Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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On 7/22/2018 at 9:13 AM, Caseynotes said:
Hi @JohnWoottonUK & @PandaFace, Don't know too much about him or this Dow strategy. He does get a hat tip from Bill Bonner who I have followed for years. I was wondering where you found the strategy John and if you have done his 4 day course in the first link below?
Panda, Eoin Treacy's book Crowd Money could be a contender for your tread on books (2nd link).
http://www.tradingtriggers.co.uk/
http://systemsfortraders.com/forums/topic/crowd-money-review-eoin-treacy/
Thanks, I should update too, I mentioned above the free 4 day course which I did signed up for out of interest. Of course there were regular plugs for the subscription service but on the whole it was interesting. It is only 4 half hour lectures where he sets out his general strategy which is quite simple and sound with no tricks and does at least give a few ideas so it was worth the time. Screening for setups was a major factor and this is where the subscription service would do a lot of the 'leg work'.
(trading triggers link above)
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Dax just put in an interesting break bar on the European open following the Nikkei up while Dow sits poised to break higher as well.
H1.thumb.png.38838dbd034de0f287ee6998c0de3925.png)
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The rolling review gives esma the opportunity to tighten the regs rather than loosen so it was a bit of a relief that they are exempting the new KO type options offering when they could have crippled them.
Another update here;
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Esma extends for another 3 months the new regulations but there is a nod to longer term type options/binaries like the new IG KOs.
https://www.ft.com/content/5fd9b9d0-a769-11e8-926a-7342fe5e173f
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Nikkei has pushed on higher while the Dow, Dax and FTSE are trying to push up off support so today looking for the Dax to retest 12412 and 12441.
1 hour charts;
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Dow, Dax and FTSE remain stuck in this tight range of the last 4 or 5 days waiting for something to break it, China trade news presumably.
4 hour charts;
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Trump in the news again and the markets wobble. The Dax , Dow and FTSE appear to have put in a short term base and look to be testing the highs following Nikkei but they are very nervous.
The Euro open is suggesting a retest of the lows but will wait for the London open for confirmation as to direction.
1 hour charts;
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Hi @Bunton, There has been talk from IG that an additional 'inner stop' for the KOs is in development which will add to it's appeal for those not able to monitor as closely as a scalper.
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Rayner Teo's complete free video playlist (over 60 vids) on technical analysis, indicators, chart patterns and tips,
https://www.youtube.com/user/tradingwithrayner/playlists
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Expecting Dow to continue to creep higher so looking for Dax to retest 12375 and FTSE to retest 7617.
4 hour charts;
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All things fraud. Dan Davis interview, former regulatory economist at BoE and author of 'Lying For Money'.
http://www.allthingsrisk.co.uk/2018/08/20/ep-89-dan-davies-lying-for-money/
We get into the various topics covered in the book including:
- The concept of the “optimum level of fraud” in and economy ? this sounds counter-intuitive but because both fraud and economic growth depend on trust, there will always be a level of fraud in an advanced economy;
- The types and characteristics of fraud;
- The mechanics of different types of fraud, including lots of examples;
- Rogue traders;
- Why frauds have a “snowball effect”;
- The role of primal, human emotions in fraud
- Much more
1 hour 10 minutes.
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Large speculators are now net short the Euro and all the 'risk on' currencies as USD buying continues though interestingly gold and the Swiss franc are at 'bearish extremes'. Commodities increasingly 'out of favour'.
https://www.marketsnow.com/analysis/cot-report-speculators-now-short-the-euro
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Dow, Dax and FTSE look well positioned for a push higher today.
1 hour charts;
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The Dax and FTSE failed to keep step with the Dow yesterday and remain near the lows of their recent ranges while the Dow looks to break out of the top on it's own, the lack of EU and UK follow on is presumably the result of the Turkey situation and the large exposure of Euro banks. With the Dow being a leading index and that link temporarily broken the short term direction for the Dax and FTSE is not clear.
Weekly charts;
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Fair point @Medusa123, the new KOs are still under development and many will be waiting for the proposed 'inner stop loss' before taking them up. As things are at the moment they are a 'knock out' option as opposed to a 'knock in' option ( see the link in the thread 'Options Trading' ) and so the guaranteed stop loss is a long distance from the entry level, you can manually close out at any time but without an added adjustable stop means the trade needs to be closely monitored.
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After yesterday's London session dive the Dow has regained Tuesday's levels with the Nikkei not far behind so looking for similar progression in the Dax and FTSE in this morning's session.
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Lack of enthusiasm to have a real go at the 4 hr (yellow) resistance levels in the indices charts, current picture looks like a retest of the 4 hr support levels most likely this morning.
4 hour charts;
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@PandaFace I would have said that until the inner stop loss arrives you'll want to put in a price level alert in at a nominated stop loss position then close manually once the alert has triggered ... but KO's don't seem to have an alert function.
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Knowing the EU we should consider the flip side to the rolling 3 month trial is that it also gives ESMA the opportunity to see what loopholes and work arounds the brokers come up with and then close them down with amendments to their regulations.
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Looking like they have found support and as with the Nikkei are likely this morning to explore higher for resistance.
Daily charts;
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New article and video explaining how to use the ATR indicator from Rayner Teo;
https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/atr-indicator/
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USD well into positive territory with large speculators and the euro is about to go negative joining JPY, GBP, CHF and developed market commodities. And judging recent events EMs not far behind.
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All gaped down after the weekend and remain unfilled, are waiting now for the London open to give some direction.
Daily charts;
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Interesting question Ajg, presumably there is the tax benefits of an options type instrument on a spread betting platform instead of the CFD platform. And having an adjustable stop feature (proposed) on an options intrument. A professional account wouldn't have the negative equity protection.
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Indices
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
Dow makes the big break and looks now to be eyeing up the January high which is over 600 points away so likely be some bumps on the way. Dax will have the same problem reaching for 12887.
Daily charts;