Caseynotes

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Yesterday's Dow daily was a bearish bar taking price down to the support level created by the drop on Monday (25608 orange) so will be looking to see if this support holds today. Dow has the ECB rate decision (12:45) and the Draghi presser (1:30) to look forward to today. Though these have been dull affairs lately this one might be more interesting if the ECB change their outlook.

US ADP non-farm payroll figures today at 1:15, could give a hint to the big NFP release on Friday. 190K forecast, note beats on the last 4 out of 5 (see pic below).

Dow remains confused over direction and is ranging between 25726 and 25894 despite yesterday's non-manu PMI beat of 59.7. Dax is following Dow while Ftse continues to dance to the Brexit deal or no deal headlines. Meanwhile the Shanghai Composite continues full steam ahead.

Interesting short video from Topdown Charts looking at 5 charts including China/US PMIs, DM/EM PMIs, Futures stocks vs bonds and the Investor Confidence Index

@mckenzie126 & @Trevbeats, see this IG comparison page (recently updated to include the US); https://www.ig.com/uk/compare-our-leveraged-trading

Something of a mini 1 hour flash crash yesterday at 4 pm on no news, indicative of a jittery market that is up against a boundary and has already priced in improved trade relations between US and China but still waiting for some actual proof. Dow found support at 25608 then again more recent at 25757. The first target for the bulls will be to get above the old daily support line at 25868. US non-manu PMI today at 3:00 pm forecast is 57.4 Dax dropped just below 11569 (red) and will be interesting to see if the bulls can get price back up and over and may provide a hint as to the direction of the Dow today.

COT has nearly caught up to date having been publishing twice a week since the ending of the US govt shutdown. Looking at the Dow - large speculators remain net long while small speculators have dived in short from the end of Dec and into Jan and Feb and stayed in. I did see that sentiment had turned for the retail trade some time ago which would suggest many are underwater at the moment and watching price closing in on their stop. S&P 75% and Dow 64% of IG retail clients have short positions (during one of the strongest 2 month bull runs in history). Dow top pic

yeh @TrendFollower, that's the most obvious support level on the chart and so that's where buyers can be expected to band together and try to rally. Though the news re; trade talks continues to be good though guarded I think the big news last week was the 2.6% US GDP beating the forecast 2.2%. Match that with US PMIs consistently in the 55s-60s shows the US economy is stronger than thought.

The plummet continues, gold currently at 1286.94 and heading for the weekly support level 1276.61. Daily and Hourly chart;

Looking at the weekly charts and Dow looking for it's 11th straight bull candle. After a strong Friday bull candle on the daily Dow chart price gapped up on Sunday and no reason to suppose anything other than continuation for today. On the Dow H1 price just pulling back from a test of 26169 so we could see an initial attempt to gap fill down to 26069 but the day's targets are 26169 then 26241. Dax H1 in a similar situation and currently testing ST support at 11660. Looking to the 7 am and 8 am candles to signal direction for the morning session.

Why I often go on about PMIs and market sentiment, incidentally US manu PMI data today at 3:00 pm https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/02/28/How-Market-Sentiment-Confidence-Releases-Improve-Trading.html

The markets look to have gotten over the disappointments of Trump's Asia visit but still with a sense the trade dispute is in it's end game. Dax in a early break of long standing resistance 11569 while Dow shaping up for a test of 26241. Ftse looking to join in the rally though well off the pace.

HI @steve1875, broker platforms are fixed to the time zone of the country in which they are based and can't be changed however IG also incorporates a third party platform Prorealtime which does enable changing time zones though there are conditions attached to the use of PRT via IG.

Run down on month end flow from LMAX.

Reminder it's month end today.

Hi @PhiloBeddoe, the 5 day Average True Range for FTSE is currently 60.4 points. See pic below;

FANG sticking point;

Should be ... and possibly 25761 (orange daily support, not 25861).

Delayed US GDP data (Govt shutdown) out today 1:30, may cause a splash.

Trump Asia trip hits a couple of snags, no agreement yet on compliance verification with China and no agreement signing with North Korea. Dow going down to retest 25870 and possibly on to 25861, Nikkei, Dax and Ftse following suit.

@cryptotrader Increasing volume going through in the futures market.

To continue on the theme in the post above on why bias is bad and why trying to call tops and bottoms is pointless. Take a look at the daily chart of any asset you care to name. Look at random candles and note the colour of the following candle. The probability is that it will be the same colour. If you need a bias that's it, the next candle is most likely going to be a continuation candle. Take a look at the anatomy of a bull continuation candle. The candle opens at yesterday's close, buyers do not usually start buying straight away, they wait first to see if they can buy cheaper. Bears and counter trenders will try their luck and oblige pushing price down. At some point the buyers will step back in and push price back up. A bottom tail is formed. As price goes back up through the open and the candle turns green is the first sign today will be a continuation day and you should be looking for longs. Price continuing on through yesterday's high is a second sign. Through the course of the day regular attempts at reversal turn into just pullbacks providing more opportunities to get long or for adding to longs. Near the end of the day the day traders are getting out and the top tail starts to form until the bar close. Though the 24 hour nature of many markets now skewers the picture somewhat the general pattern can still be seen. Major turning points in big markets often take days or even weeks and sometimes months to complete, take a step back and look at the weekly and monthly charts and the turning points become clear, there is no need to guess. 200 SMA on the weekly Dow.

Trump expects a deal to be signed today, the markets have learnt to be cautious, much of the good news has already been priced in over the last couple of weeks but always room for surprises. Ftse continues to be wildly erratic with Brexit uncertainty. H4 charts;

Here is a great chart I originally posted on the forum back in 2016 and I'm very pleased to see it's recently been updated. It gives a valuable insight into the mind set of 'the punters' and has become famous over time as it is so revealing. Firstly it's important to point out these guys are not a bunch of amateurs, oh no, there are Nobel prize winners in here, great hedge fund managers, professional commentators all keen to leave their mark on posterity. So there are two themes going on, one is the actual chart itself, you will note it starts off in the bottom left hand corner and progresses diagonally up to the top right hand corner. Like all charts that pictorial aspect alone speaks volumes, you only have to look at it and you can see exactly what's going on. Then the overlay is of all these great minds all trying to 'call the top', it's hilarious. How many goes are they going to have? As many as it takes it seems, one day maybe they will actually get it right it. But why are they even trying? When a chart rolls over it is obvious, it doesn't matter what the time frame, when you see it you can act, but constantly calling the top and so missing the repeated bull run continuations is not what the game is about. These guys have an agenda, trading successfully would not appear to be it. It is often said more money is lost trying to pick tops and bottoms than anything else, being constantly wrong footed by the market is disastrous. Getting in too late is more preferable to getting in too early. You don't need a bias, the chart is screaming out to you, the most likely next move is always going to be continuation. This is true of any asset on any time frame, when a major or even minor reversal does occur the candles will signal it and it will usually be at a significant level and usually with volume. It is distracting and fruitless to be continually trying to second guess the market as these great minds have repeatedly proved over a very long period of time.