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Is the Rally Over in Bitcoin & Ethereum? BTC/USD & ETH/USD Price Setups Aug 23, 2023 | Manish Jaradi | Strategist for DailyFX BITCOIN, BTC/USD, ETHEREUM, ETH/USD - OUTLOOK: Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen sharply in recent days. ETH/USD and BTC/USD are approaching major support levels. What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch? BITCOIN: Upward pressure has faded, but not ended Bitcoin’s fall below key converged support around 27300-27800 has confirmed that the bullish pressure from last year has faded. The support includes the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts and a rising channel since early 2023. BTC/USD Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView This follows a failed attempt to cross above the converged barrier at the April high of around 31000, coinciding with the 89-week moving average and the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart. For more discussion, see “Bitcoin & Ethereum Hold Ground Ahead of US CPI: BTC/USD & ETH/USD Price Setups,” published August 10. BTC/USD Weekly Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView While the fall below 27300-27800 has disrupted the uptrend for now, it is not sufficient to suggest an end of the uptrend. Only a break below the June low of 24750 would trigger a reassessment of the overall bullish bias. Any break below 24750 would trigger a double top (the April and July highs), pointing to a deeper retracement toward the March low of 19550. ETH/USD Weekly Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView ETHEREUM: Testing crucial support Ethereum looks relatively weaker than Bitcoin. That’s because ETH/USD created a lower high (relative to its own peak in April) compared with BTC/USD which in July briefly surpassed its April high. ETH/USD Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView ETH/USD dropped below an important converged support on the 200-day moving average and a rising trendline since the end of 2022, confirming that the multi-week upward pressure has dissipated. Ethereum is now testing major support at the June low of 1620. Any break below would raise the odds that the uptrend from the end of last year had ended, pointing to a broad trading range of 1300-2000 subsequently for ETH/USD. The next support is the March low of 1370.

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The dollar hovers near its two-month high peak ahead of PMI data The US dollar trades near its two-month peak touched last week as traders await the Jackson Hole Symposium starting on Thursday. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 August 2023 The US dollar The USD trades near its two-month peak touched last week as traders await the Jackson Hole Symposium starting on Thursday. Throughout the day, published the latest PMI data for the month of August. Europe economy overview In Europe, two indicators will be particularly interesting. Germany's manufacturing activity has been contracting for the past 16 months and is now at its lowest since May 2020. Economists expect it to degrade further, to 38.7 after 38.8 in July. UK manufacturing the purchasing managers' index (PMI) is also forecast to contract further. The index is expected to reach 45 in August. Eurozone consumer confidence Last month, it fell to 45.3, its lowest level in three years. At 3 p.m., eurozone consumer confidence is anticipated to rise to -14.3 in August from -15.1 the previous month. Also at 3 p.m., US new home sales are forecast to fall by 1.6% in July compared to June. NVIDIA NVIDIA, one of Wall Street's favourites since it has been surfing the Al wave ahead of all its competitors, reported on Wednesday after the US closing bell. Earnings per share are expected to come in at $2.07 per share on $11.07 billion. A year ago, the group posted earnings of 58 cents per share on revenue of $5.93 billion. Traders and investors also await reports from Peloton Interactive, Snowflake, and Foot Locker. Crude oil stocks On Tuesday evening, the latest data from the application programming interface (API) showed a 2.4 million barrel drop in crude oil l stocks. Gasoline inventories fell by 150,000 barrels, and distillates rose by 1.9 million barrels. Iron ore rally continues on growing optimism in China. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Euro on course for a sixth consecutive weekly loss; retail traders are maintaining their bullish bets and EUR/USD faces rising support from November. Source: Bloomberg EUR/USD Euro United States dollar Forex Shares Market sentiment Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Wednesday 23 August 2023 EUR/USD sentiment outlook: bearish The euro is on course for a sixth consecutive weekly loss against the US dollar. If confirmed, this would be the longest losing streak for the EUR/USD since 2018. During this time, retail traders have become increasingly bullish on the euro. This can be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, could further pain be in store for the single currency? The IGCS gauge shows that about 67% of retail traders are net-long the euro. Since the majority of them remain biased to the upside, this continues to suggest that EUR/USD may fall down the road. This is as upside exposure increased by 22% and 33% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall exposure and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias. IG client sentiment: EUR/USD Source: TradingView EUR/USD technical analysis On the daily chart, EUR/USD has once again dropped to just above the July low of 1.0834. Guiding the single currency lower has been a near-term falling trendline from July – see chart below. Now, the euro is facing a rising range of support from November. Confirming a breakout lower could open the door to reversing the broader bullish technical bias. That would expose the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0772 on the way toward the May low of 1.0635. Otherwise, pushing above the near-term falling trendline exposes the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement at 1.0956 before the 38.2% level comes into focus at 1.1031. EUR/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Crude oil prices may be readying to extend lower; daily chart is maintaining a broader bullish bias but, bearish Head & Shoulders in focus on four-hour chart. Source: Bloomberg Shares WTI Commodities Market sentiment Price of oil Petroleum Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Wednesday 23 August 2023 WTI crude drops lower WTI crude oil prices may be reading to extend lower following recent technical developments, especially on the four-hour chart. For now, let us focus on the daily setting. Oil is currently on course for a second consecutive weekly loss, which has been fairly unusual for WTI given price action since May. Is this a sign of technical exhaustion? In recent days, WTI left behind new support around $78.99 after confirming a breakout under the rising trendline from June. This also followed the emergence of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Meanwhile, resistance was established around $81.56. Below current price action, a bullish Golden Cross emerged between the 50- and 100-day moving averages (MAs). So, while the near-term technical landscape is appearing bearish, the broader upside bias remains focused higher. But, there are brewing signs of potentially more bearish price action to come. WTI crude daily chart Source: TradingView Prices sitting above bearish chart Using the four-hour setting below, we can see the outlines of a Bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation taking shape. Recently, the peak of the right shoulder was established around $81.69. The neckline seems to be around $79.02. Now, prices are sitting just above the bearish chart formation. Confirming a breakout lower could open the door to extending lower. That would place the focus on the $77.30 inflection point before the 17 July 2023 low of $73.81 comes into focus. Otherwise, pushing back above the right shoulder may open the door to revisiting the 10 August 2023 high of $84.85. WTI crude four-hour chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The gold price has found firmer footing ahead of the Fed’s meeting this week and Treasury yields are on the march higher as selling in debt markets continues and vigorous US real yields might be ominous. Source: Bloomberg Gold Forex Shares Commodities Gold as an investment Federal Reserve Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Wednesday 23 August 2023 The gold price is oscillating around $1,900 in the spot market going into Wednesday’s trading session as markets lie in wait for the Federal Reserve Bank’s Jackson Hole economic symposium to get underway on Thursday. The precious metal has held up reasonably well considering the recent surge in Treasury yields. Yesterday, the benchmark 10-year note traded at its highest yield since 2007, eclipsing 4.36% after dipping to 3.57% in June. Perhaps of more concern for gold bulls is the uptick in US real yields. The real yield is the nominal yield less the market-priced inflation rate derived from Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) for the same tenor. This inflation rate is known as the breakeven inflation rate. The breakeven rate has been relatively stable over the past month, and this has allowed the real yield to climb. This has potentially undermined the gold price as it does not offer investors and traders a return. In fact, there is a cost of carry for holding the yellow metal. This brings the focus on nominal Treasury into focus and the outcome from Jackson Hole might be crucial for the gold price going forward. The US 10-year real yield traded above 2% on Tuesday, a level not seen since July 2009 when the gold price was around $925. The subsequent collapse in the real through to 2013, saw it go negative to almost -1%. It was while that move lower was happening in the US real yields that gold roared to it peak of US$ 1,920 in 2011. If real yields continue to blitz higher, the gold price may come under pressure. See the second chart below. Looking ahead for this week, while there be many Fed speakers will be crossing the wires once the symposium gets underway on Thursday. However, the markets are likely to be more finely tuned to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Spot gold against nominal US 10-year Treasury yield, US 10-year breakeven inflation and US 10-year real yield Source: TradingView Long-term - spot gold against US 10-year real yield Source: TradingView Gold technical analysis The gold price recently tested a potential support zone in the 1885 – 1895 area. In that zone, there are a series of prior lows, a breakpoint, and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of the move from 1614 up to 2062. Further down the 50% Fibonacci Retracement at 1838 might lend support. On the topside, resistance might be at the recent peak of 1897 or psychological level at 2000 where there is also the breakpoint nearby. Gold daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Explore the factors driving the recent strength of the US dollar index as resilient US economic performance counters China's growth concerns. Source: Bloomberg United States dollar United States Dollar Forex Euro Renminbi Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 23 August 2023 Despite the release of only second-tier US data overnight and sharply lower USD/CNY fixes (today was the third fix below 7.20), which indicates Chinese authorities' intention to slow the pace of the yuan's depreciation, the USD dollar still exhibited strength overnight. Factors behind overnight dollar strength Overnight US dollar strength was mainly due to EUR/USD weakness ahead of tonight's Euro Zone flash purchasing managers' index (PMIs), previewed here, and safe-haven buying. S&P's credit rating cuts on several regional US banks due to higher funding costs and their exposure to commercial real estate also contributed to this strength. Additional support for the US dollar can also be attributed to nerves ahead of tonight's Treasury's $16-billion 20-year bond auction. Since their relaunch in 2020, 20-year bond auctions have consistently disappointed investors. With long-end yields at multi-year highs, there is minimal room for disappointment from tonight's auction. Before currency traders shift their attention to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, tonight sees the release of preliminary August global PMIs, which will provide further insight into the trajectory of the US economy and the Federal Reserve Bank's tightening cycle. What is expected from the flash PMIs? The Manufacturing PMI has only registered above 50 once in 2023, which occurred in April. For this month, the market anticipates another modest reading of 49, compared to the previous 49. The Services PMI has been situated in an expansionary range since February 2023, supported by the transition from goods to services. However, following its peak at 54.3 in May, indications of deceleration have emerged. It is expected that there will be a third consecutive decrease in August, with the index dropping to 52.2 from the prior 52.3. The Composite PMI is projected to decrease to 51.5 in August from the earlier reading of 52, thereby maintaining the prevailing "goldilocks" narrative—characterized by a balanced state of neither being excessively hot nor overly cold. DXY technical analysis During the first half of 2023, the US dollar index, the DXY, tested and maintained support at 101.00/80 on three separate occasions before declining following the release of softer-than-expected inflation data in mid-July. Continuing our highlights since late July, the rapid recovery back above 101.00/80 revealed the post-CPI sell-off to the low of 99.57 as a false break lower. For adherents of Elliott Wave theory, this is interpreted as a Wave V low, subsequent to the culmination of a five-wave impulsive sequence originating from the high of September 114.78, as illustrated in the chart below. With the DXY currently positioned at multi-month highs, surpassing trend line resistance, and with the 200-day moving average at the 103.50 vicinity, we anticipate the corrective rally in the DXY to recommence after the Jackson Hole event, progressing towards the subsequent upside level, represented by the peak of May 104.69. This would be followed by year-to-date highs at 105.88. It's noteworthy that the 50% retracement of the five-wave decline, spanning from the high of October 114.78 to the low of July 99.57, stands around 107.20ish. DXY daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

GBP/USD has failed to extend gains despite strong UK CPI data and EUR/GBP could be ripe to break lower and GBP/JPY’s rally is losing steam for now. Source: Bloomberg Pound sterling EUR/GBP GBP/USD United States dollar Forex Euro Manish Jaradi | DFX Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 23 August 2023 The British pound has failed to extend gains against some of its peers following last week’s strong UK inflation data. It could be a sign that some broader fatigue may have started to take effect given the over 20% rise since late 2022. Higher-than-expected UK core consumer price index (CPI) has sealed the case for a 25-basis-point hike by the Bank of England (BOE) next month. However, the pound has failed to benefit much from the repricing higher. Stretched speculative long pound positioning, overbought conditions, and the possibility that the tightening could be in the price explain the reduced sensitivity of the pound. Furthermore, while inflation is well above BOE’s comfort range and wage growth remains solid, some of the forward-looking price and activity indicators point to downward momentum in underlying price pressures. GBP/USD monthly chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD: Not out of the woods yet On technical charts, GBP/USD has rebounded slightly from the tough converged cushion on the 89-day moving average, the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts, and the end-June low of 1.2600 – a possibility highlighted in the previous update. However, from a short-term perspective, the pair is not out of the woods yet – GBP/USD needs to crack above the end-July high of 1.3000 for the immediate bearish pressure to fade. Until then, the short-term bias remains sideways to down. That’s because of fatigue emerging on higher timeframe charts. On the monthly charts, GBP/USD has run into a stiff barrier, including the 89-month moving average, the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud, and a downtrend line from 2014. This month’s drop below the July low has raised the risk that the consolidation could extend a bit further. To be fair, this doesn’t mean that the medium-term trend has turned bearish. Indeed, as the previous update pointed out, from a medium-term perspective, the rise in July to a multi-month high has confirmed the higher-tops-higher-bottom sequence since late 2022, leaving open the door for some medium-term gains. Importantly, as pointed out late last year, a new peak this year could be unfolding into something more than just a corrective rebound, that is, it opens the door for a reversal of GBP/USD’s medium-term downtrend published October 3. GBP/USD daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/GBP: renewed leg lower? After a brief respite, EUR/GBP looks ripe for a renewed leg lower – a risk highlighted in the previous update. It is now testing a vital floor at the December low of 0.8550. A decisive break below could pave the way toward the August 2022 low of 0.8350. EUR/GBP weekly chart Source: TradingView GBP/JPY: rally stalls at resistance GBP/JPY’s rally has stalled at a crucial resistance on the upper edge of a rising pitchfork channel since early 2023. A negative divergence on the daily charts (rising price associated with declining 14-day Relative Strength Index) indicates that this year’s rally is losing steam. Still, the cross needs to fall below immediate support at the July high of 184.00 for the upward pressure to fade temporarily. Only a break below the July low of 176.25 would puncture the broader uptrend. GBP/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Despite Asian markets being mixed, European stock indices are expected to open slightly higher after another positive session for Wall Street as U.S. long dated yields retreat from yesterday's highs and the greenback appreciates. The 10-year Treasury yield came off its 16-year high at 4.366% and slid back to 4.30%, a welcome respite from the steep bond sell-off. Nvidia's (after the bell) earnings now take centre stage and will probably provide some volatility ahead of Thursday's Jackson Hole symposium. Option trades imply an over 10% swing for Nvidia shares in either direction by the end of the week. Beforehand a plethora of European and US flash PMIs might also be of interest to traders.

Thanks for sharing @Sureforex All the best - MongiIG

Thanks for sharing @tradinglounge All the best - MongiIG

Charting the Markets: 22 August Procyclical AUD/USD and EUR/JPY find relief as US dollar dips. Indices rise on improved risk sentiment (Hang Seng, FTSE 100, S&P 500). Commodities respond to softer USD and modest Chinese rate cuts (gold, silver), while global oil demand concerns weigh on Brent crude oil. Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg | Publication date: Tuesday 22 August 2023 12:02 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Hi @SandySouth Welcome to the IG community. What type of trader are you when using the indicators you have mentioned? Scalper, day trader, swing trader, position trader, algorithmic trader or event-driven trader ? All the best - MongiIG

Brent crude oil rises on China demand optimism but gold, silver prices remain under pressure Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver as the People’s Bank of China slashes its one-year loan prime rate to a record low of 3.45%. Source:Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 August 2023 Brent crude oil price rise on China demand optimism The price of Brent crude oil is on track for its third day of gains on hopes that Chinese authorities would introduce more policy measures to boost economic growth. The People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) easing of its monetary policy on its 1-year loan prime rate to a record low of 3.45% has been interpreted by traders as a step in the right direction with the oil price heading back up towards its early August high at $85.93. Further up sits the 4 August high at $86.55 ahead of the current August peak at $87.83. While the early August and last week’s lows at $82.81 to $82.31 underpin, the medium-term uptrend in Brent crude oil remains intact. Source: ProRealTime Gold price continues to slide The one-month decline in the price of gold is ongoing with the mid-March low at $1,886 about to be reached. Further down beckons the March $1,872 to $1,870 price gap. The one-month resistance line at $1,894 caps any attempt of a bounce for now, above which linger the minor psychological $1,900 mark and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,908. While the precious metal price remains below it, overall downside pressure should remain in play. Source: ProRealTime Silver still range trades above its $22.12 June low Silver’s decline from its $25.26 per troy ounce two-month high has taken it to a seven-week low at $22.23, to marginally above the $22.12 June low, last week. The precious metal remains within its downtrend channel and below last week’s $23.01 high. While it and the next higher 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.30 cap on a daily chart closing basis, the medium-term downtrend retains the upper hand. Only a drop through the June and current August lows at $22.23 to $22.12 would most likely result in a fall towards the psychological $20.00 region taking place. Source: ProRealTime

Charting the Markets: 21 August Stock indices steady as PBOC reduces its 1-year loan prime rate to a record low. EUR/GBP stabilises, GBP/USD drops on UK retail sales while USD/JPY tops out. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 August 2023 And Brent crude oil rises on China demand optimism but gold, silver prices remain under pressure. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

The AUD/USD marked its fifth consecutive week of losses, beset by a constant barrage of negative news both from within Australia and abroad. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Australian dollar Federal Reserve China Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 21 August 2023 Declines amidst global and domestic pressures The AUD/USD marked its fifth consecutive week of losses, beset by a constant barrage of negative news both from within Australia and abroad. These included concerns over the Chinese economy, rising US yields, and softer Australian wages and jobs data. With a 4.75% drop in August and limited data on the Australian economic calendar for the week ahead, the prospects of an Australian dollar recovery now hinge on offshore events, which have begun on a disappointing note. China's influence and disappointing rate cuts Reports over the weekend about Chinese authorities discussing measures to stabilize the Chinese economy, including adjustments to real estate credit policies, raised expectations of a 15bp cut to both the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates. However, the actual outcome fell short, as the short-term 1-year loan rate saw a 10bp cut to 3.45%, while the five-year rate remained unchanged at 4.20%. This led to investor disappointment, reflected in the AUD/USD dropping from .6410 to a low of .6394 before recovering to .6400. Jackson Hole economic symposium Later this week, the annual central banker's conference, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, will take place. Expectations are for speeches by Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde. While no new signals on monetary policy are anticipated due to data dependency, the possibility of a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell due to strong US economic data remains a risk. AUD/USD technical analysis In the previous week's AUD/USD analysis, we reiterated our bearish stance, emphasizing that a sustained break below support at .6460/50ish could pave the way for a test of the downside support level at .6350. The .6360/50 support level holds immense importance for the AUD/USD, stemming from the uptrend support from the Covid March 2020 low of .5509 and the .6170 low of October 2022. Experience shows that multi-week/month trend support levels seldom break on the first attempt. Hence, as long as the AUD/USD remains above the weekly uptrend support at .6360/50, a bounce is plausible. This could potentially drive the AUD/USD to test resistance at .6500c and potentially exceed it in a counter-trend rally. However, it's crucial to note that if the .6350 support level gives way, there's limited downside support until .6200/.6170 (October 2022 low), and even further down to .6000c. AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of August 21, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

Stock indices steady as PBOC reduces its 1-year loan prime rate to a record low Outlook on FTSE 100, CAC 40 and Nasdaq 100 as the People’s Bank of China seeks to strike a balance between helping the faltering Chinese economy and stemming further weakness in the yuan. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 August 2023 FTSE 100 stabilises at support Following six consecutive days of falling prices, the FTSE 100 managed to find support between its March and July lows at 7,216 last week and is little changed on Monday morning as the economic calendar is empty. Asian stock indices also didn’t provide much direction despite the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) having eased its monetary policy on its 1-year loan prime rate to a record low of 3.45%. The 10 basis-point (bp) cut was less than the 15 bp cut traders had hoped for and together with the unexpectedly unchanged 5-year rate at 4.20% painted a mixed picture for stocks. The UK blue-chip index is expected to trade in a low volatility trading range above its 7,228 to 7,204 major support zone on Monday. Minor resistance can be found at the 24 March low at 7,331 and more significant resistance between the May and June lows at 7,401 to 7,433. Source: ProRealTime CAC 40’s trades back around the 200-day simple moving average Last week the rout in the French CAC 40 index nearly reached the May to July lows at 7,083 to 7,053 before rising back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,149 on China growth concerns, US yields rising to 2008 levels and as China's Evergrande filed for bankruptcy protection in New York. On Monday further sideways trading around the 200-day SMA remains at hand with the June low at 7,105 offering minor support. Resistance can be found between the early August lows at 7,210 to 7,218. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 stabilises above last week’s two-month low The Nasdaq 100’s summer decline amid rising longer dated US yields last week took it to a fresh two-month low at 14,554 before levelling out ahead of this week’s Jackson Hole symposium which will take place from Thursday until Saturday. Last week’s trough at 14,554 and the 14,530 late May high continue to offer support while minor resistance can be spotted at the July low at 14,920. Source: ProRealTime

Fitch’s US rating downgrade highlights concerns surrounding US debt, but is this enough to press the ‘risk off’ button? Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 03 August 2023 14:47 IG financial analyst @AngelineOng caught up with Shard Capital’s @Bill_Blain to find out why he thinks the US jobs report is the bigger risk event. (Video Transcript) Eye on global assets Hello, I'm Angeline Ong, and welcome to IG's Trading the Markets. Here to discuss the outlook for global assets, now that investors have had a bit of time to digest the fit downgrading the US's credit rating is Bill Blain, strategist and head of alternative assets at Shard Capital. AO: Bill, there seem to be two camps out there. Some brokerages say the downgrade is unlikely to result in a sustained drag on US financial markets. And then there's another camp, there's CEO Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan, of course, calling Fitch the move ridiculous, and Janet Yellen saying it's based on outdated data. Which camp are you in? BS: Well, I'm on the side that says Fitch are absolutely right to be raising the risks of increased political conflict in the US. They call it governance in the full statement. Now, some of the points they make about the US budget deficit and the sustainability are all fair points, but, you know, I don't think that we face, in normal circumstances, a risk of the US defaulting. It's simply not going to happen. They can press the printing press button and print more money to get into that situation. Now, that has consequences for the currency yield. But the key thing that this report highlights is rising political risk. And it's interesting that it came the same day that former President Trump was indicted on effectively treason charges against the US. Now, that risk of increased polarisation and increased conflict in terms of the debt ceiling and all the negotiations that go around that, that's what we're really looking at in terms of what the risks identified here are. Fitch shakes things up AO: Bill, I've been watching the reaction to Fitch, and at first there was a bit of a judder, as you rightly pointed out, but then it started stabilising across different asset classes. There were some Asian stocks and markets that still registered losses earlier today, but it seems to have come into a more even keel. What do you think this means for investors who were slightly concerned and thinking, perhaps I should change my allocation, or should they stand pat and watch out for perhaps another set of figures that might give us better direction? BS: You know, we've got some really interesting other numbers coming up. And, you know, later today, some of the big tech companies will be reporting earnings. If they come in weaker than expected, that's going to fuel the sentiment that's developing that tech earnings are getting overstated in terms of their valuations. We've also got an absolutely critical number on Friday, which is the US employment report. And the suspicion there is that the resilience or the apparent resilience of the US economy and the fact that it seems to be heading towards that holy grail of a soft landing, that's actually a lagging effect in terms of the 13 interest rate hikes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has made. People now think the US economy may not be as strong as we thought it was, as resilient as we thought it was. And if that happens, that's going to really impact expectations in the stock markets. So, every day, you have some earnings or some economic numbers. It's just when you have Apple reporting and then you have the big monthly employment data, they really have the capability to shake markets. So, on top of yesterday's shock and surprise from the downgrade, which does have implications for big investors and then maybe a little bit of a dent in the over-rosy expectations for tech stocks, and then the resilience of the economy being damaged, together they amount to quite a substantial shock for investors. And we could see something of correction in the equity markets as a result. Of course, if they come in stronger than expected, then everyone will rejoice, and they'll start spending more money again and buying stocks and everything will go stratospheric again. The market as a ' voting machine' AO: Speaking of a correction or a reset, some think that perhaps there might be a buying window later this year, maybe even this quarter. What are your thoughts on that and what would you look out for before making this decision? BS: I certainly have thought about this: we're not going to have a kind of major devastating crash of the kind that we saw in the 1920s. No, I'm not old enough to remember it personally, but I do remember very well what happened in 2007 and 2008. I don't think we're heading for that kind of thing, but I think we're going to see certainly the current market uncertainties and instabilities mean that some kind of reset, some kind of rationalisation of expectations is more likely to occur than not, because there are so many things that investors are beginning to fear. Now, one of the things you've got to remember is that markets are not clever. They are not omnipotent. All that the market is, is a voting machine, and it sums up what everybody thinks collectively and has waited for the amount that they spend to back that thinking. And that really depends on sentiment, and we've got a lot of sentiment issues coming up just now. We've got things like rising consumer debt, which is on top of the inflation effects, biting into discretionary spending, things like cars, for example. We've also got corporates under trouble because they can't refinance themselves. Credit conditions are tightening. We've got concerns about the banking sector in terms of how much they hold of underwater debt. You've also got things like, as I've talked about earlier, politics is going to be, you know, we're running into an election cycle in the US and the UK, which are both going to be extremely polarising. If you take all these things together and a host of other things, like just how overvalued the tech sector looks because of this AI bubble, and all these things point to some kind of correction. That's my expectation. Other people think that markets are going to go higher and that we will see inflation drop completely, and that should boost the chances of interest rates being cut, which would obviously be very positive. AO: We have to leave it there. Interesting stuff. Bill Blaine there, sharing his thoughts on the Fitch downgrade and where financial assets will go for the rest of this year. Bill Blaine, strategist and head of alternative assets at Star Capital.

As the Bank of England predicts inflation will hit 10.2% later this year, the FTSE 100 offers an excellent selection of defensive stocks. Source: Bloomberg Shares Inflation Recession Economy Stock Bank of England Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Last week, the Bank of England set in stone that which investors have been afraid to hear. Whilst increasing the base rate to 1%, it predicted that double-digit inflation will see the UK’s economy contract by 0.25% in 2023. While the country should avoid a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of falling GDP), Governor Andrew Bailey admitted that ‘it is a very obviously sharp slowdown in activity.’ But MPC member Huw Pill has rejected the notion that the UK is headed for stagflation, saying ‘we are not headed in that direction.’ However, Capital Economics expects the base rate to strike 3% next year, arguing that the ‘weakening economy won’t do the MPC’s job.’ And given the Bank’s inflationary track record, investors are understandably nervous about the economy’s future trajectory. Meanwhile, Chancellor Rishi Sunak is resisting calls to increase financial support for the economy despite poor local elections results. And as equities fall, the pound drops, and growth stalls, many investors are recalibrating their portfolios in favour of defensive stocks to combat the spectre of recession. FTSE 100 Defensive Stocks The widespread appeal of defensive stocks is that they usually outperform the market during recessions. Regardless of external events, their dividends, earnings and share prices usually remain comparatively stable, because they offer a product or service for which there is consistent demand. This could be because they hold a dominant market position, hold a reputation for value for money, or even provide the bare necessities. In investor vernacular, the best stocks within defensive sectors benefit from ‘inelasticity of demand,’ making them ‘safe havens.’ If they raise prices to tackle inflation, consumers will almost always still buy the product or service. And with UK growth grinding to a halt, increased investment in defensive stocks grants investors the ability to protect their wealth from inflation whilst minimizing their stock market risk. Source: Bloomberg Best FTSE 100 defensive sectors Happily, for UK investors, the FTSE 100 is packed with some of the best defensive sector stocks. First and foremost is Consumer Staples, which is the sector with companies that sells essential products and services. FTSE 100 examples include stalwarts like AB Foods, Tesco, Unilever, and British American Tobacco. Consumers will always purchase food, household products, and tobacco, regardless of financial means or the wider economic picture. Second is the Healthcare sector. There is consistent demand for medical treatments every year, as well as financial incentives to develop new drugs. And as a consequence of the covid-19 pandemic, there is strong political consensus that FTSE 100 healthcare companies are to be backed for future preparedness. Giants GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca are excellent examples. Third is the Utilities sector. The risk-reward ratio is currently elevated as the global transition towards renewables amid climate goals and the rejection of Russian fossil fuels. But the need for electricity, gas, and water will never subside. FTSE 100 exemplars include National Grid and Centrica. Finally, telecommunication is an excellent defensive sector, as consumer demand for mobile phones and broadband services remains consistent. While some growth may now be found from the expansion into 5G and superfast internet, demand for connectivity means that titans like BT and Vodafone are unlikely to see weakened demand, even if recession strikes. Of course, there’s a strong argument that growth stocks, having taken a hammering so far in 2022, are now at excellent buy-in points. For example, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite is down 23% year-to-date. Both ARK Innovation ETF and Scottish Mortgage are in the doldrums despite previous years of outperformance. And there’s no knowing where the bottom might be. Moreover, FTSE 100 stocks like the oil majors BP and Shell, or mining giants Rio Tinto and Anglo American, currently offer far better returns than those in the defensive sectors. However, the cyclical nature of commodities does leave investors at the mercy of demand volatility. And as rising inflation and interest rates continue to increase the risk of a full-blown recession, the hallmark consistency of FTSE 100 defensive stocks becomes ever more appealing. Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today. * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2021

Coinbase’s share price has skyrocketed by an eye-watering 180% this year. With the Q2 quarterly report and the ongoing unsettled with the SEC, the upcoming earnings date is poised to be a major highlight on investors' calendars. Source: Bloomberg Shares Coinbase U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Revenue Security Cryptocurrency Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 03 August 2023 Coinbase Q2 Earnings Date: Coinbase is scheduled to report its second quarter (Q2) earnings after the market closes on the 3rd of August, 2023. Coinbase Q2 Earnings Expectation: EPS: $-0.62 (vs $-1.23 in Q2, 2022) Revenue: $640.41M (vs 865.38M in Q2,2022) Coinbase Q2 Earnings Key Watch Points Subscription and Services Revenue: Based on Coinbase's guideline published with its first-quarter earnings, the trading platform is optimistic that the momentum in its subscription and services revenue will carry over into the second quarter. According to the Q1 results, Coinbase experienced substantial growth in revenue from subscriptions and services, which increased by 16% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $361.7 million. This growth was largely attributed to the rising market capitalization of Crypto assets and increased market volatility during that period. However, the company is also aware that despite the continued uptrend in market capitalization in the second quarter, the overall market volatility has notably slowed down. In fact, during the first month of the second quarter, the volatility in the Crypto market was 25% lower than the average seen in Q1. As a result, Coinbase expected the Q2’s revenue from subscriptions and services to stay relatively close to the Q1 level, estimating it to be around $300 million. Source: Coinbase Q1 earnings report Cost-efficiency Early this year, Coinbase anticipated that the company's transaction expenses for the second quarter can be kept in the low and mid-teens, in line with the results from the first quarter, which were at 13%. However, a sharp increase in sales and marketing expenses is also anticipated. The company projects that the money spent on sales and marketing could increase from $64 million to $80-$90 million, potentially substantially increasing its percent of net revenue. Additionally, the cost of technology development, combined with general administrative expenses, is also expected to increase from $596 million to $600-$650 million. Source: Coinbase Q1 earnings report SEC Lawsuit In June, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Coinbase, accusing the company of operating as an unregistered securities exchange and identified 13 cryptocurrencies traded on the platform as securities. The alleged securities may subject Coinbase to SEC supervision, but the company has opted not to register with the commission. Now, it appears that the company's future heavily depends on the outcome of the court case. Hence, it’s also crucial for the company to restore the shareholders' confidence at this very critical timing. Coinbase Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, resurging concerns surrounding the SEC lawsuit have caused the price to pull back from its peak of the year, reaching near $110 in July. Notably, the price has also broken through the mid-term ascending trendline and is currently facing challange at the 20-day MA. In the near-term, the key support level to watch will be at $90, and a further decline from there could open the floor to its mid-March peak at $83. On the flip side, the 20-day MA at around $94 will continue to be a crucial level for the price to resume its bull-biased momentum before establishing a renewed uptrend. Source: IG

While Asian markets suffered further losses overnight following the US downgrade, overall the reaction has been much more muted than was the case during the 2011 downgrade. The moves were largely confined to equities, and both US bonds and the dollar were much calmer about the move by Fitch. Attention now shifts to the Bank of England meeting - a 25 basis point rise is the universal expectation. Any more hawkish move would be a big surprise and unnerve many. The bank is expected to strike a cautious tone following the latest UK CPI reading. Beyond this, investors are awaiting the big earnings reports of the week from tech giants Apple and Amazon.

In anticipation for Walt Disney's Q2 earnings report, we explore the state of its share price in a volatile market, the challenges it faces with declining theme park attendance and streaming subscribers. Source: Bloomberg Shares The Walt Disney Company Streaming media Revenue Bob Iger Wall Street Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 02 August 2023 Anticipated earnings report: A deep dive into Walt Disney's performance Standing as a prominent leader in the global entertainment industry, The Walt Disney Company expertly orchestrates a wide range of business operations. With its expansive and diversified portfolio, Disney has created an enviable stronghold in the market, setting high competitive standards that few can rival. As the entertainment behemoth continues to shape and influence the entertainment industry, the eyes of the world are keenly set on their upcoming second quarter (Q2) earnings announcement, scheduled for after market close on Wednesday, 9th August 2023. A recap of Walt Disney's performance Walt Disney's Q2 revenues and profits generally met market forecasts. The top line saw a 13% boost, rising from $19.2 billion last year to $21.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding non-recurring items, fell 14% to $0.93, while the company's unadjusted earnings climbed from $0.26 per share to $0.69 per share. Looking closely at the figures, the parks division expanded by 17%, whilst the core media business saw a modest growth of 3%. Concerningly, the streaming segment shed approximately four million subscribers during the three months, reducing total subscriber figures from 163.17 million to 157.8 million. "We're pleased with our achievements this quarter, including the enhanced financial performance of our streaming business, which reflects the strategic changes we've been implementing throughout the company to realign Disney for sustained growth and success," remarked Robert A. Iger, Chief Executive Officer. Disney Q2 results for 2023 chart Source: Walt Disney Anticipating Walt Disney's Q2 results Investors will be looking to validate recent reports of declining attendance at Disney’s Theme Parks over the past few months. They will also seek to determine the impact of fewer NBA games and the weakest advertising market in nearly fifteen years on revenues. The market will closely monitor the anticipated loss of around 2.6 million streaming subscribers this quarter and how costs are being managed. Underperforming recent releases such as "The Little Mermaid" and "Elemental" are expected to dampen studio performance. Key financials As for Wall Street's expectations for the forthcoming results, they are as follows: Earnings per share: $0.98 adjusted vs $0.93 in Q2 Revenue: $22.49 billion vs $21.8 billion in Q2. Walt Disney’s revenue Source: TradingEconomics Walt Disney's share price analysis and projections Walt Disney’s share price witnessed a 58% drop from its $203.02 high of March 2021 to its late last year low of $84.07. It continues to trade slightly above its Covid crash low of $79.07. Walt Disney weekly chart Source: TradingView As depicted in the daily chart below, the share price of Walt Disney has been boxed in a range below $105 since March of this year and above support at $84.00. While a break lower should not be pre-empted, the price action has been lacklustre, and a sustained breach of support at $84.00 could lead to a retest of the Covid crash low of $79.07. To mitigate the downside risks, the share price must first reclaim the resistance coming from the 200-day moving average at $96.00, followed by resistance from recent highs in the $103/105 area. Walt Disney weekly chart Source: TradingView Earnings report release and share price summary Walt Disney is scheduled to report its Q2 earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, 9th August 2023. Ahead of the release, the share price continues to trade heavily, with the Covid crash low looming in sight.

Explore the implications of the DXY's resurgence, Fitch's downgrade of US credit ratings, and how these shifts could influence the US job market and economy. Source: Bloomberg United States Fitch Ratings Credit rating Inflation Employment Labour economics Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 02 August 2023 Fitch downgrades United States' credit rating The US dollar Index, the DXY, experienced continued recovery overnight, as US yields escalated despite weaker economic data. In a move that the US dollar has capitalised on today, ratings agency Fitch downgraded the United States’ long-term credit ratings from AAA to AA+ post the US equity and bond market closure, at approximately 7.15 am this morning AEST. The warning signs of a potential downgrade surfaced in May as debt ceiling negotiations remained stagnant. Today, Fitch justified its decision by citing a consistent deterioration of governance and "a high and growing general government debt burden." Implications of Fitch's downgrade and data indicators. While this move is not predicted to have a lasting impact on asset prices in the near term, it has triggered a mild bout of risk aversion today. This response is influenced by the overnight pullback in equities and weak China PMI and ISM data. Within the ISM data, which increased slightly to 46.4 in July (from 46 in June) for the ninth consecutive month in contractionary territory, the Employment subindex declined to 44 from 48.1 in June. The reduction in the ISM Employment component, which suggests potential job cuts, was supported by the drop in JOLTS Job openings to 9.582m - their lowest level in two years. This data sets the scene for this Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data. What to expect from non-farm payrolls During the FOMC meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that some cooling in the labour market is necessary to manage inflation. Market predictions for non-farm payrolls suggest an increase by 200k in July, compared to the previous month’s 209k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%, while wage growth is projected to slightly decrease to 0.3% MoM compared to 0.4% in June. This decrease would result in the annual rate easing to 4.2% YoY from 4.4%. DXY technical analysis In the first half of 2023, the DXY tested and maintained support at 101.00/80 on three separate occasions before dipping lower due to last month’s softer-than-expected inflation data. As we highlighted in our update last week, the swift rebound back above 101.00/80 revealed the post-CPI sell-off to the 99.57 low as a false break lower. For those adhering to Elliott Wave, this is perceived as Wave V low, following the completion of a five-wave impulsive sequence from the 114.78 September high, as illustrated on the chart below. With the DXY making gains over the past 24 hours, it is now meeting resistance at 102.00/40. A sustained break above (two consecutive daily closes) would significantly enhance the probability that the wave count on the chart below is accurate. In such a scenario, we anticipate a stronger recovery towards trend line resistance and the 200-day moving average at the 103.65/85 area. Should the DXY index then surpass resistance at 103.65/85, the next upside levels are the May high of 104.69, followed by year-to-date highs at 105.88. DXY daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of August 2, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

Asian stocks look set for a subdued open, following a mixed showing in Microsoft and Alphabet’s result releases after-market. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Federal Reserve Inflation Federal Open Market Committee Central bank Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 26 July 2023 Market Recap Wall Street saw a drift higher overnight (DJIA +0.08%;S&P 500 +0.28%; Nasdaq+0.61%), uplifted by outperformance in the technology (+1.2%) and materials (+1.8%) sectors, but after-market moves were more subdued following Microsoft and Alphabet’s result releases. Both big tech companies beat top and bottom-line estimates, but market participants are finding some unease with the weaker-than-expected revenue guidance from Microsoft, which overshadowed its current Q4 resilience. Continued weakness in the PC market was to be blamed, likely to be cushioned by consistent growth momentum in its Intelligent Cloud segment, but coming off a 46.5% year-to-date rally, much may be priced for perfection. Its share price is down 4% after-hours. The US$327.00 level could serve as a key support confluence level (trendline support, 50-day MA, Ichimoku) to hold in the near term, with the broader trend still leaving the formation of any new higher low on watch. But for now, some defending will have to come from buyers tonight, as its relative strength index (RSI) is flirting with the key 50 level. Past three interactions since April this year were met with some support, so one to watch if it can hold this time round as well. Source: IG charts On the other hand, Alphabet managed to surprise on a stronger-than-expected rebound in advertising and steady growth in its cloud-computing unit, which may validate the resilience in economic conditions thus far. Improving year-on-year revenue growth for the second straight quarter also provides some conviction for the worst-is-over view, with further recovery expected over coming quarters. Ahead, all eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome. The Fed funds futures suggest that a 25 basis-point (bp) hike has been fully priced, but expectations for subsequent rate path remain misaligned with policymakers’ views. Broad market pricing are looking for an extended rate pause through the rest of the year, while Fed officials could likely leave the door open for one more rate hike in the September or November meeting. Interpretation of the Fed’s rate path will revolve heavily around Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a subdued open, with Nikkei -0.34%, ASX +0.13% and KOSPI -0.54% at the time of writing. Chinese equities had a strong positive reaction yesterday to China’s recent stimulus pledge, with the Hang Seng Index up 4.3% in a single trading session. But much will still depend on the Politburo meeting outcome for any follow-through, with strong stimulus hopes in place also providing room for disappointment if the stimulus details were to lack conviction. The economic calendar will leave Australia’s Q2 inflation rate on the radar. Despite keeping its rate on hold at the previous meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shown a clear intention to be on the lookout for incoming data to guide its next decision. Off the back of recent firm labour data, rate expectations saw a hawkish build-up for another 25 bp hike from the central bank over coming months, but better-than-expected progress in inflation may likely challenge that. Current expectations are for headline inflation to fall to 6.2% YoY from 7%. The RBA's preferred measure of core inflation, the Trimmed Mean, is expected to fall to 6.0% YoY from 6.6% previously. Perhaps one to watch may be the AUD/NZD, which has recently bounced off a resistance-turned-support trendline but is currently hovering just below its 1.091 level of resistance. A move in the RSI back above the 50 level marked an attempt for buyers to retain control, as moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) attempts for a cross above the key zero line. Any successful move above the 1.091 level could potentially pave the way to retest its year-to-date high at the 1.108 level next. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: US dollar on watch in the lead-up to the FOMC meeting outcome The US dollar has attempted to reclaim its key psychological 100.00 level ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome but some reservations are still in place, with a bearish shooting star candle in formation on the daily chart overnight. This follows after a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent sell-off. The recent CFTC data also revealed that the aggregate dollar positioning versus G10 currencies have headed further into net-short territory last week, turning in its highest net-short positioning since June 2021. While the Fed is likely to keep the door open for another rate hike after July, we are still nevertheless treading in the final phase of the Fed’s hiking cycle. A hawkish tone from the central bank could be supportive of the US dollar, but given the broader downward trend on lower highs and lower lows, any upside could still leave any formation of a new lower high on watch. Near term, the 101.30 may serve as immediate resistance to overcome, while on the other hand, failing to hold the key 100.00 level could pave the way back towards its July low at the 99.20 level for a retest. Source: IG charts Tuesday: DJIA +0.08%; S&P 500 +0.28%; Nasdaq +0.61%, DAX +0.13%, FTSE +0.17%

The US dollar resumed strengthening again today as yields go north; the Fed’s Kashkari hit the wires warning of potential labour market strains and the Bank of Japan is allowing bond yields to go higher. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities United States dollar Japan United States Bank Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | IG | Publication date: Tuesday 01 August 2023 09:05 The US dollar has found strength to start the week against most major currency pairs except for the Aussie and Kiwi dollars after some firm Chinese PMI data. Source: DailyFX China's manufacturing PMI spurs regional growth The market tends to place more emphasis on manufacturing PMI due to the wider implications for economic activity. Economists had expected a print below 49.0. A rosier outlook for China has led to growth-linked sectors in the region receiving a boost. The Korean KOSDAQ and the Hang Seng China Enterprise indices took the lead, adding over 2% today. The broader Hang Seng Index (HSI) reached a three-month high. Commodity prices shift amid USD strength Gold trended lower, heading toward US $1,950, as a result of a stronger USD, while crude oil also dipped. The WTI futures contract hovered slightly above US $80 bbl, while the brent contract was near US $84.40 bbl at the time of writing. US Federal reserve and JGBs impact the market On Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari appeared on US television, subtly shifting from his previously strong hawkish perspective. He commented on inflation moving in the right direction, potentially at the cost of the labor market. Concurrently, Treasury yields rose by a few basis points across most of the curve. The ten-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) traded at its highest yield since 2014 above 0.60%, following Friday's Bank of Japan adjustment to yield curve control (YCC). The Bank declared an unscheduled bond-buying program today of 300 billion yen in the five-to-ten-year section of the yield curve. Japanese yen lags behind amid mixed economic data The Japanese yen underperformed, with USD/JPY heading toward 142.00 once again. This occurred amid mixed economic data from Japan, with retail sales exceeding expectations while industrial production fell short. Source: DailyFX Upcoming key decisions and reports Euro-wide GDP and CPI data will be released today. Following this, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to make a decision on monetary policy, ahead of the Bank of England on Thursday. USD technical analysis The DXY (USD) index stabilized again today after reaching a two-week high last Friday. Remaining above the ten-and 21-day simple moving averages (SMA), this could suggest that short-term bullish momentum may further develop. The next resistance levels might be at the 55-and 100-day SMAs in the 102.40 – 102.60 area. The 103.60 – 103.70 zone may also offer resistance, with a previous peak and the 200-day SMA in that region. Support could emerge at the breakpoint zone near 100.80 or below at the 15-month low of 99.58, just above the April 2022 low of 99.57. USD daily cahrt Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.