Jump to content


Recommended Posts

As quoted from John Kicklighters blog today,  "Given that US indices – a proxy for risk trends – are still on pace for the best month’s performance in years".

Dow well over 5% gain for this month so far and as John states is heading to be the best performing month literally for years. Certainly not a month to spend attempting shorts.

Link to post
  • Replies 5.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

fair go, the failure to break through the blue rectangle was crucial for further downside. Now looking for resistance (sellers to step back in) and the most likely area is just before the red 29400 de

That is the 50% retrace for  the Dow and S&P. 

Interesting S&P daily shaping up 👇

Posted Images

Just looking at the Dax weekly chart and the bulls must be looking at that wall ahead with a certain amount of trepidation. Probably thinking to themselves they'll be needing some help from Dow if they're to break through that.

FOMC and a trade dispute break through together could do it.


Link to post

US and China trade officials meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. Steven Mnuchin says that if China presents enough trade concessions to Trump, there is a chance that the administration may seek to lift all tariffs.

US delivered a new set of proposals last month now  Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is in Washington with their response. China is facing added urgency to end the trade spat amid the weakest domestic growth since 2009.




Edited by Caseynotes
Link to post

in regards to parliamentary amendments later today

"In theory, if any amendments pass other than Brady’s, it’s not good news for May -- though it’s important to note that Tuesday’s votes are not of the binding type May lost earlier this month when her deal was rejected. The Cooper plan to delay Brexit is the one that has the most potential to derail May’s strategy. Meanwhile if the Brady amendment on the backstop secures a majority, May will consider that a mandate to try to negotiate again with the EU."

Link to post

Dax remains stagnant, Dow drifting in tight range as does Nikkei and Ftse continues to be reactive to Brexit headlines.

Today the FOMC rate decision, statement and presser starting at 7:00 pm, also today possible news on US-China talks and more earnings data releases MS, FB, Tesla, Boeing, etc (see last post in linked thread.

Daily charts; 



Link to post

The Boeing beat lifts Dow to complete the leg up to the top of the recent tight range seen on the daily in this mornings post.

Concerned chatter on twitter on the possibility the FOMC statement this evening won't be as dovish as the market had hoped and has already priced in.

Hourly Dow chart;


Link to post

Interesting increasing disconnect between US indices and Europe, UK and Japan. The FOMC boost yesterday propelled Dow through resistance where the others were halted. Dax still reeling from the German finance minister's down grade of the GDP forecast from 1.8% to just 1% for this year, Ftse with the ongoing Brexit concerns and Nikkei presumably waiting for the US-China trade talks result.

Trump meeting with China’s Vice Premier Liu He today at 20:00 GMT.

Daily charts;


Link to post

Dow breakout to the upside confirmed yesterday while the other three remain trapped. Dax rechecked the bottom of the range. Ftse falling back into line but refusing at the 7000 fence.

China stocks rise in spite of falling PMI figures.

Daily charts;


Link to post

Big beat on Friday's NFP but the shine taken off by a decrease in the Average Hourly Earnings figure.

US Manu PMI was also a beat at 56.6 vs  54.1 expected while the report also states that the overall US economy grew for the 117th consecutive month.


Weekly charts and Dow now well out of recent consolidation and heading for next resistance at 26069 while the others remain capped with strong resistance immediately overhead.



Link to post

New week new levels.

Dow with overhead resistance at 25189 and support at 24322, looking for a break and upside continuation.

Dax sitting mid range between 11047 and 11321 so looking for a retest of either.

Ftse held at 7032 and looking to break after a strong run up last week.

Nikkei held at 20967 and also looking to break.

Not much in the way of data releases this week, China public holiday all week.



Link to post

Dax lead the charge out, Dow and Ftse followed. Dow back into clear space but Dax and Ftse closing in on their respective weekly chart resistance levels. If Dow can keep going will be interesting to see if Dax and Ftse can follow.

4 hr charts;


Link to post

Dow spent yesterday defining a new range and very graphically demonstrates what drives price. Price is driven to find buyers if there is a surfit of sellers and visa versa, at the bottom of the range an excess of buyers forced price to find sellers who had congregated at the top of the range, once there, price found an excess of sellers and so needed to find buyers who were congregated at the bottom of the range. You can never be sure 100% where buyers or sellers are waiting but a best guess is at a prior support or resistance level because it's an obvious place to hang out with like minded types, why buy higher up when you can likely get it cheaper, why sell lower when you can likely get a higher price.

Indicators have nothing to do with this reality, the only indicator really worth having is an order book that isn't spoofed or dark pooled. So which way will price move next. Until a break it will continue the orderly retesting of the current high and low. If it breaks lower it will most likely head to the next support level, if it breaks higher it will most likely head to the next resistance level. Gauging direction is that simple, the tricky part is the actual trade execution.

UK bank rate decision today, not much expected but the usual stoking of Project Fear.


Link to post

Following the early morning post Dow and Dax both broke lower while Ftse held. Dow finding support around 25186 and Dax, following the down graded growth forecasts has dropped all the way to the daily chart support level 11098.


Link to post

Market correction yesterday on the realisation that not only did the recent trade talks produce nothing but that there is little hope of anything before the March 1 ending of the 90 day truce. Bets laid on expecting a better result were taken off the table.

Thought for the day. For a year now the markets have been ruled by the China/US trade dispute's ups and downs but there are those who will tell you otherwise, that it's all down to technical corrections, or that a top or a bottom is in or whatever. Probably the most important attribute a new trader must learn real fast is how to spot BS, this is difficult because the new trader doesn't realise they are completely surrounded by it, this profession above most others attracts the BS'ers. Probably 80% of related content on instagram and twitter is BS. People calling the market, if they are ever right they crow loudly, when they are wrong they go quiet and wait for people to forget before starting it all over again. You need to block it all out and concentrate on reactions rather than predictions and having a plan for whatever the market does.

Back to the charts and several support levels were taken out but Dow looking to find support at the top of the prior bull flag. Dax is more uncertain with the stream of poor economic data releases, fresh data due today so we'll see how that goes. Nikkei still looking for the buyers having not found them at the recent lows around 20401. And Ftse still holding up well and remains in touch with the longer term resistance level at 7146.





Link to post

Hi all - we have a Brexit round table today (Friday 8th Feb) which unfortunately won't be live, but we will be able to publish the video afterwards. This will be with Simon French from Panmure Gordon, and Robert Oulds from Bruges Group. It should be a great discussion, and if you have any questions you wanted to put to the panel please add a comment and make sure to tag me with the @ symbol. 

Link to post

"You need to block it all out and concentrate on reactions rather than predictions and having a plan for whatever the market does. "

Great line Caseynotes.

One reason why I think Macro trading is flawed - based on making predictions and when price goes against you, you can remain wedded to your position and load up with even more 'bargains'. God punishes those who pretend to knowledge and think they know the future.

Anyway, what do you think about the changes in IG's funding costs? Will it alter how you trade? I should start a different thread I guess.




Link to post

That's right @Justinian,  probably number one cause of failure is hanging on to losing trades. It's not even necessarily about the money, it's more to do with not wanting to admit you're wrong. There is a noticeable trend whereby the new trader starts out making predictions on the market then realising they can't do it, next step is to try and find someone who can and that blows even more money. Unless you're getting illegal insider information from an investment bank think to follow the market rather than trying to second guess it all the time.

Major turns happen at major support/resistance levels or on major news, once a new direction is clear look for a place to climb aboard. 

Increased margin means keeping more in the account but not affecting trading otherwise, I never sail right on the edge anyway.

Link to post

Hi Casey, I'm not referring to the ESMA-related margin increases. This is actually funding costs I'm talking about.


Changes to overnight funding rates

From 4 February, we’re changing the way we calculate overnight funding on shares and indices. Whereas the interest rate used to be based on the currency of the trade, it will now be based on the currency of the underlying instrument.

This could affect you positively or negatively – see below for reference.

Example: Wall Street

If you trade on Wall Street in GBP, you’d previously pay overnight funding based on the GBP interest rate. From 4 February, you’ll pay funding based on the USD rate instead.

So if you bought £2 per point at 24,000, giving you a notional value of £48,000, this is how your funding charges would change:

  Interbank rate1 IG rate2 Daily cost
GBP 0.73% 3.23% £4.31
USD 2.52% 5.02% £6.69
Difference: £-2.38

If you sold £2 per point at 24,000, giving you a notional value of £48,000, this is how your funding charges would change:

  Interbank rate1 IG rate2 Daily cost
GBP 0.73% 1.77% £2.36
USD 2.52% -0.02% -£0.03
Difference: £2.39

1 ‘Rate’ refers to the 1-month interbank funding rate (eg LIBOR for the UK). Rates correct as of 14 January 2019.

2 ‘IG rate’ refers our total funding charge, which is 2.5% on top of the interbank rate. We debit your account for a long position, and credit your account for a short position (if the interbank funding rate is greater than 2.5%, or greater than 3% on mini/micro CFD contracts). Find out more here.

Link to post

4 Hour charts and looking for Dow continuation of the uptrend with a test of the H4 resistance 25156 and then on to the daily chart resistance 25439. Ftse in a similar situation, UK GDP and manu prod data at 9:30.

Dax and Nikkei with similar looking charts, Dax suffering a stream of poor data releases last week while Nikkei pulled into the Asian slump. Japan public holiday today. 

Not much on the Euro calendar this week, if Dow can make progress will be looking for Dax to follow.


Link to post

Dow stalled yesterday after initially pushing up though 25156 from yesterday's post. Nikkei had a strong push up overnight and Dax has worked it's way into clear space while Ftse has moved up to resistance.

Today will be looking again for Dow to push up through H4 resistance currently at 25244 and for Dax and Ftse to follow.

As ever though, a failure at resistance usually initiates a test of support.

H1 charts;


Link to post

IG 'Trade of the Week' Dow moves up through the daily chart resistance level  25439 mentioned in Monday's post, may see a retest of that today. The others following on with Ftse back up through the weekly resistance level for a second attempt on 7188. Dax making hard work of it and still has a lot of ground to make up to reach resistance at 11387. Nikkei finally breaks up through 20967.

Daily charts;


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 18/06/21 14:34
  • Posts

    • and Gold Puked at 10 year resistance line  
    • ''The front page of tomorrow's Daily Telegraph: 'Scrap school Covid tests, says Oxford jab pioneer'.''   The constant testing of asymptomatic people is a complete waste of time and money and with almost all positives being false cause nothing but chaos. Weapons grade stupidity right from the start.   Meanwhile don't forget SAGE predicted 1200 deaths a day for the June summer surge (try 7). I posted the SAGE prediction back in March in the Wuflu thread, called it total garbage even then.   datatosee.com  @dontbetyet 2h ''Where we are at against Fergusons 1,200 deaths a day in a summer wave. With no real vaccinations in January and it peaked at 1,285 how can 1,200 be realistic in anyway shape or form. Even if we had 0 vaccines still, it is summer and more people with prior infections.''     .
    • wow this is causing a storm (only a year too late). surely he's not going to last a week.   ''But if lockdown saves just one life.........''   ''Seriously... what the hell did he think would happen, when the only illnesses they cared about was and still is Covid!? Deaths of any other reason are an extra boost to their Covid figures! He should be known as the ‘secretary of state for death’!''    
  • Create New...