Caseynotes

If you're looking for the most comprehensive economic calendar around this is the one for you, somewhat more comprehensive than the IG version at any rate. 🙂 https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar

ECB rate decision today at 12:45 and Draghi presser at 1:30. Dow poised midway between daily chart support and resistance (orange). Waiting for the open for direction confirmation. 1 hour charts;

As mentioned this morning re Dow Oct to early Dec trading range, bulls so far keeping Dow back in the box after a bear challenge to support level, tomorrow should see a try for higher before another low test.

Dow and Dax attempting to break up past overnight resistance after retesting the recent low this morning. Ftse may look to follow. 1 hour charts;

A zoom out on the daily just to remind ourselves of the overall picture. Into the 4th week of up trend off the low, as is pointed out by Kyle in the APAC brief, where this new next higher low (if that's what it's to be) is placed is important. The PA for Dow between Oct and the start of Dec was large range and the bulls have worked hard to get price back into that range, can they keep it there?

Until something new comes along. The IMF, it must be said, don't exactly have a brilliant record for forecasting but it's the latest bit of news and so bound to cause some positioning readjustment.

yeh @TrendFollower, the lower IMF expectations for global growth means bets are coming off oil (as demand expectations are reduced), hampering stocks and indices, and giving gold and USD a boost.

Quite right @dmedin, we have been discussing that very point in the Gold thread and quite rightly TA can't be taken in isolation. Fundamentals (new news, new data) are the market drivers, TA helps explain how price might travel and where the eventual destination might be on a chart but it's the fundamentals that gives price the push and the direction. In the IG 'trade of the week' short gold the point was that upward momentum had petered out and sellers were pushing price back and if buyers did not rally at support (1270) and the level broke then the sellers have gained control and a short could be a good trade at least for the short term. As it happened buyers did protect 1270 and shortly after that the IMF report (new news) gave the buyers an added boost sending price back up into mid range.

Ftse getting out of sorts this morning and only belatedly catching up. Dow and Dax bouncing between support and resistance. 15 min charts; https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/groundhog.mp4?_=1

Oil down on IMF gloomy global growth report. 1 hour;

It's an interesting chart, lots of big tails, lots of gaps but certainly on a bullish run though just coming up to resistance before the all time high so would be expecting the bullish run to start to falter around here and start to think about what to do next, shoot for the high or turn down to regroup. Has already had 2 weeks on this straight run up so some flagging at least should be expected. Nelsy is right, it's tricky calling a turn on news without waiting for chart confirmation it often turns into a coin toss. You are right that too early is the same as wrong though surprisingly doesn't seem to bother many as they've been calling the big short since the start of 2016, so best to ignore in my opinion. Listen to the news and be ready to act as the chart starts to react (if it does). Calling tops and bottoms is hard work but many do make a living out of it. They use strong support and resistance chart levels, their success rate is small but the risk is minimal, stop loss just beyond the entry S/R level, but the rewards can be very big if they catch a new impulse leg in the opposite direction.

More political turmoil and China stocks sliding, others following suit. Reports that US will be formally requesting the extradition of Huawei executive Meng.

Pullback off the highs this morning. Dow short term support 24572, Dax held at 11136 and Ftse currently at 6972 with short term support at 6954. 1 hour charts.

Very good article on how to trade with candle stick charts, made up from extracts from a free e-book for which there are links to at the top of the article (need to give email address for a mailing list which you can latter unsubscribe) http://www.newtraderu.com/2017/07/06/trade-candlestick-charts/

Public holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Day) and the markets may well take a pause following the strong run up on Friday. Daily charts;

All 4 gaining with Dax breaking out past 10994, Ftse up over the 6941 resistance level and Dow waits for the US open.

yeah @Kodiak, looks to be following in the footsteps of Dow.

Very good Tradeciety article on tips to finding trade entries. https://www.tradeciety.com/6-tips-to-finding-better-trade-entries-with-every-trading-strategy/

The Dow break looks for continuation, Nikkei tries to secure a similar break, Dax looks to be about to make a break of it's own while Ftse has some catching up to do. Dow got a good boost yesterday around 8:30 pm on reports Trump was contemplating rolling back China tariffs, the market didn't care those rumours were refuted less than an hour later.

Dow looking to retest breakout, Nikkei testing support while Dax and Ftse eyes on Dow. China needing to increase stimulus, Philly Fed manu index on the calendar though US gov partial shutdown causing a backlog of delayed data.

@Kodiak, that's what we should be looking for, tight trading ranges can only lead to one thing and that's a breakout, don't mind which way, if the bulls win price will march up, bears win then it's down. But the important thing is price must leave that old battle ground in search of new resting orders, it takes extra special effort to drag price back into a rejected large time frame trading range. Coming up to US close and the Dow break up looks clean so far so odds in favour of Dax following suit tomorrow am. Dow H4 and Dax H1 hour charts;

Dow pushing higher on the US open, may be getting that break higher out of consolidation that's been looking likely since Monday.

Something like that @dmedin, though mostly the sharks feed on each other, the dumb money is merely a morsel. Hence, as in the Dante quote, the first aim is survival, that is to say not losing money. It's funny how everyone who starts trading is thinking about making money rather than not losing it, as you say in the OP, the stats are there for all to see. So if they make the first goal not to lose money and concentrate on that then they probably wouldn't even start on that long road which is so time/money consuming of searching for the perfect indicator/TA methodology combo and instead just stick to the basics, they would likely be much better off.

Useful Nial Fuller tutorial on how he analyses price action on clean charts to spot trades. He's using the current gold chart in this article just published today. http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-trading-strategies/how-analyze-price-action-clean-charts

Here we are again, Dow poised for a break high. Mon and Tue saw the same thing but each time the London session pushed down strongly only to see the US session send price back up to toe the line. Another round of G20 meetings starting tomorrow. Do they ever tire of those, why on earth do they need so many?