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ArvinIG

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  1. ArvinIG
    Bank of America’s maintains buy rating ahead of Q2 results, although long-term price trend remains down.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares Price Price–earnings ratio United States Bank of America BoA   When are the Bank of America results expected?
    Bank of America (BoA) is set to release second quarter (Q2) results for the fiscal year 2022 (FY22) on 18 July 2022.
    What is The Street’s expectations for the Q2 2022 results?
    The Street’s expectations for the upcoming results are as follows:
    Revenue: $22.8 billion (+5.67% year on year) Earnings per share (EPS): $0.78 (-2.8% year on year) How to trade BoA into the results

    Source: Refinitiv  
    Refinitive data shows a consensus of (28) analyst ratings at ‘buy’ for BoA. A mean of estimates suggest a long-term share price target of $44.26 for the company. The current share price trades at a 39% discount to this assumed long term fair value (as of 8 of July 2022).
    Client sentiment

    Source: IG  
    IG sentiment data shows that 98% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 8 July 2022) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 2% of these clients expect the price to fall.
    How does BoA compare to its peers in terms of valuation?

    Source: IG  
    The above table compares BoA against a peer average (which includes Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley) in terms of dividend yield and price to earnings (P/E) multiples.
    BoA currently trades at a slight premium to its sector peers in terms of a historical and forward P/E, although still at a significant discount to the S&P 500 benchmark index (at a P/E of 28 times).
    The group’s dividend offering has been slightly lower than its peers in aggregate.
    BoA – technical view

    Source: IG charts  
    The long-term price trend for the BoA share price remains down, evidenced by the price trading firmly below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) - blue line - and the red trend line on our chart. The share is however moving out of oversold territory in the very near term.
    The long-term trend takes precedence with support at 28.15 and 26.60 respective downside targets. Only if a rebound from oversold territory takes the price back above the major high at 37.45, would we reassess the merits of returning a long bias to trades on the company.
    Summary
    BoA is set to release Q2 2022 results on the 18 July 2022 Q2 2022 are expected to show a year on year increase in revenue and marginal decline in EPS Long-term broker consensus suggests the share to currently be a ‘buy’, with a longer-term price target of $44.36 IG clients with open positions on the share are predominantly long The long-term price trend remains down for BoA Only if a rebound from oversold territory can take the price back above a major high, we would reassess the merits of a long bias to trades on the company once again Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg
    12 July 2022
  2. ArvinIG
    Twitter has appointed a legal firm to take Elon Musk to court to either force him to complete on the $44 billion deal or pay the $1bln break fee after stating he wants to walk away from his proposal to buy Twitter (TWTR).

    Shares Twitter Elon Musk Social media Twitter, Inc. News   Early trade on the IG platform for the social media giant, Twitter, suggests it's going to open around about 7% below where it closed out Friday's trade. We've been hearing over the weekend the reaction to the news on Friday that Elon Musk wants to drop his bid for the social media company. Twitter, over the weekend, appointing the law firm Wachtell, Lipton,
    Rosen & Katz, which is a well-known firm on Wall Street, to look at taking issue with Elon Musk's positioning, either to force Musk to go through with the $44 billion deal or to come up with the $1 billion break fee. Let's take a look at the share price chart. We can see quite clearly here this drop of 7%, and in today's session
    We've just peaked, albeit briefly, below this line of support at $33.60 to take us down there, intraday, down to levels not seen since the 15th March. So quite clearly there is some downside to come when we look at the US trade later on today. Elon Musk said on Friday he planned to walk away from the deal, arguing that Twitter had failed to provide enough information to prove that the number of fake and spam accounts on its platform stands at less than 5%, as it has long estimated. Now,
    A legal case on this will force Twitter to come out into the open to declare exactly what's going on in terms of the fake and spam accounts that it has, and that could cause some embarrassment for the company, and I suspect we could see more downside to come, potentially, if this does turn into a dirty legal battle.
    Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London
    12 July 2022
  3. ArvinIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11th July 2022. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
     

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative.
    A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
     
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    N/A
        Special Div
       
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. ArvinIG
    US dollar’s Q2 2022 performance was the best since Q4 2016; Fed policy inflation gap hints USD may still have room to rise and DXY dollar index confirmed critical breakout above resistance.

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Commodities United States dollar Inflation Central bank Federal Reserve   Does the US dollar have more space to rally after such consistent gains?
    The US dollar has continued rallying against its major peers as of late. The DXY dollar Index, which does lean heavily on the euro, continues to set new highs this year. In fact, the second quarter saw DXY rally 6.5%, the most since the fourth quarter of 2016. Is there more room for the Greenback to rally in the days and weeks ahead? Perhaps so.
    Lately, a combination of weaker economic growth prospects in Europe and a turnaround in commodity prices have been aiding the Greenback’s ascent. The past few weeks have seen the markets price out how much the European Central Bank might be able to tighten by the end of this year amid the Ukraine War and dismal PMI prints. That has brought down German front-end government bond yields.
    This is as fading global growth prospects have been dragging down the commodity and sentiment-linked currencies amid near-unison monetary tightening from developed central banks. These include the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. CAD has been particularly hurt by the latest turnaround in crude oil prices, with WTI risk in the third quarter.
    What about the US dollar? By looking at inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations in one year, we can use the gap to see where the USD may go. This is displayed in the chart below. In one year, the US breakeven rate is showing inflation at 3.75%. Meanwhile, forward curves imply a Fed that is at 3.30%. That means that there is 45-basis points left before the central bank closes the gap on inflation.
    Since March, the gap has been narrowing, and the DXY Index has been rallying. It should be noted that this gap is at its lowest point yet this year, meaning that the Fed has almost caught up with inflation expectations. Once the central bank closes the gap, the question will then turn to if the central bank needs to cut rates to bring inflation down to its 2% average price target.
    DXY dollar index technical analysis
    The DXY dollar index recently confirmed a breakout above the June high of 105.788. That has opened the door to extending gains, exposing the 61.7% Fibonacci extension at 107.45. The dollar’s ascent lately has been feeling exponential, evidenced by the red-dashed curve in the chart below. Breaking under it could be a sign of weakness, placing the focus on the 50-day Simple Moving Average. Otherwise, further gains place the focus on the 78.6% and 100% extensions at 109.13 and 111.26 respectively.
    US dollar daily chart

    Source: TradingView   Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco
    07 July 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  5. ArvinIG
    The British pound attempts recovery after breaking June low; oil prices see no relief as global recession fears solidify and GBP/USD bulls need to recapture June low for reversal hopes.

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex United States dollar Pound sterling GBP/USD United States Australia   Thursday’s Asia-Pacific outlook
    Asia Pacific markets face a mixed open after stocks on Wall Street closed mostly higher, and the US dollar rose. The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes crossed the wires, showing that the FOMC remains committed to tackling inflation. The latest US economic data showed signs that inflation might indeed be easing, with the ISM’s PMI data for June showing that prices paid by firms have decreased, albeit only slightly.
    Across the pond, in the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s position in Her Majesty’s Government weakened further after another round of resignations, this time among more junior cabinet members. The British pound traded at its lowest level since March 2020 against the US dollar. For now, Mr. Johnson’s fate is uncertain as rules would have to be changed to call another no-confidence vote, and there has been no indication so far that resignation is forthcoming.
    The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar also fell victim to the stronger dollar, with NZD/USD and AUD/USD trimming nearly 0.5% overnight. A staggering fall in commodity prices has pained the two currencies in recent weeks. This morning, Australia’s Ai Group Services Index for June fell to 48.8 from 49.2 in the prior month. Iron ore prices fell around 1% during US trading hours.
    Oil prices fell again across the WTI and Brent benchmarks, with prices now below $100 per barrel as recession fears drag on demand expectations. Banks and analysts are starting to drop their year-end targets for the commodity after this week’s big drop, reversing lofty expectations for higher prices just a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, in Beijing, China, authorities are restricting access to many public venues to only those who are vaccinated.
    Notable Events for July 7:
    Japan – Foreign Bond Investment (02/JUL) Philippines – Unemployment Rate (MAY) Australia – Balance of Trade (MAY) GBP/USD technical forecast
    GBP/USD remains below its June swing low, but prices appear to be attempting to rebound, although modestly. The recent weakness following a break below Pennant support may continue if bulls can’t recapture that level. The RSI and MACD oscillators are negative, and technically, the cross looks primed for more weakness ahead.
    GBP/USD 8-hour chart

    Source: TradingView
    Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City
    07 July 2022 15:02 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  6. ArvinIG

    Dividend Adjustments 27th June 2022 - 4th July 2022

    By ArvinIG,


    Trading hour changes
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 27th June 2022. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
     

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative.
    A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
     
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    N/A
        Special Div
       
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. ArvinIG
    Following the RBA’s cash rate increase for the third straight month, we look at the ASX200, AUD/USD and Brent crude oil.

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Indices Commodities Petroleum Inflation Australian dollar   This week the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased its cash rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 1.35%, back to its highest level since May 2019. Moreover, RBA signalled that more interest rate hikes are on the way as inflation is expected to increase further throughout the year's second half.

    Meanwhile, the US equity markets reopened after Independence Day to enjoy a modest gain as an early sign of easing inflation pressure ignited by the China-US tariff talk and plunging energy prices.

    Today we look at three markets:
    ASX
    Last week the ASX closed the book for the 21/22 financial year with the worst monthly decline since March 2020. Overall, the ASX dropped 12% during the year's first six months.
    Every year has its challenges and the past 12 months have been especially rough as we continue to fight Covid for the third year. The strong headwind of inflation has caught most central banks off guard and when combined with the war in Ukraine that commenced in late February, energy prices have increased to a level that hasn't been seen for decades.
    Moving ahead, it's almost certain that most of the headwinds from the first half of the year will stay to generate more volatilities and unknowns will unfold.
    The ASX concluded the post-RBA session with a 0.25% gain on Tuesday. However, the candlestick still failed to break through the 20-day moving average, suggesting the short-term momentum is yet to revert. The cross so far briefly shot up to 6584 with support from the mid-term trend line and slips may find support near the May trough at 6540. On the other hand, should the price manage to stand above the 20-day MA in the next couple of days, the price target is looking at 6640.
    Daily chart

    Source: IG AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar rallied before the RBA meeting on Tuesday but then lost all the gains against the greenback after the announcement. The Reserve Bank of Australia tightened monetary policy for the third straight month, even though the central bank sounds optimistic to control the decade-high inflation. Furthermore, commodities continue to be crushed as concerns deepen about the slowing economies and under this momentum, the Australian dollar is poised to continue suffering the downturn pressure.
    The Australian dollar has now pulled back to its two-year low level and current support can be found at $0.6789, which, if broken, will bring the next support at 0.6716 into view. On the flip side, any rebound attempt will face the challenge from the 20-day moving average, around 0.6890.
    Daily chart

    Source: IG Brent crude
    Oil plummeted by nearly 10% this week as concerns heightened over the global recession curtailing demand and as a result, oil prices have plunged below $100 a barrel for the first time since early May.

    While Saudi Arabia lifted the August price for its flagship crude grade to Asia by $2.80 per barrel, the price of Brent and WTI crude fell sharply as the renewed recession fears outpaced the previous supply concern.

    From a technical viewpoint, the price for Brent crude has pulled back to its level in May and a clear breakout from the trend line suggests the downturn spiral will be at play. Current support sits at $106, while the next support level at $103 is in prospect.
    Daily chart

    Source: IG   Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne
    06 July 2022 Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.
  8. ArvinIG

    Three ASX stocks to watch in July

    By ArvinIG,


    Analyst article
    Woodside Energy concluded June with a 7.3% gain while the ASX 200 was down by more than 12%; CBA shares tumbled to a 13-month low and BrainChip dropped 30% in June.

    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Shares ASX Interest rate Woodside Petroleum   Australia's share market crossed the finish line after a grim June and quarter with negative numbers, marking it the worst month since March 2020. During the past six months, the ASX 200 was down by more than 12% and although there is no reset button, the beleaguered equity market does bring renewed hope.
    Market participants expect the central banks to change their hawkish stance once the economy has shown convincing signs of cooling down. As for the week ahead, the RBA will again lead the decision-making to lift the interest rate for the third straight month.
    Today we look at three stocks:
    Woodside Energy
    For the ASX 200, the energy sector is unlikely to conclude June with a gain amid fluctuating oil prices, the falling value of coal, and the spreading of the energy crisis. That beinf said, the major players in the ASX energy sector delivered mixed performances led by Woodside Energy Group with a 7.3% gain while Santos moved down by 8.6%.
    Woodside Energy is now the biggest energy share on the ASX after the company completed its merger with BHP’s petroleum business in early June. The goodwill following the merger has helped Woodside to shelter from the headwinds and deliver a beat to the market.
    Major support for the price can be found from the month-long ascending trend line which sees the price stabilise at around $31. Resistance should come from the 50 and 100-day moving average between $31.5 to $32. However, once broken through this level, investors can expect upside movement toward the 20-day moving average.
    Daily chart

    Source: IG Commonwealth Bank of Australia
    The rapid changing interest rate has placed the banks on high alert and the central stage. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia's share price fell by more than 13% in June and last week announced to lift its fixed home loan by a jaw-dropping 1.4% in one go.
    What's more, the interest rate is expected to keep edging up.

    On the other hand, the property market is cooling and a higher interest rate will help the bank's margin and profit. However, the accelerated slowdown in the home loan market could lead to a greater number of loan losses and a shrink in the market size.

    The price of the CBA is currently trading at its lowest level in 13 months. The high from last February and March can be considered as key support for now at around $89 and the steep 20-day moving average is set to limit the high for the rebounds. While the RSI shows a pull back from the oversold territory, massive selling pressure is expected from the level of $93.
    Daily chart

    Source: IG BrainChip
    BrainChip is a developer company for AI computer chips and the recent star company had a turbulent month as its share price ended the month 30% lower amid the broad ASX200 market which was down 9%.
    The steep decline of BrainChip’s share price can be attributed to the external market sentiment rather than the company’s performance and this was particularly the case in the risk-off market where BrainChip sits. However, the risk ahead can’t be ignored with the global chip producer being under the whammy recently after the semiconductor maker warned that demand is falling and sales will be lower in the current quarter. As such, global chip leaders like Nvidia and AMD are being hit particularly hard as the concern about entering the recession cycle increases.

    BrainChip has seen its share price increase substantially from a value of $0.04 in 2020 to 9.49% in early 2022. As shown from the daily chart, the price is moving along the descending trend line since early June and the price has found its support at 0.783 at the moment. A bounce from this level brings the price to the trend line resistance at 0.855 which is also where the 20-day moving average sits. Moving forward, should the price manage to succeed in a breakout, buyers can anticipate a short-term rebound to the level of $1. On the flip side, the breach of current support may erase all gains for 2022.
    Daily chart

    Source: IG
    Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne
    05 July 2022 Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.
  9. ArvinIG
    Dear IG Community,

    Please find below the changes of trading hours for Independence Day holiday (US)

    All times are UK Time and Central Time

    Monday 4th July
    Brent Crude and Gas Oil futures close early at 6.30pm (12.30pm CT). US index futures close early at 6pm (12pm CT). We’ll make an out-of-hours price on Wall Street, US 500, US Russell 2000, FANG Index and US Tech 100 from 6pm (12pm CT) until futures reopen at 11pm (5pm CT). US equities and soft commodities are closed. US interest rates close early at 6pm (12pm CT). US energies and metals close early at 7.30pm (1.30pm CT). The VIX closes early at 4.30pm (10.30am CT).  
    Thank you - Arvin
  10. ArvinIG
    The S&P 500 has plunged as much as 25% from its January’s peak, with a recent relief rally once again proving to be short-lived.

    Source: Bloomberg   Indices S&P 500 Valuation Risk Inflation Market liquidity   Brief overview
    The S&P 500 has plunged as much as 25% from its January’s peak, with a recent relief rally once again proving to be short-lived. As tightening of liquidity conditions continue, markets appear to have shifted from pricing for inflation risks to pricing for growth risks. This may be reflected with the continued fall in US breakeven inflation (hence, nominal Treasury yields), while commodities prices are also coming under some downward pressure. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down close to 12% over the past month.
    What’s ahead for the S&P 500 in July?
    Volatility is set to persist into the month of July, as we look towards the several upcoming key risk events.
    1) Second-quarter earnings season
    The second-quarter earnings season will seek to provide a real test for companies. The positive correlation between S&P 500’s performance and its 12-month earnings per share (EPS) suggests that markets are already pricing for a decline in corporate earnings over the coming quarters. The still-elevated oil prices during the period measured will pose as a challenge to firms’ margins, while tighter liquidity conditions translate to a slower-growth environment. This may suggest that the risks of further re-rating in valuation and downgrades remains present at the moment. For quarter two (Q2) 2022, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 stands at 4.3%, marking the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since quarter four (Q4) 2020.
     

    Source: Nasdaq  
    2) July’s FOMC meeting
    The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will take place on 26 – 27 July 2022, with the upcoming meeting largely guided to be a selection between a 50 or a 75 basis-point (bp) hike. The Fed Fund futures suggests that market expectations are currently leaning towards the hawkish end of a 75 bp increase. Much may depend on how the Fed brings across its forward guidance because if the central bank is able to assure markets that the path of rate hikes will tone down from September onwards, markets may potentially look beyond the aggressive 75 bp hike enacted in July and seek for a relief rally.
    Where is S&P 500’s valuation at?
    While the 25% sell-off in the S&P 500 year-till-date has driven a downward revision in valuation, its price-to-sales ratio still hovers above its peak during the dot-com bubble period. Therefore, it may be difficult to say that overall valuation is ‘cheap’ after the heavy sell-off. The upcoming earnings season will provide a test for corporate earnings, where companies may face a daunting hurdle in having to defend its valuation amid higher cost pressures and slower demand. Amid the current risk-off environment, companies may have to outperform on all fronts such as delivering stable margins, earnings resilience and positive forward guidance in order to lift market confidence in taking on more risks for the longer term.
     

    Source: Nasdaq  
    What’s next for the S&P 500?
    The S&P 500 has been trading within a series of lower highs and lower lows since the start of the year, with the formation of a new lower high this week reinforcing the ongoing downward trend. A head-and-shoulder formation seems to be in place as well and the completion of the pattern points to the 3,500 level as a point where some dip buying sentiments may surface. The 3,500 level is measured by extending the distance between the head and the neckline onto the point of breakdown of its neckline. This level also marks a confluence of support, where a key 50% Fibonacci retracement rests in place, if drawn from its Covid-19 bottom to the stimulus-induced record peak at the start of the year.
     

    Source: IG charts
    Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore
     01 July 2022
  11. ArvinIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4th July 2022. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.

    The Independence day holiday is observed in the US on 4th July – we therefore anticipate posting the below (*) on Friday 1st

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative.
    A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
     
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    N/A
        Special Div
         
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. ArvinIG
    Is the Walgreens share price likely to continue its slide as it halts the sale of Boots?

    Source: Bloomberg   Detrimental financial conditions made Walgreens pull the plug on its Boots sale
    Citing tougher financial conditions following the upheaval in credit markets, Walgreens Boots Alliance, the owner of the UK pharmacy and beauty group Boots, announced on Tuesday that it has abandoned its sale of Britain’s biggest chemist as recent bids didn’t meet its expectations.
    The US pharmacy company said on Tuesday that while there had been “significant interest” in the near 175-year-old business, it “has decided that it is in the best interests of shareholders to keep focusing on the further growth and profitability of the two businesses” and that an “unexpected and dramatic change” in the financial markets meant no offers had been received that reflected the potential value of Boots.
    Boots and its related No.7 beauty brand account for around five per cent of its parent’s $132 billion in annual sales. American pharmaceutical company, Walgreens has been looking to sell its UK Boots and No.7 beauty brand since the end of 2021, with a formal review of its options beginning in January of this year.
    However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, followed by rapidly rising interest rates in both the US and the UK, have made it very difficult for new issuers to operate within Europe’s high-yield credit market since financing any highly leveraged bids has become very costly.
    Walgreens had apparently been looking for as much as £10bn when it initially put Boots up for sale, as it sought to focus on its US businesses but after several failed bids, some apparently coming close to their valuation earlier this year, it finally pulled the plug on the Boots sale as the financial environment for bids worsened. “As a result of market instability severely impacting financing availability, no third party has been able to make an offer that adequately reflects the high potential value of Boots and No.7 Beauty Company”, the company stated.
    Walgreens insisted, however, that the abandoned sale of Boots should not reflect badly on the performance of the main UK chemist or the No.7 brand, saying they were continuing to grow and perform strongly.
    The US Boots owner also assured investors that it would continue to invest in the company, which has “exceeded expectations despite challenging conditions”.
    Despite halting the Boots sale at present, Walgreens’ chief executive, Rosalind Brewer, signalled that the company will “stay open to all opportunities to maximise shareholder value.”

    Source: ProRealTime Where to next for the Walgreens Boots Alliance share price?
    With the Walgreens share price down around 20% year-to-date and evolving in a clearly defined downtrend channel since the beginning of the year, and having this week topped out near its November 2021 low at $42.68 on the news that Boots is no longer up for sale, further downside looks to be in store.
    While the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) continues to cap the share price on a daily chart closing basis, as it has been doing since mid-February, the current June low at $39.15 remains in focus.
    If slid through, the late December 2020 low at $36.79 will be next in line, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-to-2021 advance at $36.15.

    Source: ProRealTime  
    Since one can clearly make out a series of lower highs and lower lows – the definition of a downtrend – the technical picture for Walgreens remains negative for now.
    For the downtrend to be broken and reversed at least two daily chart higher highs and higher lows would need to be seen and take the Walgreens share price to above not only this week’s high but also above the May and current June highs at $43.95 to $44.75. Only then could one envisage the 200-day SMA at $46.22 being back in sight.
    Below it the Walgreens stock is considered to be in bear market territory. Unless such a bullish reversal is seen in the days and weeks to come, further slides in the Walgreens share price are likely to ensue.
    Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London
    29 June 2022
  13. ArvinIG
    Risk-off sentiment has returned, and this has resulted in gains for the dollar at the expense of the euro, sterling and yen.
     

    Forex United States dollar Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling EUR/USD   EUR/USD
    EUR/USD returned to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) this week ($1.0588), having rallied modestly from the lows of June, along with most risk assets. However, it looks like the hiatus from risk-off sentiment has come to an end once again, and a fresh move lower is in store.
    Further declines from here will bring $1.0384 and then $1.035 into view, as the pair heads back to retest recent lows seen over the past two months.
    A revival back above the 50-day SMA and then above $1.06 would be needed to suggest a resumption of the bounce, which then targets $1.0637 and higher.

    Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD struggles in early trading
    For GBP/USD as well it looks like a new drop is at hand, as the dollar strengthens again and the concerns about inflation and growth begin to build.
    The downtrend here looks to be in the process of reasserting itself, which suggests a resumption of the move back to $1.20 and lower. Below this there is not much evidence of support until the March 2020 lows of $1.15.
    Buyers will need to step in soon and push the price back above $1.2366 if they are to avoid this scenario, although a bounce back above $1.263 would be needed if it is to push on to create a higher high.

    Source: ProRealTime USD/JPY holds near highs
    USD/JPY has returned to the highs of last week, with the uptrend here just as firmly in place as the downtrends are for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
    Now that the 2002 highs have been breached, the next step would be ¥146.75, the highs from 1998. Horizontal and trendline support come into view around ¥135.00, which may help support the price in the end of any drop in coming days.
    Below this the price would head towards the 50-day SMA at ¥131.00.

    Source: ProRealTime
      Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
    29 June 2022
  14. ArvinIG
    Bitcoin falls alongside US equity markets as market sentiment deteriorates; retail sales data out of Japan and Australia eyed to assess APAC growth and BTC/USD nears critical test of support as bears advance for third day.

    Source: Bloomberg     Wednesday’s Asia-Pacific outlook
    Asia-Pacific traders face a risk-off open after a volatile session of losses in New York sent US equity indexes lower. Technology stocks underperformed the broader market, with the high-beta Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) closing 3.09% lower, bringing the total loss for the index close to 8% on the month as July approaches. Chinese markets, however, are set to close out the month with gains after the economic powerhouse eased Covid-19 restrictions. Bitcoin prices fell amid the risk aversion. The cryptocurrency may trade higher if Asian equity markets buck the overnight weakness.
    Beijing slashed the period that international travelers need to spend in quarantine on Tuesday, the latest sign that policymakers are willing to pull back from the ‘Zero-Covid’ policy. Travelers from outside China are now only required to spend one week in quarantine. The same pent-up demand effect seen in Western economies, where restrictions were eased largely early this year and late last year, may be seen in China over the coming months, assuming restrictions continue to recede.
    Meanwhile, the Group of Seven (G7) is trying to nail down the details of a reported price cap on Russian oil. The move would limit the prices that outside entities can pay for Russia’s oil. The American Petroleum Institute’s report stated that US crude oil inventory fell by 3.8 million barrels for the week ending June 24, beating the 100k draw that analysts were expecting. The EIA’s report is expected to drop tonight after a two-week blackout due to technical issues on the agency’s servers.
    Today, Japan’s retail sales report for May is set to cross the wires. Analysts expect to see a 4.0% year-over-year rise, according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be a solid improvement from April’s 2.9% y/y increase, and a surprise above expectations may help drive some JPY strength. Australia’s preliminary retail sales report for May will follow the Japanese data. A 0.4% increase is expected to cross the wires, down from the prior 0.9% increase. Aussie dollar strength may follow if the report beats expectations.
    Notable events for June 29:
    Japan – Consumer Confidence (June) Singapore – Export Prices (May) South Korea – Business Confidence (June) BTC/USD technical forecast
    Bitcoin prices fell for a third day, with prices nearing the critical 20,000 level. A break below the psychological support level would likely see bears press the attack, potentially sending prices to test the June swing low set earlier this month. Alternatively, a rebound would aim to reverse early-week losses, with the falling 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) also a potential target.
    BTC/USD daily chart

    Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

    Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City
    29 June 2022
  15. ArvinIG
    Nike shares are struggling to find momentum in all-sessions trading after finishing the session lower on Monday after fourth quarter earnings were released.

      Shares Nike, Inc. Revenue Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Technical analysis Inflation   Nike Q4 earnings
    We've seen earnings out from NIKE Inc (All Sessions) last night, and despite posting better than expected numbers, the share was still down in extended hours after the release as the group has forecasted first quarter (Q1) revenue below estimates.
    Earnings came in at $0.19 per share on revenues of $12.23 billion. Analysts had expected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.81 and revenue of $12.07 billion.
    Nike: technical analysis
    Let's bring up the chart now to see how Nike is trading.
    Now, remember, this is an all-session share on the IG platform, which means you can trade it from 9 a.m. UK time prior to the US open later on this afternoon.
    And as you can see, the reaction yesterday selling off after the announcement there, coming down to end the session down about 4.8% on the day. So far today, we have opened pretty much unchanged, not much move, seeing a little bit of momentum to the upside, trying to recover some of that move, especially on those better-than-expected earnings.
    But if we're looking at the messaging around this, we saw chief financial officer, Matthew Friend, say that Nike is taking a cautious approach to greater China given the uncertainty around additional Covid disruptions and expect first quarter revenue to be flat to slightly up, below estimates of a 5.1% increase.
    So that's the outline there from the messaging from those earnings. As we know, markets have been focusing a lot lately on forward guidance, what's going to come, especially now that we've seen inflation and costs gearing up. A lot of focus now on what are they going to deliver in the upcoming few months.
    We've seen the message, still expecting to see a little bit of a gain there for Nike. But below expectations that we've seen so far, the share remains within this descending channel, you can see.
    But if we zoom out a little bit, just to get the greater picture here, you can see we're still very much within that higher trend compared to where we started prior to the Covid rally. This is the beginning of 2020 here, the beginning of the summer. You can see we're now nearing that area, an area that's potentially more sustainable. Now, undone most of that Covid rally coming to rest around that area here. The 100 area at the moment, it's likely that we see a bit more price instability along this area and also finding a bit more support from where we've seen those previous lows, helping the price, trying to push higher and break this descending channel.
    Daniela Sabin Hathorn | Presenter and Analyst, London
    28 June 2022
  16. ArvinIG
    Glencore’s share price is the FTSE 100’s star performer of 2022, up 17% to 453p year-to-date.

    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Shares Glencore FTSE 100 Stock Bribery   Glencore (LON: GLEN) shares haven’t just outperformed in 2022. They’re also up 46% over the past 12 months, and 58% over the past five years.
    The FTSE 100 stock’s stellar performance is all the more remarkable given the wider market rout, with the FTSE 100 down 3.4% in 2022, and multiple international index peers firmly trading within a bear market.
    Glencore share price: bribery guilt
    There is one fly in the ointment, however.
    One of Glencore’s British subsidiaries has pleaded guilty in a UK court to corruption charges brought by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO). The SFO had accused the FTSE 100 company of bribing officials to ‘perform their functions improperly, or reward them for so doing, by unduly favouring Glencore Energy UK Limited.’
    More specifically, it argued that ‘Glencore, via its employees and agents, paid bribes of over $28m for preferential access to oil, including increased cargoes, valuable grades of oil and preferable dates of delivery’ in multiple African countries between 2011 and 2016.
    Glencore had already set aside $1.5 billion to cover the impact of expected fines. Last month, it agreed to pay a $1.1 billion settlement in the US over a decade-long scheme to bribe officials in seven countries, and a $40 million settlement in Brazil to state-run Petrobras and the Brazilian authorities.
    And this may not be the end of the story for the FTSE 100 stock. While Chairman Kalidas Madhavpeddi argues it ‘is not the company it was when the unacceptable practices behind this misconduct occurred,’ Glencore is also facing charges in the Netherlands and Switzerland.
    Spotlight on Corruption’s Helen Taylor thinks the charges were ‘hugely significant,’ but argues the SFO could have gone much further in its investigations given the global nature of Glencore’s malpractice.
    The legal researcher also thinks it ‘critical’ that when the courts decide the fine amount in November, it ‘reflects the staggering scale and seriousness of this corporate criminality otherwise companies like Glencore will simply write this off as the cost of doing business.’
    Backing calls for senior executives to be investigated and prosecuted, as reported in detail by the Daily Telegraph, the scandal is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

    Source: Bloomberg FTSE 100 stock: where next for Glencore shares?
    While the fines are a PR disaster, context is important. Glencore made a record £16 billion profit in 2021 and plans to spend at least £3 billion in share buybacks and dividends in 2022.
    Moreover, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent its marketing business into overdrive. Glencore expects the sector to generate earnings of $3.2 billion in just six months, far exceeding the $2.2 billion to $3.2 billion guidance it had previously issued for the entire year. Further, the sector only generated $3.7 billion in 2021.
    Glencore predicts a return to ‘more normal market conditions’ in H2, the FTSE 100 company argues that its ‘marketing segment’s financial performance has continued to be supported by periods of heightened to extreme levels of market volatility, supply disruption and tight physical market conditions, particularly relating to global energy markets.’
    A key component of Glencore’s current run is its coal mining division. CEO Gary Nagle has pledged planned to run down its coal mines over the next 30 years and aims to achieve net-zero by 2050.
    And activist investor Bluebell Capital Partners has previously pressured Glencore to spin off coal, arguing that it acts as a depressant on the FTSE 100 company’s market value.
    But operating 26 mines across the globe, coal generated a quarter of Glencore’s revenue in 2021. And while it’s currently dealing with higher costs for diesel, explosives, electricity, and logistics, Glencore recently highlighted the rising price of coal as a key revenue driver as nations grapple with energy security after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    This argument hasn’t escaped the notice of investing giant Morgan Stanley, which recently upped its Glencore price target to a record 740p. The bank specifically cited its spot free cash flow yield of 29% and the potential for higher coal prices to drive capital returns.
    And with Glencore finally pencilling a line under long-standing corruption charges, the FTSE 100 stock could now soar further in July.

    Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London
    28 June 2022
    Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2021
  17. ArvinIG

    Naked Wines' shares slump on result

    By ArvinIG,


    Analyst article
    The wine producer said it faces inflationary pressures this year

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares Recession Wine Inflation Inventory Balance sheet   Shares in Naked Wines collapsed by 40% on Thursday after its full-year results disappointed. The wine company’s gloomy outlook statement spooked investors after chief executive Nick Devlin said that it would only achieve break-even this year due to inflationary pressures.

    The share price slump came despite the company returning to profit, posting pre-tax profits of £2.9 million following last year’s losses of £10.7 million. Total sales rose 5% at constant currency rates to £350 million.

    Naked Wines’ proposition works by connecting customers – or ‘angels’ as it dubs them – with independent wine makers. Consumers then gain access to wines directly from the producers at a discounted price.
    Naked Wine faces “inflationary challenges”
    The company was one of the pandemic’s winners as many new customers signed up when pubs and bars were closed during lockdown. However, with a possible recession looming and the cost of living crisis, there could be difficult times ahead.

    “In the past year we moderated investment responsibly as we navigated inflationary challenges,” group chief executive Nick Devlin told investors. “In that context, I’m pleased with the substantial growth in sales to repeat members supported by sales retention above our expectations for the year at 80% and our ability to deliver profitability."

    However, while he said that the company is “well positioned to continue to grow amidst a changing consumer environment,” he added that management would not “pursue growth at any cost” and that it intended to "trade the business at or around breakeven this year.”

    Devlin added that he believed this was the “responsible balance to strike in FY23, mindful of the levels of macro-economic uncertainty, but also of the opportunities we see ahead and the potential for disruptive models like ours to gain traction in tough times as consumers revaluate their purchasing choices.”
    Balance sheet concerns
    The company’s net cash position more than halved to £40 million from £85 million in the previous period. Management also said it took on a $60 million credit facility at the year-end, which included covenants. However, inventory assets rose to £142 million from £76 million in the previous year.

    While total group sales are anticipated at £345 million to £375 million for the full-year 2023, Naked Wines says it expects to spend up to £40 million on acquiring new customers. What’s more, the company will also be incurring administration costs of £45 million to £48 million, as well as £5 million in marketing and £4 million in share-based compensation fees.

    Profit from repeat customers is anticipated at £83 million to £93 million, however.

    In a note to clients, Wayne Brown, an analyst at broker Liberum, voiced concerns about the “poor quality of customers” the company had picked up in the past financial year and its balance sheet.

    “There is a risk heading into a downturn that weak demand and potential cancellations combine to force the company to discount stock more in an attempt to turn the inventory into cash,” he wrote.

    The shares are down 79% in the past year to 156.5p and 82% on their pandemic highs of 874p.

    While the shares may look oversold at these levels, wine is a discretionary spend customers may decide they need to cut back on in the face of a recession.

    Piper Terrett | Financial writer, London
    28 June 2022

    Trade over 16,000 international shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, June 2020).
  18. ArvinIG
    The Australian dollar eyes further gains versus the US dollar; Chinese industrial profits data in focus to kick off APAC trading and AUD/USD may face resistance from the 23.6% Fib and 20-day SMA.

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex United States dollar Australian dollar AUD/USD China Japanese yen   Monday’s Asia-Pacific outlook
    Chinese industrial profits data is set to cross the wires this morning, which could help to set the tone for Asia-Pacific trading. The Australian dollar is a prime proxy to gauge the market’s response to those numbers. AUD/USD saw a moderate bounce last week after a multi-week losing streak alongside a broader pullback in risk assets.
    Industrial profits grew by 3.5% on a year-over-year basis in April, which was seen as a dull figure weighed down by a wave of Covid-19 infections that caused lockdowns across major Chinese economic hubs. The situation has improved since then, although cities like Beijing and Shanghai continue to see localized Covid measures. Still, this morning's data should reflect a growing recovery, which could help to revive some optimism across the APAC region. AUD/USD may rise if the y/y figure exceeds that of the prior month.
    In Japan, the final revisions of April’s Coincident and Leading economic index figures will drop. The Japanese yen fell against the US dollar last week but sellers appear to backed off, with USD/JPY gaining only 0.16%. Still, the currency pair hit its highest level since September 1998 before trimming strength. The technical posture has weakened recently, but USD bulls may yet attempt an attack.
    Industrial metals like copper and aluminum could give clues to how traders are assessing the short-term macroeconomic outlook. Copper prices fell to the lowest since February 2021 last week. Steel demand has eased in recent months. Renewed fears about an economic recession following the Fed’s latest interest rate hike have weighed heavily on demand for industrial metals. A firm print on China’s industrial profits data may help to inspire some confidence across the metals space.
    Notable Events for June 27:
    Indonesia – M2 Money Supply (May) Philippines – Business Confidence (Q2) Taiwan – Consumer Confidence (June) Hong Kong – Balance of Trade (May)
    AUD/USD technical forecast
    A trendline from 2021 helped to underpin prices during last week’s action. A move higher faces potential resistance from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the falling 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The MACD and RSI oscillators are both improving, and crosses above their respective midpoints may provide technical boosts for the Australian dollar in the days ahead.
    AUD/USD daily chart

    Source: TradingView   Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City
    27 June 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  19. ArvinIG

    Is the FTSE 100 index on borrowed time?

    By ArvinIG,


    Analyst article
    The FTSE 100 is benefitting from rocketing commodities, oil, and interest rates that may ultimately become its downfall.

    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Shares Commodities FTSE 100 Recession Interest   The FTSE 100 index has remained remarkably resilient this year, down 4% year-to-date. While it spent Friday morning surfing dangerously close to the symbolic 7,000-point watermark, it ended last week at a relatively healthy 7,209 points.
    For perspective, the S&P 500 is down 18.5%, while the NASDAQ Composite has fallen by 26.7%. Most other international indices aren’t faring much better.
    However, competitors like the NASDAQ are stuffed with tech stocks which underwent a stellar run during the covid-19 pandemic era of loose monetary policy. This has left it much more rope to correct as the fiscal landscape changes.
    And it’s worth noting that a NASDAQ investor who bought into the index just before the pandemic struck would even now still be significantly better off than one who stuck to the FTSE 100.
    FTSE 100: banks, oil, and mining
    However, the FTSE 100’s sector composition has made it a strong choice so far this year.
    The index’s big four banks — HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, and NatWest — are set to be prime beneficiaries of rising interest rates. The Bank of England has already increased the base rate five times in the last six months to 1.25%; market pricing has them rising again to at least 2.25% by the end of the year. Capital Economics thinks it could even increase to 3% in 2023.
    Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 oil majors — BP and Shell — are making so much money that BP CEO Bernard Looney has likened his outfit to a ‘cash machine.’ And both companies foresee increased profitability despite windfall taxes on North Sea profits. With Brent Crude still above $100 a barrel, the oil benchmark has remained elevated for months, even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    Then there are the miners benefitting from sky-high commodity prices — Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Glencore, and Fresnillo — which, despite several serious PR hiccups, are only expected to generate ever more revenue as the mining super-cycle continues.
    The FTSE 100 also boasts strong stocks with numerous defensive qualities, including pharmaceutical giants AstraZeneca, GSK, and HIKMA. History shows that the demand for new vaccines and drugs remains constant regardless of the economic state of the world.
    The same is true of tobacco stocks British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands, as well as food sector companies like Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Unilever. Likewise, utilities stocks including National Grid, SSE, and Centrica, and telecom stocks like BT and Vodafone are also highly defensive; consumers have little choice but to utilize electricity and gas in the 21st century.
    In fact, only a handful of stocks within the FTSE 100 are outright struggling.
    Most are travel-dependent stocks like IAG or Rolls-Royce, the former of which is besieged by a PR nightmare, labour crunch and potential strike action. However, given the lengthy airport queues and optimistic forward-looking corporate statements, demand for travel remains high, while the current problems are likely to disappear over the medium term.
    The major FTSE 100 housing stocks — Rightmove, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, and Barratt Developments — are also suffering, with a market slowdown widely expected as interest rates rise, given that the average English home is now worth a record £299,249.
    Another notable faller is the tech-heavy Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, down 43% year-to-date. However, it’s worth noting that the trust is still up compared to its pre-pandemic value, and has outperformed the wider FTSE 100 over a five-year timescale.
    But overall, the FTSE 100 is in strong shape compared to its peers. But as storm clouds appear on the economic horizon, one powerful risk factor could bring down the UK’s premier index.

    Source: Bloomberg FTSE 100: UK recession, global recession
    CPI inflation is at a decades-high 9.1% and expected to exceed 11% by October. For perspective, an employee that has not acquired a raise this year will lose over a month of real terms buying power over the next 12.
    And with essentials including fuel, energy, and food rising at a near-unprecedented speed, consumers are also being squeezed by rising interest rates that are making mortgages, credit cards, and other loans more expensive.
    Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, thinks ‘the economy is starting to look like it is running on empty’ as companies report a ‘near-stalling of demand.’ Outgoing CBI President Lord Bilimoria argues the UK is ‘definitely’ heading for recession.
    Worryingly, the ONS reports that 44% of adults were buying less food in May, up from 18% in January, and the core reason behind last month’s 0.5% drop in retail sales. British Retail Consortium CEO Helen Dickinson notes that ‘households reined in spending as the cost-of-living crunch continued to squeeze consumer demand.’
    Meanwhile, data company GfK’s monthly survey of UK citizens found that consumer confidence is at the lowest it’s ever been since the survey began in 1974. For a frame of reference, this includes events such as the 1979 oil crisis, 1990s housing market crash, and 2008 credit crunch.
    But the upcoming recession isn’t just a UK problem. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing thinks ‘we have a 50% likelihood of a recession globally.’ Citigroup analysts concur, warning it is an ‘increasingly palpable risk’ as ‘history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth, and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50%.’
    This is the catch-22 of sky-high oil and commodity prices, rising interest rates, and more expensive consumer staples. Short-term, it benefits the aforementioned FTSE 100 giants, especially as many of them operate on a global scale. But longer-term, it creates economic distress.
    Of course, if the upcoming recession were to be confined solely to the UK, the FTSE 100 could well continue to outperform its international peers through 2022.
    But with inflation rocketing and consumer confidence collapsing, there is a very real danger of demand destruction across almost every developed country across the globe.
    It’s worth noting that in 2021, Morgan Stanley predicted demand destruction for oil would occur when the commodity hit $80 per barrel. While the bank recently admitted it got this forecast wrong, it’s possible that what it got wrong wasn’t the prediction, but the timeframe.
    And with inflation predicted to 11% in October, interest rates to strike potentially 3% next year, and consumer confidence at all-time lows, the FTSE 100 may be on borrowed time.
    Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London
    27 June 2022
  20. ArvinIG
    Australian dollar falls against US dollar as markets shift to risk-off; the 2022 BRICS Summit set to kick off today in virtual format and AUD/USD looks set for further weakness above key trendline support.

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Australian dollar United States dollar AUD/USD Inflation Japanese yen   Friday’s Asia-Pacific outlook
    Asia-Pacific markets are set to open higher after a rosy overnight session on Wall Street. The New York trading session saw risk assets climb, with all three major US equity indexes posting gains. The high-beta Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) outperformed, closing 1.47% higher. Bitcoin prices rose more than 3%, in line with the positive market sentiment. Traders were unswayed by negative economic data, with S&P Global PMI data for the US in June missing estimates, although remaining in expansion territory.
    Activity in the foreign exchange market, however, did not align with what equity markets were communicating. The US dollar, which typically strengthens amid risk-off moves, gained against its risk-sensitive peers, like the Australian dollar. Greenback strength appeared after Treasury sellers vanished mid-day, pushing yields modestly higher.
    The Japanese yen may see some volatility today on the release of Japan’s inflation data for May. Analysts expect to see core inflation—a measure that removes volatile food and energy prices—cross the wires at 2.1%, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Japanese yen is near its weakest level against the dollar since 2002. A higher-than-expected inflation print may help underpin JPY strength, but the Bank of Japan has remained defiant against tightening policy despite the monumental collapse in its currency.
    Elsewhere, industrial and precious metal prices fell. The growing threat of a global recession sent copper prices over 5% lower in New York. Chinese-sensitive iron ore prices managed to gain on comments from President Xi. The Chinese leader reaffirmed his commitment to support economic growth at the 2022 BRICS summit. The Australian dollar remains weak despite the rebound in iron ore, but traders may take notice today and put a bid on the Australian currency.
    Notable events for June 24:
    Singapore – Industrial Production (May) Taiwan – M2 Money Supply (May) China – Current Account Final (Q1) Australia – RBA Governor Lowe Speech
    AUD/USD technical forecast
    AUD/USD found support from a trendline formed from the October 2021 swing high. That trendline may continue to underpin prices, but a break lower would likely lead to a test of the May swing low. The psychologically important 0.7000 level remains a visible target for bulls, should prices rebound. Meanwhile, the MACD and RSI oscillators remain negative.
    AUD/USD daily chart

    Source: TradingView

    Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City
    24 June 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  21. ArvinIG
    Crude oil prices are on pace for the worst month since November. Global growth expectations for 2022 are falling as OPEC+ continues restoring supply. Is more pain ahead for WTI?

    Source: Bloomberg   Commodities Petroleum Price of oil OPEC WTI Inflation   WTI on course for worst month since November as fundamental drivers decay
    After six months of consecutive gains, WTI crude oil is on pace to weaken by over nine percent this month. That would be the worst performance since November 2021 if it holds. In fact, on Wednesday the commodity closed at its lowest since early May. Is there more scope for energy prices to weaken ahead? Or will this translate into another bounce in the coming weeks?
    Broadly speaking, WTI has been on an impressive rally that has its beginnings going back to when prices found a bottom in 2020. Then, a global pandemic destroyed travel demand, plunging oil prices to lows not seen in decades. Since then, recovery from a period of lockdowns, plentiful government stimulus and geopolitical tensions in Europe have worked in unison to bolster prices. Things are seemingly turning.
    Some of the highest global inflation in decades has resulted in central banks around the world tightening monetary policy. To bring down rising prices, they must slow down growth by raising interest rates and ending government asset purchases. Unsurprisingly, real 2022 global growth estimates have been falling. On the chart below, growth is now seen at 3.2% y/y versus 4.5% expected back in late 2021.
    This is a clear downside risk to oil amid rising recession concerns. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum and Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) have been gradually restoring supply – see chart below. By August, the last of the production cuts made back in 2020 is expected to be rolled back. Barring an escalation of tensions between Russia and the West, it seems that the tide may be turning for crude oil. With that in mind, what are key technical levels traders should watch for?
    Crude oil fundamental drivers – global growth, OPEC output

    Source: TradingView Crude oil technical analysis
    Crude oil prices have broken under a key rising trendline from December – red parallel lines in the chart below. A confirmatory secondary close below could open the door to reversing more of the 100% rise from the end of last year through late February. Below, the 92.95 – 95.11 support zone will be key to watch as the 200-day Simple Moving Average nears. Clearing the latter opens the door to retesting the 85.38 inflection point. Otherwise, a turn back above the trendline could hint at uptrend resumption.
    Daily chart

    Source: TradingView

    Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco
    23 June 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  22. ArvinIG
    BP shares have fallen sharply in recent days as the FTSE 100 oil major recalibrates its investments.

    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Shares Commodities BP Petroleum Price   BP's (LON: BP) share price has fallen by 9% in just five days. But while this steep fall appears worrying, BP shares are also up 19% over the past year. By comparison, the FTSE 100 has remained essentially flat.
    While this volatility is partially down to the sliding value of Brent Crude, and fears of an upcoming global recession, investors are also reassessing the FTSE 100 oil major’s prospects.
    BP share price: oil changes
    In November, CEO Bernard Looney famously proclaimed BP a ‘cash machine,’ at a time when Brent Crude was trading at $74. Accordingly, 2021 full-year profits struck an eight-year high of $12.8 billion, while Q1 2022 underlying profits more than doubled to $6.2 billion as Brent hit multi-year highs.
    Of course, oil prices are unlikely to remain this high forever. Longview Economics thinks that ‘if oil prices remain at current levels, there will be a significant supply response over the coming 12-18 months which will generate a global supply surplus /rising oil inventories in 2023.’
    But with bumper profits, BP plans to spend 60% of the excess on share buybacks while average energy bills are expected to close on £3,000 by autumn.
    Accordingly, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced an additional 25% ‘energy profits levy’ on North Sea gas and oil operators, until ‘normal’ prices return or until the end of 2025. However, he included a ‘super-deduction’ from this additional tax, worth 91p on every £1 of investments in the North Sea.
    Linda Cook, CEO of Harbour Energy, the biggest oil and gas producer in the North Sea, has criticised the windfall tax as ‘seriously flawed,’ as it is ‘disproportionately large compared with the projected impact on major oil companies such as BP and Shell.’
    But Looney has also been critical, arguing that it ‘is not for a one-off tax – it’s a multi-year proposal. Naturally, we will now need to look at the impact of both the new levy and the tax relief on our North Sea investment plans.’
    BP was planning to invest £18 billion into the UK over the next eight years, despite not having opened an exploratory well since 2018.

    Source: Bloomberg The FTSE 100 operator has also taken a $24.4 billion hit from exiting its 19.75% stake in Rosneft. A third of BP’s oil came from Russia last year, as well as a significant chunk of its income.
    BP has also quit the Canadian oil sands, after selling its 50% stake in the Sunrise project to Cenovus Energy in a $1 billion deal, which will also see BP receive acreage off the east coast of Canada to explore and develop new oil and gas fields.
    BP explained the deal ‘will shift its focus to future potential offshore growth,’ while Starlee Sykes, senior vice-president of the Gulf of Mexico and Canada, argues it ‘will position BP Canada for strong future growth.’
    Exploratory drilling will last until 2026, with strong demand likely from both Canada and the USA as Russian oil remains off the market.
    FTSE 100 stock: renewable plans
    While rapidly changing its oil-producing mix, BP has a long-term ambition to hit net zero by 2050. Accordingly, it’s agreed to buy a 40.5% stake in the 6,500 square kilometre Asian Renewable Energy Hub in Pilbara, Western Australia, for an undisclosed sum.
    The project, which will cost more than $30 billion to develop, counts Intercontinental Energy, CWP Global and Macquarie as partners. BP argues it has ‘the potential to be one of the largest renewables and green hydrogen hubs in the world,’ hoping to develop 26GW of solar and wind power and 1.6 million tonnes of green hydrogen a year.
    Executive vice-president of gas and low-carbon energy Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath contends that ‘AREH can be a cornerstone project for us in helping our local and global customers and partners in meeting their net zero and energy commitments.’
    And encouragingly, the VP expects it to represent ‘a material contribution’ to BP’s plans to corner 10% of the global hydrogen market. The FTSE 100 company projects that low-carbon hydrogen will make up 15% of the global energy mix by 2050, and will account for 40% of BP’s capital expenditure by 2030.
    The oil major will become the development’s operator from 1 July, subject to Australian regulatory approval.
    The FTSE 100 supermajor has also appointed veteran Felipe Arbelaez to lead its new hydrogen unit, which plans to take on 100 more employees through 2022.
    Arbelaez thinks ‘the desire to progress the hydrogen market is really accelerating across all nations and particularly in Europe, Asia and the United States,’ augmented by the wish for ‘security of supply of energy, particularly in the European context on the back of the Ukrainian conflict.’
    This leaves BP’s share price dip as a potential FTSE 100 buying opportunity.

    Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London
    23 June 2022
  23. ArvinIG
    Australian dollar falls against US dollar as markets shift to risk-off; the 2022 BRICS Summit set to kick off today in virtual format and AUD/USD looks set for further weakness above key trendline support.

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex United States dollar Australian dollar BRICS United States Australia   Thursday’s Asia-Pacific outlook
    Asia-Pacific markets may fall today after traders went risk-off overnight during the New York trading session. Recessionary fears were brought back into the fold after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clarified that rate hikes may cause a recession. Mr. Powell, speaking before Congress, said, “it’s certainly a possibility.” US stock indexes responded by trimming early gains and finishing the day with losses. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell against the US dollar. This morning, Australia’s global manufacturing PMI flash index rose to 55.8 for June, up from 55.7 in May, according to S&P Global. The services sector component fell to 52.6 from 53.2.
    It was the euro, and not the dollar, that benefited from the risk-off flows in the currency market. The Greenback’s strength was stifled by strong bond-buying across the short-end of the Treasury curve, with yields broadly falling across maturities as well. The USD-sensitive 5-year Treasury rate fell to its lowest level since June 10. Bond investors’ appetite extended throughout bond markets in the APAC region, with government bond yields falling in Australia and New Zealand.

    Energy markets were another victim of the increased confidence in an impending recession. WTI crude prices fell nearly 4% to the lowest levels traded at since early May. The Fed’s signaling over the possibility of a recession benefits their policy in this regard, as lower oil prices are likely to help cool inflationary pressures. President Joe Biden called on Congress to suspend the federal gasoline tax through September. The US President is under growing political pressure with gasoline prices at or near record highs across much of the US.
    Elsewhere, the BRICS Summit is set to kick off in its virtual format. The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa will discuss economic and political cooperation, among other matters. It will also be the first time Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly joins other leaders since the invasion of Ukraine. There may also be some talk about further shifting away from the US dollar system.
    Notable events for June 22:
    Japan – Foreign Bond Investment (18/June) Japan – Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (June) Thailand – Balance of Trade (May) Philippines – Interest Rate Decision Indonesia – Interest Rate Decision
    AUD/USD technical forecast
    AUD/USD reversed its gains from earlier this week after prices fell close to trendline support before trimming some losses. That trendline may continue to underpin prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD oscillators remain weak, offering little sign of a turnaround in momentum in the short term. To the upside, the psychologically imposing 0.7000 level may provide resistance if prices turn higher.
    AUD/USD daily chart

    Source: TradingView

    Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City
    23 June 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  24. ArvinIG
    EUR/USD has recovered from a test of the lows; yen depreciation sees EUR/JPY eyeing new highs and momentum might be the key but can EUR/USD break higher?

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Shares EUR/USD Market sentiment Euro EUR/JPY   EUR/USD technical analysis
    EUR/USD appears to be content to trade sideways for now after failing to break lower last week, hitting a low of 1.0359.
    That move challenged last month’s low of 1.0349, which was above the January 2017 low of 1.0340. These levels may provide a support zone in the 1.0340 – 1.0360 area.
    That move has also set-up a potential Double Bottom that might signal a reversal.
    The price has moved above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) but remains below the 21-, 34-, 55-, and 100-day SMAs, which could suggest bearish momentum is pausing.
    A move above the nearby 34-SMA would further support this. All period SMAs have a negative gradient that is working against bullish momentum for now. A move back below the 10-day SMA might suggest a resumption of bearish momentum.
    There is a cluster of resistance above the price with the 21-, 34- and 55-day SMAs among a previous high, a break point and a descending trend line. These all sit between 1.0580 and 1.0660. A break above 1.0660 could be significant.

    Source: TradingView EUR/JPY technical analysis
    Bullish momentum appears to have resumed for EUR/JPY after breaking the top side of a Pennant formation last month.
    At that time, the price re-asserted bullish momentum by moving above the 10-, 21-, 55- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA).
    Since then, it has gone on to make an 8-year high at 144.25 earlier this month and this could be a level of resistance.
    The 21-, 55- and 100-day SMAs have positive gradients but the 10-day SMA has recently rolled over to negative. An uptick to the 10-day SMA could support further bullish momentum.
    The subsequent pullback tried to break below an ascending trend line but was unable to follow through. Support may remain at the trend line, currently dissecting at a break point of 140.00.
    Further down, support could be at the break points of 139.00, 138.32 and 136.79.

    Source: TradingView

    Daniel McCarthy | Strategist
    22 June 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  25. ArvinIG
    Source: Bloomberg   Forex United States dollar Currency Bank of Japan Pound sterling Federal Reserve   Global financial markets moved diligently to price in the latest action from the Federal Reserve last week when Mr. Powell’s FOMC raised the US benchmark rate by 75-basis-points. The jumbo rate hike tempered inflation expectations, and perhaps returned some credibility to the institution. However, the impact on equity markets was undeniably bearish. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell over 4% to its lowest level since November 2020.
    The US dollar benefited from the safe-haven flows despite an immediate reaction to the downside. The DXY index was up around 0.50% going into the weekend. However, there are technical signs across major crosses, such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD, that show the dollar’s ascent is perhaps at or near a critical juncture. The Bank of England remained in a relatively dovish stance, hiking its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The dollar advanced against the pound, but trimmed some of those gains in the second halve of the week.
    Oil prices plummeted on Friday as traders baked in growing fears over a Fed-induced recession. That comes amid the summer driving season, which typically sees higher demand for fuels persist into the fall months. Natural gas prices found relief in the United States after an LNG terminal suffered a catastrophic failure, likely to take months to repair. European prices, however, skyrocketed. The development is likely to keep prices in Europe elevated, further complicating Europe’s inflation outlook.
    Speaking of energy prices, Canada is set to report inflation data for May on Wednesday. The country’s consumer price index (CPI) is expected to cross the wires at 7.5% on a year-over-year basis. That would be up from April’s 6.8% y/y increase. A hotter-than-expected print would likely inspire already-aggressive Bank of Canada rate hike bets, potentially bolster the CAD.
    Japan is also slated to release inflation data for May. The Bank of Japan held firm in its dovish stance last week against a market that appeared to be trying to force the BoJ’s policy stance. That didn’t happen. The mantra of 'don’t fight the Fed' seems to be just as appropriate for the Bank of Japan. The yen fell versus the dollar last week, although the pace of losses started to cool. A hotter-than-expected CPI print out of Japan may actually see USD/JPY fall.

    Source: TradingView

    Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City
    20 June 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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