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Gold prices climbed for another day, while retail traders turn more bearish and investors ponder an XAU/USD trendline breakout. Source: Bloomberg XAU/USD Forex Shares Commodities Gold IG Group Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Tuesday 19 September 2023 05:16 Gold sentiment outlook - bullish Gold prices have rallied for a couple of trading sessions and retail traders have responded by increasing their downside exposure. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will an increasing shift in retail exposure offer a warm welcome for the yellow metal? The IGCS gauge shows that about 70% of retail traders are net-long gold. Since the majority of them are biased to the upside, this still could spell trouble for gold down the road. That said, downside exposure has increased by 9.49% and 3.59% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, recent changes in exposure hint that the price trend may soon reverse higher. IG Client Sentiment chart Source: DailyFX Gold technical analysis On the daily chart, recent gains have pushed gold prices to flirt confirming a breakout above the falling trendline from May. Immediate resistance is the 1936.90 inflection point. A push above that exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1971.63, opening the door to an increasingly bullish technical bias. Otherwise, a false breakout places the focus back on the 38.2% point around 1903.46 before exposing the August swing low of 1884.37. Confirming a breakout under the latter opens the door to extending the downtrend since May. XAU/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian dollar has steadied going into Tuesday’s session; RBA meeting minutes confirm most of what was already known, while RBA and Fed policy face similar futures. Source: Bloomberg Australian dollar Forex Shares Monetary policy Inflation Federal Reserve Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Tuesday 19 September 2023 RBA leaves rates on hold The Australian dollar’s grip above 64c is intact after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA’s) meeting minutes were published today. The notes expanded on the commentary in the monetary policy statement that was released at the time of the rate decision on 5 September. The RBA left rates on hold at 4.10% at the meeting and the interest rate market is ascribing only a low probability of any further hikes in this cycle. It appears that the third-quarter consumer price index (CPI), due to be released on 25 October, is the crucial data point that might shift the needle on the RBA’s thinking around monetary policy. The RBA has hiked by 400 basis points (bps) since the pandemic lows near zero, while the Federal Reserve has hiked by 525 bps. Today’s publication of the RBA board’s perspective noted: “The members considered two options for monetary policy at this meeting: raising the cash rate target by a further 25 basis points; or holding the cash rate target steady. “In weighing up the two options, members agreed that the case to keep the cash rate target unchanged at this meeting was the stronger one.” Decision driven by concern for China Overall, the two main competing factors appear to be the concern for the economic outlook for China being weighed against persistently high domestic inflation. At the time of the monetary policy decision the accompanying statement cited risks around services inflation, the uncertainty around the laggard effects of tighter policy, household consumption and the economic outlook for China given the problems in its property sector. All of these themes received further attention in the minutes. Consistent with today’s release, the statement from the meeting noted, “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks.” The meeting was Governor Philip Lowe’s last as leader and he handed the baton over to Michelle Bullock this week. Bullock has been the Deputy Governor of the bank since April 2022 and has been with the institution since 1985. She has a reputation as a leading economist in her own right. The appointment is mostly viewed as a steady transfer of leadership and her recent remarks point toward a similar approach to that of her predecessors. Interest rate markets see only a small chance of further tightening in this cycle from the RBA and the Fed. Adjustments in the disparity of monetary policy between the central banks might be a driver for the Aussie going forward. AUD/USD technical analysis AUD/USD remains in a shorter-term descending trend channel after rallying last week to retreat back into the recent range. The price has been trading between 0.6358 and 0.6522 for six weeks. The Aussie remains below the 34-, 55- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) and they have negative gradients, which may suggest that bearish momentum is intact for now. Resistance could be at the recent high near 0.6520. Further up, the 0.6600 - 0.6620 area might be a notable resistance zone with several breakpoints and prior peaks there, as well as the 100-day SMA. On the downside, support may lie at the breakpoints and previous lows near 0.6360, 0.6270 and 0.6170. The latter might also be supported at 161.8% Fibonacci Extension level at 0.6186. Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Dow, Nikkei & CAC40 edge up in morning trading Indices had a poor start to the week yesterday, but have picked some small gains in early trading today. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 19 September 2023 Dow holds above trendline support After Friday’s slump the index struggled to make much headway on Monday. The 35,000 level is the barrier to any short-term upside, beyond which the highs of August towards 35,800 loom. For the moment, trendline support from the August low continues to hold, propping up the index and preventing any near-term decline. A close below 34,500 would be a bearish catalyst, and see the price test the early September low (34,330), then the 100-day SMA, and then the August low just above 34,000. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 consolidates after recent surge After surging on Thursday last week the index has seen a loss of momentum, though it has held on to most of those gains. As with the Dow, trendline support from the August low continues to underpin the index. It would need a close back below 33,000 to suggest that a bearish view prevails in the short-term. Further upside targets the June highs at 34,000, once the 33,500 level has been breached on a daily close basis. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 fights to remain above 200-day MA The CAC40 suffered a severe loss of momentum on Monday, reversing from Friday’s 7400 high. Once more the index has seen bullish momentum fade, and a return to the 200-day SMA look likely. This has stalled any deeper retracement since mid-August, while below this the 7100 support zone looms. A close above 7400 would provide a much-needed bullish catalyst, and open the way to 7508 and 7587. Source: ProRealTime

WTI and orange juice futures rally on tight supply while gold price also rises Outlook on WTI, gold and orange juice futures ahead of plethora of central bank meetings this week. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 19 September 2023 10:39 WTI continues to rise on tight supply WTI’s over 16% rally since August to a new ten-month high at $91.37 per barrel is showing no signs of slowing down. The next upside target zone is the $92.70 to $92.95 region, consisting of the October and November 2022 highs. Support comes in along the August-to-September uptrend line at $90.12, around the psychological $90 mark, and at the September, October and mid-November 2022 highs at $89.70 to $89.39. Source: ProRealTime Gold price rallies ahead of FOMC meeting The gold price is on track for its fourth consecutive day of gains as the US dollar gives back some of its nine straight weeks of gains. The July-to-September downtrend line at $1,939 per troy ounce represents the next upside target. There the advance may pause ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting at which no rate hike is expected. A successful break of the downtrend line, meaning a daily chart close above it, could put the early September high back on the cards. Minor support is seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,924. Source: ProRealTime Orange juice futures trade at new all-time record highs On Monday front month orange juice futures made a new all-time record high at $335.61 per 15,000 Lbs., above the August-to-September triple peaks from $332.67 to $332.84, due to tight supply caused by hurricane Idalia and the spread of an incurable disease. This points to a technical breakout towards the $350 region. With overall orange juice production in the US at its lowest levels in the past century and as orange juice stockpiles shrink to a record low in top exporter Brazil, front month orange juice futures prices are geared for higher prices. The immediately bullish technical view will remain valid as long as front month orange juice futures stay above last week’s low at $322.44 on a daily chart closing basis. Source: ProRealTime

Indices in Asia fell back, with the Nikkei's 1% drop coming as it played catch-up following Monday's holiday in Japan. The uncertainty around this week's central bank decisions is keeping risk appetite firmly in check; yesterday's losses for European markets show investors remain acutely nervous about rising oil prices and the potential for higher interest rates that might be needed in response. Oil prices continue to rise, as if to remind everyone of the possibility that inflation will surge in the autumn. Canadian inflation today provides a gentle warmup for the heavyweight news later in the week.

Telecoms giant Vodafone has seen its price surge since mid-August, but is this really the start of a turnaround? Source: Bloomberg Shares Vodafone Price Candlestick Technical analysis Market sentiment Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 13:43 Telecoms giant Vodafone has seen its price surge since mid-August, but is this really the start of a turnaround? The past year has indeed been a bumpy ride for shareholders of Vodafone. The company's share price has experienced a significant decline since late-February, resulting in a loss of over a quarter of its value in just five months. However, amidst this gloomy backdrop, there is a glimmer of hope. On Monday, 24 July, Vodafone released its latest trading update, and for once, it contained some positive news. The telecoms giant reported decent organic/adjusted growth across its vast global operations. This is a welcome change from the downward trajectory that has plagued the company in recent months. In the first quarter (Q1), Vodafone's total revenue increased by 4.8% compared to the previous year, with adjusted growth reaching 3.7%. These figures indicate that the company is making progress in its efforts to turn things around. One market that particularly stood out as a star performer was the UK. With a growth rate of 5.7%, the UK market experienced a boost following inflation-plus price rises earlier this year. Additionally, revenue declines in Germany, Italy, and Spain were less severe than before, indicating some signs of stabilization in these markets. Vodafone analyst ratings, price targets and sentiment Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘hold’ for Vodafone. Analysts show 3 strong buy, 5 buy, 10 hold, 2 sell and 1 strong sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 99.86 pence for the share, roughly 25% higher than the current price (as of 18 September 2023). Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 98% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 18 September 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while only 2% of clients expect the price to fall. Trading activity over this week shows 61% of buys and this month 69% of sells. Vodafone technical analysis Last week the Vodafone’s share price gave a technical buy signal as it saw its first weekly chart close above its July peak at 78.33p. It indicates that the share is probably in the process of forming a medium- and perhaps even long-term bottom which could take it back to its February high at 103.24p. Vodafone Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView The next technical upside target zone is made up of the December 2022 low at 83.24p, the April low at 87.20 and the 55-week simple moving average (SMA) at 88.12p. Potential slips should find support between the July and August highs at 78.33p to 77.03p. Further support can be found between the early June low and the early-July high at 75.31p to 74.10p. Vodafone Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView While the June-to-August lows at 70.06p to 69.90p underpin, a medium-term bottom remains in play with a bullish medium-to long-term reversal expected to ensue. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

After an impressive rally this year, can Carnival’s upcoming earnings support further gains? Source: Bloomberg Shares Price Debt Net income Interest Interest rates Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 12:57 Carnival, the largest cruise operator in the world, has certainly faced its fair share of challenges during the pandemic. However, the company's recent performance and recovery efforts are worth noting. Despite the shutdown of operations and heavy borrowing to stay afloat, Carnival has managed to make significant strides in its comeback. In the second quarter (Q2) of 2023, Carnival achieved record sales of $4.9 billion, a testament to the growing demand for cruises as people eagerly return to this form of travel. The company also reported record deposits of $7.2 billion, indicating a strong level of customer interest and commitment. It seems that price increases have not deterred potential passengers, further bolstering Carnival's recovery. While losses persist as the company rebuilds, there are positive signs to be found. The net loss of $407 million in the Q2 represents a marked improvement from the over $1 billion loss experienced last year. Additionally, Carnival achieved positive operating income for the first time since the pandemic began, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached $681 million, nearing the upper end of guidance. Looking ahead, the company expects these figures to more than triple in the Q3, with a return to adjusted net profit on the horizon. It is worth noting that Carnival's long-term debt remains high, standing at $32 billion as of the end of the second quarter. This is a result of the company's need to issue substantial debt to sustain operations during the revenue drought caused by the pandemic. However, Carnival is actively working towards reducing this debt burden and has already made progress, having paid off over $1 billion of its peak debt. Furthermore, the company has taken steps to enhance shareholder value by diluting its share count through equity issuance, but it has also been engaged in share buybacks to counterbalance this. Overall, Carnival's recovery journey is a compelling story to follow. While challenges persist, the company's record-breaking sales, improving financial performance, and debt reduction efforts indicate a positive trajectory. As the cruise industry continues to rebound, Carnival's ability to adapt and navigate these turbulent waters will be crucial in determining its long-term success. Carnival analyst ratings, price targets and sentiment Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘hold’ for Carnival which is expected to publish its Q3 results on 29 September 2023. Analysts show 1 strong buy, 3 buy, 2 hold and 4 sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 1,183.45p for the share, roughly 6% higher than the current price (as of 18 September 2023). Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 88% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 18 September 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 12% of clients expect the price to fall. Trading activity over this week shows 100% of sells and this month 54% of sells. Carnival technical analysis At the end of July the Carnival share price tried to overcome the 2018-to-2023 downtrend line and 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at 1,332.50 pence but was rejected by these. The share has then given back around 20% of gains from its 1,376.5p July peak by slipping to last week’s low at 1,059p. Carnival Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView Over the past few weeks the Carnival share price has found support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-July advance at 1,089p, while still having risen by 87% year-to-date. The fact that the Carnival share price remains above its 974.20p late June low is encouraging for the bulls and seems to indicate that the past couple of months’ slide is just a retracement in a strong uptrend and not a major bearish reversal. Carnival Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView For a medium-term bottom to be confirmed, however, a rise and daily chart close above the late August high at 1,190.00p would need to occur. Only then could the long-term downtrend line at 1,240p be back in sight. It would need to be exceeded on a weekly chart closing basis for this year’s high at 1,376.50p to be back in the frame. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Hi @Charlie7 IG has now updated the 2FA solution to use supported by apps like Google Authenticator and Microsoft Authenticator. All the best - MongiIG

Oil extended gains again on Monday after US crude, or WTI, climbed to its highest level since November 2022 last week, going over $91 a barrel. Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 10:31 As a result, some analysts believe crude prices could hit the $100 a barrel milestone before year-end. China's stimulus policy, resilient US economic data, and ongoing output cuts from Saudi Arabia are among the bullish factors supporting the oil market's upside rally, as IGTV’s Angela Barnes explains. Oil prices Oil prices, specifically US crude WTI and Brent, are on the rise this morning.Oil - US Crude has increased by 0.75% and is now trading at around $90 a barrel, while Brent has gone up by 0.66% and is trading at around $94 a barrel. Last week, US WTI reached its highest level since November 2022, surpassing $91 a barrel. Some experts even predict that crude prices could hit $100 a barrel by the end of the year. China's stimulus policy The surge in oil prices is being driven by a few factors. Firstly, China's stimulus policy is boosting demand for oil, as it seeks to spur economic growth. Secondly, the US economy is showing resilience with positive economic data, leading to higher oil consumption. Lastly, OPEC Plus, a group of oil-producing countries, continues to cut its oil production, further supporting the upward movement in oil prices. However, there was a significant increase in the number of rigs used for oil and gas exploration last Friday, marking the first substantial rise in a while. The total number of active rigs went up by 9 to 641, the largest increase since November 2022. This rise was mainly due to more gas rigs, with only two additional oil rigs coming into operation. It's important to note that such an increase in rig count had not been seen since early July. OPEC Plus Despite this, the current upward trend in oil prices is backed by various factors, such as China's stimulus measures, positive economic data from the US, and ongoing production cuts by OPEC Plus. These factors have fueled a rally in the oil market, with some analysts suggesting that the price of crude could surpass $100 a barrel once again before the year is over. US crude WTI and Brent To sum up, the recent rise in oil prices, especially US crude WTI and Brent, can be attributed to factors like China's stimulus policy, strong US economic data, and ongoing production cuts by OPEC Plus. However, the increase in the number of rigs last week, particularly in gas rigs, poses potential challenges to the ongoing rally in oil prices. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

This week will see the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all announce their latest decisions on interest rates. On Wednesday, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady. Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 10:09 Some of the recent macroeconomic indicators plead for a resurgence in economic activity, therefore raising the risk of renewed price pressures. If this Wednesday's decision is a given, the November meeting could be a close call, and the FOMC economic projections will be of particular interest. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates once again on Thursday. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters in recent days predict Andrew Bailey will raise rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. In Asia, the highlight of the week will be the BoJ meeting on Friday with the key short-term interest rate expected to remain unchanged at -0.1%. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has more. The European Central Bank This week is an important time for central banks as they make decisions about interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to increase its rates for the tenth time, even though there are concerns of a recession in the eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that a strong majority supported this decision. The Federal Reserve On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will also make a decision on rates, and it is expected that rates will stay the same. The question is whether the Fed will continue to raise rates in the future, as recent reports suggest that the economy is getting stronger and prices could go up. The Bank of England Based on a Reuters poll, it is likely that the Bank of England will raise interest rates on Thursday. Most experts think that there will be a 25 basis point increase to 5.5 percent. The latest data, like lower-than-expected industrial production and monthly GDP, may suggest that this could be the end of the tightening cycle. But inflation is still high compared to other major economies, and recent average hourly earnings show that it might stay that way. The Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday will be an important event in Asia. Even though there has been talk about a rate hike, it is not expected to happen. It is likely that the short-term interest rates will stay the same at 0.1 percent. The People's Bank of China The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is also expected to update the market on Wednesday. It is predicted that the one-year and five-year loan prime rates will stay the same. Before the Bank of England makes its monetary policy decision, the British pound has fallen to its lowest level in three months. If the bank surprises the market with something other than a 25 basis point increase, it could cause more volatility for the pound. GPB/USD Looking at the GBP/USD price chart, it hit a low of 1.2379 on Friday and ended the week near that level. It is currently stable but has the potential for a change after closing below the 200-day simple moving average. EUR/GBP In the EUR/GBP chart, it has been trading within a range for four months. If it breaks away from this range, there could be a good trading opportunity. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Crude oil’s break above key resistance points to further rise; immediate downside risks in natural gas haven’t been eliminated; we guide you on the key levels to watch. Source: Bloomberg Oil Natural gas Shares Gas Commodities Petroleum Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 06:52 Crude Oil: A trend reversal? Crude oil’s ascent appears to be getting stronger, as reflected in the steepening angle of the uptrend since June. This follows a break above quite a few times tested resistance on a horizontal trendline since the end of 2022. has triggered a breakout from a multi-month sideway zone. The break has opened the way toward the October high of 93.00. Crude oil weekly chart Source: TradingView Crude oil technical analysis The bullish break has triggered a double bottom (the March and May lows), pointing to a potential rise toward 103. The potential for a significant low/capitulation was first pointed out in May. Crude oil’s subsequent break above-converged support on the 89-day moving average and the 200-day moving average.  Crude oil 240-minute chart Source: TradingView Oil may resume broader uptrend Last month’s crack above a horizontal trendline from January (that came at about 83.00) sealed the breakout from a multi-week range. Oil looks set to test another horizontal trendline from 2022 (at about 93.00), which would be a key confirmation of the resumption of the broader uptrend. Such a break would also coincide with the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly charts.  Crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView Natural gas: holding above support The intraday trading ranges in natural gas have narrowed further in recent weeks. Despite the narrowing volatility, natural gas has held above the crucial horizontal trendline since July (at about 2.40-2.50). At the same time, natural gas hasn’t been able to build any meaningful upward momentum since after staging a lower top at the end of August. Natural gas daily chart Source: TradingView Is the natural gas rebound over? The failure to reach the early-August high raises the risk that the five-month-long rebound is over, provided the 2.40-2.50 support gives way. Any break below 2.40-2.50 could pave the way toward the Q1-2023 lows of around 1.95-2.00.  Natural gas weekly chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The British pound made new lows last week and momentum might be building; the Bank of England is anticipated to lift rates later this week by 25 basis points, while sterling is staring at some untested support levels. Source: Bloomberg Pound sterling EUR/GBP GBP/USD Forex Shares Spinal muscular atrophy Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 05:55 GBP/USD technical analysis The British pound has slipped to its lowest level in three months ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision this Thursday. Interest rate markets see around an 80% chance of a 25 basis point (bp) hike to lift the cash rate to 5.50%, the highest level since prior to the financial crisis in 2008. If the bank surprises markets with anything other than 25 bp of tightening, sterling volatility might kick off. GBP/USD made a low at 1.2379 on Friday and finished the week near there without testing potential support at the early June low of 1.2369. It has steadied so far on Monday but might be vulnerable after closing below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 200-day SMA may offer resistance ahead of the breakpoints at 1.2445, 1.2550 and 1.2620. Above there, the prior peaks at 1.2746, 1.2800 and 1.2819 may offer resistance. Resistance could also be near the high at the psychological level of 1.3000, which concurs with a historical breakpoint. Further up, the 16-month high of 1.3142 is also just below some breakpoints in the 1.3150 – 1.3160 area and may offer a resistance zone. A bearish triple moving average (TMA) formation requires the price to be below the short-term SMA, the latter to be below the medium-term SMA and the medium-term SMA to be below the long-term SMA. All SMAs also need to have a negative gradient. When looking at any combination of the 10-, 21-, 55- and 100-day SMAs, the criteria for a TMA have been met and might suggest that bearish momentum is evolving. Support could be at the previous lows and breakpoints at 1.2369, 1.2308, 1.2270, 1.2148, 1.2011 and 1.1804. GBP/USD daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/GBP technical analysis EUR/GBP has traded between 0.8493 and 0.8701 for four months in what appears to be a range trading environment. The 10-, 21-, 34-, 55- and 100-day SMAs are all grouped together between 0.8572 and 0.8607, which may confirm a lack of direction for EUR/GBP. If the price has a meaningful move away from either side of that range a breakout trade opportunity may evolve. To learn more about breakout trading, click on the banner below. Support might be at the prior lows and breakpoints of 0.8524, 0.8504, 0.8493, 0.8486 and 0.8481. On the upside, the 100-day SMA might be pivotal for direction. It was tested on two occasions in July and August and was briefly breached a few times last week before retreating back below it. A sustained move above it could see bullish momentum evolve. Further up, resistance might be at the previous peaks at 0.8630, 0.8669, 0.8701 and 0.8735. EUR/GBP daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian dollar is caught in global crosswinds for now and markets have been buying risk assets elsewhere but not AUD/USD. Source: Bloomberg Australian dollar AUD/USD Australia Forex United States dollar Volatility Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 05:26 Australian dollar forecast: neutral The Australian dollar is caught in global crosswinds for now; markets have been buying risk assets elsewhere but not AUD/USD and volatility is low. The Australian dollar eased into the weekend after firming earlier in the week. Overall, the US dollar made larger gains against most other major currencies last week. Interest rate markets have been paring back expectations of rate hikes at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Interest rate markets are not expecting any change but ascribe around a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis-point hike by the end of the year before an easing in the middle of 2024. Interest rate market pricing of FOMC meetings Source: Bloomberg, tastytrade Appetite grows for risk-related assets Last Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its target rate again by 25 basis points to 4.00%. The commentary in the aftermath was less optimistic about the growth outlook for the Euro Zone. Consequently, the markets perceive a potentially less hawkish ECB going forward. A feature of the market of late has been the decrease in volatility in many asset classes. The widely watched VIX index continues to trade close to its lowest level since February 2020, just prior to the pandemic. Although on Friday it did tick up slightly. The VIX and growth-orientated assets, such as the Aussie, often display a negative correlation. The recent rally of equity indices such as the Nasdaq reflects a healthy appetite for risk-related assets of late. In such an environment, the demand for insurance, seen through the price of volatility, is less. By historical standards, the Aussie is underperforming relative to where the VIX index is trading. AUD/USD and VIX chart Source: TradingView Most new jobs in Australia are part-time Last week saw Australia’s unemployment rate came in at 3.7% in August as anticipated and previously. Some 65,000 Australian jobs were added in the month, which was notably above forecasts of 25,000. Unfortunately, 62,000 of the jobs added were part-time rather than full-time. The participation rate picked to 67.0% from 66.7%. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bak of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes for its meeting from earlier this month will be released on Tuesday. The key event for markets though will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Looking at the weekly AUD/USD chart, the price has dipped below a long-term ascending trend line that is part of a Symmetrical Triangle. On Friday, it closed above the ascending trend line but had closed below it in the week prior. This may indicate that there is some uncertainty for direction in AUD/USD for now. A clean break below it might see bearish momentum evolve. AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis AUD/USD remains in a shorter-term descending trend channel after rallying last week to retreat back into the recent range. It briefly traded above a historical breakpoint at 0.6458 but was unable to sustain the move and it may offer resistance. The 34-day simple moving average (SMA) is also in the vicinity and might assist in offering resistance. The price remains below the 34-, 55- and 100-day SMA and they have negative gradients, which may suggest that bearish momentum is intact for now. Resistance could be at the recent high near 0.6520. Further up, the 0.6600 - 0.6620 area might be a notable resistance zone with several breakpoints and prior peaks there, as well as the 100-day SMA. On the downside, support may lie at the breakpoints and previous lows near 0.6360, 0.6270 and 0.6170. The latter might also be supported at 161.8% Fibonacci Extension level at 0.6186. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TadingView AUD/NZD technical analysis AUD/NZD is range bound for now and this is typified by the clustering of the 10, 21, 34-, 55-, 100-, 200- and 260-day SMAs. They all lie in the narrow window of 1.0810 – 1.0860. Historically, this bunching typically only lasts a month, or two before directional price action unfolds. It should be noted though that past performance is not indicative of future results. Friday’s rally saw the price move above all the SMAs and might be the start of a bullish run. A move below any SMA in the near term would negate that perspective. Friday’s peak of 1.0918 was just shy of the July high of 1.0926 and a move above the potential resistance there may encourage AUD/NZD bulls. Further up, resistance might be at the breakpoint and prior peaks near 1.1050 and 1.1090. On the downside, if the price is able to break below all the daily SMAs, support may lie at the recent lows of 1.0780, 1.0732 and 1.0725. AUD/NZD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Despite a resilient AUD/USD performance, bearish sentiment lingers. Explore the factors affecting the Aussie dollar, from commodity prices to central bank meetings, and delve into the RBA's latest moves. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Australian dollar Inflation Central bank Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 05:20 AUD/USD resilience amid greenback surge Last week, the AUD/USD closed 0.85% higher, continuing to swim against the current of a surging US dollar. Contributing to the AUD/USD's resilience were higher commodity prices following additional incremental stimulus in China and a local employment report showing that the Australian labour market remains robust despite the RBA's 400 basis points in rate increases. CFTC positioning data, highlighted in our previous report, indicate that bearish sentiment toward the AUD/USD persists at extreme levels. The speculative net short position was only modestly reduced last week to -79.5k from -83.5k the prior week. Speculative accounts - a pressure test At this juncture, the speculative accounts that amassed short positions during the decline from the July .6899 high have not been significantly pressured. However, some late entrants who added or initiated short positions in the AUD/USD over the past four weeks near .6400 may face tests from this week's event-rich data calendar, which includes: Central bank meetings for the Fed, the BoE, the BoJ, Norges Bank, the Riksbank, and the SNB CPI inflation data in the UK and Japan Global flash PMIs The release of the RBA Minutes from the September meeting (previewed below). RBA meeting minutes Date: Tuesday, 19 September at 11:30 am AEST The Minutes from the Reserve Bank's meeting in September are scheduled for release on Tuesday, 19 September, at 11:30 am AEST. In its September meeting, the RBA maintained its cash rate at 4.10% for a third consecutive month. The RBA's decision to keep rates steady offers additional time to assess the impact of a cumulative 400 basis points in rate hikes and evidence that a sustainable equilibrium between supply and demand is taking shape. Reflecting greater confidence in the inflation outlook and signs of economic moderation, the RBA retained its tightening bias but softened noticeably from earlier stances. "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary to ensure that inflation returns to target within a reasonable timeframe." The Board Meeting Minutes are expected to reiterate the sentiments outlined above. They will be scrutinised closely for insights into what factors might prompt the RBA to act on its tightening bias and what factors could lead the RBA to extend its rate pause for a fourth consecutive month. RBA cash rate chart Source: RBA AUD/USD technical analysis As we have consistently highlighted since 21 August, and reiterated last week, provided the AUD/USD remains above the weekly uptrend support at .6360/50 (originating from the March 2020 low of .5509), the currency pair has the potential to explore higher levels. Initial targets lie at .6520c, with scope to extend towards .6600c and eventually the 200-day moving average at .6700c. Be aware that if the .6360/50 support level is breached on a closing basis, downside support is scant until the .6200/.6170 range, which marked the low in October 2022. While we don’t dispute the various factors contributing to selling interest in the AUD/USD, historical trends suggest that when positioning and sentiment skew too heavily in one direction, the stage is often set for a significant position washout. A case in point is the nearly ten-figure rally from the October 2022 low of .6170. AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of September 18, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

It is a big week for many markets with several central banks meeting to discuss rates. Analysts anticipate that the Fed will keep US interest rates on hold this month, with a hike potentially due in November. Source: Bloomberg Indices Federal Reserve S&P 500 Federal Open Market Committee Stock market index Bank Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 08:02 Markets volatile with 'triple witching' event US stock indices ended last week mixed after volatility on Friday thought to be related to the ‘triple witching’ event (expiry across stock options, index options and futures) saw key stock indices close lower. For the week, the Dow Jones added 41 points (0.12%), the S&P 500 closed 0.16% lower, and the Nasdaq lost 0.5%. This week is a huge one for markets, with central bank meetings for the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Norge's Bank, the Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). On top of that, there is CPI inflation data in the UK and Japan, as well as global flash purchasing manufacturing indexes (PMIs) later in the week. Ahead of Thursday morning's FOMC, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, the rates market is assigning a 99% chance that the Fed will keep rates on hold in September. It then sees a 27% chance of a rate hike in November. The FOMC is widely expected to maintain their target rate for the Fed Fund at 5.25%-5.50%. This means all the focus will be on the accompanying statement. The Fed Chair is expected to provide a balanced tone, like Jackson Hole, providing optionality with a mix of dovish and hawkish comments in accordance with the Fed's data-dependant stance. The SEP (dots) will be of interest, with the 2023 median expected to reflect one more 25bp rate hike for a terminal rate of 5.50%-5.75%. A final rate hike would be considered fine-tuning as the Fed approaches the end of its rate hiking cycle. Further out, the 2024 median dot will likely reflect 75bp of Fed rate cuts next year. US Fed Funds rate chart Source: Fred.stlouisfed.org S&P 500 technical analysis The view remains that the correction in the S&P 500, which started in July, has further to go. Specifically, we are looking for another leg lower to retest and break the mid-August low with the potential to test uptrend support at 4250/20 to complete a Wave IV (Elliott Wave) corrective pullback. Should the pullback play out as expected, we then expect to see the uptrend resume, which would see the S&P 500 test and break the highs of July and possibly set up a test of the bull market 2022, 4818 high. SPX daily chart Soure: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis The view remains that the correction in the Nasdaq, which started in July, has further to go. Specifically, we are looking for another leg lower to initially retest the mid-August low and uptrend support 14,600/500 area. A sustained break below 14,600/500 can test wave equality support 14,200/14,000 area to complete a Wave IV (Elliott Wave) corrective pullback. Should the pullback play out as expected, we then expect to see the uptrend resume, which would see the Nasdaq test and break the highs of July and possibly set up a test of the bull market 2021, 16764 high. NDX daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of 18 September 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Stocks in Asia started the week on a poor note, taking their direction from the weak finish on Wall Street on Friday and Friday's report that TSMC is asking vendors to delay deliveries, which has put pressure on global chip maker stocks. A holiday in Japan reduced liquidity, while the upcoming US, UK and Japanese central bank decisions could see risk appetite firmly circumscribed throughout the week. European markets kick off the day with a profit warning from Swiss Steel, which noted that demand did not improve over the summer, while higher raw materials prices are affecting margins. A softer open is expected in Europe, but in the US futures have ticked higher.

The US dollar’s short-term uptrend remains intact ahead of the FOMC meeting; the Fed is highly likely to keep rates unchanged next week, while the Statement of Economic Projection could be of particular interest. Source: Bloomberg United States dollar Forex Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee Federal funds rate Inflation Manish Jaradi | DFX Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Friday 15 September 2023 06:00 Fed expected to keep rate steady Market pricing based on the CME FedWatch tool suggests the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady at its meeting on 19-20 September. Moderating core inflation (notwithstanding the uptick in headline consumer price index (CPI) last month), cooling labour market conditions and stabilising the housing market argue for a pause. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to be balanced in his assessment, emphasising data-dependency with regard to the near-term path of policy. His message could be similar to his message at the Jackson Hole global central bankers meeting last month, where he left the door open for further tightening to cool still-high inflation and above-trend growth. The bigger question is whether the Fed is done with rate hikes. Recent strong macro data raises the odds of a resurgence in economic activity, raising the risk of renewed price pressures. Hence, while the September rate decision could be a done deal, the November meeting could be a close call. In this regard, next month’s payroll and CPI data will be key before the 1 November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. SEP could be a big market driver The key focus next week will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which will be released along with the September FOMC statement. In particular, the 2023 median policy rate could show one more 25 basis-point hike to 5.50%-5.75%, in line with the June assessment. Increased interest would be on whether the 2024 median policy rate forecast is raised from 4.6% projected in June. From a market perspective, the SEP could be a key driver. Even a 25 basis-point shift higher would still leave roughly 50 basis-points gap with the current dovish 2024 market pricing. Anything greater than that would be perceived to be quite hawkish, triggering a reassessment of the dovish market pricing next year, pushing up USD globally. On the other hand, if 2024 median policy rate projections are unchanged, USD’s rally could take a breather. However, any retreat could be temporary while the US economy outperforms the rest of the world. DXY Index 240-minute chart Source: TradingView USD technical analysis On technical charts, as highlighted in the previous update, the short-term bullish pressure remains intact after the DXY Index (USD index). The higher-highs-higher-lows sequence from July, associated with breaks above two vital resistance levels on the daily chart reinforces the short-term uptrend. The index is now testing stiff resistance at the March high of around 106.00. While momentum on the daily charts has flattened even as the index has marched higher, suggesting fatigue in the rally, a decisive break above 106.00 would be significantly bullish for the US dollar. On the downside, only a break below the 102.50-103.00 would raise the odds that the DXY Index had peaked. DXY Index (USD) daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The euro is on course for longest losing streak since 1997; retail traders continue becoming increasingly bullish, while EUR/USD closes at lowest since March. Source: Bloomberg Euro EUR/USD Forex Shares Market sentiment United States dollar Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Friday 15 September 2023 05:31 EUR/USD sentiment outlook: bearish After a -0.8 percent drop against the US dollar over the past 24 hours, the euro is now on course for a ninth consecutive weekly loss. That would be the longest losing streak since 1997! Meanwhile, retail traders continue becoming more bullish on the single currency. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, is further pain in store for EUR/USD? The IGCS gauge shows that about 71% of retail traders are net-long EUR/USD. Since most of them are biased to the upside, this hints that prices may continue falling down the road. Meanwhile, upside exposure has increased by 13.79% and 1.95% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, this is offering a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias. IG Client Sentiment chart Source: TradingView EUR/USD technical analysis Taking a look at the daily chart below, EUR/USD has extended losses under the 200-day moving average. Now, prices have fallen to the May low of 1.0635, as well as closing at the lowest point since March. With that in mind, EUR/USD is thus facing a potential key turning point. Still, even a bounce off support would not necessarily overturn the downside bias since July. The falling trendline from then is guiding prices lower. Clearing it would offer an increasingly bullish view. Otherwise, clearing lower exposes the March low of 1.0516. Euro daily chart Source: DailyFX This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Gold prices remain focused lower as resistance holds and silver faces key rising support since September 2022. Source: Bloomberg Gold Silver Forex Commodities Fibonacci retracement United States dollar Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Friday 15 September 2023 05:00 XAU/USD technical analysis Spot Gold prices have been aiming cautiously lower in recent days, extending the broader decline since May. Guiding the yellow metal lower has been a falling trendline from May. Recently, XAU/USD rejected the former rising support line from November as it intersected with the descending trendline, opening the door to a downward resumption. Now, gold is facing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1903.46 as immediate support. Breaking lower would expose the August swing low of 1884. Clearing under the latter opens the door to downtrend resumption, exposing the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement level of 1848.37. Otherwise, turning higher places the focus on the 1936.90 inflection point. Gold daily chart Source: TradingView XAG/USD technical analysis Meanwhile, things are also looking interesting for silver. After a series of more pronounced losses compared to gold, XAG/USD now finds itself testing a rising range of support from September 2022. This zone is also closely aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 22.29. Given this key support juncture, a bounce higher is possible. That would open the door to extending consolidation since March. Immediate resistance is the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement at 23.02. Pushing higher would subsequently expose the falling zone of resistance from April. If the latter holds, silver may prolong its broadly neutral technical bias. Otherwise, clearing support exposes the 78.6% level at 21.24. Silver daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Despite some bright spots, THG’s share price has fallen sharply amid the company’s ongoing turnaround strategy. Source: Bloomberg Shares THG plc Revenue IPO Company Speculation Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 14 September 2023 THG shares (LON: THG) fell by 22% to 69p on Thursday as the beauty and lifestyle websites operator delivered weaker-than-expected half-year results. The company, formerly known as The Hut Group, has fallen a long way from its September 2020 IPO — when shares soared by 30% on the first day of trading to 646p within a couple of hours on the market. Remember, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. THG shares: half-year results Group revenue fell by 9.3% year-over-year to £969.3 million, ‘driven by the strategic exit of non-core divisions and discontinued categories, short-term volume reductions within THG Beauty manufacturing, the previously stated de-emphasis in certain beauty markets and the proactive pivoting of the THG.’ However, adjusted EBITDA increased to £47.1 million from £32.3 million in H1 2022, partially due to losses on discontinued products reducing from £8.5 million to £3.1 million as a result of the company’s ongoing strategic review. Operating losses came in at £99.5 million, £10.3 million more than in the same half last year. Again, the company highlighted the impact of a £26.2 million one-off charge that came with disposing of non-core assets and loss-making discontinued categories. Positively, cash generation over the past year has been stronger, and the company maintains a relatively strong balance sheet, with cash on hand of £392.5 million and an undrawn £170 million revolving credit facility at the end of the reporting period. However, active customers in key segments THG Beauty and THG Nutrition fell by 10% and 5% respectively. Where next for THG shares? THG has run into a plethora of troubles over the past couple of years. CEO Matt Moulding — who has publicly lamented the IPO as a ‘mistake’ — has given up his golden share which blocks takeover attempts. The company rejected an approach by Apollo Global Management in May, arguing it had ‘no merit’ due to ‘inadequate valuations and the nature of those offer structures.’ The price of whey, a key ingredient in its protein shakes, has rocketed. However, the nutrition business did still enjoy record first-half revenues of £340.7m, with adjusted EBITDA of £47.1m, up 71.9%. Conversely, the key Ingenuity division, which helps other retailers sell online, has come under heavy speculation over future profitability — with revenue falling by nearly 15%. On the other hand, there were some key client wins in the half, including L'Oréal US prestige brands, having listed in the Gartner's Magic Quadrant for Digital Commerce. Moulding notes that ‘Inflationary pressures provided significant challenges to consumers and businesses alike over the past 18 months. Our strategy of supporting our consumers through 2022, sacrificing margins in the short-term, is bearing fruit. This is reflected in the strong H1 results we've posted today, across adjusted EBITDA and cash.’ Looking forward, the company advises that ‘Q3 revenue exit momentum gives us confidence in full year continuing revenue growth of 0% to -5%.’ While this would represent an improvement from the revenue fall in H1 2023, growth is perhaps not the right word to use — particularly when the company was previously forecasting a low-to-mid-single digit increase. THG does anticipate Q3 continuing revenue to be ‘marginally ahead of Q2’ and the board still expects to see ‘FY 2023 Group Adjusted EBITDA in line with the company consensus.’ Encouragingly, it’s expecting to enjoy free cash flow breakeven for FY 2023 as a whole. Longer-term, THG is still planning to move to the premium segment of the London Stock Exchange and is still facing pressure from several activist investors. Arguably, Moulding’s turnaround strategy is now at a precarious stage, which could nevertheless bear fruit. Given the share price reaction, value investors may be tempted to buy the dip — but this hasn't been the first dip this year. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Asian stocks took their cue from a strong session in the US, and were further bolstered by better Chinese economic data. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported an increase in economic demand, but domestic demand still remains weak. In the US session, a cautious interest rate hike by the European Central Bank, a reduction in the Reserve Ratio Requirement by the People's Bank of China, and a successful Arm IPO all helped to support sentiment. Although the US dollar weakened slightly, it maintained most of its gains from the previous day above the 105.00 level, while EUR/USD remained around a 6-month low in the wake of the ECB's rate hike. Meanwhile, the PBoC kept its Medium-term Lending Facility rate steady. Some of the more aggressive policy makers at the European Central Bank believe that interest rates could increase again in December if there is high wage growth and inflation, despite the cautious one of yesterday's statement. Aside from the Michigan confidence index, no other major data is scheduled, but it is a "quadruple witching" day for options expiration, which could lead to some stock market fluctuations throughout the day.

Brent crude oil trades near 10-month high, sugar near 12-year high while gold falls Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and sugar ahead of the ECB rate decision, US PPI and retail sales. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 14 September 2023 11:16 Brent crude oil remains close to ten-month high The price of Brent crude oil remains close to Wednesday’s ten-month high at $92.45 on worries of further supply tightness. A rise above the July 2022 low at $92.43 and the $92.45 level would put the mid-September 2022 high at $95.19 on the map. Support below the three-week uptrend line at $91.66 is seen at the early September high at $90.98. While Friday’s low at $89.09 underpins, further upside pressure remains in store. Further down potential support can be spotted between the 5 September and mid-August high at $87.92 to $87.83. Source: ProRealTime Gold price continues to slide Gold’s slide from its $1,953 per troy ounce early September high remains on track to reach the July and 25 August lows at $1,904 to $1,903. If fallen through, the June trough at $1,893 may also be reached. Resistance remains to be seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,922. While the next higher 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and Monday’s high at $1,931 cap, downside pressure should retain the upper hand. Source: ProRealTime Sugar #11 consolidates below 12-year high Front month sugar futures once more consolidate below Tuesday’s near 12-year high at 27.42 and may slip back towards their 26.81 April peak amid ongoing concerns about Indian sugar production. While the 7 September low at 26.16 underpins, another attempt at the upside may ensue. A daily chart close above the 27.42 high could target the psychological 30.00 mark. Minor support below the 26.21 to 26.16 June peak and Thursday’s low sits at the late August 26.11 high. While the last significant reaction low – the late August trough at 25.30 - holds, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. A reaction low is made when the low of a daily candlestick is below that of the day preceding it and the day following it. Source: ProRealTime

The British pound has been stabilising against US dollar, while retail traders have been slowing becoming bearish and the GBP/USD keeps investors guessing. Source: Bloomberg GBP/USD Forex Pound sterling Market sentiment United States dollar Head and shoulders (chart pattern) Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Thursday 14 September 2023 04:56 GBP/USD sentiment outlook: bullish The British pound has been marking time in recent weeks, pausing a slow and steady decline against the US dollar since July. That said, retail traders are reducing downside exposure of late. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will Sterling reverse higher? The IGCS gauge shows that about 62% of retail traders are net-long GBP/USD. Since most of them are biased to the upside, this still hints that prices may continue falling down the road. But, downside exposure has increased by 5.22% and 9.71% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, recent changes in exposure are hinting that prices may soon reverse higher. IG Client Sentiment chart Source: DailyFX British pound technical analysis On the daily chart, GBP/USD remains technically biased lower in the aftermath of confirming a breakout under a bearish Head-and-Shoulders chart formation. But, since then, prices have been stabilising around the 200-day moving average (MA). The latter is thus maintaining the dominant upside focus. A turn higher from here would place the focus on the neckline of the chart formation around 1.2592. Confirming a breakout above this point would undermine the Head-and-Shoulders, exposing the left shoulder around 1.2848. Otherwise, breaking under the 200-day MA exposes the May low of 1.2308 as subsequent support. GPD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Euro bearishness might be intact against the US dollar in the near term; the bullish case for EUR/JPY could have some legs after a brief plunge, while EUR/GBP may see a breakout at some stage. Source: Bloomberg Euro Forex EUR/JPY EUR/GBP EUR/USD Shares Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Thursday 14 September 2023 05:52 EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD has consolidated this week after making a 3-month low last Thursday. The close on that day was below the lower band of the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Band. The day after, it closed back inside the band. This might technically signal a pause in the bearish run or a potential reversal. Conversely, the price remains in a descending trend channel that emerged after making a peak in July at 1.1276 which was among two breakpoints of 1.1273 and 1.1280. This might set up the 1.1270 – 1.1280 area as a resistance zone. With these conflicting signals in mind, the recent retreat from pushing lower might confirm the range trading environment for EUR/USD. It has traded between 1.0516 and 1.1276 since the beginning of 2023. Nearby resistance could be at Tuesday’s high near 1.0770, which also has a breakpoint nearby. Above there, a series of breakpoints in the 1.0530 – 1.0835 area and the 200-day SMA may offer resistance. Further up, the prior peak at 1.0945 and the 55-day SMA nearby, could offer resistance ahead of a cluster zone of breakpoints and recent highs in the 1.1065 – 1.1105 area. On the downside, support may lie at the prior lows of 1.0686, 1.0667, 1.0635, 1.0525, 1.0483 and 1.0443. EUR/USD daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/JPY technical analysis EUR/JPY appears to have rejected a move lower on Monday when it traded down to 159.58. That dip broke below two previous lows and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) before closing back above all of them at the end of the session. The sell-off could be interpreted as a stop-loss take-out rather than an emerging bear market. In any case, the ascending trend line remains intact, and a near-term range trade pattern seems to be unfolding. Support could be in the 156.60 – 157.00 area ahead of the trend line, currently near 156.10. Support might be at the breakpoint at 153.45 and below there, the breakpoints at 151.61 and 151.07 as well as the recent low at 151.41 may also lend support. On the topside, potential resistance might be at the prior peaks of 159.49 and 159.76. EUR/JPY remains above an ascending trend line and the bullish trend might be intact for now. EUR/JPY remains within an ascending channel and the bullish trend might be intact for now. A bullish triple moving average (TMA) formation requires the price to be above the near-term simple moving average (SMA), the latter to be above the medium-term SMA and the medium-term SMA to be above the long-term SMA. All SMAs also need to have a positive gradient. Looking at the 55-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, the criteria for a TMA have been met, which may suggest that bullish momentum is evolving. EUR/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/GBP technical analysis EUR/GBP has traded between 0.8493 and 0.8701 for 4 months in what appears to be a range trading environment. The 10-, 21-, 34-, 55- and 100-day SMAs are all grouped together between 0.8566 and 0.8611, which may confirm a lack of direction for EUR/GBP. If either side of that range is penetrated, a breakout trade opportunity may evolve. Support might be at the prior lows and breakpoints of 0.8524, 0.8504, 0.8493, 0.8486 and 0.8481. On the upside, resistance could be at the 100-day SMA which is currently near 0.8611. It held on two occasions in July and August but was briefly breached yesterday before tumbling back below it. Further up, resistance might be at the previous peaks at 0.8669, 0.8701 and 0.8735. EUR/GBP daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian dollar held gains after Australia jobs data beat expectations; AUD/USD is attempting to form an interim base, while speculative short AUD positioning is at the highest level since early 2022. Caption: Bloomberg AUD/USD United States dollar Forex Australian dollar Australia /business/market_index Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 14 September 2023 07:01 Strong employment growth led by part-time jobs in August The Australian dollar held early Asia gains against the US dollar after the Australian economy created more jobs than expected last month.  The Australian economy created 64.9k jobs in August, compared with forecasts for a gain of 23k, following job losses in July. The unemployment rate remained flat at 3.7%, in line with expectations, just off five-decade lows. The solid jobs number was almost entirely due to part-time employment gains (62.1k), prompting a slight retreat in AUD/USD. Full-time employment rose 2.8k following losses of 24.2k in July.  AUD/USD five-minute chart Source: TradingView Aussie job market cooling The Australian jobs market is showing signs of cooling, reducing the urgency to tighten further. Recent Australian data, including gross domestic product (GDP), composite and services purchasing managers' index (PMI), have been encouraging, coming in higher than previous readings.  However, the Economic Surprise Index for Australia suggests the data have broadly been underwhelming. Wednesday’s jobs data does little to alter the broader expectations of RBA remaining on hold next month. Market pricing suggests a small possibility of a rate hike in November.  With the broader US inflation trajectory still pointing down, albeit gradually, US Federal Reserve rate expectations remained largely anchored around one more hike in November (about 40% chance) before rate cuts beginning mid-2024. US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.7% on-year last month, against expectations of 3.6%, well above 3.2% in July. However, core inflation eased to 4.3% on-year from 4.7% previously.  While the rates outlook for both economies remains similar until the year-end, the outperformance of the US economy has pushed up US dollar globally. In contrast, the outlook for the Australian economy has been deteriorating since the last year. Much would depend on the outlook on the Chinese demand, Australia’s largest export destination. Beijing has announced a spate of support measures/stimulus measures in recent weeks to cushion some of the downside risks, but those measures have yet to translate into an improved outlook for the economy. AUD/USD 240-minute chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis Meanwhile, on technical charts, AUD/USD looks oversold as speculative short AUD positioning is at the highest levels since early 2022. The hold in recent weeks around 0.6350, coinciding with the lower edge of a declining channel since March suggests AUD/USD is attempting to form an interim base. This is reinforced by developments on higher timeframe charts – the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is near the 40-level, which was associated with a rebound on two occasions in H1-2023.  The rise earlier this week above 0.6400 is an encouraging sign for bulls. Any break above the end-August high of 0.6525 would trigger a minor double bottom (the August and September lows), pointing to gains toward 0.6700.  AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.