Caseynotes

Fairly flat morning session, Dow remains close to the short term highs still looking for a push into the upper band range or a deeper search for more support, looking towards the US open for a sign either way.

Dow just backing off the short term high pre Monday open, on the open will be looking for a run up to retest those highs and possible continuation. Reuters reporting increasing concerns re China economy https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/aussie-kiwi-dollar-tumble-on-poor-china-trade-data-idUSKCN1P800V JPY public holiday today.

Indeed I have been sat here for a good many tears, I mean years. Did I get rich quick, no. I do treat it as a business though, a buying and selling business. So like all careers there is a lot of theory to be grounded in plus a lot of practical to get experience in. There is probably a whole years worth of course work in just learning how to spot and avoid the traps. I picked out an old Tom Dante quote which sums it up rather well, see below.

Ha ha, yes, exactly the same thing happened to me. I started a 4 year university course but realised I knew it all after the first year so I took the final exam and unbelievably I didn't pass. Clearly someone was to blame for this (other than me obviously) so I cast my eyes around and of course it must have been the college's fault. I mean all you have to do is take some indicators and chuck them on a chart and then pick out some pretty patterns right? I knew this would be easy for me as I'm good at spotting patterns. Clearly the fact that this approach failed meant the whole thing must be rigged. So next I scoured the internet looking for someone to tell me what to do and would you believe it but that didn't work either. The whole internet is telling me to do this or do that but when I applied these tips and tricks to the stocks I had carefully selected by chucking darts a stock page pinned to the wall nothing worked! I didn't realise I was competing in a two way auction, I thought I was just gambling like I do in Vegas where if the action is really hot and the big guys are throwing lots of money around and the spread is getting bigger and bigger then that is exactly the right time to jump in, boy was I suckered. It's not fair really as all I wanted, all I was trying to do, was to get rich quick, a very reasonable and quite simple goal really. The fact that this did not happen has made me sad and this has affected my relationships and it's all due to nothing less than completely unwarranted victimisation by the system I was trying to beat.

US session and weekly close sees Dow back up to challenge resistance leaving the others left lagging. The daily Dow shows a second day attempt to drive lower thwarted and price back to nudging this very important level.

Very similar story to yesterday, a morning attempt to break higher failed except for Ftse which was soon reeled back in. Yesterday saw the break upward after the US open, same may happen again today though being Friday any move may be subdued. 5 min charts;

All looking poised for a break higher. Interesting Reuters report this morning that the markets are pricing in no further rate hikes this year at all and that plans are being made for China's president Xi to visit Washington latter this month. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/dollar-slips-on-fed-chiefs-patient-comments-idUSKCN1P501T

@elle, in agreement. Noticed your fibs are starting to turn Quantile (25%, 50%, 75%) new direction or just experimentation? As you point out the 50 looks significant.

@TrendFollower, I know, I think a whole new branch of chart patterns needs to be written up specially for crypto, am keeping my eyes peeled for a goal post pattern next. Of note though in both that recent up surge and then the down surge both were done and pretty much completed on just a 5 minute candle - social media organised pumping?

The Dow (and others) at a significant position on the daily chart, a break to the upside will throw it back into the higher band range while a break to the downside ... Friday not a good day for major breakouts but given the Feds new respect for the emotional turmoil of the markets and so their easing up of a systematic rate rise approach and given an easing of US-China trade tensions further upside is anticipated. But, as ever, new news can make the markets reverse on a pin head so as always, be ready for anything.

US oil back in congestion zone suggesting sideways price action for the near term.

Bitcoin returns to earth, not quite sure what that chart pattern is called.

So, after a market open that was more akin to a NFP release Dax now approaching short term resistance. Will be looking for a capture of 10863 and continuation upward.

The indices just pulling back a bit after a lack of much detail from either side after the end of the US-China. Fed minutes and members reiterating a dovish shift in outlook and both Powell and Bullard to speak today (around 5:40 pm) expected to continue that theme. All looking for short term support this morning with a view to another leg up. Zoomed out 4 hour charts;

Dow did attack the 23881 but failed this morning and PA somewhat aimless since ranging within the 4 hour support and resistance levels (green) while Dax has been gyrating around 10911. Ftse holding up well but not able to break away on it's own. Will be looking to the afternoon session for another attempt at the resistance levels though traders may be waiting for the latest FOMC meeting minutes published today at 7 pm which could well provide a spur one way or the other. 5 min charts;

Quite right @TrendFollower the market can turn any which way on new news but I also wouldn't assume good news either. The unknown is always 50/50 until it becomes a known so it's a case of preparing for either. Some would have us believe that markets are technically driven but that is not so. Fundamentals are the market drivers, technicals just describe how price moves in order to get there. That is why I always wait for direction to be evident and a most obvious target identified and only then look for an entry point. It's just not worth trying to second guess the market, you will constantly be getting trapped. I don't even try to catch turning points anymore but rather wait for the first pullback to fail to be a reversal and join the continuation of the new trend.

Worth taking a refresher look at the daily charts. Dax did progress as expected in yesterday's post as did Dow and both now approaching new resistance though Ftse looks untroubled and has pushed on ahead. Looking today for continuation upward if Dow can leap the blue resistance level 23881. Still no hard news out of the China-US trade talks but there must be something sometime and it will move the markets. nb; the COT report has been held up due to the US gov partial shutdown.

Interesting monthly ftse chart with price attempting to break back up above the monthly support level (turned resistance?). Securing 6839 looks to be important for both the bulls and bears.

Dax looking to continue upward to test 10895 having retested the daily resistance turned support level 10702 though overnight orders causing an initial push down on the European open. Dow looking to clear 23685.

Dow still hanging onto the daily chart resistance level 23440 (orange) while Dax dropped down in the morning session to find support at 10702 (prior resistance daily - orange). Hourly charts.

Interesting position to start the week. Dow bulls will be looking to secure this resistance level to use as support. US non-manu PMI data (news) today at 3:00 pm, 59.6 expected, 60.7 previous. Daily charts;

Dax looking at the 10640 resistance level after the NFP beat. Was looking at client sentiment for Dow (56% long) and was surprised by the other indices as well as the 'most' open positions (see pic) the US large caps. Did also note the IG disclaimer at the bottom of the page and the new year's amended loser rate, up from 79% to 81%. Hands up who's responsible for that. 👀 ps; remember to be logged in for the expanded market data pages. pps; Dax now looking to 10712.

Will be interesting to keep an eye on the house price figures @cryptotrader, the govt has a long history of intervening anytime the boomers nest egg is threatened but by now most need help from the bank of mum and dad to even contemplate buying one. Something of a paradox. When you say 'next year' are you meaning 2019?

Hi @PipEvangelist, the leverage factor is related to your bet size and margin amount. Max leverage of 20:1 (UK) equates to a 5% minimum margin requirement for a trade for example. If you were looking to use the maximum leverage available you would increase bet size (£/point on SB or number of contracts on cfd) to the point where the margin requirement for the trade maxed out in relation to your account size though remember this is initial margin and if the trade went negative you would need to add funds to the account. Conversely if you wanted to trade with minimum leverage then you would lower the bet size down to the platform minimum. The margin requirement is calculated on the deal ticket for you so you can experiment with different amounts to find what best suits your risk tolerance in relation to your account size.

Steady retrace after the slide down on poor US PMI figures yesterday looks to be on the back of gains on the Shanghai Composite which is up 1.7% after hitting a 4 year low. Will be looking for continuation to resistance as Dow looks to have recaptured 22812.