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Dow and CAC40 move higher but Nikkei 225 continues to struggle While the Dow is looking stronger ahead of more bank earnings, and the CAC40 is attempting to recover, the Nikkei is struggling to make headway. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 18 July 2023 Dow pushes up ahead of bank earnings Further gains have taken the price back to 34,500, and a break to a new high for the year could be in the offing. Additional upside from current levels would then target 34,940, 35,493 and then 35,860. This would continue to recoup the losses from the first months of 2022, and mark a more substantial recovery for the index. The recent double-bounce from the 50-day SMA has left the buyers firmly in charge, and a move back below the 50-day would be needed to negate the bullish outlook. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 struggles around the 50-day MA Dips towards 32,000 continue to bring out buyers, and for the moment the pullback has failed to make new lows. Sellers will want to see a daily close below 32,000, something they have been unable to achieve over the past week. This might then point to further declines that will see the price eat into the gains of May. A recovery above 33,000 would add weight to the view that a higher low has been created and that a fresh leg higher in the index’s uptrend has begun. This might then target 33,840 and 34,000. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 edges higher The index has been unable to make headway today, and the drop from trendline resistance is intact. For the moment this leaves the pullback from the April high in play, and could see the price head back to the July low around 7070. Below this the 200-day SMA comes into view as a target. A close above 7400 is needed to suggest that a more bullish view prevails, and that trendline resistance has been broken. Source: ProRealTime

Wall Street started the new trading week on a positive footing, as risk appetite rose ahead of several key earnings releases this week. Source: Bloomberg Indices United States Relative strength index Recession AUD/JPY KOSPI Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Tuesday 18 July 2023 Market Recap Wall Street started the new trading week on a positive footing, as risk appetite rose ahead of several key earnings releases this week, single-handedly uplifted by the technology (+1.3%) and financial (+1.0%) sectors. A surprise expansion in the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (1.1 versus -4.3%) overnight added to the list of positive surprises thus far in pushing back against recession concerns, further validated by comments of a no-recession from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The US economic surprise index has touched its highest level since March 2021. While the collapse of the Ukraine grain deal overnight may raise the risks of more persistent food prices by restricting global food supplies, sentiments seem to be taking it in stride for now, potentially as moderating pricing pressures across the globe has been more broad-based. The US retail sales will be in focus today, with resilience still the story as expectations look for a 0.5% month-on-month gain, up from the 0.3% in May. Likewise, industrial production is expected to show an uptick from May, heading to 1.1% from a year ago compared to the 0.2% in May. Perhaps one to watch will be Brent crude prices, which saw a negative reaction to China’s lacklustre GDP data yesterday on a potentially weaker oil demand outlook. That said, having broken above a near-term consolidation last week, prices are back to retest a previous resistance-turned-support at the US$78.40 level, where its key 100-day moving average (MA) stands as well. Any formation of a new higher low will be on watch to provide some conviction for a continuation of the near-term upward bias. Source: IG charts Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a mixed open, with Nikkei +0.81%, ASX -0.19% and KOSPI -0.31% at the time of writing. After being back online from its holiday break, the Nikkei is riding on the strength in Nasdaq for some gains to start the week, as buyers seek to overturn the double-top formation on the daily chart. A reclaim of its 20-day MA may provide greater conviction, but for now, the 32,700 level stands as immediate resistance to overcome. The light economic calendar in Asia will put the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes on the radar, with the minutes closely watched for clues on the potential for a rate hike at the upcoming meeting in two weeks. The RBA has previously showed their intent for some wait-and-see by keeping rates on hold, but rate expectations remain unconvinced for an extended pause by leaning slightly towards another 25 basis-point hike by October this year. Therefore, views from policymakers will be sought from the minutes to anchor down some expectations. For the AUD/JPY, a recent retest of its previous support-turned-resistance at the 95.34 level was marked with some resistance, with lower highs on Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing to some moderating upward momentum. Perhaps greater conviction for the bulls will depend on any move back above the key resistance of 95.34 level. On the downside, the 93.25 level could be on watch for near-term support. This level marked a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, in confluence with an upward trendline support and its Ichimoku cloud (daily). Source: IG charts On the watchlist: Natural gas prices hanging at neckline of minor head-and-shoulder formation Recovering natural gas supply has prompted prices to take a dip lately to its one-month low, with a close to 14% retracement from its recent June 2023 peak. For now, the daily chart seems to display a minor head-and-shoulder formation, as buyers are attempting to defend the neckline around the 2.530 level. Much still awaits with a series of spinning tops pointing to some near-term indecision. Any subsequent breakdown of the neckline could potentially pave the way to retest the 2023 bottom at the $2.100 level, given the price projection from the height of the pattern. The current $2.530 level also marked its 50-day MA while the RSI hovers slightly below the key 50 level. On the upside, the $2.784 will serve as immediate resistance to overcome. Source: IG charts Monday: DJIA +0.22%; S&P 500 +0.39%; Nasdaq +0.93%, DAX -0.23%, FTSE -0.38%

Fundamental analysis of the ASOS share price as its share price remains under pressure. Source: Bloomberg Price Revenue Sales Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization Inventory Economics Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 Is ASOS’ Driving Change agenda bearing fruit? Asos, faces obstacles in achieving its mid-term revenue target of £7 billion and a 4% Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) margin by 2033. The growth in online sales has been slower than anticipated, and the outcomes of its Driving Change strategy remain uncertain. It called for a renewed commercial model, stronger order economics and a lighter cost profile as well as a robust and flexible balance sheet. Nevertheless, there are encouraging signs of improved profitability and cash flow as the company concentrates on selling items at full price and effectively managing its inventory. However, a major hurdle lies in the company's ability to stimulate sales growth, which necessitates a shift in customer behaviour away from seeking discounts. Asos intends to expand its partnerships, with the aim of these collaborations accounting for 5% of Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) within the next 2-3 years and 25% in the long term. However, it is improbable that this distribution channel will significantly increase the EBIT margin to the targeted 8% due to the associated higher costs.  At 36 times earnings, the shares actually trade right around their five-year average, after peaking at 68 times earnings. But with so much uncertainty around its plans and the growth of competitors like Vinted, investors may deem this too high a multiple given the risks around the outlook.  ASOS analyst outlook Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘hold’ for ASOS – 4 strong buy, 2 buy, 18 hold and 4 sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 500 pence for the share, roughly 46% higher than the current price (as of 17 July 2023). Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 99% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 17 June 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 3% of clients expect the price to fall whereas trading activity over this week shows 75% and this month 56% of buys. ASOS – technical view The swift decline in the ASOS share price following its March-to-early May range trading phase has taken it to levels last traded in October of 2009. The company’s share price, which trades at -36% year-to-date, dropped by over 40% since May on disappointing half-year results and remains in a clearly defined downtrend. ASOS Monthly Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview Even though ASOS’s share price managed to so far stabilise above its June and current July lows at 323.00p to 322.90p, downside pressure may soon push it through those lows towards the July 2009 low at 306.8p and the psychological 300p mark. For any kind of potentially bullish reversal to gain traction, the mid-May and June highs as well as the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 424.90p to 475.8p would need to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis. ASOS Daily Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview Only then would the March-to-July downtrend line and December 2022 trough at 486.4p be back in sight.

Day Ahead 18/3/23: Goldman Sachs; BoA; Morgan Stanley earnings; RBA minutes Brace for a deluge of US bank earnings including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. The RBA minutes will be key, along with earnings from Ocado. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023

Hi @Abizee Welcome to the community! Looking forward to your posts you will share with the community. I hope you will enjoy learning from others in the community. All the best - MongiIG

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) Q2 2023 results highlighted a strong financial performance, with net income and revenue boosted by the inclusion of First Republic Bank. Source: Bloomberg Shares JPMorgan Chase Revenue Income Price Net income Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 JP Morgan Q2 earnings JP Morgan Chase (JPM) Q2 2023 results highlighted a strong financial performance with remarkable growth in net income, net revenue, and net interest income. Despite facing increased noninterest expenses and credit losses, the company's overall financial health remains robust. Salient features of the results are as follows: Net income for the period was $14.5 billion, marking an increase of 67% compared to the prior year’s comparative period. Excluding First Republic, net income still rose by a substantial 40%. Net revenue also witnessed a notable growth of 34%, reaching $42.4 billion. Excluding First Republic, the growth was still considerable at 21%. Net interest income (NII) experienced an increase of 44% to reach $21.9 billion, driven primarily by higher rates. Excluding First Republic, NII still grew by an impressive 38%. Noninterest revenue grew by 25%, amounting to $20.5 billion. Excluding First Republic, the growth was 6%. This increase was mainly driven by higher noninterest revenue from CIB Markets and the absence of certain prior-year losses in Payments. However, it was partially offset by higher net investment securities losses in Corporate. Noninterest expenses rose by 11% to $20.8 billion. Excluding First Republic, the increase was 8%. This growth was primarily due to higher compensation expenses, including front office hiring and wage inflation, as well as investments in technology, marketing, and increased legal expenses. JP Morgan Chase – technical view Source; IG The share price of JP Morgan remains in a long-term uptrend, highlighted by the price trading firmly above the 200-day simple moving average (200MA) (blue line). In the short term, a recent break above dotted trend line resistance level sees 156.90 as the initial upside resistance target from the move. The share price has however moved into overbought territory in the near term. Traders looking for new long positions into the company might hope to find entry into a pullback from overbought territory towards the 142.60 level.

How to trade Ocado’s first half results? Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Ocado Market sentiment Stock Price Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 What to watch out for regarding Ocado This year, faith in online grocery retailer Ocado (OCDO) has dwindled as shareholders become increasingly impatient with the company's ongoing losses. This is adding pressure on Ocado to become profitable. Income is predicted to increase by 9.8% compared to last year, reaching £1.385 billion. This increase includes a projected 3.3% boost in sales from their retail partnership with Marks & Spencer (MKS). However, if the forecasted increase in its adjusted Ebitda loss to £25.1 million is accurate - a significant rise from last year's £13.6 million loss - it's likely that shareholders' spirits will drop further. The company's ongoing investment in its automation technology and increased marketing budgets mean it will continue to use up its cash reserves, and its net debt is also expected to increase. Watch for any changes in Ocado's forecast, as the company plans to achieve a moderate annual revenue growth in the mid-single digits and a 'slightly positive Ebitda'. The company plans to recover these losses in the second half of the year. Ocado remains in play as a possible takeover target, which has seen its shares surge from the June lows. It remains the most-shorted stock in the FTSE 350, with 4.8% of its shares currently on loan. This could provide fuel for more upside should other bidders emerge. How to trade Ocado’s first half results? On Tuesday 18 July Ocado will publish its first half results which are expected to have an impact on the company’s share price which since June has rallied by up to 80% to its June intraday high at 631.80 pence. The current July high was made last week at 628.2p. Ocado Daily Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview Only if a rise and daily chart close above the June and current July highs at 628.2p to 631.80p were to ensue, would a bullish medium-term reversal be confirmed with the January peak at 808.80p representing a possible upside target. For now, the Ocado share price remains capped, however, and even though it is trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) – usually a long-term bullish sign for a stock – it needs to stay above its late June low at 495.00p for the recent uptrend to remain valid. Failure there would probably indicate the resumption of Ocado’s downtrend. Analysts recommendations and IG sentiment Fundamental analysts are torn between ‘hold’ and ‘buy’ with Refinitiv data showing 6 strong buys, 7 hold and 4 sells - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 568.22 pence for the share, roughly around the current price (as of 17/07/2023). Source: Refinitiv IG sentiment data shows that 84% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 17 July 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 16% of clients expect the price to fall whereas trading activity over the last week shows 66% and this month 50% of buys. Source: IG

Charting the Markets: 17 July European stocks open lower as China Q2 GDP disappoints. EUR/USD, GBP/USD rallies and drop in USD/JPY take a breather. And gold, WTI and copper prices all slip back. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

While underlying inflation remains a concern, headline consumer price inflation is expected to be brought down by softer petrol prices and lower energy bills, contributing to an overall decrease in inflation. Source: Bloomberg Inflation Price Interest rate Consumer price index Interest Interest rates Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 UK inflation expected to slow The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are expected to show that UK inflation is set to drop to its lowest level in over a year. In June, the rate of price growth is predicted to fall to 8.2%, down from 8.7% in May. This would be a reversal from previous expectations, as analysts had anticipated a decrease in the cost of living. However, it is worth noting that this figure is still higher than the Bank of England's (BoE) own forecast of 7.9% made in May. Despite the overall drop in inflation, there are indications that underlying price pressures remain persistent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is considered a more accurate indicator of price dynamics, is forecasted to remain steady at 7.1% in June. Services inflation, an area closely watched by the central bank for informing its interest rate decisions, is also expected to remain high at around 7%. More rate hikes needed The sustained high levels of underlying inflation are likely to raise concerns among members of the BoE's monetary policy committee. These levels suggest that price increases are being driven by local factors, which could put pressure on the central bank to continue raising interest rates. Analysts predict that the Bank may increase borrowing costs from the current level of 5% to a peak of approximately 6.25%. It is worth noting that while underlying inflation remains a concern, headline consumer price inflation is expected to be brought down by softer petrol prices and lower energy bills. These factors will contribute to a decrease in overall inflation. In other news, the ONS is set to release figures on Friday that are likely to show a slight increase of 0.1% in retail sales for the month of June, attributed to the warmer weather. However, over the past year, retail sales have dropped by 1.5%. Overall, these figures suggest a complex economic landscape for the UK, with a drop in overall inflation, but persistent underlying price pressures that may necessitate further interest rate hikes by the BoE.

As McDonald's prepares to dish out its Q2 earnings on July 27th, the fast-food giant rides high on a wave of global sales growth and digital success but struggles with inflationary pressures and supply chain issues. Source: Bloomberg Shares McDonald's Wall Street Revenue Supply chain Market Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 McDonald's Q2 earnings report date announced McDonald's is scheduled to report its second quarter (Q2) earnings after the market closes on Thursday, the 27th of July 2023. The backdrop: McDonald's global presence and Q1 results With operations spanning across more than 100 nations, McDonald's Corporation proudly hosts over 40,000 outlets as of the conclusion of 2022. More than half the company's revenues are earned from countries outside the US. In Q1 of 2023, McDonald's reported earnings and revenues that beat analysts' expectations. Sales increased by nearly 13% globally and across each segment for the quarter. Amidst a challenging environment and selective price rises, the appetite for McDonald's food and beverages remained robust. "Our strong first quarter results demonstrate that our Accelerating the Arches strategy is working, as comparable sales grew 12.6% through a healthy balance of strategic menu price increases and positive traffic growth," said Chris Kempczinski, McDonald's President, and Chief Executive Officer. The company reported the following key numbers in its Q1 2023 earnings results. *McDonald's earned $2.63 per share, excluding restructuring charges and other items. McDonald's earnings expectations McDonald’s is expected to benefit from increased US same-store sales and an increase in its share of the quick-service market in 2023, driven by the growth of digital orders and value offerings. The company's loyalty program, of approximately 25 million active members, has the potential to drive digital sales and increase customer frequency, thereby contributing to the growth of US comparable sales. Weaker consumer spending and McDonald’s response Providing a potential offset to growth is weaker consumer spending due to inflation and higher interest rates. If market conditions were to deteriorate, McDonald's could introduce discounting strategies, leveraging its size advantage to capture market share through value offerings. McDonald's expansion plans and supply chain issues The company is expected to expand its global franchise in 2023 with another 400 planned openings in the US and 1500 globally, including 900 in China. New restaurants are expected to contribute approximately 1.5% to 2023 sales growth. However, buying power typically enables McDonald's to source products more cheaply than its rivals, but not always. McDonald's in India's North and East divisions recently advised they would remove tomatoes from the menu due to the impact of heavy rainfall, seasonal issues on supply chains, transportation, and crop quality, which have seen the prices of tomatoes increase by five times above where they started the year. Key financials Wall Street's expectations for the upcoming results are as follows: Earnings per share: $2.76 adjusted vs. $2.63 in Q2 Revenue: $6.24 billion vs. $5.9 billion in Q2.. Source: TradingEconomics McDonald's share price analysis and projections McDonald's share price has increased by almost 11% in 2023, to be trading at fresh record highs - edging ever closer towards the psychological $300 mark. Longer-term uptrend support is viewed at $263.00. As viewed on the daily chart below, the push to new highs has been met with bearish divergence on the RSI indicator, which suggests the uptrend is potentially running out of steam and needing a pullback. McDonald's daily chart Source: TradingView If a pullback was to occur, there is good support near $280 coming from the June low and the high of November last year. Not far below that, support from the 200-day moving average comes in at $273.00. A pullback towards the $280/$273 support zone may provide a good entry point for a retest of the $300 level before a move towards the top of the trend channel at $345, viewed in the chart above. McDonald's weekly chart Source: TradingView Earnings report release and share price summary McDonald's is scheduled to report its second quarter (Q2) earnings after the market closes on Thursday, the 27th of July 2023. Ahead of the release, the share price is trading near record highs. Dips will likely to be well supported back towards $280/$275 and again at $263.00.

As the RBA holds interest rates steady, analysts eagerly anticipate the release of July's meeting minutes for clues on the future of rate hikes, and its potential impact on the AUD/USD currency pair and the ASX 200 index. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Interest rate Consumer price index Cash Inflation Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 The Minutes from the Reserve Banks meeting in July are scheduled to be released Tuesday, July 20th at 11.30 am. At its meeting in July, the RBA kept its cash on hold at 4.10%. The RBA's decision to keep rates on hold was largely expected by the rates market (80% priced). In contrast, about two-thirds of the forecasting community predicted a rate hike. The RBA's reasons for staying on hold echoed partly why it paused its rate hiking cycle in April - to assess the impact of a cumulative 400bp or rate hikes over the past fourteen months. In a July 4th media release, Governor Philip Lowe stated, "Interest rates have been increased by 4 percentage points since May last year", and today's pause "will provide some time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook." Rate hike projections fall after soft US CPI print The RBA retained its tightening bias and noted that the most critical factors behind the next rate move would be "developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market". After last week's sharp repricing in the rates market following the soft US CPI print, the probability of a 25bp rate hike from the RBA in August has fallen to just 27%, with a full rate hike not priced until November. RBA cash rate chart Source: RBA AUD/USD technical analysis The AUD/USD closed higher last week at .6837 (+2.04%), boosted by last week's lower-than-expected US CPI reading, which saw the US dollar and US yields collapse. The rally was also supported by prospects of further stimulus in China and the market-friendly announcement of Michele Bullock to head the RBA from September of this year. In last week's update on the AUD/USD here, we noted that if the AUD/USD could get above resistance at .6700c, it would likely see the rally extend towards resistance at .6800/20. Of course, the AUD/USD didn't only retest .6820c after the softer-than-expected US inflation numbers. It retested the mid-June .6899 high before running out of steam. The subsequent retracement leaves a potential double top in place at .6900c. This means the AUD/USD needs to see a sustained break above .6900c to open up a move to the next upside target - the psychologically important .7000c level. Beyond .7000c would come the year-to-date February high at .7157. Aware that until the AUD/USD mounts a successful attack on .6900c, allow for a retracement back towards the 200-day moving average at .6700c. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of July 17, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

Wall Street braces for potential third inflation miss; buoyant consumer sentiment data hint at Fed's rate cycle end and investors eye Q2 earnings amidst macroeconomic twists. Source: Bloomberg Indices Inflation Dow Jones Industrial Average Federal Reserve Technical analysis S&P 500 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 A cautious end to last week for US stock indices as stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment data dampened enthusiasm that the Fed was set to end its rate-hiking cycle at next week's FOMC meeting. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey increased to 72.6 in July (from 64.4) to its highest level since September 2021. Both current (77.5 from 69) and future expectations (69.4 from 61.5) increased, as did one-year inflation expectations, which ticked higher to 3.4% from 3.3% in June. The yield on the US 2yr rebounded by 14 bp to 4.77%, reversing a good chunk of last week's post-CPI slide. Q2 2023 earnings season in focus After being wrong-footed on inflation twice before, once in July and again in Q4, the market can ill afford to get it wrong for a third time. Since last week's downside inflation surprise, Fed Speakers have been quick to note that while inflation is heading in the right direction, it's still too early to exchange backslaps and high fives. Hence while the focus for stock indices in the coming weeks will be on Q2 2023 earnings season, the incoming macro data should not be overlooked. The most important of which this week is Retail Sales for June, released on Tuesday night. What is expected for US retail sales Headline Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.5% in June from 0.3% in April. The Retail Sales "control" group, which excludes food, autos, petrol and building materials, is expected to have increased by 0.3% MoM vs. 0.2% prior. S&P 500 technical analysis In last week's update, our central case was for a deeper pullback leaning against a potential double top at 4500, "aware that a sustained break above 4500 indicates the uptrend has resumed towards 4600/4630." The softer-than-expected CPI on Wednesday night sent the S&P 500 surging through resistance at 4500. While we aren't overly keen to chase last week's rally at cycle highs, neither are we eager to fight the momentum, despite the appearance of a loss of momentum candle in Friday's session. As such, we are neutral at current levels and prefer to buy a corrective pullback in the sessions ahead. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis A similar story for the last week, our central case was for a deeper pullback leaning against 15,475, aware "that a sustained break above 15,475 indicates the uptrend has resumed towards 16,000." The softer-than-expected CPI on Wednesday sent the Nasdaq surging through resistance at 15,475, and while we aren't overly keen to chase last week's rally at cycle highs, neither are we eager to fight the momentum, despite the appearance of a loss of momentum candle in Friday's session. This leaves us neutral at current levels with a bias to buy a corrective pullback should it occur. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical analysis As noted last week, the Dow Jones chart is littered with several highs this year between 34,250 and 34,600, each a failed attempt to break above the December 34,712 high. The latest of which was last week's 34,586 high. While another attempt remains possible, caution is warranted and should the Dow Jones see a sustained break below support at 33,600/50, it will likely see the decline extend towards the 200-day moving average, currently at 33,084. This level needs to hold to avoid a deeper pullback towards the May 32,586 low with scope to the banking crisis March 31,429 low. Dow Jones daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of July 17, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

China's GDP misses expectations In China, GDP expanded 6.3% in the second quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the first three months of the year, but the rate was below the forecast for growth of 7.3%. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 July 2023 European indices European indices started the week in the red, in the wake of the US equity market on Friday and Asia Pacific region (APAC) overnight. After recording its worst weekly performance in 2023, the USD Basket remained below 100 on Monday. China overview In China, the gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.3% in the second quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the first three months of the year, but the rate was below the forecast for growth of 7.3%. This was the quickest pace since the second quarter of 2021, but the COVID-19 restriction last year provided a very favourable base effect. Also released this morning, industrial production rose more than expected by 4.4% in June year-on-year (YoY), and retail sales narrowly missed consensus, rising 3.1% in June year-on-year (YoY). Equity market Elsewhere on the equity market, Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský is poised to win the battle for control of Casino after a group of investors led by billionaire Xavier Niel dropped out of the running to bail out the French food retailer. Microsoft Microsoft proposed $69 billion purchase of Activision Blizzard is back on, at least on the US side. On Friday, a US judge rejected final calls to block Microsoft from taking over Activision Blizzard, but in the UK, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is wanting time to consider the proposals from Microsoft to restructure its cloud gaming business. Back in April, the CMA said that combining the maker of Xbox consoles with the creator of hit games including Call of Duty and Diablo would give it "the ability to undermine new and innovative competitors." The CMA has now pushed back its July 18 deadline for blocking the deal until August 29 after receiving a "detailed and complex submission from Microsoft." Major banks After last Friday, which saw JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo , and Citigroup Inc all beat earnings and revenue estimates, and other financial giants are set to report this week. Tomorrow, Bank of America is forecast to post earnings of 84 cents per share on revenue of $25.02 billion. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs's earnings per share (EPS) was seen at $3.46 per share and revenue at $10.66 billion. Other than banks, we are expecting big names to report in the coming days. Tesla Starting on Wednesday with Tesla . The street expects earnings of 79 cents per share on revenue of $24.29 billion. In the same quarter a year ago, the electric car maker posted EPS of almost 76 cents and revenue of just under $17 billion. This illustrates very well the shift in strategy Elon Musk put in place at the beginning of the year. To be able to compete with cheaper Chinese EV makers, Musk said Tesla needed to prioritise sales over profits. Stocks Also expected on Wednesday: Netflix Halliburton, and IBM. Followed on Thursday by American Airlines and Johnson and Johnson, and on Friday by American Express and Schlumberger. All these stocks are session stocks on the IG platform. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 17 July Chris Beauchamp's insight This week is dominated by earnings season in the US, which continues with banks such as Goldman Sachs, as well as electric car manufacturer Tesla and streaming service Netflix. UK data such as consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales will be important given the recent surge in GBP/USD. Economic reports Weekly view Monday 3am – China GDP (Q2): growth to rebound to 7.3% YoY from 4.5%, and drop to 0.5% QoQ from 2.2%. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses 1.30pm – US Empire State mfg index (July): index to fall from 6.6 to 5. Markets to watch: USD crosses Tuesday 2.30am – RBA meeting minutes. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 1.30pm – US retail sales (June): expected to rise 0.5% MoM from 0.3%. Markets to watch: USD crosses 1.30pm – Canada CPI (June): prices to rise 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY, from 0.4% and 3.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses Wednesday 7am – UK CPI (June): YoY price growth to slow to 8.3% from 8.7%, and MoM figure to drop to 0.4% from 0.7%. Core CPI to rise 7% YoY from 7.1%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 14 July): stockpiles rose by 5.9 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Thursday 2.30am – Australia employment rate (June): rate to hold at 3.6%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 1.30pm- US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 July): Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US existing home sales (June): sales to rise 0.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses Friday 12.30am – Japan CPI (June): prices to rise 3.1% from 3.2% YoY, and core CPI to hold at 3.2%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses 7am – UK retail sales (June): sales to fall 0.2% MoM and 1.7% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses Company announcements Monday 17 July Tuesday 18 July Wednesday 19 July Thursday 20 July Friday 21 July Full-year earnings Half/ Quarterly earnings Ocado, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Tesla, Alcoa, Netflix, Halliburton, IBM American Airlines, Johnson & Johnson American Express, Schlumberger Trading update* Severn Trent easyJet Dividends FTSE 100: None FTSE 250: Ninety One, Bytes Technology, Cranswick, Pennon, Foresight Solar, Telecom Plus Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. * Please note these can change without notice * Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day

Asian markets were mixed overnight, after China's economic growth in the second quarter was slightly higher than anticipated, increasing by 0.8% compared to the first quarter. However, the year-to-year growth was less than expected, at 6.3%, indicating some possible adjustments to past data. Industrial production in June exceeded expectations, growing by 4.4% compared to the previous year. However, retail sales did not meet expectations, increasing only by 3.1%. The response in the financial markets was negative, with stocks in China declining and the yuan also dropping. The Australian dollar fell as experts predict that Beijing will allow the yuan to continue to depreciate as a form of indirect economic stimulus. The data highlights the need for increased government spending, but it doesn't seem like Beijing is prepared to fulfill this need at the moment. The central bank decided to keep one-year interest rates stable on Monday, and experts are waiting for a meeting of the Chinese government later this month for potential new measures. Earnings season is in full swing and Tesla will be the first of the major tech companies to report its results on Wednesday.

Equity rally loses some steam as U.S. earnings season kicks off in earnest Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as the Q2 earnings season kicks off with the likes of JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Blackrock. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 July 2023 FTSE 100 stabilises ahead of start of U.S. earnings season The FTSE 100’s three-consecutive day rise is losing upside momentum ahead of major U.S. earnings results out later today and as it approaches the June-to-July downtrend line at 7,459. If it and Thursday’s high at 7,459 were to be exceeded, the way would be open for the 9 June low, April-to-July downtrend line, 200- and 55-day moving averages at 7,546 to 7,595 to be reached. Minor support can be found at the 7,401 late June low. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 has seen five days of consecutive gains The DAX 40 has now risen on five consecutive days as U.S. inflation abates and the odds of further Fed rate hikes diminishes and that of a soft landing increases. The early July high at 16,211 is now within reach, a rise above which could lead to the May peak at 16,333 being reached next. Slips should find support along the breached June-to-July downtrend line at 16,036 below which the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) can be spotted at 15,979. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 trades in 16-month highs Following four consecutive days of rising prices taking the S&P 500 to a new 16-month high, the index may lose some upside momentum on profit taking ahead of the weekend and as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and global fund titan Blackrock kick off the Q2 earnings season on Friday. Above Thursday’s 4,517 high lies the 8 April 2022 peak at 4,525 and still further up the 4,530 late December 2021 low. Below Thursday’s low at 4,481 sits strong support between the mid- to late June highs at 4,458 to 4,447. Source: ProRealTime

Gold, WTI and wheat prices continue to move higher Commodity prices have recovered in recent days, with oil prices showing particular strength after being stuck in a range in recent months. Source:Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 July 2023 Gold pushes on above 50-day MA The price has surged to its highest level since mid-June. A close above the 50-day SMA marks a bullish development, and opens the way to $1984. Above this the price may move to target the psychologically-important $2000 level, and then the $2050 area. The rally back above $1930 has helped to solidify the bullish view. A drop back below $1930 would be needed to call this view into question. Source: ProRealTime WTI back at 200-day MA Another strong day of gains has resulted in the price returning to the 200-day SMA for the first time since early April. Buyers remain firmly in charge, and with the price now above $74 we may be seeing a change in trend. Further gains target $80 and then the April high at $83. A reversal back below $74 hands the initiative to the sellers once again. Source: ProRealTime Wheat price climbs higher Wheat prices have stabilised after Wednesday’s drop back below the 50-day SMA. A move back above 670 would help to bolster the view that a low is in place for now, though the overall downtrend is still active. Fresh losses will bring the May low around 590 into view. A close above 690 might suggest a move back to 725 and then 750 could be in the offing. Source: ProRealTime

Risk event for the week starting 17 July: UK inflation With US inflation showing signs of easing, will FX traders be waiting to hit the sell key on the pound with UK inflation on Wednesday? IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor caught up with Zain Vawda from Daily FX with a look at EUR/GBP. There’s the expectation of a retracement then another chance to short EUR/GBP. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 July 2023

Charting the Markets: 14 July Equity rally loses some steam as U.S. earnings season kicks off in earnest. Strong rallies in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and swift decline in USD/JPY are likely to pause. And Gold, WTI and wheat prices continue to move higher. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

DXY crashes through psychological 100 support This after weak US PPI data, which sent EUR/USD and GBP/USD to near 18-month highs. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

The Australian dollar dipped a fraction after the new RBA Governor was announced; Michele Bullock is seen as having an excellent central bank pedigree and RBA policy is likely to remain on course. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Shares Australian dollar AUD/USD Australia Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Friday 14 July 2023 The Australian dollar eased after Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced that Michele Bullock will take over as RBA Governor in September, replacing Mr Philip Lowe. The currency has since recovered, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 equity index steadied to higher ground after a positive lead from Wall Street. Ms Bullock has been the Deputy Governor of the bank since April 2022 and has been with the institution since 1985. She has a reputation as a leading economist in her own right. The appointment is mostly viewed as a steady transfer of leadership at a critical time for monetary policy at the RBA. Some monetary policy tourists in mainstream media have said that the bank has hiked rates unnecessarily aggressively. They might be disappointed with the new Governor if some of her recent comments reflect policy going forward. In a recent speech, she remarked that the unemployment rate may need to get to 4.5% in order to take the heat out of inflation. It is currently 3.6%. The implication for markets is that Australian monetary policy is likely to be managed in a similar fashion to the way that it has been for several decades, representing a steady hand at the wheel. Interest rate futures tilted to a less hawkish outlook earlier this week with the six-month part of the curve erasing 25-basis points of tightening. The markets now see only a slim chance of a hike by the RBA at its August meeting but a 25-basis point lift by year-end is anticipated. AUD/USD intraday chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD AUD/USD has been in a five-month trading range of 0.6459 – 0.6900 and it is testing the upper bound going into Friday’s trading session. Resistance could be at the previous peak of 0.6900 and 0.6920 ahead of possible resistance in the 0.7010 – 0.7030 area. On the downside, support might be at the breakpoints of 0.6818, 0.6806. 0.6803 and 0.6741 ahead of the prior low of 0.6595. The latest rally saw the price break cleanly above all period daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA). This might indicate that bullish could evolve. Those SMAs may provide support in the 0.6880 – 0.6920 area. It is rare for all of these SMAs to be clustered so close together and this might be hinting toward an emerging trend. AUD/USD chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Hi @Incarts Welcome to the community! Looking forward to the ideas and experience you will share with the community. All the best - MongiIG

Look Ahead to 14/7/23: JPMorgan; Wells Fargo; Citigroup; Eurozone and US trade data Wall Street banks earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are expected to report higher profits, despite a drag on dealmaking. Eurozone and US trade data come a day after data showed US consumer prices registered their smallest annual rise in more than two years in June. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023

Charting the Markets: 13 July Dow, Nikkei 225 and CAC40 rise after US CPI data. EUR/USD trades in 15-month highs, USD/JPY in six-week lows while EUR/GBP stabilises. And Brent crude oil remains bid while wheat and orange juice prices struggle. Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Dow, Nikkei 225 and CAC40 rise after US CPI data Indices worldwide were given a lift by US inflation data yesterday, which showed a slower pace of price growth, easing the pressure on the Fed to raise rates again. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023 Dow looks to break 34,500 The index rallied in the wake of the CPI reading, but was unable to hold on to gains above 34,500. This leaves the range of recent weeks intact, but with risk appetite once again building following the inflation print we could see a close above 34,500. This would mark a bullish development and open the way to 35,000 and the December highs. A reversal below 33,600 would be needed to put the sellers back in charge. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 stablises after losses The pullback continues, with the price finally dropping below the 50-day SMA and closing below it on Wednesday. From here the 31,460 level may be the next area of possible support. The overall uptrend is still arguably intact, though as yet a higher low has yet to form. A recovery above 32,500 would help to bolster the bullish view and potentially open the way to 34,000 again. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 continues to gain A fourth day of gains has seen the index move back above the 50-day and 100-day SMAs. A low has been formed and now the price needs to push on above 7400 to suggest that a more bullish view prevails. This would then bring 7500 and 7590 into view as upside targets. A reversal back below 7200 would be needed to indicate that the sellers are regaining control, which could then see the price test last week’s lows around 7080, and then the 200-day SMA. Source: ProRealTime