[Indices]

Continuing globalization @Mercury, IG can't even come up with a spell checker that uses English english. It wasn't that long ago when these markets closed and gapped everyday, now they are strongly tied 24/5. Occasionally on nation specific news one will march off in a different direction but once a new level is established will soon fall back into step.

Dow has just pushed lower, Dax and Nikkei have followed and FTSE is frozen staring at that rather intimidating support level immediately below it.

[Indices]

Definitely volatile at the mo @Mercury and no clear direction yet, price drifted down a little on the Euro open but there has been a right battle since the London open. The Dax wants to push higher but seems capped by Dow which looks happy where it is as attempts to push both higher and lower have stalled. So all three are boxed and waiting for a break.

[Indices]

Looking at the daily charts and the Dow retested support then made a strong recovery leaving behind the Dax and FTSE to languish at their own support levels. If Dow can continue higher today I would expect both Dax and FTSE to follow, FTSE has been tracking the Dax intraday for a couple of weeks now. 

But if Dow decides to head down again Dax and FTSE could be in some trouble as the red support levels are weekly. The monthly support level below for Dax is at 11690 while for FTSE it is at 6839. 

 

[MT4 History Centre]

Hi @skibum84,  yes the long term data is metatrader's. IG only load so much when they add a new asset onto MT4, for example when they added bitcoin it came with only about 6 months of pre-data. The currencies were the first on IG's MT4 platform and the Indices came latter, I took that message as more of a legal disclaimer, if fact I had forgotten it as after accepted once you never see it again.

I don't think you will find too much of a difference, most people use the historic data for back testing and I can't say I have heard anyone has had a problem with it.

[MT4 History Centre]

Hi @skibum84,  all the main assets should go back to 1997.04.01.

I've found in the past it pays to go though all time frames starting at the 1 min - double click - download, and working your way through them all in sequence (the later ones go through very fast) rather than selecting one time frame or just the monthly time frame.

[Indices]

A very thin calendar this week and today is a bank holiday for the US, Cad and Jpy. 

On the weekly charts the Dow put in a pause bar after testing into new highs, the US economy is clearly booming but event risks remain in view chiefly the China trade dispute. Currently no reason to see a plunge down so sideways seems the most likely scenario while awaiting new news. Nikkei also pulled back after new highs while Dax remains trapped in it's triangle and FTSE has marked out an inner range within the larger range...

[TESLA]

I thought you meant the car, which does seem to be popular with mostly good buyer reviews, just the poor production levels a problem. But yes, I see from your charts what you mean and yes, traders still consider this to be a cheap zone in which to buy and that may well prove to be the case again though repeated tests of supply or demand zones eventually exhaust the supply/demand so one never knows but can only watch carefully for an opportunity to catch a lift either up or down, don't care which. 

[TESLA]

There's a chart you don't see every day, Tesla spikes down, gaps up, then fills the gap to retest the low.

Should make for an interesting US Monday open.

[no easy ways to draw point to point line( keep horizontal).]

I think this is the same problem (as @MaxJ describes it), as trendlines never matching on lower time frames when drawn on higher time frames, I did read up about it a long time ago and have forgotten the details, but it had something to do with the way info for each time frame was packaged and transported to the next with the limit to the values used causing discrepancy further down.

I have never come across a platform that repeats lines perfectly on all time frames. 

[TESLA]

Musk calls SEC the Shortsellers Enrichment Commission and tells us shortselling should be illegal.

Meanwhile ZH points out a minor change to the wording of previous production estimates.

[Indices]

So in a reminder that sometimes technical analysis 'ain't worth a d amn'  the Dow has been leading Dax, FTSE and Nikkei around like sheep for the last 1-2 days (as was mentioned in the FTSE 100 thread yesterday).

In an interesting study in index uniformity the three followed Dow down starting at 19:00 Wednesday then after a short pause followed Dow down again starting 14:00 yesterday til 19:00 when it started to lead them all back up.

Though this is not always going to be the case it shows it is always worth keeping an eye on the market leader.

Currently back in a pause spell and waiting for NFP today. 1 hour charts  >

 

[Earnings Calendar]

A handy Cut Out And Keep earnings releases calendar for October

[Indices]

The Dow got a good lift off of the high ADP NFP yesterday which came in at 230k and bodes well for Friday's NFP and also the non-manu PMI which came in a whopping 61.6. After the new high in Dow came the pullback which seems to be continuing this morning as the Dax rips lower on the Euro open heading down towards support at 1220. The FTSE not getting involved with it's attention drawn to the con conf and the Brexit deal uncertainty. 

[Multi Chart Layout]

@Kev100, no problem ?

[Indices]

The switching between Dow and NASDAQ makes a lot of sense considering that markets are not just risk on/off but there is also a sliding scale within risk on and risk off. So the more risk on you felt the more you would weigh your portfolio toward NASDAQ for example.

Tech stock totally dominates S&P and NASDAQ as you say, just add up the percentages below >

[Indices]

Reminder it's a German bank holiday today and so the Dax is putting in some odd out of hours small time frame bars.

[Indices]

Nice line here taken from @JasmineC in the APAC call this morning with regards the Dow creeping higher; " A word of warning must be disclaimed with the Dow Jones as relatively high as it: though one wouldn’t want to call a marked sell-off, rallies for the Dow Jones that extend this far above the more comprehensive S&P500 often result in a pull back for the Dow Jones, as traders buy into the index in an attempt to enter-and-exit the market on the basis of rosy-sentiment."

The S&P gives a better overall picture than the Dow but I use the Dow simply because I found more forum uses followed it, the reason I figured was because IG had a heavy min bet size on the S&P though that seems to have changed at some point since I last checked.

So the Dow may well pull off a bit and follow the Nikkei while Dax remains trapped in it's inner triangle within a triangle (base at 12189) and FTSE in a similar holding pattern bouncing between 7443 and 7557.

With US non- manu  PMI today I thought to add the current chart of composite PMIs forecasts looking strong stretching into 2020.https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence/forecast

[Indices]

As the chart above suggests @Mercury there really needs to be a sizable event to cause a sizable bar to break the level in no uncertain terms such as the bar that broke the level (zone) in late 2016. Given that the US is close to full employment the NFP numbers would be unlikely to produce such an event or such a bar.

While the US economy remains strong but the trade war drags on it is likely the meandering will continue for some time yet.

[Indices]

Big resistance levels always take something a bit special to break them and higher highs during a trade war would be a lot to expect though if that barrier was removed anything is possible. Failure to break through doesn't automatically lead to a major reversal as this chart shows.

 

 

 

 

[Indices]

Good points all  @Mercury  and very much in line with what you were saying 2-3 years ago. I was referring to the US economy which currently has 4.2% annual growth and rising, record low unemployment and unprecedented cash inflows since the lowering of corporation taxes as well as from improved trade deals. Not really the set stage for a massive downturn, not yet anyway. Many may have sat on the sidelines and missed the continued rally up of the last few years til this latest period of consolidation but given all of the above and the current charts a resolving of the trade dispute with China could well lead to a new leg up for Dow and S&P. 

[Indices]

The US/Cad trade deal keeps Dow hugging the highs, once at the table Trudeau capitulates just as fast as Junker, both due to the imminent threat to their auto industries. So the only hurdle left to what could be the next major leg up for US indices after this period of consolidation is the Chinese. No auto imports there, just everything else. A some point, despite tradition Chinese belligerence, China will have to bulk at the continuing damage done to their stock market. Trump can wait. 
There are always the doommongers who repeat we are on the edge of the next big crash and they are right because we are always on the edge but when the economy is booming, there is full employment and people are producing and creating wealth GDP can only rise and so, when conditions are right, those increases will find their way into stocks.

Daily charts >

 

[Indices]

8 hours ago, Mercury said:

In the end the important point here is if you are looking at any of my posts you have to recognise and understand my views on these things, which is the only reason I give them.

Quite right @Mercury, that was the exact same point I was trying to make about my own posts, perhaps I was just being a bit too subtle.

[TESLA]

Ha yes, just saw the chart. Referring back to the IG video further up the thread and the question that shares may well go up on a Musk resignation we have an answer. 

Brilliant guy and a brilliant thinker, great for ideas and startups but just a little too wayward to be the long-term guiding hand for a major auto company. 

[Indices]

5 hours ago, Mercury said:

Whatever caused the GBP spike: rumour, speculation whatever, Eur didn't follow suit and US indices are heading up (Nasdaq just off 7700).  IF this continues I doubt GBP and FTSE100 current direction is sustainable but let's see how it unfolds before passing judgement.  My biases remain unchanged at this juncture.

Quite right @Mercury, spikes on news may have no bearing on a weekly chart but I can assure they do on an intra-day chart, especially as they tend to blow the day plan completely out of the water, and so are of immense significance to those who trade on the lower time frames.

These spikes have become a regular occurrence since the Brexit vote and the FTSE and GBP charts are at the mercy any wayward word from any politician from either side of the channel, which is why I tend not even to open GBP charts these days, the FTSE being more subdued is more tolerable.

I have a curiosity in the long term charts but don't get too concerned with the technical aspects as they are so clearly fundamentally driven but my basic approach remains the same for all time frames, price takes on direction to find a new level, if there is an old level within reach it will probably go there.   

[Indices]

EU/GB compromise deal looks set on the Irish boarder question spikes FTSE down and GBP up.