Caseynotes

Big beat on Friday's NFP but the shine taken off by a decrease in the Average Hourly Earnings figure. US Manu PMI was also a beat at 56.6 vs 54.1 expected while the report also states that the overall US economy grew for the 117th consecutive month. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pmi-at-56-6-january-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-300787873.html Weekly charts and Dow now well out of recent consolidation and heading for next resistance at 26069 while the others remain capped with strong resistance immediately overhead.

Dow breakout to the upside confirmed yesterday while the other three remain trapped. Dax rechecked the bottom of the range. Ftse falling back into line but refusing at the 7000 fence. China stocks rise in spite of falling PMI figures. Daily charts;

Dax falling through multiple levels after an attempt and miss on the daily chart resistance (11321), now looking at daily chart support around 11000. 5 min chart.

'Everything you wanted to know about MMT but were afraid to ask'. Detailed but not too hard to follow article including a collection of different media from the last few years by different MMT experts to help explain MMT. Suggest to start with the video “Does Modern Monetary Theory make sense? (half way down page) before digging into the text. https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2019/01/23/mmt/

Interesting increasing disconnect between US indices and Europe, UK and Japan. The FOMC boost yesterday propelled Dow through resistance where the others were halted. Dax still reeling from the German finance minister's down grade of the GDP forecast from 1.8% to just 1% for this year, Ftse with the ongoing Brexit concerns and Nikkei presumably waiting for the US-China trade talks result. Trump meeting with China’s Vice Premier Liu He today at 20:00 GMT. Daily charts;

Another good beat on the ADP non-farm payrolls today, 213k vs 180k expected. Bodes well again for Friday's NFP which is forecasting 165k.

Trump was tweeting about it when he got up today and seemed to give it an extra push though the Venezuelan oil industry has been so run down over the years I wondered if it really mattered to world production. I saw some figures go through a few days back, I'll see if I can find them. If WTI can clear this resistance 58 is definitely on the cards.

The Boeing beat lifts Dow to complete the leg up to the top of the recent tight range seen on the daily in this mornings post. Concerned chatter on twitter on the possibility the FOMC statement this evening won't be as dovish as the market had hoped and has already priced in. Hourly Dow chart;

Oil got a bit of a boost today with US imposing new sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry.

Dax remains stagnant, Dow drifting in tight range as does Nikkei and Ftse continues to be reactive to Brexit headlines. Today the FOMC rate decision, statement and presser starting at 7:00 pm, also today possible news on US-China talks and more earnings data releases MS, FB, Tesla, Boeing, etc (see last post in linked thread. Daily charts;

US and China trade officials meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. Steven Mnuchin says that if China presents enough trade concessions to Trump, there is a chance that the administration may seek to lift all tariffs. US delivered a new set of proposals last month now Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is in Washington with their response. China is facing added urgency to end the trade spat amid the weakest domestic growth since 2009. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-29/mnuchin-signals-chance-to-end-china-tariff-war-ahead-of-talks?utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-economics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=economics

Just looking at the Dax weekly chart and the bulls must be looking at that wall ahead with a certain amount of trepidation. Probably thinking to themselves they'll be needing some help from Dow if they're to break through that. FOMC and a trade dispute break through together could do it.

This is an excellent piece by CryptoCred where he writes about those who have influenced his trading style. He explains exactly what core principles he has gained from each and how those principles have been incorporated into his own actual trading. This is real core 'need to know' on actual trading from real traders rather than the woolly type of stuff you get from the usual crop of educators and chart technicians. As mentioned in the piece these guys also have many hours of online videos you can look up to get a fuller understanding of the concepts contained within the article. https://medium.com/@cryptocreddy/lessons-from-my-trading-teachers-77b4ca13cf83

As quoted from John Kicklighters blog today, "Given that US indices – a proxy for risk trends – are still on pace for the best month’s performance in years". Dow well over 5% gain for this month so far and as John states is heading to be the best performing month literally for years. Certainly not a month to spend attempting shorts.

Dax barely moved at all yesterday while Dow made a half hearted attempt to check the tight range low. The markets not finding any real incentive to go lower at the moment nor incentive to drive higher with the FOMC statement coming up tomorrow and NFP on Friday. China's market made gains and looks to have had a knock on affect on the Nikkei this morning which may offer a lift to the others today.

Earnings releases calendar for this week.

New week and Ftse looks to continue on it's own path out of sync with the other three. Positive spin expected on the next round of US - China trade talks and US FOMC on Wednesday and US NFP and manu PMI on Friday. Friday's daily bar Dax and Dow were strong bull so automatically presuming the same to follow today unless proved otherwise so waiting for today's daily bar to turn blue then looking for long entries. Daily charts;

So you might be looking at the Dow and Dax daily chart and thinking could this be a stop run before a big down move? Though it's possible I don't think it's probable. Concentrating on the Dax, price put in a high at 11279 and reversed on Jan 20th, went down and reversed again at 11000 which is old support turned resistance turned support again. Then back up to poke through 11279 and fall back. If you entered short on the 20th/21st your stop was just above 11279. A stop run is where large players push price through stops to (in this case) force holders of short contracts out of the market and so make those short contracts available to the market. The level becomes a short contracts accumulation zone. Once the trap has been sprung the large players are feverishly taking up all available short contracts which gives rise to large bear bars on the smaller time frames. But if we look at the smaller time frames on Dow and Dax the bear bars are not convincing. Compare the daily and hourly charts below, the second pair is of a successful stop run in eurusd and see how it just doesn't compare to the current Dow and Dax charts. The scramble to pick up the short contracts won't always show up on the same daily bar if it happens late in the day but should show up on the hourly bars after the trap has been triggered.

Dow and Dax finished the day sat on the daily resistance (orange) having flown over then under and back up to. Not surprising there was a lack of enthusiasm for pushing too much on week end. Easy to see how those precise levels, which were drawn on Monday morning's chart, were well respected in today's price action by taking a look at the 15 min charts below. Using a few precise levels is a far better option than loading your chart with scores of mediocre ones.

Both Dow and Dax have made the break up through their respective daily chart resistance levels, Ftse still in the doldrums and Nikkei has some catching up to do. Early in the day for the US session but it's still a Friday so I wouldn't expect price to run away with it. 4 hour charts;

Yes, in the calendar linked in the OP the hover over to pop up graph is great and clicking on the graph icon opens a new page packed with added info. I agree the non-data stuff is often just as important, some sites simply link to the official minutes once released which is better than nothing. A print or download option would be handy as well.

Thanks @JamesIG, I especially like using the added graphs such as on the calendar linked above and on the Forex Factory site and also a + tab as on FF and the Dailyfx calendar that explains what the data is based on, how it's collected and how often it's published etc. Also, traditionally the IG calendar has been very stocks biased (at least that was my impression from years ago, may have improved since).

Dow positioned for a possible break higher today. German Ifo Business Climate data 9:00am. 4 hour charts;

Dow going a bit nuts today, firstly working it's way up to resistance then a big push down through support on US trade talks member stating US and China were 'miles and miles apart' then reverses again on US PMIs beat.

German manufacturing PMI falls below 50 signalling contraction, first time since Nov 2014 (8:30 am, 49.9 vs 51.5 expected). Dax rises on the news - why. Because it is so fully intent on shadowing the Dow. 1 minute charts;