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Posted (edited)

@nit2wynit

I've given up on what you might call day trading.  I try to swing trade and I will hold positions for a longer time frame too.   I understand this to be finding the main trend on a daily or weekly and then using hourly or four-hourly only for timing (never going against the prevailing trend).

In his book on TA Murphy recommends 'mastering inter-day trading before trying intra-day trading' and I've come to feel the same way.  Try to get good at smaller, less valuable trades over a longer time frame before moving into high-stakes ultra-short-term trading.

If someone can't do inter-day trading they are unlikely to be able to do intra-day trading. 

Edited by dmedin

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I just don't get it.  i can't see what's wrong........................

Been going Short on Gold since 1411.  Kept going up.  Lost £300.

Asia opened.  So said OK, I'll wait and see where it's going, but Follow the Trend Up.  Waited for the pull back..... Went DOWN 3 times, -£60

I Give Up.!!!

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3 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

I just don't get it.  i can't see what's wrong........................

Been going Short on Gold since 1411.  Kept going up.  Lost £300.

Asia opened.  So said OK, I'll wait and see where it's going, but Follow the Trend Up.  Waited for the pull back..... Went DOWN 3 times, -£60

I Give Up.!!!

:(

IMHO you should not have been shorting gold at all.

It is clearly in an uptrend, and this is clear from daily and weekly charts.

Day trading is a mug's game ...

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5 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

I just don't get it.  i can't see what's wrong........................

Did try on a number of occasions to point out the problems of your method (or lack of) but was very much a case of 'I can already do it, but just this ...'

Stick to one market, get to know it well.

Have one rules based entry trigger, get to know it well.

Same for exit trigger.

Gut feelings and fomo were never going to work.

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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Did try on a number of occasions to point out the problems of your method (or lack of) but was very much a case of 'I can already do it, but just this ...'

Stick to one market, get to know it well.

Have one rules based entry trigger, get to know it well.

Same for exit trigger.

Gut feelings and fomo were never going to work.

I've never doubted your advice @Caseynotes, unfortunately it's not how the human brain works.  We learn in increments.  I can read books, blogs etc. till the cows come home, but until it clicks....then it's just words.  I can look at the chart and tell you the points where i should have got in or out, but if my brain was fixed on a drop coming, I always ALWAYS try to beat it.  My greatest problem I've come to realise.

 

I know what happened yesterday now after sleeping on it.  In the grand scheme of things, Gold hadn't moved that much.  There was definitely an opportunity to make money, but at £20 per point the risks were too great, therefore my stops were too tight, and the 1 or 2 point fluctuations were putting me under too much.  The Instrument didn't suit me.  I got tied into it again and FOMO ruined me waiting for the big reversal that didn't come, though it looks like it's turned now hitting 1425 resistance while asleep.  I literally watched the spike while i was in a short.  Such a shame.  I knew it was coming.

I'll need to go back to my previous Demo successes to see what I've missed.  I've a feeling the likes of the FTSE OR ANY instrument that moves 10 points at a time at around £5 per point, is my aim.  This is where I had most of my success.  I'd take anything from 2-10 points from a move.  Ten small quick trades per day, making £10 on each.  Perfect for me.

There is a ratio of Margin vs Price per point that I've not nailed down.  but £20 per point and only 27 points of movement over 10 hours on Gold isn't it.  I max my margin on every trade, so long of the spread doesn't put me over £10.  So this is what I need to figure out.  Maximise Margin with adequate Stop, but Spread cost is only £10

Small bets today till I find the right Instrument to trade.  Can you recommend one that has decent point movement?

Thanks

 

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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

I've never doubted your advice @Caseynotes, unfortunately it's not how the human brain works.  We learn in increments.  I can read books, blogs etc. till the cows come home, but until it clicks....then it's just words.  I can look at the chart and tell you the points where i should have got in or out, but if my brain was fixed on a drop coming, I always ALWAYS try to beat it.  My greatest problem I've come to realise.

 

I know what happened yesterday now after sleeping on it.  In the grand scheme of things, Gold hadn't moved that much.  There was definitely an opportunity to make money, but at £20 per point the risks were too great, therefore my stops were too tight, and the 1 or 2 point fluctuations were putting me under too much.  The Instrument didn't suit me.  I got tied into it again and FOMO ruined me waiting for the big reversal that didn't come, though it looks like it's turned now hitting 1425 resistance while asleep.  I literally watched the spike while i was in a short.  Such a shame.  I knew it was coming.

I'll need to go back to my previous Demo successes to see what I've missed.  I've a feeling the likes of the FTSE OR ANY instrument that moves 10 points at a time at around £5 per point, is my aim.  This is where I had most of my success.  I'd take anything from 2-10 points from a move.  Ten small quick trades per day, making £10 on each.  Perfect for me.

There is a ratio of Margin vs Price per point that I've not nailed down.  but £20 per point and only 27 points of movement over 10 hours on Gold isn't it.  I max my margin on every trade, so long of the spread doesn't put me over £10.  So this is what I need to figure out.  Maximise Margin with adequate Stop, but Spread cost is only £10

Small bets today till I find the right Instrument to trade.  Can you recommend one that has decent point movement?

Thanks

 

Several points to make, see my thread Trade Planning and Testing and look at the prob chart on sequential losing trades, you can't beat the math and your account size can't cope with £20/point trade size, you are practically guaranteed to blow your account. 

Your stated goal from the beginning was to make a lot of money fast, it all went down hill from there which was inevitable, your goal meant you were practically guaranteed to blow your account. 

You say above that with hindsight you can see what you should have done, not really.

What you should have done was make your first goal survival. Learn to read chart structure and to anticipate and react, not try to predict. And not to just gamble but develop a rule based plan, if this, this and this happen, then I do that. Then test it to make sure it works, then test live on min position size to make sure it works.

Demo has not been good to you, you can't have real 'success' on demo, there is no such thing. Demo if misused just encourages gambling but without the consequences, until you go live. The same cycle keeps repeating itself. Once you've used demo to learn the platform keep off it.

You tried ftse before and had some success with it but then went chasing all the big movers only to get in late, there's another lesson right there 🙂

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

You tried ftse before and had some success with it but then went chasing all the big movers only to get in late, there's another lesson right there

Yep.  That's pretty much it in a nutshell.  £20 per point on a instrument that moves very little is too much risk as i wasn't willing to add a £100 point Stop.  But that's not what went wrong yesterday.  It's the same ole Beat the Reversal story again.  Other than the spike, Gold did a very slow dance with me over the entire day on in to 1.30 this morning. 

It's simple now.  News said it was going to Drop.  I didn't think it was.  Missed the spike.  Then chased the Reversal for 10 hours.  It's not my stops that got me as I mostly ended when they went the wrong way, coz it kept going up!.
Lesson Learned.  Tick.

Guess my new bike and Xbox will need to wait a bit longer.

So, anything Instruments to recommend then that may suit my goals?  Volatility etc.

What are the best Daily Movers where I can take 5 points here and there at £5 per point?

I think I've basically got tired of looking thru the Instrument panel.  I should have Invested in a screener from Day 1.


You're dead Right about the Demo.  @davidbrister said the very same thing that spending too much time on it is futile.

 

 

Losing money is easy.  I've said I know why I did because I have several A4 pages of notes going back to March telling me in Pink Neon Marker that I keep doing the same thing; Trying to catch the Reversal instead of Trend Following.  I've also explained where I learned this approach; I simply haven't mastered it.

So far a £1000 education on how I'm not keeping to the Rules.  OK.  Got my Fail Badge well and truly earned.  Let's turn this around.

:D


 

Edited by nit2wynit

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3 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

So far a £1000 education on how I'm not keeping to the Rules.  OK.  Got my Fail Badge well and truly earned.  Let's turn this around.

Countertrending and playing reversals is specialised and needs experience because reversals are relatively rare or at least far less common than continuation. After a spike and flag or pennant then continuation was the higher prob outcome and that's what should have been anticipated and reacted to once seen.

Trying to second guess the market is a losing game, instead learn to spot when an attempt to reverse fails and is revealed to be just another pullback, 'buy the failed dip' (or sell the failed rally) should be the number 1 strategy in the playbook.

I would forget about a screener and leave the illiquid shares alone and just stick to ftse or it's pumped up cousin dax.

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43 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Demo has not been good to you, you can't have real 'success' on demo, there is no such thing. Demo if misused just encourages gambling but without the consequences, until you go live. The same cycle keeps repeating itself. Once you've used demo to learn the platform keep off it.

 

 

Is the demo platform different from the live platform?  I.e. deliberately misleading?

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Just now, dmedin said:

 

Is the demo platform different from the live platform?  I.e. deliberately misleading?

no, it's the same, it's you that's different. No risk, no emotion, no consequences.

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Is the demo platform different from the live platform?  I.e. deliberately misleading?

Just the Account balance lol

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@Caseynotes do you have any points to make on Gold right now.  For my last trade on it, I've placed one for £6pp with a 1pt Stop.  Just to see if i have any clue at all about what I'm looking at.

Appears to be a Descending Bull Flag.  I've a small £6pp Short with a £6 Stop just above resistance.

Tell me what you see please and what you'd do here?  I won't be trading this today.  Call it Therapy.

for what it's worth, it's looking like it might go Up! :O



Flag.thumb.jpg.0ba0f77f3ff0cd103deee103c0efbe08.jpg

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2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Tell me what you see please and what you'd do here? 

On the M15 I see a spike and bull channel and now consolidation, I would box off the upper and lower reaches of the consolidation  and wait for a break which might be in either direction. In that situation the break lower to retest the top of the spike has the slightly higher probability.

 

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OK, so fresh approach applying the rules.  Smaller stake.  Deeper breaths.  Clear Chart patterns.

 

Smaller stake of £6 per point with only 1 stop risk.  If it's wrong it's wrong.  This did drop and I was up £15, but it was at the point of either previous reversal or pull back, so I adjusted my Stop to make sure no matter what, the trade cost me Zero!  

No loss incurred.

What should I have done?  Took the £15, or let it ride for bigger profit assuming it's a small pull back?  Let it fail and be happy it cost me nothing?

What would you all advise or have advised?

 

New.thumb.jpg.16e01b643c8dfba3c940d7d41d2c0b5e.jpg



 

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Also^^^^

If this pattern is a Descending Wedge, when should I get out, if at all?  Is it likely to go back up?  What is the statistic?

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2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

What would you all advise or have advised?

I think for anyone not to sure of in-trade management the best solution is to concentrate on identifying good entries and entry execution and just fire a bracket order at it  so a market order entry with approp stop loss and a take profit at 2:1 and let it sink or swim. You need to get your entries right first, later you can work on how best to manage it.

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8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Also^^^^

If this pattern is a Descending Wedge, when should I get out, if at all?  Is it likely to go back up?  What is the statistic?

The strongest line on the chart is the horizontal support line, horizontals are always stronger than diagonals and for a short the most recent low is the FTA (first trouble area) where you should consider bailing if price can't swiftly break through.

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2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

The strongest line on the chart is the horizontal support line, horizontals are always stronger than diagonals and for a short the most recent low is the FTA (first trouble area) where you should consider bailing if price can't swiftly break through.

Yes I see that.  Support at around 1419.  I have it marked.  Struggling now at 1421 area.  I'll let it fail now if it goes up.  Will cost me nothing but time; which is more valuable than money :D

I've changed as I should have, from making money, to Not losing any.

It's taken a while, but a bit at a time, it's going in.  Thank you for continually taking the time Casey.  Really appreciate it.

However, I anticipate more losses to come before it's in my bones.

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I took the £25 when it hit the bottom, anticipating a Reversal back to Resistance.  Used my £25 win as a Risk of £10 per point for a 2pt Stop for £20 going back up.

I'm not at all confident about this one.  Mistake?

 

Mistake.thumb.jpg.7e8f5ff77ace54c057dbae9e0e92e936.jpg

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Posted (edited)

I suppose my 1st mistake is asking if it is a Mistake? :D and not being Confident.

I got out for £2.60 profit.  It's simply not moving quick enough.

On to the next chart.

Ahhh dear.

 

Edited by nit2wynit

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I'm not at all confident about this one.  Mistake?

Yes.

Of course, if you have no confidence it's because you have no real reasoning or validation for taking the trade and if you don't have that how will you know when the trade idea becomes invalid, you've gone back to just punting 🤨

When on demo every time you get away with it reinforces bad choices and when you don't get away with it it's just forgotten because there are no real consequences, and then you go back to live and suddenly there are very real  consequences.

Edited by Caseynotes

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But I have 80% success on the Demo Casey!

Anyway, Gold, I figured it's foolish to Go long while it's going in a Down trend so went straight back in at 1418 to Short.

Took £10 off me.  Time for a break.  Still £20 up :D

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8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

But I have 80% success on the Demo Casey!

Anyway, Gold, I figured it's foolish to Go long while it's going in a Down trend so went straight back in at 1418 to Short.

Took £10 off me.  Time for a break.  Still £20 up :D

How many times have you been round this block, demo - live - demo - live ...,  success - failure - success - failure ....

Again, there is no such thing as success on demo, not 80% not any %.

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2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

How many times have you been round this block, demo - live - demo - live ...,  success - failure - success - failure ....

Casey I've not been on the Demo for 3 weeks........I don't keep going back to the Demo!

But 80% success rate must count for something?  That's not 1 time i tried the Demo, that 2 months.  Fear aside.  Same charts, same Instruments, Same 2k account.

I've proved time and time again.  Not sure why you have such a stance on it.  The only difference as we've discussed is the Emotion attached. ergo; get over that, then proving success Live should theoretically be the same as the Demo.

Like I've said, Fear, Emotion aside.  I've clearly not got a hold of my emotion Live.  Especially when it comes to FOMO.

Maybe i was lucky this morning on the Gold chart.  Maybe i didn't notice the down trend, or the consolidating wedge.  Unfortunate that I changed from £20pp to £6 otherwise I'd be looking at closer to £100 win, but i still would have only risked 1pt at Resistance level.  I couldn't take another £20 or £40 loss.  So now the stakes are smaller.


No idea where Gold is going so going to leave it now.

Cheers.

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Gold is in an uptrend so you'd be wiser to use dips as an opportunity to buy.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Gold is in an uptrend so you'd be wiser to use dips as an opportunity to buy.

It has been, but stuck at around previous resistance of 1425 for 12 hours!  I no longer assume it's an Up Trend.

Speculation suggests another spike soon.  Others say a Drop.  i think at this point it's a waiting game till it's proves a direction.

How are you doing?  Making progress?

Edited by nit2wynit

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Jeeeez too busy typing.  Anyone catch that drop?? :O

 

Knew it was there somewhere.

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5 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Casey I've not been on the Demo for 3 weeks........I don't keep going back to the Demo!

But 80% success rate must count for something?  That's not 1 time i tried the Demo, that 2 months.  Fear aside.  Same charts, same Instruments, Same 2k account.

I've proved time and time again.  Not sure why you have such a stance on it.  The only difference as we've discussed is the Emotion attached. ergo; get over that, then proving success Live should theoretically be the same as the Demo.

Like I've said, Fear, Emotion aside.  I've clearly not got a hold of my emotion Live.  Especially when it comes to FOMO.

Maybe i was lucky this morning on the Gold chart.  Maybe i didn't notice the down trend, or the consolidating wedge.  Unfortunate that I changed from £20pp to £6 otherwise I'd be looking at closer to £100 win, but i still would have only risked 1pt at Resistance level.  I couldn't take another £20 or £40 loss.  So now the stakes are smaller.


No idea where Gold is going so going to leave it now.

Cheers.

80% success on demo proves nothing, 100% failure on live proves everything which is why I have this stance. 

Entering trades with no real reason or rules based plan is just punting and will fail (see the connection?).

Emotions can't yet be surgically removed, they are yours to keep, which is why you need a rules based plan (full circle).

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Entering trades with no real reason or rules based plan is just punting and will fail (see the connection?).

I've thanked you for your input and advice, so confused now.


I have had reasons.  I have had a plan.  I don't just look at a chart and go Buy/Sell.

I've told you many times.  I have a bad habit of anticipating Reversals.  Yesterday was a prime example.

However, i've been 100% right on Gold this morning, but hesitated.

It's just dropped.

I now anticipate another rally, but I could be wrong.  I'm in 1pp Long.  3pt stop.

Edited by nit2wynit

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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

I've thanked you for your input and advice, so confused now.


I have had reasons.  I have had a plan.  I don't just look at a chart and go Buy/Sell.

I've told you many times.  I have a bad habit of anticipating Reversals.  Yesterday was a prime example.

However, i've been 100% right on Gold this morning, but hesitated.

It's just dropped.

Ah right, so you knew what the data release at 1:30 was going to be then, why didn't you tell the rest of us what the figures were going to be?

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