Indices

[Caseynotes]

Dow and Nikkei take a peek over the parapet, Dax and Ftse looking on curiously, could shape up to being a strong up day, let's see.

[Caseynotes]

So after peeking over the parapet turns out the bears were waiting with a shotgun. After the fall Dow back up to take another look.

15 min chart;

[Caseynotes]

Here we are again, Dow poised for a break high. Mon and Tue saw the same thing but each time the London session pushed down strongly only to see the US session send price back up to toe the line.

Another round of G20 meetings starting tomorrow. Do they ever tire of those, why on earth do they need so many?

[Caseynotes]

Dow pushing higher on the US open, may be getting that break higher out of consolidation that's been looking likely since Monday.

[Kodiak]

DAX daily

 

For some reason i feel bullish (short term) 😰

I really dont know why😎

 

[Kodiak]

DAX 240 min

Tight trading range should break soon?

Hopefully to the upside?

 

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Kodiak

[Caseynotes]

@Kodiak, that's what we should be looking for, tight trading ranges can only lead to one thing and that's a breakout, don't mind which way, if the bulls win price will march up, bears win then it's down. But the important thing is price must leave that old battle ground in search of new resting orders, it takes extra special effort to drag price back into a rejected large time frame trading range.

Coming up to US close and the Dow break up looks clean so far so odds in favour of Dax following suit tomorrow am.

Dow H4 and Dax H1 hour charts;

Edited January 16, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

Dow looking to retest breakout, Nikkei testing support while Dax and Ftse eyes on Dow. China needing to increase stimulus, Philly Fed manu index on the calendar though US gov partial shutdown causing a backlog of delayed data.

[Caseynotes]

The Dow break looks for continuation, Nikkei tries to secure a similar break, Dax looks to be about to make a break of it's own while Ftse has some catching up to do.

Dow got a good boost yesterday around 8:30 pm on reports Trump was contemplating rolling back China tariffs, the market didn't care those rumours were refuted less than an hour later.

[Kodiak]

DAX Daily

Maybe something like this?

[Caseynotes]

yeah @Kodiak,  looks to be following in the footsteps of Dow.

[Caseynotes]

All 4 gaining with Dax breaking out past 10994, Ftse up over the 6941 resistance level and Dow waits for the US open. 

[Caseynotes]

Public holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Day) and the markets may well take a pause following the strong run up on Friday.

Daily charts;

Edited January 21, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

Pullback off the highs this morning. Dow short term support 24572, Dax held at 11136 and Ftse currently at 6972 with short term support at 6954.

1 hour charts.

[Caseynotes]

More political turmoil and China stocks sliding, others following suit. Reports that US will be formally requesting the extradition of Huawei executive Meng. 

[Caseynotes]

Ftse getting out of sorts this morning and only belatedly catching up. Dow and Dax bouncing between support and resistance.

15 min charts;

https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/groundhog.mp4?_=1

[Caseynotes]

A zoom out on the daily just to remind ourselves of the overall picture. Into the 4th week of up trend off the low, as is pointed out by Kyle in the APAC brief, where this new next higher low (if that's what it's to be) is placed is important.

The PA for Dow between Oct and the start of Dec was large range and the bulls have worked hard to get price back into that range, can they keep it there?

[Caseynotes]

Dow and Dax attempting to break up past overnight resistance after retesting the recent low this morning. Ftse may look to follow.

1 hour charts;

[trade247]

this is the davos chat for those interested

 

[Caseynotes]

As mentioned this morning re Dow Oct to early Dec trading range, bulls so far keeping Dow back in the box after a bear challenge to support level, tomorrow should see a try for higher before another low test.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

ECB rate decision today at 12:45 and Draghi presser at 1:30.

Dow poised midway between daily chart support and resistance (orange). Waiting for the open for direction confirmation.

1 hour charts;

[Caseynotes]

German manufacturing PMI falls below 50 signalling contraction, first time since Nov 2014  (8:30 am,  49.9 vs 51.5 expected).  Dax rises on the news -  why. Because it is so fully intent on shadowing the Dow.

1 minute charts;

 

[Caseynotes]

Dow going a bit nuts today, firstly working it's way up to resistance then a big push down through support on US trade talks member stating US and China were 'miles and miles apart' then reverses again on US PMIs beat.

[Caseynotes]

Dow positioned for a possible break higher today. German Ifo Business Climate data 9:00am.

4 hour charts;

[Kodiak]

DAX daily

Lot of resistance around 11 700 ish

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Both Dow and Dax have made the break up through their respective daily chart resistance levels, Ftse still in the doldrums and Nikkei has some catching up to do. Early in the day for the US session but it's still a Friday so I wouldn't expect price to run away with it.

4 hour charts; 

[Caseynotes]

Dow and Dax finished the day sat on the daily resistance (orange) having flown over then under and back up to. Not surprising there was a lack of enthusiasm for pushing too much on week end.  

Easy to see how those precise levels, which were drawn on Monday morning's chart, were well respected in today's price action by taking a look at the 15 min charts below.

Using a few precise levels is a far better option than loading your chart with scores of mediocre ones.   

[Caseynotes]

So you might be looking at the Dow and Dax daily chart and thinking could this be a stop run before a big down move? Though it's possible I don't think it's probable.

Concentrating on the Dax, price put in a high at 11279 and reversed on Jan 20th, went down and reversed again at 11000 which is old support turned resistance turned support again. Then back up to poke through 11279 and fall back.

If you entered short on the 20th/21st your stop was just above 11279. A stop run is where large players push price through stops to (in this case) force holders of short contracts out of the market and so make those short contracts available to the market. The level becomes a short contracts accumulation zone. Once the trap has been sprung the large players are feverishly taking up all available short contracts which gives rise to large bear bars on the smaller time frames.

But if we look at the smaller time frames on Dow and Dax the bear bars are not convincing. Compare the daily and hourly charts below, the second pair is of a successful stop run in eurusd and see how it just doesn't compare to the current Dow and Dax charts. The scramble to pick up the short contracts won't always show up on the same daily bar if it happens late in the day but should show up on the hourly bars after the trap has been triggered.

 

[Caseynotes]

New week and Ftse looks to continue on it's own path out of sync with the other three. Positive spin expected on the next round of US - China trade talks and US FOMC on Wednesday and US NFP and manu PMI on Friday.

Friday's daily bar Dax and Dow were strong bull so automatically presuming the same to follow today unless proved otherwise so waiting for today's daily bar to turn blue then looking for long entries.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dax barely moved at all yesterday while Dow made a half hearted attempt to check the tight range low. The markets not finding any real incentive to go lower at the moment nor incentive to drive higher with the FOMC statement coming up tomorrow and NFP on Friday. China's market made gains and looks to have had a knock on affect on the Nikkei this morning which may offer a lift to the others today.