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BINANCE STOPS ACCEPTING NEW UK CLIENTS AND OTHER CRYPTO NEWS As all eyes are focused on the FTX trial currently underway, Cryptocurrency Platform Binance announced that it will stop accepting new users from the UK. This is expected to come into effect on Monday October 16 at 5PM UK Time. The move comes about as Binances local partner in the UK was restricted from approving crypto Ads, a move announced by the FCA last week. The new crypto marketing rules came into effect in the UK on October 8 with firms registered with the FCA allowed to approve their own Ads or have authorized entities approve it for them. The move by Binance does appear to be a temporary one as the company confirmed that it is ”working closely with the FCA to ensure that our users are not harmed by these developments and are looking to find another suitable FCA authorized firm to approve our financial promotions as soon as possible.” The US SEC also missed its deadline to appeal the Grayscale application to convert its Bitcoin Trust Fund into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). This after a court decided the refusal by the SEC was unlawful and urged the Regulator to reconsider. Oct 16, 2023 7:32 PM +02:00 | Zain Vawda, DailyFX Analyst

Bitcoin Spikes to a High of $29900 on False ETF Approval News Oct 16, 2023 7:32 PM +02:00 | Zain Vawda, DailyFX Analyst BITCOIN, CRYPTO KEY POINTS: Fake News Blunder of ETF Approval Sends Bitcoin into a Frenzy. A Large Portion of Gains Have Since Been Wiped Away. Binance to Stop Accepting New UK Clients Today as it Searches for Partner Authorized by the FCA to Approve Ads. Today’s Brief Spike a Sign of the Potential Rally Which Could Unfold Should Spot ETFs be Approved. FAKE BLACKROCK ETF NEWS SENDS BITCOIN SOARING Bitcoin prices have had a volatile start to the US session as cryptocurrency-news platform Cointelegraph broadcasted news that the iShares Bitcoin ETF (BlackRock Group) had been approved. The news saw Bitcoin spike to a session high of $29900 while simultaneously dragging the Crypto markets as a whole higher with Ethereum spiking to around the $1670 mark. Elevate your trading skills and gain a competitive edge. Get your hands on the Bitcoin outlook today for exclusive insights into key market catalysts that should be on every trader's radar. As it turned out the news was fake but with the modern day we live in the news had already spread like wildfire as evidenced by the spike in prices. Cryptotelegraph have come under scrutiny in light of the false news which stated that the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (known as iShares) had been approved which led to the 10%+ spike in BTCUSD to within a whisker of the psychological $30000 mark. First signs that the news was false were delivered by Fox News Reporter Eleanor Terrett who in a tweet revealed that BlackRock confirmed the news as false with the application still under review by the SEC. Cointelegraph have since posted an apology n their X page while promising to provide an update shortly on the manner and reason for the fake news being disseminated. Gauging the market reaction to the news and we can see the impact and volatility brought about by the supposed news. One can only imagine the impact should the SEC actually approve the BlackRock ETF and many other currently under review. This has been discussed in depth my Q4 Bitcoin Forecast. I had been expecting a potential approval to a be significant step for Bitcoin and crypto markets as a whole. Looking at Bitcoin though I believe it opens up the worlds’ largest cryptocurrency to a significant influx on institutional funds in an ever-changing financial landscape. Source: FinancialJuice The Crypto Fear and Greed index remains I neutral territory for now, but I would expect a change here as well should a spot ETF be approved. The mood in crypto has become rather somber in the second half of 2023 and a catalyst such as this may be just what the doctor ordered. BINANCE STOPS ACCEPTING NEW UK CLIENTS AND OTHER CRYPTO NEWS As all eyes are focused on the FTX trial currently underway, Cryptocurrency Platform Binance announced that it will stop accepting new users from the UK. This is expected to come into effect on Monday October 16 at 5PM UK Time. The move comes about as Binances local partner in the UK was restricted from approving crypto Ads, a move announced by the FCA last week. The new crypto marketing rules came into effect in the UK on October 8 with firms registered with the FCA allowed to approve their own Ads or have authorized entities approve it for them. The move by Binance does appear to be a temporary one as the company confirmed that it is ”working closely with the FCA to ensure that our users are not harmed by these developments and are looking to find another suitable FCA authorized firm to approve our financial promotions as soon as possible.” The US SEC also missed its deadline to appeal the Grayscale application to convert its Bitcoin Trust Fund into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). This after a court decided the refusal by the SEC was unlawful and urged the Regulator to reconsider. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is following the perfect breakout, retest and continuation model following a trendline break. Last week saw a death cross formation which at least had some follow through before Bitcoin found support at the 50-day MA resting around the $26500 handle. A daily candle close above the 100 and 200-day MA could help spur on further upside but a break of the $30000 mark is likely to require a catalyst. Rangebound price action may persist over the coming days as market participants await the SEC decision which could be the catalyst needed to push Bitcoin sustainably above the $30000 handle. BTCUSD Daily Chart, October 16, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda

Broad consensus is for the upcoming results to reflect a continued recovery in both Microsoft’s top and bottom-line, in line with the trend over the past two quarters. Source: Bloomberg Shares Microsoft Personal computer Net income MACD United States Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 18 October 2023 11:36 When does Microsoft Corp report earnings? Microsoft Corp is set to release its quarter one (Q1) financial results on 24 October 2023, after market closes. Microsoft’s earnings – what to expect Broad consensus is for the upcoming results to reflect a continued recovery in both Microsoft’s top and bottom-line, in line with the trend over the past two quarters. Current expectations are for Microsoft’s Q1 2024 revenue to increase 8.7% from a year ago to US$54.48 billion. Likewise, earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase 12.8% year-on-year to US$2.65, up significantly from the US$2.35 in Q1 2023. Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin is also expected to improve to 51.9% from the 48.5% a year ago. Historically, Microsoft tends to have a strong track record of beating market expectations. It has beaten top-line estimates on 17 out of 20 previous occasions, while earnings have only fallen short of expectations once (4Q 2022) over the past 20 quarters. Source: Refinitiv Cloud segment on watch to reverse softening growth trend, along with hopes for stabilisation in PC market Year-on-year growth for Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment has been witnessing a slowdown over the past five quarters, with momentum moderating from its initial >25% growth to 14.8% in the previous quarter. The segment has been the crown jewel for Microsoft’s businesses by being its highest-growth division and accounts for 43% of overall revenue. That said, for the upcoming 1Q24 results, expectations are looking for a reversion to stronger growth (estimated 15.5% versus previous 14.8%) for the segment – its first since 3Q 2022. With that, any validation from the numbers may likely fuel optimism for the start of an improving growth trend ahead, while reflecting resilience in corporates’ digital transformation efforts despite uncertain economic conditions. On the other hand, weak consumer demand for personal computers (PCs) may remain a weighing block for the recovery in its personal computing business, with the segment expected to turn in its fourth straight quarter of year-on-year contraction (estimated -3.7%). But with subdued expectations already in place, forward-looking statements may play a greater role in leading sentiments. The International Data Corporation (IDC) projects that global PC shipments may return to growth in 2024, which leaves any positive surprises on watch over coming quarters. Source: Refinitiv Forward-looking statements on vast growth catalysts to be in focus Microsoft has recently received the green light for its US$69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, which will significantly strengthen the company’s presence in the gaming industry. While any boost to its gaming revenue will not be reflected in the upcoming results, investors will be closely watching for any forward-looking guidance on the synergies with its Game Pass subscription service, in line with the company’s vision of focusing on player engagement over console sales. Further, the company’s AI-driven product portfolio will be in focus as well, as the company leverages on its first-mover advantage in generative AI with a vast investment in OpenAI this year (US$10 billion). It is currently in the midst of rolling out its Microsoft 365 AI subscription service, Copilot, with more visibility on its adoption likely to be revealed over coming quarters. The huge user base of 345 million for its Microsoft 365 suite and dominance of its 365 products in the market (>50% market share for office productivity software) may offer vast room for monetisation, which could be a matter of time before the developments make its way into the company’s top and bottom-line. Technical analysis – Share price setting its sight to overcome cloud resistance A bullish divergence displayed on Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart has led to a more than 8% recovery in Microsoft’s share price since the start of the month, as buyers are now attempting to defend its 100-day moving average (MA). The broader upward trend may remain intact for now, with its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) successfully bouncing off the key 50 level over the past month – the midline that separates the bullish and bearish territories. Coupled with an upward break of a near-term trendline resistance and MACD reverting back into positive territory, buyers seem to be in greater control for now. Its share price is now heading towards the upper edge of its Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart at the US$340.00 level, which may serve as immediate resistance to overcome. This level also coincides with its earlier September 2023 high, with any successful move above the cloud potentially leaving its all-time high at the US$366.01 on watch for a retest. Source: IG charts This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Brent crude oil, silver and sugar prices rise further still Outlook on Brent crude oil, silver and sugar amid heightened Middle east tensions. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 October 2023 11:20 Brent crude oil price continues to rise on Middle East tensions Brent crude oil continues its advance amid worries about supply - provoked by heightened tensions in the Middle East - are on investors’ minds. So far a rise to $91.22 per barrel has been seen before the breached June-to-October uptrend line, now because of inverse polarity a resistance line, capped the advance. While this remains the case, the price gap with Tuesday’s high at $90.10 might get filled. More important support can be found between Tuesday’s low and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $88.19 to $88.05. While remaining above the latter, the oil price looks short-term bullish. A rise above $91.22 could engage the $93.00 region ahead of the September highs at $94.97 to $95.33. Source:ProRealTime Silver breaks through downtrend line Silver’s advance off its early October $20.69 per troy ounce low has now taken it to above the August-to-October downtrend line at $22.73 towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.33. Above it lies the late September high at $23.77 which may also get hit this week. Minor support below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.94 can be spotted along the breached August-to-October downtrend line at $22.71. While Tuesday’s low at $22.38 holds, further upside is expected to be in store. Together with the June-to-September lows at $22.30 to $22.12 it offers significant support. Source:ProRealTime Sugar #11 approaches 12-year high Front month sugar futures are once more approaching their 12-year high at 27.85 amid concerns about supply as producing countries go through a draught. On the way up resistance can be spotted at the 22 September high at 27.59 while immediate support comes in between the late September and 9 October highs at 27.06 to 27.15. While last week’s low at 26.13 underpins, the medium-term uptrend is deemed to be intact. Source:ProRealTime

FTSE 100 continues to rise while DAX 40 and S&P 500 range trade Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 October 2023 10:51 FTSE 100 trades in near one-month highs The FTSE 100, which continues to benefit from the higher oil price, is approaching the July and September highs at 7,723 to 7,747 which are expected to act as resistance, at least in the short-term. The rise is seen despite UK inflation for September remaining unchanged at 6.7% versus expectations of a slight decrease to 6.6%, as softer increases in food and furniture prices were offset by a rebound in transport costs. Slips should find support between the October accelerated uptrend line and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,650 to 7,638. While Monday’s low at 7,584 underpins, the current uptrend will remain intact. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 still hovers above Monday’s 15,104 low The DAX 40, which on Monday dipped down to 15,104 amid heightened Middle East tensions, continues to hover above this low amid cautious trading. Provided that the 15,104 low continues to underpin on a daily chart closing basis, Tuesday’s high at 15,305 could be revisited. Above it lies the major 15,455 to 15,575 resistance area which encompasses the July to mid-September lows and last week’s high. A slide through 15,104 would probably lead to the early October low at 14,944 being back on the map. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 is contained by the 4,311 to 4,398 resistance area The S&P 500 continues to trade within its 4,311 to 4,398 resistance area, made up of the late June to August lows, late September high and mid-October high and low, as Q3 earnings season so far seems to surprise to the upside. A rise above 4,398 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,407 would eye the 4,430 early September low. Good support can be spotted between the 4,337 to 4,311 mid-August to Friday’s low. Source: ProRealTime

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Rolls-Royce shares have enjoyed an exceptional 2023 on the FTSE 100. Rising geopolitical tensions could see its defence department make further gains. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Roll-Royce Israel FTSE 100 Small modular reactor Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 October 2023 01:24 Rolls-Royce (LON: RR) shares have enjoyed a stellar year in 2023, rising by 118% year-to-date to 216p. The company was arguably one of the best FTSE 100 stocks to watch this year for a variety of reasons — and CEO Tufan Erginbilgic has, in the eyes of many investors, made huge improvements to what he only recently called a ‘burning platform.’ But for balance, much of Rolls’ improvement is also due to external factors. For example, flying hours have now recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels — and in half-year results, the civil aerospace division accounted for £3.28 billion of total £6.95 billion underlying revenue. But the second-most important division is the defence department — which generated £1.91 billion — and it could be up for more contracts as defence moves up the political agenda in the wake of Ukraine, Israel, and ever increasing Sino-US tensions. On this last point, the geopolitics is beyond complex — Putin visited his ‘dear friend’ Xi yesterday while the US simultaneously further limited Nvidia’s ability to sell chips into China. On the other hand, Apple CEO Tim Cook also made a surprise visit to the country yesterday — the leader of the largest capitalistic business in the world in the heart of the communist state. FTSE 100: Israel-Hamas war updates Covering the most recent developments, hundreds of people have been killed by a strike on the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza City — Hamas is blaming Israel for the strike while the Israeli military says a rocket barrage fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad is to blame. In addition, the UN has noted that a school in Gaza was also hit yesterday, killing at least six people. These latest escalations go beyond the violence of the preceding days because both schools and hospitals are specifically protected under international law except under very specific circumstances. The Israeli military has insisted it’s not targeting civilians but that ‘when we see a Hamas target, we will go after it.’ US President Biden is planning to visit Israel today — and according to Bloomberg sources, is considering a $100 billion funding request to include aid for both Ukraine and Israel. Much of this cash will be used to fund defences and Rolls could well be a beneficiary. Rolls-Royce shares: where next? Half-year results were positive — underlying operating profit came in at £673 million with free cash flow of £356 million reflecting ‘continued end-market growth and focus on commercial optimisation and cost efficiencies across the Group.’ Further, the FTSE 100 operator raised its 2023 guidance for underlying operating profit to between £1.2 billion and £1.4 billion, and free cash flow to £900 million to £1 billion — due to transformation efforts accelerating its ‘financial delivery.’ Even the analysts perhaps most bearish on Rolls — JP Morgan — lifted their sell recommendation in August, admitting that ‘we had been very sceptical that Rolls-Royce would be able to raise its prices so significantly, but it appears we were mistaken.’ Then there’s the small nuclear modular reactors to consider — the UK plans to increase its nuclear power capacity to 24 gigawatts by 2050, representing circa 25% of projected electricity demand, almost double the 14% of today. And Rolls-Royce, having already received some funding from the government which owns a golden share in the company, is the only business whose SMR tech is under review by European regulators. The FTSE 100 company is one of six businesses competing for government contracts — with a winner set to be announced in spring 2024. SMR division CEO Chris Cholerton notes that ‘securing a domestic contract is vitally important to unlock the enormous global export potential of our clean energy technology.’ But it’s worth remembering that Rolls-Royce is still undergoing s cost savings review; yesterday, it announced that it plans to cut another 2,500 roles globally to create a ‘more efficient and effective company.’ For perspective, Rolls already cut 9,000 staff during the pandemic. Analysts suspect that German operations will be hit hardest, and especially the Power Systems operation. For context, in its results the FTSE 100 titan noted that ‘Power Systems margins were lower but are expected to improve in the second half due to our pricing actions.’ Erginbilgic argues that he is ‘building a Rolls-Royce that is fit for the future…a more streamlined and efficient organisation that will deliver for our customers, partners and shareholders.’ The company plans to communicate its strategic review findings and set medium-term financial targets at its Capital Markets Day on 28 November. However, airline flying hours are recovering rapidly; Bank of America analysts think they will recover faster than Rolls has predicted. And if the company wins its SMR bid and also gets more defence sector contracts due to the ever increasing geopolitical volatility, these constant cuts could hamstring the future recovery. But the markets have reacted positively so far. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Both Tesla and Netflix will step into the spotlight this week as they unveil their third-quarter earnings on October 18th after the US market closes. What are the expectations? Source: Bloomberg Shares Tesla, Inc. Netflix Stock Share price Price Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Wednesday 18 October 2023 08:16 Both Tesla and Netflix will step into the spotlight this week as they unveil their third-quarter earnings on October 18th after the US market closes. What are the expectations for them, and which one is more likely to capture the hearts of investors after the earnings announcements? Tesla Q3 earnings expectation Following Tesla’s lower-than-expected third-quarter deliveries published two weeks ago, the market actually doesn't set up high expectations for its impending Q3 results. It is projected that both revenue and earnings per share will be lower than the previous quarter, while revenue is anticipated to 12% higher than the level of Q3,2022. Tesla Q3,2023 Expectation QOQ YOY Revenue $24.22B -3% +12% EPS $0.74 -10% -30% Source: Nasdaq It’s not difficult to notice that Tesla has encountered two primary challenges in the past quarter: slowing production and a shrinking margin. According to the recent update, in Q3, Tesla's total deliveries were 30,000 units less than those in Q2, and its overall production also declined by almost 50,000 units due to a planned reduction in manufacturing output. While the production bottleneck may be viewed as a temporary issue, Tesla's shrinking profit margins could be a long-term pain. After several rounds of price cuts, Tesla's operating margin has declined from double digits a year ago to only 9% now, which is nearing the average margin level for traditional automakers. As such, a pivotal question arises: can Tesla's stock price maintain its premium valuation if its profit margin keeps shrinking? Nonetheless, Tesla might have some good news to share. Investors are eagerly awaiting updates on Tesla's next generation product--the Cybertruck, as well as the development of AI-supported EV line. Overall, the Q3 is not expected to be a record-breaking quarter for Tesla's shareholders. However, the outlook for the EV king in the midst of prevailing headwinds is likely to be the key factor that captures investors' attention. Netflix Q3 earnings expectation 2023 is a year of transformation for Netflix. After a struggling year to grow its subscriber numbers, Netflix made a strategic shift towards revenue diversification through changes in its product offerings, pricing structures, and increase advertising revenue streams. This new strategy has so far proven successful for Netflix. In the previous quarter, Netflix announced a remarkable increase of over 5.9 million new subscribers, far surpassing expectations of 1.82 million. Naturally, one of the vital watch points in the upcoming earnings report is whether Netflix can carry on its strong user growth momentum from Q2 to Q3. In addition, Netflix’s capability to translate the growing subscriber base into revenue and improve its margin will also be closely monitored. Netflix Q3 Expectation QOQ YOY Revenue $8.54B +3% +61% EPS $3.48 +21% +8% Source: Nasdaq Tesla and Netflix Q1&Q2 comparison Now, let's have a look at the actual earnings results of these two companies compared to the expectations over the past two quarters and compare how their share prices have responded on the earnings day. Revenue Q1,2023 Q2,2023 Tesla Miss expectation by 0.43% Beat expectation by 0.81% Netflix Miss expectation by 0.2% Miss expectation by-1.24% EPS Q1,2023 Q2,2023 Tesla Meet expectation Beat expectation by 11.12% Netflix Beat expectation by 0.57% Beat expectation by 15% Stock price change on earnings day Q1,2023 Q2,2023 Tesla -9.8% -5% Netflix -10% -8% Tesla and Netflix technical analysis Despite experiencing three rounds of correction of as much as 29% so far this year, Tesla's stock price has risen by over 130% since early January. As shown in the daily chart, Tesla's stock price is currently on the verge of dropping out from the triangular pattern with the lower boundary formed by the lows from May. In the scenario where the earnings report fails to impress investors, there is a high likelihood that the stock price may dip below the 100-day moving average as well as the five-month-long ascending trendline. In this case, the stock price may likely retest the September low of below $240. Conversely, if the earnings report manages to please shareholders and propels the stock price higher, the immediate target is expected to be in the range of $269 to $275. Netflix's stock price has entered the sliding mode following its second-quarter earnings and has since fallen by 26%. However, Netflix is still up by 20% year to date , outperforming the S&P 500, which has gained 11% so far this year. Looking at the daily chart, the stock price has been trading within a descending trajectory over the past four weeks and has dropped below nearly all moving averages, indicating a bearish-dominated sentiment. Immediate support can be found around $350-$355. On the flip side, if the upcoming earnings report manages to encourage a rebound, buyers may see the opportunity to retest the February high at around $369-$378. Summary Both Tesla and Netflix have faced their fair share of challenges and opportunities. For Tesla, maintaining its growth trajectory and profit margins remains a key concern. On the other hand, Netflix has undergone a transformation in 2023, resulting in better-than-expected user growth in the previous quarter. However, this new strategy is still in its early stages, which may keep investors cautious for its long-term outlook. Furthermore, despite the recent pullbacks, both stocks have seen substantial gains so far this year, which could potentially set a higher bar for the earnings reports to impress their investors. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

What are the best stocks to buy in November 2023? Source: Bloomberg Shares Price Stock Inflation Qinetiq Cisco Piper Terrett | Financial writer, London Global financial markets have already been struggling this year thanks to the higher interest rate environment and inflationary pressures on both sides of the Atlantic. Now, with inflation previously having begun to ease, the unexpected Israel-Hamas war is weighing on markets, injecting geopolitical uncertainty and pushing up oil prices. Investment commentators fear that a prolonged conflict could spark further inflation, especially as the Ukraine war also continues. "The wider risk is that a sustained increase in oil prices would act as a renewed inflationary pressure and further underpin the higher rates for longer message which investors in the equity and bond markets seem to be belatedly coming to terms with,” said Russ Mould, investment director at broker AJ Bell, in a note to investors." On the bright side, in August the UK economy grew marginally by 0.2% instead of contracting as it did in July. So what could be the best cheap stocks to buy in November this year given this uncertain global backdrop? Associated British Foods – a solid buy in the cost of living crisis Associated British Foods, the company behind discount fashion retailer Primark and British Sugar recently unveiled an upbeat trading statement, despite the pressures of inflation and the cost of living crisis. AB Foods says that sales in its retail business are now expected to come in at around £9 billion for the full year – 15% up on figures seen the previous year. Sales in the fourth quarter were strong – up 15% - while like-for-like growth was 8% due to price increases and well-performing ranges. Its new flagship stores are also performing well and the roll out of its new click and collect service has been positive so far. Meanwhile, ABF’s sugar division and ingredients has also seen good growth, thanks to a strong sugar beet harvest. Inflationary cost hikes are beginning to ease and the weaker dollar has also been a boon. What’s more, profitability in its sugar business is expected to improve dramatically next year. At 1941.5p, the shares have risen by 51% this year but, with the cost of living crisis continuing, there is still room for growth. Primark remains a go-to brand for consumers trying to save money in the current straitened financial times. Analysts at broker Royal Bank of Canada currently have a price target of 2,250p on the shares. Associated British Foods posts its full year results on 7 November. Source: Bloomberg Qinetiq – share price dip could be a buying opportunity Shares in hi-tech security provider Qinetiq have dipped by 9% this year to 308p and this could present a buying opportunity. The company’s stock previously had a good run following the outbreak of the Ukraine war and, with the war continuing and security concerns elsewhere in the world, including the Israel-Hamas conflict and tensions in the Taiwan straits, the shares could be worth picking up. Qinetiq is a technological defence firm, offering protection against cyberattacks, virtual training for military personnel and technology for unmanned planes, among other activities. Based in Farnborough, it has contracts in place with the Royal Navy worth £260 million to produce critical systems for its submarines, the UK’s Ministry of Defence and with the US military to produce night vision technology. It is also likely to benefit from the US, UK and Australian Aukus pact, announced earlier this year. The company currently has an order backlog worth £3.1 billion. At the full year results in May, orders were up 41% to a record high of £1.7 billion. Meanwhile, revenues rose 20% to £1.6 billion (from £1.3 billion in 2022), while operating profits increased by 40% to £172.8 million (£123.7 million in 2022) and by 12% on an organic basis. Qinetiq recently bought Avantus in the US and Air Affairs in Australia. The company is targeting £3 billion in revenue by 2027, fuelled partly by acquisitions, while management believe it has an addressable market of £30 billion. Shares in the company look relatively affordable on a price earnings ratio of just 11 times earnings. Analysts at broker Citigroup recently upgraded their price target on the shares to 457p from 454p, while those at Numis think the shares could reach 460p. Cisco Systems – a lowly rated tech stock Cisco Systems’ shares trade on a price earnings ratio of around 17.5 – much lower than many other US technology firms, such as Alphabet and Apple, which tend to trade on PEs of around 30. The shares have risen by 32% this year to $54 but could be set to benefit further from the buzz around artificial intelligence. The networking and cloud computing specialist’s chief executive Chuck Robbins told investors on a recent conference call that AI will “create new growth drivers” for the company, which also provides IT security services. Cisco is currently launching new AI technologies across its collaboration and security portfolios, which Robbins claims will “boost productivity, enhance policy management, and simplify tasks.” Full year revenues rose 11% year-on-year to $57 billion and the company returned $2.8 billion of the $6 billion cash it generated during the period to shareholders. Earnings are forecast, however, to be flat for 2024 with full-year revenues expected to be around $57-$58 billion. Nevertheless, the shares also yield 3% and analysts at broker Tigress recently upgraded their price target on the stock to $76 from $73. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The gold price appears comfortable above US dollar going into Wednesday’s trading session; treasury yields are after making new highs again, but gold appears unfazed by it. Will XAU/USD remain bid? Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities Gold Price Gold as an investment Bond Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Wednesday 18 October 2023 05:07 The gold price is holding the high ground on perceived haven status, despite the return on US government bonds rising to multi-year peaks. The monetary policy-sensitive two-year Treasury note traded at 5.24% overnight for the first time since 2006, after red-hot economic data forced the market to re-examine its outlook for the Federal Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle. US retail sales expanded by 0.7% month-on-month in September, a beat on the 0.3% forecast and slightly stronger than the burgeoning 0.6% for August. Treasury yields raced higher across the curve, with the five and seven-year bonds seeing the largest run-up, adding around 15 basis points each. The benchmark, 10-year note traded within a whisker of the 4.88% seen earlier this month, the highest since 2007. In the aftermath, the US dollar has seen some gains against the sterling, yen and Canadian dollar going into Wednesday’s session and it is mostly steady elsewhere. The aussie dollar is a notable exception where the RBA has signalled a more hawkish stance over the last 24 hours. Technical analysis For gold, the increase in return of a risk-free, or at least a very low-risk, asset like Treasury bonds might normally challenge the price of the precious metal. However, the unnerving geopolitical backdrop evolving in the Middle East may have seen some support for the perceived haven status for the yellow metal. The situation there appears to be continually evolving and a resolution seems a long way off. The conflict saw volatility tick higher as measured by the GVZ index, but it has since eased in the last few days. Treasuries were initially bought at the outbreak of the war, pushing yields lower, but that has since reversed. Looking at the chart below, the rising 10-year Treasury yields and an uptick in the DXY (USD) index are yet to impact the gold price, but it might be worth watching should those markets move abruptly. The GVZ index measures volatility in the gold price in a similar way that the VIX index gauges volatility in the S&P 500. Spot gold, DXY index, US 10-year Treasury and GVZ index Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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With US President Biden planning an Israel visit amid rising Iranian rhetoric, FTSE 100 defence stocks are rising fast. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares FTSE 100 Israel BAE Systems Hamas Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 17 October 2023 15:50 FTSE 100 investors may be concentrating on the oil majors BP and Shell, but that’s just one of many sectors being affected by the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Defence stocks — including BAE Systems and QinetiQ — are rising, while the FTSE 350 Aerospace and Defence ETF is up by 2.5% over the past five days alone. FTSE 100: Israel-Hamas updates As an overview, tensions are still mounting. US President Biden will visit Israel tomorrow to hear the country’s plans for a ground offensive against Hamas, and to press Israel to ‘minimise civilian casualties.’ Meanwhile, Iran has made yet another warning — though this one is more concrete — cautioning it could take ‘pre-emptive action’ against Israel within the next few hours. This could involve an escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. More than 1,300 people in Israel have been killed by Hamas since 7 October, while over 2,700 people have died in retaliatory Israeli strikes. And Reuters has reported that Israel Defence Forces’ Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has called the status of the Gaza Strip after the planned assault a ‘global issue’ for discussion. Meanwhile, Jordan’s King Abdullah II has warned that ‘the whole region is on the brink of falling into the abyss’ and further that the threat of the crisis expanding into regional warfare is ‘real.’ Critically, he has also warned against trying to ‘push’ Palestinian refugees into Jordan or Egypt, calling that a ‘red line.’ The situation on the ground remains dire in Gaza — food, water, fuel, and electricity are all running low, and this issue is being compounded by the movement of people from the north to the south under instructions from the Israeli military. FTSE 100 defence stocks There are five key FTSE defence sector shares being affected — BAE Systems, Rolls Royce, QinetiQ, Babcock International and Serco Group. BAE Systems is perhaps the most popular UK defence sector stock, and is also the largest, with a circa £33 billion market capitalisation. The company derives most of its earnings from fighter jet programmes, including the Eurofighter Typhoon and F-35 Lightning, which it sells to states including the US, UK, and Saudi Arabia. While Rolls-Royce is making headlines for yet more job cuts — and makes the lion’s share of revenue from civil aerospace — Rolls also has a resilient business in defence, making engines to be used in aircraft, military transport systems and navy vessels. Then there’s QinetiQ, which has both military and civilian exposure but is different to many other FTSE defence stocks in that is it tech-focused, with products including advanced materials and robots. Fourth, Babcock has a global diversified client base and specialises in constructing and decommissioning nuclear submarines and power plants. It also offers servicing for military vehicles, alongside general infrastructure maintenance and technical training. Finally, there’s Serco — a bit of an all-rounder. The company provides public services across the defence sector, including operations and base management, ship modernisation, aircraft maintenance, and cyber security. These companies are all seeing increased interest as defence spending continues to ramp up. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and now the Israel-Hamas war have put defence back on top of the political agenda, and the FTSE 100 businesses could see significant new contracts come through soon. For context, BAE Systems shares have risen from circa 600p just before the Ukraine War to 1,075p today. Two weeks ago, the FTSE 100 defence company won a £3.95 billion contract to build a new generation of submarines as part of the Aukus pact between the US, UK, and Australia to provide Australia with nuclear-powered attack submarines by the late 2030s. The pact aims to counter China's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region and Beijing has strongly criticised all three countries over the deal. And with Putin meeting his ‘dear friend’ Xi in China today, likely to discuss this new geopolitical twist, FTSE 100 defence stocks could continue to rise. While de-escalation in the Middle East is still possible, Sino-US tensions continue to tighten. The US has just restricted sales of Nvidia chips to China to limit China's ‘access to advanced semiconductors that could fuel breakthroughs in AI.’ And in the background, Taiwan remains a long-time concern. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

With American Airlines slated to release its Q3 earnings on 19 October, the market braces for impact. From lowered earnings estimates to climbing operational costs and market sentiment, delve into what investors should watch for. Source: Bloomberg Shares Forex Revenue American Airlines Profit Operating margin Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Monday 16 October 2023 18:16 When will American Airlines announce its Q3 earnings? American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) is scheduled to unveil its quarterly financial results on Thursday, 19 October at 10 pm AEDT, prior to the opening bell of the stock market. What does 'The Street' expect from American Airlines' Q3 earnings? After a bullish Q2 outlook, American Airlines has dramatically scaled back its Q3 earnings per share projections from an initial range of $0.85 to $0.95 to a revised estimate of just $0.20 to $0.30. According to a consensus from analysts and brokers polled by Refinitiv as of October 16, 2023, the forthcoming Q3 results are anticipated to be: Revenue: $13.515 billion, marking a modest 0.39% YoY increase Earnings Per Share: $0.25, representing a significant 63.47% YoY decline The airline has faced operational headwinds that have led to this downgrade in earnings forecasts. Key contributing factors include escalating fuel and labour expenses, coupled with muted demand. Notably, the company incurred a $230 million cost in August, settling with the Airline Pilots Association. Source: Bloomberg What should you know? American Airlines is set to unveil its quarterly earnings on October 19, amid a climate of reduced expectations for Q3 performance Both the company and financial analysts have lowered their forecasts for the quarter, attributing the downgrade to a combination of escalating fuel and labor expenses, as well as revised, softer demand projections Despite holding a 'neutral' broker rating, American Airlines' shares are trading below the company's long-term average price target Currently in oversold territory, the share price of American Airlines Group faces bearish prospects in the short to medium term. Q3 2023 financial forecast overview Netflix Inc. has recently provided insight into its financial forecast for the third quarter of 2023. As a prominent player in the entertainment sector, key financial metrics for the company include revenue growth and operating margin, which serves as a measure of profitability. The company aims to accelerate revenue growth, expand operating margins, and generate increasing positive free cash flow. The market is likely to evaluate the forthcoming results against these metrics, as well as subscriber growth. Confidence boost: the role of paid sharing The company has conveyed heightened confidence in its financial outlook, owing to the successful roll-out of paid sharing. This initiative is projected to spur revenue growth in the latter half of 2023 as it is extended to nearly all remaining countries and continues to bolster the company's ad-supported plan. Q3 2023 financial forecast For Q3, the forecast indicates an expected revenue of $8.5 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 7% on both a reported and currency-neutral basis. This represents a minor acceleration from Q2 2023's currency-neutral revenue growth rate of 6%. The revenue upswing in Q3 is anticipated to be propelled by an increase in average paid memberships. Challenges: ARPU and price increases However, the currency-neutral Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is forecasted to remain flat or experience a slight dip year-on-year. This is attributed to the lapping of price hikes implemented in 2022 and the absence of price increases in the company's largest revenue markets since the first half of 2022. Earnings from advertising and additional member features are not yet substantial enough to counterbalance these elements. Subscriber growth: Q3 vs. Q2 In terms of subscriber growth, Q3 2023 paid net additions are expected to align with Q2 2023 figures. The company anticipates a more significant acceleration in revenue growth during Q4 2023, driven by further monetisation of account sharing between households and a steady increase in advertising revenue. Profitability: looking beyond revenue On the profitability front, Netflix projects a Q3 operating income of $1.9 billion, up from $1.5 billion in Q3 2022, and an operating margin of 22%, an increase from 19% in the corresponding period last year. For the full year of 2023, the company is targeting an operating margin of between 18% and 20%, based on forex rates as of 1 January 2023, marking an uptick from 17.8% in FY 2022. Strategic outlook: future growth strategies Netflix is concentrated on fuelling growth and enhancing profitability through leveraged strategies such as paid sharing and advertising. How to trade the American Airlines Q3 2023 results Based on IG's TipRanks Smart Score, American Airlines Group is rated as a 'Hold,' featuring a long-term average price target of $16.17 per share as of October 16, 2023. While public sentiment leans bullish, it's noteworthy that hedge funds have been net sellers of the stock in the past quarter. American Airlines smart score chart Source: IG TipRanks American Airlines echnical analysis From a technical analysis standpoint, the momentum for the short-to-medium term trend is currently bearish, with the stock price testing the critical support level at 11.85. Should the price close below this level, the next downside target would be 10.95. In such a scenario, traders considering a short position might look at a close above 12.85 as a key stop-loss point. The 10.95 mark becomes pivotal if tested, given the lack of substantial historical support until reaching the 9.05 level. For those traders inclined toward a long position, a bounce back from the current oversold status and a closing price above the 12.85 resistance level would be the indicators for potentially establishing new long positions. American Airlines daily chart Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Operating conditions for the American Airlines Group have deteriorated, leading to the downgrade in earnings expectations. Source: Bloomberg Shares American Airlines Price American Airlines Group Technical analysis Market trend Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Monday 16 October 2023 18:16 Key Takeaways: American Airlines is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings results on October 19 The company and analysts have downgraded Q3 earnings expectations Several factors, including rising fuel and labor costs, as well as softer demand assumptions, have contributed to the deterioration of American Airlines' operating conditions. American Airlines has an average broker rating of ‘neutral’ although trades at a discount to the long-term average price target for the company The share price of American Airlines Group is oversold currently, although the short to medium term trends are considered down When are American Airline results expected? American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) is set to release its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, October 19th, before market open. American Airlines earnings preview, what does ‘The Street’ expect? While the American Airlines Group provided an optimistic outlook for third quarter earnings per share of between $0.85 and $0.95 after their Q2 2023 results, these figures have since undergone a sharp downward revision by the company to between +$0.20 and $0.30. A consensus of analyst and broker expectations as per a Refinitiv data poll (as of the 16th of October 2023) suggest the following from the upcoming Q3 results: Revenue $13.515bn (+0.39% year on year) Earnings per share $0.25 (-63.47% year on year) The operating conditions for American Airlines have deteriorated, leading to the downgrade in earnings expectations. Several factors have contributed to this, including rising fuel and labour costs and softer demand assumptions. For example, in August, the company recognized a $230m cost in settling with the Airline Pilots Association. How to trade the American Airlines Q3 2023 results Source: IG TipRanks IG’s TipRanks smartscore (available on the IG platform) suggests that American Airlines Group is a ‘hold’ with a long-term average price target of $16.17 a share, as of the 16th of October 2023. Public sentiment is considered bullish although over the last quarter there has been some net selling of the stock by hedge funds. Source: IG From a technical analysis perspective, the short to medium term trend momentum is down now, with the price now testing the 11.85 support level. A close below this level would suggest 10.95 as short-term downside target from the move. In this scenario, traders who find short entry, might consider using a close above 12.85 as a stop loss consideration for the trade. 10.95 becomes a critical support level should it be tested, as there is not much in the way of historical support thereafter until the 9.05 level. Traders who prefer looking for long entry might instead hope to see a rebound from oversold territory and move / close above the 12.85 resistance level before considering new positions. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

After former CEO Bernard Looney’s exit, BP shares could be ripe for a takeover. Here’s why. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares BP FTSE 100 Big Oil Takeover Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 13 October 2023 BP (LON: BP) shares have fallen by 10.5% over the past five years and sunk from 568p in mid-February 2023 to 499p today. The FTSE 100 oil major is a significant component of the index but could now be a buyout target. As ever, there’s always a bigger fish. BP shares: Q2 results and Looney exit In Q2 earnings, BP’s profits fell sharply by 70% year-over-year to $2.6 billion — missing analyst estimates due to falling oil trading income and refining margins. However, this underperformance was widely mirrored by competitors faced with the same comparators (the immediate aftermath of the start of the Ukraine War). And BP was still able to boost its dividend by 10% to 7.27 cents per share — and it also promised to repurchase $1.5 billion of shares over Q3. But for context, in May the company slowed its quarterly buyback programme from $2.75 billion to $1.75 billion, sending BP’s share price down the most in one day since 2020. Former CEO Bernard Looney enthused that the company’s ‘underlying performance was resilient with good cash delivery - during a period of significant turnaround activity and weaker margins in our refining business.’ But shortly after this mixed set of results, Looney was forced to admit that he had not been ‘fully transparent’ over intimate relationships with employees — and this was followed with allegations that he had promoted women who he had had a relationship with — leading to a shock resignation. January FTSE 100 speculation Earlier this year, Citigroup analysts speculated that Exxon Mobil or Chevron might consider a buyout offer for the FTSE 100 oil major — with a megamerger looking attractive on valuation terms. The analysts argued that the comparatively lower valuations suffered by European oil and gas sector stocks couldn’t be closed organically — that ‘markets are unlikely to close the gap themselves.’ They added ‘we look at the strategic imperative, financial accretion and political headwinds of either of the two US IOCs (Exxon or Chevron) potentially looking to try and acquire one of their key European competitors (BP, Shell or TotalEnergies).’ This was a view shared by M&G head of equities Michael Stiasny, who in January noted that he ‘would not be shocked to see a big name in the oil and gas or mining sectors subject to a bid, with companies like BP trading at a significant discount to their US peers.’ Further to this, BP shares have underperformed during Looney’s tenure — even if this was due to the investment needed for the start of its green strategy. Indeed, Bloomberg data indicates that the FTSE 100 company’s shares rose by 15%, while Shell’s market capitalisation increased by 29% in this time. Much of this lower growth has been laid at BP’s increased focus on the green transition compared to peers — arguably solid long-term investments, but which have left the company trailing the competition. RBC Capital Markets analysts have previously argued that the former CEO sold oil and gas assets (including Alaskan operations) ‘at poor points in the cycle and at relatively low valuations’ in order to fund renewables projects. With Looney out and interim CEO Murray Auchincloss now needing to project calm — including a need to balance BP’s strategic pivot away from greener energy in February with some investor disquiet — Q4 could see the American titans consider a move. Auchincloss argued in Abu Dhabi a few days ago that ‘one person leaving does not change the strategy’ set out in February — but not everybody is convinced. While acquiring the £85 billion company would be difficult even for a supermajor, it’s worth noting that the entire industry is one built on gigantic mergers; BP itself bought Amoco for $48 billion in 1998. Of course, new 2021 takeover rules allow the government to block a buyout on national security grounds — and it’s hard to see the government keen to allow yet another important UK company to leave London without a fight. FTSE 100 oil major takeover? But the macroeconomic picture could make a BP takeover an attractive prospect for the American firms. OPEC+ members Russia and Saudi Arabia have cut production to the end of the year, and the cartel’s secretary general argues that demand could grow by ‘about 2.4 million barrels a day.’ Al Ghais has called underinvestment in the sector ‘dangerous’ — arguing that the industry will need close to $14 trillion of investment by 2045 to support the energy transition. With Brent still trading at elevated levels of circa $84/barrel, BP shares could well be a top FTSE 100 takeover target. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

As Israel considers the path of escalation, both BP shares and Shell shares could send the FTSE 100 higher this week. Source: Bloomberg Indices Israel Hamas Iran Saudi Arabia Israel Defense Forces Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 16 October 2023 01:11 FTSE 100 oil investors may be getting an eerie sense of déjà vu. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — in reality an escalation of pre-existing hostilities — echo the intensifying war between Israel and Hamas. Oil and gas prices shot up in the immediate aftermath, and a similar scenario could be about to play out. Of course, this new escalation is nothing new. Fighting has been ongoing in this corner of the Middle East going as far back as the 1948 Arab Israeli War when Israel was found, or even a millennium further back during the crusades. Accordingly, the caveat with any analysis of the Middle East is that it’s almost impossible to understand every facet of any conflict. Different actors with different motivations proliferate through every country — whether Lebanon, Yemen, Syria — or the power players in the region including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. But the key point, where analysts concur, is that escalation is where the real danger lies. And where investors had hoped that de-escalation would happen over Sunday, the opposite seems to have occurred. FTSE 100: Israel-Hamas War It is not possible to cover all developments, but some of the key issues include: More than 1,400 people were killed by Hamas in Israel when fighters crossed the border, including both soldiers and civilians More than 2,450 people have been killed by Israel’s bombing of Gaza Israeli troops are massing on the Gaza border ahead of an expected ground attack Israel has told 1.1 million Palestinians in North Gaza to evacuate to the south Israel has turned the water back on in southern Gaza The UN argues that Gaza is seeing an ‘unprecedented human catastrophe’ Five US Senate members are in Tel Aviv to meet with top officials, and have been forced to shelter from Hamas rockets US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has asked Israel to avoid harming civilians as much as possible Clearly, there are huge ethical queries over the extent to which Israel can respond to the attacks on its soil — and pressingly, whether this next step could escalate relatively localised fighting into a regional war, backed by multiple proxy agents. For some context, consider the Syrian war — Russia and Iran supported President Bashar al-Assad, while the west and Saudi Arabia supported various rebel groups. Then there’s Yemen, which is under continual conflict as the Saudi Arabia-backed government comes under attack from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. In the milieu, Egypt is still trying to recover from the 2014 military coup, Lebanon remains in economic crisis, and then there’s Iraq, Iran, and Turkey to consider. It’s not hard to see why escalation could become a problem — with Israel also vowing to ‘destroy’ Lebanon if the war spreads. Over the weekend, two members of Hamas and Hezbollah told the Wall Street Journal that the attack had been planned in meetings with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran — and the witnesses claim that the final go-ahead was given by Iran in Beirut last Monday. Iran has denied any involvement. Key actors At present: Israel — Israel Defence Forces (IDF) plan to enter the Gaza Strip, with Lt Gen Herzi Halevi arguing that the ‘responsibility now is to enter Gaza, to go to the places where Hamas is preparing, acting, planning, launching. Attack them everywhere, every commander, every operative, destroy infrastructure’ The US — The Pentagon has ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean near Israel to deter Iran or Hezbollah from joining the Israel-Hamas conflict. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan has warned that ‘there is a risk of an escalation of this conflict, the opening of a second front in the north and, of course, Iran's involvement.’ US President Biden is reportedly considering a visit to Israel Saudi Arabia — the foreign ministry has denounced Israel as ‘occupation forces’ and said that Hamas acted as a ‘result of the continued occupation and deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights’ Iran — foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has made several dire warnings, including that ‘if the Zionist aggressions do not stop, the hands of all parties in the region are on the trigger.’ Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh met with the minister on Saturday in Qatar, where they ‘agreed to continue cooperation’ to achieve the group's goals, Hamas said in a statement FTSE 100 oil major implications There are many markets that could be affected by the war — but the most immediate are oil and gas. For context, European wholesale gas prices had already hit a seven-month high on Friday — and Brent Crude remains elevated at circa $91 per barrel. Blinken had noted that thawing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could have been a motivator behind the original Hamas attacks. For perspective, a US-backed plan for Saudi Arabia to formally recognise the state of Israel and increase its oil production, in exchange for increased US military aid and increased political support, could now be essentially sunk. Had Saudi, which had previously agreed to restrict its oil production alongside other OPEC cartel members, agreed to increase oil production, then the rest of the OPEC cartel could have followed. There is now an opportunity for the cartel to squeeze prices even higher. Further, the tentative nuclear deal being drawn up between the west and Iran may now break down, making increased oil output from the country unlikely as well. The bigger problem is the Strait of Hormuz — which contains eight major islands — seven of which are controlled by Iran. The EIA considers the Strait to be the world’s most important oil chokepoint, with the Strauss Center thinking that oil tankers carry 17 million barrels of oil, representing 20-30% of global daily consumption, through the Strait each day. Any disruption could see oil rise sharply. In addition, the Baltic-connector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was damaged late last week with investigators finding the rupture was caused by mechanical force. Russian President Putin has denied involvement, but Finnish officials cannot rule out state actor involvement. NATO has promised a ‘determined’ response — and the timing is clearly questionable. Oil prices, and the FTSE 100 oil majors BP and Shell could well rise on Monday. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Retail trader bias shifts from majority buy to the middle, CoT speculators not far off from extreme sell territory. Source: Bloomberg Shares Federal Reserve Revenue Interest Assets under management Interest rates Monte Safieddine | Market Analyst, Dubai | Publication date: Monday 16 October 2023 08:16 Upside surprise for pricing data Starting with the data, and it’s been mostly about pricing as of late. Last Thursday’s consumer price index (CPI) readings were hotter than anticipated for the headline while as anticipated for its core. Trade pricing data on Friday with ongoing year-on-year (y/y) negative prints are recovering and there is month-on-month (m/m) positive growth for both exports and imports. Preliminary figures out of the University of Michigan (UoM) show consumer inflation expectations jumping to 3.8% for the 12-month and five-year rising to 3%. Its consumer sentiment reading a clear miss falling to 63. Fed speak softens, yields pull back There was more central bank speak on offer, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) president Patrick Harker believing they “are at the point where we can hold rates where they are”, that policy is now restrictive and “holding rates steady will let monetary policy do its work”, though uncertain of how long rates will need to remain where they are. Treasury yields finally suffered a red week and so too in real terms on the flight to safety after the rise in geopolitical risk and softer comments from some Fed officials managed to offset other factors including a weak auction late last week. Earnings recap of the financial heavyweights As for earnings from the financial heavyweights last Friday, JPMorgan Chase are enjoying an increase in revenue thanks to “over-earning” on net interest income that was stronger than anticipated with credit provisions lower, and Citigroup’s core businesses “each posting revenue growth”. Also on the earnings front, Wells Fargo’s revenue growth thanks to net interest income and investments, and BlackRock suffering a drop in net inflows and its total assets under management (AUM) falling from the second quarter. Week ahead For the week ahead, impactful data from the US will be deferred until tomorrow when we receive retail sales figures for the month of September, following a 0.6% growth in the previous month (figures are not adjusted for inflation). However, it is the data for the final months of this year that are expected to reveal a more challenged consumer. Attention then shifts to the housing sector with the release of the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB's) housing market index, which previously missed expectations with a figure indicating a negative outlook. This will be followed by building permits and housing starts for September; the August data showed a clear beat for the former and a clear miss for the latter. Also on the agenda are weekly mortgage applications and Thursday's existing home sales data, which have missed expectations three times consecutively. Little surprise there, as those locked into lower rates are inclined to hold. There will be numerous Federal Reserve member speeches this week, including one from Chairman Powell. In the earnings landscape, financial sector updates will continue with Bank of America and Goldman Sachs releasing their reports tomorrow. Tesla, the first among the 'Magnificent Seven,' will report on Wednesday. Netflix is also scheduled to release its figures on the same day, as are ASML and Lam Research, providing early insights into the performance of the semiconductor industry. Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels Starting with the weekly time frame, the asset's previous weekly 1st Resistance level did manage to hold on multiple occasions, at least once triggering cautious, conformist sell orders following significant reversals. The overall sentiment here remains one of 'cautious consolidation'. On the daily time frame, the asset has been struggling, exhibiting a 'bear average'. Late last week, it moved below Thursday's 1st Support level as well as its S/L (stop-loss), initially favouring daily conformist sell-breakouts. However, a subsequent recovery triggered contrarian buy-after-reversals, which on net balance had more positive outcomes. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow Price gains have enticed retail traders to shift from what was majority buy 58% at the start of last week to the middle, ending what has been a relatively brief period of majority buy bias. CoT speculators were and still are heavy to the sell side, a drop in longs and a simultaneous rise in shorts taking the bias closer to extreme short territory. Source: IG Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of the start of this week for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the start of last week. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

The trading opportunities widen next week as we see more corporates report earnings, but the event which Daily FX's Warren Venketas is watching is UK inflation. And the trade to watch is a short GBP/USD position. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 October 2023 17:09 (Partial Video Transcript) Risk event centres on UK economy JN: Welcome! Time now for Risk Event for the week starting Monday 16 October 2023. As we see a continuation of the earnings heat up, we’ve also got some economic data that could be of interest. Let’s go now to Warren Venketas from IG’s Johannesburg office. Warren, what have you got for us for next week’s risk event? WV: Hi Jeremy and thanks for having me. The risk event for next week that I will be focused on is centred around the UK economy and that’s via the UK jobs report. More specifically, the UK consumer price index release. […] This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

USD/JPY flirts with the psychological 150 mark; EUR/JPY continues to be capped at key resistance; AUD/JPY is holding above key support; and the outlook and key levels to watch in select JPY crosses. Source: Bloomberg Japanese yen USD/JPY AUD/JPY EUR/JPY Forex Shares Manish Jaradi | DFX Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 16 October 2023 07:30 USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY’s rally has stalled recently as it hovers around stiff resistance at the psychological 150 mark, not too far from the 2022 high of 152.00. However, there is no sign of a reversal of the uptrend. The price action so far this month can be at best described as sideways with the lower edge beginning supported around the 200-period moving average (MA), around the early-October low of 147.35.  USD/JPY technical analysis With USD/JPY within last year’s intervention zone, it could be tough to clear 150.00-152.00, especially given some Fed officials have indicated a peak in rates. On the other hand, any fall below 147.00-147.50 would confirm that the broader upward pressure had faded. Such a fall could open the way toward the early-September low of 144.50. USD/JPY 240-minute chart Source: TradingView EUR/JPY technical analysis EUR/JPY has been capped by quite strong resistance on a horizontal trendline since September (at about 158.50). Despite the recent sideways price action, the cross continues to hold above a vital cushion on the 89-day moving average, coinciding with the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts, near the early-October low of 154.50. This support area is strong and could be tough to crack, especially in the context of the broader uptrend following the break earlier this year above strong resistance at the 2014 high of 149.75.    EUR/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView AUD/JPY technical analysis AUD/JPY has been unable to sustain gains recently, but while it continues to hold above quite strong converged support at the 89-day moving average, the February high, and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts, the broader bias continues to be up. At the same time, unless the cross clears the June high of 97.70 the path of least remains sideways at best.  AUD/JPY weekly chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

As Middle Eastern tensions stabilise, US equity markets show signs of resilience. With a light economic calendar but key Retail Sales data on the horizon, here's what investors should focus on this week. Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 16 October 2023 07:26 Geopolitical tensions ease With diplomatic efforts and bad weather preventing a further escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions over the weekend, we are seeing a reversal of the safe-haven flows put in place ahead of the weekend. US equity futures and yields are higher. The US dollar, crude oil, and gold prices have all eased during cautious trading in the early hours of the new week. There remains a great deal of uncertainty hovering over the markets, as there has been all year, with the tragic events in the Middle East adding to the complexity. Potential upsides However, there are some positives, including the ones listed below, that may help the market climb a "wall of worry," especially if events in the Middle East remain contained. We recommend staying open-minded and flexible. Monetary policy The rise in long-end yields and the tightening of financial conditions have removed the need for further Federal Reserve rate hikes Earnings season The earnings season appears stable, showing signs of stabilisation Seasonal and technical factors Seasonal and technical factors are positive Inflation trends While inflation is trending lower, last week served as a reminder that it will be a bumpy descent Market leaders The "Magnificent Seven," which comprises 30% of the S&P 500 by market capitalisation, has been, and continues to be, a driving force for the S&P 500 this year Upcoming economic indicators and retail sales The US economic calendar is light this week. The main event to watch is the release of retail sales data for September on Tuesday night at 11:30 pm, which will be closely monitored to assess the health of the US consumer. Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.3% in September, easing from 0.6% in August. Retail Sales, ex volatile Autos and Gas are expected to increase by 0.1% in September from 0.2% in August. S&P 500 technical analysis During September, we forecasted that the S&P 500 would experience another downturn towards the 4250/4200 support region as the third and final wave (Wave C of an ABC correction) to complete a correction from the July 4607 peak. Following the indicators of consolidation that emerged within the 4250/4200 support zone in early October and subsequent to last Monday's close above the August 4335 high, we believe the correction is finalised and have shifted to a bullish stance, seeking a retest and breach of the July peaks. Be aware that if the S&P 500 were to experience a sustained breach below the 200-day moving average at 4220/4200, it would serve as a warning that a more substantial pullback is in progress. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis Much like the S&P 500, during September we noted that the Nasdaq was lacking another downturn as part of the correction that commenced in July. The original articles can be found here and here. While the pullback in the S&P 500 met our retracement target, the pullback in the Nasdaq fell short of our preferred wave equality objective in the 14,200 area. As we pointed out last week, this leaves the question open as to whether the Nasdaq has finalised its correction from the July peak or still requires a final downturn towards 14,200 before the uptrend resumes. What we do know is that if the Nasdaq can achieve a sustained breach above the downtrend resistance at 15,350, stemming from the July 15,932 peak, it would confirm that the correction is complete and the uptrend has recommenced—anticipating a push towards 16,500 by year-end. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView. the figures stated are as of October 16, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The Hang Seng index’s rebound ran out of steam toward the end of last week; China data released last week showed the economy is yet to witness a solid recovery; outlook for and key levels to watch in the HSI and the CSI 300. Source: Bloomberg Hang Seng Index China Indices Shares Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Investment Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 16 October 2023 07:23 Hang Seng index runs out of steam The Hang Seng index’s rebound early last week ran out of steam towards the end of the week, suggesting that a meaningful upward momentum is lacking in Hong Kong/China equities despite the support/stimulus measures in recent months.  Economic data in recent weeks have raised hopes that economic growth in China could be bottoming – the Economic Surprise index has shown steady improvement since July. However, those hopes were dented after data last weeks showed persistent anaemic domestic demand and deflation. Consensus economic growth for the current year is yet to turn around after being downgraded since Q2-2023. Chinese policymakers have responded with a string of support/stimulus measures in recent months in an attempt to revive the faltering post-Covid recovery and a weak property sector. Most recently, media reports suggest China is considering creating a state-backed stabilisation fund to shore up confidence in equity markets. Moreover, the world’s second-largest economy is considering raising its budget deficit for 2023 as the government prepares a fresh round of stimulus to boost the economy. Hang Seng index monthly chart Source: TradingView Hang Seng index technical analysis On technical charts, the Hang Seng index has rebounded in recent sessions, but it is too early to say if this time is different compared to the rebounds since Q2-2023. At a minimum, the index needs to cross through a vital ceiling at the September high of 18,900, coinciding with the 89-day moving average and the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts.  Such a break would reduce the immediate downside risks and clear the way toward the June-July highs of around 20,300. For a reversal of the broader downtrend, it is important for the index to stop making new lows and break above 20,300. Until then, risks remain toward the downside, initially toward the early-October low of 17,000, followed by the lower edge of a declining channel since early 20,300.  Hang Seng index daily chart Source: TradingView CSI 300 technical analysis From a broader trend perspective, the CSI 300 index continues to be weighed by stiff converged resistance, including the 89-week moving average, coinciding with the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly charts. There is a distinct shift in the trend compared with 2019-2022, where the index was holding above the cloud and the moving average (MA).  For the immediate downward pressure to fade, the index needs to break above 4,000-4,270, including the February high of 4,270, the cloud and the MA, the bias remains weak. Any break below strong support on a horizontal trendline since 2019 (at about 3,500) could clear the path toward the 2019 low of 2,935.  CSI 300 index weekly chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 remain broadly biased higher; but near-term trends are also bearish, offering a neutral view and what are the key levels to watch for in the week ahead. Source: Bloomberg S&P 500 Nasdaq Indices Shares Forex Market trend Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Monday 16 October 2023 04:58 S&P 500 technical analysis The S&P 500 completed a second weekly gain, finishing almost 0.4% higher over the past five trading days. That said, the index relinquished some gains heading into the end of the week, making for overall cautious upside performance. Still, the broader technical outlook remains broadly biased to the upside. Let us take a closer look at why. All you have to do is look at the rising range of support from October 2022 to see why. This zone has been maintaining the dominant upside focus. Another key support zone is the 4235 – 4277 range established in September. That said, there is an argument for a near-term bearish bias considering losses since July. Key resistance is 4430.5. Clearing higher exposes the September peak of 4566. Otherwise, clearing support offers an increasingly bearish bias towards the April low of 4062.25. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView NASDAQ 100 technical analysis The NASDAQ 100 faces a similar situation as the S&P 500. Losses later in the week meant that the tech-heavy index finished little changed. That said, the broader bullish bias is being upheld by a rising range of support from the beginning of this year. Coupled with the 14589 – 14853 support zone, the NASDAQ may find it difficult to breach meaningfully lower. At the same time, losses since July have been offering a short-term bearish technical bias. A falling trendline from then (blue line below) is also holding as resistance, maintaining the downside focus. Clearing lower exposes the June low of 14251 before the 13740 inflection zone kicks in. On the other hand, reversing higher may open the door to revisiting the July peak. NASDAQ 100 daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Latest: BTC/USD Chart Mixed as 200-day SMA Stands Firm Oct 12, 2023 1:37 PM +02:00 Nick Cawley, DailyFX Senior Strategist Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Have global interest rates peaked? Bitcoin is unable to break the 200-day simple moving average. Bitcoin is trapped in a wide $25k - $32k range and is finding it difficult to make a concerted attempt at either support or resistance. The backdrop for the cryptocurrency market should be mildly positive with a raft of spot BTC and ETH ETFs expected shortly, while global interest rates are seen at, or very close to, their peaks. The latest raft of Fed speak has been dovish with a spread of FOMC members suggesting that with further tightening expected from previous rate hikes, inflation will continue to fall, easing the pressure on the US central bank to tighten monetary policy further. Traditional risk markets have pushed ahead in the past week, while the VIX – the ‘fear barometer’ - is currently printing its sixth red candle in a row. What is the VIX? VIX Daily Price Chart The latest US inflation report will be released later in today’s session and any deviation from expectations – core y/y @4.1% and headline y/y @3.6% - may add a dose of volatility into the market. A look at the daily chart shows the spot BTC price is struggling to break the 200-day simple moving average. BTC is now pressing down on the 50-dsma that lines up with a prior level of note around the $26.5k area. Below here there is a cluster of old highs and lows down to $25k. These should stem any further sell-off. For Bitcoin to rally back to $32k resistance, the 200-dsma at $28k needs to be broken convincingly. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart – October 12, 2023 Charts by TradingView Would like to hear other views from the community is Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?

Bitcoin Faces Death Cross as XRP Fails to Capitalize on Appeal Ruling Oct 10, 2023 9:39 PM +02:00 Zain Vawda, DailyFX Analyst FEDERAL COURT DENIES INTERLOCUTORY APPEAL BY SEC XRP had enjoyed a decent enough Q3 even if it failed to hold onto the gains made post the decision by Judge Torres. A lot of this was down to news that the SEC was to launch an interlocutory appeal, which seemed to have dampened the spirits of XRP bulls. On Monday, October 3 the Federal Court denied the SEC request to certify its interlocutory appeal. Judge Torres stated that to grant the SEC’s request for a certification, she would have to find, among other matters, a controlling question of law for which there was a “substantial ground” for a difference of view. However, this was not the case here, she claimed. However, the decision by Judge Torres has failed to capitalize on the decision with Ripple falling around 3.2% yesterday. This also could have been down to the broader risk-off sentiment which drove markets early on Monday. Another reason why the drop off in XRP is particularly interesting is down to the recent decision by the Bank of International Settlement to add Ripple to its interoperability taskforce. This means that Ripple is now a part of the taskforce established for cross border payments. This should have been a huge positive for the payment service provider but has not yet materialized in the price of XRPUSD. Looking at the crypto fear and greed index and we have seen a recovery over the past month from fear to neutral which is a slight positive for crypto markets as a whole. Source: FinancialJuice There is a belief among many in the crypto space that with the ruling last week by Judge Torres the SEC could choose to drop their case. Given the disdain showed toward the crypto industry by the SEC i wouldn’t hold my breath and will rather wait for an official announcement on the matter.