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Crude oil prices on course for worst week since mid-March; retail traders recently turned net-long WTI, a bearish sign and prices broke under key moving averages, where too? Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities Market sentiment Petroleum WTI Oil Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Thursday 05 October 2023 05:48 Crude oil prices are on course to sink nearly 7% this week so far. If confirmed, this could end up being the worst five-day period for WTI since the middle of March. Retail traders are now increasingly boosting upside exposure. This can be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which could have a key influence on where the commodity goes from here. Crude oil sentiment outlook - bearish According to IGCS, about 57% of retail traders are net-long crude oil. Since most of them remain net-long, this hints that prices may continue falling down the road. This is as upside bets increased by 33.08% and 67.76% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall exposure and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias. IG crude oil sentiment chart Source: DailyFX Crude oil technical analysis On the daily chart below, WTI has confirmed a breakout under the 20-day moving average and recently closed under the 50-day moving average. However, confirmation of a breakout under the latter has yet to be achieved. That said, recent losses followed negative RSI divergence, which showed that upside momentum was fading. From here, recent losses have exposed the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level of 81.88, which is immediate support. Further losses beyond that place the focus on the August low of 77.63. Otherwise, in the event of a turn higher, keep a close eye on the 84.84 inflection point from the August peak. Crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Your ASX 200 afternoon report. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares ASX Lithium S&P/ASX 200 United States Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 05 October 2023 07:23 The ASX 200 trades 37 points (0.43%) higher at 6928 at 2.20 pm AEDT. ASX 200 sees positive turn amid Wall Street relief rally The ASX 200 is on track for its first positive session this week and in October, following a relief rally on Wall Street as US yields eased following the release of cooler-than-expected US economic data. Much has been written about the unrelenting rise in long-term US interest rates, threatening prospects of a soft landing and raising doubts around equity market valuations. A move was stopped in its tracks overnight following the release of considerably weaker ADP employment data, and the ISM Services PMI, topped off by a 5.6% fall in the price of crude oil to below $85.00 per barrel. Tech stocks continue to shine Of course, the current sense of calm can quickly be undone by the release of a hotter-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report in the US on Friday. However, in the meantime, there was no stopping tech stock pack leaders like Tesla, Google, and Amazon from enjoying a moment in the sun. The ASX 200 market movements today Property sector Turning to the local market, the much-maligned ASX 200 property sector which was down over 11% in the past five weeks, performed well today. Vicinity Centres gained 3.29% to $1.73 Goodman Group added 2.5% to $21.74 GPT added 2.14% to $3.82 Dexus gained 2.1% to $3.82 IT sector A similar story unfolded for the interest rate-sensitive ASX 200 tech sector as it embarked on a journey to regain lost ground. Appen gained 2% to $1.14 NextDC added 2% to $12.32 Tyro Payments added 1.71% to $1.33 Seek gained 1.7% to $21.73 Banking sector The big banks were eager to stamp approval on the pullback in yields. Westpac gained 1.3% to $21.00 Macquarie added 1.1% to $165.20 ANZ gained 0.76% to $25.11 CBA gained 0.7% to $98.78 Mining sector The major iron ore miners are still constrained by concerns about the Chinese economy. As the market prepares for China's upcoming CPI report, which is anticipated to reveal persistently subdued inflation in the world's second-largest economy, apprehensions persist. Mineral Resources fell 2.34% to $61.85 Rio Tinto fell 1.17% to $112.29 BHP fell 0.57% to $43.47 Fortescue fell 0.29% to $20.72 Lithium sector Lithium stocks have been impacted today due to a downgrade from a US broker, who expressed concerns about declining lithium prices. Galan Lithium, dived 4.1% to $0.59c Core Lithium fell 4.43% to $0.38c Vulcan Energy fell 3.87% to $2.73 IGO fell 3.24% to $11.66. ASX 200 technical analysis Last week, we turned tactically bullish on the ASX 200 (just above 7000), anticipating a rebound toward the range highs (7440) and possibly the year-to-date highs (7567). Stop levels for the bullish view are a sustained close below 6900/70. We are aware that if the ASX 200 sees a sustained close below 6900/70, the risks include a test of 6750 before reaching the 2022 lows at 6400. ASX 200 daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of October 05, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Canadian dollar heading for worst two-weeks since mid-February; meanwhile, retail traders continue to increase downside exposure and USD/CAD achieves key bullish breakout, but momentum fading. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares USD/CAD Canadian dollar United States dollar Market sentiment Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Thursday 05 October 2023 07:26 The Canadian dollar is heading towards its worst two-week period against the US dollar since the middle of February with USD/CAD up about 1.8% so far. Retail traders have been responding by increasing downside exposure, which can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS). The latter often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will USD/CAD continue higher from here? USD/CAD sentiment outlook - bullish The IGCS gauge shows that only about 27% of retail traders are net-long USD/CAD. Since most of them are biased to the downside, this suggests that prices may continue falling down the road. This is as downside exposure increased by 1.77% and 29.04% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of recent changes and overall exposure offers a stronger bullish outlook. IG client sentiment chart USD/CAD Source: DailyFX Canadian dollar technical analysis On the daily chart below, USD/CAD has confirmed a breakout above the key 1.3668 inflection zone. The latter has its beginning from earlier this year, around April. Heading into Thursday’s European trading session, the exchange rate is aiming lower. Recent gains have been occurring alongside negative RSI divergence. This shows that upside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn lower. Still, in September, we saw the 50-day moving average hold as support, maintaining the broader upside focus. It may very well again in the event of a pronounced drawdown. That would place the focus on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3568. Otherwise, extending higher turns the focus on the March high of 1.3862. Canadian dollar daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Asian stocks track Wall Street higher as yields retreat and investors look ahead to key US employment data on Friday. After eleven consecutive weeks of gains the US Dollar Index is retreating from its ten-month high while the Japanese yen is regaining lost ground on possible intervention by the Bank of Japan. The central bank is keeping the markets guessing on whether it is intervening, though, but doesn't rule out any option versus excess moves. As today's economic calendar is light with only some trade balance and initial US jobless claims releases, speeches by MPC and ECB members, all eyes are riveted on Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls. These should give a better indication as to the probable direction of future US monetary policy.

Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 continue to free fall Outlook on Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 amid rising US yields, a strong greenback and tight US labour market. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 October 2023 11:19 Nikkei 225 drops to near five-month low Since last week the Nikkei 225 dropped by close to 5% as higher yields led to risk-off sentiment. The fall through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 30,690.2 amid potential currency intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is worrying for the bulls with the minor psychological 30,000 mark now in focus. Below it lies the 50% retracement of this year’s up to 32% uptrend at 29,730 which represents another possible downside target. Minor resistance above the 200-day SMA at 30,690.2 sits at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 30,710 and more significant resistance at the 31,251.2 August low. Source: ProRealTime FTSE 100 slips to one-month low The FTSE 100’s fall through the August-to-October uptrend line and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,528 after three straight days of declines has the late June low at 7,401 in its sights. Below it the early September low at 7,369 may also offer support. Minor resistance above the 55-day SMA can be spotted at Tuesday’s 7,546 high and at the breached two-month uptrend line, now because of inverse polarity a resistance line, at 7,565. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 probes major support zone The S&P 500 began the fourth quarter where it left of in the third, namely by declining further as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.85% and that of the 30-year bond hit the 5% mark, both at 2007 highs. Higher-than-expected job openings and the unprecedented removal of the Speaker of the House, which raises fears of paralysis in the US government, also pushed stocks lower. The 4,217 to 4,187 key support zone, which consists of the early and late May highs and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), is currently being tested and may hold. If not, the next lower late May low at 4,166 may also be reached. Initial resistance can be found at last week’s 4,238 low followed by Monday’s low at 4,260. Source: ProRealTime

WTI tops out while silver and Arabica coffee find interim support Outlook on WTI, silver and Arabica coffee as rapidly rising US yields lead to risk-off sentiment. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 October 2023 10:56 WTI slips to near one-month low WTI is in the process of keeling over from its $94.25 September peak ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting but needs to fall and close on a daily basis below its late September low at $87.85 for a top to be confirmed. Tuesday’s low at $87.02 is within sight and a fall through it may engage the August peak at $84.39. Minor resistance above the 21 September low at $88.28 comes in at Tuesday’s $89.27 high. While below it, further downside pressure is expected to lower the oil price. Source: ProRealTime Silver drops to near seven-month low Friday’s silver bearish reversal off 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMA) amid rapidly rising US yields took the precious metal down to $20.69 per troy ounce, to levels last traded in mid-March. As long as this week’s low at $20.69 underpins, a minor bounce towards the mid-March low at $21.46 may ensue. Further up lies key resistance between the June-to-September lows at $22.12 to $22.30. Failure at $20.69 would eye the $20.42 February low and also the psychological $20 mark as well as the March trough at $19.90. Source: ProRealTime Arabica Coffee finds interim support Front month Arabica Coffee futures hit a near nine-month low last week amid improved weather in top producer Brazil and dropped to 14,550 before stabilizing. Since Friday’s low at 14,550 has not been accompanied by a lower reading of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart, positive divergence can be made out. More often than not it leads to at least short-term consolidation in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, in case of Arabica coffee that is to say down. A rise above Monday’s high at 15,180 could thus put the July low, 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and late August high at 15,506 to 15,764 on the plate. Intraday support can be found between the mid-August to mid-September lows at 14,761 to 14,711. A fall through last week’s low at 14,550 would engage the January low at 14,288, though. Source: ProRealTime

As we witness this week's disappointing Q3 delivery figures pushing the stock prices even lower, the question arises: Is it time to stay cautiously around the EV titan, or buy the dip? Source: Bloomberg Shares Tesla, Inc. Price Vehicle Electric vehicle BYD Auto Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Wednesday 04 October 2023 06:53 Tesla's share prices have taken a steep dive by over 16% from their peak in July. As we witness this week's disappointing Q3 delivery figures pushing the stock price even lower, the question arises: Is it time for investors to stay cautiously around the EV titan, or could this tumultuous period present a dip-buying opportunity? Tesla’s challenges As a vital indicator for its to-be-reported earnings for the third quarter, Tesla's vehicle deliveries fell short of Wall Street predictions with a nearly 7% decline from the prior quarter, totaling 435,059 vehicles. Tesla attributed the lower production and delivery figures to scheduled downtime at its factories and stressed that: “our 2023 volume target of around 1.8 million vehicles remains unchanged.” Source: Tesla Still, the disappointment on the Q3 data, which came after a record second-quarter deliveries, causing its share prices to fall by 2% immediately. Why are investors so concerned about Tesla's sales and deliveries? Beyond the economic headwinds that no business can escape, Tesla faces its own set of hurdles. As the electric vehicle market expands, competition also grows fiercer. China's BYD is now on track to beat Tesla as the world's largest electric vehicle seller, thanks to its aggressive global sales expansion footprint and cheaper price tag. BYD reported sales of 431,603 fully-electric vehicles in the three months ending on September 30, indicating a 23% increase from the second quarter. During the same period, Tesla shipped 435,059 cars worldwide. Not only is Tesla's growth rate noticeably slowing, but what's even more noteworthy is that the gap between the two EV producers is now less than 4,000 vehicles, the closest ever. While Tesla's shortfall in Q3 deliveries may be seen as a short-term issue, given that its factories are currently occupied with the production of a refreshed Model 3 and the new Cybertruck, it raises a disquieting question: Is Tesla capable of defending its kingdom against a well-equipped competitor? Furthermore, will the intensifying competition erode Tesla's once-proud profit margins? Tesla technical analysis On the daily chart, the current prices are trading within the lower region of a symmetric triangle pattern, with the lower trendline having provided strong support over the past week. Notably, the price has made multiple attempts to breach the 50-day moving average (MA) without success, establishing the level of $250-$255 as immediate resistance. Conversely, a breakout below the 100-day MA would significantly increase the likelihood of a drop below $240 and potentially breach the months-long trendline dating back to May. Such a scenario is likely to trigger substantial selling pressure. From a sentiment perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to the neutral level, suggesting a cautious approach is warranted for both buyers and sellers for now. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Explore the key factors driving volatility, including a strong JOLTS report and hawkish Fed comments. Plus, get insights on the upcoming ISM Services PMI data and expert S&P 500 and Nasdaq technical analysis. Source: Bloomberg Indices Federal Reserve S&P 500 Nasdaq United States Federal Open Market Committee Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 04 October 2023 08:10 US equities in sharp decline US equities experienced a sharp decline overnight as yields surged, following a red-hot JOLTS opening report that reinforced the message from the recent FOMC meeting regarding the need for higher rates over a longer period. The JOLTS job openings for August surged to 9610k, a "mere" four standard deviations above the consensus median outcome of 8815k, with job openings returning to their highest level since May. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's favored metric of job openings per unemployed remained elevated at 1.52. Hawkish Fed and high stakes This week, hawkish Fed remarks, coupled with a stronger-than-expected ISM print and JOLTS job opening data, placed added significance on Friday night's Non-Farm Payroll report. However, before that, the market must assess the impact of the removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, which raises the odds of a government shutdown when temporary funding expires on 17th November, along with the release of the ISM services PMI this evening. We maintain the view that the interest rate market is too complacent about the possibility of one final rate hike before year-end, which is currently about 50% priced in (13 basis points) by year-end. What to expect from ISM services PMI Date: Thursday, October 5th at 1 am AEDT In August, the services PMI unexpectedly rose to 54.5 from 52.7 in July. It marked the fastest rate of growth in the services sector in six months, with robust increases in new orders (57.5 vs. 55), employment (54.7 vs. 50.7), and inventories (57.5 vs. 50.4). For the month of September, the market anticipates the services PMI to ease to 53.5 from 54.5. If the services PMI does not cool as expected, it will further contribute to the reasons behind this week's yield surge and potentially undermine risk sentiment. US ISM services PMI Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis Since early September, we have opined that the S&P 500 was missing another leg lower towards 4250/4000 as part of the correction that began in July. The tentative signs of support noted within that range last week have been negated after the S&P 500 rejected resistance from the August 4335 low and broke below uptrend support at 4,250 from the October 3491 low. If the S&P 500 now fails to hold above the 200-day moving average at 4,00 (on a closing basis), it negates the view that the pullback from the July high was corrective and warns of a potential impulsive Wave III decline towards 3900. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis Similar to the S&P 500 and in our previous reporting, we have suggested that the Nasdaq could experience another leg lower towards 14,200/14,000 as part of the correction that began in July. The Wave C pullback from the early September high of 15,618 (as part of a three-wave Elliott Wave ABC correction) has yet to reach the ideal pullback zone and seems to be missing a final leg lower (minor Wave V). If this pullback unfolds as expected, we anticipate a recovery that could push the Nasdaq to test and surpass the highs of July, possibly setting up a challenge to the 2021 bull market high of 16,764. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView - the figures stated are as of October 4th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Gold two-week drop at -5.3%, most since early July; retail traders keep increasing bullish exposure and this continues to support a bearish contrarian bias. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities Market trend Gold XAU/USD United States dollar Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Wednesday 04 October 2023 03:36 So far, over the past two weeks, gold prices have sunk about -5.3%. This is setting the stage for the worst 10-day period for XAU/USD since early July. In response, retail traders continue to increase their bullish exposure in the yellow metal. This can be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will gold continue lower? Gold sentiment outlook - bearish The IGCS gauge shows that about 75% of retail traders are net-long gold. Since most of them remain biased to the upside, this continues to hint that prices may fall down the road. This is as upside bets increased by 0.6% and 2.25% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall positioning and recent changes produces a stronger bearish outlook. IG client sentiment chart Source: DailyFX XAU/USD technical analysis On the daily chart, gold has confirmed a breakout under the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement level of 1848.37. This followed a push under near-term rising support from February and a bearish Death Cross between the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Now, immediate support appears to be the February low of 1804.78. Breaking lower exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1714.83 on the way towards the 1614 – 1628 support zone, which was established towards the end of last year. Meanwhile, if prices turn higher this places the focus back on 1848 before the 1884 inflection point comes into focus. XAU/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Australian dollar on course for worst week since mid-June; retail traders continue to build increasingly bullish exposure and AUD/USD breaks under key support, more pain to come? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Market sentiment Australian dollar United States dollar AUD/USD Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Wednesday 04 October 2023 07:46 The Australian dollar is on course to drop about -2.2% this week at this stage. If confirmed, that would be the worst five-day drop since the middle of June. Retail traders continue to become increasingly bullish and this can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, is the Aussie on course to extend its losing streak? AUD/USD sentiment outlook – bearish The IGCS gauge shows that about 85% of retail traders are net-long AUD/USD. Since the vast majority are biased to the upside, this continues to hint that prices may continue lower from here down the road. This is as upside bets increased by 14.21% and 5.76% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall positioning and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias. IG client sentiment chart Source: DailyFX Australian dollar technical analysis Focusing on the daily chart, AUD/USD has confirmed a breakout under the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6382. While there have been closes under this level before in recent weeks, this is the first meaningful consecutive daily drop under it. This has exposed the November 2022 low of 0.6272 as immediate support. Positive RSI divergence is present showing that downside momentum is fading. That can at times precede a turn higher. Such an outcome would place the focus on the 20- and 50-day moving averages as immediate resistance. These may maintain the broader bearish technical perspective, placing the focus on a potential revisit of the 2022 low of 0.6170. Australian dollar daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

While Asian indices moved lower after yet another gloomy session on Wall Street, the focus is on the yen after indications of an intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. The yen rallied off its lows against the dollar following a breach of the Y150 level, though officials declined to comment. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates unchanged at 5.5%, and avoided any hawkish surprises. In the US, the unprecedented removal of the Speaker of the House has raised fears of paralysis at the highest levels of government. A strong reading on US job openings yesterday saw stocks continue to fall, and attention now turns to the ADP report this afternoon.

As forecasts of a luxury consolidation grow ever louder, Xiaolin Chen, head of international at KraneShares, tells IGTV financial analyst @AngelineOng why higher-end names like Hermes, Gucci and Dior will still do well. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 14:04 (Video Transcript Summary) Chinese overseas spending set to rise Dr Xiaolin Chen from KraneShares speaks to IG financial analyst Angeline Ong about the current trends in China's consumption and luxury stocks. Dr Chen says that while many Chinese people are choosing to travel within China during the Golden Week holiday, overseas spending is expected to decrease. This could be because of personal preferences and travel restrictions. However, Dr Chen believes that Chinese people will continue to travel abroad for holidays in the future. When it comes to luxury stocks, Dr Chen explains that Chinese households have become wealthier, leading to more spending on luxury brands. Chinese consumers now prefer more expensive and exclusive luxury brands, and they are also buying from local Chinese brands. The price difference between luxury brands sold domestically and abroad has decreased, making shopping locally more appealing. K-Lux fund targets luxury brands Dr Chen says popular luxury brands like Hermes, Gucci, Dior and Chanel are loved by Chinese consumers. However, she noted that these brands may have had a temporary increase in revenue after reopening and might need to make some adjustments now. She also mentions that the growing middle class in China, comprising some 700 million people, is a significant consumer base for both high-end and more affordable luxury brands. To target this market, KraneShares has launched a fund called K-Lux. Using cleaner energy alongside fossil fuels In terms of the energy sector, Dr Chen talks about the global shift toward decarbonisation and the role of oil and fossil fuel companies. She acknowledged the challenges of balancing the transition to cleaner energy sources with the continued use of fossil fuels. Dr Chen highlights China's commitment to reducing carbon emissions and mentions that the country is investing heavily in green energy technologies. Dr Chen also discusses the inflow of investments into Chinese equities. Since Chinese A-shares were included in global indices in 2018, there has been a positive net inflow of investments each year. Despite some mixed economic data and outflows in 2023, institutional investors have shown confidence in the Chinese market by strategically positioning themselves for long-term allocations. Dr Chen believes that with supportive policies and positive data releases, investor sentiment toward Chinese equities will improve in the coming months. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

After a tough year for the UK consumer, signs of weakening inflation and better wage growth offer hope for improved performance. Source: Bloomberg Shares Tesco Price Inflation Retail Moving average Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 13:19 Tesco hopes for better trading as inflation eases At Tesco’s first quarter (Q1) update in June, the management team's predictions for fiscal year 2024 were unchanged. They predicted a retail operating profit of £2.6 billion, a retail cash flow of £1.4 billion to £1.8 billion, and a profit from Tesco Bank between £130 million and £160 million. This isn't surprising, considering the rising cost of living and lower increases in food prices can affect the company's earnings. As a result, Tesco's stock has gone down from its high point in May of 285 pence. However there are some positive trends starting to appear. For example, the increase in food prices has noticeably slowed down. Even though this can limit Tesco's revenue growth, it could be advantageous due to a more important development - the growth of real wages among Tesco customers. Now that wages are increasing faster than inflation, people are finding themselves with more disposable income. This will help trading, as customers are able to move back towards more expensive products and away from the value ranges. In addition, they may look to increase spending on non-essential items. According to the latest grocery reports from Kantar, Tesco has shown more sales growth than its traditional competitors. The company's sales grew by 9.5% and 9.1% in August and September respectively. Meanwhile, cheaper retailers Aldi and Lidl have seen their sales growth slow down (although still higher than Tesco), with a decline to 16.6% in September from 20.5% in August. How to trade Tesco’s first half results Tesco, the United Kingdom-based multinational groceries and general merchandise retailer, is set to release its first half (H1) 2023 results on 4 October 2023. Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Tesco – 3 strong buy, 7 buy and 4 hold - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 310.00 pence for the share, roughly 19% higher than the current price (as of 3 October 2023). Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 95% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 3 October 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 5% of clients expect the price to fall whereas trading activity over this week and month shows 61% of buys. Note that the week and month have only just begun, though, and that therefore this data needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Tesco technical outlook The Tesco share price has greatly outperformed the FTSE 100 by rising around 14% year-to-date. For further upside to be on the cards the September peak at 274.8p will need to be exceeded, something which might prove to be difficult following last week’s sell-off. Tesco Weekly Chart Source: TradingView From a medium-term perspective, as long as the Tesco share price stays above its February-to-August lows and the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at 246.4p to 240.40p on a weekly chart closing basis, the 2022-to-2023 uptrend remains intact. Tesco Daily Chart Source: TradingView The 4% drop in the Tesco share price from its 274.8p September high has taken it to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 259.5p, close to the 200-day SMA at 256.3p which may also offer support. While the next lower September low at 254.1p holds, the recent Tesco share price decline can be viewed as nothing more than a correction of the August-to-September advance. Were the 254.1p low to be slipped through, though, the technical picture would become more bearish and put the key support zone between 246.4p and 240.40p on the map. For the bulls to become more optimistic a rise and daily chart close above Monday’s high at 267.8p would need to unfold. Only then could the September peak at 274.8p be back in focus. If overcome, the 2022-to-2023 downtrend line at 279p would be back in sight. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The global stock market has finally closed the book on what has been the most challenging month of the year. What are the key factors to watch for into the final quarter of the year? Source: Bloomberg Indices S&P 500 Stock market Federal Open Market Committee Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 07:55 The global stock market has finally closed the book on what has been the most challenging month of the year. Both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by nearly 5% in September, while the Dow Jones declined by 3.2% for the month. The big question on everyone's mind is whether this downtrend can be reversed in the months ahead. What are the key factors to watch for into the final quarter of the year? S&P500 October key watch Wall Street kicked off the first trading day of October and the last quarter of the year on a cautiously positive note. The S&P 500 finished marginally higher, and the Nasdaq gained nearly 0.7%. The day was marked by a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI, signaling the beginning of the fourth quarter with hints of a potential easing in the contraction of the US manufacturing sector and associated price pressures. Notably, the prevailing sentiment stemming from the Federal Reserve's September meeting, which suggested that interest rates would remain elevated for an extended period, continues to serve as the backdrop for the equity market's risk landscape. Consequently, even though there is no Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October, discussions surrounding the price pressure are expected to remain a focal point for the month ahead. Furthermore, from the second week of October, the Q3 US earnings season will provide more insights into corporate revenues and profits. Currently, it appears that the third-quarter earnings season may witness another decline in earnings, further squeezing corporate margins. According to Factset, by the end of September, 64% of companies providing earnings per share (EPS) guidance are projecting negative EPS. This percentage is above the 5-year average of 59%. However, it's worth noting that in the past two earnings seasons, despite the overall results being less impressive, a significant number of companies still exceeded expectations and outperformed the consensus forecasts. For instance, during the April to June quarter, 79% of reporting companies surpassed their forecasts, above the five-year average of 75%. S&P500 in Q4 In fact, despite the sharp decline from August to September, the S&P 500 remains 10% above its opening position in 2023. Historically, the chances of the fourth quarter preserving yearly gains after a mid-year correction are not uncommon. According to the chart below, in the past 12 instances when the S&P 500 followed a similar pattern to that of 2023, the fourth quarter enjoyed a minimum 2.14% and an average 8.39% quarterly return. Source: S&P500 S&P500 technical analysis The daily chart of the US 500 has depicted a clear downward trajectory from the year's peak above 4500. Last week's retreat has brought the S&P 500 to a vital support area, which includes the 200-day moving average, the year-long trend line from October 2022, and the peak from August 2022, situated between 4258-4287. Based on the price action in the past five sessions, it appears that the significance of this level has notably eased the selling pressure and successfully pushed the RSI out of oversold territory for the time being. On the other hand, a significant resistance zone lies between the August low and the 20-day SMA at 4340 to 4376. Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

As the Nasdaq's giants sway, so do Australian tech stocks. Dive into the interplay of Nasdaq trends, rising bond yields, and the Australian tech sector's trajectory. Explore the key players and their potential in this landscape. IG Analyst | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 03:10 Article written by Danielle Ecuyer The global technology landscape is closely intertwined, with movements in major indices like the Nasdaq 100 having a ripple effect on technology stocks around the world. In this week's Investor Spotlight, we explore how the Nasdaq's trajectory and bond yields impact Australian technology stocks. Tech titans and their influence on Nasdaq The Nasdaq 100 index is dominated by a few mega-large companies which represent 43% of the index. At recent share price highs, they stood at a 50% weighting. Any movement in the tech behemoths - Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla, and Alphabet, by market cap order, has a direct impact on the index. These companies capture international demand as well as major secular trends, such as generative artificial intelligence. Immense cash flow generation, strong balance sheets, even more so in this cycle, due to the refinancing of debt during the pandemic when financing costs were extraordinarily low, make big tech more defensive. Microsoft currently generates double the amount of income on its cash than it pays in interest servicing costs. The valuations vary depending on the growth profile of the tech giants. Meta and Google are considered as mature and cyclical due to their advertising spend exposure and trade on lower valuations than Apple, which is growing recurring revenues via its service operations; Nvidia is high growth due to the AI, GPU (graphic processing unit) demand. Source: Bloomberg Nasdaq beyond tech None of the magnificent seven could prove to be recession resilient, but investing is as much about the absolute as it is the relative performance. Although Nasdaq is perceived as a technology index, the Nasdaq 100 includes the top 100 largest companies by market capitalisation, excluding financials. Higher bond yields depress the valuations of equities, and more so technology companies as they are perceived as higher growth, with longer-dated assets - meaning more growth in the future. The bottom line is Australian technology shares will, to a large degree, track the trends when it comes to rising bond yields (depressing valuations) and the Nasdaq performance. September snapshot For the month of September, the Australian Information Technology index declined -8.1%, and the Nasdaq composite fell -5.81%. Without splitting hairs, much of the divergence comes down to the composition of the indices and the performance of specific stocks. The Australian Information Technology index includes Wisetech Global, Xero, Next DC, Technology One, Megaport, Life360, and Dicker Data, according to market capitalisation. These are just the largest companies, not a complete list. Australia’s technology companies are not directly comparable to the US technology companies, but similarities exist in terms of theme exposures such as software services, data centres - secular themes (cloud services and AI). What is probably of more significance is the steep selloff in US Treasuries and the rise in bond yields as a driver of the recent weakness in share prices. Three stocks to watch WiseTech Global: Rome wasn’t built in a day Wisetech Global is a $22 billion company which offers global software services to the logistics industry. WiseTech Global weekly chart Source: IG FY23 results: Surpassing expectations but a cautionary note for FY24 In its recent FY23 results, WiseTech's results beat expectations; however, the company lowered expectations for FY24 due to the integration of lower-margin acquisitions. Founder and CEO Richard White noted that in building out the land-based logistics services, any concerns over short-term margin compression fail to acknowledge the medium integration and full integration benefits over the longer term. According to FNArena, the average share price target is $79.53, with Morningstar having the highest target at $95 per share. FNArena forecast chart Source: FNArena Refinitiv has a mean target price of $76.24, with 1 Strong Buy, 6 Buys, 7 Holds, and 1 Sell rating. Refinitiv forecast chart Source: Refinitiv Megaport: Riding the cloud wave Megaport is a $1.9 billion cloud connectivity specialist currently undergoing a revaluation. The company is benefiting from cost reductions in FY23 and is expanding its headcount in FY24 to accelerate the development of its customer network. Megaport weekly chart Source: IG The future of cloud and NaaS Goldman Sachs notes that the company "will benefit from strong structural tailwinds from the adoption of public cloud, including multi-cloud usage, and the transition towards NaaS technologies." Citi believes there is potential upside risk to FY24 earnings as operations benefit from the growing adoption of cloud services and network-as-a-service. FNArena has an average price target of $14.12, with Macquarie at $18. FNArena forecast chart Source: FNArena Refinitiv has a mean price target of $13.26 with 3 Strong Buys, 5 Buys, 4 Sells and 1 Strong sell. Refinitiv forecast chart Source: Refinitiv Xero to hero: Will the story continue? Xero is a $17 billion software services specialist for the accounting industry, focusing on improving profitability through cost reductions and price increases, particularly in the UK market where the company's penetration rate is underdeveloped. Xero weekly chart Source: IG Xero's 1H24 results Xero reports 1H24 results on November 2, and analysts will be seeking more clarity on earnings growth and resilience, margins, and the balance between subscriber growth versus price rises. The FNArena average target price is $117.56, and Goldman Sachs is one of the most bullish with a target price of $147, and the stock is on their conviction Buy list. FNArena forecast chart Source: FNArena Refinitiv has a mean price target of $118.24 with 2 Strong Buys, 10 Buys, 3 Holds and 2 Sells. Refinitiv forecast chart Source: Refinitiv This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

While recession fears largely evaporated in 2022 and 2023, IG market analyst Pablo Gil tells IGTV’s @AngelineOng why 2024 will be a year of reckoning for investors, and how to position for this. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 11:07 (Video summary) The global market forecast: recession looms, dollar soars IG analyst Pablo Gil and IGTV presenter, Angeline Ong, dive into the current global market situation, touching on sticky inflation, strikes happening worldwide, and the struggle of central banks to control inflation. Pablo believes that the impact of the fight against inflation won't show until 2024, and a recession could become a real concern within the next six to eight months. To explain why, he points out consumer-related indicators that reveal a weakening consumer due to the cost of living crisis and inflation crunch. For example, things like consumption and credit defaults are showing signs of decline. Market predictions for 2024: sell-offs and weakening demand Looking ahead to 2024, Pablo predicts certain market effects, such as sell-offs in the equity market, a stronger dollar, and reduced commodity prices. These predictions stem from the expectation that consumption and global demand will decrease. However, he cautions that once the recession hits, inflation won't be the main concern anymore. Instead, the lack of growth and its impact on the labour market will become a pressing issue. To add to the complexity of the market landscape, Pablo and Angeline touch upon geopolitical tensions between the US and China, as well as tensions between the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and G7 countries. They highlight that globalisation dynamics are changing, with different perspectives emerging from countries like China, Russia, and Middle Eastern nations. Geopolitical risks are on the rise and are unlikely to be resolved in the near future. Overall, this video provides valuable insights for those looking to understand the current global market situation in a more accessible and engaging manner. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Signs of strength in Nasdaq 100 but Dow and DAX struggle to make progress Indices suffered further losses on Monday but have recovered slightly today, with the Nasdaq 100 showing the way. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 11:58 Dow struggles after tough Monday Losses continued here despite the resolution of the US government’s funding problems. The index touched a four-month low in Monday’s session, and has shown no sign yet of forming a low. Friday’s rejection of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) provided a fresh bearish catalyst, and for now further declines seem likely. A drop below 33,230 would mark a new bearish move and open the way to the 32,700 level that was last tested in May. A rebound above the 200-day SMA might help to suggest that a low has formed for the time being. Source:ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 pushes higher The buyers emerged in this index over the previous three four sessions, with bargain-hunting helping it to outperform other major US indices on Monday. This may be a sign of risk appetite re-emerging; a close above the 100-day SMA would help to solidify this view, but in the short-term a rally all the way back above 15,400 is needed to break trendline resistance from the July highs. A reversal back below 14,700 might suggest the sellers will attempt another move to push the price below last week’s lows, when the 14,550 level was staunchly defended. Source:ProRealTime DAX fights to hold near support The rebound of Thursday and Friday fizzled out on Monday, with the index returning to the 15,200 support zone. It now finds itself balanced right on support, with the March lows around 14,700/14,800 next in view in the event of further losses. Having fallen below support around 15,700 and then 15,500, the sellers remain firmly in control of the index. In the short-term, a close above 15,650 would be needed to pierce trendline resistance from the July record high. Source:ProRealTime

Brent crude oil tops out, gold sees sixth straight day drop while natural gas looks capped Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and natural gas as the US dollar continues to appreciate. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 11:29 Brent crude oil forms top Monday’s daily chart close by the Brent crude oil price below last week’s $90.49 low confirms a top formation as the rising US dollar led to a reduction in oil long positions. The June-to-October uptrend line at $88.36 per barrel together with the August high at $87.83 are thus in focus but may offer interim support. Further down meanders the 55-day simple moving average at $87.28. Minor resistance above last week’s low at $90.49 can be spotted at the 21 September $91.37 trough. Source: ProRealTime Gold price has seen six straight days of falls Gold’s swift descent from last week’s $1,947 per troy ounce high due to a rising US dollar and yields has taken it to a seven-month low at $1,816. Slightly below this level the February and March lows can be made out at $1,810 to $1,805 and may offer interim support. There is now no resistance to speak of until the 6 March high at $1,858 and Friday’s $1,880 high. Source: ProRealTime Natural gas prices once again come off the $3 region Last week US natural gas futures revisited their $3.021 September high on supply tightness and briefly overcame it but still ended the day below it. Over the past few days further attempts to break through this resistance area failed with front month natural gas futures instead slipping back towards the August-to-October uptrend line at $2.848. While the next lower $2.791 September low underpins, the medium-term uptrend will stay intact, though. A currently not expected rise above the $3.021 to $3.024 region would engage the August peak at $3.050. Source: ProRealTime

Crude oil prices fell the most over two days since early June; retail traders are increasingly building upside exposure and this is an early warning sign that WTI may continue lower. Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities Petroleum WTI Oil Price of oil Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 06:21 Over the past two days, crude oil prices have fallen more than -3.4%. This marked the worst two-day performance since early June. In response, retail traders have begun increasing upside exposure. This can be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often works as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, could further pain be in store for oil next? Crude oil sentiment outlook – bearish According to IGCS, only about 45% of retail traders are net-long crude oil. Since most are still biased to the downside, this continues to suggest price may rise down the road. That said, upside exposure has increased by 8.8% and 11.11% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, recent changes in bets warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower. IG client sentiment chart Source: DailyFX Crude oil technical analysis On the daily chart below, we can see that WTI has effectively rejected November highs, which make for a zone of resistance between 92.43 – 93.72. This also followed negative RSI divergence, which showed that upside momentum was fading. Since then, prices have extended lower, recently taking out the 20-day moving average. Oil is also testing a push under the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level at 88.75. Confirming a breakout lower may open the door to an increasingly downward technical bias. Such an outcome places the focus on the 50-day moving average, and the 84.84 inflection point from August. These may hold as support. Crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

AUD held early losses after the RBA kept interest rates on hold; AUD/USD looks vulnerable as it tests vital support; AUD/NZD falls below key support and what is the outlook and the key levels to watch in AUD/USD and AUD/NZD? Source: Bloomberg Forex Australian dollar United States dollar Inflation AUD/USD Central bank Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 07:17 The Australian dollar held early losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept benchmark interest rates steady, in line with market expectations. RBA kept the benchmark rate steady at 4.1% for the fourth straight month but said some further tightening of monetary policy may be required as inflation remains still too high and the labour market remains strong. The central bank maintained its central forecast for inflation returning to the 2-3% target range by late 2025. Australia's CPI accelerated to 5.2% on-year in August, significantly above the central bank’s 2-3% target range. The recent sharp rise in oil prices poses upside risks to RBA’s inflation forecast and keeps alive the possibility of one more rate hike in this cycle. Markets are pricing in one more RBA rate hike early next year and broadly steady rates thereafter in 2024. Meanwhile, tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity in China are emerging - factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in September. This follows a spate of other indicators in August, including retail sales and easing deflationary pressures, that suggested economic growth could be bottoming in the world’s second-largest economy. Any improvement in China’s growth outlook could bode well for Australia. AUD/USD five-minute chart Source: TradingView Furthermore, the US Congress agreed on a last-minute deal to prevent a partial government shutdown briefly supporting the AUD. However, broader risk appetite has remained in check amid surging US yields driven by higher-for-longer US rates view. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reinforced the view on Monday saying she remains willing to support another increase in the central bank’s policy rate at a future meeting if incoming data shows progress on inflation has stalled or is too slow. AUD/USD: Testing key support On technical charts, AUD/USD has gone sideways over the past month, with stiff resistance at the late-August high of 0.6525 and quite strong support at the August low of 0.6350. For immediate downside risks to fade, AUD/USD needs to rise above 0.6525. Such a break could open the way toward the 200-day moving average (now at about 0.6675). On the downside, any break below 0.6350 could expose downside risks toward the October 2022 low of 0.6170. AUD/USD daily chart AUD/NZD: Attempting to break below key support After remaining sideways for two months, NZD/AUD is attempting to break below the lower end of the range at the July low of 1.0720. Such a move could clear the path initially toward the May low of 1.0550, not too far from the December low of 1.0470. AUD/NZD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

US employment data will keep the market on its toes throughout the week with JOLTs job openings data to be released to Tuesday afternoon. Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Monday 02 October 2023 10:38 The consensus is that employment openings are expected to remain broadly unchanged on last month, when they fell to their lowest since May 2021. On Wednesday, ADP employment change is expected to slow for a third straight month. The forecast is for 160,000 job creations in the private sector, after 177,000 in August. And on Friday, we'll get September non-farm payrolls. Job creations are forecast to slow down. Early expectations are for 163,000 jobs to be added to the US economy. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has this overview. The JOLTS job opening This week, there are some important facts that will affect the market. One thing to pay attention to is the US employment data. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings are expected to stay stable compared to last month. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment change, which comes out on Wednesday, is expected to show a slowdown for the third month in a row, with a prediction of 160,000 new jobs in the private sector. And on Friday, the September non-farm payrolls report will be released, with a forecast of a slowdown in job creation, with around 163,000 new jobs added to the US economy. The US job market In simpler terms, this means that economists think the US job market is doing well and the efforts made by the US Federal Reserve to control the economy are working. It's kind of like a reward for their hard work. The US dollar Another thing to watch out for is how the USD is doing in comparison to other currencies. Even though it had a strong quarter, the dollar is currently a bit weaker. It might have some challenges this week because there will be a lot of information coming out. However, the dollar's performance is expected to be influenced by the expectation that interest rates in the US will go up soon. To sum it all up, the market is going to be paying close attention to the US employment data, as well as how it affects the job market and the US dollar. This data will give us a better idea of how the economy is doing and what we can expect for the future. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Some central banks are due to decide on rates this week, starting on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Monday 02 October 2023 10:10 The market sees no change and expects the cash rate to remain at 4.1%. However, a recent uptick in inflation has economists thinking that another rate hike could happen before the end of the year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will also have an update on Wednesday on its monetary policy path and is also expected to stay put at 5.5%. Inflation is still decelerating in the country, and the official position is that rate increases have yet to be transmitted to the broader New Zealand economy. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has this round-up. The Reserve Bank of Australia This week, there are a few important meetings happening in the central banking world. One of the first meetings is being held by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). People are predicting that the RBA will keep interest rates the same at 4.1%. However, there is some talk that rates could go up later in the year if there is an increase in inflation. But, this inflation was mainly caused by higher oil prices, so the RBA might not think it's a big deal unless oil prices keep going up and make things more expensive in Australia. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand There's another bank meeting happening in New Zealand, by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. It's expected that they will keep their rates at 5.5%. Inflation is going down in New Zealand, and the rate increases haven't had a big impact on the overall economy yet. The Australian dollar is trading lower against the USD right now, but it got a little boost from some good news about manufacturing in China. On the other hand, the US dollar is doing well because of decent economic data and good interest rates on US Treasury bonds. The future of the Australian dollar will be affected by how careful the US Federal Reserve is with their interest rate decisions. The New Zealand dollar The NZD is also a bit lower against the US dollar, but it did recently go up to a seven-week high. Traders are now waiting for data about manufacturing in the US and for the rate decisions from both the RBA and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. All of this could make the market a bit more unpredictable, which means there might be some big changes in prices. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Gold and silver prices slump to multi-month lows, while WTI crude price drops back from recent highs Precious metals have been hit hard by a surging dollar and rising bond yields, and oil prices have dropped back from the highs seen last week. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 02 October 2023 11:50 Gold closes on seven-month lows Gold’s collapse accelerated on Friday, taking the price to its lowest level since early March. The price has witnessed a remarkable slump since the middle of the month, having dropped below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), retreated from trendline resistance from the July highs and then breaking below support at $1885. Further declines target $1807, the lows of February and March. There is as yet little indication of any nascent rebound, though the $1885 level may now prove to be resistance. Source: ProRealTime WTI edges down again A further decline in oil on Friday has raised hopes that a short-term top may be in for the time being. A deeper pullback would need a close below $89, something that eluded the price last week. This would then open the way to a more substantial drop that could see the price head back towards the rising 50-day SMA. This would then create a higher low and help solidify the bullish outlook. If $89 continues to provide support then we could see a fresh attempt to push back to the highs of last week around $93. Source: ProRealTime Silver’s fall accelerates Silver’s decline has been impressive, wiping out all the gains made since early March. The price closed below the $22.40 support zone on Friday, breaking lower after finding support around here three times since June. The sellers remain firmly in control here, and a push towards $21 seems likely. It would need a close back above $22.50 to suggest a short-term bounce may be in the offing. Source: ProRealTime

Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 begin Q4 on a cautious note Outlook on Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 as the oil price, US yields and greenback remain at elevated levels. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 02 October 2023 11:37 Initial Nikkei 225 Monday rally fizzles out The Nikkei 225 began the day on a positive footing and rose to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 32,415.9 as Japan Q3 business sentiment climbed the highest in five quarters before sellers regained the upper hand and pushed the index back down towards its 31,665.4 September low. It and the 25 August low at 31,563.2 may be revisited while the 55-day SMA caps. Were this level to give way in October, the August low at 31,251.2 would be eyed. Immediate resistance sits around the 32,000 mark and further minor resistance at the 22 September low at 32,167.9, followed by the mid-September low and the 55-day SMA at 32,396.5 to 32,415.7. Source: ProRealTime FTSE 100 begins Q4 below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) The FTSE 100 tried to stay above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,650 on the last day of the third quarter but didn’t manage to do so and is beginning the last quarter of the year in a subdued mood. Resistance above the 200-day SMA can be spotted at Friday’s 7,675 high and the 7,688 June high. Further potential resistance comes in between the 7,723 July peak and the September high at 7,747. These highs will need to be exceeded for the psychological 7,800 mark and the 8 May high at 7,817 to be back in the frame. Minor support sits at last Wednesday’s low at 7,553. Only a fall through last week’s low at 7,523 would open the door to the psychological 7,500 region. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 mixed despite averted US government shutdown The S&P 500 begins the fourth quarter in a cautious mood despite US legislators agreeing to a temporary solution to keep the government open for 45 more days. A rise above not only Friday’s high at 4,332 needs to occur but also the late June to August lows at 4,328 to 4,337 for the 10 July low at 4,378 to be reached. Slips should find support around Friday’s low at 4,274 ahead of the September low at 4,239. Below it lies the major 4,214 to 4,187 support zone which consists of the early and late May highs and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Source: ProRealTime

Hi @Faurh We are currently working on upgrading ProRealtime to v12, which is still in the Beta phase. We will have to wait until all the tests are completed and any bugs are addressed before releasing it. Regrettably, we cannot provide an ETA at this point. However, we will keep all clients informed once the new version is ready to be added. We appreciate your patience and understanding in this matter. All the best - MongiIG