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Dow, Nasdaq 100 and CAC40 all come under selling pressure Indices have seen bullish momentum slip away, as concerns about renewed rate hikes hit risk appetite. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 07 September 2023 Dow gives back recent gains The index has fallen this week, dropping back below the 50-day SMA and heading towards the 100-day SMA. It remains above the August lows, but bulls will need a close back above 34,750 to suggest that a new leg higher has begun, which might then see the index target 35,000, followed up by the late July peak at 35,640. 34,000 marked the low of August, so a close below this level would add to the bearish short-term view and bring the 200-day SMA into play, followed up by the June and early July low around 33,630. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 comes under pressure The Nasdaq 100 saw some weakness on Wednesday, and this has continued into Thursday. In the event that these losses extend into a more sustained pullback, the price may retest the August low around 14,688, which would also see it test the 100-day SMA. Buyers will want to see a move back above 15,400, with a close back above 15,500 signalling fresh bullish momentum, with an initial target of the July highs around 15,900. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 back at 200-day moving average European indices have given back ground over the past week, with the CAC40 surrendering most of the gains made in the second half of August. The price finds itself testing the 200-day SMA once more, as it did a month ago. If it can repeat the August feat and stage a recovery, then the 7400 level becomes an initial target. Continued losses bring the price into the area around 7100, which has acted as support since late May. Source:ProRealTime

WTI stalls on demand concerns while gold and silver fall as greenback hits 6-month highs Outlook on WTI, gold and silver amid appreciating US dollar and slowing growth in China. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 07 September 2023 WTI stalls at ten-month high WTI’s over 10% rally on tighter supply and increased optimism surrounding China’s stimuli is stalling on fears that future energy demand could weaken amid China’s slowing economic growth. The country’s trade surplus narrowed in August as exports declined on softer external demand, while imports also fell amid weak domestic consumption. Further consolidation below this week’s high at $87.61 is thus at hand. Were this high to be exceeded, however, the 11 November 2022 high at $89.39 would be targeted ahead of the psychological $90 region. Minor support sits at the 1 September high at $85.70 and more important support at the $84.39 August peak. Source: ProRealTime Gold price drops on three consecutive days on rising US dollar Gold’s advance from its $1,885 per troy ounce August low has taken it to last week’s $1,953 high as the US dollar’s appreciation gave way to a corrective move lower. Now that the greenback resumed its ascendency and trades in six-month highs, the precious metal price is seen slipping again. Currently the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,919 is being revisited with the 25 August low at $1,904 representing a possible additional downside target. Resistance comes in along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,931 and also around the late July low at $1,943. Source: ProRealTime Silver on track for seventh consecutive day of decline Silver’s bearish reversal off its $25.01 August peak has swiftly taken it back down towards the mid-August high at $23.01. If fallen through, the late May low at $22.68 would be next in focus, followed by the key $22.23 to $22.12 support zone. It consists of the June and August lows. Resistance can now be found between the 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $23.47 to $23.64. Source: ProRealTime

September is traditionally the best-performing month of the year for the US dollar index, the DXY, which has recorded an average gain of 1.44% over the past ten years. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States United States dollar Currency U.S. Dollar Index Dollar Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 07 September 2023 USD index regains lost ground After its overnight rally, the DXY is already up 1.187% this September, having regained all the ground it lost into month end and more. The driver of US dollar gains this week has been more of the same: higher US yields and signs of a deepening slowdown in Europe and China, which sparked risk aversion, and weakness in the Japanese yen. Starting with the former: US yields climbed overnight, following a hotter-than-expected ISM services purchasing managers' index (PMI) that contained worrying signs of pricing and employment pressures. Defying market expectations for a fall to 52.4, the ISM services PMI rose to 54.5 in August from 52.7 in July, its highest reading since February. The prices paid sub-index increased to 58.9 from 56.8, and the employment component increased to 54.7 from 50.7. In response to the ISM beat and hawkish comments from European Central Banke (ECB) official Klass Knot, who warned about the possibility of a rate hike from the ECB next week, US two-year yields closed 6bp higher at 5.02%, up 25bp from Friday's low. The probability of a 25bp rate hike in November, which we have flagged in recent weeks as being underpriced, is back up to 44%. Turning to the slowdown in China and Europe, which continues to see their respective currencies marked lower against the greenback. Earlier this week, a larger-than-expected drop in the Caixin Services PMI for August (51.8 vs. 53.6 expected) saw USD/CNY trade above the 7.3200 level for the first time in 10 months. A similar story in Europe. The final reading of the Euro Area composite PMI was lower than expected (46.7 vs. 47 expected), sending the EUR/USD test support at 1.0700 for the first time in three months. Topping it all off for the US dollar index, USD/JPY rallied to a fresh cycle high of 147.87, its highest level in ten months, as yields on Japanese Government Bonds remain anchored around 0.65%, in contrast to the 4.29% on offer in US ten-year notes. DXY technical analysis During the first half of 2023, the US dollar index, the DXY, tested and held support at 101.00/80 on three separate occasions before punching lower post-Junes softer-than-expected US inflation data released in mid-July. As highlighted since late July here, the swift rebound back above 101.00/80 left the mid-July 99.57 low, exposed as a false break lower. For followers of the Elliott Wave, viewed as Wave V low, following the completion of a five-wave impulsive sequence from the 114.78 September high, as viewed on the chart below. The rally from the 99.57 low to last night’s 105.02 high now has the DXY pressing into overbought territory. Once the current period of DXY strength runs its course, a pullback towards 102.00 is likely into year-end. However, before that, we can’t rule out the US dollar index, the DXY extending gains towards the March 105.88 high. Keep in mind that the 50% retracement of the five-wave decline from the October 114.78 high to the July 99.57 low is 107.20ish. In summary, while the rally in the US dollar indexes overbought, we can’t rule out further US dollar strength in September before the big dollar commences a well-earned pullback. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Japanese yen weakens to its softest since November, while retail traders adopt a bearish stance to USD/JPY. Source: Bloomberg Japanese yen USD/JPY Forex Shares Market sentiment United States dollar Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Thursday 07 September 2023 Bullish USD/JPY sentiment outlook The JPY closed at its weakest against the US dollar since early November after the USD/JPY soared the most since late July. In response, retail traders have increased downside exposure in the exchange rate. This can be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will USD/JPY extend higher next? The IGCS gauge shows that only about 20% of retail traders are net-long USD/JPY. Since an overwhelming majority of them are biased to the downside, this is offering a bearish outlook for the broader horizon. Meanwhile, downside bets have increased by 3.72% and 7.4% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, overall positioning and recent changes produce a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias. IG client sentiment chart Source: DailyFX Japanese yen technical analysis Taking a look at the daily chart below, USD/JPY has closed above 146.56, a key resistance point established throughout August. The breakout opens the door to resuming what has been the broader uptrend since the beginning of this year. Immediate resistance from here is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level at 148.27. Pushing beyond that exposes last year’s peak of 151.94. Keep in mind that negative RSI divergence is brewing. While prices have set higher highs, the momentum indicator has not. This can at times precede a turn lower. Such an outcome places the focus on the 20-day moving average, which can function as support, maintaining the upside technical focus. Otherwise, further losses would place the focus on rising support from March. USD/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian dollar remains pressured after recent losses and AUD/USD closed at its lowest since early November, while AUD/JPY faces a symmetrical triangle. Source: Bloomberg Australian dollar AUD/USD AUD/JPY Forex Shares United States dollar Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Thursday 07 September 2023 AUD hits new low against the USD The Australian dollar closed at its weakest against the US dollar since early November, opening the door to extending the broader downtrend since the beginning of this year. This is being reinforced by a Bearish Death Cross between the 20- and 50-day moving averages (MAs) from August, with the former line recently holding as resistance. However, AUD/USD faces positive relative strength index (RSI) divergence. This is a sign of fading downside momentum, which can at times precede a turn higher. Still, in such an outcome, the MAs could hold as resistance, maintaining the downside technical bias. Otherwise, extending lower places the focus on the 3 November low of 0.6272 before the 2022 bottom of 0.6170 kicks in. AUD/USD monthly chart Source: TradingView AUD/JPY technical analysis Meanwhile, against the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar is facing a different technical situation. A symmetrical triangle chart formation has been brewing since earlier this year. Now, AUD/JPY is quickly running out of space to consolidate between rising support and falling resistance. The direction of the breakout could be key for preceding the broader trend. In the event of an upside breakout, key resistance is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 94.93. Extending gains could open the door to revisiting the June high of 97.67. Otherwise, key support is the 38.2% level of 93.23. Below the latter sits the midpoint at 91.86. A stronger bearish technical conviction could see the exchange rate drop towards the 61.8% level of 90.49. AUD/JPY monthly chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Investors have moved into risk-off mode as concerns loom regarding the next Fed move, as well as rising oil prices that could spark a revival of inflation. Yesterday it was ECB speakers that were talking up the chance of another hike, but today and tomorrow should see a rash of Fed members make appearances ahead of the blackout before their next policy decision. Central bankers have been keen to stress the potential for more hikes, even as markets have begun to discount the possibility of further hawkish policy. The steady rise in oil prices is a major risk to the cooling inflation narrative, after the commodity rose to a one-year high this week. On the calendar for today are weekly jobless claims, plus crude oil inventories, delayed by a day due to Monday's holiday.

The US dollar scaled new heights overnight with Treasury yields jumping, while the Japanese yen lost ground, but official chatter might start running interference. Source: Bloomberg Japanese yen United States dollar Forex Shares Bank of Japan Currency Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Wednesday 06 September 2023 USD/JPY at its highest level since November 2022 The US dollar roared across the board overnight with Treasury yields taking flight along the curve. USD/JPY ran to its highest level since November last year in the New York session, topping out at 148.80. It recoiled lower in early Wednesday trade after comments from Masato Kanda, Japan’s Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, Japan’s “chief of currency”. On speculative moves in foreign exchange, he said: “If these moves continue, the government will deal with them appropriately.” The framing of the language has been viewed by the market as softer than that used when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened in USD/JPY late last year. Most apparent is that the jawboning has begun and may seem likely to get stronger should USD/JPY approach last year’s peak of 151.95. JGB yield creeping higher In the meantime, the spread between Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) has been widening, but not to the same extent that occurred when USD/JPY hit its peak. While the 10-year Treasury note is close to where it was in November last year, the JGB yield has been allowed to creep higher. It is currently near 0.65%, above the 0.50% yield it had previously been anchored to by the BoJ’s yield curve control (YCC) programme. The change in YCC policy was not a directive to adjust the +/- 50 basis points band around zero percent for JGBs out to 10 years, but rather to allow flexibility in the implementation. Today’s comments from Kanda san might be reflective of an overall tilt in the way Japanese officials are seeking to avoid sudden and excessive volatility toward Yen depreciation. BoJ board member Hajime Takata also spoke on Wednesday but did little to move the dial in regards to monetary policy. Elsewhere, currencies exposed to global growth and risk sentiment saw the largest losses overnight with the Australian dollar leading the way lower in the aftermath of the RBA leaving rates on hold yesterday at 4.10%. Compounding the outlook for such currencies, the outlook for China continues to be mired in uncertainty around the prospects of the property sector there being able to make a recovery. The Caixin services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) missed forecasts yesterday, coming in at 51.8 for August, rather than the 53.5 anticipated and 54.1 previously. The composite PMI was 51.7 against 51.9 prior. USD/JPY and yield spread between 10-year Treasuries and JGBs Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian economy slowed in Q2, but less than expected, while the AUD/USD declined after the data release and is now testing key support. Source: Bloomberg AUD/USD Forex Australian dollar United States dollar Australia Economy of Australia Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 06 September 2023 RBA warns of tightening possibility this year The Australian dollar fell against the USD after the Australian economy slowed in the second quarter of the year, reinforcing the growing view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is done with hiking interest rates. The economy grew 2.1% on-year in the April-June quarter from 2.3% in the January-March quarter, compared with 1.8% expected, and 2.7% in the last quarter of 2022. GDP grew 0.4% on-quarter, in line with expectations, after net export volumes expanded more than twice analysts’ expectations as the government spent big on infrastructure during the quarter, offsetting the softness in household consumption. AUD/USD 5-minute chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis The data trajectory is likely to further strengthen the belief that the RBA will keep interest rates on hold for the rest of the year. At its meeting on Tuesday, the RBA kept interest rates on hold, saying recent data were consistent with inflation returning to the 2-3% target range by 2025, boosting hopes that the tightening cycle was over. However, the central bank reiterated that further tightening may still be required, though it would depend on the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Australia's consumer price index (CPI) eased more than expected in July, coinciding with the RBA’s view that the worst is probably over for inflation. Markets see a small probability of one last hike before the end of 2023. Much would depend on the outlook with regard to the Chinese economy, as the RBA noted on Tuesday while keeping the cash rate steady at 4.1%. Chinese policymakers have responded with a spate of support/stimulus measures in recent months, but those measures have yet to have a meaningful impact on sentiment. China is Australia’s largest export destination. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

It’s a FTSE 100 stock. Is this re-promotion to the UK’s premier index a short-lived adventure or could M&S continue to rise through the ranks? Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Marks & Spencer FTSE 100 Stock market index Stock Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 Marks & Spencer (LON: MKS) shares have risen by 77% year-to-date — and by 138% since early October 2022 — to 224p today. Having been re-promoted by FTSE Russell to the FTSE 100 last week, the retailer will likely be further boosted by the index inclusion, as fund managers and passive investors alike increase buying pressure. Of course, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. M&S shares were changing hands for 257p apiece in January 2022, and have experienced significant volatility over the past five years of trading. But where next? FTSE 100: Marks & Spencer shares In a trading update on 15 August, the company informed investors of its ‘strong trading and outlook for the year,’ and increased its profits guidance based on ‘good progress on the programme to reshape M&S.’ Importantly, the FTSE 100 retailer thinks that interim results on 8 November will ‘show a significant improvement against previous expectations.’ Over the 19 weeks to 12 August, food sales rose by 11% while clothing and homeware rose by over 6%. And the company is selling more items at full price, in stark contrast to competitors who are in the throes of price cuts. For context, annual revenues came in at £11.9 billion in May, a full £1 billion higher than in the prior full year. However, the FTSE 100 retailer noted that ‘there remain considerable uncertainties about the economic outlook, and there is a risk that the consumer market will tighten as the year progresses.’ Further, chief digital and technology officer Jeremy Pee is leaving to return to Canada. But while the macro outlook is uncertain, the British Retail Consortium saw annual shop price inflation fall to 6.9% in August, the lowest reading since October 2022. And together with KPMG, the organisations reported that sales of non-food items in the UK had their best month since February, as customers ‘splurged on self-care’ — with retail sales rising by 4.1% in August compared to August 2022. BRC CEO Helen Dickinson advises that ‘the sales figures reflected the improvement in consumer confidence in August, and retailers hope this general upwards trend will carry on.’ Flagship issues M&S launched legal action against the government this month over the decision to block the demolition of its flagship shop on Oxford Street. Operations Director Sacha Berendji argues that Secretary of State Michael Gove ‘wrongly interpreted and applied planning policy, to justify his rejection of our scheme on grounds of heritage and environmental concerns.’ It’s worth noting that M&S had previously seen two years approvals at every stage up to the final decision — with support from neighbouring businesses, inspectors, and relevant local authorities. Gove specifically disagreed with an expert’s view that demolition was the ‘only realistic option.’ CEO Stuart Machin has labelled the decision ‘utterly pathetic,’ labelling Gove as ‘anti-business’ and necessitating a review of its position at Marble Arch after a century of operating at the flagship. Given the plainly spelt-out problems with the current building, it’s perhaps unlikely that another operator is waiting in the wings. Where next for Marks & Spencer? Machin has implemented a clear turnaround plan — the company’s revenue, brand power and social media presence have all demonstrably improved. This month it added Estée Lauder Fragrance to its growing roster of third-party brands, and ambitions for further growth are evident. It was only in 2019 that the company dropped out of the FTSE 100, with profits collapsing and a share price near a record low, though at that point it had further to fall still. It’s telling that while the focus has been on a digital turnaround, the recent update noted ‘strong growth in stores, and more subdued growth in online’ in at least one sector. With Pee exiting, there may be an opportunity to further upgrade its web presence and fast-growing ‘Sparks’ loyalty scheme. While some operators may be struggling or indeed failing outright through this inflationary period, well-run FTSE 100 retail companies across the value chain are outperforming: M&S, Next, Card Factory, Sainsbury’s, B&M European Value Retail et al are all performing admirably in 2023 despite vastly different target consumers. But having won a hard-fought promotion, M&S is now operating a different competitive field — one where a half-dozen top-performing FTSE 250 companies will be perennially vying to take the company’s newly granted spot on the FTSE 100 roster. But Machin seems up for the challenge. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The Nikkei continues to make headway, but other Asian indices struggled overnight following a weaker end to the US session. The dollar and US yields are on the rise once more, putting pressure on risk assets across the board. Investors continue to put funds to work in the US, as fears of economic weakness in other parts of the economy grow. Today sees the Bank of Canada make its latest interest rate decision, while the latest US ISM services PMI will ensure that the focus remains squarely on the US economy.

How to trade Tullow Oil’s first half results? Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Commodities Tullow Oil Price Petroleum Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 15:37 What impact will Gabon’s military coup and the selling of Tullow Oil’s majority stake in Guyana have on its share price? Tullow Oil (TLW.L) has finalised an agreement to sell its majority stake in the unexploited fields located off the coast of Guyana to its minority partner, Eco Atlantic. The transaction is valued at $700,000 in cash. If a commercial discovery is made, Eco will pay Tullow an additional $4 million with a further $10 million due if Guyana grants a production license and royalty payments on future production. The deal will raise Eco's stake in the Orinduik field to 75%, making it the project's operator. TotalEnergies holds a 25% stake in this field. This strategic shift by Tullow aligns with its 2020 announcement to concentrate the majority of its spending on its existing infrastructure in West Africa, primarily in Ghana. However, Tullow Oil faced a significant setback in late August when its shares fell by around 12% following the declaration of a coup by military officers in Gabon, a country where Tullow has interests in several onshore and offshore fields. Despite this, the company has stated that its operations in Gabon remain unaffected by the ongoing political activity, and that production continues as usual. Gabon is the largest non-operated contributor to Tullow's oil production, with partners including Anglo-French oil and gas group Perenco and Paris-listed Maurel & Prom operating the fields. In conclusion, these developments underscore the company's ability to navigate geopolitical challenges while staying committed to its strategic goals, leading to a swift recovery in its share price since last week. How to trade Tullow Oil’s first half results? On Wednesday 13 September Tullow Oil is expected to publish its first half results which will likely impact its share price. Expectations for the upcoming results are as follows: Revenue of $704 million : -20% year-on-year (YoY) Earnings per Share (EPS) : $0.11: -38% (YoY) The company’s share price, which has risen year-to-date by nearly 5% and is thus outperforming the FTSE 100 index by around 6%, remains on an upward trajectory. Tullow Oil/FTSE 100 year-to-date comparison chart Source: Google Finance It has to be said, though, that Tullow Oil’s share price is far more volatile than the FTSE 100 with it having slid by nearly 40% earlier this year before regaining all of its losses and rising to this week’s high at 39 pence. Tullow Oil Daily Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview Tullow Oil’s share price is benefitting from the recent near 10% surge in the oil price on supply tightness to do with Russia agreeing with its OPEC partners on continued export curbs while Saudi Arabia aims to maintain its voluntary 1 million barrel per day output cut into October. The company’s share price is currently trying to overcome its August peak at 38.20p, a daily chart close above which needs to be made, for the next higher late-December 2022 and January highs at 39.70p to 40.20p to be in the frame. If overcome as well, there is nothing technically stopping the Tullow Oil share from heading back up towards its November 2022 49.48p high and the psychological 50p mark. Tullow Oil Weekly Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview The fact that Tullow Oil’s share price has broken through its 2022-to-2023 downtrend line at 35.00p and then revisited that breached trendline with last week’s bullish Hammer formation low on the weekly chart, points towards further upside towards the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at 41.86 and higher being on the cards. This bullish chart pattern will be confirmed if this week’s Friday close is made above last week’s high at 37.50p. The medium-term bullish technical view will remain valid while last week’s low at 31.66p underpins on a weekly chart closing basis. Unexpected failure at 31.66p would probably indicate the resumption of Tullow Oil’s long-term downtrend. Analysts recommendations and IG sentiment Fundamental analysts are torn between ‘hold’ and ‘buy’ with Refinitiv data showing 3 strong buys, 2 buy, 3 hold, 1 sell and 1 strong sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 47.50 pence for the share, around 24% higher than the current share price (as of 05/09/2023). Source: Refinitiv IG sentiment data shows that 95% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 5 September 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 5% of clients expect the price to fall whereas trading activity over the last week shows 81% of sells and this month 60% of sells. Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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US futures mixed while Nikkei 225 remains in uptrend US cash markets return from their long weekend and are quiet so far. Meanwhile, the Nikkei’s advance continues. Source:Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 Dow steady above 50-day MA US markets return from their break, with the Dow’s bounce having stalled since last week. Friday’s session witnessed the index attempting to push higher but running out of momentum. So far it is holding above the 50-day SMA, but a close below 34,700 might prompt a deeper reversal, towards the 100-day SMA. Bulls will want to see a close back above 35,000 to provide some positive short-term momentum and to open the way to the July highs. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 drifts lower in early trading Gains have also stalled for this index, though the uptrend remains firmly intact. Additional upside targets the late July high at 15,760, and then on to the mid-July high at 15,925. Beyond this the next major level is the record high at 16,630 from the end of 2021. For the moment the buyers still have the upper hand, but a close back below the 50-day SMA might signal a pullback towards the August low at 14,670. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 sitting just below 33,000 Japanese stocks continue to show strength, continuing to push higher despite the US holiday yesterday. Initial gains target the late July high at 33,430, with a close above here helping to solidify the view that the pullback from the June high has run its course. A move back below 32,400 might indicate that the sellers have reasserted control. Source: ProRealTime

WTI stalls while silver falls with orange juice expected to do so as well Outlook on WTI, silver and orange juice futures as US traders return from their Labor Day holiday. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 WTI stalls at ten-month high WTI’s 10% rally over the past couple of weeks on tighter supply and increased optimism surrounding China’s stimuli has taken it to $85.73 per barrel current September high. Below this level the oil price currently struggles to rise further still as China's services sector expands at its weakest pace in eight months. A rise above $85.73 would engage the 11 November 2022 high at $89.39 ahead of the psychological $90 region. Support can now be seen at the $84.39 August peak. Source: ProRealTime Silver on track for fifth consecutive day of decline Silver’s bearish reversal off its $25.01 August peak has swiftly taken it back down towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.62. Below it lurks the 200-day SMA at $23.46 which is also likely to be hit as the precious metal remains on track for its fifth consecutive day of decline. Were the 200-day SMA to give way, the early July high at $23.30 could be reached as well. A potential bounce is expected to encounter minor resistance around the 25 August low at $23.92 and also the 27 July low at $24.04. Source: ProRealTime Orange juice futures come off their recent all-time highs Last week front month orange juice futures shot up close to their August all-time high as hurricane Idalia and the spread of an incurable disease pushed prices higher. With overall orange juice production in the US hitting its lowest levels in the past century, front month orange juice futures have twice risen to the $332 region per 15,000 Lbs. during August before slipping back to the July high at $310.75 which offered support. Were it and the July-to-September uptrend line to give way, the 22 August low at $305.94 would be eyed, together with the $330 region. Such a bearish reversal scenario looks likely as last week’s bearish engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart points to, at least in the short-term, lower prices. The August low at $287.23 may also be in reached. Only a currently unexpected rise and daily chart close above the August peaks at $332.12 to $332.67 would push the $350 mark to the fore. Source: ProRealTime

The gold price is struggling to break the range as hurdles are ignored for now, while real yields have been strengthening and BRIC nations might be eyeing gold for alternative purposes. Source: Bloomberg Gold Forex Commodities United States BRIC Gold as an investment Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 US real yields hit 2009 highs The gold price continues to oscillate around US$1,940 going into Tuesday’s trading session as market headwinds might be offset by geopolitical factors that have seen volatility in the precious metal slide lower. US real yields have been on the march higher for the better part of 2023 and recently stretched to a 14-year peak at the 10-year part of the curve, trading above 1.90%. The real yield is the nominal yield less the market-priced inflation rate derived from Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) for the same tenor. The last time that real yields were this high was 2009, when spot gold was below US$ 1,000. More recently in 2018, when the real yield was near 1.0%, spot gold was under US$1,300 an ounce. BRIC nations eye alternative reserve currency Of course, there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then and the currents of demand have been tilted as the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations seek an alternative to the US dollar as a reserve currency. Much has recently been made of the potential for a gold-backed currency to allow these nations to bypass the US dollar in international trade. Such a system has proven to be a failure in the past for a multitude of reasons that are beyond the scope of this article. Refer to the Bretton Woods gold exchange for reference. On a recent trip to Western Australia, one the largest physical gold-producing regions globally, a number of contacts highlighted that almost every ounce of the yellow metal currently being dug out of the ground was being put on a ship to China. Such anecdotes of other BRIC members taking similar actions have been reported elsewhere. Keeping in mind that Australia, China and Russia are also the top producers of gold, it might be the case that gold hoarding has been a feature of the price action of late. Looking ahead, a break of the recent range of US$ 1,885 – 1,900 could be the catalyst for the next notable move for XAU/USD. Spot gold against US 10-year break yield Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Crude oil’s leap to new highs appears intact for now after a combination of production cuts and an inventory rundown boosted oil prices. Source: Bloomberg Commodities Petroleum United States WTI Price of oil Federal Reserve Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 The crude oil price is holding onto loft levels going into a new week of trading after making fresh highs on Friday with markets mostly seeing a good US jobs report. The WTI futures contract made a 10-month peak at US$86.09 while the Brent contract traded above US$89 for the first time since January. Production cut announcements from Saudi Arabia and Russia exasperated a fragile market after US inventory data revealed a surprising run down of stocks over the week prior. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report showed -11.486 million fewer barrels, while the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) weekly petroleum status report revealed a notable drop of -10.584 million barrels. More jobs but US unemployment on the rise Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) were seen as positive overall with more jobs added than anticipated but the unemployment rate saw an uptick. This was due to a higher participation rate and some downward revisions to prior readings. At the end of the day, the Fed is now widely forecast to remain on hold at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. US economic calendar Source: DailyFX The US had its Labour Day holiday yesterday and cash Treasury markets were closed but bond futures were pointing toward a slight uptick in yields. Canada was also on a Labour Day break. The US dollar is little changed although generally slightly weaker on Monday, but Asian-Pacific (APAC) equities have seen a good day. Of the main indices, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) has led the way higher, up over 2.5% today. Metals markets are firm again after solid gains last week. Spot gold continues to trade near US$1,940 an ounce. Looking ahead for the week, the Reserve Bank of Ausralia (RBA) and Bank of Canada will be making interest-rate decisions on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Jakarta gets under way tomorrow and the G20 will start later in the week in New Delhi. Seven Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) speakers are due to give thoughts publicly throughout the week but, closer at hand, ECB President Christine Lagarde will be talking later today. WTI crude oil technical analysis The WTI futures contract has eased today after making a stellar run higher last week, eclipsing the mid-August peak to trade as high as 86.09. Resistance could be at the breakpoint of 90.39 or at the twin peaks near 93.74. On the downside, support may lie at the breakpoints near 84.90, 83.50, 84.30 and 81.75. Further down, there is a breakpoint, prior low and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) in the 77.30 77.50 area which might provide a support zone. Crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

European markets navigate uncertainty as the European Central Bank rate hike prospects dwindle on concerning economic indicators and a potentially extended Federal Reserve Bank rate pause. Source: Bloomberg European Central Bank Indices Shares Central bank Inflation Federal Reserve Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 Investors hope for a skip from the Fed After a bruising first half of August, key European indices rebounded into month-end, supported by a positive lead from Wall Street and hopes that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) is at the end of its rate hiking cycle. While expectations for a skip from the Fed in September are firmly in place, the outlook for the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in September is less certain. Following the latest patch of worrying data in Europe, which includes sticky core inflation and evidence that the services purchasing managers' index (PMI) is now following the manufacturing PMI lower, the rates market expects the ECB to stay on hold in September. Additionally, there is little chance of a rate hike priced until December - undermining recent hawkish rhetoric from ECB speakers. Hawkish ECB hits European equities Traditionally, after the ECB has reached the end of its tightening cycle, European equities have not fared as well as other markets. This time around, it is unlikely to be different. Core inflation at 5.3% remains well above target, and the ECB deposit rate of 3.75% runs the risk of inflation staying above target for longer and becoming more entrenched in expectations. Attention now turns to the release of the final services PMIs for August tonight, followed by the release of retail sales for July and German factory orders tomorrow night. DAX technical analysis The manner in which the DAX reached the first upside target of 16,000 suggests that the rebound has been corrective, viewed as the second wave or Wave B of a three-wave corrective sequence. As such, providing the DAX remains below the resistance 16,070/120 area, we expect to see a retest of recent lows and support of 15,500ish. If the DAX were to see a sustained break of support of 15,500, there is very little in the way of downside support until the lows from March 2023, 14,700/600, area. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView FTSE technical analysis In late week's update, we stated, "While the FTSE holds above support at 7200ish, allow for a rebound back towards the 200-day moving average at 7625, with scope to the highs of July 7722 area," Despite its 2% rally since last week, the FTSE has fallen about 100 points short of the 200-day moving average now at 7630. While we can't rule out a final push higher, given the backdrop from the US and the German equity market, we think a retest of support at 7200 is looming in the weeks ahead. If the FTSE were to see a sustained break of support at 7200, there is scope to extend its decline towards 7000 before a retest of the 2022 lows 6800/6700 area. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of September 5, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian dollar bumper around after the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.10%; the last move by Philip Lowe was in line with market pricing and economist forecasts and the new RBA governor has hurdles ahead. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Monetary policy Australia GDP AUD/USD Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 RBA keeps cash rate steady The Australian dollar struggled to gain traction on Tuesday after the RBA left its cash rate at 4.10% as widely anticipated by the interest rate market and economists. The Aussie had been battling going into the decision on slight risk aversion sentiment with equity markets seeing a soft day. The S&P/ASX 200 slid slightly lower from the open but steadied in the afternoon session and was little changed after the RBAs announcement. Governor Philip Lowe's final decision The accompanying statement on the monetary policy decision by Governor Philip Lowe cited notable risks around services inflation, the uncertainty around the laggard effects of tighter policy, household consumption and the economic outlook for China given the problems in its property sector. The statement noted, “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks.” This was Mr Lowe’s last decision as Governor, and he will hand over the reins in a fortnight to Michelle Bullock. Ms Bullock has been the Deputy Governor of the bank since April 2022 and has been with the institution since 1985. She has a reputation as a leading economist in her own right. The appointment is mostly viewed as a steady transfer of leadership at a critical time for monetary policy at the RBA and her recent remarks point toward a similar approach to that of her predecessors. AUD/USD reaction to monetary policy Going into today’s monetary policy decision, AUD/USD had been slipping lower as the US dollar strengthened across the board, despite a holiday there overnight. Perhaps undermining the Aussie, headline current account figures missed estimates earlier today. However, on closer inspection, the statistics could be seen as neutral, given the upward revisions to the prior reading. In addition, net exports as a percentage of GDP were robust through the second quarter. This points towards another stellar trade surplus that will be released on Thursday. Australian data today Source: DailyFX China's struggles and Australia's GDP projections Elsewhere in Asia today, China’s attempts to reignite its economy continue to struggle to get off the ground with the Caixin services PMI missing estimates today, further highlighting the RBA’s concerns. It came in at 51.8 for June, rather than the 53.5 anticipated and 54.1 previously. The composite PMI was 51.7 against 51.9 prior. On Wednesday, 2Q Australian quarter-on-quarter GDP is forecast to be 0.3% against 0.2% previously. Annual GDP to the end of July is anticipated to be 1.8% against the prior read of 2.3% as the base effect kicks in. AUD/USD one minute chart price reaction to RBA hike Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

After a solid start to the week, Asian markets fell back, with the Hang Seng leading the decline with a loss of 1.5%. Weak demand meant that activity in China's services sector expanded at its weakest pace in eight months. Meanwhile, the RBA left Australian rates unchanged at 4.1%, for the fourth consecutive month. While inflation was judged to have passed its peak, it was still deemed too high by the bank. US markets return after their break yesterday, though with little on the calendar it is not expected to be a particularly volatile session.

Gold and natural gas move higher while oil holds near 2023 highs Gold and natural gas prices have recouped initial losses, while oil is sitting just below last week’s ten-month highs. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 04 September 2023 12:06 Gold steady in early trading Friday saw the price attempt a rally, but it ran out of steam below the 100-day SMA once again. If the price drops back below $1930 then a lower high could be in view once again potentially resulting in a move back to the August lows and bolstering the case for a new downtrend. It would need a move back above $1956 to cancel out that view and suggest that a new rally towards $1980 could be in the offing. Source: ProRealTime WTI at 2023 high Crude oil’s resurgence has seen the price move to its highest level since November, breaking through the early August high. This now puts the price on course to hit $89 in the medium term, a level last seen in mid-November. Beyond this, the October and November high at $92.95 is the next major target to the upside. Sellers have been firmly shut out of price action over the last week, and it would need a reversal and close back below $80 to suggest that bullish momentum has been arrested. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas rallies off opening lows While the price has rallied off the lows of late August, recent action has seen upward momentum stall. A close above 2900 would be needed to spur more bullish momentum that might then result in a move back to the 200-day SMA and the 3050 level that marked the August high. A close back below the 50-day SMA (currently 2690) puts the sellers back in charge with another attempt to move below the 100-day SMA beginning. Source:ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 track Asia higher while US is shut for Labor Day FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 face quiet day ahead as US is shut for Labor Day. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 04 September 2023 11:41 FTSE 100 begins week on a positive note The FTSE 100 extends its gains following a positive session in Asia on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won’t continue to hike its rates. The UK blue chip index is expected to overcome last week’s high at 7,510 with the 10 August high and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,624 to 7,641 representing the next technical upside targets for the days and weeks to come. This bullish scenario will remain intact as long as Thursday’s low at 7,419 underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Support above this low can be seen along the one-month uptrend line at 7,455. Intraday support can be found slightly higher up along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,481. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 expected to regain Friday’s losses The DAX 40, despite its second consecutive weekly close in the green, declined last week following last week’s European and US cooling employment data. While Friday’s low at 15,824 holds on a daily chart closing basis, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,947 is to be revisited. Above it beckon last week’s high at 16,044 and the 10 August high at 16,062. These highs need to be exceeded for a medium-term bullish reversal to occur. Minor support comes in at the 24 August 15,895 high and more significant support between Friday’s and Wednesday’s lows at 15,824 to 15,821. Further support comes in along the breached one-month resistance line, now because of inverse polarity a support line, at 15,650. Source: ProRealTime CAC 40 recovers from last few days’ of losses The CAC 40 will likely attempt to break last week’s three-day losing streak whilst tracking Asian stock indices higher. These got a boost as hopes of more China stimulus, this time a relaxation on restrictions in buying property, lifted the Hang Seng and other markets in Asia. Trading will probably be light, though, as the US will be shut for Labor Day. While the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,307 holds, the 24 August high at 7,345 may be revisited ahead of the August-to-September downtrend line at 7,392. For this short-term bullish scenario to play out, Friday’s low at 7,286 will need to hold, though. Should it not, the late July low at 7,251 may be revisited. Source: ProRealTime

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Slide as SEC Postpones ETF Decision A decision on spot Bitcoin ETFs is pushed back to mid-October by the SEC. Bitcoin gives back all of this week’s bullish run-up Bitcoin gave back nearly all of Tuesday’s rally on Thursday after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed making any decision on a raft of Bitcoin ETF applications. The SEC has now pushed back the latest deadline until mid-October. While this outcome was expected, a degree of hope had been building in the cryptocurrency market that a spot Bitcoin ETF would soon be announced. On Tuesday, the US Court of Appeal said that the SEC was wrong in rejecting Grayscale’s proposal to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF, fueling hope that a spot ETF would soon be granted. A Bitcoin spot ETF gives investors direct exposure to changes in the cash market - the ETF manager holds actual Bitcoins - while futures ETFs give investors exposure to moves in the underlying futures market. Bitcoin futures ETFs are already available in the market. BITCOIN (BTC), ETHEREUM (ETH) PRICES, CHARTS, AND ANALYSIS by Nick Cawley | Senior Strategist | Sep 1, 2023

US equity markets soar amidst hopeful signs of Fed rate pause; Nasdaq up 3.67%, S&P gains 2.50%, Dow Jones adds 490 Points (1.43%) and labour market data and inflation shifts fuel optimism. Source: Bloomberg Indices S&P 500 Labour economics United States Nasdaq Technical analysis Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 04 September 2023 08:25 US equity markets' post-Jackson Hole rebound US equity markets extended their post-Jackson Hole rebound last week as cooler-than-expected labour market data and lower inflation raised hopes that the Fed is at the end of its rate-hiking cycle. For the week, the Nasdaq added 3.67%, the S&P gained 2.50%, and the Dow Jones added 490 points (1.43%). Diverging sectors August's labor market report showed the US economy created +187k jobs, exceeding consensus expectations of +170k. However, a combination of downward revisions to the prior two months, the unemployment rate rising to 3.8% (the highest since Feb 22), and a softer-than-expected JOLTS job openings and ADP employment report earlier in the week will likely see the Fed stay on hold in Sep. Also, on Friday night, the ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 47.6 in August from 46.4 in July. Despite the improvement, it was the tenth consecutive month the manufacturing index has spent in contractionary territory (below 50). In contrast, the ISM services PMI, due out later this week, is expected to record its eighth month of expansion, highlighting the divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors. What is expected from ISM Services PMI Thursday, 7th Sept at 12.00 am AEST The market is looking for the ISM services PMI to fall to 52.5 from 52.7 in July. Additionally, it will look for some moderation in the Prices Paid sub-index, which last month rose to a three-month high of 56.8. Signs of moderation in the Prices Paid index would help provide the Fed with the flexibility to extend its pause past September. US ISM services PMI Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis Last week's recovery in the S&P 500 exceeded our own 4490/4500 reassessment zone, which resulted in a more neutral bias in the S&P 500. Taking a fresh perspective this week, the rally from the 4350 low to the 4547.75 high might be considered as Wave B or the second wave within a three-wave corrective sequence. If the S&P 500 fails to significantly extend its gains early this week beyond Friday's high of 4547.75 and subsequently loses support at 4480 (on a closing basis), it could signal the onset of the third wave of a correction, with support levels in the 4250/4200 area. However, it's important to note that as long as the S&P 500 remains above the support at approximately 4480, there's a possibility of a retest of the July high at 4634.50. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis Like the set-up touched on above in the S&P 500, it is possible that the rally in the Nasdaq from the 14,609 low to the 15,661 high is Wave B or the second wave of a three-wave corrective sequence. Should the Nasdaq fail to extend gains in the early part of this week above Friday's 15,661 high and then lose support at 15,320 (closing basis), it would warn that the third wave of a correction is underway, which targets support at 14,200. It's important to remain aware that as long as the Nasdaq holds above the support level at 15,320, there's potential for a retest of the July high at 16,062. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of September 04, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian dollar bounced off some trend lines last week, while the RBA appears certain to be on hold tomorrow as the guard prepares to change, and GDP data and China relationships may provide some impetus. Source: Bloomberg Australian dollar Dollar Forex GDP Australia China Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Monday 04 September 2023 07:26 Lowe's final RBA meeting The Australian dollar is steady near 0.6450 going into Monday’s trading session ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA’s) rate decision tomorrow and then gross domestic product (GDP) data on Wednesday. Tuesday’s RBA monetary policy committee meeting will be the last chaired by Governor Philip Lowe as he will be passing the baton to Michele Bullock later this month. Interest rate markets anticipate that the bank will keep rates on hold at 4.10% for the third month in a row after raising them by 400 basis points since May 2022. A Bloomberg survey of economists supports this perspective. Last week, the incoming governor made it clear that future rate decisions are a meeting-by-meeting scenario and data-dependent. The market is currently not pricing in any more hikes in this cycle and is looking for cuts in the cash at the back end of 2024. On Wednesday, Q2 quarter-on-quarter GDP is forecast to be 0.3% against 0.2% previously. Annual GDP to the end of July is anticipated to be 1.8% against the prior reading of 2.3% as the base effect kicks in. The US are on holiday today and market conditions could be skittish overnight on less liquidity. Elsewhere, the ASEAN 2023 summit gets under way in Jakarta tomorrow. It is being reported that Australian and Chinese officials will be meeting on the sidelines for the first time since 2020 when relationships soured. Although there are not expected to be any major announcements, the thawing of tension between the nations might be seen as a positive step by the markets. AUD/USD at a crossroads AUD/USD appears to be at somewhat of a crossroads. It has consolidated after bouncing off a long-term ascending trend line but remains in a shorter-term descending trend channel. The price remains below the 34-, 55- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA), which may suggest that bearish momentum is intact for now. The 0.6600 - 0.6620 area seems to be shaping up as a notable resistance zone with several breakpoints and prior peaks there. The 100-day SMA is currently just above there, near 0.6640 and if it clears that, it might indicate that the overall range trade scenario is intact for now. On the downside, support may lie at the breakpoints and previous lows of 0.6386, 0.6365, 0.6272 and 0.6170. The latter might also be supported at 161.8% Fibonacci Extension level at 0.6186. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.