Jump to content


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 5.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts


That is the 50% retrace for  the Dow and S&P. 

It's the opposite, I don't think I'm cut out for day trading.  I still would have been better off keeping a position open from Christmas, even now.  I zoomed out to the day chart and the overall pictu

Posted Images

Here we are again, Dow poised for a break high. Mon and Tue saw the same thing but each time the London session pushed down strongly only to see the US session send price back up to toe the line.

Another round of G20 meetings starting tomorrow. Do they ever tire of those, why on earth do they need so many?


Link to post

@Kodiak, that's what we should be looking for, tight trading ranges can only lead to one thing and that's a breakout, don't mind which way, if the bulls win price will march up, bears win then it's down. But the important thing is price must leave that old battle ground in search of new resting orders, it takes extra special effort to drag price back into a rejected large time frame trading range.

Coming up to US close and the Dow break up looks clean so far so odds in favour of Dax following suit tomorrow am.

Dow H4 and Dax H1 hour charts;



Edited by Caseynotes
Link to post

Dow looking to retest breakout, Nikkei testing support while Dax and Ftse eyes on Dow. China needing to increase stimulus, Philly Fed manu index on the calendar though US gov partial shutdown causing a backlog of delayed data.


Link to post

The Dow break looks for continuation, Nikkei tries to secure a similar break, Dax looks to be about to make a break of it's own while Ftse has some catching up to do.

Dow got a good boost yesterday around 8:30 pm on reports Trump was contemplating rolling back China tariffs, the market didn't care those rumours were refuted less than an hour later.


Link to post

A zoom out on the daily just to remind ourselves of the overall picture. Into the 4th week of up trend off the low, as is pointed out by Kyle in the APAC brief, where this new next higher low (if that's what it's to be) is placed is important.

The PA for Dow between Oct and the start of Dec was large range and the bulls have worked hard to get price back into that range, can they keep it there?



Link to post

As mentioned this morning re Dow Oct to early Dec trading range, bulls so far keeping Dow back in the box after a bear challenge to support level, tomorrow should see a try for higher before another low test.




Edited by Caseynotes
Link to post

German manufacturing PMI falls below 50 signalling contraction, first time since Nov 2014  (8:30 am,  49.9 vs 51.5 expected).  Dax rises on the news -  why. Because it is so fully intent on shadowing the Dow.

1 minute charts;



Link to post

Both Dow and Dax have made the break up through their respective daily chart resistance levels, Ftse still in the doldrums and Nikkei has some catching up to do. Early in the day for the US session but it's still a Friday so I wouldn't expect price to run away with it.

4 hour charts; 


Link to post

Dow and Dax finished the day sat on the daily resistance (orange) having flown over then under and back up to. Not surprising there was a lack of enthusiasm for pushing too much on week end.  

Easy to see how those precise levels, which were drawn on Monday morning's chart, were well respected in today's price action by taking a look at the 15 min charts below.

Using a few precise levels is a far better option than loading your chart with scores of mediocre ones.   


Link to post

So you might be looking at the Dow and Dax daily chart and thinking could this be a stop run before a big down move? Though it's possible I don't think it's probable.

Concentrating on the Dax, price put in a high at 11279 and reversed on Jan 20th, went down and reversed again at 11000 which is old support turned resistance turned support again. Then back up to poke through 11279 and fall back.

If you entered short on the 20th/21st your stop was just above 11279. A stop run is where large players push price through stops to (in this case) force holders of short contracts out of the market and so make those short contracts available to the market. The level becomes a short contracts accumulation zone. Once the trap has been sprung the large players are feverishly taking up all available short contracts which gives rise to large bear bars on the smaller time frames.

But if we look at the smaller time frames on Dow and Dax the bear bars are not convincing. Compare the daily and hourly charts below, the second pair is of a successful stop run in eurusd and see how it just doesn't compare to the current Dow and Dax charts. The scramble to pick up the short contracts won't always show up on the same daily bar if it happens late in the day but should show up on the hourly bars after the trap has been triggered.



Link to post

New week and Ftse looks to continue on it's own path out of sync with the other three. Positive spin expected on the next round of US - China trade talks and US FOMC on Wednesday and US NFP and manu PMI on Friday.

Friday's daily bar Dax and Dow were strong bull so automatically presuming the same to follow today unless proved otherwise so waiting for today's daily bar to turn blue then looking for long entries.

Daily charts;


Link to post

Dax barely moved at all yesterday while Dow made a half hearted attempt to check the tight range low. The markets not finding any real incentive to go lower at the moment nor incentive to drive higher with the FOMC statement coming up tomorrow and NFP on Friday. China's market made gains and looks to have had a knock on affect on the Nikkei this morning which may offer a lift to the others today. 


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Create New...