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Having come close to their June all-time high, Oracle shares dropped heavily on disappointing earnings but remain in a long-term uptrend. Source: Bloomberg Shares Oracle Corporation Price Candlestick Revenue Cloud computing Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 16:41 Oracle shares drop but revenue from cloud services increased by 30% Oracle’s earnings were a classic demonstration of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’, as well as the old adage that ‘it is better to travel than to arrive’. After a huge rally this year, the stock saw significant profit-taking following its results. Oracle's shares dropped on Tuesday after the company reported first-quarter (Q1) results and revenue predictions that were lower than expected. The company's stock fell over 13% as a reaction to high expectations of its performance. Oracle, a leading company in database software and cloud computing, reported on Monday that its adjusted earnings for the first quarter, ending August 31, increased by 16% compared to the previous year, reaching $1.19 per share. The company′s revenue rose by $12.45 billion. Analysts had anticipated Oracle to have adjusted earnings of $1.15 per share on revenue of $12.45 billion, as per FactSet. After the report was published, Oracle CEO Safra Catz gave a forecast for the current quarter that was lower than what analysts had predicted. The company expects to earn $1.32 per share for the current quarter, with a revenue growth of 6% at the midpoint of the company's range. Oracle's (ORCL) stock fell to $109.62, marking a 13.5% loss in the stock market today. The disappointing earnings report from the company also negatively affected similar stocks. Revenue from Oracle's cloud services increased by 30% to 4.6billion, compared to $41.5 billion for the Q1. However, the company's older business lines continued to have difficulties. The revenue from cloud license and on-premises license fell by 10% to $800 million. Technical analysis on the Oracle share price Oracle’s share price, which year-to-date has risen by over 32% despite this week’s sharp sell-off, came very close to its June $127.54 record high on Monday when it hit $127.42. Oracle Weekly Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview The sharp drop in the Oracle share price has been seen by some as an opportunity to buy the share at discounted levels as it remains above its 2022-to-2023 uptrend line at $106.67. Together with the December 2021 peak at $106.34 it should act as good support. As long as the $106.67-to-$106.34 support zone holds on a weekly chart closing basis, the long-term uptrend will remain intact. If fallen through, however, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $99.25 could be reached. Oracle Daily Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview This week’s huge $124.72 to $113.30 price gap is expected to at least partially get filled while the long-term uptrend line underpins. The 55-day SMA at $117.25 represents a possible upside target ahead of the July peak at $121.36. Analysts’ recommendations and IG client sentiment Fundamental analysts rate Oracle’s share price between a ‘buy’ and ‘hold’ with Refinitiv data showing 5 strong buys, 9 buys but 18 holds - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $132.00 for the share, roughly 21% above the current price (as of 13/09/2023). Source: Refinitiv IG sentiment data shows that 84% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 13/09/2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 16% of clients expect the price to fall. Trading activity over the last week shows 57% of buys and this month 54% of buys. Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Next share price is in the process of breaking through resistance, could extend gains. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Price Next plc Candlestick Share price Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 16:04 Next beat estimates in Q2 Next had much better sales than anticipated for the second quarter (Q2) (April to June) of the year. In just the first seven weeks of the quarter, sales for Next climbed 9.3%. This greatly surpasses the company's own prediction of a 5% decrease in sales for the entire quarter. The increase in sales is likely due to nice weather, which often leads to more shopping, and a rise in real wages since April, which means people have more money to spend. But, there are potential problems. Growth should be driven by improving sales, while consumer spending in the UK has remained fairly stable. However, issues such as rising gilt yields, which could increase the cost of borrowing and spending for consumers, could pose a threat to future sales. Technical analysis on the Next share price Next’s share price, which has risen by over 21% year-to-date, remains on an upward trajectory with it this week briefly having risen above its July peak at 7,228 pence this week. Next Weekly Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview Once the current September high at 7,336p has been exceeded, the October 2021 low at 7,426 could be reached ahead of the December 2021 low at 7,564. Both of these lows are part of the lower boundary of the major 2021 sideways trading band and now resistance which reaches all the way to Next’s 8,484p September 2021 all-time high. This bullish forecast will remain valid while the August low at 6,724 holds. Next Daily Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview Support above the key 6,724p low comes in around the 7,092 mid-August high and also along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and early September low at 6,948p to 6,936. Analysts’ recommendations and IG sentiment Fundamental analysts mostly rate the Next share price as a ‘buy’ with Refinitiv data showing 5 strong buys, 8 buys, 10 hold, 1 sell and 1 strong sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 7,125.00 pence for the share, roughly 1% above the current price (as of 13/09/2023). Source: Refinitiv IG sentiment data shows that 53% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 13/09/2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 47% of clients expect the price to fall. Trading activity over the last week shows 54% of buys and this month 62% of buys. Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

US Headline Inflation Nudges Higher, the US Dollar Remains Nonchalant

IG client Kassar Khan talks about the mistake in not taking profits along a trend. As a trade develops Kassar highlights the importance of bringing in your stop loss along the way. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 September 2023 He says the temptation is to put all in, but feeding your business with profits along the way is essential to build your cash to be able to trade other markets. (Video Transcript) Managing risks and profits Okay, so this is key. For example, if you're on the Dow and you've had a good run, you might have been in it for three days, and it's been three green days on the Dow, now you believe it can run some more, but why not bank some profits? So let's say you're £50 a point, now you've had a great run and Dow over the last three days is up 900 points, but you know it's got room, it's got legs here, everything's good in the market and you know it can maybe go another 500, 600, 700 points, but you're leaving everything on the table, where anything could come up, a split second and all of a sudden now the Dow's hammering down and you're not sure, do I get out, do I wait, is it going to bounce, you're praying for it to spin round, what you could have done, when it's had that run, take £25. So you bank those profits and leave £25 on the table and as I said, do it as a business because then now your business has made money. So regardless of what happens, if you're right, don't look at it as, oh, I was right, I should have left the whole 50 on because it went another 600, 700 points, because another time it won't do that, but it's better to, a good friend of mine said it, he doesn't even trade the market, he said, no winner is a bad trade in a certain sense because you've made money and that's the most important thing, that you've made money here now. Scaling in and out And scaling in, so that was scaling in, scaling, sorry, scaling in is, that was obviously scaling out, scaling you would do, now you want to risk, you want to risk a bit more. Let's say you've had a good two months and you feel like, okay, out of some of my profits, I want to risk a bit more now, and you've maybe sat down, done your charts and looked at a trade for, you might even, sometimes you can be patient, I've been patient before as well and I've waited a couple of weeks, I think, okay, this is the right time to get in, it's at an area, it doesn't want to break this area, I think it's going to bounce here, but you know it can go a bit more, that's just the way the market is, no one can be 100% that it's going to go up or down. Scaling in Now instead of jumping, only jump in 50%, and then if you've charted well and it's going to go on the run you think, there'll be areas it gets to, maybe consolidates a little bit and then goes on a run again, you can now scale in there and get in more, maybe go in another 25% and then as it's running you can get in more and more and catch the whole move, if you've got it right you can catch the whole move and if you've got stops on you can just trail your stops with it, where some people are like, no I want to get in, I want to go all in here at the bottom, because I think this is the bottom, and then what happens is it's not the bottom, and now what you'll find is the market's actually trending downwards. Understanding risks And now they're just getting in more and more because they're waiting for that bounce and now all of a sudden they're going from risking 5% of their account, or the 5% of the profits they had made over the last two months, they're now risking 40% of the profits they made and this one trade can absolutely ruin you because now, I don't think you think the same, where had they just scaled in, had they got it wrong, they'd have only missed 50%, had they got it right they can just get in and they're still going to make, and they're going to make good money and they're going to feel more comfortable within their trade. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Learn about the importance of building up your knowledge of the financial markets before trading and to ensure your strategy has been tested first. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 12 September 2023 (Video summary) Are you treating trading like a serious endeavor or just a gamble? IGTV's Jeremy Naylor chats to IG market analyst, Axel Rudolph about the significance of viewing trading as a serious endeavour rather than mere gambling. Axel recommends having a carefully considered plan in place, preferably one that has been tested in advance. If you're not skilled in programming, it's encouraged to seek help from someone who is. However, even without programming skills, he suggests using a demo account to try out the strategy and see if it yields positive results over time. This testing phase is crucial in determining the effectiveness of the strategy. While executing the strategy in real-time can be challenging and demands practice, there are ways to improve trading skills. To enhance your trading abilities, Axel suggests building knowledge of financial markets. He recomms IG Academy as an excellent resource for learning about various financial concepts and strategies. This platform offers a plethora of free educational materials that can be studied thoroughly. Once you've absorbed this knowledge, it's encouraged to put it into practice and evaluate its effectiveness. Maximizing your trading potential: a roadmap to success In essence, Axel advises traders to approach trading with a serious attitude and a well-defined strategy in hand. He emphasises the importance of testing the strategy, whether through programming or utilising a demo account, to assess its potential for success. Additionally, he underscores the necessity for practice and gaining knowledge about financial markets. The IG Academy is presented as a valuable tool for learning and improving trading skills. So, by taking trading seriously, planning with a tested strategy, and constantly learning and practicing, traders can increase their chances of success in the market. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Crude oil prices close at highest since mid-November; retail traders become increasingly bearish, while WTI faces the 61.8% Fibonacci extension point. Source: Bloomberg WTI Price of oil Shares Commodities Market sentiment Petroleum Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 05:46 Crude oil sentiment outlook: bullish Crude oil prices are on pace to rise over 1.8% this week so far, with WTI also aiming for a fourth consecutive monthly gain. In response, we can see that retail traders have been becoming increasingly bearish the commodity. This can be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will oil continue higher next? According to IGCS, only 37% of retail traders are net-long crude oil. Since the majority of them are biased to the downside, this hints prices may continue rising down the road. This is as downside exposure increased by 10.17% and 12.70% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall exposure and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian outlook. US crude oil – IG Client Sentiment Source: DailyFX Crude oil technical analysis On the daily chart below, WTI has closed above a string of highs set over the past few days, reaching the highest since the middle of November. The push higher has also brought WTI to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level at 88.75, which is immediate resistance. A confirmatory breakout higher exposes the 92.43 – 93.72 resistance zone from October. That would open the door to an increasingly stronger bullish technical conviction. Meanwhile, immediate support seems to be the 84.84 inflection point from August. Just below that is the 50-day moving average (MA), which could reinstate the broader upside focus in the event of a stronger dip lower. Crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The gold price stabilised after the US dollar found support overnight; rising Treasury yields appear to be driving real yields ahead of US CPI, while a miss in CPI forecasts might have implications for real yields and XAU/USD. Source: Bloomberg Gold Commodities Forex Shares Consumer price index United States Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 06:45 Climb of US real yields undermines gold price The gold price dipped going into Wednesday’s trading session with the US dollar consolidating after Monday’s rout and ahead of US consumer price index (CPI) later today. Undermining the precious metal is the continual climb of US real yields. When we look at the bigger picture, the ascent of real yields might appear to be one-way traffic for now. If today’s US CPI figure falls short of expectations, it might see long-term inflation expectations dip, adding to real yields. If today’s US CPI figure beats estimates, it could add to worries of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This could lead to the back end of the Treasury yield curve backing up, potentially underpinning real yields, particularly around the closely watched 10-year part of the curve. A Bloomberg survey of economists is looking for headline CPI to print at 3.6% year-on-year to the end of August and 4.3% for the core reading. Looking at the chart below, energy appears to be a notable contributing factor to CPI. Crude oil was little changed through August but it has rallied significantly in September. US CPI year-on-year chart Source: Bloomberg and tastytrade Real yields hit 2009 high US real yields have been on the march higher for the better part of 2023 and recently stretched to a 14-year peak at the ten-year part of the curve, trading above 1.95%. The real yield is the nominal yield less the market-priced inflation rate derived from Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) for the same tenor. It is looked at by markets as the true return of an investment as it allows for the time value of money that is impacted by price changes through inflation or deflation. When we strip out the components of the real return, it is apparent that nominal yields have been driving real yields higher with the market-priced inflation expectations steady near 2.3%. That is slightly above the Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed’s) CPI target of 2%. The last time that real yields were this high was 2009 when spot gold was below $1,000. More recently in 2018, when the real yield was near 1.0%, spot gold was under $1,300 an ounce. Spot gold against US ten-year real yield chart Source: TradingView Gold technical analysis Of course, a global pandemic and a European theatre of war have opened up a different era and consequent change in the dynamic of demand for gold. Looking ahead, a break of the recent range of $1,885 – $1,900 could be the catalyst for the next notable move for XAU/USD. Click on the banner below to learn more about range trading. The gold price appears to be ensconced in the range for now, having traded between $1,885 and $1,897 for six months. Support could be in the $1,885 – $1,895 area where there are a series of prior lows, a breakpoint, and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of the move from $1,614 up to $2,062. Further down the 50% Fibonacci Retracement at 1838 might lend support. On the topside, resistance might be at the recent peaks of 1953 and 1897 or the spsychological level of 2000 where there is also the breakpoint nearby. Gold daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Still-hot UK wage growth hasn’t translated yet into higher GBP/USD; EUR/GBP is frustrating the bears by holding above vital support, while GBP/JPY continues to be well guided by a rising channel. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Pound sterling GBP/USD EUR/GBP Euro Manish Jaradi | DFX Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 No sign of improved sterling performance The British pound is testing crucial support against the US dollar ahead of UK gross domestic product (GDP) data due later Wednesday. The pound has been underperforming against some of its peers in recent weeks and, so far, there is no sign of reversal. The mixed UK jobs data on Tuesday did little to alter the soft bias. The blistering wage growth seals the case for a 25-basis points rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) when it meets on September 22.  BoE Governor Andrew Bailey last week said interest rates might rise further due to stick price pressures, but the central bank is “much nearer” to ending its tightening cycle. The key focus now shifts to UK GDP for July – expected 0.4% on-year, down from 0.9% in June. The three-month average, however, ticked up to 0.3% in July from 0.2% previously.  GBP/USD daily chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD: testing vital support On technical charts, the failure so far this month to rise past immediate resistance at the early-August high of 1.2820 has kept the downward bias intact for GBP/USD – a risk highlighted in the previous update. Furthermore, in a sign of weakness, GBP/USD has failed to hold above vital converged support on the 89-day moving average, the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts, and the end-June low of 1.2600. On the previous two occasions since the end of 2022, the pair has rebounded from similar support (see the daily chart).  GBP/USD 240-minute chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD tests a crucial cushion The pair is now testing a crucial cushion on the 200-day moving average (MA) – the last time it was decisively below this average was in 2022. So, a hold above is key for the broader bias to stay constructive. From a medium-term perspective, the rise in July to a multi-month high has confirmed the higher-tops-higher-bottom sequence since late 2022, leaving open the door for some medium-term gains. GBP/USD monthly chart Source: TradingView Look out for a higher 'high' Importantly, as pointed out late last year, a higher high this year (relative to 2022) could be unfolding into something more than just a corrective rebound, that is, it opens the door for a reversal of GBP/USD’s medium-term downtrend Whether the medium-term rebound is the start of a long-term uptrend? To be fair, such evidence is lacking. GBP/USD remains below major resistance on the 89-month moving average and the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly charts, coinciding with a downtrend line from 2014, suggesting the long-term downtrend is yet to reverse.  EUR/GBP: Still holding above Q2-2023 support line EUR/GBP continues to hold above the converged floor on a horizontal trendline from June and another horizontal trendline since late 2022 (at about 0.8550-0.8600). Still, unless the cross clears resistance at the mid-July high of 0.8700, the path of least resistance is sideways to down. EUR/GBP daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients

WTI rallies on tight supplies while gold falls and orange juice stalls near all-time highs Outlook on WTI, gold and orange juice futures ahead of US inflation data release. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 12:33 WTI trades in new ten-month highs WTI’s near 15% rally to a new ten-month high - as OPEC predicts tights supplies and as US stocks fall – is gunning for the psychological $90 mark. En route are the September, October and mid-November 2022 highs at $89.39 to $89.70. Slips should find support around the early September highs and the August-to-September uptrend line at $87.61 to $87.50. More important support comes in at the $84.39 August peak. Source: ProRealTime Gold price slips ahead of US CPI Gold’s 2% slide from its $1,953 per troy ounce early September high is ongoing ahead of today’s widely anticipated US CPI release. A fall through Tuesday’s low at $1,908 would put the July and 25 August lows at $1,904 to $1,903 back on the map. Resistance can be seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,921. While the next higher 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and Monday’s high at $1,931 cap, downside pressure should be maintained. Source: ProRealTime Orange juice futures trade close to their all-time record highs On Monday front month orange juice futures briefly made a new all-time record high before stalling. The August-to-September triple peaks from $332.67 to $332.84 per 15,000 Lbs. present formidable resistance as hurricane Idalia and the spread of an incurable disease pushed prices to these lofty heights. With overall orange juice production in the US hitting its lowest levels in the past century and as orange juice stockpiles shrink to a record low in top exporter Brazil, front month orange juice futures prices remain high. Provided that the recent highs cap on a daily chart closing basis, a slip back towards the July-to-September uptrend line at $317.50 may occur. As long as the late August and early September lows at $309.28 to $305.95 underpin, the medium-term uptrend will remain intact. Only a rise and daily chart close above Monday’s high at $332.84 would push the $350 mark to the fore. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 drop ahead of US CPI Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 following a drop in tech stocks ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI data release. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 12:41 FTSE 100 drops on disappointing UK growth The FTSE 100 is about to end its four straight day winning streak as much weaker-than-expected UK GDP pushes the index lower. UK GDP dropped by 0.5% month-on-month in July, the quickest pace in seven months, versus an expected 0.2% decline. Year-on-year GDP dropped to 0% versus a forecast 0.4%. The UK blue chip index is seen slipping back towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,476. Below it the breached July-to-September downtrend line at 7,468, because of inverse polarity, might also act as support. While this and last week’s highs at 7,524 to 7,551 cap, the index is expected to range trade with a slight downward bias. Only a rise and daily chart close above Tuesday’s high at 7,551 could open the way for the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,638. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 on track for second day of losses The DAX 40 is heading back down again as European Central Bank (ECB) sources suggested last night that inflation forecasts would remain above 3% in 2024, strengthening the view that an interest rate hike will follow at the meeting on Thursday. Last week’s low at 15,575 is thus back in focus. As long as it holds on a daily chart closing basis, Monday’s low at 15,723 may be revisited. The next higher July-to-September downtrend line at 15,850 and the 24 August high at 15,895 are unlikely to be revisited on Wednesday, though. Were last week’s low at 15,575 to be slid through on a daily chart closing basis, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and August low at 15,528 to 15,469 would be in focus. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 Following a weaker finish on Wall Street, where tech stocks fell after disappointment around the Apple product event and pre-CPI nervousness, the index remains under pressure. A tumble back towards last Thursday’s low at 4,430 low may be underway. Provided that last week’s low at 4,430 holds, a bounce back towards the 24 August high and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,474 to 4,479 may once more be seen, though. Above these sits this week’s high at 4,491 which needs to be overcome for the bulls to be back in control. A drop through 4,430 would put the March-to-September uptrend line at 4,416 on the map. Source: ProRealTime

As the US dollar follows its September trend, the looming decisions of central banks and inflation data may tie down its rampaging strength. Source: Bloomberg United States dollar Forex Consumer price index European Central Bank United States Inflation Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 US dollar's September rally So far this month, the US dollar has followed the plan, rallying +1.5%, in line with its ten-year average for September of +1.44%, before trimming gains at the start of this week. The catalyst for the pullback in the dollar was Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda, who noted over the weekend that the BoJ may take its next step towards policy normalization before year-end, along with incrementally better news and data from China. Adding to the dollar's retreat, there is a desire to lock in profits on US dollar longs ahead of tonight's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and tomorrow night's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. ECB's warning and dollar retreat Raising the stakes, the warning shot fired by ECB's Knot last week has been reinforced. Knot said markets were underestimating the chance of an ECB rate hike. Headlines at about 7.30 am AEST today noted that the ECB expected Euro Zone inflation to remain above 3% next year, which has seen the chances of a 25bp rate hike from the ECB on Thursday increase from about 35% to 55%. If US CPI prints in line (see below) and the ECB were to raise rates and sound hawkish, it could, in effect, see a 'Knot' tied around the US dollar into year-end. US CPI technical analysis Scenario analysis using core CPI Scenario 1: Core CPI YoY prints at 4.5% or higher This would imply that core inflation remains stickier than expected. It would likely see the rates market price in a 40-50% chance of a Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) hike in September and a 65-75% chance of a Fed rate hike in November. The DXY, will surge. Scenario 2: Core CPI YoY prints in line at 4.3% This would reinforce the current Goldilocks ‘not too hot, not too cold’ narrative around the US economy. It will keep the Fed on hold in September and, likely, in November as well - business as usual for the DXY. Scenario 3: Core CPI YoY prints at 4.2% or lower This would see the rates market jump for joy as it embraces the likely end of the Feds rate hiking cycle. Profit-taking would see the DXY slump by 1.5%. DXY technical analysis During the first half of 2023, the DXY, tested and held support at 101.00/80 on three separate occasions before declining following softer-than-expected inflation data in mid-July. As we've highlighted since late July here, the swift rebound back above 101.00/80 left the mid-July 99.57 low exposed as a false break lower. For followers of Elliott Wave, this was viewed as a Wave V low, following the completion of a five-wave impulsive sequence from the 114.78 September high, as seen on the chart below. The subsequent rally from the 99.57 low to last week's 105.15 is considered the first wave (Wave A) of a corrective rally. Once the current period of DXY strength has run its course, a pullback (Wave B) towards the 200-day moving average at 103.00 is likely. However, before that pullback (Wave B) commences and given the event risk this week, there's a possibility that the DXY could extend gains towards the March 105.88 high and beyond before reversing lower. In summary, we believe that the rally in the DXY is nearing completion, and the greenback is not too far away from a well-earned pullback. DXY daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of 13 September 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Focus for US CPI will be on whether a softer core inflation read will be sufficient for the Fed to keep rates on hold ahead, despite a resurgence in headline pricing pressures. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Shares Commodities Petroleum United States Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 13 September 2023 Market Recap Major US indices turned in weaker overnight, with the Nasdaq reversing its previous day’s gains, as big tech stocks faltered despite Treasury yields little changed. Apple’s new product launch failed to impress, prompting a 1.7% overnight drop in its share price. Its new iPhone selling prices seeing not much of an increase seems to provide testament to the still-soft demand for the global smartphone market, despite some improvement in global shipments in 2Q 2023. Ahead, all eyes will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data tonight, with the story likely to revolve around a resurgence in headline pricing pressures, but also further cooling in US core inflation. The headline inflation is expected to head higher to 3.6% from a year ago, up from the previous 3.2%. On the other hand, the core aspect is expected to moderate to 4.3% from previous 4.7%, with the key focus on whether a softer core inflation read will be sufficient for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep rates on hold into next year. The US dollar is little changed into today’s session, while US equity futures tread on their usual wait-and-see. Perhaps one to watch ahead may be the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF, which seems to display a potential head-and-shoulder pattern in formation. The neckline support at the 193.00 level may be crucial for buyers to defend, failing to do so may potentially pave the way to retest its May 2023 bottom at the 174.00 level next. Its weekly relative strength index (RSI) is currently back at its neutral 50 level, which may suggest a point of reckoning ahead. Source: IG charts Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a mixed open, with Nikkei +0.27%, ASX -0.62% and KOSPI +0.44% at the time of writing. Higher oil prices may keep an overall cautious mood in place, given that most economies in the region are net oil importers, while little moves around the US dollar may also call for some wait-and-see ahead of the US CPI release. Chinese equities largely remain in its subdued state, as investors also look towards a slew of economic data out of China this Friday, where the trend of downside surprises over the past months may keep sentiments in check for now. The economic calendar this morning saw South Korea’s unemployment rate head to a new record low in August (2.4% versus previous 2.8%), which may call for the Bank of Korea (BOK) to retain a hawkish stance and some policy flexibility for additional tightening if needed. That said, the USD/KRW did not see much of a move in today’s session, reflecting some reservations over prevailing growth risks justifying a prolonged rate hold for now. On the other hand, Japan’s wholesale inflation for August saw its eighth straight month of moderation, which provide room for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for a more gradual policy normalisation process. Upon a retest of the 145.80 level of support, the USD/JPY is back on its climb, further validating the level as a key support to defend for buyers. An ascending channel pattern remains broadly in place since the start of the year, which keep the overall trend bias to the upside. Further move above its early-September high could place the 149.90 level on watch next – the next level of yen-buying intervention by the BoJ back in October 2022. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: Brent crude prices continue its ascent to new 10-month high Following a slight consolidation over the past week, oil prices have resumed its ascent to deliver a new 10-month high overnight, successfully defending its key US$90.00 level for Brent crude. The latest surprise build in US crude oil American Petroleum Institute (API) data may serve as a slight dampener, but given that the trend from the official US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data over the past month is still on heavy drawdowns, while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories remain around its 40-year low, it may have to take more than a single data to overturn the tight-supplies narrative. A firm stick by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to its optimistic forecast for global oil demand into next year also provides some reassurances for the prevailing upward trend in oil prices since July this year. For now, as technical conditions head into near-term overbought territory, the US$90.00 will be on watch as immediate support to hold, while prices eye for a retest of the US$98.00 level ahead. Source: IG charts Tuesday: DJIA -0.05%; S&P 500 -0.57%; Nasdaq -1.04%, DAX -0.54%, FTSE +0.41% IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer. 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With thousands of ETFs to explore, here are five of the best to watch from around the world. This list includes passive and actively managed funds to suit various risk appetites. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Commodities ETF Investment S&P 500 Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Investing through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) is an incredibly popular trading strategy, among newer investors and old hands alike. ETFs allow you to buy into a ‘basket of securities’ based on a specific sector or investing approach, without having to buy the assets individually. Investing in an ETF therefore allows for increased exposure to a diversified range of investments, with the trading liquidity of equity instead of the rigidity of a mutual fund, and the ability to manage risk by trading futures just like an individual stock. Of course, ETFs can contain all sorts of investments, including stocks, commodities, and bonds. Other than the convenience, ETFs usually offer low expense ratios and lower broker commissions than buying the constituent assets individually. Naturally, there are many actively managed ETFs which are more expensive, but these tend to be less favoured than the passive funds. As inflation remains elevated amid the tightening monetary environment, and recession is potentially inbound, it’s not surprising that the diversification of ETFs appears more attractive to many investors than ever. However, it’s worth noting that an ETF will only ever perform as well as its underlying constituents. For the uninitiated, we offer an ETF screener that can help to inform your investing decisions — but these five could be some of the best to consider first. Top global ETFs to watch 1. iShares Core S&P 500 ETF There are many S&P 500 tracker ETFs, but the iShares offering is perhaps the most accessible to UK investors. The ETF attempts to exactly follow the performance of the US S&P 500 index, which tracks the performance of the largest 500 companies listed stateside — including market titans such as Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft, but also smaller mid-sized companies that could grow into the blue chips of tomorrow. The ETF has an expense ratio of just 0.03%, and the wider index has delivered average annual returns of 10.15% since 1957. This reliable return makes the tracker an exceptionally popular ETF for SIPP holders looking to benefit from long-term capital gains growth — and though past performance is no guarantee of future success, S&P 500 index investing is widely considered to be a lower-risk investing strategy. One issue to consider is that this ETF has lower liquidity than others on the market with higher expense fees, so is better suited to long-term investors. 2. ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence ETF The Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF is focused on businesses driving ‘transformative innovations in robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence.’ These themes — and specifically artificial intelligence — are driving much of the stock market growth in 2023 after the advent of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The ETF invests in 80 businesses focused on AI and cloud computing, including Fanuc, IPG Photonics, Kardex, and Samsara. These are not mainstream names but are at the forefront of robotics development — and at lower than expected risk. The ETF has come close to matching S&P 500 returns over the past decade. 3. iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF The iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF focuses on the most appealing strength of the some of the best London-listed companies — reliable dividend returns. Instead of investing in all the companies on the FTSE 100 or FTSE 250, it instead offers diversified exposure to the top 50 UK companies within the FTSE 350 with the highest dividend yield (excluding investment trusts). British American Tobacco, Rio Tinto, Vodafone, and HSBC are its top four holdings, alongside other miners, banks, and several defensive stocks with a reliable history of dividend pay-outs. Of course, there are risks — dividends are not guaranteed and cyclical companies like Rio Tinto or Persimmon can see their dividend yields fall in poor years. 4. ARK Innovation ETF Cathie Wood's polarising ARK Innovation ETF gained significant attention in the pandemic years for its remarkable performance in favourable market conditions. However, you pay for active management; ARKK's expense ratio stands at 0.75%. Despite facing challenges in 2022, ARKK has rebounded by 53% in 2023 as investors consider the impact of AI, alongside hopes that the Federal Reserve is close to finishing its rate hiking cycle as inflation falls to more manageable levels. 2023 has been exceptionally positive for growth-focused assets, and many of the fund's holdings have experienced extraordinary growth. Top holdings, such as EV trailblazer Tesla, have recovered lost ground — and cryptocurrency exchange operator Coinbase has surged after the SEC’s failed lawsuit against XRP. 5. Procure Space ETF The Procure Space ETF trades under the UFO ticker but could be a serious choice for investors looking to invest in space technology developments and the commercialisation of space. The ETF seeks to track an equity index called the S-Network Space Index, which follows a selection of space-focused companies. These include major satellite communications businesses such as Iridium, Sirius XM, and Garmin, as well as lesser-known companies like Trimble and Rocket Labs. While it also invests in defence companies like Boeing and Raytheon, at least 80% of the index weight is allocated to companies that derive a majority of revenues from space-related industries. UFO is a popular choice for investors waiting for the SpaceX IPO, but does come with a higher than average 0.75% expense ratio. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Glencore, M&G, and Imperial brands could constitute the three best FTSE 100 dividend shares to watch in October 2023. These shares have been picked for their elevated dividends, currently much higher than the index average. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Inflation Dividend FTSE 100 Investment Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London The FTSE 100 has experienced a volatile 2023, starting the year at 7,554 points, before breaking the symbolic 8,014 points barrier in February, and then falling to as low as 7,258 points during August. The index now stands at 7,499 points after yet more volatility — widely expected given the FTSE’s overweighted composition of oilers, miners, and banks. For context, FTSE Russell data shows that 82% of FTSE 100 companies’ income is derived from overseas. The next couple of weeks will be critical to deciding where the Bank of England may go regarding monetary policy. Unemployment figures, GDP data for July, and August’s CPI inflation statistics are all to come before the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. And perhaps more importantly, the Office for Budget Responsibility is compiling economic forecasts which will inform the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on 22 November. For context, the March budget forecast was that the Bank of England base rate would peak at 4.3%, and it’s already at 5.25%. Ten-year UK borrowing rates were forecast to be an average of 3.6% in March, and they reached 4.8% last month. And the OBR had at the time stated that a 1% point rise in borrowing costs would end up ‘wiping out headroom’ the Chancellor might want for tax cuts. In a pre-election era, one where the government must now fork out the cash to repair or replace school buildings while also hoping to deliver some tax cutting, it continues to be an uncertain environment. The Chancellor even told Bloomberg that an increase in fiscal headroom was ‘unlikely’ given that inflation has remained stickier than predicted in March — and noted that ‘when you're trying to bring down inflation, you have to be really careful not to pump extra money into the economy.’ Regarding inflation, while CPI dipped from 7.9% in June to 6.8% in July, the Bank thinks rising petrol prices will push this crucial figure back up to 7.1% in August. However, Governor Andrew Bailey told MPs last week that inflation should still fall ‘markedly’ by the end of 2023, with rates ‘much nearer now to the top of the cycle.’ Nevertheless, MPC member Catherine Mann has warned that she would ‘rather err on the side of tightening.’ If CPI inflation does indeed rise the day before the MPC meeting, a 25 basis points rise in the base rate may become likely — particularly when you consider the revised GDP figures, showing the UK has recovered from the pandemic far faster than previously through. As an aside, £9 billion packaging titan Smurfit Kappa plans to merge with rival WestRock and leave the London Stock Exchange for the NYSE — adding to the UK’s market woes. But of course, where there’s uncertainty, there’s opportunity. Best FTSE 100 dividend shares to watch 1. Glencore Glencore's half-year adjusted core earnings were perhaps disappointing, falling by more than 50% to $9.39 billion, a far worse result than average city analyst estimates. However, the dividend yield remains at 8%, indicating a potentially attractive entry point for a company that may be a little oversold. As CEO Gary Nagle notes, this period ‘may not be the bonanza that everybody was expecting, but China is not all that bad,’ referencing the country’s increased governmental economic support promises as it fights creeping deflation. Further, the company is gearing up for the next bull cycle, especially in the critical minerals space. It’s made a $22.5 billion bid for Teck’s coal assets, and has increased interests at various companies while simultaneously selling off 20 non-core assets. 2. M & G M&G is fast becoming a popular FTSE 100 dividend stock among some investors. The savings and investment provider plans to generate operating capital of £2.5 billion by the end of 2024, and yet still boasts a double-digit dividend yield of 10%. In Q1 results in June, CEO Andrea Rossi enthused that ‘M&G started the year building on our strong momentum from 2022. At the full-year results we identified three priorities for the Group: maintain financial strength through capital discipline, simplify the business, and deliver profitable growth focusing on Asset Management and Wealth. I am pleased to say we have made good progress on each of those fronts and are on track to deliver on our ambitious targets.’ Encouragingly, the company saw £1 billion in net client inflows in the wholesale asset management division — an excellent result in a high rate environment. Having returned close to £1 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, the all-important Solvency II coverage ratio still stands at an impressive 200%, and the company may report another excellent set of results later in September. 3. Imperial Brands Imperial Brands — despite potential ESG considerations — remains a popular FTSE 100 dividend stock, with a dependable dividend currently yielding 8%. Tobacco companies are highly defensive companies which are also typically highly cash generative given the addictive nature of nicotine. While traditional tobacco products may be declining in some markets, the company is investing heavily in new categories including vaping. Half-year results saw ‘next generation product’ net revenue rise by 19.8% year-over-year, with this acceleration ‘driven by product launches across categories.’ Meanwhile, operating profits rose by 28% year-over-year to £1.5 billion, mostly as the comparative period included the costs of exiting Russia. However, revenue also increased slightly by 0.3% to £15.4 billion, while volume falls in Germany and the UK were offset by rising sales in Australia, Spain, and the US. While net debt is rising due to increasing investment in its next generation products, the dividend rose by 1.5% — and Imperial remains on track to complete its promised £1 billion share buyback program this year. Remember, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Following Ocado takeover speculation in June its share price nearly tripled: does the current retracement lower represent a good buying opportunity? Source: Bloomberg Shares Ocado Grocery store Retail Price Supermarket Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 12 September 2023 What to watch out for regarding Ocado Ocado, the innovative online grocery company, has disrupted the traditional supermarket industry with its automation and efficiency. By streamlining the process of fulfilling online orders, Ocado has surpassed physical stores in the online grocery market. But the company's ambitions don't stop there. Building on its success as an online grocery retailer, Ocado now offers complete solutions for automating online groceries to stores worldwide through its technology solutions branch. This branch has experienced remarkable growth, with a 59% year-on-year increase. As grocery stores face tighter budgets, there is a strong incentive to enhance operations, and Ocado's products have proven effective in achieving that. For example, retailers like Kroger have witnessed a 25% increase in productivity after adopting Ocado's products. Once stores have implemented Ocado's hardware, it becomes challenging to switch away, leading to loyal customers and a 61% year-on-year growth in recurring fees. While this tech solutions branch currently represents only 11% of Ocado's total income, the company's management predicts significant future growth, projecting a 40% increase in revenue. This positive outlook has been well received by investors. However, there are concerns about Ocado's financial situation. Net losses have been growing, primarily due to inflation. The supermarket industry has been particularly affected, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) falling from £31.3m in the first half of 2022 to a £2.5m loss in the first half of 2023. On a more positive note, Ocado has managed to slightly improve its market share, and management expects slightly positive EBITDA in the retail sector next year. Furthermore, the company's capital expenditures remain high due to investments in the tech solutions branch, which have increased by 18.9%. With rising interest rates and uncertain macro conditions, the lack of profitability not only dampens investor sentiment but also adds volatility to the stock. Technical analysis on the Ocado share price Ocado’s share price, the darling of short-sellers in 2021 and 2022, reversed its fortunes when Amazon takeover speculation led to a near tripling of its share price from its five-and-a-half year June low at 342.00p to its 1,017.00p July peak. Ocado Weekly Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview From that peak the Ocado share price has been drifting lower since, so far reaching an August low at 712.80p, before making another attempt to the upside in late-August and early-September before sliding to the June-to-September uptrend line which currently underpins. Were it to be slipped through, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 752.6p may offer support, together with the 712.8p August low. While it holds on a daily chart closing basis, the medium-term uptrend from the June trough remains intact. Ocado Daily Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview Were support at 712.8p to give way, however, the 200-day SMA at 610.6p would be back in the picture. For the bulls to be back in control a rise and daily chart close above the current September high and the 2021-to-2023 downtrend line at 902.4p to 922.2p would need to occur. In case of the July peak at 1,017p being exceeded, the April 2022 high at 1,249.5p would be back in sight. Analysts’ recommendations and IG sentiment Fundamental analysts are torn between ‘hold’ and ‘buy’ for the Ocado share price with Refinitiv data showing 6 strong buys, 1 buy, 6 hold and 4 sells - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 680.00 pence for the share, roughly 18% below the current price (as of 12/09/2023). Source: Refinitiv IG sentiment data shows that 80% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 12/09/2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 20% of clients expect the price to fall whereas trading activity over the last week shows 65% of buys and this month 70% of sells. Source: IG

Brent crude oil trades near 10-month, sugar near 12-year highs while copper stalls Outlook on Brent crude oil, copper and sugar ahead of OPEC and US EIA monthly outlook reports. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 12 September 2023 Brent crude oil trades close to ten-month high The price of Brent crude oil remains close to its ten-month high seen on Monday at $91.18 as investors await key monthly outlook reports by both OPEC and the US EIA later on Tuesday. A rise above the $91.18 high would push the July 2022 low at $92.43 to the fore and perhaps also the mid-September 2022 high at $95.19. Potential slips should find support around Friday’s low at $89.09. While it underpins, further upside pressure remains in store. Further down potential support can be spotted between the 5 September and mid-August high at $87.92 to $87.83. Source: ProRealTime Copper price rise stalls A pullback in the US dollar on Monday ahead of key US inflation data on Wednesday boosted risk sentiment and made dollar-priced commodities such as copper more attractive for international buyers. Following last week’s 3% drop in the copper price, it regained most of its losses by rising to the 55-day simple moving average at $8,422 per tonne on Monday but is being capped by it on Tuesday morning. A rise above this week’s high at $8,431 is needed for another potential bullish leg to gain traction and for the August-to-September downtrend line at $8,516 to be back in sight. Further up lies more significant resistance between the early September high and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,599 and $8,604. Minor support is to be found around the 25 August low at $8,323 ahead of the 8 August low at $8,278. Source: ProRealTime Sugar #11 consolidates below 12-year high Front month sugar futures short-term consolidate below last week’s near 12-year high at 27.22 and currently trade back below their 26.81 April peak, as deficient rains lead to concerns about Indian sugar production. While the 7 September low at 26.16 underpins, the odds continue to favour an upside break. A daily chart close above the 27.22 high would target the psychological 30.00 mark. Minor support below the 26.21 to 26.16 June peak and Thursday’s low sits at the late August 26.11 high. While the last significant reaction low – the late August trough at 25.30 -  underpins, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. A reaction low is made when the low of a daily candlestick is below that of the day preceding it and the day following it. Source: ProRealTime

Dow, Nasdaq 100 and CAC40 push higher Indices have moved higher on Monday, with signs that the rally may continue today. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 12 September 2023 Dow makes further gains The index has spent the past three sessions rallying from last week’s low, and is now challenging the 50-day SMA from below. A close above 35,000 is critical to a renewed bullish view emerging, as this would signal that a higher low has formed in late August and early September, and could see a fresh move back to 35,600, the highs from July. Sellers will need a close back below 34,280 in order to suggest that a new leg lower is developing. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 rallies off 50-day MA After stabilising on Friday, the index pushed back above the 50-day SMA on Monday, setting up another possible attempt to break above the late August high. From there the 15,760, 15,932 and then the 16,021 levels come into view. The recovery from the August lows has helped to renew the bullish view. It would require a move back below 15,270 to negate the short-term bullish view, and this might then bring the 14,690 support zone back into play. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 rises for another day The index maintained the bullish momentum seen on Friday, after the price rallied back above the 200-day SMA. Having averted a deeper pullback for now, the index could now push back to 7400, or on to the late July highs at 7509. This would then put the index back on course to target the 2023 high at 7588. Sellers will need a close back below 7110 to result in another test of the 7100 support zone. Source: ProRealTime

Have Alibaba shares resumed their bearish trend? Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Alibaba Group Cloud computing Price Candlestick Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 15:16 Have Alibaba shares resumed their descent? Shares for Alibaba fell more than 4% in Hong Kong on Monday after their former CEO, Daniel Zhang, stepped down. This occurred just two months after he had shifted his focus to the company's cloud computing division, leading to concerns about the future of this division and potential disagreements within the company's leadership. Eddie Wu, the new CEO, will also take on the role of acting CEO and chairman of a struggling sales unit, which is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) scheduled for the upcoming year. In June, Alibaba announced that Zhang would step down from his CEO position to concentrate on the cloud division, which is the company's second-largest source of revenue. Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence Group, which was valued between $41 and $60 billion earlier this year, is one of five divisions that Alibaba is planning to separate in the largest restructuring in the company's 24-year history. Despite the changes, Alibaba stated it will continue with its plan to separate the cloud division under a yet-to-be-named management team. It previously announced that it aims to complete this process by May 2024. Alibaba analyst ratings, price targets and sentiment Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Alibaba. Analysts show 16 strong buys, 28 buy and 5 hold - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $142.00 for the share, roughly 58% higher than the current price (as of 8 September 2023). Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 98% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 11 September 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while only 2% of clients expect the price to fall. Trading activity over this week shows 59% of buys and this month 60% of sells. What does the technical picture look like? Apart from Alibaba’s swift 37% rally at the beginning of January, its share price has been greatly underperforming other technology stocks over the course of the year and currently shows a year-to-date performance of -2%. When looking at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listed Alibaba share price one can see that last week the stock price already gapped lower and was already trading back below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $92.58 which is never a good sign for the bulls. NYSE Alibaba Daily Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview The further sharp drop in the share price on Monday morning in Hong Kong is expected to take its New York share price to below its October 2022 to September 2023 uptrend line at $87.15 to its August low at $86.86. A daily chart close below the August trough would open the door for the March and May lows at $79.48 to $77.77 to be revisited. Above these lows potential support can be found around the $82.64 July low. NYSE Alibaba Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview While the Alibaba share price remains below its last reaction high – a high on a daily candlestick which is higher than the one preceding and following it – the recent downtrend is expected to continue. It was made at the beginning of September at $96.68. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Gold and silver edge higher while WTI price targets fresh gains Some dollar weakness has allowed gold and silver prices to recoup some losses, while oil is looking for new gains once again. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 Gold’s bearish view held back for now Early trading on Monday has seen gold manage to rally off the 200-day SMA, after falling back from the 100-day SMA during the course of September so far. Should the price manage a close back above the 50-day SMA, then additional bullish momentum could see the price mount an attempt to clear the late August high around $1950, and if this is successful, the late July high around $1980 then comes into view. A close below $1915, last week’s low, hands the initiative to the sellers once more, and brings the August low around $1885 into view once more. Source: ProRealTime WTI rises once again After a brief wobble last Thursday, the price has recovered and is back on the up once more. A close above last week’s high of $87.70 would then open the way to $89 and then the October/November high at $92.95. Momentum remains firmly bullish, with the daily MACD continuing to rise, and the medium-term view has been supported by the mid-August golden cross of the 50- and 200-day SMAs. So far sellers have been unable to wrest control of the price action, and for a pullback to develop we would need to see a close back below $84. Source: ProRealTime Silver rallies off its lows The price has made headway in early trading, although there is a long way to go before it can make up the losses suffered over the last two weeks. If the price stabilises around these levels then a move back above the 200-day SMA might help to solidify a near-term low. This might then allow an eventual move towards the late August highs around $25. A close below $22.84 would reverse this view and open the way to the August lows at $22.30. Source: ProRealTime

Nikkei 225 under pressure on hawkish BoJ but FTSE 100, DAX 40 positive Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nikkei amid improving sentiment on hopes of soft US landing. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 FTSE 100 still tries to push ahead Last week the FTSE 100 outperformed its European and US counterparts by ending the week up 0.2% and not in the red like the others as the index benefitted from the rise in oil and gas prices. The UK blue chip index is seen breaking through its July-to-September downtrend line at 7,485, attacking the early September high at 7,524. Further up the early July peak can be spotted at 7,532 ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,638. Minor support can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,475 and also at the 7,437 early August low as well as the 7,419 late August low. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 to open up after dismal week The DAX 40 dropped 1.2% last week as Euro Zone growth worries, a rising US dollar and yields pushed the index to a two-week low at 15,575 before stabilizing on Friday. While last week’s low at 15,575 holds on a daily chart closing basis, the 24 August high and July-to-September downtrend line at 15,895 may be revisited. This scenario would become more likely if today’s daily chart close were to be made above Friday’s 15,787 daily candlestick “Hammer” high which would trigger a bullish technical reversal signal. Slightly further up meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,927. Were last week’s low at 15,575 to be fallen through on a daily chart closing basis, though, the 200-day SMA and August low at 15,514 to 15,469 would be back in sight. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 Following last week’s slide in line with other major global stock indices on worsening sentiment, the Nikkei 225 also began this week on a weaker footing. The index dropped by half a percentage point as the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Kazuo Ueda signaled that the negative rates policy could be ended by the start of 2024 if wage inflation were to persist. The Nikkei 225 touched the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 32,411.9 which so far acted as interim support. Below it the August-to-September tentative uptrend line can be found at 32,294.0 which would be expected to hold, though. A rise above Monday’s 32,759.0 intraday high is needed for at least a minor bottom to be formed. Source: ProRealTime

The AUD/USD attempts to form a temporary base, although the consolidation/correction in EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD may not be over yet. Source: Bloomberg Australian dollar Forex Shares AUD/USD EUR/AUD GBP/AUD Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 07:48 AUD/USD: Growing odds of a minor rebound After an initial attempt to break higher in late August, AUD/USD is back around its August lows. However, a new/minor high created at the end of last month raises the prospect of AUD/USD retesting the 200-period moving average on the 240-minute charts (now at about 0.6500). Zooming out, in recent weeks, AUD/USD has been attempting to hold above quite strong support on a downtrend line from the end of 2022. Any break above the August 30 low of 0.6525 could indicate the start of a material consolidation. That’s because, on higher timeframe charts, including the weekly charts, AUD/USD is looking oversold and is showing tentative signs of fatigue. AUD/USD 240-minute chart Source: TradingView EUR/AUD: Consolidation within a broadly bullish phase The failure of EUR/AUD to resume its uptrend last week could be a sign that the consolidation that started last month isn’t over. EUR/AUD retreated from near a tough hurdle at the end-August highs of around 1.6880, coinciding with the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the 240-minute charts. The cross is now testing a vital floor area: the 200-period moving average, slightly above a horizontal trendline since August (at about 1.6635). Any break below 1.6635 could raise the odds of further losses, initially toward 1.6450. EUR/AUD 240-minute chart Source: TradingView GBP/AUD: Testing a crucial cushion GBP/AUD is testing a crucial converged cushion: the 200-period moving average, coinciding with a horizontal trendline from the end of August (at about 1.9450), not too far from an uptrend line from June. A hold above the support area is key for the uptrend to resume. To be sure, a break below isn’t imminent, but any break below would point to an extended consolidation with a slightly weak bias. On the upside, GBP/AUD would need to break above last week’s high of 1.9750 for the bullish bias to resume. GBP/AUD 240-minute chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

US equity markets faced headwinds last week as rising yields and economic data signaled challenges ahead; the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones experienced losses and all eyes are on the crucial CPI release. Source: Bloomberg Indices Inflation Consumer price index Federal Reserve Core inflation S&P 500 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 09:58 US equity markets closed lower last week as US yields resumed their march higher on the back of robust economic data, corporate issuance, and higher energy prices. For the week, the Nasdaq lost 1.4%, the S&P500 lost 1.29%, and the Dow Jones lost 0.75%. Ahead of Wednesday night's all-important CPI release, the rates market is assigning a 93% chance that the Fed will keep rates on hold in September. It then sees a 43% chance of a rate hike in November, which we think will likely be the one that ends the Fed's rate hiking cycle. What is expected from the CPI data Thursday, September 7 at 12:00 am AEST In the previous month, the headline CPI accelerated to 3.2% from 3.0% in June but remained below forecasts of a rise to 3.3%. This marked the end of 12 consecutive months of declines in headline inflation due to base effects. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, eased to 4.7% last month from 4.8%, reaching the lowest level in twenty-two months but still remaining well above the Federal Reserve's target. For the current month, the forecast for US headline CPI is a 0.6% month-on-month (MoM) increase, which would result in an annual rate of 3.6% year-on-year (YoY). In contrast, core inflation is expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, leading to an annual rate decline to 4.3%. While it is likely that inflation has reached its peak, core inflation remains persistent. The Federal Reserve will closely monitor the data in the coming months to confirm that progress is being made toward lower inflation levels. US core inflation chart Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis The prevailing perspective suggests that the correction in the S&P 500, which commenced in July, still has room to extend. Specifically, we anticipate another downward move to retest and breach the mid-August low, with the potential to challenge the uptrend support at 4250, thereby completing a Wave IV (Elliott Wave) corrective pullback. If the anticipated pullback unfolds as projected, we would then foresee a recovery phase. This recovery could entail the S&P 500 testing and surpassing the highs of July, possibly positioning itself for a test of the bull market's 2022 peak at 4818. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis Similar to the setup above in the S&P 500, the view remains that the correction in the Nasdaq, which started in July, has further to go. Specifically, we are looking for another leg lower to retest and break the mid-August low with the potential to test wave equality support in the 14,200/14,000 area to complete a Wave IV (Elliott Wave) corrective pullback. Should the pullback play out as expected, we then expect to see a recovery, which would see the Nasdaq test and break the highs of July and possibly set up a test of the bull market of 2021, with a high at 16,764. Nasdaq weekly chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of September 11, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Both retail traders and CoT speculators holding an identical majority sell 60% bias. Source: Bloomberg Shares Federal Reserve Central bank Federal Open Market Committee Price index Consumer price index Monte Safieddine | Market Analyst, Dubai | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 Light on data late last week, heavy on Fed member speak There was little to process late last week out of the US in terms of data, with consumer credit showing an ongoing tested consumer, with month-on-month (m/m) growth of $10.4 billion for July, which was a miss compared to its previous revised lower figure of $14 billion. However, while it lacked data, there was plenty of central bank speak to digest, with the Federal Reserve Bank's (Fed) Williams stating that current monetary policy is "in a good place" and dependent on the data. Logan mentioned that skipping in September "does not imply stopping," Goolsbee emphasized that avoiding a recession while bringing inflation down is "not a guarantee," even if it's possible. Both Bowman and Barr also commented on digital currencies. Coin-toss market pricing Stocks experienced a downward finish for the week, with technology stocks slightly underperforming. In the bond market, Treasury yields saw modest gains, and their real value remained relatively stable. Breakeven inflation rates showed an upward trend, while market pricing, as indicated by CME's FedWatch, indicated that the likelihood of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve was approximately a 50-50 proposition. However, this rate hike was not anticipated to occur in the upcoming month but rather in November or December, with the possibility of a rate cut being considered for June of the following year. The week ahead As for the week ahead, a very light start with little on offer today and the National Federation of Independent Businesses's (NFIB’s) release tomorrow before it gets far more interesting on Wednesday with the final piece before next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of August is expected to show a far greater month-on-month increase compared to July’s 0.2%, and where the year-on-year reading will rise from 3.2% (‘Nowcasts’ at 0.79% and 3.82%, respectively for August). Expect pricing to continue to capture some attention with Producer Price Index (PPI) the following day where the readings are far more contained with July at just 0.8% year-on-year headline and 0.3% month-on-month, trade pricing data on Friday where there was month-on-month growth last time around but still heavy negative year-on-year prints (export price index -7.9%, import price index -4.4%). Shortly thereafter, the preliminary figures are due from the University of Michigan (UoM) where its sentiment reading has been averaging higher since mid-2022 lows but still tested, and consumer inflation expectations above the central bank’s target but far more controlled as of late within the lower 3% handle. But that’s not all, as aside from the usual weekly readings we’ve got retail sales just as the consumer is expected to get further tested in the final quarter of this year, and auctions with the ten-year tomorrow and the 30-year on Wednesday where focus will be on whether the additional supply will find much-needed demand. Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels We're currently in a generally cautious phase when it comes to equities (and risk appetite in general). For this index, its previous 1st Support level managed to hold on the weekly time frame but lacked a trigger for cautious conformist buys. The gains late last week on the daily time frame failed to reach Thursday's 1st Resistance, even when factoring in Friday's small follow-through. When looking at the key technical indicators, the overview remains 'cautious consolidation' in both weekly and daily time frames. Source: DailyFX IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow CoT speculators are still majority sell here but have raised it to 60% on a larger drop in longs (2,980 lots) than shorts (1,256), while retail trader bias has fallen to 60% from 64% week-on-week. CoT speculators are still majority sell here but have raised it to 60% on a larger drop in longs (2,980 lots) than shorts (1,256), while retail trader bias has fallen to 60% from 64% week-on-week. Source: DailyFX Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: TradingView * The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of the start of this week for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the start of last week. ** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. 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Discover why the AUD/USD faced a challenging week, with RBA's rate decision and Chinese data impacting sentiment. Explore market dynamics and upcoming employment report expectations. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD Australian dollar United States dollar Employment Market trend Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 Intense market turbulence for AUD/USD Last week was torrid for the AUD/USD, with everything, including the proverbial kitchen sink, being thrown at the little Ozzie battler as it finished the week 1.15% lower at .6377. The aggressive selling in the AUD/USD kicked in last Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold at 4.10% for a third consecutive month, and following another round of dire Chinese data, the Caixin services PMI fell from 54.1 in July to 51.8 in August. Factors driving AUD/USD's bearish spiral As a sign of how bearish sentiment towards the AUD/USD has become, The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed that speculative net short positions in the AUD/USD rose to -83.5k last week from -70.2k. Notably, the new shorts were added not far above the major trendline support at .6360/50, which we first highlighted on August 21st . "The .6360/50 support level holds immense importance for the AUD/USD, stemming from the uptrend support from the Covid March 2020 low of .5509 and the .6170 low of October 2022. Experience shows that multi-week/month trend support levels seldom break on the first attempt." Crucial support and historical context While we don’t dispute the various reasons why the AUD/USD has attracted selling interest, we note that historically, when positioning and sentiment become too one-way in the AUD/USD, it often sets the scene for a position wash for the ages. A recent example is the almost ten, big-figure rally from the October 2022 .6170 low. What is expected from Thursday's employment report? This week, the key events on the local calendar are consumer and business confidence surveys on Tuesday, followed by an employment report for August on Thursday. Last month's data showed that the rate in Australia increased to 3.7% from 3.5% as employment fell by 14.6k. The participation rate also fell, dropping to 66.7%, which surprised many, as consensus expectations were for it to remain at 66.8%. "July includes the school holidays, and we continue to see some changes around when people take their leave and start or leave a job. It's important to consider this when looking at month-to-month changes, compared with the usual seasonal pattern." The fall in employment last month follows an average monthly increase of around 42,000 people during the first half of this year. Employment is still around 387,000 people higher than last July. September is looking for a +25k rise in employment and for the unemployment rate to edge lower to 3.6%. The participation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66.7%. AU unemployment rate chart Source: TradingEconomics AUD/USD technical analysis As we have noted consistently since August 21st and again last week, providing the AUD/USD remains above weekly uptrend support at .6360/50 (from the March 2020 .5509 low), allow for the AUD/USD to explore higher levels, initially towards .6520c with scope to .6600c and then the 200-day moving average at .6700c. Be aware that if and when the .6360/50 support level is breached on a closing basis, there may be limited downside support until reaching the .6200/.6170 range, last seen in October 2022. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of September 11, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The USD/JPY recoiled lower on Monday after remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda; BoJ might be prepping the market for policy adjustments further down the track, while the yield spread between JGBs and Treasuries could be worth watching. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Bank of Japan Japanese yen USD/JPY United States dollar Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 Ueda pushes on with 'persistent monetary easy policy' The Japanese yen has had a wild start to the week after comments from Bank of Japan Governor (BoJ) Kazuo Ueda opened the door to speculation for the end of its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In early Asian trade on Monday morning, USD/JPY retreated from its ten-month peak of 147.87. It traded down to 146.67 before steadying around 147. Today’s low was just above Friday’s low of 146.59. The Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper is reporting that Ueda san may tilt monetary policy if wages and prices rise, citing that there are various options. State to try 'variety of options' if wages, prices rise He made it clear that any policy adjustment will be dependent on circumstance by saying, “We have a variety of options if economic and price conditions turn upward.” However, the market might have got ahead of itself in seeking tightening from the BoJ. Ueda also remarked, “There is still some way to go before the price target can be realised. We will continue our persistent monetary easing policy.” The BoJ has a policy rate of -0.10% and is maintaining yield curve control (YCC) by targeting a band of +/- 0.50% around zero for Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) out to ten years. The bank has become flexible on YCC implementation, recently allowing the ten-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) to yield above 0.50%. It traded at 0.69% today, its highest return in almost ten years. The spread between JGBs and Treasury yields might be worth paying attention to as there has traditionally been a strong correlation to USD/JPY. The next few sessions may see some volatility in this part of the market. USD/JPY and yield spread between 10-year Treasuries and JGBs chart Source: TradingView Expect some USD/JPY volatility Governor Ueda’s comments follow some soft jawboning last week from Masato Kanda, Japan’s Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs and BoJ board member Hajime Takata. It might be reasonable to expect more remarks from Japanese officials if USD/JPY makes another move to the topside. The market is generally not anticipating physical intervention until the price moves toward 152.00, if at all. The November 2022 high was 151.95. USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY made a ten-month high last Tuesday before consolidating in a 146.59 – 147.87 range. A breakout on either side of the range could see momentum evolve in that direction. If a bullish run emerges, resistance might be at the prior peaks of 148.85 and 151.95. On the downside, support may lie at the breakpoints in the 145.05 – 145.10 area ahead of the prior lows near 144.50 and 141.50. The 34-day simple moving average (SMA) is also near 144.80 and may lend support. USD/JPY 24-day simple moving average (SMA) chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.