Indices

[Caseynotes]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Seems to have gone?  I still don't use Twitter.  Just realized that the first time I saw someone using Facebook was 12 years ago and I still don't use it.  I'm getting old and useless.

The thing is you can have just incoming, follow who you like, you don't have to be part of any group and news updates are usually faster than msm outlets.  (Tweetdeck)

 

yes his stuff auto erases, he is an interesting follow, a rich trader (was rich before started trading though), has stage 4 bone cancer and has been charting the progression of his cancer for the last 5 years (this will probably be his last), tweets and posts vids everyday, loads of tips and tricks.

 

[dmedin]

Two perspectives on the indices from two charts.

The daily chart indicates a top (with the benefit of hindsight), where you could have tried your hand at a short with a stop just above 29405, thus limited risk.  Then the gap low with two tests of the window.  But sometimes price will test the window and the resume the uptrend.  In this case it was tested twice before dropping back down.  The ideal action then would have been to wait and not trade until price decisively closed beneath or above the window.

15 minute chart is absolutely ideal, but you rarely see something as perfect as this.

Edited February 1, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

Dow trying for support at the weekly chart support level (red) 28119, Dow the same at 12947 while the S&P at 3214.

8 virus cases confirmed in the US on Saturday, so far stats suggest the coronavirus has a higher infection rate but lower death rate compared to SARS.

(themarketear)

[Caseynotes]

On 01/02/2020 at 21:11, dmedin said:

Two perspectives on the indices from two charts.

looks like flipping, to TA or not to TA. The problem with TA is that it doesn't drive the market. The hedge and pension fund managers who control billions spend hundreds of 000s on research ever year, are they really spending that on a bloke down in the basement drawing lines on a chart and looking for patterns? or are they more like the weather forecasts and use computer modelling to gauge the affect on the price of different potential scenarios so that when x happens they expect market price to go to y, I wonder.

Heikin Ashi charts are great if you have a problem with flipping, the noise reduction encourages the user to stay in a trend longer. The M15 HA chart above is of course related to the daily candle and looking back that daily candle is not really so rare, there is no reason not to try to short on a correction but the ride is usually less than half the distance compared to picking a bottom and riding the uptrend up.

[Caseynotes]

Tentative start to the London session.

Dax and Dow M15 charts. 

[Caseynotes]

CITI Head of Equity Strategy: "Buy the corona-dip."

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

looks like flipping, to TA or not to TA

 

Well it's my only option, unless I'm going to just 'buy and hold' an S&P 500 ETF (or maybe a selection of ETFs).  I don't have the time or expertise to analyse a particular market or stock in depth, so I have to rely on TA if I'm going to be able to do this. 

Edited February 3, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

Well it's my only option, unless I'm going to just 'buy and hold' an S&P 500 ETF (or maybe a selection of ETFs).  I don't have the time or expertise to analyse a particular market or stock in depth, so I have to rely on TA if I'm going to be able to do this. 

well you could say buying dips in an uptrend is using TA but to me it's using price action studies on appropriate chart structure. The problem with TA is where do you stop, once you find everything works sometimes then you end up with so many layers of it absolutely every handle is covered as a possible turning point.

The main consideration are the stats, because dip buying (in an uptrend) allows relatively tight stops (when you are wrong it's obvious early on you are wrong) so a win rate of around 35 - 40% is enough.

[HPbrand]

I am going to put myself on the line for this one. I am betting on Dow to shoot up today or tomorrow. But only a short term visit.

This is based purely on psychology and a bit of TA.

[dmedin]

19 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

I am going to put myself on the line for this one. I am betting on Dow to shoot up today or tomorrow. But only a short term visit.

This is based purely on psychology and a bit of TA.

It could shoot up quite a lot and still not look like a particularly strong long position, unless you're going for a very short-term position.

[HPbrand]

15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

It could shoot up quite a lot and still not look like a particularly strong long position, unless you're going for a very short-term position.

By short term visit, I mean liquidate as soon as target hits because Dow may drop a bit for people like Mr Nenner to get excited about. As of yesterday night, at least 400-500 points up is quite possible and I think likely.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow starting to pick up on the US open.

M15 charts:

[dmedin]

PMI is a beat, buy the dip 🥳

Edited February 3, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

PMI is a beat, buy the dip 🥳

50.9, out of contraction and back into expansion (over 50).

[dmedin]

Sinking again ... that was a short rally

[HPbrand]

Are people on here generally long term investors or short term traders (scalpers)?

[bluebird4211]

I would say a bit of both

[HPbrand]

It looks like a trap going back up this second time. I'm joining Mr Nenner, or worse, Chris "The Doomsday for Last 10 Years" Martenson for a short term drop.

[Caseynotes]

25 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

It looks like a trap going back up this second time. I'm joining Mr Nenner, or worse, Chris "The Doomsday for Last 10 Years" Martenson for a short term drop.

The virus is turning out to be a lot less deadly than first feared while global econ data continues to improve.

 

[dmedin]

Seems like all we have to go on is guessing and hindsight.

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Seems like all we have to go on is guessing and hindsight.

or you could try actual price action on real chart structure as in look for price to start trending (on your preferred time frame and better still if matches a higher time frame) then look for a normal pullback then look to join on trend continuation. Most trends are made up of 3 or 4 waves so there is a good change you can catch at least 2 swings up (or down).

[HPbrand]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

or you could try actual price action on real chart structure as in look for price to start trending (on your preferred time frame and better still if matches a higher time frame) then look for a normal pullback then look to join on trend continuation.

Or visit the Waddesdon Manor at weekends hoping to bump into Lord Rothschild to ask him the market direction he has planned for us.

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Or visit the Waddesdon Manor at weekends hoping to bump into Lord Rothschild to ask him the market direction he has planned for us.

Correct, your bias, opinion and predictions are useless, just follow the leader.

[HPbrand]

15 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

The virus is turning out to be a lot less deadly than first feared while global econ data continues to improve. 

Do you trade longer term or do you open/close positions daily/weekly? This is what I do, so it may differ from your trading setup.

[Caseynotes]

US indices looking to continue the build off support, no major news today. US Democrat party caucus voting started in Iowa and Biden scraps through at the last minute by scrounging votes. Obama and Clinton have already started on their 'shoot down Bernie' campaign. 

[Caseynotes]

10 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Do you trade longer term or do you open/close positions daily/weekly? This is what I do, so it may differ from your trading setup.

I prefer day trading so maybe 2 or 3 trades a day, maybe more maybe none. But chart structure gives the same information no matter what the time frame, Simple test is to remove the time info and try to guess the chart, it's impossible. So if the structure is currently compromised look elsewhere or wait, when the chart starts a range expansion phase (trend) look for an opportunity to get aboard. 

[HPbrand]

I am confident with this Dow short. Going all in and holding for a few days if need be.

 

p.s. Hopefully I am not Mr Nenner number 2.

Edited February 4, 2020 by HPbrand

[dmedin]

Looooooooong the indices 🐮🥳

[Caseynotes]

8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Looooooooong the indices 🐮🥳

H1 Dax and Dow charts;

 

[HPbrand]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Looooooooong the indices 🐮🥳

😄😄 You are using me as a reference to trade against!