Apple

[Mercury]

Check out my EWT on Apple @cheviot.  I think Apple is a great bell weather for stocks as this is a dominant tech led bull.  The Bears are talking about a so-called "melt-up" occurring on stocks and certainly the big FANG/BAGLE tech stocks have been on a parabolic tear.  But the nature of the price action visible on the charts is not sustainable so a melt up is a decent assessment.  If proved true then the reversal will be fast and furious and if seen across the FANGs then it will influence the entire stocks market.

All time frames currently show rally, rally, rally but the wave 5s are coming in fast now and finally we seem to be getting negative momentum divergence on the 1H chart.  There are huge channel over shoots on all the long term charts, which is what one would expect of a melt up scenario. 

If the single most important tenet of investing is buy low, sell high then surely selling the **** out of Apple is the thing to do?  After a melt up comes the melt down...

 

[cheviot]

6 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Check out my EWT on Apple @cheviot.  I think Apple is a great bell weather for stocks as this is a dominant tech led bull.  The Bears are talking about a so-called "melt-up" occurring on stocks and certainly the big FANG/BAGLE tech stocks have been on a parabolic tear.  But the nature of the price action visible on the charts is not sustainable so a melt up is a decent assessment.  If proved true then the reversal will be fast and furious and if seen across the FANGs then it will influence the entire stocks market.

All time frames currently show rally, rally, rally but the wave 5s are coming in fast now and finally we seem to be getting negative momentum divergence on the 1H chart.  There are huge channel over shoots on all the long term charts, which is what one would expect of a melt up scenario. 

If the single most important tenet of investing is buy low, sell high then surely selling the **** out of Apple is the thing to do?  After a melt up comes the melt down...

 

I agree with your wave count almost exactly......As you ll have seen above...Its ######  ing uncomfortable being short atm.... Its also a Gann angle off wave 3 too and top of Bolly band  Haha ......

[Mercury]

Hello!

[cheviot]

1 minute ago, Mercury said:

Hello!

Mmmm  cook those Apples 

[Mercury]

Just now, cheviot said:

Mmmm  cook those Apples 

I want to see a break back into the 1H channel and ideally any relief rally should stay in the channel.  If we see this and then get further bearish moves then there is a chance this is the end of the melt up.  Long way to go yet...

 

[cheviot]

10 minutes ago, Mercury said:

I want to see a break back into the 1H channel and ideally any relief rally should stay in the channel.  If we see this and then get further bearish moves then there is a chance this is the end of the melt up.  Long way to go yet...

 

Need to take out $306.25 otherwise all it is is a correction within wave 5 ...

[Mercury]

2 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Need to take out $306.25 otherwise all it is is a correction within wave 5 ...

Agreed, that is the first EWT hurdle but of course not conclusive of anything, could just be a larger correction even if it breaks 306.  Still so far Apple blinked right where it was going to if the melt up is over...

[cheviot]

17 hours ago, Mercury said:

Agreed, that is the first EWT hurdle but of course not conclusive of anything, could just be a larger correction even if it breaks 306.  Still so far Apple blinked right where it was going to if the melt up is over...

Satisfactory weekly close,  I d say...Stopped dead on the Gann line and top of hr tramline......iteresting Gann fan line came in last week around $313 if taken off the start up this 5 th wave at $88.50....on a weekly......

[cheviot]

[cheviot]

23 hours ago, Mercury said:

Check out my EWT on Apple @cheviot.  I think Apple is a great bell weather for stocks as this is a dominant tech led bull.  The Bears are talking about a so-called "melt-up" occurring on stocks and certainly the big FANG/BAGLE tech stocks have been on a parabolic tear.  But the nature of the price action visible on the charts is not sustainable so a melt up is a decent assessment.  If proved true then the reversal will be fast and furious and if seen across the FANGs then it will influence the entire stocks market.

All time frames currently show rally, rally, rally but the wave 5s are coming in fast now and finally we seem to be getting negative momentum divergence on the 1H chart.  There are huge channel over shoots on all the long term charts, which is what one would expect of a melt up scenario. 

If the single most important tenet of investing is buy low, sell high then surely selling the **** out of Apple is the thing to do?  After a melt up comes the melt down...

 

RIGHT ...This is my theory ......We are counting big 4 wrong.....It did nt actually end until the spike drop to $186 on 5 th Aug .   IF ...we take big wave 1 as same length as final 5....from $186  we get $311  as shown on my chart.....Wave 4 of 5 is unconventional .....

[Mercury]

6 hours ago, cheviot said:

This is my theory ......We are counting big 4 wrong

Not sure what you are projecting here.  Are you saying the top out should be around 311, which it has exceeded mildly?  If so are you saying that this is the top?  Regarding the unconventional retrace, personally I avoid these set ups as they are too often in error (visible only in hindsight).  I prefer to stick to the conventional EWT and if that fails I have charting and price action triggers and other indicators that will catch a turn even if the EWT is unclear.

[phillo]

On ‎06‎/‎01‎/‎2020 at 21:41, elle said:

maybe

updated

[phillo]

On ‎06‎/‎01‎/‎2020 at 21:41, elle said:

maybe

 

[Mercury]

Let's see if we get a break lower and back into that blue channel after a possible overshoot and bearish 1-2.

[cheviot]

I think this is  part of a 4 th wave correction which might get us to $ 308 before a pull back upwards, then final 5 th wave...then down  $321 maybe .....pre announcement of results  next week...

[Mercury]

Hmm, possible @cheviot.  I mean another leg up is the perennial challenge when labeling EWT real time and I see USDJPY heading up to 11100 to close a gap and hit a key Fib level but what is the Jan 3-8 retrace if not a 3-4?  If it is a 4-3 then we are already in the 5. 

[Mercury]

Possible top out and A-B-C retrace to a failed test of the breakout zone?  A break back into the channel (blue line) is still the key with a lower low and test of the lower channel line around 29,000 being required for any possibility of a sustained drop (correction or otherwise).  31,000 is the first target then 30,480 is important too.

[phillo]

On ‎06‎/‎01‎/‎2020 at 21:41, elle said:

maybe

Definitely & more !

[dmedin]

Any of you actually traded the last couple of days?

This is what they call an indecision point, where anyone trading gets bent over a barrel and taken dry without any lube.

All SB providers want you to drill down into the minute charts and imagine that you can see patterns and trends and place your bets.  But what's good for the goose is not always good for the gander. 

[cheviot]

13 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Any of you actually traded the last couple of days?

Yes chief....Took back some SP short on the 50 day ma...and looking to re-instate in the gap. 3293 ish. 

Trading Apple as well...enjoying getting stuffed stupid !!!!!   

My only consellation is a long term Raff channel and top of a bollinger band seems to be holding it down......Its 92% on the RSI weekly.....I do nt think I ve ever seen any instrument hold at that level before...#

Long a bit of £ to off set my personal disappointment of no rate cut...  

How you getting on ?

[dmedin]

6 hours ago, cheviot said:

How you getting on ?

 

I've been so stupid the last couple of days trading when I shouldn't have.  Lost a little bit but still in the game lol

[cheviot]

7 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

I've been so stupid the last couple of days trading when I shouldn't have.  Lost a little bit but still in the game lol

Yeah its easy to do....Scrambled out of my long £ for £1  profit .....I start making stupid ,mistakes when I think i can walk on water ! A good run can sometimes end in disaster...usually me buying £  or starting to trade the C$ or SWFR  !! 

 I ve had a good few hits on the T Bond , and still short SP 500 and f'''''##ing Apple...although it could nt break top Bolinger band and my long term Raff channel. So may be there s hope yet...😅

[cheviot]

13 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Yeah its easy to do....Scrambled out of my long £ for £1  profit .....I start making stupid ,mistakes when I think i can walk on water ! A good run can sometimes end in disaster...usually me buying £  or starting to trade the C$ or SWFR  !! 

 I ve had a good few hits on the T Bond , and still short SP 500 and f'''''##ing Apple...although it could nt break top Bolinger band and my long term Raff channel. So may be there s hope yet...😅

Had a nice few goes at wheat too...

[Caseynotes]

11 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Had a nice few goes at wheat too...

excellent, we could do with a new wheat thread you should start one up, and best of all I know nothing about the wheat market 😳

[cheviot]

5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

excellent, we could do with a new wheat thread you should start one up, and best of all I know nothing about the wheat market 😳

Sometimes I wish I did nt either.   I trade it for 2 reasons....It diversifies what i m doing in financials (usually) ,  and my background is farming anyway.  

So yes i might start a Beans wheat corn thread....There are a few IG clients who trade it , looking at their client interest board.....

[cheviot]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

excellent, we could do with a new wheat thread you should start one up, and best of all I know nothing about the wheat market 😳

You d be proud of me ...I m bullish about wheat does that count ??  Long wheat short SP Short of  f####ing Apples .....Great mix !   haha 

[dmedin]

Apple still has the 'magic'.  It hasn't turned into BlackBerry, pretending that problems don't exist and refusing to listen.  For example they are releasing a new, cheaper and smaller iPhone.  There is still a big market for reasonably-sized phones.  The new iPads are luscious.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/01/30/apples_iphone_laptops/

[Mercury]

The Apple business is reasonably sound, consumers keep upgrading as tech improves.  There will get hit if there is a recession, as everyone will, this is normal, but they have a mountain of cash so do not have an existential risk like Blackberry and Ericsson before.  The issue is an existential risk for the Apple share price at these levels, that's all.  Share price and soundness of the business are not necessarily in alignment for public companies.  The stock market doesn't always work as a weighing machine, often as a voting machine, hence bubbles and manias.

[Mercury]

Are we there yet?  Not sure.  Won't be until after the fact, like everyone else.  As we come to the last of the big ticket economic data releases and people wonder what a big miss means or hope for a big beat to drive the crazy gang higher I wonder what a near miss would mean.  ISM manufacturing was a decent beat and back above 50, for now, but ISM non manufacturing was mixed, a sign of things to come..?

Apple is at an interesting point now as it looks like a decent shout for a final wave 5 of 5 is there with strong NMD on Weekly and Daily charts.  Tesla has blinked, will probably retrace back up a fair bit before any capitulation but the case for the Top is there.

Can't trade it Short until there is a clear signal to.  Wouldn't trade it Long because of the risk of a fast and major reversal, hmm what's a trader to do..?  Wait for NFP I guess.

[dmedin]

Seems like often the best strategy in trading is - not to trade. 🧐