Is spread betting for fools?

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

What would you all advise or have advised?

I think for anyone not to sure of in-trade management the best solution is to concentrate on identifying good entries and entry execution and just fire a bracket order at it  so a market order entry with approp stop loss and a take profit at 2:1 and let it sink or swim. You need to get your entries right first, later you can work on how best to manage it.

[Caseynotes]

8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Also^^^^

If this pattern is a Descending Wedge, when should I get out, if at all?  Is it likely to go back up?  What is the statistic?

The strongest line on the chart is the horizontal support line, horizontals are always stronger than diagonals and for a short the most recent low is the FTA (first trouble area) where you should consider bailing if price can't swiftly break through.

[nit2wynit]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

The strongest line on the chart is the horizontal support line, horizontals are always stronger than diagonals and for a short the most recent low is the FTA (first trouble area) where you should consider bailing if price can't swiftly break through.

Yes I see that.  Support at around 1419.  I have it marked.  Struggling now at 1421 area.  I'll let it fail now if it goes up.  Will cost me nothing but time; which is more valuable than money

I've changed as I should have, from making money, to Not losing any.

It's taken a while, but a bit at a time, it's going in.  Thank you for continually taking the time Casey.  Really appreciate it.

However, I anticipate more losses to come before it's in my bones.

[nit2wynit]

I took the £25 when it hit the bottom, anticipating a Reversal back to Resistance.  Used my £25 win as a Risk of £10 per point for a 2pt Stop for £20 going back up.

I'm not at all confident about this one.  Mistake?

 

[nit2wynit]

I suppose my 1st mistake is asking if it is a Mistake?  and not being Confident.

I got out for £2.60 profit.  It's simply not moving quick enough.

On to the next chart.

Ahhh dear.

 

Edited July 11, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Caseynotes]

19 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I'm not at all confident about this one.  Mistake?

Yes.

Of course, if you have no confidence it's because you have no real reasoning or validation for taking the trade and if you don't have that how will you know when the trade idea becomes invalid, you've gone back to just punting 🤨

When on demo every time you get away with it reinforces bad choices and when you don't get away with it it's just forgotten because there are no real consequences, and then you go back to live and suddenly there are very real  consequences.

Edited July 11, 2019 by Caseynotes

[nit2wynit]

But I have 80% success on the Demo Casey!

Anyway, Gold, I figured it's foolish to Go long while it's going in a Down trend so went straight back in at 1418 to Short.

Took £10 off me.  Time for a break.  Still £20 up

[Caseynotes]

 

8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

But I have 80% success on the Demo Casey!

Anyway, Gold, I figured it's foolish to Go long while it's going in a Down trend so went straight back in at 1418 to Short.

Took £10 off me.  Time for a break.  Still £20 up

How many times have you been round this block, demo - live - demo - live ...,  success - failure - success - failure ....

Again, there is no such thing as success on demo, not 80% not any %.

[nit2wynit]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

How many times have you been round this block, demo - live - demo - live ...,  success - failure - success - failure ....

Casey I've not been on the Demo for 3 weeks........I don't keep going back to the Demo!

But 80% success rate must count for something?  That's not 1 time i tried the Demo, that 2 months.  Fear aside.  Same charts, same Instruments, Same 2k account.

I've proved time and time again.  Not sure why you have such a stance on it.  The only difference as we've discussed is the Emotion attached. ergo; get over that, then proving success Live should theoretically be the same as the Demo.

Like I've said, Fear, Emotion aside.  I've clearly not got a hold of my emotion Live.  Especially when it comes to FOMO.

Maybe i was lucky this morning on the Gold chart.  Maybe i didn't notice the down trend, or the consolidating wedge.  Unfortunate that I changed from £20pp to £6 otherwise I'd be looking at closer to £100 win, but i still would have only risked 1pt at Resistance level.  I couldn't take another £20 or £40 loss.  So now the stakes are smaller.


No idea where Gold is going so going to leave it now.

Cheers.

[dmedin]

Gold is in an uptrend so you'd be wiser to use dips as an opportunity to buy.

[nit2wynit]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Gold is in an uptrend so you'd be wiser to use dips as an opportunity to buy.

It has been, but stuck at around previous resistance of 1425 for 12 hours!  I no longer assume it's an Up Trend.

Speculation suggests another spike soon.  Others say a Drop.  i think at this point it's a waiting game till it's proves a direction.

How are you doing?  Making progress?

Edited July 11, 2019 by nit2wynit

[nit2wynit]

Jeeeez too busy typing.  Anyone catch that drop?? :O

 

Knew it was there somewhere.

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Casey I've not been on the Demo for 3 weeks........I don't keep going back to the Demo!

But 80% success rate must count for something?  That's not 1 time i tried the Demo, that 2 months.  Fear aside.  Same charts, same Instruments, Same 2k account.

I've proved time and time again.  Not sure why you have such a stance on it.  The only difference as we've discussed is the Emotion attached. ergo; get over that, then proving success Live should theoretically be the same as the Demo.

Like I've said, Fear, Emotion aside.  I've clearly not got a hold of my emotion Live.  Especially when it comes to FOMO.

Maybe i was lucky this morning on the Gold chart.  Maybe i didn't notice the down trend, or the consolidating wedge.  Unfortunate that I changed from £20pp to £6 otherwise I'd be looking at closer to £100 win, but i still would have only risked 1pt at Resistance level.  I couldn't take another £20 or £40 loss.  So now the stakes are smaller.


No idea where Gold is going so going to leave it now.

Cheers.

80% success on demo proves nothing, 100% failure on live proves everything which is why I have this stance. 

Entering trades with no real reason or rules based plan is just punting and will fail (see the connection?).

Emotions can't yet be surgically removed, they are yours to keep, which is why you need a rules based plan (full circle).

[nit2wynit]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Entering trades with no real reason or rules based plan is just punting and will fail (see the connection?).

I've thanked you for your input and advice, so confused now.

I have had reasons.  I have had a plan.  I don't just look at a chart and go Buy/Sell.

I've told you many times.  I have a bad habit of anticipating Reversals.  Yesterday was a prime example.

However, i've been 100% right on Gold this morning, but hesitated.

It's just dropped.

I now anticipate another rally, but I could be wrong.  I'm in 1pp Long.  3pt stop.

Edited July 11, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

I've thanked you for your input and advice, so confused now.

I have had reasons.  I have had a plan.  I don't just look at a chart and go Buy/Sell.

I've told you many times.  I have a bad habit of anticipating Reversals.  Yesterday was a prime example.

However, i've been 100% right on Gold this morning, but hesitated.

It's just dropped.

Ah right, so you knew what the data release at 1:30 was going to be then, why didn't you tell the rest of us what the figures were going to be?

[nit2wynit]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Ah right, so you knew what the data release at 1:30 was going to be then, why didn't you tell the rest of us what the figures were going to be?

huh?

 

I don't know what you're talking about.  I just look at charts patterns.

What's happened Casey?  you appear to have turned Sarcastic and Hostile.

Edited July 11, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Caseynotes]

The sudden drop at exactly 13:30 had nothing to do with your chart patterns, it was due to the figures in the US data release. 🤣🤣

[nit2wynit]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

The sudden drop at exactly 13:30 had nothing to do with your chart patterns, it was due to the figures in the US data release

Oh, i see.  and you think I'm tying to come across as a Prophet?? lol

[nit2wynit]

My General Feeling it was going to Drop was because it has been for over 12hours.

As for Data releases, it's something I should be aware of.

 

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

My General Feeling it was going to Drop was because it has been for over 12hours.

As for Data releases, it's something I should be aware of.

 

Yes, major news events can cause very sudden and major disruption to order flow, they can cause sudden reversals and start new long term trends. They are times when spread widens, volatility increases and liquidity can dry up which is why many retail traders avoid trading around them altogether. You should certainly know when they are due, I check the econ calendar every day and try to point out the major ones in the daily dashboard thread in the mornings.

[nit2wynit]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I check the econ calendar every day and try to point out the major ones in the daily dashboard thread in the mornings.

I'll add this to my To Do List then.

 

That must also explain the spike yesterday also?

Thanks.

Edited July 11, 2019 by nit2wynit

[dmedin]

4 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

It has been, but stuck at around previous resistance of 1425 for 12 hours!  I no longer assume it's an Up Trend.

Speculation suggests another spike soon.  Others say a Drop.  i think at this point it's a waiting game till it's proves a direction.

How are you doing?  Making progress?

Very badly.

You'd think I'd learn. 

 

[nit2wynit]

36 minutes ago, dmedin said:

You'd think I'd learn. 

So long as we all do.....eventually.

Up £45 today on Gold.  Bit it's been a hard slog.  Not long now to make up the 1k I've lost :O

 

[Caseynotes]

22 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Very badly.

You'd think I'd learn. 

 

And there is plenty to learn, unfortunately many think you can learn it all from the charts but that's just not the case, you need a framework that can be applied to the charts.

I have recommended this before in the Technical Analysis thread because over the years it is the most concise and up to date learning packages I've seen.

Of special importance are the bottom half articles that make up the Study Guide section plus the video on Order Flow from the Lessons section.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15c3rN15rkXldY8Te3GDG4NG7noaaoikydOoZQlElwXw/preview?pru=AAABaf3_sQE*PXVDTaKtvm5VtQcvpBug2w

[nit2wynit]

Actually i just want to say.........


What a Relief!!!!!!  Trading Small!!!! I know you all said it from the start, but you'll never understand the difference it makes to The Fear until you try it.

I can enter trades only risking 3-5£ now feeling confident with the direction.  Even if it's only for a couple quid here and there, it becomes more about being right on the chart than the profit.

This little remark could be short lived though, i'm well aware.  Expect me to post my losses tomorrow.! :O

[Caseynotes]

7 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

On the M15 I see a spike and bull channel and now consolidation, I would box off the upper and lower reaches of the consolidation  and wait for a break which might be in either direction. In that situation the break lower to retest the top of the spike has the slightly higher probability.

 

Just noticed we got our retest of the top of the spike and has since tested lower.

[nit2wynit]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Just noticed we got our retest of the top of the spike and has since tested lower.

Yes, i have been in a small trade of £1pp since 1410.  I think I was up about £8 at it's lowest.  Currently £3.50 . 

I've adjusted my stop to not take a loss.  I'll let it run.

Concerned about letting it run into the changeover without a G Stop.

Edited July 11, 2019 by nit2wynit

[nit2wynit]

What I've learned today about my mistakes yesterday is the Stop.  Clearly reversals in the trend need a good 5pt average to oscillate; I was only allowing 2 stops, but only if I'm playing the Long game, which i don't plan to do; though may need to.  While I've stated my Stops weren't the problem, but my direction, it's still clearly obvious that I'd need to risk £100 @ £20 pp. to continue in any trend for a while.

At £1pp I've risked £5.  But made £50 with several small trades only risking £5 each time.

I've no idea where it's going next so getting out before the Changeover at 10pm.

Profit today on Gold.  £50.  Risk each time.  £5.

11 trades in total. 

8 x Winners = £84.52

3 x Losers = £33.55 Bigger losses as i was staking £20pp.

Clearly the ratio needs to improve.  I'm hoping it will as i nail down the appropriate Instruments to trade, and the price to trade them.

 

Edited July 11, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Guest pipe_wrangler]

@Caseynotes I read this entire thread this afternoon. You deserve a medal for the knowledge, patience and outstanding sarcasm that you have given to this thread. 

That is all.

 

 

[nit2wynit]

1 hour ago, pipe_wrangler said:

@Caseynotes I read this entire thread this afternoon. You deserve a medal for the knowledge, patience and outstanding sarcasm that you have given to this thread. 

That is all.

lol.

Agreed.