prices in new information, that's exactly what's supposed to happen. An awful lot of people are suckered into thinking the market must move in accordance with the lines they've drawn on their chart.

 

As I have said before " the Destiny of every trend line is to be broken ". I have discovered that the market doesn't  care about my lines  & sometimes seems to go out of it's way to break them ! Accepting that I can be wrong & knowing when I'm wrong is all part of the "game" 

[phillo]

On ‎05‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 11:58, elle said:

I always look for BOB s to get a revisit    -  Price is  trying

 

[dmedin]

22 minutes ago, elle said:

As I have said before " the Destiny of every trend line is to be broken ". I have discovered that the market doesn't  care about my lines  & sometimes seems to go out of it's way to break them ! Accepting that I can be wrong & knowing when I'm wrong is all part of the "game" 

 

Why bother drawing lines at all? 

Do they help in making better trades? 

Is it possible to make technically 'good' trades and yet still lose money? 

If so, is TA any better than tossing a coin or kissing the dice for good luck before throwing them?

Why would anyone sane day trade with real money?

[StormChaser]

If you want to make money drawing lines, start a road marking business.

Every line someone draws on a chart is subjective and therefore mainly random.  Every indicator has multiple parameters and they are all of lagging, subjective, and random.   If there is one indicator worth putting on a chart it is probably P/S/R.  Other than that, the thing you need to look at is price action and momentum.

Simple question.  You place a trade with equal R:R (less spread) but you have the (local) direction right?  You win or lose?  Did RSI help with that?  Doubtful.

[StormChaser]

"Is it possible to make technically 'good' trades and yet still lose money?"

Yes, entirely possible.  Everything about trading is about taking the losses with the wins.  The goal is that the latter exceed the former.

This is about Alpha (Edge) and R:R.  If you have positive Alpha and Equal (or better) R:R you should make money with minimal draw down.  Here's the crunch.  Nobody is ever going to hand you positive Alpha.  You have to learn/earn it.

You could try to buy training but 99% of people selling training are people who can't trade so ...  one of the things you often see with sold systems is they have large draw-down.  That is not in the desirable feature set of a good system.  It suggests curve fitting in machine learning approaches.

I'll give you a tip though.  The market is BIG.  Even among those machines and algorithms there are still /multiple/ edges.

You might consider doing nothing, and punting for pips per day, or really learning something and putting together a plan for getting 10% annually and possibly compounding.

If it takes 7 years of study in a college, with experts, to become a doctor and earn a six figure salary, how long do you think it will take to become an expert trader with no help whatsoever.  Is the money sitting out there just waiting for you to take it?

[dmedin]

27 minutes ago, StormChaser said:

If it takes 7 years of study in a college, with experts, to become a doctor and earn a six figure salary, how long do you think it will take to become an expert trader with no help whatsoever.  Is the money sitting out there just waiting for you to take it?

 

If I go to medical school and study and work hard I know that at the end of seven years I have a future career as a doctor and a very decent salary.  That's a guaranteed payoff for seven years of total dedication to my profession.  I might fail my exams, or experience other difficulties and not make it, but I have an incentive to keep trying because I will definitely get a reward at the end of it.

Even if someone doesn't have a day job and can afford to dedicate themselves to trading, they aren't guaranteed anything.  They might even lose money.  Who is going to give total dedication to something that not only will not guarantee an income but might go wrong and lose them money?

The doctor will probably make more money from buying index funds or picking high dividend stocks and holding on to them over a number of years than a day trader will ever make from his three-monitor setup and minute-by-minute candlesticks.

As you said, most people who are selling training don't actively trade.  There's a reason for that.  It's because anyone and everyone will give up day trading instantly if they can make a stable income instead.

Total mug's game.  Addictive though.

 

Edited August 13, 2019 by dmedin

[StormChaser]

The reason you won't succeed is because your attitude is defeatist from the outset.  You've already packed it in and determined you cannot succeed.  You cannot succeed at betting.  If you treat this as a business, you just /might/ have some hope.  You are probably just one of the 90% though, by your own admission.

[StormChaser]

P.S. Who said anyone needs to day trade.  One of the fundamental killers is people looking for trades that just aren't there.  If you can cut your way through the intraday noise in foreign exchange or indices, good luck with that.

[StormChaser]

Here's a pretty shoddy simulation with DAX including slippage.  Bank would probably need to be ~ £4k.  Return ~ 20%.  This system works for 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, averaging £1k p/a with a £1/pip bet.  Doesn't work for 2011.   Five out of six isn't bad (it's a winning proposition on that basis).  2011 price action has very special characteristics for which the system could be tuned. Having that information now, rather than as a future live discovery, is very beneficial.  The system meets other ideal characteristics.  Purely order based.  Stateless.  Could be run on the most simple of automated broker platforms.  Executes server side rather than client side so eliminates client latency issues.

People who are trading have their shelves lined with statistics and programming books.  Their TA books are most likely being used as door stops.  Open your mind to the possibilities, and to the fact that it is a difficult hill to climb.

Drawing lines on charts has absolutely no purpose whatsoever.  There are no handouts here.

I'm not running this live, rather working on it.  I have a couple of large open plays in progress and they are not day trades, but multi-year trades, with potentially very large payouts.  I posted on KMR a while back; 30% up in two months with a current price target of 460p (versus 240p current).  AEX still pending.

[Caseynotes]

8 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

Why bother drawing lines at all? 

Do they help in making better trades? 

Is it possible to make technically 'good' trades and yet still lose money? 

If so, is TA any better than tossing a coin or kissing the dice for good luck before throwing them?

Why would anyone sane day trade with real money?

Markets are always about finding fair value, trading is always about finding a market that is searching for fair value, time frames are just a matter of choice. TA may help to determine where that fair value might be found but can't predict fundamental changes that will change where fair value might be found.

[Caseynotes]

Gold hanging on to 1500, support below at 1452 weekly chart resistance turned support (red) and daily chart support at 1479. The recent high 1537 is prior support turned resistance from the monthly chart (green). RSI on the monthly just creeping into overbought.

May react to any news coming from the Jackson Hole symposium over the weekend and US prelim GDP next week.

 

[Caseynotes]

Gold set up to break lower, S&P set up to break higher, just need the catalyst, Fed chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole today at 3pm. 

Daily charts;

[TheGuru12]

When gold moon? 

[Caseynotes]

Gold looking to get a footing in this range bottom from 2011-12 on the monthly chart.

Month and Daily chart.

[Caseynotes]

Gold holds at 1500, may consolidate around here while indices and the Fed decide direction, a 25bp interest rate cut by the Fed is now fully priced in and 4% for 50bp.

Daily chart;

[dmedin]

Is there another opportunity to get in long before it shoots up higher?

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Is there another opportunity to get in long before it shoots up higher?

will it shoot higher? is this an opportunity to get long before it shoots up higher? if the Fed rate cut is 100% priced into US indices has it been fully priced into gold?

[dmedin]

4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

will it shoot higher? is this an opportunity to get long before it shoots up higher? if the Fed rate cut is 100% priced into US indices has it been fully priced into gold?

That's the question

All I want to know is, has it got further to fall? 😺

[Caseynotes]

and it's a good question, just not sure who you could ask to get a definite and 100% accurate answer. As said above I think a period of consolidation is the next most likely play.

[dmedin]

Boo!  Consolidations are boring

[Caseynotes]

 

Anil @anilvohra69

8h

 

I’m told that gold is going up because: - CBs are buying gold - Banks are losing control of paper gold used to hold down physical gold - Loss of confidence in CB - Fiat currency collapse And I thought gold price change was just inverse of real rates (chart). What do I know?

[CharlotteIG]

Jeremy Naylor has done a short piece on Goldman Sachs retains forecasts and where you may find some trading ideas with gold. Gold's down 6% since high earlier on this year. 

 

 

I are not telling you which way to trade, just to keep you informed.