Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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No real movement yesterday, attempted to go lower but was bought back up, attempted to break higher on the US close but sold back down overnight. Fed rate decision today 7pm and presser 7:30 so traders likely to be cautious til then
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Overnight Indices down Bonds up, USD flat Gold up. H4 Chart US 30y Treasury note up slightly this week after drifting down for the 2 weeks prior.
UK and EU CPI data but it's all about the Fed today, 7pm, presser at 7:30..
Check out Dailyfx's summary on how interest rate cuts affect the different markets from the link below.
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Dow looking to break out up over the pivot on the US close having been restricted all day is very bullish.
H1 charts;
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20 minutes ago, Kodiak said:
"Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut."
come down because of oil but now Saudi saying oil back on line expectations will reverse back up, 22 hours and counting ta-da.
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32 minutes ago, DSchenk said:
This means Ross (or anyone using CFDs) can enter a trade at let's say 2.01 and sell later at 2.10. Makes 9 points profit.
The spreads for SB and CFd are the same, we saw this on a vid of Ross's @nit2wynit posted on this thread a week or so ago. CFDs are banned in the US, have been since the late 70's so Ross is share dealing through a DMA type platform that he pays $280 a day for which includes high speed connectivity, exchange fees and low commission per trade (1 or 2 $).
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08:38 (SA) Saudi Arabian oil output will return to normal levels sooner than initially believed, according to sources with knowledge of Saudi oil operations - press - Saudi source: Saudi Arabia is near to restoring 70% of 5.7M bpd oil output loss - CTNews.pro
H1 chart;
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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Playing ****'s advocate here - at least Ocado produces something of worth. (Plant, machinery, goods, provides jobs and a valuable service i.e. food delivery etc.)
Comparing some bloke starting up day trading with some savings to a small business doesn't really cut it.
And yes, I 100% agree that it is virtually impossible to make a living from day trading. I would LIKE to believe that it's possible to make more than a 2% return by trading (this is what you'd get if you put it into the most generous savings account available today), but so far even that looks dubious.
"Ocado makes first full-year profit in its 15-year history" (2015) 🙄
And yes, as the study points out, it's virtually impossible to make a living day trading in the first year with no training other than reading 'TA for Dummies' over the weekend.
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14 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
The disparity between both charts is enough to see anyway isn't it? What am I actually trading?
the Tradingview chart is the same 5min chart but none of the charts are the market, just a approximate graphical representation of the market, a gap might be represented as a blank space or a solid candle.
There are differences as to all platform construction, some are build with an emphasis on dealing while others the emphasis is on charting. The IG web based platform is the former (and used by both retail and professional traders alike) while PRT and Tradingview are more tuned to charting.
Either way you are trading the market.
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22 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
Wow! Both 5M......
but what is it actually telling you though, besides that 3 different platforms are filling in gaps differently on a illiquid stock.
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29 minutes ago, DSchenk said:
Motley Fool released this article yesterday: https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/09/16/tempted-by-day-trading-heres-why-you-shouldnt-bother/
Tempted by day trading? Here’s why you shouldn’t bother
In short:
From a sample of almost 20,000 people, they found that the proportion of successful day traders fell as the number of days they traded increased. In other words, people became worse at trading the more often they did it.
The researchers then focused on the 1,551 individuals who continued to trade in the equities futures market for more than 300 days. Based on the data, only a minute proportion (0.4%) earned more than a typical bank teller in Brazil in a day ($54) with the best-performing individual taking home $310. A staggering 97% of this sub-group lost money.
Is spread betting for fools?
I read this research paper last week and it really doesn't say anything new. New traders lose, and it didn't offer anything constructive though who would want to trade Brazilian equity futures anyway
Not too many business startups make a profit in their first year, take Ocado for instance 🙂
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24 minutes ago, DSchenk said:
What is correct? What isn't? Or are these small differences normal and down to the various calculating methods? Confusing.
These below are IG's default as they appear on the MT4 platform whereas the web based platform places the pivot at 7336 instead of 7335 and match your top set so there is a very slight difference in the way the 3 platforms show the data, I would use your top set because IG's charts and default indys are used by 10s of thousands traders and really that's what it comes down to, that they be recognised by the majority.
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Good 25 min video overview going through the elements of a trading system/strategy from Tradeciety.
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Latest from Dailyfx IG client sentiment, note the big indices are at their usual heavy short by the retail crowd as is always the case as markets close in on their highs.
Comms, fx, crypto, indices;
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Saudi press conference set for today 18:00 UK time, reports that Aramco are signalling to customers of delays to loading, also a report yesterday that Japan contractually has first dibs on storage stocks.
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Dax has followed Dow under the pivot, Dow currently taking a look at S1 around yesterday's low, will need to wait and see if we get rejection here and a retest of the pivot or a push through onto S2, either way Dax is likely to follow.
H1 charts;
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Dow settling in just under the ATH, some speculation around that with the jump in oil the Fed may not be so keen to lower rates tomorrow and Putin offers to send weapons to Saudi as they don't have enough apparently.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/16/fed-decision-expectations-rising-that-rate-cut-might-not-happen.html
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Markets settling back down, Indices down Bonds up, USD flat Oil pulling back a bit, Gold flat Crypto mixed. Chart NY Sugar spiking up.
10am Ger and EU econ sentiment data.
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2 hours ago, tehka said:
I wonder are we going into a repeat of July 2019 where Dow goes range bound between 27000 and 27300?
History repeats itself?
Likely to be caution until the Fed mtg Wednesday, everyone (the big guys) are already all in but have their finger poised over the sell button til confirmed just in case..
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9 minutes ago, Kodiak said:
FED really need to deliver some rocket fuel to make this rally continue
Powell will do what's expected then completely skew up the presser and Q and A and send the market tumbling, Trump will start hyperventilating and then explode and then Iran won't know what hit them. I can see it all so clearly 😅
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4 hours ago, Mercury said:
I'm not really sure what the motivation for the question is here: are you looking for a justification (is there hope?) to continue or a reason not to? I can't offer an answer to the second part of your question, that is personal to each individual, but the answer to the first part yes it is true that unsuccessful traders wind up giving back their profits and then some, which is one key reason they are unsuccessful. The crux of the matter though, and this is why your motivation is important here, is why the answer is yes and what, if anything, you can do about it.
There are many reasons why traders lose, all traders not just retail. The literature is literally littered (a little alteration to lighten the mood...) with stories of famous traders that had significant growing pains in the early days. It rather seem to me that the only sustainable way to learn how to be a trader is to lose; to learn the hard way, and to learn how to lose. There isn't a short cut to this, although research and book learning is important to start with. And demo only gets you so far because real trading come with an insane level of psychological factors (just look at the tenor of some of the posts on this forum...) So while it is vital to have a system or methodology worked out (and ignore the trolls on this because confidence is also important) it is also vital to learn how to lose, because losses are a crucial factor in learning to be successful and in catching a trade with minimised exposure, and even the very best take regular losses accordingly. The difference between the successful and those destined not to be are many-fold but a few key one that pertain to the first part of your question are as follows:
- Not reconsigning when a trend has come to an end and knowing when to get out to maximise profits.
- Related to the above, holding on to your bias because it has been successful in the past - markets move in waves and sometime they reverse trend and if you don't recognise this when it happens you wind up trading against the trend and giving up all the profits from the previous wave and maybe more as you get more desperate to claw back.
- Not scratching losers quickly when the market turns against your hypothesis AND being reluctant to crystalise a loss at all, thereby holding on in the vain hope than the market will turn back in your favour (it rarely does...). A lot of retail traders talk about needing just 51% winners but in fact you need far few than than that if you let your winners run and cut losses quickly - lose small, win big. Failed traders wind up doing the exact reverse such that sometime they actually do win more than the lose but wind up as net losers financially.
- Thinking that trading is logical. It isn't, it is emotional (greed and fear dominate the markets - otherwise known as sentiment). That said you need to be in control of your own emotions or you will get sucked into the greed/fear whip saw and get cut to shreds. If you are not composed you will make bad calls. Related to this is blaming everything and everyone else for your bad calls. The markets don't care about you, they don't even know you exist. Big bad professional traders are not out to get retail traders, they are too busy competing with each other. The system isn't rigged as such, although manipulation does occur but it does in every market, not just financial markets. Retail traders, especially those losing, tend to be too preoccupied with these phantom issues instead of focusing on their own method, psychology and trading.
- Revenge trading - when you develop a mindset that a particular market "owes" you - a need to win back on the same market that you took losses on rather than switching to a better set up elsewhere. After a big loss my approach is to stay out of the market and analyse my loss to ensure I know why it happened and learn to avoid making the same mistakes again. Alas I often wind up relearning old lessons, which is another factor.
- Creating a "need" to make regular profits, which in turn puts too much pressure on the trader to find traders every day - the top guys do not trade everyday, they wait for the set up to be ripe. Additionally this pressure mounts up with each loss because now you need to make back your losses as well as make your regular profit, which makes the trading more reckless and results in more losses. One reason some successful traders start offering various services such as education; mentoring and tips is to get a regular income so their trading can be on a capital appreciation footing, which is what it needs to be.
- Believing your own BS - when a profitable trade comes off you start to get cocky and feel invulnerable so you take more speculative trades and don't stick rigourlessly to your method - this is about greed
- Over trading, especially after a good win.
I agree with @Caseynotes but in addition, to avoid the issue in the question, a trader needs a firm grip of their emotions; needs to only trade when the set up is strong, not for other reasons; needs to cut losses and take the hit quickly, learn how to lose and need to have a method to get a sense for the rhythms of the market to avoid trading against the trend. It is about maximising your chances of success and minimising the pain when (not if) you get it wrong.
There is a difference between trading and analysing (coming up with the premise for your trade) but there isn't much difference between trading and investing in the context of the premise of the question. In investing punters (and that is what they are) go in for the wrong reasons; at the wrong times and hold on too long when things go against them. They also, by and large, think they know more than they actually do about how financial markets operate. The only material difference is that there losses are limited to the stake invested whereas trading on leverage has open-ended downside.
There you go @BMP2020, a very comprehensive discourse on what actually happens and why the majority will down their first account in quick time. A few do hit it straight off the bat and think they have 'got it' only to be tripped up when the market cycle changes and they give it all back, but most start losing straight away and continue so until their account disappears.
If you are constantly trying to second guess changes of direction in market price you will lose, if you have a tried and tested rules based strategy that automatically governs your every action at set situations you will have a chance, it takes time and loses before you can recognise the need for it. It doesn't need to be brilliant, just needs to keep you out of bad trades and in good ones.
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16 minutes ago, dmedin said:
(H+L+C)/3 or (H+L+O+C)/4? 😕
definitely the default (H+L+C)/3 which to my observations is the one most likely to be adhered to therefore the one that is used by the greater number of traders. I've pointed out numerous times price reversing at one of these levels 'to the tick', that can only happen if large size traders have set up pending orders at exactly that level.
@DSchenk was unlucky today as the Sunday 1 hour candle (gap) was of a fair size so the subsequent PPs it generated for Monday were believable, but on a normal Sunday the Monday PPs look like this pic below and there is no mistaking they are skewered.
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27 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
Struggling with PRT so far. Can't figure out where my PL is or my Balance. Manual is all a bit heavy and the vids don't appear to be thorough. Maybe a pre-requisite knowledge is required.
I'm on the Demo by the way.that used to be poor on prt, if memory serves you need to go to Options > Trading options > Statistics and order display > and check the boxes for 'display top of chart'.
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29 minutes ago, DSchenk said:
Casey and dmedin assume, then IG would have to wait for someone else (an individual) to sell the shares you buy and vice versa. IG only makes the spread.
if you have computer software to match buy with sell orders it's easy money taking a commission off both parties, why would you risk an FCA ban. Having said that sometimes a broker will act as a market maker to satisfy client demand but will hedge that to counter the risk.
Want to trade stocks with DMA facility
in Shares and ETFs
Posted
Hi, in the UK they do have a minimum account deposit for the DMA platform, otherwise it's free to use apart from any exchange subscription fees.
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