Caseynotes

ECB summary;

Another example of the pivots being tagged to the tick on Dax as post ECB dives to S1 then rallies to R2.

ECB goes further than expected, cuts rate and restarts bond buying, Trump responds >

Hi, i presume that's for mt4, after logging into IG, from the IG dashboard click on live accounts, select mt4 from the 'you are viewing' drop down box and the account number is listed there.

looks like the platform is 'having issues' on the open of US pre-market, see trading view chart below.

Still nothing on the actual cause, must admit I didn't notice anything yesterday, was the same issue too, not being able to close positions.

If there has been a lot of recent one way trades being opened or if the book is heavily one sided IG needs to off set that by opening hedging positions themselves but they have a risk limit, might be that.

ok, I forgot to include the one about IG being at maximum risk exposure for that asset, usually more often seen in the crypto markets 🙂

seen it before at every hint of a downturn and it drags the unwary down, I presume one day they will be right and you'll never hear the end of it but it's worth stepping back and having a think before jumping in short when, off the top of my head, it's +13% annually since 1950.

Interesting diplomatic/trade stance from the Chinese; SCOOP-Senior Chinese diplomat to FoxBusiness: China cannot be deterred in anti-poverty efforts, long-term growth strategy even amid trade talks; won’t make any compromise, even promising to eliminate IP theft that would stall growth more now.

The consensus is for an ECB rate cut today (as posted in the daily dashboard thread) from -0.4% to -0.5% but if that doesn't happen the Dow will be badly knocked as well as Dax, it will rattle bullish confidence in the expected cut by the Fed next week.

S&P and momentum - value chart showing the current spike down, from these levels the biggest rallies start plus another look at current hedge fund positioning and the suggestion that in the past they have ended up chasing the market rather than being the wise front runners. Also keeping an eye on the copper chart and a reminder of the copper gold ratio chart posted above on Sept 4th. 'History shows the biggest spikes were last-minute positioning resets that kick-started *massive* global cyclical rallies (2002, 2009, 2016).'

Early check for support following a big run up into yesterday's close and continuing on upbeat trade war news overnight. The Dow ATH is the purple monthly chart resistance level just overhead so the bulls will be wary, they know next week's expected rate cut is fully priced but Powell is capable of wrong footing them yet again. I suspect if the ATH is broken it will be by drifting price action with one eye on retreat rather than a full rush dam burst.

Hi, they don't do a table for commodities (probably because it's such a tricky calculation) but you can have a go working it out yourself, see examples for commodities half way down this page. https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/why-is-overnight-funding-charged-and-how-is-it-calculated-

The bulls went charging into the US close yesterday and have kept going since towing the others along but the ATH is just ahead for Dow so likely to be another pause. ECB rate decision today and is Draghi's last before handing over to Lagarde so may end up being a very non-committal presser at 1:30pm.

It's all gone risk on with Indices up Bonds down,Oil up Gold down, USD flat. Chart Japan 225 up 1%. High impact data releases today are the ECB rate decision 12:45 and presser at 1:30 plus US CPI at 1:30pm.

ok that's interesting - a big rally into the close on Dow, a sure sign of real bull strength. Dow daily and H1 charts;

well good luck, what's on the watchlist today then?

"China exporters praying weaker yuan will save them from Donald Trump’s higher trade war tariffs" https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3024557/china-exporters-praying-weaker-yuan-will-save-them-donald

yes none of the aspects is rocket science, it's all 'doable', it's putting together the complete package that is inevitably tailored to the individual that takes the time. There are teachers because having done the work to learn some find they can make more money teaching than actually doing. when you say am I hoping for some remuneration you surely don't mean a reward from IG for posting here on the forum do you? when I started posting it was with the hope of conversing with those of similar experience but it's mostly just pointing a long line of newbs in what I consider to be the right direction (ie away from simply blowing up their account in a matter of months, but admittedly with limited success).

I've had a number of different careers over the decades some of which were absolute money spinners and some that were an absolute joy but all of them took at least 5 years to really get on top of it. Someone might be able to explain quite adequately how to perform brain surgery but if that's all you've got to go on you're going to kill quite a few patients before you get the hang of it yourself. But once you have got the hang of it is it really still all risk? If your trade stats tell you the averages are good are you really going to worry how any one particular trade does? The concern shifts to building account size and so enable greater position size rather than starting a spinoff business I would have thought.

I did actually and was plagued for months afterwards by adverts to join his 'pay for group' which seemed to be his main business.

yes, that's understandable and no there wasn't really a question but just pointing out that the tools he is using to do the job are very expensive to get the results he claims and that the DMA was key which is available via IG. I'm assuming he is hooked up to all the big US exchanges to trade the companies on his watchlist that you are trying to copy and you would need to do the same.

Fascinating lecture on Poker Economics, one of the MIT's OpenCourseWare series . Delves into early Credit Creation and money and debt by linking poker in the early 1800's in the US mid west to soft banks and onto the formation of the CME futures market in the same region. Then comes back to poker and it's links to quant analysis in the 1980's, beating casinos and the emergence of hedge funds. Just over a hour long.

yes, around that level was the early July high resistance and then provided support once broken all through the rest of July.