Is spread betting for fools?

[nit2wynit]

6 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

I have recommended this before in the Technical Analysis thread because over the years it is the most concise and up to date learning packages I've seen.

I will personally make it my goal to study them over the weekend, moving forward.

[Caseynotes]

7 hours ago, pipe_wrangler said:

@Caseynotes I read this entire thread this afternoon. You deserve a medal for the knowledge, patience and outstanding sarcasm that you have given to this thread. 

That is all.

 

 

Thank you @pipe_wrangler, I do endeavour to push the boundaries in all the fields you mention and more. I've found that when trying to convey a theme which is new to the recipient repetition is boring and usually ignored and sometimes a more interesting tack is helpful.  

[Guest davidbrister]

22 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

I took the £25 when it hit the bottom, anticipating a Reversal back to Resistance.  Used my £25 win as a Risk of £10 per point for a 2pt Stop for £20 going back up.

I'm not at all confident about this one.  Mistake?

 

@nit2wynit , i wouldnt keep changing the amount you use just because you had a win. hell while your still learning and playing on the live market, i would only be using $1 a point, so that u can get a better feel for it and not risk too much, yes if you get it right and it moves 10 points its only $10, but if it loses it could be $100 instead of $10. it prolongs your stay in the live market by letting you risk smaller amounts, ultimately,small regular gains will far outway massive 1 hit wonders mixed with big loses.

[Caseynotes]

[dmedin]

I don't have fear, I'm just stupid. 

 

[Caseynotes]

12 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I don't have fear, I'm just stupid. 

 

Developing a systematic approach counters the adverse affects of emotion; anxiety, stress, greed and fear. You really only need to be good at just one strategy. I never heard of anyone lasting who relied on their feelings, it's just not consistent because feelings are a rollercoaster of emotions.   

[nit2wynit]

3 hours ago, davidbrister said:

i wouldnt keep changing the amount you use just because you had a win.

Cheers for the advice. bud. but I did change doww to £1pp at the end there.

It's going to be a long road back up to 1k  but i'm focusing on simply getting it right and not worrying about making money now.  Just keeping it  

[Caseynotes]

44 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Cheers for the advice. bud. but I did change doww to £1pp at the end there.

It's going to be a long road back up to 1k  but i'm focusing on simply getting it right and not worrying about making money now.  Just keeping it  

Once you gain confidence working in the new environment (live) then you will slowly start increasing size. 

[dmedin]

48 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Cheers for the advice. bud. but I did change doww to £1pp at the end there.

It's going to be a long road back up to 1k  but i'm focusing on simply getting it right and not worrying about making money now.  Just keeping it  

 

I'm pretty sure this process of coming to terms with large monetary loss and 'dealing' with it (which I have also experienced so I'm not aiming it at you) is a symptom of gambling addiction or something of that nature.  I think we need help.

Edited July 12, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I'm pretty sure this process of coming to terms with large monetary loss and 'dealing' with it (which I have also experienced so I'm not aiming it at you) is a symptom of gambling addiction or something of that nature.  I think we need help.

The key is having a tested system that you know works over a number of trades, so then a losing trade just doesn't matter.

But to be able to do that you first need to build the system, stick to the system, and keep a record of your trades.

If the record of your trades shows the system doesn't work then you need to start over til you find one that does.

The other course of action is just to keep shooting from the hip til you're all out of bullets.

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

The key is having a tested system that you know works over a number of trades, so then a losing trade just doesn't matter.

But to be able to do that you first need to build the system, stick to the system, and keep a record of your trades.

If the record of your trades shows the system doesn't work then you need to start over til you find one that does.

The other course of action is just to keep shooting from the hip til you're all out of bullets.

 

I'm coming round to the conclusion that I can't make this work using any approach, and I just don't know how to do it.  I know markets are not 'random walk', they are manipulated by large institutional buyers and algorithms, but that doesn't mean everybody can learn how to make money from it.  Buy and hold is probably the only long-term viable option for 99% of people.

I'd rather be like one of the experts and 'advise' clients and sell training courses instead of actually gambling with my own money.

Edited July 12, 2019 by dmedin

[nit2wynit]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

I'm pretty sure this process of coming to terms with large monetary loss

I haven't lost a grand, I've gained an education at a cost of around £8 per day since i started;  I spend this much on Wine!!  It was necessary for me to lose I think as it was important to acquire emotional knowledge too.   My system is quite simple;  look for reversals or Support Resistance lines and try grab 5 points @£5 per point.  Using consolidation areas are my fave providing the points up and down are big enough.  I've said that when i first went live back in March my best move was on the Russell 2000.  Made about £250 over 3 hours just going up and down. 

I'll update my Aim and Wants right now with a clearer mind. 

I don't want to make millions, i want to make enough that I have free time each day/week/month ..... without wrrying about money.

I think for some it might be Gambling, but I've proved to myself if not others, that I can see a chart and read it.  Though i may have spoken out of frustration in the past, i'm certainly no Gambler.  I've just been foolish in anticipating too many drops.  Having a System and applying a System aren't the same thing.  Knowing to pull back instead of chase your failed idea time and time again isn't about a bad System, it's about not applying the system.

I've not been on today as needed a break.  Fresh head on me next week and i'll post my results of the week on Friday.

[dmedin]

This guy appears on IG TV a lot.  https://thesteadytrader.com/

Never seen him commit any of his own money.  You probably need to pay him an enormous consulting fee for that.

Check out his website.  It's pretty clear he's not making his money from trading on his own account.  Look at the products.  He makes money from analysis, not from committing his own money to his own trades.

(Apologies if this comes across as very rude.)

[Caseynotes]

This on swing trading strategies was published on IG just yesterday and may be of interest to those looking for ideas trading the medium time frames.

https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/swing-trading-strategies--a-beginners-guide-190712

 

[Guest davidbrister]

@nit2wynit, i like your thoughts about not losing, but gained an education, pretty positive take on the situation, good to hear

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

This on swing trading strategies was published on IG just yesterday and may be of interest to those looking for ideas trading the medium time frames.

https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/swing-trading-strategies--a-beginners-guide-190712

 

 

Theory is easy enough to understand, but putting it into practice isn't.  Just because a price breaks a previous high doesn't mean it won't stop and go into reverse.  To be honest I would rather see someone analyse charts in real time than present a completed pattern chart  (a hindsight chart).

[dmedin]

30 minutes ago, davidbrister said:

@nit2wynit, i like your thoughts about not losing, but gained an education, pretty positive take on the situation, good to hear

 

I tell myself the same thing every day about my student loan.  'I got screwed with massive debts but at least it trained my mind to think analytically.'  Oh the lies we use to console ourselves

 

[Caseynotes]

54 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Theory is easy enough to understand, but putting it into practice isn't.  Just because a price breaks a previous high doesn't mean it won't stop and go into reverse.  To be honest I would rather see someone analyse charts in real time than present a completed pattern chart  (a hindsight chart).

If it's certainty you want you're in the wrong shop. Analyzing charts in real time is a problem, charts are footprints though the 1 hour candle did open at 1:00pm real time and did close at 2:00pm real time. Maybe you mean tick charts or a price ladder, that's closer to real time.

What you should be looking for in a chart is who is currently in control and where next can they expect a challenge.

Doesn't matter what the time frame, there is a constant and eternal battle going on. As one side takes control expect them to probably retain control til the next point of contention.

The next point of contention is probably going to be at the site of a previous conflict because it's an obvious rallying point on the charts, you can't phone up all your mates and tell them where to meet, you just expect them to be there at the most likely place on the chart.

News event are fun because they give the wheel a thrust in whichever direction but otherwise just expect the expected.

When price arrives at that next point of contention be prepared to bail because you won't survive in a gun fight armed with just a knife sized account.

 

[dmedin]

@Caseynotes

 

Nah, not certainty.  I'd just love to see someone handling a chart in real time so I can analyse their thought processes.  It's fairly easy to learn TA and present analyses or opinions of charts with completed patterns (if I can do it anyone can) but trading in the moment is not easy.

[Guest lizhong]

On 14/01/2019 at 18:13, TrendFollower said:

@AbDXB1345,

You will not have perfected a strategy. Trust me. Even the professionals do not have a perfect strategy. 

What you possibly may have is an effective strategy based on your level of risk and money management.

The demo account is one thing but trading in the real markets is a different beast altogether which I am sure you are about to experience.

If someone said to me that your trading strategy would make a profit every single week or a trading strategy that would make a profit some weeks but losses on some weeks then which trading strategy would you select? Now if in the second example the profits far exceeded the losses and those profits were greater than the first strategy, now which would you pick? The point I am trying to make is that making losses is part of trading. One must accept them. Of course one wants to minimise those losses but they are part of trading. 

Totally agree, bro. 

[WallStFoxy]

9 hours ago, dmedin said:

Nah, not certainty.  I'd just love to see someone handling a chart in real time so I can analyse their thought processes.  It's fairly easy to learn TA and present analyses or opinions of charts with completed patterns (if I can do it anyone can) but trading in the moment is not easy.

@dmedin

Charts only show you what has happened, from that you have to analyse the most likely event going forward and to do that you need to understand how the markets work. There will always be at least two out comes and most often there are three, many traders only think in terms of up or down forgetting the sideways move yet in the middle there is almost always a sideways move if only for a day or two, this is the turning point. It may be a huge spike but that will retrace around 50% or more, it may be a series of failed attempts but you can see it in the charts. The most important thing to me is understanding the difference between a pull back in the trend and the trend itself. When you expect the market to do something you can wait for the market to come to you. I am going to show you on the FTSE chart over this week what I mean, starting now. This H4 chart shows me 3 things,  firstly the FTSE is in an up trend, secondly the FTSE is pulling back or retracing the previous rally (caused by trumps reversal at the G20) and thirdly it shows me two probable points for reversal (levels of support) if you wanted to go short here you would need to scalp inter-day on an M1 or M5 chart, because although it's going down it's expected to reverse, given you would want to hold your trade it looks like you would be better off buying a low. Sorry it's a bit long winded but you wanted a thought process. 👿

FTSE H4 Chart

Below is the FTSE last Friday on an M5 chart  ( I wish I was trading that and not the Dax last Friday) you can see it has reached the first level of support so we wait and see what happens Sunday night. If this turns up over Sunday/Monday we could use the low as a stop-loss in case I am wrong. I will follow this up for you tomorrow.  👿

FTSE M5 Chart

 

[WallStFoxy]

On 14/07/2019 at 01:39, Foxy said:

@dmedin

The FTSE has made a new low overnight then bounced back up past the pivot. I expect a pullback between 07:00 and 08:00 this may be a chance to get a good long entry, so lets see. 👿

P.S. I should make it clear this is not advise or a recommendation to trade, I am just showing a thought process using a live chart. 👿

 

 

[dmedin]

On 14/07/2019 at 01:39, Foxy said:

@dmedin

Charts only show you what has happened, from that you have to analyse the most likely event going forward and to do that you need to understand how the markets work. There will always be at least two out comes and most often there are three, many traders only think in terms of up or down forgetting the sideways move yet in the middle there is almost always a sideways move if only for a day or two, this is the turning point. It may be a huge spike but that will retrace around 50% or more, it may be a series of failed attempts but you can see it in the charts. The most important thing to me is understanding the difference between a pull back in the trend and the trend itself. When you expect the market to do something you can wait for the market to come to you. I am going to show you on the FTSE chart over this week what I mean, starting now. This H4 chart shows me 3 things,  firstly the FTSE is in an up trend, secondly the FTSE is pulling back or retracing the previous rally (caused by trumps reversal at the G20) and thirdly it shows me two probable points for reversal (levels of support) if you wanted to go short here you would need to scalp inter-day on an M1 or M5 chart, because although it's going down it's expected to reverse, given you would want to hold your trade it looks like you would be better off buying a low. Sorry it's a bit long winded but you wanted a thought process. 👿

FTSE H4 Chart

Below is the FTSE last Friday on an M5 chart  ( I wish I was trading that and not the Dax last Friday) you can see it has reached the first level of support so we wait and see what happens Sunday night. If this turns up over Sunday/Monday we could use the low as a stop-loss in case I am wrong. I will follow this up for you tomorrow.  👿

FTSE M5 Chart

 

 

 

Excellent!  Thanks

 

[WallStFoxy]

@dmedin

It's now just gone 07:30 and the FTSE has just tested 7500, it could go down to test 7493 as you can see on my chart but 08:00 could bring a rapid rally so if I wanted to trade this long I could buy now with a close stop just under 7500 or use a buy order just above 7510, personally I would choose the former because even it it reaches 7510 it could still test 7493. 👿

 

[WallStFoxy]

Now I would protect my trade by moving the stop 0.5p above your entry, I want it close to try and avoid getting closed out if it gets a bit volatile over the next hour or so. 👿 

P.S. I hope this has helped.

[TheGuru12]

Decent

[WallStFoxy]

@dmedin

I am sure you will have noticed, the bears sold off the spike this morning so I will continue for you. The FTSE has tested yesterdays close twice and although this looks very Bearish unless it breaks below yesterdays close I would look for a recovery above the pivot to have a second attempt. 👿

 

[nit2wynit]

A poor poor day today.  Statistical Correctness right on the money.

11 trades.  8 the wrong way.  -£48.  The weeks gains gone in 2 hours.  FTSE and Bent Crude.

 

Time for a break.

 

[trade247]

3 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

A poor poor day today.  Statistical Correctness right on the money.

11 trades.  8 the wrong way.  -£48.  The weeks gains gone in 2 hours.  FTSE and Bent Crude.

Time for a break.

whats the average time you hold a trade for? 

[nit2wynit]

3 minutes ago, cryptotrader said:

whats the average time you hold a trade for? 

Minutes.  I look for potential reversals and plot Support Resistance on the 1 minute chart.

Maybe i need a new approach.......or i could be distracted from looking for a bike to go ride on..........Now i'm chasing the losses.....


I can't even Win by going in the opposite direction to what I think lol

 

 

 

Oops there's another.  Been waiting for the drop.   Came when i went the other way lololol

Edited July 17, 2019 by nit2wynit