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Is spread betting for fools?


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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

It's obvious I've been playing too close with a 1 m chart.  I've changed to 10M with 1H for perspective.

 

Yep, the M1 is way too sensitive and the candlesticks don't form 'real' patterns, just 'noise'.

I find the H1 is the most sensitive chart that produces meaningful candlestick patterns.

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Moved to 10M and made £4.70 back :D

Small gains often.

There's a little detail i keep forgetting; I've changed my Stake size from £5pp to £0.5.  I was always playing for 5pt on the FTSE, but i'm failing to see that even at only £2.50 up it's a 5pt win.  I've been holding £5 in my favour only for it to reverse.  Of course it it; it's a 10pt move.

So back to small wins.  I've been playing a longer game, but not adjusting my stops to allow for larger up and down movements.

I'm confusing my Strategy and not applying it.

Edited by nit2wynit
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9 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Found a perfect setup on German 30  Got in at the perfect spot.  Shot up and took £25 profit.  Gave it all back and some with a trade running that might take another £5 off me.

Sorry to disappoint as usual but an impulse move on news is not a 'set up' (EU to recalc inflation targets Euro down  index up). It's just luck with fomo.

 

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39 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I agree, day trading (minute trading) is based largely on luck

And the init2winit cried "Oh Dear God!  Help Me!"

And the demin cried Oh tis "based largely on luck."

And God looked down and took pity and spoke thusly "A system means an actual system. Rules, diagrams, flowcharts. Not platitudes." From the Book of Cred verse 18.

https://www.crypto-world.gr/en/trading/cryptocreds-70-trading-advices/

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I'm clearly confused here.

Ascending Wedge into  Breakout.

What's the problem?

I know nothing about News on this.

I lost when I tried for a Pullback that didn't come.  Took £25 at the top and should have walked away.  3 times waiting for a 2nd run on it that did't come that eventually took back £40.

You're both telling me you wouldn't trade this before the breakout?

 


@dmedin @Caseynotes  So what does work for you then?

Edited by nit2wynit
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What I'm failing to grasp is the massive stops needed to trade on Large Timeframes.

Help me out here then.  Give me an example with only £950 inthe pot.


Instrument, Timeframe, ppp.

I will be greatly appreciative.

Simply scoffing at my posts is as futile as my Gambling style to gain profit.

 

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20 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

I mean have you considered looking at a much longer timeframes so say the '4 Hour' and 'Daily' my two favourites along with the 1 hour and try consistently making profits using those timeframes before even  looking at shorter timeframes. In theory (not always the case) it should be easier for your to trade on longer timeframes and start making profits and when you have learnt your trade then go to the lower timeframes. 

I'm going back to page one Trend.  Something is clearly wrong it what I'm doing.  

It's possible I have too little in the kitty to make this work.  Even at £0.50pp the stops are too great to assure profit for a longer timeframe.

I'd love to see someone give me an example of how to make this work with only £950 account.


Ideas on a postcard to:

Gamblers Anonymous
Bankruptville
Ignorance Street
.....

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The best advice anyone could give you in respect of trading on minute charts is DON'T DO IT.

I don't trade the 1M.  I just switch to that to place the trade and watch it.

I start at the daily, then the 4, then the 2 then the 1 then the 30 then the 15 then the 5 then 1.

I check candle colours and previous Support Resistance levels for places to Get In.

I don't see anything wrong at all with the previous German30 example.

Edited by nit2wynit
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I watch the trend on daily and weekly (rarely, monthly) and use 1 or 4 hours to time entry and exit.

Buy signal: current price > 5MA (or EMA) > 20MA (or EMA) > 50MA (or EMA)

Buy confirm/filters: increased volume, going in direction of trend

Sell signal: current price < 5MA (or EMA) < 20MA (or EMA) < 50MA (or EMA)

Sell confirm/filters: inreased volume, going in direction of trend

I also look at the RSI for divergences

1396180856_Oil-BrentCrude_20190718_15_03.thumb.png.46157e296346df93c977374ebfaf1e20.png

Edited by dmedin
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30 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

@Caseynotes  So what does work for you then?

Tis not scoff, I'm not keen on patterns on lower time frames, if you look hard enough you will see them everywhere though can't really see your wedge at all. I stick to dip buying between significant levels.

Price was moving sideways along S1, I was waiting for a pullback on the way to either to the pivot upwards or S2 downwards.

Price did move up and there was a pullback but without much continuation, price fell back to S1 when the news sent it parabolic upward. These moves are usually overdone and a steady correction is the most likely move to follow.

I see from your more recent post you mean a channel and are jumping around on the time frames to find it, on the start of the impulse move there was no channel or wedge, only a trendline of sorts (2nd chart) with a lower high failure before the news. I am reminded why I don't like patterns on lower time frames.

image.thumb.png.d614edc5a454ed9a8b08de4cc79f2102.png

image.thumb.png.2dec4b3b87cbda958c4c0445c63c149d.png

 

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I think i have a problem with how I see the charts patterns then.  Maybe i have them too bunched up, too stretched out.  I see clear up and down patterns everywhere i look.  I'm obviously fooling myself that this relates to good point moves when really it's maybe just a skewed chart.

Listen guys.  I know you've all posted.....but i am ready to learn now.

@Caseynotes to the chart above that is my Ascending wedge. the diagonal yellow line from the lowest point to the spike.

Yes it failed a 2nd breakout.  Lesson learned once again.  It's the very first time I actually waited till it broke the previous high after the spike.  but it failed to climb.

Went out for the afternoon and bought a bike.  I need a reboot.  Prologue, not page 1.


You've mentioned Academy.

Is this the best place to start from scratch?

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26 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I watch the trend on daily and weekly (rarely, monthly) and use 1 or 4 hours to time entry and exit.

Buy signal: current price > 5MA (or EMA) > 20MA (or EMA) > 50MA (or EMA)

Buy confirm/filters: increased volume, going in direction of trend

Sell signal: current price < 5MA (or EMA) < 20MA (or EMA) < 50MA (or EMA)

Sell confirm/filters: inreased volume, going in direction of trend

I also look at the RSI for divergences

I've no idea what those numbers mean.

I was supposed to spend the weekend researching and learning but it didn't happen.

My concern is this is your thread and you claim it's all a con lol.

You clearly have more knowledge than me so what's going wrong then?

I'm still struggling to accept why I have 80% success on the Demo regardless of Fear, i still made profits regularly.

Maybe I've just spent too much time on Gold and the FTSE and it's not been moving much over the day.

Something else to analyse I guess.

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4 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

@Caseynotes to the chart above that is my Ascending wedge. the diagonal yellow line from the lowest point to the spike.

Yes you are framing the chart to see what you want to see rather than just what's there, you can't see a wedge by just ignoring the prior peak ( 2).

The chart structure is saying;

1 tried to break lower from S1 - fail.

2 tried to break higher from S1 to the pivot, got a good distance then failed and fell back to S1.

3 tried the same move again and even worse failure.

4 try again, dismal.

the next most likely move was another try lower towards S2. But then came the news flash and the sudden move up, as usual it was overdone and price has since retraced 50% (white line).

If you look too hard at a chart you will eventually see whatever you want.

From the book of Cred verse 19.  After enough screen time, you should be able to look at a chart and within a very short time ascertain if there’s a trade there. It should scream at you. If it doesn’t, there’s probably nothing there.

image.thumb.png.7d0814475569f3bb6189e637189d605f.png

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33 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

You've mentioned Academy.

Is this the best place to start from scratch?

The Academy is good and won't take long to get through (recommended 1 month ago).

The Cred Study Guide is better and will take a little longer (recommended 2 weeks ago). do the guide first watch the videos later.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15c3rN15rkXldY8Te3GDG4NG7noaaoikydOoZQlElwXw/preview?pru=AAABaf3_sQE*PXVDTaKtvm5VtQcvpBug2w

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30 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Ahhh, it must be the Spread??  So it's a guide to minimum Stop level, but add the spread also, if you wish.?  :D

That's right, it's the spread.

Make sure you put a stop a decent distance beneath it otherwise you can find yourself being closed out almost immediately after placing the trade 😱

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56 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Ahhh, it must be the Spread??  So it's a guide to minimum Stop level, but add the spread also, if you wish.?  :D

I don't use this platform to trade on but are you sure this is right, if you've pressed buy to go long and the chart price is set to mid and is 3291, the spread is 18 points then 3291 plus half the spread (9 points) is the entry at 3300.

If you had set the chart price to bid instead of mid you would see the whole spread on entry as the chart price would be 3282 + 18 spread to give entry price 3300.

I don't know what that grey area underneath is. 

image.thumb.png.f001ef54515a4bc692fd4c785826462a.png

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4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

If you had set the chart price to bid instead of mid you would see the whole spread on entry as the chart price would be 3282 + 18 spread to give entry price 3300.

regardless of what it is set to, I know what those numbers represent.  The Limit line is my Buy price.

I'm pretty sure the Gray area, as maybe confirmed also by Dmedin, is what's left of the Spread.

this explains why so many times in the past I've been prematurely Stopped Out.  I didn't allow enough room at the bottom for the Spread.  It's disappointing that this Area disappears when the trade is Live.

@Caseynotes I'm sure Time is very important, but with regards to Latency....How much time are we actually talking about.?

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