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Brent crude oil, gold and silver prices grind higher Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver ahead of this week’s inflation, growth and employment data. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 29 August 2023 Brent crude oil price recovers Brent crude oil’s recovery off Thursday’s $81.68 low is once more trying to reach the August resistance line at $84.46 ahead of last week’s high at $84.70. If overcome, last Monday’s high at $85.54 could be reached next. Short-term upside momentum should remain in play while the $82.81 to $82.31 early and mid-August lows underpin. If not, last week’s low at $81.68 would likely give way with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $80.82 being eyed in this instance. Source: ProRealTime Gold price continues to grind higher The gold price’s rally off its $1,885 per troy ounce one-month low is ongoing with it grinding higher towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,932. Above it resistance can be found between the mid-July low and 4 August high at $1,946 to $1,947. Support is likely to be offered by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,913. Further minor support sits at last Friday’s high at $1,904 low, at the $1,893 late June low and more important support at last week’s $1,885 trough. Currently unexpected failure at $1,885 would lead to the mid-March price gap between $1,872 to $1,870 being targeted. Source: ProRealTime Silver rally stuck below last week’s $24.38 high for now Silver’s rally off its seven-week low at $22.23, made marginally above its $22.12 June low, has been followed by an over 8% rally to last week’s $24.38 high before it stalled. If overcome, the June peak at $24.52 would be targeted next, ahead of the July peak at $25.26. Minor support is seen a long way off along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.58. Source: ProRealTime

Stock indices track Asia higher Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of today’s U.S. consumer confidence and job openings data. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 29 August 2023 FTSE 100 probes downtrend line The FTSE 100 is trying to break through its July-to-August downtrend line following a prolonged Bank Holiday weekend in the UK during which Chinese authorities cut share dealing stamp duty by 50%. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,490 represents the next upside target ahead of the minor psychological 7,500 mark. The May, June and early August lows at 7,437 to 7,401 should now offer good support. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 probes last week’s high The DAX 40 is revisiting last week’s high at 15,895 on a globally slightly more positive outlook regarding rates following last week’s Jackson Hole symposium and weaker economic data. If 15,895 were to be exceeded despite German consumer morale unexpectedly falling, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,973 would be eyed ahead of the 10 August high at 16,062. This high would need to be exceeded, for a medium-term bullish reversal to be confirmed. Potential slips should find support along the breached one-month resistance line, now because of inverse polarity a support line, at 15,792. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 approaches its July-to-August downtrend line The S&P 500 is still in the process of regaining last Thursday’s sharp losses and nears resistance which sits between the July-to-August downtrend line and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,453 to 4,457. It does so as investors look ahead to today’s U.S. consumer confidence and job openings data. The next higher high at 4,474, seen last week, would need to be exceeded for a bullish reversal to gain traction and put the July peak at 4,607 back on the map. Minor support can be found at the 4,378 July low. Further down lies major support between the June and mid-August lows at 4,337 to 4,328. Source: ProRealTime

Fed Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole brought relief to US equity markets, prompting a positive response and focus now shifts to the Core PCE price index and Non-Farm payrolls data. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares S&P 500 Federal Reserve Inflation United States Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 28 August 2023 US equity markets finished higher on Friday after Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was mainly as expected, noting that the Fed was data-dependent and could lift rates again "if appropriate". Following the Fed chair's speech, the odds of a rate hike in September remained unchanged at a low 20%. However, the rates market is now ~46% priced for a 25bp rate hike in November, up from ~22% three weeks ago. Aside from the higher yields at the front end, Fed Chair Powell's tone at Jackson Hole appeared to have struck the right note for US equity markets. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 snapped their three-week losing streaks, closing 1.68% and 0.82% higher on the week, respectively. This week, the key events on the calendar for US markets are the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index on Thursday and Non-Farm Payrolls and ISM on Friday. What is expected from Non-Farm Payrolls? Friday, 1st September at 10:30 pm AEST The current consensus is for 168,000 job gains in August, slightly lower than the 187,000 in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.5%. Behind the decreased rate of job growth was the bankruptcy of transport company Yellow Corp, which left 30,000 workers without jobs during the survey period. US wage growth is anticipated to moderate to 0.3% month-on-month in August from 0.4%, which would result in the annual rate easing to 4.3% year-on-year from 4.4%. However, at 4.3%, the rate remains well above the 3-3.5% level thought to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target without a rise in productivity. The participation rate is projected to remain unchanged at 62.6%. A softer reading from the upcoming jobs report would provide more flexibility for the Fed to remain on hold beyond September. The rates market is pricing the Fed Funds rate to stay above 5% during the first half of 2024, with about 100 basis points of rate cuts in the second half of next year. US unemployment rate chart Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis In last Monday's update, we wrote: "The correction in the S&P 500 from the 4634.50 July high made fresh lows on Friday at 4350 before some squaring up took place ahead of the weekend. While the recovery could extend ahead of Jackson Hole, the downside correction has further to go." If the S&P 500 continues to stay below the resistance level at 4490/4500, which corresponds to the highs observed in June, July, and the previous week, there is a likelihood for the index to further extend its corrective decline. This decline could potentially lead towards the uptrend support located at 4240 in the forthcoming weeks. Aware that should the S&P 500 see a sustained close above 4500, it would warn that the correction is likely complete and of a retest of the July 4634.50 high. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis The perspective outlined in the previous Monday's update regarding a pre-Jackson Hole bounce, played out effectively, reaching a peak of 15,418 before subsequently retreating towards the trend channel support on Thursday. Providing the Nasdaq remains above trend channel support 14,600 area, it keeps the uptrend intact and, with that, a chance of a retest and break of the 16,062 high into year-end. Aware that if the Nasdaq loses support at 14,600 on a sustained basis, it will likely trigger a deeper decline towards 14,000. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical analysis In last Monday's update we emphasised that the Dow Jones' pullback was nearing completion, under the condition that it maintained support around 34,100. The view for this week is unchanged, and providing the Dow Jones remains above trend channel support of 34,100ish, it keeps the uptrend intact and, with that, a chance of a retest and break of the recent 35,679 high. Aware that if the Dow Jones loses support at 34,100/00 followed by a sustained break of the 200-day moving average at 33,375, it would likely trigger a deeper decline towards 32,500. Dow Jones daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of August 28, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

The AUD/USD breaks its losing streak despite the US dollar's ascent. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Australian dollar Federal Reserve United States Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 28 August 2023 AUD/USD's recent performance Relief for the AUD/USD last week, to snap its worst five-week losing streak since last October when the AUD/USD traded to its post-Covid Crash low of .6170. More on this below. The show of resilience in the AUD/USD came despite the US dollar index cementing a sixth week of gains following Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, which noted that the Fed was data-dependent and that the Fed could lift rates again "if appropriate". Defying broad US dollar strength, the more resilient performance in the AUD/USD last week came about as the sell-off in US equity markets and the rally in US long-end yields abated. Supported also by China announcing more incremental measures to support the economy. While there was an easing of macro headwinds, just as importantly, at least to us, was the test and hold of crucial support at .6360/50, which we highlighted in this article on the AUD/USD here last week. "The .6360/50 support level holds immense importance for the AUD/USD, stemming from the uptrend support from the Covid March 2020 low of .5509 and the .6170 low of October 2022. Experience shows that multi-week/month trend support levels seldom break on the first attempt." The key upcoming drivers for the AUD/USD this week will be a speech by incoming RBA Governor Michele Bullock on Tuesday titled "Climate Change and Central Banks," - the title of which doesn't leave too much room to provide clues about monetary policy, followed by the monthly CPI Indicator on Wednesday. What is expected from the Monthly CPI indicator? The market is looking for the Monthly CPI indicator to fall to 5.2% YoY from 5.4% in June. An inline or softer-than-expected number will see the RBA stay on hold in September. In contrast, a print of 5.7% or higher, representing an unwelcome reacceleration of the Monthly CPI indicator, will see the rates market move to price in some chance of an RBA rate hike by 25bp to 4.35% in September. Currently there are just 5bp of rate hikes priced into the rate market before year-end. AUD/USD technical analysis To recap, in last week's article on the AUD/USD, we noted that, providing the AUD/USD remains above weekly uptrend support at .6360/50 (from the March 2020 .5509 low), a bounce is likely, which could see the AUD/USD test resistance at .6500c and potentially beyond as part of a counter-trend rally. In October 2022, after ending its five-week losing streak, the AUD/USD rallied almost ten big figures from a low of .6170 to a high of .7158 in the sixteen weeks that followed. While we aren't expecting a move of the same magnitude, it is important to be open-minded about what can happen when sentiment becomes too extreme in the AUD/USD. While at the same time, be aware that if the .6360/50 support level goes, there isn't much in the way of downside support until .6200/.6170 (October 2022 low), before .6000c. AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of August 28, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

Wall Street managed to get through the Jackson Hole Symposium unscathed, despite a hawkish takeaway from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last Friday. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Federal Reserve United States Stock Stock market Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 28 August 2023 Market Recap Wall Street managed to get through the Jackson Hole Symposium unscathed (DJIA +0.73%; S&P 500 +0.67%; Nasdaq +0.94%), despite a hawkish takeaway from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell last Friday. The general view may be that market participants were already priced for a hawkish outcome in the lead-up to his speech, which allows room for some unwinding on little surprises. In his speech, the Fed Chair highlighted that the US central bank is prepared to raise interest rates further if needed, noting that a resilient economy comes with risks that inflation could reaccelerate. Rate expectations took that as a sign for an additional hike on the table, with the odds of a November rate hike (25 basis-point) increasing to 48%, up from 33% a week ago. Treasury yields firmed as a result, with the two-year yields edging back to retest its multi-year high around the 5.100% level. This week will bring focus to a series of key macro data, such as the US job report and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, in which the Fed will want to see softer numbers on both fronts to reassure on the success of current tight policies. Aside, overall trading volume may be lighter as we head into the US Labour Day weekend, which could be a trigger for higher volatility. For now, the S&P 500 is attempting to pare back some losses from its Thursday sell-off, after nearing the lower edge of its Ichimoku cloud support on the daily chart. The 4,330 level may be an immediate support to hold, where the neckline of a potential head-and-shoulder formation coincides with its 100-day moving average (MA). Failing to defend this level may potentially pave the way to retest the 4,150 level next. Much may still await on how far the near-term relief may go, considering that we are heading into September, which tends to be the worst month for US equities seasonally. Source: IG charts Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a positive open, with Nikkei +1.31%, ASX +0.47% and KOSPI +0.67% at the time of writing, tapping on the positive handover in Wall Street for some relief to start the new week. Key focus in the region this week may be on Australia’s monthly consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday, followed by China’s purchasing managers index (PMI) data on Thursday. Chinese stocks will once again be in focus, with authorities stepping in to support its stock market with a reduction of the stamp duty on stock trades and a slower pace of initial public offerings. Previous round of reduction in levy on stock trades in September 2008 was met with an initial move higher, but gains were short-lived (lasting for a week) before the CSI 300 index eventually moved to hit a new low. Therefore, while the recent move may be met with a positive reaction in Chinese equities in today’s session, it may still have to take a more sustained recovery in economic conditions to bolster investors’ confidence over the longer term. Recent bounce in the Hang Seng Index has brought the index back to retest the lower bound of its previous consolidation zone on the weekly chart at the 18,500 level, which will serve as near-term resistance to overcome. A bullish moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) formation is seen on the daily timeframe for now, but the lower highs and lower lows since the start of the year still put an overall downward trend in place. Greater conviction for buyers may have to come from a move back above the psychological 20,000 level, where the upper edge of its Ichimoku cloud resistance stands on the weekly chart, which it has failed to overcome on three previous occasions this year. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: Copper prices facing key test of resistance confluence ahead Copper prices have recovered close to 4% over the past two weeks, but are now facing a key test of resistance confluence at the US$8,500/tonne level. This is where a series of MA lines (50-day MA, 100-day MA) stands alongside the upper edge of its Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. Heading past this level may potentially leave the US$8,700/tonne level in sight next. Overall, some indecision is still in place, with its weekly relative strength index (RSI) hovering around the key 50 level, while its weekly MACD flatlines. On the downside, the US$8,145/tonne level may be an immediate support to hold. Source: IG charts Friday: DJIA +0.73%; S&P 500 +0.67%; Nasdaq +0.94%, DAX +0.07%, FTSE +0.07%

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Nvidia has delivered an impressive quarterly result for Q2, 2023. So, what does Nvidia's financial report indicate, and can this upward momentum in its stock price be sustained? Source: Bloomberg Nvidia Shares Stock Price Share price Company Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Thursday 24 August 2023 Nvidia Q2 Earnings Key Takeaway Nvidia's second-quarter financial report has injected a much-needed boost into the recently sluggish stock market, as both revenue and profit have surpassed market expectations. According to Nvidia's Q2 report, the company achieved another record-breaking quarter, with total revenue surging by 88% compared to the previous quarter and doubling to $13.51 billion compared to the same period last year. Earnings per share also saw an astonishing 854% year-over-year increase, aligning with market expectations. What's even more surprising to the market is the substantial increase in Nvidia's profit margin. The company's profit margin skyrocketed from 43.5% in the same period last year to an impressive 70.1%. Source: Nvidia Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized during the post-earnings press conference that a new era of technology has dawned, with global businesses actively embracing faster computing and AI technologies. In the last quarter, several major cloud service providers announced their adoption of Nvidia's H100 artificial intelligence infrastructure. Nvidia's AI chips have already found applications across various industries. Furthermore, Nvidia also announced a stock buyback of 7.5 million shares and the distribution of dividends totaling $3.38 billion. Nvidia's Q3 Outlook Nvidia anticipates that in the third quarter of 2023, the company's total revenue will continue to increase significantly to $16 billion, while profit margins are expected to further optimize from the current 70% to a range between 71.5% and 72.5%. However, despite the company's nearly impeccable fundamentals, Nvidia faces significant risks from policy environment. Nvidia admitted that they anticipated stricter U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China, which will have far-reaching negative implications for the company. Colette Kress, the company's Chief Financial Officer, mentioned during the earnings release that the U.S. government's restrictions on selling AI chips and high-end components to China, which have been in place since September last year, have already had a noticeable impact. Although Nvidia currently sells a lower version of the chip in China, it is still significantly affected. Currently, two-thirds of Nvidia's sales come from markets outside the United States, and losing access to the Chinese market would be a substantial blow to the company. Nvidia's Stock Price Nvidia, after an over 280% stock price surge in 2023, now boasts a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion, solidifying its position as a standout performer in the tech stock arena. Despite a brief dip of over 10% in Nvidia's stock price during the first half of August, primarily attributed to supply constraints and economic outlook concerns, these concerns have steadily faded away. This shift came after Morgan Stanley upgraded Nvidia's target price and reaffirmed their support for AI stocks. Nvidia's stock price started a significant rebound from the short-term bottom at $400 just two days before the earnings report was unveiled, surging by over 20% in a week. It appears that the recent pullback has come to an end. The stock price has broken through multiple resistance levels in the past three days, including the 20-day moving average, the downward trendline, and the previous high around $470-$480. Following the earnings announcement, the stock even breached the psychological barrier of $500. However, it might face some selling pressure at this critical level, prompting some investors to pocket their profits. While Nvidia's valuation is undeniably on the higher side, and its short-term surge has already reflected the company's fundamentals and prospects, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also nearing overbought territory. But the recent pullback has revealed that even when Nvidia experiences short-term retracements, many investors consider it a buying opportunity. Hence, in the medium to long term, the stock's upward momentum is likely to persist. However, as Nvidia's Chief Financial Officer candidly pointed out, the company's most significant risk stems from the policy environment, which is a risk factor investors should pay close attention to.

Stock indices give back gains ahead of Fed Chair speech Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of today’s Jackson Hole symposium Jerome Powell speech. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 August 2023 FTSE 100 on track for first week of gains in a month The FTSE 100 is on track to end the week up for the first time in a month as UK GfK consumer confidence came in at a better-than-expected -25 in August compared to -30 in the previous month. While Thursday’s low at 7,310 underpins, Thursday’s high at 7,385 may be revisited. If overcome, the May, June and early August lows at 7,401 to 7,437 would be in focus. Further up the mid-July high can be made out at 7,481, the one-month resistance line at 7,490 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,495. Minor support below 7,310 can be found between Monday and Wednesday’s lows at 7,262 to 7,251 and major support in the 7,228 to 7,204 region. It consists of the March, July and current August lows. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 gives back this week’s entire gains The DAX 40’s swift reversal lower on Thursday negated all of this week’s gains as traders took money off the table following strong Nvidia earnings. They did so ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole today in which he is expected to reiterate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance. Were he to do so, the DAX could slip back to its July and current August lows at 15,469 to 15,455 with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,439 representing a possible downside target. Minor resistance above the 16,625 to 15,659 early and late May lows can be spotted at the 8 August low at 15,704. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 remains in a medium-term bearish trend Thursday’s Bearish Engulfing pattern on the S&P 500 does not bode well for the bulls as it points to a retest of the June and mid-August lows at 4,337 to 4,328 were Thursday’s low at 4,369 to give way. This may well happen if Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium were to allude to a “higher rates for longer” scenario. Thursday’s high at 4,474 would need to be exceeded for the S&P 500 to form a bottom. At present such a bullish reversal looks unlikely to take place this week. Source: ProRealTime

Australian dollar gains most since end of July and retail traders started unwinding bullish bets. Source: Bloomberg Australian dollar AUD/USD Forex Shares Market sentiment United States dollar Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Thursday 24 August 2023 AUD/USD sentiment outlook: bullish In response to the Australian dollar soaring against the US dollar, retail traders have started to slowly decrease their upside exposure. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, could the Aussie be looking to extend recent gains? The IGCS gauge shows that about 78% of retail traders still remain net-long AUD/USD. Since the vast majority are biased to the upside, this remains to offer a warning that the exchange rate may fall down the road. However, downside exposure has increased by 16.67% and 34.11% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. AUD/USD IG client sentiment chart Source: DailyFX AUD/USD technical analysis Taking a look at the daily chart, AUD/USD has extended gains after failing to breach the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6382. Now, the exchange rate has closed above the 31 May low of 0.6459. From here, immediate resistance is the 20-day moving average, followed by the 50-day line. A bearish 'Death Cross' between the two lines remains in play. It would likely take a confirmatory breakout above the 20-day line to offer a stronger bullish technical conviction. As such, recent gains ought to be treated with a pinch of salt. Confirming a breakout below 0.6382 opens the door to extending the prevailing downtrend since the middle of July. Australian dollar daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Japanese yen making a U-turn against the US dollar and double top chart pattern in focus on the four-hour. Source: Bloomberg USD/JPY Japanese yen United States dollar Forex Relative strength index Technical analysis Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Thursday 24 August 2023 Yen surges against USD The Japanese yen might be showing early warning signs that the currency might be getting ready to reverse against the US dollar. Over the past 24 hours, USD/JPY broke under the 145.07 inflection point that was established in late June. This followed the presence of negative relative strength index (RSI) divergence showing fading upside momentum. That can, at times, precede a turn lower. Now, recent losses have exposed the 20-day moving average (MA) as immediate support. This line may reinstate the near-term upside focus. Otherwise, confirming a breakout below opens the door to extending losses. Still, keep in mind that the rising trendline from March is maintaining the broader bullish technical bias. USD/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView USD/JPY technical analysis Zooming in on the four-hour chart reveals that a double top chart pattern appears to be in play. Prices have closed under the neckline of around 145.07, and this also followed the emergence of negative RSI divergence. Confirmation is lacking at the time of publishing, but immediate support is the 100-period moving average on this timeframe. Breaking under the line may open the door to extending losses that the double top could be insinuating. That places the focus on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 142.99 before the current August low of 141.50 comes into focus. Otherwise, closing above 146.56 opens the door to extending gains towards the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level of 148.27 seen on the daily chart above. USD/JPY four-hour chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

USD retreat on Wednesday could be an early sign of cracks in the rally and USD hurt by below-expected US PMI data. Source: Bloomberg AUD/USD United States dollar Forex Shares United States GBP/USD Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 24 August 2023 Outlook for US dollar vs euro, British pound, Australian dollar There are growing signs that the US dollar could be in the process of making an interim top. To be fair, this wouldn’t necessarily imply that the uptrend is over.  Downbeat US manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index (PMI) on Wednesday triggered a material slide in the US dollar globally, even as euro area and UK factory output contracted. The outsized response to otherwise not-so-bad (single set of) data -- at least in terms of levels of the PMIs compared with its peers – is a reflection of the broader mood. This is especially true given the most recent set of data, including industrial production, retail sales, and housing starts looked solid. DXY index daily chart Source: TradingView Powell's speech eagerly awaited The key focus is now on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Friday at the three-day meeting of central bankers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning Thursday. A balanced, data-dependent assessment could provide an excuse for a further retreat in the US dollar globally. However, if Powell’s tone turns out to be hawkish guided by the recent strong US data, then USD’s retreat could be limited.  DXY index 240-minutes chart Source: TradingView USD rally likely to stall On technical charts, the DXY index (USD index) has been struggling to clear above a stiff barrier on the 200-day moving average and a downtrend line from early 2023. Back-to-back doji/small body candles in recent days coupled with an inverted hammer on Wednesday raise the odds that the USD rally could be about to stall. Zooming on to the hourly charts, any break below the immediate converged floor at 102.50-1.0300, including the 89-period moving average and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the 240-minute charts would confirm that the upward pressure had faded. EUR/USD 240-minutes chart Source: TradingView EUR/USD: awaiting confirmation of a low EUR/USD is holding above a crucial floor at the 89-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. While a necessary condition to ensure a low is in, the hold above support on its own isn’t sufficient to conclude the worst is over. The pair would need to rise above the initial resistance at 1.0900-1.0950 for the immediate downside risks to fade. Subsequent resistance is at the August 10 high of 1.1065.  GBP/USD: settles in a range GBP/USD appears to have settled in a narrow range this month of 1.2600-1.2800. The lower edge also coincides with the 89-day moving average, the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart, and the end-June low of 1.2600. There is plenty of support under 1.2600 to limit any downside, including the 200-day moving average and the May low of 1.2300. On the upside, GBP/USD needs to rise above the August 10 high of 1.2820 for the immediate downward GBP/USD 240-minutes chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD: At vital converged support AUD/USD looks deeply oversold as it tests a vital converged support on the median line of a declining pitchfork channel since June and a downtrend line from the end of 2023. The rise on Wednesday above minor resistance at Tuesday’s high of 0.6450 could be an early sign of a potential turnaround in AUD/USD. A cross above the 89-period moving average and the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the 240-minute charts would be confirmation that AUD/USD had formed a base in the interim.  AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Stock indices rally as Nvidia reports stellar results Outlook on FTSE 100, CAC 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of today’s Jackson Hole symposium. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 August 2023 FTSE 100 benefits from risk-on appetite The FTSE 100 is on track for a second day of gains as it follows Asian stock indices higher ahead of today’s start of the Jackson Hole symposium. The UK blue chip index is now gunning for the May, June and early August lows at 7,401 to 7,437 which may cap it today, though. If not, the mid-July high at 7,481 could be reached as well ahead of the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,501. Slips should find support around Monday’s high at 7,317. Source: ProRealTime CAC 40 on track for fifth consecutive day of gains The French CAC 40 index’s advance on general stock market optimism is on track for its fifth consecutive day of gains, fuelled by stellar Nvidia overnight results. With the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,305 having been exceeded, the July-to-August downtrend line at 7,389 and also the mid-June peak at 7,405 are next in line. Support below the 55-day SMA can be spotted at the late July low at 7,251. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 surges higher on AI driven exceptional Nvidia results The Nasdaq 100’s summer correction has most likely run its course with the index having risen above its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,203 in after-hours trading following Nvidia’s stellar results and $25 billion buy back. The late July low at 15,372 is within reach but may offer short-term resistance. If overcome on a weekly chart closing basis, the July peak at 15,932 will be back in focus. Minor support below the 55-day SMA sits between Tuesday’s high at 15,066 and the minor psychological 15,000 mark. Source: ProRealTime

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The Federal Reserve's central banking symposium gets underway today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The big question is, will it clear the air for the markets on interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic going into Autumn? Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 August 2023 It was a very different story last year where central bankers were fighting runaway inflation and the message was that their respective feet were firmly on their local accelerators. Now it's the balancing act of conquering inflation while trying to maintain what little growth there is around. (Video Transcript) The Fed's central banking meeting Now the Federal Reserve's central banking meeting gets underway in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later on today. We've been on about it all week and I think it's worth just highlighting exactly what the big pivot point might be when we're looking at the markets and the trading on the rest of today and tomorrow when we get the big statements coming through. Will it clear the air for the markets in terms of where central banks are going in terms of interest rates? The U.S. dollar Yields and the USD are falling ahead at the start of the symposium a little bit later on today. I want to begin first of all with a look at what's been happening with the U.S. dollar. Now don't get me wrong, this plot that we saw yesterday wasn't about the fact that people are expecting a message from Jackson Hole, it was all about purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. But I think certainly some of what's happening in the markets with yields down and the dollar down a little bit on from the highs that we saw yesterday, it might give some hope to the message that the worst of the global inflation shock is behind us. But what may come out is that while the quarter may be in sight, it has yet to be turned and we'll see some of these central banks continue to keep interest rates high. The European Central Bank We know that from market expectations, we know that there is the expectation that the European Central Bank is going to continue with its foot on the pedal. It was a very different story last year when central bankers were fighting runaway inflation. The message was that their respective feet were firmly on their local accelerators. Now it's the balancing act of ensuring inflation seeps away in the hope that it doesn't kill what little fragile growth there is. In yesterday's trade, we went below the total retracement of this Fib in meaning that the euro was weak enough to pull back. Then came the fight back in the euro, not because of the euro up, more so because of that drop we saw in the dollar yesterday. So we're back now above what is this line of support taken down from the Fib, from the lows we had back on the 6th of July at 108.34, currently trading at 108.57. Jackson Hole speeches Where we go from here really does depend very much on what comes out of that symposium. I want to show you the other big cross where we've seen now as of today's trade ahead of the start of the Jackson Hole speeches. We've got a third and we have losses for turning against the US dollar. So it really is a question of where you see the markets and how you think this message is going to be perceived in the markets. We get the big speech tomorrow on Friday coming through from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Technical overview remains cautious on the daily time frame, while bullish on the weekly and, in sentiment, retail trader sell bias rises. Source: Bloomberg Nasdaq Forex Indices Federal Reserve /business/market_index Inflation Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai | Publication date: Thursday 24 August 2023 Disappointing data There were a couple items out of the housing market on offer yesterday where MBA’s weekly mortgage applications reading showed a drop of -4.2%, while new home sales was a beat out of the Census Bureau. But what took the attention were preliminary purchasing managers’ index (PMIs) for the month of August out of S&P Global, and for the US showed ongoing contraction for manufacturing as it dropped from 49 to 47. Services also a miss remaining in expansionary territory at just 51 from 52.3 prior. Yields in retreat, tech outperforming The story was generally worse globally with the services sector falling into contraction in the Euro Zone and the UK, and economic worries rising meant a clear pullback in bond yields. Treasury yields finished the session significantly lower and so too when adjusting for inflation, with the seven-year to 30-year part of the curve back beneath 2% in real terms. Market pricing (Refinitiv) has backed off on rate hike likelihoods for the European Central Bank (ECB) where it’s a coin toss on a 25bp (basis point) hike in September, the Bank of England (BoE) where they no longer anticipate peak 6%, and for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) moving further away from another rate hike even if still a significant minority in November/December. Tech outperforms, Nvidia after-hours boost And a pullback in yields and hopes of less aggressive central bank tightening is always a plus for growth stocks and their lofty valuations. The net result of yesterday’s fundamental updates was to put both tech and communication on top by the close and outperforming as sectors in a session where only energy was in the red, powering the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 to a stronger finish besting both Dow 30 and S&P 500 for the session. Nvidia’s earnings after the market close was an added plus for the index and chipmakers in general, easily beating on earnings and revenue, with better guidance and a decent share buyback offering. Upcoming items We've got the weekly claims as well as durables for the month of July releasing today. As for tomorrow, revised figures out of University of Michigan (UoM) when it comes to consumer sentiment and inflation expectations before focus shifts shortly thereafter to central bank speak with Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Nasdaq technical analysis It was more about fundamental updates than technicals, and the results took price past its previous 1st and 2nd Resistance levels with strong gains for contrarian buy-breakouts and lacking a trigger for cautious conformist sell-after-significant reversals. And then came earnings from Nvidia, giving an additional boost for the index with futures above today's 1st Resistance level already. The overview on the weekly time frame is still ‘bull average’ where price is already hovering near this week’s weekly second resistance level favoring conformist buy-breakout strategies in that time frame. Source: IG CoT speculators shift to middle As for sentiment, a big increase in retail trader sell bias from what was slight sell 53% to 63% and not far off heavy short territory. CoT speculators as per last Friday’s report shifted from majority short 55% to the middle. IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Nasdaq Source: IG Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG * The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. ** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report: outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.

The dollar sways ahead of Jackson Hole The Federal Reserve's central banking symposium gets underway this Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A meeting that is likely to provide a swing point for the markets. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 August 2023 Jackson Hole The Federal Reserve's central banking symposium gets underway this Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A meeting that is likely to provide a swing point for the markets. The big question is: will it clear the air for the markets on where interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic will be going into the autumn? There is hope that the message will be that the worst of the global inflation shock is behind us, but what may come out is that while the corner may be in sight, it has yet to be turned. The USD Yesterday, the USD fluctuated as the purchasing managers' index (PMI) data was released around the globe. Germany's PMI gave a boost to the greenback, but gains were later cancelled by the US manufacturing PM's steeper-than-expected contraction. Oil prices Oil prices fell on the news, while gold rose and recorded its first daily gains this week. Also in the US, initial jobless claims are due at 1.30 p.m. Economists see 240,000 new claimants. And durable goods orders are expected to fall by 4% in July month-over-month (MOM). Hays Hays recorded a profit before tax of $192.1 million. Net fees reached £1.29 billion. The group declared a finacial year (FY) core dividend of 3 pence per share. Hays also announced the appointment of Dirk Hahn as its new CEO, with effect from September 1. At the end of February, the group announced it was looking for a successor to Alistair Cox. Nvidia NVIDIA reported an 88% jump in revenue and topped earnings estimates as its results for the second quarter were driven by demand for Al chips. NVIDIA's performance was driven by its data center business, which includes the A100 and H100 Al chips that are needed to build and run Al applications like ChatGPT. Nvidia reported $10.32 billion in data center revenue, which was up 171% on an annual basis. The group posted adjusted earnings of $2.70 a share vs. $2.09 per share expected. Revenue jumped to $13.51 billion, way above the $11.22 billion expected. NVIDIA anticipates third-quarter revenue of about $16 billion. Dollar Tree Dollar Tree delivers second-quarter earnings before the bell today on Wall Street. The market anticipates earnings of 87 cents per share, roughly half what it earned in the second quarter of 2022. Revenue is forecast to rise by about 6% to $7.18 billion, but same-store sales are expected to continue to shrink. Gap Clothing retailer Gap brings its second quarter after the bell. Second-quarter fiscal 2024 revenue is forecast to come in at $3.58 billion, down 7% on the same quarter a year ago. Analysts also see adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 10 cents, up from 8 cents in the year-ago quarter. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Nvidia's stellar AI driven results and $25 billion buy back helped technology stocks and Asian indices rise across the board. All eyes are now on today's Federal Reserve's central bank symposium at Jackson Hole with stocks rising, yields and the volatility index (VIX) easing ahead of the event. U.S. initial jobless claims and durable goods orders will likely be a minor side show.

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Charting the Markets: 23 August European stock indices stay bid for now. EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD slip on appreciating greenback. And Brent crude oil slips on demand concerns while gold, silver prices rise. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 August 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

FTSE 250 favourite Marks and Spencer, alongside underperformers Crest Nicholson and ABRDN, could be the three best FTSE 250 shares to watch next month. These shares are selected based on certain value investor metrics. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Inflation Share Dividend FTSE 100 Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London The FTSE 250 has experienced an unpleasant August thus far, with the index having now fallen by 6.5% year-to-date to 17,899 points. While this is far above the 16,611 point low of October 2022, it’s also a big drop from the 20,615 points of early February 2023. For context, the UK’s domestically focused index has been relatively volatile this year, perhaps reflecting the wider volatility within the UK economy. Importantly, CPI inflation fell to 6.8% in the year to July, down from 7.9% in June. And with the Bank of England still predicting that this crucial measure will fall to 5% by the end of 2023, this is clearly good news. But this most recent reading masks some potentially worrying trends. Leisure inflation — a good measure of consumer discretionary demand — increased. Services inflation rose to 7.4%, a 30-year record high. And the all-important core inflation metric remained sticky at 6.9%. The picture is complicated by mixed news out of the ‘real’ economy. Companies from Thames Water to Wilko are under serious financial pressure — but others including Marks & Spencer are doing far better than expected. This reflects the complex data underlying UK corporate income; wages including bonuses rose by 8.2% in June, the fastest rate of growth since records began in 2001 — meaning wage growth is now above inflation. On the other hand, retail sales fell by a hefty 1.2% in July underscoring the reality that wages have some time to catch up to the inflation of the past two years. Overall, the markets are expecting the base rate to now peak at 6% — but these predictions seem to change with the winds. It was only a few short weeks ago that Schroders was predicting a terminal rate of 6.5%, and JP Morgan even speculating that it could reach as high as 7%. But where there’s uncertainty, there’s often opportunity. But remember, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Best FTSE 250 shares to watch 1. Marks & Spencer Under the transformational leadership of CEO Stuart Machin, Marks & Spencer Group has gone from strength to strength in 2023. The FTSE 250 company increased its profits guidance last week after declaring a period of ‘strong trading.’ Over the past 19 weeks, food sales have risen by 11% while clothing and homeware is up by over 6%. And the company is selling more items at full price, in stark contrast to competitors who are in the throes of price cuts. The only recent cloud is that chief digital and technology officer Jeremy Pee — who only started in January — is leaving to return to Canada. Regaining its place in the FTSE 100 is now on the cards, with the FTSE 250 stock up 73% year-to-date to 219p. For context, annual revenues came in at £11.9 billion in May, a full £1 billion higher than in the prior full year. As a caveat, it’s worth considering that the tighter monetary environment may make achieving growth less complex than maintaining it. 2. Crest Nicholson Crest Nicholson issued in some ways the opposite guidance to investors this morning, warning that full-year adjusted profit before tax is now expected to be circa £50 million, down from analyst expectations of £73 million. Shares have fallen by 8.3% today, and are now close to their pandemic crash low, at 178p. The mid-tier housebuilder blamed the ‘poor trading environment’ and legacy costs at its Brightwells Yard development — with its sales rate per outlet per week falling to just 0.25 in the 7 weeks to August 18, down from 0.50 in the first half. And the FTSE 250 company does not expect any material improvement before the end of October. Further, while it’s negotiating bulk land deals to support future delivery volumes, management is actively reducing overheads and scaling back growth plans. For context, Rightmove data shows that UK asking prices fell by 1.9% month-on-month in the five weeks to 12 August. But with Help to Buy now over, mortgage rates peaking, and the likelihood of further stimulus slim, it might be the case that much of the headwinds is now priced in. It’s worth noting that average house prices are still circa 20% higher than pre-pandemic. Crest retains a strong financial position, plans to pay the dividend as usual, and boasts experienced leadership used to the cyclical nature of the housing market. 3. ABRDN ABRDN shares have fallen by 56% over the past five years, and 30% over the past month alone, with many analysts blaming a botched rebrand alongside nimbler competitors. In recent half-year results, the investment management company saw net outflows of £4.4 billion, with the investor reaction perhaps to be expected. However, the FTSE 250 company may now be appealing to value investors. There’s still £496 billion of assets under management (AUM0 to consider, alongside a dividend yield of 9%. If you compare the fundamentals to its competitors, ABRDN may be considered oversold — though it’s worth observing that the interim dividend of 7.3p is only just covered, at 1x adjusted capital generation. But on the bright side, adjusted operating profit rose by 10% to £127 million, while adjusted capital generation also increased by 33% to £142 million. IFRS losses before tax came in at £169 million, but much of this can be accounted for by a £181 million reduction in the value of shares in companies on its balance sheet — and these paper losses could well be recovered over the longer term. The key point is that the company is cyclical; with interest rates comparatively high, cash is currently attractive compared to ABRDN’s asset management returns. When — or if — rates start to fall, a strong recovery could be in the works. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Preserving some defensive stocks in the share portfolio will help hedge against potential risk and install a safety net in the event of a downturn in the financial markets. Source: Bloomberg Shares Telstra AGL Energy Wesfarmers Recession Market sentiment Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne The global economy is notably suffering after experiencing two very profitable years during the Covid-19 pandemic. Even though we understand that financial markets remain resilient in the face of tough times, there are several reasons why investors should consider bolstering their portfolio with defensive stocks while preparing for the next recession. Leaving some defensive stocks in the share portfolio will help to hedge against potential risk and will install a safety net in the event of a downturn in financial markets. A small proportion of your investments should be deployed there when you have a bullish stance on the future of equities, with more funds being allocated when bearish sentiment emerges.   In addition, defensive stocks can inject some stability to your share portfolio when financial markets are volatile or when the economy is heading for a downturn. Like safe havens, investors tend to start piling defensive stocks when bearish sentiment emerges which can help identify when the market experiences a change in mood. This applies the other way too, with an unravelling of defensive stocks suggesting investors are selling up as they have a greater appetite for riskier investment opportunities.   Today, I would like to introduce five ASX-listed defensive stocks for your reference. Bega Cheese – food and drink producer Wesfarmers – consumer staple Telstra – telecoms AGL – energy CSL – pharmaceuticals 1. Bega Cheese – food producer Food or drink manufacturers and sellers are regarded as defensive businesses as people always need to eat and drink regardless of economic performance. They often outperform the wider market during the downturn and can span a variety of sectors including those that produce the food, those that sell it, agriculture, ingredient suppliers, and so on.   Bega Cheese is one of the largest companies in Australia’s dairy sector and the household name behind Australia’s iconic Vegemite. For the first half of the 2022 financial year, Bega Cheese reported its revenue to be up 113% to $1.5 billion against the prior corresponding period with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) up 48% to $97.2 million. Key metric Source: Bega 2. Wesfarmers – consumer staple General retailers that sell everyday products like Wesfarmers, Woolworth and Coles carry defensive qualities with low beta scores and reliable dividends. The Wesfarmers group owns one of the highest quality retail portfolios in Australia with strong in-demand brands including Bunnings, Kmart, and Officeworks. While the company is facing the headwinds from the soaring inflation and cost pressure, from a long-term perspective, the services, and products it provides remain firmly on top of the priority list for every single Australian family during the downtimes. Key metric Source: Wesfarmers 3. AGL – energy While many stocks' defensive characteristics spawn from their international reach and diversification, others get theirs through owning monopolies in crucial areas. Utilities providing electricity and water are heavily regulated businesses with limited competition in their markets.   AGL Energy Limited is Australia's leading integrated energy company and the largest ASX-listed owner, operator, and developer of renewable energy. The AGL share price has outperformed the ASX 200 through 2022 so far and although the recent financial shows negative earnings per share, the company expects the EPS to return to positive in 2023 and move up steadily afterwards. Source: AGL 4. Telstra – telecommunication Telecom companies and infrastructure managers secure income by providing necessary services on a contract basis. Phones, broadband and television are all seen as the basics for any household in a developed economy and signing people up on contracts means their revenue is more predictable. Telstra is Australia’s largest telecom provider, which builds and operates telecommunications networks and markets voice, mobile, internet access, pay television, and other products and services. It is a member of the S&P/ASX with the largest market capitalization in the telecommunications sector. Telstra’s diversified and entrenched customer base provides the group with a stable revenue stream making it one of the market’s favourite yield stocks for decades. Key metric Source: Telstra 5. CSL Pharmaceutical companies are responsible for producing vital medicines and treatments and are often treated as a priority by governments and consumers. Due to this, their spending is not hastily cut down in the event of a downturn and the CSL is the third-largest company on the ASX with a market capitalisation of approximately $126.17 billion. CSL is the third-largest company on the ASX, with a market capitalization of approximately $126.17 billion. The multinational specialty biotechnology company is also a market leader in the research, development and manufacturing of products that treat and prevent critical human medical conditions. The company is growing at a strong and steady pace and it has managed to grow its revenue at a rate between 7 to 15% during the past five years. Key metric Source: CSL This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Brent crude oil slips on demand concerns while gold, silver prices rise Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver as the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate ahead of Thursday’s Jackson Hole symposium. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 August 2023 Brent crude oil price slides on demand concerns The price of Brent crude oil is slipping once more as Chinese policy measures to boost economic growth disappoint. The early August and last week’s lows at $82.81 to $82.31 are thus back in focus. If fallen through, the mid-July high at $81.56 ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $80.98 could be back in the frame. Minor resistance above Monday’s low at $84.04 can be seen at this week’s high at $85.54. While it isn’t bettered, short-term downward pressure looks to be dominant. While the $82.81 to $82.31 support area holds, the medium-term uptrend in Brent crude oil remains intact, though. Source:ProRealTime Gold on track for third day of gains The one-month decline in the price of gold to this week’s $1,885 per troy ounce low has been followed by a minor recovery rally towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,909. While the precious metal price remains below it on a daily chart closing basis, overall downside pressure should retain the upper hand, though. Minor support below Friday’s high at $1,897 can be spotted at the $1,893 late June low and at this week’s $1,885 trough. Currently unexpected failure at $1,885 would lead to the mid-March price gap between $1,872 to $1,870 being eyed. Source:ProRealTime Silver rally pushes towards the $24.00 mark Silver’s rally off its seven-week low at $22.23, made marginally above its $22.12 June low, has been followed by a near 6% rally in the past week. The precious metal is fast approaching its late July low at $24.05. Slightly above it lies the 24 July low at $24.27, a rise above which would target the June peak at $24.52. Minor support below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.56 comes in along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.32. While above it, immediate upside pressure should be maintained. Source:ProRealTime