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cheviot

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Seems like often the best strategy in trading is - not to trade.

Most of the time yes, if you are a longer term swing trader.  You have to wait for the right moments when all your rules are met, likelihood of success is high and risk exposure is low.  Once you are in a trend then buy the dips (or the opposite) is the way to go, leveraging your previous in the money positions.  Then you need to be clear on exit strategy so you don't follow the trend off the cliff edge with the other lemmings.  

Right now I don't see a trade on stock indices for longer term swing traders, only for day traders.  Gold/Silver may offer something Short if Stocks fly, NFP will be a key for that scenario as the reverse may be true.  The only market that seems clear (ish...) is USD up, for now.  Commodities seem to be back into a bear market, the reflation trade being cancelled (or suspended maybe).  I don't trade Copper but the turn I spotted was the right place to go Short if you wanted to.  May get a retest of the breakout point, which could offer another way in to a Short as down seems to be the way of it.  Oil is at a critical point and may go either way; Oil marches to the beat of its own drum.  Softs are also back in bearish territory for the moment.

So if you are a day trader then in and out quick, don't leave a position open over night and certainly not over a weekend.  If you are a long term trader, wait for the fog to clear.  Maybe today with NFP, although possibly not immediately, depends on the print.  Will bad news be bad again or a signal for the Fed to get out the printing press?  Will good news push the melt up to even crazier levels?  Will a mediocre print cause an initial move one way followed by a reversal?  Who know in this crazy market?

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4 hours ago, Mercury said:

Are we there yet?  Not sure.  Won't be until after the fact, like everyone else.  As we come to the last of the big ticket economic data releases and people wonder what a big miss means or hope for a big beat to drive the crazy gang higher I wonder what a near miss would mean.  ISM manufacturing was a decent beat and back above 50, for now, but ISM non manufacturing was mixed, a sign of things to come..?

Apple is at an interesting point now as it looks like a decent shout for a final wave 5 of 5 is there with strong NMD on Weekly and Daily charts.  Tesla has blinked, will probably retrace back up a fair bit before any capitulation but the case for the Top is there.

Can't trade it Short until there is a clear signal to.  Wouldn't trade it Long because of the risk of a fast and major reversal, hmm what's a trader to do..?  Wait for NFP I guess.

AAPL-Weekly.thumb.png.7d2dc07f40be616a21fc90985312ac56.pngAAPL-Weekly.thumb.png.7d2dc07f40be616a21fc90985312ac56.pngAAPL-Weekly.thumb.png.7d2dc07f40be616a21fc90985312ac56.pngAAPL-Daily.thumb.png.57fbd55ee50b0fad0169284e2bc4da46.png

I think we are concluding a 5 thwave traingle , It might hit $333 , but given that it is now ex div , it might not make it that far,,,,expect Tesla style collapse soon ! 

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1 minute ago, cheviot said:

expect Tesla style collapse soon

I guess after such a ramp up it will drop like a stone when it does go.  I expect Tesla to retrace to between 850-900 before the wheels really come off.  Of course I wouldn't bet on it given the current levels of euphoria but that will change for no apparent reason...

TSLA-1-hour.thumb.png.abc0af8b022494a05f78db4df8e05c7b.png

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Ten years of stock market gains for the bulls ... almost makes you wonder if perhaps buy-and-hold people have the right idea, and that 'trading' is a very unprofitable thing to do?

Depends what you hold ....Ford   GE    Connoco Philips  IBM ........All lost out over 10 years,,,,  In reality its the tech sector that are the out and out winners...Everything else is just catching up....

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Guess what the strategy will be after prices fall for a bit :P

Quote

“A lot of advisors and institutions, they jump in the bandwagon because they don’t want to trail,” said vocal Tesla bull Ross Gerber, president and chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki in Santa Monica, California. “If Tesla goes to $1,000 and they don’t own it, what are they going to tell their clients?”

Gerber trimmed his fund’s position in the stock as the company’s valuation soared. He hopes to buy more if the stock falls and said a fair valuation would be around $550.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-tesla-stock-investors/teslas-surge-inspires-fans-to-buy-sceptics-to-dig-in-drives-fear-of-missing-out-idUKKBN2010JC

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4 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

Apple warns of revenue miss due to coronavirus
Apple confirms coronavirus outbreak slowed production and weakened demand in China
Worldwide iPhone supply will be 'temporarily constrained'

 

Temporary, right?

So, what are the things we know?

- Big investors have gone on record as saying that they want to buy at lower prices

- Hits to profits etc not expected to last forever

What do we draw from these conclusions (which are facts, I suppose, and not opinions)?

There will be buying demand after prices fall to a certain level.

What are the trading/investing conclusions?

Buy the dips.

Do we know how long the dips will last?

No.

Therefore, buy and hold.

Save yourself six grand, and don't try to be smart.

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2 hours ago, dmedin said:

Temporary, right?

Why are you assuming its temporary....?  

Cv2019 may have impact now....lower foot fall etc etc....

Medium term....World economy....? Japan,. Indonesia, Italy all struggling with recession.  USA GDP indicating around 1.4 %.  All depends on consumer sentiment.  That changes like the wind.....

Chinese banks were under intense pressure in 2019 with the slowing (6%) Chinese economy then.  Phase 1 was supposed to cure all world ills....Chinese economic growth as estimated by J P Morgan is 3% at best.  

Us/European manufacturing is struggling ....demand for money to invest in real things like plant and machinery is weak....What does 10 year money at 1.55% say to you.....big demand for investment in the real economy (not iphones...thats just add ons) . Int rates say it all....The world economy is on its back and Cv2019 was the last straw.  

So short term .....No I do nt believe so,,,...  Chickens will come home to roost they always do,  

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6 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Why are you assuming its temporary....?  

Cv2019 may have impact now....lower foot fall etc etc....

Medium term....World economy....? Japan,. Indonesia, Italy all struggling with recession.  USA GDP indicating around 1.4 %.  All depends on consumer sentiment.  That changes like the wind.....

Chinese banks were under intense pressure in 2019 with the slowing (6%) Chinese economy then.  Phase 1 was supposed to cure all world ills....Chinese economic growth as estimated by J P Morgan is 3% at best.  

Us/European manufacturing is struggling ....demand for money to invest in real things like plant and machinery is weak....What does 10 year money at 1.55% say to you.....big demand for investment in the real economy (not iphones...thats just add ons) . Int rates say it all....The world economy is on its back and Cv2019 was the last straw.  

So short term .....No I do nt believe so,,,...  Chickens will come home to roost they always do,  

Most of the world's money is in the hands of a few, and they've chosen to use all of it for the purposes of inflating asset prices.  The rest of us are reduced to neo-feudalism, creating relationships of dependence (sometimes in a really servile and degrading way) on others in order to scratch out a living.

The virus will be temporary even if causes recessions all over the globe ... at some point it'll come to an end unless you think it's going to last forever?

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The virus will be temporary even if causes recessions all over the globe ... at some point it'll come to an end unless you think it's going to last forever?

Yes i hope it will be 'temporary', but I believe the effects will be longer lasting than the 'quarter' results that brokers would like you to believe (and therefore buy shares). 

The world economy was under stress prior to Cv2019....Wall st has hung its hat on 2 things....Cheap money from the Fed (they will always bail you out right????) and new trade deals....Phase 1 has been lack lustre ....look at Soyabeans/wheat...agri products to see what is actually happening....The Chinese are nt there any more than they ever were.....

Lets not talk about the US budget deficit.....nobody is,,...but Can Trump really conjure up another tax cut to please Wall st ???  They ll become Italy mark 2....and the crash of 1987 (when I was a young dealer) was caused by 2 things....a US trade deficit out of control and a budget deficit out of control.  Last week the US announced their burgoning Federal deficit.....All fine when the suns out and wall st is sailing along.....But ....drop in demand??  rise in unemployment ???  Something will have to give...wont it?  

The US feel good factor is based on the equity market where it is.  If Wall st fell even 5%....Consumer confidence would stop dead....

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14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Most of the world's money is in the hands of a few, and they've chosen to use all of it for the purposes of inflating asset prices.  The rest of us are reduced to neo-feudalism, creating relationships of dependence (sometimes in a really servile and degrading way) on others in order to scratch out a living.

You should consider being an author on the side. Quite amusing rant. 😄

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